Trading for a bat?
by tarakas on Jul 3, 2010 2:11 PM EDT
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There have been numerous calls for the Cardinals to trade for a bat, many of which come from the writers of the Post-Dispatch. While I agree the offense is sputtering, I'm not sure what trades would help it.
Last year, the team was "blessed" with holes at 3B and LF, making it easy to upgrade the offense. Let's face it, it was not hard to realize we had to replace Sloppy Joe.
But who does the newly acquired "bat" replace now?
Pujols, Rasmus, and Holliday are all fixtures in the lineup and will not be replaced.
The worst hitter has been Ryan, and he certainly is replaceable. But while another shortstop might well hit better, few shortstops meet the definition of a "bat." For example, picking up Christian Guzman and his .293/.333/.373 line would be a step up from Ryan, but he is hardly a bat who will turn the offense around.
Our next worst hitter is Molina, who cratered in June after a poor May. But Molina is our established starter, and Tony valued his defense even back when Molina was a poor hitter at the beginning of his career. He's not leaving the lineup, and even if the team wished to replace him, finding a catcher who is available, plays defense acceptable to to Tony, and is a "bat" would be quite difficult.
Skip is not the best hitter, but his hitting has come around lately, and there are few available second basemen who would be much better.
Ludwick was hitting fine before his injury, should be back in a couple of weeks, and I doubt the team can really upgrade there.
That leaves us with third base. Freese is injured and unproven, and while he was hitting OK, he was not lighting the world on fire. It is easier to find a slugging third baseman than some other other positions. Still, he wasn't terrible.
So, given that, who would you try to trade for? Assuming they did not cost too much, I'd consider:
Dan Uggla--Can bop at 2B or 3B
Mike Aviles--not a "bat," but likely an improvement over Ryan.
Thoughts?
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Yes to Aviles
Not sure what his availability or contract situation looks like, but all the guy does is hit (when he’s healthy, of course).
"When I gave up a grand slam to Pete LaCock," Bob Gibson said later, "I knew it was time to quit."
Considering it's Kansas City...
Do we have a low OBP, terrible defensive middle infielder? They seem to be stockpiling those guys….
Wait….Pete Kozma, COME ON DOWN!
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I'm all for Uggla but I don't think they will trade him for what we can give them
I surely wouldn’t trade away Shelby Miller unless it’s Cliff Lee
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 3, 2010 3:21 PM EDT reply actions
I know!
Miles, Stav, and Schu for Uggla!
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 3, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
By their powers combined, they are...
Matt Stairs, Professional Hitter
"When I gave up a grand slam to Pete LaCock," Bob Gibson said later, "I knew it was time to quit."
by The Classical on Jul 3, 2010 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL!
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 4, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude, Freese was legit before he hurt his ankle
He and Garcia were (are) potential ROY candidates, even though neither will probably win. Aside from the first two weeks, and the last two when he was injured, Freese has been amazing at the plate and at third.
Stay the course. Look at it this way, CIN has been overachieving and we’ve been under-performing, yet we’ve kept it a two team race. When we start playing up to our potential, it will be up to CIN to keep up. If they continue at their current pace, they may be able to stay within 3 or 4 games behind us. If, however, they take a second half nosedive, which they’re wont to do, we’ll be able to open up a healthy lead whether we’re hot or not.
Never forget August 2009.
Testicle-exploding shit storms, to date: T.E.S.S '08, T.E.S.S '09
I think he was paying more attention to how Freese was hitting lately
which I think was mainly a slump… part of it due to playing on a bad ankle
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 3, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
He worries me
Freese was hitting, but it was mainly an empty average with little power (just over .100 points of isolated slugging).
Was the average sustainable? I wasn’t too sure. He had a very high BABIP of .376. Among players with 200 or more PA, he has a high line drive rate of 23.1% (31st highest in MLB) and very low popup rate of 2.2% (6th lowest in MLB).
If his numbers start to regress to the mean, his batting average could easily drop 20-40 points. If you take 30 points of BA off of his current slash line, you get an ugly .266/.331//374.
(By the way, of MLB players with > 200 PA, Schumaker, Molina, and Freese rank 4th, 5th and 6th in lowest popup percentage).
should the tuesday colorado game be T.E.S.S. '10?
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
That guy we gave a lot of money in the offseason to protect albert is dead to me...DEAD TO ME
by VolsnCards5 on Jul 11, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
there's still a half season left to try and top that one
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Royals
I think that the Royals would be open to trading Aviles or Callaspo, assuming they could get a couple of young pieces in return. Of course, they may ask us to take Guillen off of their hands in return for getting Aviles or Callaspo.
what about Kelly johnson?
course where to move skip?
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
move skip to phoenix
probably have to throw in an extra prospect to get them to take him, though
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i wouldnt think itd be alot
they are cleaning house, and in the past cards where interested, and hes having a good year
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
He's a chase product, outside of that park he's done virtually nothing.
agree
but that doesn’t mean i wouldn’t swap schu for johnson’s expiring contract, and throw someone in to get zona to do it. i’m half serious, too.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
eating some money on schu's contract wouldn't be all that difficult
not that i think we should get rid of him fro kelly johnson
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
We already have our own KJ (Green T.)
and he’s cheaper and plays better defense
"They're so stunned they didn't even boo!"
John Rooney 5/3/10 referring to Philly fans on Cards 5-run 7th inning
what I want to know is if we should anticipate trading luddy if we're not going to resign him this offseason.
Craig can take over reasonably soon if given the chance to start.
not saying we should just adding a twist.
i hope they resign him
but the time to decide, you are right, is now. if we’re not going to, then find a partner in contention who can give us what we need for what they need.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
sign him now!
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
by Dave Pendleton on Jul 4, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
no way
We’re in win now mode this year, IMO, and I doubt we’d want to trade away our 4th best hitter. Craig is fine but he’s not as good as Ludwick, and hasn’t really got the arm to play RF, so why would we want to make our team worse? We’d get a B-level prospect for Ludwick but he’s probably going to be a type B eventually anyway, isn’t he, so we can just cash him in for a similar prospect when his arby years run out eventually anyway.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 5, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
well, i wouldn't trade him for any prospect
but i’d trade him for someone who could help us now.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
like a RF to fill the hole we created by trading him away?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
no, that would be stupid
we’d put craig in right if luddy could bring us a pitcher for this year and beyond – atlanta might be a match.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
he doesn't pitch
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
seriously though, how's his arm rated - any idea?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i'd trade him for medlen.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 5, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
i was thinking along those lines
we’re in win-now mode as you pointed out, and to me that’s this year and the next few. of course craig would have to hold his own in right, at least this year, and i might be higher on him than others, but i think he could or else wouldn’t even contemplate trading luddy.
now, if the org plans to keep luddy around for a few years, i’m good with that, but as this discussion started, they should decide, imo, and if they’re not then i’d go for a good young cost-controlled pitcher who could help us now and in the following years, and cheaply. the braves could use an outfield bat and spare a pitcher like medlen. i just feel we will need another starter in the second half, and obviously in the coming years. this would be an alternative to a miller package for lee – i’m not sure which would be more desirable, or (un)popular.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I should have added
I’d trade him for Medlen, but I’m pretty sure the Bravos wouldn’t do that. I get the feeling they could probably get a bit more than Ludwick for Medlen (and I’m assuming here that Luddy is probably slightly under-valued on the trade market generally, due to his slightly odd career path). I’m just not that sure we’re really that desperate for a pitcher (with Penny on the verge of a return, we’ve got 4 average to above-average starters, a decent pen, and a range of uninspiring but probably just about palatable 5th starter options) that we should take a big downgrade in right field (this year and next) to acquire one.
I think Allen Craig (or Jon Jay, or whoever) is likely to be at least a 2-win downgrade from Ludwick, at least in the short term.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 6, 2010 7:11 AM EDT up reply actions
my concern is a pitcher going down in the second half
after the trade deadline and/or garcia’s innings being curtailed. i’m not really counting on lohse being back this year, and we’re pretty thin in this department – the reds seem to have much better depth, and this is shaping up to be a real battle.
i could go either way – try for lee to put us over the top and go for it in the playoffs (costing miller), or go for a cost-controlled 4th-type starter who might not factor in the playoffs but could help get us there, and we’d have him for the coming years when we are going to need pitchers anyway (costing craig).
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I think the obvious upgrade is at second
Lopez and Freeze should be battling it out for time at third (neither have played up to their potential so far – Freese has shown little power and only a ~.380 BABIP is keeping him productive), but Skip is not starting material.
Personally, I don’t think the Cardinals should make any moves. I still think they are easily the best team in the division going forward. I’m not buying the Reds. They’ve outperformed their component based winning percentage this year by a lot, and I think the Cardinals are a lot better going forward and I wouldn’t like to see them mortgage the future unless they actually need to.
Wait till the deadline and see if the Reds are still playing well.
I'm not sure
about the Cardinals being the best team going forward…maybe…but I’m not sure.
Perhaps with the hopes of Penny and Lohse’s return there may be something to be optimistic about, but as it is, this team has more woes than pitching. As it is, if they stand pat and play the hand they have, it looks a little bleak to me.
It’s quite possible that what we are seeing is what we’ll continue to see, but of course, it’s also possible for this team to catch fire. This team needs to HIT!!!
Pujols, Holliday, Rasmus & Ludwick are the core of the hitting, in that order. On paper it looks great but in reality it’s more like Rasmus, Ludwick, Pujols & Holliday. Hopefully, like we’re all waiting to see, they’ll start producing as expected in the 2nd half. If not, the Cardinals are done for this season.
As far as Lopez or Freeze at third, In my mind it’s a no brainer. Freeze at third. I’m pretty impressed so far at his play of third, it’s better than Lopez’s. Although Freeze’s bat has cooled down I think we should expect it to pick up when he’s 100%. If I’m going to plant Lopez somewhere as a regular, it would probably be at 2nd.
Ryan is the big question mark in my opinion. Even with his occasional bad throws he’s a plus at SS. His range is great and his arm is strong. If the team were hitting well enough to carry him it would help a lot.
If the Cardinals make any move at all it should be addition by subtraction…release Miles, I’m sorry to say. He’s served the Cardinals well over the years but I don’t see a legitimate reason for him to be on the team.
I’m willing to cast of this season rather than mortgage the future to salvage it.
All in all, I’d play what we have and let the chips fall where they may. Adding a bat won’t help much if the others don’t become more consistent.
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
by Dave Pendleton on Jul 4, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
im sure you just took hitting into the equation but
Mike Aviles—not a “bat,” but likely an improvement over Ryan.
im sure ryan’s defense more than makes up for it… aviles isn’t exactly a world beater in the field and he kind of needs to be to be more valuable than ryan…. plus that high average of .319 is aided by a .358 BABIP and he has a 3.8% BB rate so when he’s not hitting he’s not doing much of anything
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
Aviles is garbage
not sure he’s any better than anything we’ve already got.
I think middle infield is the only area we can substantially improve and there’s not much on the market. I’d stand pat. Simply dumping Miles and giving Greene an extended shot has a fair chance of improving our MIF production anyway IMO, that would be by far the best move. Otherwise, maybe Christian Guzman, if the Nats will dump him for next to nothing.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 5, 2010 10:25 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
If it is a bat it has to be SS or 2B but I think it is pitching
Look I know the pitching was exceptional prior to the injuries, but Wainright is the only one in this rotation who is rock solid. Carpenter and Garcia have been very good but Carpenter is not the Carpenter of old and his injury history has to be a concern as he gets older. Garcia has been fantastic and has great promise but he also has an injury history and he has never pitched this many innings. Penny looked good prior to the injury but remember that he was released by the Red Sox last year and who knows how he will respond after the injury. Lahose has been terrible since getting hit on the forearm and his surgery was a rare baseball surgery so who knows.
This pitching staff has been good and has the potential to be good, but there has to be concerns as they go forward. Adding a Cliff Lee or Danny Haren would be huge. I really like Carp, Wainright and Garcia but Lee would probably be best on the staff if he were picked up and that statement is made with all due respect to Carpenter, Wainright and Garcia because they have been very good. Lee is in his prime just as Wainright is and a Wainright / Lee combination would be the best in baseball.
I think the only place you could add a bat would be at SS or possibly 2B and I just don’t see that many upgrades out there at either position. Quite the opposite with a Cliff Lee acquisition – he immediately makes this team a lot better.
Yes he probably is a one year rental, but who knows. Maybe something happens and Pujols is not signed or maybe Lahose is traded or maybe he just cannot come back. Lee would be great for a one year chance to win it all and it would also be nice to have him in the background if the unforseen happens and you need a frontline pitcher.
w/o giving up miller
i think the simplest improvement is pitching. they have so many under/poorly performing position players, one bat won’t win more games than haren or lee every 5th day. plus, if we do make the playoffs, running carp (if he holds together, of which i am dubious), waino, and haren/lee out there gives us our best chance to win, more so than any bat
i must also add that tlr has got to shape up and play to win each game, instead of saying he wants to win each game. this line-up crap has to stop
how much better will randy winn or grit perform in their pinch hit roles if they played last thursday, or a week ago last thursday? answer, none. plus isn’t that why we have vets, people who can handle this role?
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
fwiw
I’d much rather trade for Cliff Lee
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 5, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I just don't know how we get Lee or Haren, though
I’m literally not even sure we have the prospects to do it. If neither team is that high on Shelby Miller, there is absolutely nothing else in our farm system that could get those deals done.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 6, 2010 7:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Give it a few weeks.
I think Freese will be closer to his early season form after getting some time to heel on the DL. While he is on the DL, I think I would give Tyler Greene as many starts as possible. He certainly can’t hit any worse than Boog has overall or Skip does against lefties. While Skip’s overall line is still ghastly, he has hit better over the last month and a half, as we discussed last week. A healthy Ludwick and Freese will help jumpstart our offense more than any trade, in my opinion. Lets hope that is what we are treated to after the ASG.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I agree.
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
by Dave Pendleton on Jul 5, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
the team sure could use a backup 3B, at the least
because floppy, let’s face it, should not be there on a daily basis while freese is out.
Albert's grand slam, 7/3/09
@zoomzoomj88
Jeff Passan is an asshat
Hoping that the Cards trade for Cliff Lee!
let's face it, you have a grudge against floppy
his defense is fine at 3B, its SS that’s deadly…. and his hitting is better than freese has been going by wOBA
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
At this point, you gotta be joking with us...
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
By wOBA, Lopez is better than Freese
and he’s better defensively at 3B than he is anywhere else on the field.
You can hold a grudge all you want, but he should be in the lineup pretty much every day at 3B until Freese returns.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Lopez
has a .338 wOBA and a .750 OPS. Freese has a wOBA of .342 and a .765 OPS. The dropoff from Freese to Lopez is minimal.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Reply fail.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 5, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
good point
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 5, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
freese has booted his fair share this year.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 5, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Freese has been lucky,
but he has typically had a higher BABIP than average, even if not quite as high as his 2010 BABIP; whereas, Lopez’s .325 BABIP is five points higher than his career .320 BABIP. Lopez’s LD% is a career low, too.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Oh, well it seems as though Lopez has had a ton of balls that are killed right at people
I don’t really trust LD% for players as an evaluative stat, but yeah, it’s hard to be getting unlucky with a .325 BABIP.
Freese’s minor league BABIP’s are good yes, but those are always going to be inflated due to much worse defense and field conditions as well as worse pitching. Furthermore, his minor league BABIP hsould be regressed still.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 10, 2010 4:19 AM EDT up reply actions
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