Revenge of the Boog
by JWO on Aug 2, 2010 1:44 AM EDT
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I've been amazed by the offensive resurgence of young Mr. Brendan Ryan the past seven days. I've got the numbers below, but this post is designed to answer the following question - When does Ryan's defense sufficiently offset his offense to stay a regular in the lineup.
First, Ryan's resurgence. Back on July 22nd, Brendan Ryan's numbers were HORRIBLE. How bad were they? He was batting .186, with an OPS of .526. For July, up until that point, Brendan had managed just TWO hits after 37 Plate Appearances. He wasn't just a dead-zone in the offense. He was the Disney Black Hole, one where space stations and robots were sucked into, never to be seen again.
Now, after seven games, his situation appears to have changed noticeably. In the past seven games, he has managed THIRTEEN hits. He has raised his average to .218, and his OPS to .585. By my math, he has been batting .500 the past week. He is scoring runs (7), RBIs (3) and his walks exceed his strikeouts. I don't know what can of spinach he popped open, but I suggest he keep chewing.
But back to the question. What does Ryan need to do offensively to stay out there all the time? Is there a magical number that he has to hit and stay above? Tony LaRussa has admitted that Yadier Molina enjoys such a status. Does Boog's acrobatic defense have a similar value?
A final note: I didn't want to get overloaded with stats in this post. But I was curious what the community thought about Ryan's value. He has been much maligned this year (many times quite fairly). And even his fielding has at times suffered. I just wondered how many more mulit-hit games he needs before he starts playing every day. Thoughts?
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Do you want the logical answer?
Ryan’s defense overshadows his offense when the combination of the two is better than the combination of offense and defense of his potential replacement.
Now, what does Tony think? It’s beyond me.
To add on...
Ryan has a .253 wOBA and a .300 mark for his career. Let’s say he’s a .290 wOBA guy going forward. He’d be worth -18 runs with the bat compared to an average hitter over 150 games. Ryan’s career UZR/150 is 10, so he’s pretty close to making up for his offense with his defense, when you consider how hard it is to play shortstop compared to the average position. I doubt there is another player the Cardinals have who is more valuable than Ryan.
you mean at ss, right?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Tyler Greene?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
events eclipse your question
with T. Greene going DL, and Luddy dispatched, B Ryan AND Colby will suffer less from the LaRussa mania of "he went 3 for 4 yesterday, so today he sits; I have to get Winn, or Miles, or Stav, some ABs.
In other words, BR and CR will be ‘regulars’ for a while.
As to your overall question, the Yadi situation is actually something of an impediment for Brendan. In that, a team can generally afford poor offense from ONE of three positions, namely from SS or C, or even in rare circumstances CF. But TWO is usually unacceptable.
My claim has always been that if Yadi and Colby are hitting, Brendan is in the line-up.
I defer to Yadi2Second,
but I dstinctly recall TLR stating in Spring Training (or, very early in April) that Brendan Ryan had reached Yadi status, which is to say that his defense is so good that any offense he gives us is icing on the cake. Then, shortly thereafter, TLR revoked that status.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
this is true, except for the revoked part.
Errors on defense = sit.
No errors = thrown in.
It has been pretty much like clockwork. I could be wrong, but I think Skip is also on such a watch.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
i think given our groundball pitching style he is even more valuable
I think he earned the right to start last season. His defense is top notch imo. He should start!
chief justice
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 2, 2010 10:47 AM EDT reply actions
Tewk said it about right...
a team can generally afford poor offense from ONE of three positions, namely from SS or C, or even in rare circumstances CF
It’s all about middle defense. That’s where you want the best you can get.
There have been lots of “all glove-no hit” shortstops for that very reason.
Dal Maxville was like that and Ozzie was like that in the beginning, to a lesser degree.
Ryan’s defense is better than good so you run him out there. However, if the rest of the team can’t carry him you have to do something else. The load can’t be too heavy. Just like Tewk said, carrying two players is a bit much.
If the team hits like it should then they can sing “he ain’t heavy, he’s my shortstop.”
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
Why is Tewk right?
That’s just conjecture, why does it matter if you have 1, 2, or 3 black holes offensively on your team? As long as that’s offset by good defense at those posiitons I don’t see the problem.
run scored = run saved
by vivaelpujols on Aug 2, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s just conjecture, why does it matter if you have 1, 2, or 3 black holes offensively on your team? As long as that’s offset by good defense at those posiitons I don’t see the problem.
Thats how the Pirates roll. But seriously runs saved are awesome. However if 1/3 of your lineup is an offensive blackhole, your gonna burn up your Pitching staff, and lose a lot of games.
The player I would like least at #9 would be my sister’s cat, Captain Creamsicle. She does have a great work ethic and agility, but I’m really concerned that at 9 lbs., she’s too small to play safety in the NFL. She also bites way too often on play action and is easily distracted by someone waving string in the crowd. Lastly, her wonderlic score was pretty awful, answering "meow meow meow" for most of the questions- Dr. Brackish Okun
Mariners anyone?
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
in April the Cards' sOBA (Fangraphs)
Colby .480
Albert .445
Luddy .367
Freese .357
Holliday .353
Lopez .348
Molina .314
Skip .272
Boog .213
So three players were below league average and the team record was 18-8.
Obviously having 4 solid pitchers helps.
May saw Rasmus drop precipitously (.293), while Skip, Yadi, & Boog all remained below .300
June was Skip first month near league average (.325). Luddy dropped to .307, and Freese to .295. Yadi and Boog were still below .300
July saw Jon F. Jay’s .477, but five Cards were below average: Lopez,Skip, Yadi, Rasmus, & Boog (.198!)
We can afford subpar batting from C, SS, & 2b, but not CF. When Freese returns, putting Lopez /Skip platoon at 2B will help. Yadi needs more days off, and Boog needs to continue his hot streak.
The wild card is the new Jay/Craig platoon. RF has been a plus all year. These guys have to keep it up.
"They're so stunned they didn't even boo!"
John Rooney 5/3/10 referring to Philly fans on Cards 5-run 7th inning
Wait a minute!
why does it matter if you have 1, 2, or 3 black holes offensively on your team? As long as that’s offset by good defense at those posiitons
I’m stunned to hear that coming from you. You’re way too smart to say that.
No matter how good the defense and pitching is, you still have to put runs on the board and that requires hits. The fewer hits you get, the less chances you have of scoring (unless you play really good small ball). That’s as simple as it gets. It might be a little easier in the AL because of the DH, but still…
You might get away with 3 black holes if you have Mantle/Maris, Ruth/Gehrig, McGwire/Conseco, etc. Somebody’s got to hit.
Tell me you were joking.
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
by Dave Pendleton on Aug 2, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Please tell me you are going to back up your claims with some numbers
Oh wait, you don’t use those, you prefer the ole bullshit.
There is no evidence that a run saved is less valuable than a run scored. What does it matter if a team wins 3-2 rather than 5-4?
I'm taking this as a lighthearted back and forth....
or maybe I just don’t understand what you meant.
I do use numbers, just not to the degree as most people here do.
But this isn’t about numbers. This is just common sense.
I didn’t say that a run saved is more or less valuable than a run scored.
Are you saying that it doesn’t matter if you have 3 guys that don’t hit as long as they’re great fielders? That’s the way I took it. Did I misunderstand you?
What if you magnify that and say you have 8 guys that can’t hit but are the greatest fielders that ever lived. Would the same concept apply? I don’t think that team would win many games. Not too many teams can afford to carry 3 guys that don’t hit.
We must be on a different page.
The same principal applies to pitching (sort of). you might get away with one guy that can’t pitch, but the more guys like that you have the more hitting and defense you need. You have to have a balance.
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
by Dave Pendleton on Aug 2, 2010 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok, so no evidence gotcha
I’m saying I don’t give a crap about how many no hit all field guys we have on our roster as long as their overall value is high. Yadier Molina has somewhere around a .600 OPS and he’s been a league average player because of his defense, which means he has as much value as a guy with a .800 OPS and terrible defense.
If you are saying that there is some magic limit as to how many all field no hit guys you can have on a team, then back it up with something. The “common sense” position is that it doesn’t matter how a team gets it’s value.
by vivaelpujols on Aug 3, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
if all the value
comes from fielding then there’s no balance. gotta have balance, gotta produce runs.
Up until this year we didn’t suffer as much on defense. This year it shows with skip & boog, mostly. and when those 2 positions weren’t hitting at all (early on) it hurt even more, and Yadi wasn’t doing much either.
I’m just saying that if you have too many guys not hitting it’s harder to run them out there just for their defense unless the rest of the team is really hitting enough to make up for it, and this team hasn’t had enough guys hitting that well all at the same time. Boog was/is the biggest offensive deficit. There’s perhaps enough hitting to make up for it, but when it’s boog AND skip AND yadi not hitting, and the rest of the guys hitting now and then it’s just too hard to score. I don’t see this as all that complicated.
no, there really isn’t any magic number as to how many black holes there are but it’s a push/pull thing. If you have enough offense to carry 3 black holes then the number is 3. If the offense is really crappy then the pitching & defense better be good. if the pitching is crappy then the offense & defense better be good, if the defense is crappy then the pitching & offense has to make up for it. It’s a 3 way balancing act.
Whatever the numbers come out to be doesn’t matter if the team doesn’t score enough to win the game.
If the black holes save 3 runs per game and the rest of the offense produces 2 runs per game, then there’s not enough firepower to carry 3 black holes.
however you do it, you have to score more than you allow.
The “evidence” is in the win column. That’s the number that matters most.
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
by Dave Pendleton on Aug 3, 2010 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
but there are "magic" numbers
that dictate how much bad offense is set off by good defense. And how many offensive black holes a team can have, depending on the value of the whole contribution of each player on the roster. VEB is absolutely right in saying run saved = run scored. If Player A is saving more runs on defense than he is costing on offense (compared to replacement, or Player B), than Player A is more valuable than that player.
Generally, I agree with you
but I doubt that the Markov chain analysis would tell you that the relationship is completely linear depending on what the overall run environment of the team is. I would be that the relative value of hitting and pitching would tend to level out for a team that scores about 4 a game and surrenders about 4 runs a game.
If you’re scoring 5 runs a game and allowing 4, I would bet that it would be marginally better to add pitching than hitting, assuming everything else is normalized. Maybe I’ll treat this rigorously next month if I actually end up defending this August.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I agree that at the extremes you'd like certain skills over others
But it’s not like the effect is that large. Besides is this team every going to be a the extreme end of either pitching/defense or run scoring?
by vivaelpujols on Aug 3, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
i don't know if this team
is going to really excel in any one of the three element. You would think that it would be hitting or pitching if they did. They just don’t have enough consistency at anything to put much together for any length of time.
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
by Dave Pendleton on Aug 3, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Whatever
All you ever do is state your opinion as fact, with absolutely no evidence to back it up. I’m done.
by vivaelpujols on Aug 3, 2010 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
all you ever do is see my opinion
as if it’s stated as fact…and that’s another opinion.
I’m done too.
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
by Dave Pendleton on Aug 3, 2010 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
...
They just don’t have enough consistency at anything to put much together for any length of time.
Sounds pretty absolute to me.
by vivaelpujols on Aug 4, 2010 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Aren't you getting
a little saddle sore from riding my ass?
Just about everything said by anybody here is their opinion, including you, and I don’t think yours is any better than anyone else’s, nor do you hold the patent on facts. Does everybody have to end their statement with IMO for you to take it as an opinion or just me?
I thought you said you were done? I took that as fact. It sounded pretty absolute to me. But it appears, IMO, that you’re trying to get the last word in.
Well here’s a fact for you:
I said above that
I’m taking this as a lighthearted back and forth…,that was an attempt at civility but you missed it or disregarded it. It was an attempt to continue having conversations with you despite the fact that you’ve been a complete asshole toward me, but you either missed it or disregarded it.
Here’s an opinion:
You disregarded it. You’d rather continue being a jerk.
Here’s another fact:
I don’t have a problem with anybody here but you. Everybody else has been civil with me…except you.
Here’s another opinion:
You don’t like me because I’m not a saber-head and you try to put me in a corner because I see things differently than you. You can’t except something as an opinion unless it’s spelled out for you, at least when it comes to my comments. You can’t accept that some people don’t need or want to analyze everything to the nth degree, and if they don’t, then you can’t let it go at that, you want to provoke an argument by calling their opinion “bullshit”.
Sometimes you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
Here’s another opinion:
If you eliminated the words “fuck” and “bullshit” from your vocabulary it would put a damper on your ability to express yourself.
Here’s another fact:
I’ve stated several times on VEB that nothing I say is anything more than my opinion, (I guess you missed that too), and that I always try to conduct myself in a polite, civil and respectful manner…..it’s a public forum!
I may disagree with other people’s opinions but I have respect for them and show more class by not calling their opinion “bullshit”.
I can agree to disagree and let it go.
So, I’ve clearly stated for you what I consider fact and opinion, regarding this reply, so there is no dispute about it.
Go ahead and have the last word, say whatever you want. I won’t be responding because of one last fact….
I’m done with you.
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
by Dave Pendleton on Aug 4, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
lots of people here back up their opinions with evidence
i.e. stats, etc
chief justice
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 4, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
But it isn't essential to chew people out in a rude way when they don't
that’s what gets people’s backs up (reasonably so, IMO).
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Aug 4, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
But he's been doing it every single damn time
Everything he has said on this blog has been an opinion that is presented as fact and not backed up by any evidence. That is my definition of bullshit, and it’s something that nobody else does consistently on this blog.
That pisses me off more than just about anything else a guy can do. It makes it impossible to have a reasonable discussion with the person because any evidence and research that you put into the argument is worthless against a guy like that because he can just rebut it with another “well that’s great and all, but there is no way x = y”.
I know I’ve been a complete asshole – I don’t particularly care. Dave’s type of style is the last thing I ever want to see on this blog, and although I have no right to demand a cease, I can certainly voice my opinion.
Dumb question:
Is there a reasonably attainable point where the pitching gives up so few batted balls that defense becomes noticeably less valuable?
Sorry, kind of a tangent from the main thread.
I'm out of champagna. How about some 7-Up and Mad Dog 20/20?
by The Continental on Aug 2, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Well there is no one point
It’s continuous. If a team has a really good defense, but a strikeout heavy staff, that teams defense is less valuable than if the team had a contact heavy staff. If the team strikes out slightly less, the defense is slightly more valuable, and so on.
Obivously the ground ball and fly ball tendencies make a difference as well.
Winning is the answer to your question
If a team is winning then it does not matter how many defensive specialist are on the team. The bottom line is that one simply has to weigh the total work of the player.
OT: I just read
that Freeze is out for the season and that Mott has a shoulder issue.
What next?
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
Where was I?
Sorry, JWO, for my part on throwing cold water on this thread. You have my apology.
The question being asked is:
When does Ryan’s defense sufficiently offset his offense to stay a regular in the lineup?
Here’s my opinion, for what it’s worth…..
It’s a good question and there maybe no simple, definitive answer.
There’s surely more than one way to look at it. A few have already been stated here (aside from mine), with varying views, mostly based on numbers and arriving at different conclusions. So, even if you look at in terms of strictly numbers, different conclusions can emerge, depending on which numbers are used and which formulas are applied.
Then the debatable shifts to which are the better numbers & formulas to use to best answer the question. Usually, as far as I can see, disagreement still remains when all the dust settles….unless several formulas arrive at the same conclusion. Then nobody cares how the problem was solved as long as a common answer is produced.
I think that the question you’re asking is one of those that can have more than one valid answer, none of them being 100% right or wrong.
When does Ryan’s defense sufficiently offset his offense to stay a regular in the lineup?
Here’s my shortcut, debatable, simple answer (no formula required):
“When” is the keyword of both the question and the answer.
When the offense can consistently support it.
The underlying questions are:
When does that happen, is it happening now, and how do you decide?
I think it’s a tough overall question for this team because the team has been so spotty in all 3 elements, pitching, hitting & defense. Justification for playing Ryan everyday because of his defense seems to be a day-to-day thing until the team can get on a roll.
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
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