FanPost

A look at the Cy Young race (part 2)

I've got offdayitis and am jonesing for some statistical quantification of actual baseball performance after one of the best and albeit weirdest important regular season series I've witnessed in many years of baseball fandom ('82 kicked ass btw! although, I would've been just less than 7 years old). After watching much thrilling and entertaining baseball and even some melee and debate, I am ready for some good old stats.

I'm going to do an update on a fanpost earlier in the season where I averaged out the 4 pitching stats at fangraphs.com that are scaled to ERA (including ERA itself). Here are the latest leaders in the Cy Young race by that method, which doesn't give a Carp about win percentage or wins/losses. Last I checked Josh Johnson was leading the Cy Young overall...

ERA Leaders

  1. Josh Johnson 1.97
  2. Adam Wainwright 1.99
  3. Tim Hudson 2.24
  4. Roy Halladay 2.34
  5. Mat Latos 2.36
  6. Clay Buchholz 2.49
  7. Ubaldo Jimenez 2.55
  8. Trevor Cahill 2.56
  9. Cliff Lee 2.57
  10. Jaime Garcia 2.71

FIP Leaders

  1. Francisco Liriano 2.14
  2. Josh Johnson 2.29
  3. Cliff Lee 2.32
  4. Yovani Gallardo 2.69
  5. Roy Halladay 2.71
  6. Adam Wainwright 2.91
  7. Felix Hernandez 3.04
  8. Jered Weaver 3.06
  9. Jon Lester 3.10
  10. Tommy Hanson 3.11

xFIP Leaders

  1. Roy Halladay 2.86
  2. Francisco Liriano 2.90
  3. Josh Johnson 3.11
  4. Adam Wainwright 3.21
  5. Yovani Gallardo 3.27
  6. Cliff Lee 3.27
  7. Jon Lester 3.29
  8. Felix Hernandez 3.34
  9. Jered Weaver 3.40
  10. Tim Lincecum 3.41


tERA Leaders

  1. Josh Johnson 2.46
  2. Cliff Lee 2.44
  3. Francisco Liriano 2.47
  4. Mat Latos 2.72
  5. Jered Weaver 2.78
  6. Adam Wainwright 2.80
  7. Felix Hernandez 2.99
  8. Tommy Hanson 3.03
  9. Ubaldo Jimenez 3.10
  10. Jon Lester 3.18

One of the most fascinating things I see is how different the top 10s are for each type of pitching stat.... well except for Josh Johnson who clearly is still dominating. Of course the Cardinals own Adam Wainwright is up there, as well as Roy freakin Halladay. So I will consider those 3 as the main Cy Young contenders at this moment. In the mutant league, Cliff Lee, Francisco Liriano, and let's say Felix Hernandez are probably the best 3 pitchers in the AL right now. So by the hybrid stat that averages all 4 forms of ERA, here's what we find:

Cy Young Contenders

  1. Josh Johnson 2.4575 (NL leader)
  2. Cliff Lee 2.65 (AL leader)
  3. Francisco Liriano 2.71
  4. Adam Wainwright 2.7275
  5. Roy Halladay 2.7775
  6. Felix Hernandez 3.045
So it would seem prudent to think Johnson would probably win the Cy Young at this point by rate stats on pitching. And even more clear for Cliff Lee... he seems to be possibly the best pitcher in baseball at this time. So there's my fangraphs stats, here are a few more peripheral pitching stats to help clarify if you want counting stats.
  • Wainwright has more wins than Johnson
  • Wainwright leads in WHIP
  • Wainwright is second to Halladay in innings pitched
  • Wainwright is second to Halladay in complete games
  • Wainwright is second in shutouts to Halladay
  • Wainwright leads in WPA/LI
So maybe it's still a tossup between Wainer and Johnson. Halladay too?

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