Hitting Without Men On Base

What is wrong with the Cardinals offense? Why aren't they scoring more runs? These are questions that have been asked a lot this season. Some of the answers that have been looked at have been things like hitting with men on base, Albert not hitting like God himself, Holliday's struggles with runners in scoring position, the slumps of Ryan, Skip and Yadi, the presence of Miles on the roster. It's a long list. But the fact is the Cards have hit pretty well with men on base, Albert isn't very far from his career averages, Holliday is heating up like he does every year, Miles doesn't get enough at bats to really have that much of an impact (but it is frustrating none the less) and Skip seems to be returning to his 300 average form (Yadi and Ryan still are troublesome). 

One thing I seemed to notice while watching games is that the Cards seem to never put the lead off man on base. It always seems like they are starting rallies with 2 outs. I was curious if stats would reflect this or if it was just my perception. So I took a look first at the overall team splits and also at the when healthy starters plus Lopez. 

First lets take a look at how the Cards are doing leading off the game. Skip and Lopez have been the primary lead off hitters this year. Here are their numbers when leading off the game and the cards as a whole.

Skip: 395/439/474

Lopez: 286/310/393

Team : 320/363/400

League Ave: 261/323/388

Skip is killing the ball in the first inning. The lead off hitters are doing an excellent job of setting the table in the first inning and this shows overall as the Cards have scored 50 1st inning runs, which is the 2nd most of any inning. The 7th inning with 52 runs is the most productive inning so far this season. 

What about the rest of the game? How are Cardinals hitters doing when leading off an inning? Or hitting with no one on and 1 or 2 outs? First, the team as a whole, and then the individuals. 

Leading off an Inning: 251/309/377

Total with no one on: 253/316/395

National league Ave:

Leading off an inning: 257/316/405

Total with no one on: 250/313/391

It appears as though when leading off an inning that the Cardinals as a team are a little below league average. Both splits with men on base and RISP are above the league average. So, it seems like our offense should be producing more runs. Averages can be misleading though, as 1 or 2 players strong performance can shift a team average. How are the individuals doing so far this season?

(first split will be leading off an inning, second will be total plate appearances with no runners on)

Yadi: 157/259/157  -  217/299/258

Albert: 298/353/489  -  280/353/524

Skip: 300/351/333  -  256/309/304

Ryan: 245/298/340  -  180/234/250

Lopez: 236/286/347  -  236/309/358

Freese: 300/333/350  -  313/379/427

Holliday: 275/315/522  -  342/399/563

Rasmus: 274/384/677  -  274/371/565

Ludwick: 102/170/184  -  186/244/353

There are some ugly numbers there. Skip goes from hitting 395 when leading off the game to 300 leading off an inning and all the way down to 256 with no one on. Which means after the first inning he isn't hitting at all when the bases are empty. Lopez also experiences a similar drop off though not as significant as Skip's. The bottom half of the lineup is also putting up some ugly numbers. Yadi, Ryan and Ludwick all with OBP under 300. 

So far this season it seems like Pujols, Holliday, Rasmus, Freese and Ludwick are the only players hitting. When it comes to starting rallies Ludwick's name falls off that list. To make things worse, the slumping hitters are hitting even worse with no one on. So, those few guys not only have to knock in the runs, but also start the rallies. That is not a good way to have consistent offense. 

While the overall team numbers look fine, it is the wide gaps between the way the individuals are performing that is causing the lack of runs. Stringing hits together is difficult when there are several players slumping in a line up. It becomes even more difficult when individuals aren't reaching base early in the inning.