Set the Cards' rotation for the next month
Time to pretend you're TLR/Dave Duncan and play "Set The Rotation For the Next Month."
My original interest in this exercise was selfish. I'm taking the family to one of the four Cards-Nats games on 8/26 - 8/29; the last two times I saw the 'Birds in DC, I got Jeff Suppan ('05) and Todd Wellemeyer ('08). This time, if I'm shelling out $$ to take the whole family to the park, I'd really like to see Adam, Carp, or Jaime.
So I've tried to determine how Tony will set up the rotation for the next month, starting with the Florida series. This has given me a new appreciation for how tricky this aspect of a manager's job can be. There are three big challenges here:
- Limit the starts by our dicey #5 -- whether it's Suppan, Lohse, or Hawksworth;
- Try to give Jaime some extra rest to re-charge his batteries and keep his arm from falling off next year (and maybe also try to get Carp and/or Adam some extra days to help them for the stretch run);
- Put our best pitchers on the mound for the two pivotal series against the Reds (August 9-11, and Sept. 3-5).
Here are my two scenarios, after the jump:
|
Date |
Bad Guys |
Scenario A |
Scenario B |
|
Fri, 8/6 |
Wainwright |
||
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Sat, 8/7 |
Westbrook |
||
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Sun, 8/8 |
Number 5 |
Number 5 |
|
|
Mon, 8/9 |
Carpenter |
Carpenter |
|
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Tue, 8/10 |
Garcia |
Garcia |
|
|
Wed, 8/11 |
Wainwright |
Wainwright |
|
|
Thu, 8/12 |
OFF |
|
|
|
Fri, 8/13 |
Westbrook |
Number 5 |
|
|
Sat, 8/14 |
Carpenter |
Westbrook |
|
|
Sun, 8/15 |
Garcia |
Carpenter |
|
|
Mon, 8/16 |
OFF |
|
|
|
Tue, 8/17 |
Wainwright |
Garcia |
|
|
Wed, 8/18 |
Westbrook |
Wainwright |
|
|
Thu, 8/19 |
OFF |
|
|
|
Fri, 8/20 |
Carpenter |
Westbrook |
|
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Sat, 8/21 |
Garcia |
Carpenter |
|
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Sun, 8/22 |
Wainwright |
Garcia |
|
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Mon, 8/23 |
Westbrook |
Wainwright |
|
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Tue, 8/24 |
Number 5 |
Number 5 |
|
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Wed, 8/25 |
Carpenter |
Westbrook |
|
|
Thu, 8/26 |
Garcia |
Carpenter |
|
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Fri, 8/27 |
Wainwright |
Garcia |
|
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Sat, 8/28 |
Westbrook |
Wainwright |
|
|
Sun, 8/29 |
Number 5 |
Number 5 |
|
|
Mon, 8/30 |
Carpenter |
Westbrook |
|
|
Tue, 8/31 |
Garcia |
Carpenter |
|
|
Wed, 9/1 |
Wainwright |
Garcia |
|
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Thu, 9/2 |
OFF |
|
|
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Fri, 9/3 |
Westbrook |
Wainwright |
|
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Sat, 9/4 |
Carpenter |
Westbrook |
|
|
Sun, 9/5 |
Garcia |
Carpenter |
Scenario A (which I guess would be the more conventional one, since it keeps our #1, Wainwright, on the most regular schedule), has these advantages:
- Limits Suppan/Lohse to just 3 starts;
- Jaime, Adam, and Carp all get an extra day of rest before a tough stretch of 13 straight games beginning with the Giants on Aug. 20.
Disadvantages? Wainwright wouldn't pitch in the last series against the Reds (but they would have to face Garcia twice). A pretty big disadvantage, I would say.
What about Scenario B? Advantages:
- Adam and Carp would bookend both series against the Reds, which strikes me as ideal;
- Jaime still gets an extra day of rest; meanwhile Adam would get TWO extra days of rest before facing the Brewers on the 18th, and an extra day of rest before leading off the series against the Reds on Sept. 3 (dude is on track for a career high in IP, we need to keep him fresh); and Carp would get an extra day's rest before his starts against both the Cubs and the Giants.
Disadvantages of Scenario B? Well, you'd have to run the fifth starter out there one more time (against the Cubs on Friday the 13th, no less) -- but I think the extra rest you'd give your two horses, Carp and Wainwright, before the final month (which has just one off day) might be worth it.
Thoughts? Anything I've missed? Ways to improve upon either of these scenarios? Let me hear you, fellow VEBers.
I'd probably opt for Scenario B. Meanwhile, it looks like I'll be buying tickets for either the 26th or 27th. :-)
9 comments
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4 recs |
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Comments
i think we should wait until after loshe shows signs of being able to get AA hitters out.
If that happens…. Idk if that will ever happen… But I have some hope. Right now I would rather have lance lynn come up and pitch in the 5 spot. And have loshe ready if lynn sucks or if jaime’s arm falls off like some ppl smarter than me think its going to.
by rumors on Aug 7, 2010 12:21 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Two things worth considering
The first is how much strain TLR and Duncan are willing to put on Garcia. Remember, this kid is coming back from Tommy John, and he is going to be approaching what might be an innings cap. Tony might want to find a way to skip the kid once or twice, so that he might be more valuable in October. But I don’t really know their thoughts on this.
Second thought is how the Reds are doing. If the Redlegs crater (looking increasingly unlikely), Tony might adjust his lineup a bit to rest his aces.
Overall, I agree with your assessment, and think Scenario A is most likely. Wainwright is the ace this year (with Carpenter looking like a very, very solid option 1A). He will give his main horses the chance to work, and try to hide the weak sisters of the rotation where possible.
I could go look at numbers
but just gut feeling- it seems like our starters have all thrown a lot of innings. I wouldn’t mind a little bit quicker trigger in pulling them in lieu of the ‘pen for a stretch here. We haven’t really utilized a “long reliever” much this season (I really can’t think of any 3 inning ’pen outings) but it seems like we could start doing a little more of that with Hawksworth having some starter stamina in the ’pen.
either one of those scenarios look good to me.
great post, BTW
Albert's grand slam, 7/3/09
Waino's CG, 7/4/10
@zoomzoomj88
Fire Tony LaRussa
The Cardinals need to hire a baserunning coach. Hello, Larry Walker.
Welcome back, DCRedbird.
You’ve been missed.
Wonderful post.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

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