Same Old Story, Well Wishes and Batted Balls
by azruavatar on Aug 29, 2010 2:02 AM EDT
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PrintOne of the difficult parts of having multiple writers for the site is that you have to try and be original with 3-4 other people. The easy and apparent narratives have probably already been written about in prose more eloquent than what I can muster. So I have few words for yet another disturbing loss in a heretofore unseen fashion.
Kyle Lohse gets saddled with 11 hits and 8 runs in 5 innings. I've reached my limit of Kyle Lohse quotes about how he's "finally found his rhythm" or he "just needs to get the feel of the game back". His calling card was being a durable pitcher who would put up a 4.50 FIP year in and year out. He's become a pitcher prone to short starts due to injury or blow out. It's important not to overreact and say that he's "finished" but something has to change. Soon.
Meanwhile, Mike MacDougal allows 6 runs in 1.2 innings of work to take the game from 8-5 Nationals and put it firmly out of reach. In Joe Strauss's recap of the game, he wrote:
The Cardinals remained in touch with the lead until reliever Mike MacDougal collapsed during a six-run eighth inning extended by his looping high throw to first base on an ordinary-looking ground ball. Unnerved or just vulnerable, MacDougal failed to finish the inning, as a walk and five hits compounded his fielding gaffe.
My alternate theory of this situation is that Mike MacDougal is a reliever who was banished to the minors by multiple teams for having terrible command and control. He projects like a reliever who is only marginally better than replacement level and has played like a player who is far worse than this. Basically, he's just not very good on his best days and he's quite awful on his worst. But he's a veteran with saves, therefore he is a valuable asset to the pen even while Fernando Salas has made a good start on earning a set of wings like Ryan Bingham in Up In The Air.
I think MacDougal, among others, perfectly encapsulates the utter frustration that I have with the Cardinals both this year and in seasons past. It's not the initial act of picking up Aaron Miles that's so disheartening. It's not that Nick Stavinoha starts the season on the team and Allen Craig is sent down. It's that when those players show their true colors, the team is categorically unwilling to cut them loose. They cling to the false hope that Mike MacDougal will acquire some kind of fastball command. The conviction that Aaron Miles can continue to loop dribblers through the infield.
I know there are smart people in the front office. I have a hard time coming up with any name that I think is unaware of modern analysis or player projection. Instead, it's the black side of being "loyal" to players. I think the Cardinals, as an organization, conduct themselves with the utmost respect toward their players (with a few exceptions) and this is eminently commendable. They take it to an illogical extreme, however, by retaining players who are bad or hurt and continuing to provide them opportunities to the detriment of the rest of the team.
This year we've seen it with guys like Aaron Miles over Tyler Greene and Mike MacDougal over Fernando Salas. In the past, we've seen an obviously injured Isringhausen remain on the active roster. We've seen Chris Duncan remain on the major league roster after making it painfully apparent that he could no longer drive the ball. The inability to cut bait from bad situations or poor performers has cost the Cardinals. They've certainly had a good helping of bad luck and crappy run distribution this year but that doesn't justify the bad decision making we've seen with the roster management this season.
8 runs from a continually ineffective Kyle Lohse. 6 runs from Mike MacDougal, closer of yore. It's not surprising and that's unfortunate.
* * *
This team needs Colby Rasmus badly both for outfield defense and for run production. The lineup is just a different beast with him in it. Get well soon, Colby.
* * *
I want to have a brief conversation about batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and batted ball profiles for a moment. I get the impression that there's some misunderstanding regarding BABIP, how predictive it is and how to identify a "lucky" player.
First of all, current season BABIP is not a good predictor of future BABIP. Two seasons isn't very good either. With BABIP you need a large data set (thousands of batted balls) to indicate that a player has an ability that is outside of the major league average BABIP. The default assumption, not knowing anything about the batted ball profile, is that the future BABIP performance of any player will be near the league average (~.300).
Now, a BABIP above or below .300 is not necessarily lucky or unlucky even in a small sample size sense. You have to evaluate BABIP in the context of the number of groundballs, line drives and flyballs that a player hits. Each type of hit falls at a certain rate on average. It's VERY difficult to prove statistically that a player has the ability to out hit the BABIP for a certain type of hit. What they can do is hit more line drives than say groundballs. Different batted ball profiles or percentages will have different expected BABIPs.
Let's discuss this in the context of line drives. LDs are hits approximately 73% of the time -- that type of batted ball has the highest frequency of being a hit. If a player is hitting line drives that fall for hits more or less often than 73%, it is likely some form of luck. This is luck in relation to a specific kind of batted ball. In the aggregate, you can look at BABIP and LD% for a quick and dirty look at whether a player has been lucky. Take the LD%, add 12% to it, and that is roughly how the player should have performed on batted balls to date.
So if a player hits 18% line drives he should have a BABIP around .300. If he has a .360 BABIP, this does not necessarily indicate he was lucky. Read that again: a BABIP substantially different from league average is not an automatic indicator of luck. If that .360 BABIP player has hit 24% line drives, than he's performing in line with our expectations for his batted ball profile.
Is a 24% line drive sustainable in the long term? That's a different question and not one I'm looking to answer. The point is that you have to look at the BABIP in relation to the batted ball profile to determine whether performance to date on balls in play has been lucky or unlucky. For future BABIP, you should expect major league players to perform at or near league average. You need a large amount of batted ball data to (statistically) prove that a player has a special ability to out- or under-perform league average BABIP.
That's as un-mathy as I can make that topic. If you want to get into variance and the percent we should regress BABIP toward league average.
* * *
Game time is 12:35pm. Let's hope we can get a win. I'd like a particularly undramatic one please.
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Bravo.
After reading a piece on Amazin Avenue (I think VEP linked it once) about the misunderstanding of BABIP (that I have been guilty of), I like reading stuff like this. 12% is a nice solid number that I can definitely use and go off to make quick and more accurate evaluations of a player’s performance. So, thanks Az.
Chris Carpenter for Manager
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker, on Jason Motte
I suppose many people bagged out early last night
and didn’t see Anderson getting ‘bush league’ run over at the plate.
While it is not at the level of Cueto’s kick-boxing, my hope is that it will fire the Birds up to go on a rampage tomorrow, uh, today.
I saw the tail-end
of the postgame interview w/ Anderson….but I didn’t get to see the play. He sounded pissed, Jim Hayes sounded pissed, Jack Clark sounded pissed.
Anyone have a link or more description?
video
here
announcers do a pretty good job of explaining the rule, but don’t address the contact much.
Chris Carpenter for Manager
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker, on Jason Motte
wow
in a lop sided game thats uncalled for…Morgan is a goon…not sure if you have seen the Morgan throwing a baseball incident..
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
by punchinjudy on Aug 29, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
actually no one has seen the throw
so if u have video please share
i think him being posssibly being suspended (7games) for the incident at Philly is ridiculous…from what i read the fan that was injured wasnt even interviewed by mlb..wtf?!
no video of incident…and there have been testimonials (by actual dreaded philly fans) that say morgan did nothing wrong
its absolutely ridiculous in the type of suspension MLB can issue….one w/ cueto w/ millions of cameras and one with morgan with zero footage
as for the last out of the game…i thought what morgan did was hilarious and in his own right, faking a throw to the stands after he caught the final out
by guillermozeliak on Aug 29, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
wow
in a lop sided game thats uncalled for…Morgan is a goon…not sure if you have seen the Morgan throwing a baseball incident..
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
by punchinjudy on Aug 29, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Great Post
Thanks for all the effort you guys put in.
I love the stat lessons, every day’s a learning day!
Regarding BABIP
The LD + .120 rule is terrible at predicting future BABIP for several reasons:
1) The amount of line drives a player hits is a very subjective stat (for obvious reasons) and thus LD% has huge error bars. Worse yet, those error bars often include consistent bias due to a players home ballpark.
2) Each player has a different expected performance by batted ball type. Pujols’ career BABIP on LDs is .804, while Pete Happy’s is .731. Conversely, Pujols’ career BABIP on FBs is .077, while Pete Happy’s is .125.
I would bet that the variation on BABIP between batted ball types is higher than the overall variation on BABIP.
3) Those are the theoretical reasons, the proof is here:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/whats-the-best-babip-estimator/
ldBABIP predicts future BABIP worse than anything else! Including previous years BABIP. The best BABIP predictors are the fullblown xBABIP, with quick xBABIP and Marcel’s BABIP not to far behind (I would bet that Marcel’s xBABIP would be the best).
Now I agree with you that LD% + .120 is better at saying what a players current BABIP should be than his current BABIP, but it’s a bad idea to use to predict future BABIP.
Information overload!
So if you wanted to predict future BABIP you’d look at something like the career BABIP if there’s enough history to back it up?
And the LD + 0.120 is ok to look at say someone’s current BABIP for the season, and be able to tell if they’ve been lucky or just hot?
Pretty much, although I would really never even use LD + .120
You can use the Hardball Times xBABIP calculator
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/simple-xbabip-calculator/
Which will be much better at predicting future BABIP and describing past BABIP than LD + .120 or single season BABIP.
by vivaelpujols on Aug 29, 2010 4:16 AM EDT up reply actions
That simple calculator is one of the least user friendly
spreadsheets I’ve seen. I’ve used it on several occasions and I’ve always thought it was a terrible UI.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
Haha, well I've never used it
But I’ve seen it quoted everywhere so I assumed it was good.
by vivaelpujols on Aug 29, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I prefer wGrit+
much more accurate.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 29, 2010 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions
With regards to
#2, what point do we consider that to be a sustainable or real skill? I’d think the # of batted balls would need to be very high and we should be heavily regressing toward the league average rate on balls in play.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
something's wrong with this team
hopefully someone figures it out fast
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2010 5:17 AM EDT reply actions
They're not that good?
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Aug 29, 2010 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You tweeted this to me
And I didn’t respond because I didn’t think I could in 140 characters BUT I don’t agree with your conclusion. A team that is “not that good” would not have a +97 run differential at this point in the season. Furthermore, they are 4 games over .500 against teams with a .500 or worse record and 7 games over against teams with winning records. I think if you watch the team on a regular basis you see a team that plays better baseball against better baseball teams.
Thus, I think they are a team that lacks mental focus on a consistent basis. A couple of stats demonstrate this for me. First, in Leach’s blog recently, he showed that the Cards are scoring alot of 9th inning runs. Scoring this many runs against very good relief pitchers shows me that they can grind out good at bats when they feel the urgency to do so. For some reason they don’t show that urgency early in games against crappy starters. Lack of mental focus.
The second stat that underscored the lack of consistent focus was the amount of errors made and unearned runs given up against sub-.500 teams as detailed in Goold’s Bird Land blog here. This team has allowed almost twice as many unearned runs to sub-.500 teams as they have to winning teams. Lack of mental focus.
Finally, we all know the Cards have lost many runners on the bases this year. While I don’t have the data to support my impressions, I think that most of those extra outs have been against the lesser teams as well. Lack of mental focus.
Thus, despite the bad roster decisions on the margins and despite the key injuries, this team is still better than its record and the record shows that they are still a playoff contender. Therefore, I don’t agree with your assessment that they are “not that good”. What I see is a team that is not as focused as it should be. Why they lack consistent focus is the real question to me.
"The Helping Phriendly Book it seems contained the ancient secrets of eternal joy and neverending splendor. The trick was to surrender to the flow." Phish - The Lizards
you can then sum it up as
not playing well, no matter what their potential is
i agree a player can theoretically fix his mental approach faster than he can change his bmi
but a lot of the focus issue is the players and a lot is environmental
consistent puzzling decisions by management certainly would affect me, if i was playing
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
Agreed on labeling them as "not playing well"
Don’t agree with the “not that good” label.
"The Helping Phriendly Book it seems contained the ancient secrets of eternal joy and neverending splendor. The trick was to surrender to the flow." Phish - The Lizards
by indakind on Aug 29, 2010 11:08 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm not saying they're bad
They’re just, with all of the down years on offense, nagging injuries, and sans a third baseman, not the 95 win team a lot of us were expecting.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
All the high-powered stats
that indicate that its “only a matter of time” miss out that this team has many flaws that drag down its performance. I would add to all of the above that roster construction is a huge issue. We have so many 25th players on the roster, its almost funny. Basically you have three of the top 10 pitchers in the league, three of the top hitters (I count Luddy/Jay) and then nothing. Too many easy outs every game and every 4th and 5th game since Penny/Lohse got hurt is an adventure on the mound. All the regression to the mean in the world is not going ot fix this.
Having said that, we might sneak in to the playoffs with just those three pitchers. Let’s go Cards
Just win
only 20% of the roster is via dfa/waiver
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
For fun how many of the following players would be picked up if DFA'd?
McDougal, larue, suppan, feliz, miles, schumaker, stavinoha, winn, reyes
I assume Reyes would get a bite, anyone else?
Just win
On a championship caliber team...
Winn is a reserve outfielder, Skip is a lefty bat off the bench and a play-anywhere type, and LaRue could sneak in as backup catcher if the frontline guy was really durable. The rest are clearly not good enough to take up a roster spot. Reyes is injured.
Fire La Russa!
struggling on Schu
if this is the new normal on him, can’t see anyone paying him to play 2B even as a backup. Maybe at league minimum as a fifth outfielder but most teams have better options in the minors. Maybe on a playoff team looking for some experience.
Winn’s been dumped by yanks (and in this scenario) by us. how many more will give hima shot?
Just win
scrappy should do some 3rd base
his long term hopes lie in playing multiple positions
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
Good call
Pay him $20 million to pitch somewhere else the next two years
Do you remember that spelling bee you won in the first grade? Rock? "R-O-K"?
by jd is legend on Aug 29, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I have to argue against
the “every 4th and 5th game”part. Westy has given us several good starts an one bad one. And here’s the rub, we’ve seen all of our starts have bad outtings lately, so it’s not just Westy, and I don’t think having Luddy was going to pull us out of some of those. We lost those games for him with shoddy D and bullpen blow-ups. I may be the only one that thinks that acquiring him was a good, but very unpopular, move. I’d rather have not lost Luddy, but we couldn’t keep throwing Soup/Hawk with Lohse. That would’ve been disaster looking for a place to happen. Granted Soup has actually been not as bad as I thought, but I sure as hell didn’t want to depend on him the rest of the way.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Aug 29, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
agree, but
we needed to keep lud and add a pitcher
not swap out
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
couldn't agree more
6 plus players and 19 guys you don’t want at the plate or on the mound in critical situations does not a championship team make.
by chinmusician45 on Aug 29, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
we better hope it does
with so much money committed to Holliday, and hopefully Pujols and Waino, we better get used to seeing more than our fair share of shitty players
Their pythag is projected at 89 wins
They’re on pace to win 88.
They are who they are.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Then curse
this calculator! Or me.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
I really can't stand MacDougall
couldn’t before last night, and I can’t now. I can see that there are multiple positions where we don’t really have any talented young players (3B, OF) in the minors anymore and where it’s probably arguable that adding a veteran (as we have this year) is worthwhile. The bullpen, however, is not one. Salas has been excellent this year, when given a chance. Josh Kinney’s done a solid job in AAA and as a ROOGY is probably better than MacDougall. Why the fuck he is on my team I have no idea.
I don’t think I’ve ever actively disliked a player on the Cardinals quite this much since Adam Kennedy was here. I really hope after last night they can his ass once Motte is back.
I kinda felt like this road trip in Washington was our last big chance to make up ground on Cincinatti. Although we should hopefully split the series 2-2 with Waino vs John Lannan on the mound tonight (although Lannan is a soft-tossing lefty, ugh), I just don’t think that it’s been good enough, really. I can’t see us making the post-season now, especially as we’ve effectively been a .500 team since April.
I actually didn’t feel that Lohse looked too bad last night. His stuff is marginal at best, but he was locating reasonably well and other than choosing to throw a 3-2 fastball to Dunn, I felt the general approach was a good one and he just got a bit unlucky with some timely 2-out hits. The offense is another story, however – I think our pitching has the chance to really put up a lot of quality starts over the rest of the year, but once you get past #5 in our batting order there are simply going to be 4 free outs after that, every time. We’ll see what happens but I just worry if Albert goes off the boil for a couple of weeks, we’ll struggle to score more than a couple of runs every game.
Still bitching to contact.
tony and jmo live by
better the devil you know (well), than the one you don’t know (well)
no matter how bad they are
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
Waino vs John Lannan seems like it should be an easy win
but don’t forget about how waino couldn’t locate his fastball at all last outing, and that was against the pirates
my great fear is that he’s wearing down/getting tired
he’s been used pretty hard this season
by YesWeOquendo on Aug 29, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Motte's return...
…in a reasonable organization would lead directly to MacDougal’s outright release. He’s been in the majors since 2001 and pitching regularly since 2003 and in that time he’s shown the ability to throw a lot of extremely hard and locate none of them. His xFIP right now is 5.19. He’s walking seven batters per nine right now. He’s not a major league caliber pitcher and if he hadn’t gotten off to that phoenix-like start for the 2003 Royals he’d have been bagging groceries or pitching in Japan by now. If Blake Hawksworth is the worst guy in the bullpen the Cardinals are probably in good shape, but sadly Hawk is most assuredly not filling that post right now.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 29, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Not so sure about 3B
I’d say we have three 3B currently in the system in Freese, Carpenter, and Cox that, in the next year, could prove to be league average, or maybe better. Unfortunately none are either currently available to show whether they can be league average, aren’t being given the opportunity, or just isn’t ready.
Now the OF is a completely different story. I was having trouble coming up with a 5th OF in the system for next year that isn’t Stav.
"I told you, I don't like to be manhandled!"
hawk is better is in for 2 innings or less
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
Awesome post...
totally accurate critique without being unhinged and very informative. Don’t let VEP’s statistical nitpicking ruin your cheerios.
Fire La Russa!
VEP's right with regards to predicting future BABIP
and I don’t disagree with his point overall. But my target audience wasn’t people trying to make accurate future year projections of BABIP. I’m writing to the individuals that aren’t really sure how to interpret BABIP at all.
For me, it’s a question of the marginal gain in using other methods to interpret BABIP than the quick and dirty rule. More often than not, I’m just worried about the egregious luck cases since I don’t trust the classification bias to not skew anything that looks “kinda” lucky or unlucky. So the LD% is adequate for what I want to do with it. Even as a sabermetric believer, I think a lot of the advanced stats do a poor job of selling their marginal gain to regular users fwiw.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
I used to be a fan of PrOPS from THT
But they don’t seem to have it up for 2010 stats
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 29, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Can all of Lohse's troubles
be traced back to getting hit on the forearm?
Or was there a prior injury I’m missing?
Life is tough, but it's tougher if you're stupid.
- John Wayne
couple of times on the forearm i think
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
"the conviction that Aaron Miles can continue to loop dribblers through the infield"
and yet he does continue to do it. somehow. what the heck, GOBs?!
Actually that isn't a fair statement.....
He’s had 4 or 5 solid, line drive singles this week alone. Nothing “cheap” about any of them. But folks around here hate love to hate Miles, even when he is being productive.
If I told you there was a player on the waiver wire that could be acquired for free...
but he 1) had no ability to drive the ball whatsoever and 2) played bad defense, would you want the Cardinals to sign him?
In 108 plate appearances Miles’ has 4 walks and 4 xbhs. 13% of his grounders are going for infield hits. His LD rate is 14%, which, according to Az, means his babip should be .26. Instead it’s .36.
Fire La Russa!
if you hit the ball softly enough, you can beat it out for a hit
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
Yet he's been a "better" player than Craig THIS year, in STL
But Craig has “potential”, and the board likes Craig.
Watch the flippin games. Right now, Miles has a better chance at getting a hit then Craig does. He is taking better AB’s. I just don’t understand what he has to do…..actually, I do, there is nothing he can do. Even though he’ll likely finish the year with better stats then Greene and Craig, it won’t matter to some of you.
His defense at 2B is no worse then Skip, and I’d argue he is only slightly worse at 3B then Lopez. All of that is moot though…..his role isn’t, or shouldn’t be, to field. It should be the switch hitting guy off the bench, that occassionally has to play and inning or two.
It's not hate
It’s a logical evaluation of his skills, which are non-existent. He’s not a ML caliber player and despite your assertions he’s not being productive. He’s got a terrible OPS and wOBA despite an inflated batting average (inflated b/c his batted ball profile is ugly as sin). He can’t field at all anywhere on the diamond. But you’re right, we all irrationally hate the man and want to see him broken on the rack.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 29, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
"Inflated"???
He is 33 for 99 – there is nothing inflated about that. He lacks power and OB%, true enough, but to say his .333 average is really not .333 is strange at best. Is it all just luck? Fine, he might get ‘lucky’ hits til the cows come home, as long as he does. Honestly I have never seen so much flack stirred up over a back-up MI with barely over 100 PAs hitting .333 before, it is silly. Not hearing much about Boog’s .582 OPS…
:=8/
I Hate Jason Marquis!!!
:=8O
Boog at least can play defense
Do you remember that spelling bee you won in the first grade? Rock? "R-O-K"?
by jd is legend on Aug 29, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
he obviously meant BABIP
and it is inflated…. its .359 despite using purely LD% an expected .260….
by stlcardsfan4 on Aug 29, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Because Boog's an excellent fielder...
…and yeah there’s been plenty stirred up over Boog’s inability to hit well. It’s just that a SS who can really pick it is a very valuable thing regardless of how well, or not, that guy hits. Miles doesn’t have that kind of defensive ability.
MooCow, you’ve been around this site for a very, very long time. If you don’t realize that hits are products of varying amounts of off-the-bat velocity and luck by now, then I’m not sure what to say. 60% of Miles’ balls in play are in-field pop-ups and ground balls. The way these results are classified isn’t perfect but it’s not worth tossing out either. Despite hitting most of his balls in play in a manner that are more likely than not to result in an out, he’s posted a .359 BABIP. He’s not playing well… he’s just been fortunate. Good for him… best to quit while you’re ahead in a situation like that and move on, especially when he’s not a good fielder and has little to no power or plate discipline.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 29, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
You give the front office too much credit for being smart I think
They make the decisions on signing these crappy players and keeping them on the team. As is repeated here often, Dusty Baker is not a great manager. But Walt Jocketty is a great GM. I am convinced that is the key to the Reds’ success, not Dusty’s game management. It is easy to win with a few good veterans (Rolen, Arroyo, Gomes, etc.) and a lot of great young players. The 2002 Giants had Bonds and Kent, and, well, it’s easy to win with those guys bookended by some decent hitters and good pitching. We all know Joe Torre had a mediocre record as manager until he went to the Yankees. That team could have made most managers look like geniuses.
I rarely look at LaRussa’s weird decisions and say “boy, that was genius!”. When they actually work, I usually think, “boy, he got away with that one.”
I would love to see a GM like Walt with a charismatic and colorful but predictable old baseball guy as manager.
he got rolen
and got rolen ot restructure
both wanted to stick it to dewitt
and they are doing it
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
mr. wilson and sportsman, both your comments are a bit too results-y-ish for my taste
if rolen’s shoulder ever exploded all over the infield like we all knew and expected it would, our conversations in general would look a bit different
by YesWeOquendo on Aug 29, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
another classic, well-handled injury situation by the cards
no one handled that situation well
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
But, the radio guy not named Mike Shannon
says when a guy hits a line drive right at someone and mike says, “they say those even out”, he always comes back with, “if they did, everyone would hit .500”
Much more in depth than your crappy internet post.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
can we please
give aaron miles a break? he’s hitting .333 in 100 AB’s, he’s popular with mainstream fans, he plays hard (which is more than we can say for lopez), and he’s at least somewhat likable. let’s not forget tyler greene’s addiction to the DL and tendency to gaffe in the field, lopez’s inability to field any position, skip’s struggles, and ryan’s completely anemic bat until late. we need to be thankful to have a veteran utilityman who keeps producing on a team full of busts that’s been weakened through injuries or bad deals.
greene might have long-term potential, but let’s acknowledge that miles has performed well enough to stay on the club and quit ripping him in every post i read on here. dave eckstein got a similar treatment the year we let him go after he hit .309 and i can safely say i’d rather have him playing 2b and hitting leadoff than anyone we have on this team.
Lopez is hurt.
He has elbow and knee injuries. I think this has affected his play both in the field and at the plate.
However, I agree that the Miles bashing is a bit much. He has performed though some of that performance is definitely luck driven. This team could use some more luck no matter who gets it.
"The Helping Phriendly Book it seems contained the ancient secrets of eternal joy and neverending splendor. The trick was to surrender to the flow." Phish - The Lizards
by indakind on Aug 29, 2010 11:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
grit performs consistently to the limits of his ability
and, like now, probably above it
tlr is fixated on predictability, even if the predictions ain’t so great
hence the vet preference (macky d over salsa, even stav over craig)
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
Batting average...
…is a very poor stat that tells you very little about how good a player actually is. Miles cannot field at 2nd, 3rd, or SS. He has no power and draws no walks so his BA (which has been driven up by a high BABIP despite an ugly batted ball profile), while good at the moment, is ridiculously hollow. I feel like a broken record at this point. Being likeable and popular with “mainstream fans” has nothing to do with anything, all that really matters (unless someone’s a complete asshat) is your performance and Miles’s has been atrocious.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 29, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
In large-scale disasters...
the first responders go through the carnage with triage tags – black for those lost, red for severely injured and in need of immediate care, etc… The same idea could work well here. You could respond to this guy, but it would take too many resources to bring him back. Tag him and bag him.
Fire La Russa!
Hey, sometimes you just have to try
If someone is trotting out argument’s like his at VEB he or she is probably just not in-the-know. I’m a teacher by trade and like to help people out when I can and when they’re not behaving in a willfully ignorant manner. I can’t help myself, I guess.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 29, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I think...
you have to start at the beginning: the role of luck in baseball, the principle of not judging an event by its outcome, and the fallibility of perception especially related to subjective conclusions like who is playing hard and who isn’t. These are hardest lessons for people to accept, but once they do, the rest is pretty easy. jeffries seems like a really tough case.
Fire La Russa!
ahhh, the warm and loving
environment i’ve come to expect here at VEB. i’m not sure if you can pass off a .333 avg as hollow at any point, especially when we’re talking about 100 AB’s for a utility guy. i will point out that all you contributed to this discussion is naysay aaron miles. you came up with no better players to fill his roster spot, and don’t give me the fielding argument. no one on this infield can field short or 2nd besides ryan. i’m not calling him hornsby. i’m saying he deserves a roster spot and has been more dependable than a majority of the available players to fill his role.
take the fucking teeth out, we’re all after the same thing here. as an educator, i’d expect a lot more tact and a lot less hostility about a topic as sexy and charged as aaron miles.
by gsjefferies93 on Aug 29, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Aaron Miles has a .317 wOBA
He’s been a below average player despite running a .359 BABIP (and a 14.1% LD rate lol). I love to root for scrappy gritty and overperforming players as much as the next guy, but let’s not pretend that Miles is any good just because he’s fluked into a good batting average in 100 at bats.
by vivaelpujols on Aug 29, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
tyler *cough* tyler greene
plays plus defense at three positions (despite “stupid mistakes”), his .265 average is worse than aaron miles .333 average, i’ll give you that but…
he has a .359 OBP while… aaron miles has a .358 OBP… Greene has been getting neutral luck so we can about expect this… miles has a .359 BABIP with poor batted ball date… its probably generous to move his BABIP to .315 where his average drops to .289 and his OBP to .314…
his slugging percentage drops too, its currently at .374… with a 44 point drop in BA, his slugging percentage is probably in the .330-.350 range, which is not good by any means much less compounded with a bad OBP… OPS is something like .650….
Tyler Greene? he has a .417 slugging percentage and a .771 OPS which is a little above average… combine miles bad defense (numbers completely disagree with you – “don’t give me the fielding argument” – that’s half of a player’s value, that’s bullshit to say we should just ignore it)
so there… i give you tyler greene… not sure how you’ll spin this to favor miles
by stlcardsfan4 on Aug 29, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Hostility?
I merely pointed out that Miles is not a very good player and that I disagreed with your assertions. If you think that’s me being hostile, then I’m afraid I don’t know what to tell you. At no point did I attack you. All I did was state with clarity the reasons I felt like your point was incorrect.
I would be much happier if the Cardinals were using Tyler Greene in the situations Miles is currently playing in. He’s posted an equivalent on-base percentage (meaning that they both get out at roughly the same rates), hits for more power, and is a much better athlete and fielder. Now, this is all couched with a very large warning about the small sample sizes for each player (109 PA for Miles and 78 for Greene), but all things considered the guy who can do more things well is probably a better choice for that roster spot. Ruben Gotay has been playing mostly third this season but also played a lot of 2nd in his major league time and while he’s no great shakes he’s at least shown some good plate discipline and a little bit of pop. Both of those guys provide a better package than Miles. Miles will probably continue to rack up a reasonable number of balls-in-play because he rarely swings and misses but will not drive the ball and will have to hope his soft flares and ground balls. I’m skeptical that that will continue.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 29, 2010 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, look at the comment you replied to...
…I said that when someone’s not being willfully ignorant and seems to be missing something I’m more than happy to help them out. I don’t believe you are someone like some of the now-banned former-members who were borderline trolls who just came in like sticks-in-the-mud and stirred the pot for no reason other than to be a contrarian. The fact that I even replied means I respect your opinion even though I strenuously disagree. Again, if you feel I’m being hostile then feel free to flag my comment and let the administrators sort it out.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 29, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Thats just it.....
I don’t give a flying fuck about how good our 25th roster spot bat is. You don’t fill that position with potential…..you fill it with results. And right now, to date, Miles has been leaps and frickin’ bounds better than Craig and Greene. And probably Stavi, though I still feel he is good in that role (pinch hitting) as well.
Nobody in the fricking history of the world thinks that Miles at this point has more potential then Craig. NOBODY. That doesn’t mean that Craig would out perform Miles this year on the ML roster though. Please stop confusing results and potential. Miles is taking good AB’s right now. Craig is not. Miles knows how to get the most out of his abilities TODAY. Craig…..hell, the entire organization is critical of his batting stance, he just hasn’t wanted to change yet. He’ll never hit in the big leagues with that stance. It won’t happen.
by Stanley1 on Aug 29, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
How many 25th men are they up to now?
Is it 8 or 9? I’ve lost count.
You're Walgreen's sunglasses, Aaron Miles, you son of a bitch.
by The Continental on Aug 29, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
look above
he’s still been worse than tyler greene!… that’s amazing to me! miles with a .359 BABIP is miles worse than tyler greene with a .296 BABIP (by the way, if you raise his BABIP, but factor in a raise in Ks due to his history, it’s not out of line to expect this)
by stlcardsfan4 on Aug 29, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
What?
hell, the entire organization is critical of his batting stance, he just hasn’t wanted to change yet
You and TLR getting drinks after the game together or something?
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
yeah
where does he get this stuff
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
He's not been better than Greene at the ML level and Craig's been unfortunate on his balls in play
A quick examination of their respective player pages on fangraphs.com would show you just that.
The fact of the matter is that Miles has most certainly NOT been used as a 25th man. That position really does not exist on a Tony La Russa team. Everyone plays, including the back of the bench guys, and everyone is expected to contribute. When a team is in the middle of a pennant race every little thing becomes important and giving a lot of at bats to the luckiest guy on the team who can’t field seems a foolish idea to me and many of my fellow VEBers.
As for Craig’s stance, why exactly should he change? He’s hitting line drives at a higher rate than Albert Pujols at the ML level (SSS warning of course so that may or may not continue) and has hit very well in the minor leagues. If the organization is in fact concerned about his stance (and I readily admit my ignorance on this matter b/c I don’t recall anyone other than Al being down on that stance so if someone else has said something feel free to link me to that source) that’s a reasonable position to take, except for the fact that even with that stance he’s still a better overall player than Aaron Miles. And either way it doesn’t matter because Craig is an outfielder who could fill in at first if there were a problem there while Miles is a middle infielder. The debate isn’t Craig or Miles… It’s Greene/Gotay or Miles. Miles, I’m afraid to say, probably loses that one too and considering the amount of playing time at stake here on a TLR team it’s hardly a negligible matter.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 29, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Stavinoha sucks big time
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Miles does not know how to take a walk, hit more than a single, and he is below average in fielding
no other ballclub wants him. DFA
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
The bottom line objective for a hitter at the plate is to avoid making an out
thus far, Miles has been better at that than Schu, Ryan, Yadi, etc. I think the OP is just saying let’s judge Miles based on his performance so far, rather than the future performance predicted by the stats. I realize that’s not what statistically-minded people like to do though, and that’s probably where the disagreement arises.
Personally, I don’t bash Miles anywhere near as vociferously as I once did. IMO, there are players on this team much more deserving of scorn than Miles, who has performed decently at the plate so far (although I still pretty much detest his defense)
by mattyp on Aug 29, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
big difference on grit discussions
revolves around what he has done and what he is likely to do in the future
what he has done is ok, forgoing when he is asked to do the impossible, like play 3rd
projecting, i hope we have a better choice next year
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
he sucks at defense and has no power
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
2010
This has been a horribly frustrating season. I feel like the team’s found the worst possible ways to handle injuries and nearly every roster move has been a gaffe. There’s a disease around the organization that makes everyone involved cling to “proven” players, even if those “proven” guys are lousy. Salas, Greene, Craig… these guys are unknowns and they could stink it up or they could shine, and yes a risk is being taken running that kind of player out there. Miles, Feliz, MacDougal, Suppan are surer bets, but unfortunately they’re sure bets to play bad baseball. I feel like this is a talented team that can’t go on not breaking out indefinitely, but at the same time there’s a listless, circling-the-drain quality to the team that is disappointing to say the least.
RE: Rasmus. The Cards desperately need him back playing at close to 100%. Jay’s fine in CF defensively but he’s having a rather poor month and can’t be expected to maintain his July standard of play indefinitely anyway. Right now the Cards lineup dies after Matt Holliday hits. What’s pathetic is the guy I can’t wait to see hit after Holliday is Brendan Ryan because I know he’s swinging it better than earlier in the year even though his best still isn’t that great. It’s just difficult to watch as is the team in general.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 29, 2010 11:30 AM EDT reply actions
RE 2010: in the words of Roy Orbison
Time to move onto 2011, and the big question whether TLR returns. And how that decision determinesplays into the re-signing of Pujols.
The other big issue is 3B. I would like to see Adrian Beltre here, but his price tag will probably be a budget buster. Brandon Inge would be cheaper. I don’t hold out much hope Freese will be ready by ST. Tyler Greene, Matt Carpenter, and Joe Mather might serve if FO decides we need to spend $$ on starting pitching—see next item.
The third issue is finding SP. Brad Penny’s spot will have to be replaced, and possibly another starter as well—yes, Kyle Lohse, I’m looking at you. Perhaps K-Mac could be groomed as one SP. Maybe this guy who will be ready for ST. I’d love to see Jon Garland, but I don’t think San Diego will let him get away.
Finally I’d like to see Allan Craig play 2B in the fall/winter. Otherwise a Greene/Skip platoon at 2B and a Jay/Craig RF platoon works for me.
Your 2011 St. Louis Cardinals: Rasmus 8, Jay 9, Pujols 3, Holliday 7, Beltre 5, Molina 2, Ryan 6, Craig 4, pitcher
Can we just hire a real 2B?
I’m tired of converting people to play positions — ah for the days of Tommy Herr
Just win
yeah id like KJ
or to go get uggla, but you can dream I guess..Im not a beltre fan, ask any M’s fan..
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
by punchinjudy on Aug 29, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with this
If Craig’s going to be an infielder it should be at third, where he’s spent the most time. The organization needs to hit the market for an actual 2nd baseman to fill in for a year or two.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 29, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I really don't get....
the people that want Craig to play 2B.
I don’t see anything about him that makes me think he can play 2B. While he isn’t completely “clunky and slow”, he is a lot closer to that, then to being a 2B with any defensive ability what so ever.
the crux of the argument is to put Craig at second to make up for his arm
since one might assume that’s why he’s not playing third base. he’s played infield as much or more than he’s played outfield (in the minors). since we are already playing someone like Skip at second who sucks at defense, why not give Craig a try
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
2010 is far from over
that being said, one of Tony’s biggest saving graces was always his ability to “get the most out of the least,” i.e. get solid contributions from marginal players. If he can’t even seem to do that anymore, while subbing in pitchers to pinch hit in crucial game situations, calling for bunts at terrible times, consistently playing people out of position, and ultimately (possibly) failing to get a team with potential Cy, ROY, and triple crown winners to the playoffs…..then he got to go.,
at This Point...
….I hope we keep the rotation of Carp/Wainy/Garcia/Westie – and we can trot Soup out for the 5th spot, I have lost all patience with Lohse, at least until someone better shows up. Hopefully Shelby Miller will be coming up in a couple of years. But that 1st 4-some is very solid indeed, and I hope the FO sees that and re-signs Westie.
Next, we need a real 3B to cowpete at third – Freese either wins the job outright and stays healthy enough to play, or we find someone else to take over full-time, no moore converts. Maybe Lil’ Carp will evolve into a starter someday, that would be nice. I don’t see a 3b free agent worth getting, besides Beltre, who is going to be too expensive. if we’re lucky maybe we can make a trade; udderwise we will retain a black hole at 3b unless Freese recovers and stays healthy.
I Hate Jason Marquis!!!
:=8O
one of the most disheartening things about Freese's injury
is that it just sealed it for me: you can never depend on penciling this guy in on a consistent basis. We need to look at other options: if Carpenter can hack it ok, but otherwise we need to look outside the org where unfortunately there ain’t much available
i'm afraid you are correct
i don’t see how you can say tastee will ever be 100% for extended time
he’s a first baseman waiting to happen
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
the front office in which you mentioned
is a reason i hope theres a change. This is TLR in his disfunction. In recent years his inability to see a struggling veteran and a flashy surprising rookie. He’s so wishy washy. On one hand they give Jaime a shot, in another they refuse to give other guys long term shots. I hated the management of Colby last yr, and the management of greene last yr and this yr.
Last yr i thought greene should be given a shot to stay awhile and this yr too. Its not the double switches that I wasnt a change, hes always done that, but the relying on punch and judy guys to fill long term wholes that really frustrates me. I see an impass coming.
Long term you can’t develop young guys, and rely so heavily on guys whose days are done..
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
Nats fan passing through...
…just wanted to comment on the Morgan incident. Totally ashamed by his behavior by such an idiot move in such a stupid situation. A team is already down. You have a hard time scoring, Morgan. Just run across home plate and be glad that you were handed a base and were able to score on a Willie Harris hit.
Riggleman accepted complete responsibility for that move. Morgan has been benched today. We’ve witnessed a lot of stupid play from him this year. The give up on the inside the park against the Orioles, multiple pickoffs, caught stealings in poor situations, the pending suspension for the Phillies incident, and now this, a stupid play that will put our better players at risk.
He can be a solid player at times and is probably our second best centerfielder defensively, but this stuff is pretty sad, and I just wanted to apologize for that bush league stuff. Most Nats fans realize that his play was stupid and we’re embarassed by it.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
by souldrummer on Aug 29, 2010 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Thanks for dropping by, and genuinely sorry about Strasberg.
As for Morgan, yeah, he seems like a knucklehead. Shame that he’s riding the bench today. One in the ribs will have to wait.
You're Walgreen's sunglasses, Aaron Miles, you son of a bitch.
by The Continental on Aug 29, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem is players not playing to their potential..
Skip, although is raising his average slowly, has been horrible on defense and offense, Boog not hitting all season until recently, Feliz at third, and Molina all cannot keep a consistent bat. I know everyone says a bat is a plus to some of their defense, but in this case, we have 4 out of 8 starters that are terrible hitters. If Pujols, who has kept this team in there, or Holliday, can not show up everyday, then we cant expect those four to pick up the slack, their just not good enough. Add that to poor player management, and injuries, and you have a team that wont make the playoffs. Im tired of seeing Macdougal and Winn playing. Miles isnt really that bad, whether you like that or not. This team really is not that good, for more than one reason.
i have some problems with this
Boog not hitting all season until recently
actually, he’s hit at or slightly above his career norms since the all star break, which i would consider more than “just recently.”
Im tired of seeing Macdougal and Winn playing. Miles isnt really that bad, whether you like that or not.
you have winn and miles mixed up. miles is AWFUL while winn is actually serviceable. winn has plus defense in the outfield and can actually hit slightly above replacement level. i’m perfectly fine with winn as the fifth outfielder. miles, however, can get the F off my team.
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Aug 29, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
How is Miles awful?
I know many say he has nothing but bloop singles, but dang if he dosent get hits when he plays. Whats his average this year. It may be empty, but its still an average. Maybe you can make an argument for BOOG, but he is still a liability at the plate. for half the year, he was beyond terrible. not that he has finally started to bang out hits, everyone thinks its ok. Its not, people forget just how bad he hit the first half.
be fair, miles has gotten results but it doesn't mean he's been good
boog for all his failures can at least drive the ball once in awhile
i’ve seen most (maybe all) of miles’ at bats and i can only think of one time he’s hit the ball past the warning track
add (subtract?) in bad defense and miles is definitely awful
by YesWeOquendo on Aug 29, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Nobody's forgotten what a lousy start Boog had offensively
It’s just that he’s also an outstanding fielder at a key position. Miles can’t field as well as Boog and his hits are the products of fortune, not skill. The available evidence suggests that his ground balls and smacked flares will stop falling eventually and when they do the guy will have a really ugly batting line. There’s more to offense than batting average, such as the ability to get on base (OBP) and the ability to drive the ball. Miles can’t do either and relies on singles for any value, and when those singles are the products of luck it’s not likely to continue. Simple as that.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 29, 2010 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
it's surprising that people don't know to look at on base percentage instead of batting average
and no one brings up Miles’ slugging which is nil. batting average is not a good stat for various reasons.
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 29, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe hit cant hit homeruns,
but does anyone expect that? I dont think so. The guys get on base. whether its a bloop or anything not fancy, he finds a way. Im not saying hes a starter on any other team, mind you, Im just defending how bad some people think he is. I mean hes no worse than skip, or feliz. Hes not as bad as poeple make him out to be.
he is worse than skip and feliz
feliz plays d
no way in hell miles hits a grand slam against cinci
by YesWeOquendo on Aug 29, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
he finds a way
If I never hear that phrase again about a major league player, I’ll live a happier life. It ignores the fact that he’s not actually doing something that’s under his control but rather he’s getting lucky.
I feel like such a failure today after writing about BABIP and reading about guys who just "make it work" or some nonsense like that. Apparently, I did a poor job of explaining luck with regards to hitters (or at least Aaron Miles).
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
SBN'd?
And yes, it’s very odd that this is coming out on a day where you wrote about BABIP. I think you did a fine job of explaining yourself, especially noting that BABIP and batted-ball data are really inseparable and must be examined together.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 29, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Do u guys honestly think...
..that DFAing Aaron Miles is going to add 1 moar win to the Cards season?
I Hate Jason Marquis!!!
:=8O
Miles is keeping the Cards down!
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 30, 2010 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions
why would a robot care about matching humans originality?
Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing can be made
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