Allen Craig and Blake Hawksworth: No-Doubt Home Runs, Doubtful Rotation Makeup
by DanUpBaby on Jul 20, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
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PrintI might be wrong here—I haven't yet run this by the number guys—but I'm relatively sure that those four home runs were more than the Cardinals hit across the entirety of May.
Really? Okay, okay—the producer tells me that the Cardinals actually hit 19 home runs in May, but for what it's worth those four home runs bring the July Cardinals to 18. They were already leading the monthly splits in slugging percentage, .428 against April's .421, so if it seems like this team is more exciting to watch than it's been in a while, it's because that's exactly the case.
Albert Pujols's home run was a classic; for a guy who's often (and justifiably) credited for being more than a conventional power hitter, a lot of the big home runs, from Brad Lidge on down, are balls that he's pulled toward a bullpen in left-field with a malicious uppercut swing. Allen Craig's—something about his profile, .300, 20 home runs, not a lot of walks, made me think of a line drive hitter, a poor man's Matt Holliday, but his home run came on a surprisingly pretty, lofty swing.
I'm excited about Allen Craig because for all his minor league consistency—if there were additional minor league levels after Memphis he could have moved up one a year and hit .300 with 25 home runs and 90 RBI indefinitely—I'm not sure at all what kind of player he'll be in the Major Leagues. Is he a guy who can kind of play third base? Will the power stick, or the average? No idea.
I was not excited about Blake Hawksworth walking the pitcher twice. And that, friends, is a segue. Print it.
Hawksworth has proven, if nothing else, that he can be Jeff Suppan. While Suppan has put up peripherals even worse than he had in Milwaukee—13 strikeouts, 12 walks, and four home runs in 30 innings—Hawksworth has done a decent impression of the old Jeff Suppan, who got just enough off-speed pitches past batters to stay relevant.
At 92 miles per hour in its last start, Hawksworth's fastball has finally come down off its relief buzz, but it's still fast enough for Major League success. What's been most important to his success hasn't been his fastball but his resurgent changeup, which remains nine to 10 miles per hour slower than his fastball. Yesterday, with his command still off and 10 hits falling in six innings, he got four swinging strikes out of 23 changeups and just one on his fastball. The cutter he's played with is still in progress—Brooks Baseball counted just four of them—and his curveball just isn't very good, but the changeup has gotten better and better as he's worked in the rotation.
The command, though. That could use some work. Hawksworth's command problems are puzzling because he just doesn't seem like the type; his fastball hits the corners when he's pitching well, he doesn't throw particularly hard or with a lot of movement or out of a goofy motion. And last night he walked Kyle Kendrick, of all people, twice on nine pitches. Eight of his 39 balls went to a pitcher who's hit .119 in his career (but with a .170 OBP!) It doesn't seem structural, and that's why it's frustrating.
Whatever the problem actually is, over his last three starts he's walked 10 against eight strikeouts, which isn't viable even from a long-term fifth starter. For a long-term fifth starter on a team that employs both Blake Hawksworth and Jeff Suppan, of course, it's a little more workable, even if Kyle Lohse somehow seems likely to return to the rotation on time.
If Brad Penny weren't being given the Troy Glaus treatment—when last available for comment about Penny, John Mozeliak laughed a little, made a face, theatrically pulled at his collar and said "eeeeeeeghhhhhhh..."—I'd say this rotation would just about have put to bed the idea that the Cardinals needed to trade for a Jeff Weaver type to fill out its rotation. But with Hawksworth and Suppan still pitching over their peripherals and Jaime Garcia's performance a fair question as he pushes past 100 innings, it's reasonable to wonder whether the Cardinals could use another middling starting pitcher, as an insurance policy and Tony La Russa's much-demanded long reliever if nothing else.
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So after an 'anvil' or 'piano' or whatever dropped on Freese's big toe, where does that leave us?
To start: great read DanUp. Can we somehow condition Allen Craig into playing a defensively average 3B? Can he hit for average at the ML level? Can he hit for power (his HR yesterday wasn’t exactly a ‘blast’, it was indeed an uppercut [lofty as DanUp called it] on a hanging breaking ball)? Is that even an option right now in TLR’s head?
I reallize that TLR loves him some Fat Miles and with Fat Miles out of options, he’s guaranteed a spot when he gets back off the DL (vomit). (wipes face and towels off keyboard) Yuck, so what do you do here? The OF is set when Luddy comes back (Holliday, Rasmus, Ludwick), but you have roster management problems when Freese and Luddy come off the DL (barring setbacks). The OF is set, but who will be the backups? And what will be the makeup of the IF?
OF:
Jay
Craig
Winn
Fat Miles (Mario after mushroom)
IF:
Greene
Skip
Boog
Miles (Regular Mario)
Lopex
Idealistically, Craig/Jay have played their way on to this roster and deserve a spot. And if you wanna go down that road, Miles and Stavinoha didn’t excellent ‘play’ their way into a spot now did they? Depends on your subjective definition of ‘play’? Amirite?
But ultimately, there is a huge decision to be made here. Somebody has to go. One option: trade someone. The ‘Who’ is not for me to decide… (On a random note, does anyone remember early last year [before Lil Duncan stopped humping world series trophies because of neck problems and Rick Ankiel got mugged by Busch Stadium’s left center field wall] when we were all complaining about having too many OF options? Yeah, Im trying not to get too excited about Jay and Craig yet).
Cards face Jamie Moyer today….but something tells me that Craig wont start 3 games in a row. Rasmus has never faced Moyer and Holliday should be back in the linenup. So Winn in RF then? Lets hope he doesnt ‘OF assist’ any HRs today for Carp…
'Why are you 40 with highlights?' - Scott Rolen during interview with Kevin Millar
by Heisenberg on Jul 20, 2010 6:37 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
The most pressing concern, roster-wise, at least in my opinion
is what to do with Winn? I think he’s actually been pretty decent, and he’s a guy I’d much rather have on the bench than Stavinoha (who, given the excellent work that Jay and Craig have put in during the last couple of weeks, probably should be released now). But there’s only room for two outfielders, and Jay has definitively “deserved” the backup CF/defensive substitute/occasional RF role ahead of Winn (even if Jay can’t hit from the right side at all, unlike “pretend switch-hitter” Winn).
I’m liking Craig and Jay as the best two backups, BUT that will (I believe) mean DFAing Stavinoha and Winn and, realistically, both are almost guaranteed to be picked up. That leaves us pretty lacking in OF depth, frankly, with only the broken Joe Mather (who really needs to spend the rest of the year in Memphis) and a handful of garbagey AAA guys (Shorey, Robinson etc.) as backups.
So, sadly, I think that probably means Craig has to go back to Memphis when Ludwick is healthy, because there’s really no way we can only carry one backup infielder (I’m assuming Greene, Ryan, Skip and Lopez are essentially shoe-ins now and there’s Freese to come back) and dropping both Winn and Stav off the roster will leave us badly lacking in backup outfield options.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 6:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I seriously doubt that anyone will claim Nick Stavinoha
We are talking about a 28 year old with a career .581 OPS in the majors (in nearly a half seasons worth of at bats), unimpressive minor league numbers, and who is a defensive liability in the fucking corner outfield. I seriously can’t think of one redeemable skill or source of potential that warrants Nick Stavinoha being on any major league roster.
If he were somehow claimed off waivers I would consider that a godsend. I do not want him anywhere near this team again. There is no reason to worry about him not providing depth, because he is more valuable to this team when he is not playing.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 20, 2010 6:58 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
But I thought you liked him?
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 7:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Are there any current Stav/Miles supporters on VEB?
Where’s Soonerfan?
'Why are you 40 with highlights?' - Scott Rolen during interview with Kevin Millar
I dont know that I'm a Stav supporter
But I do like the guy as a player, for some reason.
The player I would like least at #9 would be my sister’s cat, Captain Creamsicle. She does have a great work ethic and agility, but I’m really concerned that at 9 lbs., she’s too small to play safety in the NFL. She also bites way too often on play action and is easily distracted by someone waving string in the crowd. Lastly, her wonderlic score was pretty awful, answering "meow meow meow" for most of the questions- Dr. Brackish Okun
'For some reason' is about the best explanation for pro-Stav support.
But when that roster decision comes to who has to go….If not Stav, then who would you want gone?
'Why are you 40 with highlights?' - Scott Rolen during interview with Kevin Millar
I think he's fine
as a backup OF, if you don’t really have anyone else suitable to do the job. He’s probably the definition of replacement level, really. I just think we have several guys who are better, so he really shouldn’t be on our team.
I’d rather have him up than Shorey or Robinson, however, so in the meantime it’d be nice to be able to stash him in AAA, especially as we’re limited in high minors OF depth all of a sudden, with Jones falling off the face of the earth and Henley getting injured.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions
has it been decided that stav will not need surgery?
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
I thought I heard
that they were going to perform a face transplant with Allen Craig
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
what is his injury? i never even heard the specifics.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
apparently he has "a shoulder"
caused by “diving” for that ball.
I thought having a shoulder was a good thing. :shrug:
Really?
What does a broken chair have to do with Toronto earthquakes or peameal bacon?
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jul 20, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
There was a lot of hubbub about the Toronto earthquake
Mostly because the G20 summit was in town at the time, and Toronto never gets earthquakes. Sorry, it didn’t occur to me that VEB doesn’t all read reddit (because I’m an idiot). If you click the link at the top of that page, it goes to this picture of the “devastation” caused by the quake.
I believe he has contracted boneitis
Maybe one of our resident VEB doctors could expound on the prognosis for a boneitis injury?
sadly
the only cure is amputation. Or a good leeching.
Cardinals Baseball 2010: Why have only one 25th man when you can have four?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Jul 20, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
NURSE!
BLEED HIM!
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 5:21 AM EDT up reply actions
He's FAT
I would guess that if we released him, the best he would do is a minor league deal with a team that has infielders playing outfield in AAA.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
i mean
he’s not in the best shape, but he’s not exactly prince fielder. no need to be so harsh and yell it
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i know, for stick
i was make joke
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think soonerfan has more or less left
I got the feeling he was fighting an increasingly lone battle against the general opinion of most of the community on a lot of points.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
For the record,
Soonerfan was banned. The time had come.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
by azruavatar on Jul 20, 2010 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
that's too bad
Sooner was a bit surly, but i enjoyed his devil’s advocate approach. If I recall, he had his pot stirred by chalk a couple weeks ago.
He threw out some pretty
over the line statements there at the end. I don’t believe he would have been banned just because of differences of opinion.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
He just went from making arguments...
to calling people names.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
I think he got about as much he gave on the name-calling
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
you stay out of this, you lint-licker
I think I’ll miss Sooner
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
that's a brilliant commercial
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Sooner failed to properly express his opinion on multiple occasions
he’d received warnings prior to his ban and disregarded them.
To be clear, it had nothing to do with his opinions and everything to do with his delivery. He’d become a troll.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
Though his opinion that anything TLR did was a godsend and we should be bowing to his genius certainly hurt his cause
Not afraid to nitpick
Isn't it hilarious
that we’d ever need to ban someone from an internet message board? I understand why we do – when someone starts making it a place that other people don’t want to come and all that – but the idea is just really funny to me.
moderated message boards
old as the internet. they work, if you let them.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, how about that
It’s one thing to have different opinions than everyone else and I have no problem with someone defending them vigorously. I mean, look at viva and fourstick, they go at each other pretty good sometimes. I’m reasonably certain that Sooner’s TLR apologetics were approaching trolling. That’s not cool.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 20, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Common denominator = VEP
BAN HIM
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Why?
He seems like a decent dude. And he’s Jewish, to boot.
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jul 20, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
so he's good with numbers?
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
The way he pitched, he needed to be GREAT with numbers.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Jul 20, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
But, he had 65 wins in a 5-year period
from ‘04-’08, 7th most in the NL during that time!!! And we all know about WINS!!!
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jul 20, 2010 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
When's the last time his team missed the playoffs?!
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, but he had a 2.700 OPS
If you account for his offense, it makes sense. Marquis manufactured his own wins.
by Expatcardfan on Jul 20, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Speaking of Ex Braves Ex Cardinals
I once spilled nachos on Kent Mercker when I was a kid.
by Mulliganstew on Jul 20, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with all points...
but unfortunately, Tony LaRussa has the VEB Trump Card being the ‘decider’, while at the same time, holds the leash of GM John Mozeliak. Stavinoha is an aging bench bat who spends more time at McDonald’s than he does on the base paths. And takes better routes to the front of the buffet line than he does to flyballs (do you get it? he’s fat).
I would want Jay/Winn as regular backup OF for now. Unfortunately, I dont see TLR keeping Craig up in STL and will be sent down the second Luddy gets off the DL. When Cardinals decline to sign Ryan Ludwick next season (freeing up payroll for the eventual extension of Albert), all eyes will be on Jon Jay/Allen Craig to fill that spot and provide the offense.
'Why are you 40 with highlights?' - Scott Rolen during interview with Kevin Millar
by Heisenberg on Jul 20, 2010 7:18 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
obviously, stav needs to go
and this is a team with extra OF talent (middling or otherwise) and a lack of SP depth. a trade would be the optimal solution. I agree that with payroll issues, luddy is the best option (and what are the chances that we can sign luddy to a 2 or 3 year deal?) but payroll aside, I think we’re looking at Craig as the best bait. What might also be an option is selling high on Jay. Don’t get me wrong, I loves me some Justice, but I’m not sure he’s a permanent OF starter in place of luddy in the coming years, even if he his a mighty valuable bench / 4th OF option.
I think moving any of these three is possible, but I also think it really comes down to which player, if any, would net the club the best deal, something I’m not privy to judge. Which is a way of saying not a whole lot, I suppose. But I do know this team would’ve been better off if we had traded Ank while we had the chance.
Joe Morgan: "I've always said that the purpose of a minor league system is to help the big league club."
I don't think Stav has any value
the other two might bring something back, though. I’ve been a big advocate of trading Craig this year even though I really like him because realistically he’s probably more or less blocked here in the immediate future.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions
You're absolutely correct.
No one would give up anything for Stav in a trade. In fact, I bet he would even clear waivers. Right now, we may be looking at Jay’s peak value in terms of a trade. While I think he may be a very good 4th outfielder for us, it may be worth exploring. Craig seems met for the AL, and if trading nets us an AL starter, I’d be pleased. Keep in mind that these two (Jay and Craig) have become two of my favorite prospects, but I don’t see Craig sticking here unless TLR plays Craig at third.
As an aside, do you know what I find funny? Folks talking about the last time Craig played third and whether he practiced there. When was the last time Stavinoha played catcher before TLR used him as a catcher?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Emergency catcher and backup 3B are two separate issues.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
Sure, they are. But isn't it, at this point, an emergency third baseman, too?
Skip didn’t start training for second base until February, if I’m not mistaken. Then, he trained in Spring Training and was annointed the starting second baseman. He hadn’t played infield in five years and, when he did, it was shortstop. Craig is two years removed from playing third base every day, and has trained there this Spring Training. I actually think Craig would take to third if played there tonight better than Skip took to second last season.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Fair point. Couldn't remember when Skip began his shift.
And he would be better than the current emergency option — Miles.
It just looks like the trend is that Craig is a LF/RF/1B per the club.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
I agree.
I also agree that, for whatever reason, the organization has decided that Craig is not a third baseman. Nonetheless, this is the organization that shifted Skip from left field to shortstop in two months, auditioned Joe Mather at third base, and then played Mark DeRosa at third base (even though DeRosa can’t really field third base very well at all). And TLR also has played Aaron Miles there for some reason. Oh, and Felipe does not look very good defensively at third base. I would argue that Craig must be at least as good as many of these players when taking offense and defense into account.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
You forgot,
Joe Thurston
I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons
Thank you.
I don’t how I did that.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
you forgot,
know.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on Jul 20, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
We all do what we can to move past those frightening times
Albert Pujols probably has cold sweats thinking about those up-the-line throws Thursty used to unleash from third.
I know that Thurston tried hard over there and I respect him for his efforts, but man oh man the org. made an error playing him at third as much as they did even if it was because of cascading injuries. Could Craig really have done much worse?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 20, 2010 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Such things really make me wonder what's in the minds of the FO
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
I really hope that Craig is going out of his way
To get work in at 1B, 3B, and OF. He should be taking grounders at third base all the time, and working with Oquendo over there. I don’t care if the team thinks he’s not a starting third baseman — being able to play there in a pinch would make him a much more valuable major leaguer, which I hope he realizes.
Well, I read some of the old scouting reports on him
from FR, and they seemed to indicate that he wasn’t pretty over there, but he made the plays he was supposed to make. Also, they mentioned that his arm was not a plus, but was adequate.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
I like having a 3Bman that makes more than just the "plays he is supposed to make"
But if that’s true, Craig seems like he should be a viable option at 3B in terms of backing up or playing in a pinch (like, um, while Freese is on the DL, for example).
I think Craig could be a reasonable facsimile of Spezio
Hopefully minus the drugs and alcohol.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
Motte can be the emergency third basemen
I hope we take full advantage of the rehab period when Stavinoha comes back. Hopefully we this can be pushed back until sep 1st.
I would fear for Pujols on the balls Motte did field.
Also, the fans directly behind the first base bag.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
by TBender on Jul 20, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
the tarp is on fire!!
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Mo is the decider here
Tony prefers Craig over Stavinoha. He has shown that when both players were on the team. He has batted Craig 3rd in his lineup. Logic will point to that give the choice of having Stavinoha or Craig on the team Tony would pick Craig.
Ludwick will be back before Stavinoha, so if Craig gets sent down at the time ludwick comes back it isn’t because TLR prefers Stavinoha over Craig. It will be because Mo and TLR prefer Ludwick over Craig. (in all honesty it should be Miles that goes away. And it still might be.)
Now your point that TLR likes Stavinoha is more than likely true. Because Mo wouldn’t have him on the roster if Tony said he can’t play him. But to throw all the Blame on TLR because he has a spade and Mo on a leash is just completely unfair and untrue.
by Evilfrog on Jul 20, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
More accurate,
would be to say that “Tony and Mo prefer Winn, Jay, and Ludwick over Craig,” wouldn’t it?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yes.
I think the lack of options for Stavinoha is the biggest thing he has going for him. And the whole, “needs to play everyday” thing is the biggest thing Craig has going against him.
At least at the beginning of the season. Stavinoha has more than likely made himself unattractive enough (baseball wise) that he would clear wavers if we sent him down. And Craig put up enough results after being sent back down that the whole “needs to play everyday” can be looked over. Minor leagues should be wrapping up soon correct?
i thought we determined
waayyy back in ST when Mo said that Stavinoha “has no place in Memphis,” he is ether on the big club or gone, that Stavinoha was out of options.
and I'm almost positive that Brain feldmen
said yesterday on 101.1 that Stavinoha was out of options. Of course, he was suggesting that Boog would be the odd man out when they activated Ludwick… so who knows what he was smoking.
He first came up in 08. That's one gone. Then in 09. Two gone.
This year he’s been on the 25-man the whole year, so he should still have one option.
אנא טוני לא יותר ט.א.ס.ס
anyone care to explain
how hawk is out of options? he made his MLB debut last year
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Been on the 40 man roster 3 seaons
That is how it works. How long you been on the 40 man roster.
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 20, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
right
unless you were on the 25 man for the whole season. Rasmus didn’t use up any of his options last year because he started on the 25 man, and stayed their for the whole year.
Correct?
An option is used each year
the player is on the 40 man roster, whether the player is promoted to or demoted from the major league roster.
it appears to be so
if a player is on the 40 man roster for a whole year but not on the 25 man roster, he loses an option.
So to answer the question of “does Nick Stavinoha have options left?” We would need to know when he was added to the 40 man. Because if he was on the 40 for 2007 while spending all of his time in Memphis, he would be out of options.
he was not on the 40 man roster
In 2007, I used the way back machine to look. So he got on in 2008, Which means for the 2010 season he has an OPTION REMAINING
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 20, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
THIS IS REALLY GREAT NEWS
unfortunately, its probably meaningless. i don’t see them sending him down to memphis now, when they didn’t do so before.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
it is great news
except Mo has stated he doesn’t want him in memphis. Actually, that’s not bad news either. Just draw out the rehab assignment and then cut the cord after this year.
Really, I do.
I dunno where people have got the idea TLR thinks Stav > Jay/Craig. The only times Stav has started have been when we’ve basically had no-one else healthy to play in a corner outfield spot. I think he’s started about 2 or 3 games this year.
Jay and Craig have pretty much ALWAYS started over Stav when they’ve been available and on the roster. I’m pretty sure that their recent performances mean they’re ahead of Stav on the pecking order, and it seems that both have impressed TLR and especially Big Mac.
I’d be very surprised if Stavinoha, coming off injury, goes straight back onto the 25-man, especially when you consider how good Randy Winn has been (0.5 WAR now in meagre playing time, pretty good for a free pickup). I think Stav is way down the pecking order.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 5:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Does Mo know this?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
June 22, 2008
per the mothership transaction log and Cot’s Contracts is the date the Stav was added to the 40 man roster.
Cardinals.com article
key paragraph near the bottom
Because Stavinoha is not on the 40-man roster, he will have to be added there as well as the 25-man. To make room for him on the 40-man, Chris Carpenter will be transferred from the 15-day disabled list to the 60-day.
Now we know, Stav can be demoted and the Cards don’t have to wrestle with the DFA decision until Spring Training.
Who cares?
I’d just give him his outright release anyway. He has no value to this club at all.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Where else can you find such a great goatee?
Backup DH’s and emergency catchers do not grow on trees here in these States United.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 20, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Replacement level players have "value".
They’re not worth paying any money to over the league minimum, but that’s all he’s earning.
I’d rather have Stavinoha on the roster in an injury crisis rather than Shorey, Robinson or even Mather, and those guys are the next in line in Memphis. Unless he’s blocking a good OF prospect in Memphis (as occurred with Descalso last year when they brought him up and didn’t play him at 2B) he might as well stay down there as depth. I don’t think the “blocking” argument is valid, really, as there’s not a significant prospect I can think of in AA or AAA in the OF who’s not injured (Henley), stuck in AA due to suckitis (Jones), or likely to merely be Stavinoha mark II (Luna).
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 5:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Not 'til September.
Hence, September call-ups. (I also know because on Sept. 3-6, the Redbirds will be in Iowa and I will be in attendance.)
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I agree with that
Craig has started plenty when he’s been up. Stav has been used almost exclusively as a pinch hitter and really hasn’t started on the field much, except when Ludwick got injured. I think TLR would probably rather have Craig on the team, FWIW, and the noises we heard from the org tends to suggest to me that the front office (and maybe, therefore, Mo) prefer Craig in AAA to get regular ABs, and think Stav/Craig are somewhat interchangeable as pinch-hitters, with Craig being the guy with more future (and who should thus be in AAA).
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Well put
TLR is a crazy man sometimes, but I think it’s clear that he believes Craig is a starting caliber player more than Stav. Even at the beginning of the season when both were on the team, Stav almost never saw starts and Craig got a few.
I really hope this team isn't counting on Jon Jay to be a good right field option against righties
When Cardinals decline to sign Ryan Ludwick next season (freeing up payroll for the eventual extension of Albert), all eyes will be on Jon Jay/Allen Craig to fill that spot and provide the offense.
Jay’s .131 career ISO in the minors (.146 against righties) and so-so on-base skills does not give me hope that he would be very good as a major league corner outfielder, where a measure of power is expected. Sure, he’ll play good defense for a corner OFer, but consider that Luddy’s career MAJOR LEAGUE ISO is .227 and he plays plus defense as well. Jay/Craig would be a large step down, as either one gives back a lot on one side of the ball.
I see Jay as MAYBE an average major league centerfielder, at his absolute peak, but we’re a little crowded there at the moment. On the Cardinals, he should probably (hopefully) not be anything other than a fill-in for a much stronger player.
Just to add to the point
The MLE for Jay’s AAA numbers is .257/.308/.359 — not exactly looking like a good starting option, or even a very good platoon guy.
To be fair to him
(and I agree with you that people are seriously over-rating Jay based on a few dozen MLB at-bats), a large proportion of his AAA experience came last year, adjusting to the new level and I believe also carrying an injury for much of the season. In 2010, he’s been considerably better. Whilst I don’t think he’s going to be an average major league hitter, I think that MLE is probably slightly underestimating his skill level (I think his BA will be higher than .257 as a major league player, which will pull his other numbers up somewhat, although I actually think that MLE might slightly over-estimate his ISO patience).
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 5:33 AM EDT up reply actions
stav would be most valuable to us by playing for the reds
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Jul 20, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 10 recs
Stavinoha's range doesn't even play on the bench
I heard on good authority that he was once called on to pinch hit but didn’t get a good enough jump so he didn’t quite get there. True story. Trueish.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 20, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
should have seen the route he took to the batter's box
he rolled at least twice
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
dammit, that makes sense
sadly, craig will have to go back to memphis – we can’t just release winn at this point.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
If Winn's primary purpose
is to start in CF against LHPs then he should be released. If he is a LH bat off the bench then keep him around and either release Miles or send Greene back to Memphis.
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
What is Rasmus' line against lefties this year?
I’m betting it’s a helluva lot better than ‘09, from what I’ve seen on the boob.
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jul 20, 2010 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Colby's career minor league split against lefties:
.275/.371/.455
So assuming he’ll hit worse against the lefties in the bigs because their breaking balls are better (and they are less afraid to throw them, in theory), I’d say Colby is right about what I think we could reasonably expect him to produce against lefties this year, probably even a little better.
(Even with a relatively good year so far against lefties, his career ML line against them is still a rather putrid .196/.262/.327. Yuck.)
I agree
He’s a bad CFer anyway and if TLR wants to give Colby a rest against a LHP he can always play Craig in RF and have Luddy fake CF for a game. I think Colby’s shown he’s not an out vs. LHP anyway so unless he’s too sore to play, leave him in there.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 20, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Winn has been really good for us.
He has a .378 wOBA (something like that), good BB/K ratio, and his results haven’t been due to BABIP luck (he’s right around his career numbers on that front).
Randy Winn was a 4+ WAR player just two years ago. He was nearly average by WAR last year despite having a horrendously unlucky year on balls in play. I think people are really under-rating him; he’s not flashy but he’s been consistently pretty effective. Given his age a major fall-off is possible but I just think people are caught up in the “Oh, fucking hell, another washed-up TLR veteran man-crush” narrative to realise that we actually managed to get a really productive bench player for free.
And no, I don’t think he should be starting in CF, or against LHPs either. But he’s probably a better option than Jay in RF against RHP at this point, Jay’s crazy-good recent run notwithstanding.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 5:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Winn is catching up to Stav in PH homers
Please hit one more, Randy! You must oust Stav in this department!
And Craig should definitely start today IMO
he’s always been very competent against lefties, and Winn really isn’t.
Regarding your other point about trades – I really feel that Craig is the most tradeable of our backup OF options, and if we’re putting anyone on the block, maybe he’s the guy. If he could (perhaps packaged with a lower minors guy) bring back something in the way of a cost controlled back-of-the-rotation starter, that would be a move I’d make.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 6:55 AM EDT up reply actions
One thousand times yes.
Craig is the type of hitter who will help us exorcise the Bud Norris Club (which, I assume includes soft-tossing lefties).
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Would it be absurd...
to try and trade Luddy right now? If we’re thinking about 2011? Ludwick will likely get a substantial raise for next season in his final year of arby with a nice rebound in 2010. He’ll make somewhere between $8-10M I’d guess. Do we trade him now, wait till the offseason, or ??? I think it’d be wise to put Craig back in Memphis, keep Ludwick, Jay and Wynn on the roster and send Stav to the glue factory. We will likely need another OF backup at some point this season, and I’d rather have Craig avail. I still think Ludwick is gone before opening day next year.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
Yeah, it would be absurd.
Luddy’s offense and defense have been quite good this year and it makes little sense for a team trying to win the World Series to trade such a cheap and skilled player at this point in the season.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 20, 2010 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes
Trading him in the offseason would be a smart decision, but right now would be incredibly risky.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 20, 2010 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
I’d like to do that. Especially if he comes back and has a really strong finish to the year.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
agreed.
Joe Morgan: "I've always said that the purpose of a minor league system is to help the big league club."
What are we realistically getting back in return though?
Certainly not much, and he’s probably at least a type B after next season unless something horrible happens, and he might even sneak into type A if he has a huge season. I think the risk that he’s a 4 WAR player next year AND could bring back 1 or 2 draft picks if he leaves is well worth the price of keeping him on the roster.
FWIW, I’m not sure a Craig/Jay platoon could be as valuable as Ludwick, but it’s entirely possible.
If we’re dealing him, it’s a clear salary dump. At which point I would hope that the club would look to add that savings back in by addressing needs.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
we still talking about luddy
currently type A at 73.8. lowest type A
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
This year he would be
I’m not so sure about next year — there will be a better class for position players next year, and remember, this is a year to year thing.
I think he would have repeat his performance from this season at the very least to qualify for Type A, and I’m not sure that would be enough.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
there will be a better class for position players next year,
what do you mean? it’s not like he’s only rated against free agents. unless you’re just talking about players who are rookies this year
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
There are not a lot of position players having great seasons this year
I would guess that’s going to change next year. There are a lot of big bats that have missed significant time this year as well — (Utley, Tulo, Ellsbury, Sizemore, Heyward, Beltran, Choo, etc). That’s going to impact where the line is for Type A players next year if all those guys are healthy and players like Aramis Ramirez don’t totally suck like they have this year.
I think he’ll have to outperform his 2010 to be Type A. Much of the reason he’s Type A right now is because of his 2008, which won’t factor in after next season as Elias only measures 3 years.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
do these elias projections include 2008?
i don’t think they do. hell, the guy right below him is angel pagan. i don’t think 2008 is included. and most of those guys listed aren’t in the same group as luddy. and several, like beltran are missing so much time they can’t catch up. i don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he could maintain his type A status. maybe not necessarily likely, but probably not unlikely, either
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Yes, they do
Elias rankings are the last three seasons, weighted. So this years would include 2008, 2009, and 2010.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
nah
After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics.
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he’s providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Here’s a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through July 11th, 2010.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/07/elias-rankings-at-the-break.html
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Ok
I still stand by my point — he’ll have to be as good or better than this year to be Type A after next year.
Honestly, we might be better off if he’s type B. I don’t see a lot of teams looking to sign a 34 year old type A corner outfielder for $10M+ per season. Luddy might just take arbitration at that point.
Pagan has been very good the last two seasons, using the Elias Stats.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
That'll be Luddy's one shot...
at a 3+ year contract. I think he’ll take it. I also think he just needs to outperform 2009 to remain a type A.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
Thing is
You don’t know how he’s going to finish this season yet. Considering he’s been hurt and that he’s a slow starter at the beginning of the year, I can easily see him falling to Type B at the end of this season, meaning that he’s going to have to outperform this season to be Type A next year.
I’d much rather he was a B. He’s more likely to leave and more teams will be in the market for him. But if he’s going to rip off a 5 WAR season in 2011, I’d take that too.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
he's going to have to miss a lot more time
for it to hurt his elias rankings. missed time does not affect one’s ranking until a fairly significant amount of time
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
yeah
Cumulative statistics may be adjusted for players who spent time on the disabled list, restoring stats for up to 60 days of missed playing time.
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
This
They count PA’s. They also count counting stats. They normalize for DL time, but I’m talking about when he returns from the DL: Do you just expect him to start raking the shit out of the ball immediately when he returns? Probably not.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
They adjust for 60 days missed
They don’t adjust his stats when he comes back from the DL as if he never missed time and give him the benefit of the doubt.
I linked to the “reverse engineered” method.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
well,
that’s why he rehabs. he may not be jacking dongs all over the place his first two games back, but i’m pretty sure he’s not going to revel in such mediocrity for long enough to knock a full win of his season totals
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
A full win on his season totals is measured by defense
Which Elias does not measure.
You’re also assuming that nobody below him on the rankings right now plays any better than they are currently. Considering some of the names down there, I don’t think that’s a good bet either.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
what i'm taking into account
is that about 70% of the stats that his elias projections are currently based on are from 2009 where his wOBA was 20 points lower. so, if he can finish this season around .350 and have a .350 year next year (both maybe a little conservative) he’s a type A
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
i dunno what the elias stats are specifically
but i would say that he does not have to be as good as or better than this year to maintain. the large majority of the data that this is based on is 2009. there’s only about a half a season of 2010 data to rank him based on. if he’s exactly as good the rest of this season and 2011 as he’s been the first half, he’s an easy type A
whether or not him being type A is beneficial to us or not remains to be seen
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
He should...
just have to outperform 2009 to maintain a type A status. The rankings are based mainly on the two previous seasons. I suppose the question is how much of his current ranking is based on 2008.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
these are just projections
from MLBTR. i don’t think they’re including 2008 at all because they are trying to project how the players will finish, so the 2008 data won’t have any effect on how they finish
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
The only way i would deal luddy
Is if we traded him for MIF and prospects. And then used the salary relief to grab a SP like Dan Haren.
by rumors on Jul 20, 2010 4:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If he comes back and plays like gangbusters...
…I’m sure a trade partner could be found. He’s a good player and good enough that other teams surely take notice.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 20, 2010 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought so, too...
The way I see it…the only tradeable OFer we have is Ludwick, unless we’re going to pick up a scrapheap guy next year. I don’t think we can afford to swap Jay or Craig for budgetary reasons…these two will comprise our RF/4OF spot next season, and hopefully Mather will continue to progress into our corner IF/OF bench guy.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on Jul 20, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
if anything, that might undo any positive gains in clubhouse morale
It’s going to put the thought into every guy that we’re so hard up that we have to trade core role players just to stay in the race.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
You kinda answered your own question, actually
Ludwick will likely get a substantial raise for next season in his final year of arby with a nice rebound in 2010. He’ll make somewhere between $8-10M I’d guess.
This would be a guy you’d want to trade, not trade for, right? So what could we possibly expect to get in return for him?
If we can’t get anything in return for him that helps us right now, then why not just keep him? He’s on track to be a 3.5 to 4.0 WAR player this year, even after missing time. That’s a pretty valuable corner outfielder, even at $8-$10M for 2011.
If we’re dealing, I’d rather move Craig and Jay for a non-rental arm (or a rental arm that we can extend for another season on the cheap, like Jake Westbrook). I think both Jay and Craig could be attractive for a team looking to shed a salary (like Cleveland), and both could help their new club immediately.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
if i were a contender
in need of a solid RF, i would definitely be interested in trading for luddy
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
If you were a contender
Who are you giving up for Ludwick, right now, that’s going to help the Cardinals, right now?
That’s my point. Only contenders would be interested, and contenders aren’t giving up a major league player for another one, they’ll be giving up prospects. It seems really foolish to deal a 3-4 WAR player for prospects when you’re in a heated division race with a half game lead.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
right
it would have to be some sort of 3-way trade. like my dream nolasco-luddy-padres deal
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
So the Pads get Luddy, we get Nolasco, and the Marlins get
prospects from both teams? Who are we giving up in that trade?
I can’t see the Marlins wanting any of our outfield prospects, or Brian Anderson. I’m guessing that either the Pads are kicking in some starting pitching prospects or we’re kicking in Descalso (who I’m not willing to part with, imo) or a couple of minor league relievers like Sanchez and Salas.
I think getting Westbrook for someone like K-Mac and a C prospect is a much better trade.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
i was thinking anderson from us
but i would part with descalso or salas/samuel. no sanchez
and then the pads would kick in another B to B+ prospect
it couldn’t take too much to pry nolasco away from the marlins after his 2009 and the equally unlucky first half of 2010. he’s also about to hit his second arb year after making 3.8MM this year
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
check that
2011 will be his third arb year, so i guess he would be a free agent for the 2012 season unless he’s a super two. i still think it’s worth it and i still think the marlins would like to get some value for nolasco because they probably can’t afford a $5-6MM payday with another uggla arb year and johnson’s contract
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
he's only at 3.142 MLB service time
i don’t really know what that implies regarding his arb status, though. i’m guessing he’s not super two and he’s gone after next season
he’s stilla number 2 type pitcher when not getting incredibly unlucky. get him in busch, under dunc and a little better luck and his ERA cruises a little closer to that 3.35 FIP
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
That's where a three-team trade makes sense...
Someone mentioned Stephen Drew earlier, or Ricky Nolasco. The Padres would be a great fit for Ludwick. Personally I don’t think we can risk trading Ludwick in season, but should explore it in the offseason.
Sorry prophet for posting pretty much the same thing you did.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
I don't think you could get much for Jay right now...
and especially not Craig. Neither of them were very high on any prospect lists, and though they look to be quality major leaguers, they don’t look to be much above average. Ludwick OTOH is nearly an all-star caliber player on a low cost short-term deal. I think you could get much more in return for him than you could for Jay or Craig, and perhaps Jay and Craig.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
is it wrong for me to think you could get more for craig
than jay? or is this wrong?
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Jay hits LH and can play CF
He’s got to have more value than Craig, who is a corner outfielder, and really shouldn’t play anything but LF because of his weenie arm.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Craig's got a lot more...
power, and a bit better minor league track record. I’d say there’s not much difference between their values, other than Jay has been outstanding in more time at STL this season.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
Jay hits for average!
Quick, trade him to the Royals for Kila!
Um…and then…trade Kila to someone else for something, I guess.
Hmmmm. . .
I honestly think that I’d prefer to keep Craig than ‘waste’ him on a cost-controlled back of the rotation starter. We’d be selling low on Craig right now – seriously, look at his major league stat line – and I think that I would prefer to stumble along in the back of the rotation with Suppan and Hawk and keep the offensive depth / flexibility / Ludwick arby insurance that Craig represents.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
We'd be selling lower on him when he's a 27-year old 4th OFer
at least now he’s got 6 years of team control left, and is coming off a good year and a half in AAA. I’m not sure his MLB record in a handful of ABs is that meaningful, even for some of the dumber GMs out there.
I’m really not convinced that he’s more valuable (especially to us, when we have Luddy and possibly Jay who can play OF, but absolutely no pitching next year save for Carp, Waino and Garcia) than a decent back-of-the-rotation starter. If we could get someone approaching league average for him I’d pull the trigger.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I suspect. . .
that if Craig can replicate his AAA numbers for the remaining half a season in a significant number of PAs (i.e. 300/370/500ish), then he will have a lot more value than he does now.
And if he does hit 300/370/500 over the second half in, say, 150 PAs, he will be delivering far more value than whatever 4/5 starter that you can get for him right now this minute. After all, he’s hitting 167/235/300, which compares unfavorably to Nick the Stick’s 256/295/344, whom we all agree would clear waivers.
I’m sure some of the smarter GMs out there would see Craig as a talent based on his minor league hitting numbers, but optics still matter, and selling him to a fan base as being a fair value for someone like a Fausto Carmona is a pretty tall order, IMHO.
And if the offer on the table is Craig for Westbrook. Eh, no thanks. If I can get Carmona, OTOH, I’d think hard about that.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
The odds of Craig putting up his PCL line are long
And comparing his line in 30 some PAs with a .167 BABIP is something no one (with intelligence) is going to do in evaluating him.
Not afraid to nitpick
I disagree with your subject line. . .
but I agree with the premise in the text box.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
But. . .
he has the same exact line no matter where he plays: PCL, AA, slow-pitch softball league, wherever.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you're joking
But it seems disingenuous to say that just because Craig has so far posted similar lines in all of his minor league stops that he somehow is a player that magically performs the exact same way regardless of competitive level. Just way too many variables involved there.
sure
but it’s also not out of the realm of imagination to say that he could continue that upward progression into the next level and be that .300/.370/.500 guy for 2-3 years
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Yep, certainly
It’s important, of course, to remember that he just turned 26 years old. Doesn’t mean he can’t improve, of course — but he’s an old-ish prospect now, and time is not on his side.
he's still a couple years from his "prime"
not quite joe mather or stav
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I'm joking some, sure. . .
but I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that a guy who seemingly hits 300/370/500 at every level, and who has sprayed line drives at a prodigious rate so far at the ML level (obligatory SSS, to be sure) can be one of those guys who simply hits the ball well.
Park factors are important, but they aren’t THAT important.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah that's fine
I just wanted to make sure you weren’t using “he hits like that, that’s just how he works” as an actual argument. I like Craig’s ability, too, but he is getting old for a prospect.
Ryan Howard was 25 during his rookie season.
just saying.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
What?
Ryan Howard is the same age as Albert Pujols (and was actually born earlier)?
Remember how we reacted to Howard’s extension?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
(also, he didn't turn 25 until the offseason after his rookie year)
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
no, he was born november 1979, his rookie season was 2005
he actually turned 26 in the offseason
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
oh, right
only 42 PAs in ’04
my haste has become my demise
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Ryan Howard was also blocked by Jim Thome who had hit .280 .408 .607 the previous 3 years
Not afraid to nitpick
i'm not comparing craig to howard AT ALL.
i’m merely suggesting that 26 is not that old.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
Yeah, obviously Craig still has time to improve
Although Howard was hitting .371/.467/.690 in AAA that year, and hit .291/.380/.637 between AA and AAA the previous season. He basically knocked the goddamn door down, even to the point that they got rid of Jim Thome to make room. Craig’s AAA line this year is nice (.308/.370/.520), but not mind-blowing.
And he was doing it in the IL
I don’t think people are properly adjusting for how ridiculous the PCL can be.
Not afraid to nitpick
Yeah, they are
People who have actually researched this beyond “well he seems to do the same at every level!” have actually determined that park/league factors matter…….a lot. His .270/.320/.440 AAA MLE is probably about what we should be expecting.
Not afraid to nitpick
And I'd take that for a basically free player
who has yet to hit his prime. Luddy Jr, almost!!!
I tend to agree with the above commenters, though. Some hitters just seem to adjust well and don’t see the drop that others do, just as some pitchers seem to get MLB hitters out at similar rates to their minor league rates.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Oh I'd take that line from him, he's likely a productive player
But guessing that he’s going to adjust well or not adjust well is just that……….total guessing and we are wearing the rosiest rose colored glasses if we PROJECT him to actually do that.
There are also a lot of guys who can hit pretty well in the minors and blow in the majors…
Not afraid to nitpick
That does look a lot like Luddy's 2009 line
Just sayin’. I know, worse defense than Lud, obviously. And I love me some Luddy, don’t get me wrong.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I wouldn't trade Craig for Carmona
he’s too expensive and not very good.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 5:44 AM EDT up reply actions
And another thing. . .
I’m not sold on Jay; I like his defense, and I think there’s a 25% chance that he’s one of those rare guys who hits better in the majors than he did in the minors. (Chris Duncan was another one, FWIW.), but I think Craig has a better than 50% chance to be what he was in the minors while being par to sub-par defensively at a corner OF spot.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
too bad he's not subpar defensively
he’s better than anything the cards have in the OF, according to the metrics
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
no not really
his minor league defensive stats are great
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Craig??
Oh, and minor league defensive stats are, well, minor league defensive stast.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
huh?
you’r saying that jay will dramatically decrease fielding in the majors? im done arguing with you
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Reading comprehension, man. . .
my comment about fielding was directed at Allen Craig, not the Chief Justice.
Are you saying that Allen Craig won’t be sub-par defensively in a corner OF spot?
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
yeh craig is probably gonna be average to below average fielding-wise
my bad
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
ok
no problem.
at least we’ve upped the word count in this comments section.
woot!
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Chris Duncan was not another one
Robinson Cano is, Hanley is… They sustained their production in the majors
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
????
Chris Duncan (A): 274/342/440
Chris Duncan (AA): 284/383/466
Chris Duncan (AAA)*: 267/358/462
Chris Duncan (ML-pre-injury): 273/358/527
- - not counting various rehab stints and post STL days, which would have brought these numbers way down.
Mainly because he was more of a slugger, the healthy Chris Duncan was a much better hitter at the ML level than at any level of the minors.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
We can't say for sure that he was better though... the sample size is small enough that it's very likely that he played over his head for a stretch
Robinson Cano and Hanley have sustained that pace
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
????
Dude, healthy Chris Duncan hit better in the majors than he did in the minors.
I don’t care whether he did it because of his true talent level, or because he only faced #5 starters, or because he was on HGH, roids, and a diet of spinach and liver, but there is no denying that he did it, over a level of 600+ PAs.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Bo Hart hit better in the majors than he did in the minors
There’s a difference in people who come up to the Majors and “get it,” and people who come up to the Majors and outperform their true talent level for awhile and then flame out
Chris Duncan flamed out pretty hard, yeah? It might’ve been due to injury or regression or whatever, but he did. That’s why it’s hard for me to group him with Hanley and Cano, who have legitimately sustained that production over a long period of time
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
There's a difference between...
flaming out, and a debilitating injury. Bo Hart played over his head for a month or two. Chris Duncan played at an all star level for a season and a half then suffered a string of injuries. The two situations are in no way similar.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
No, I get that. But how certain are we that his struggles were completely due to injury?
I don’t know, and that’s why I don’t put him in with the other guys. BTW, his HR/FB in 2006 was 29.3% and 19.8% in 2007. Average was 10.7%
That’s a pretty fair argument for him playing over his head and having an elevated SLG, yeah?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
At the end. . .
the dude’s neck was hurt so bad that he eventually had to have a metal plate installed so that it fused his vertebrae together. It was career-threatening. Severity isn’t everything, but c’mon, be reasonable here.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure
but I can rattle off hundreds of players who’ve come up, played over their head for a couple of seasons in the bigs without having similar minor league numbers, and then flamed out completely never to be heard from again.
Sure, he had an injury, but there’s plenty of evidence that he may have just really played over his head for about 6 months in a row, and then began to show his true talent level, it’s just that happened to coincide with him getting hurt.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
And what is this. . .
“plenty of evidence” of which you speak?
It sounds like conjecture.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
How about the fact that he pretty much sucked horribly
after those first six months in the big leagues?
You don’t know that it was all because of injuries — THAT’S conjecture, my friend.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
six months?
it was 2006 and the first four months of 2007.
From the September 18, 2007 P-D:
Sep. 18—Cardinals left fielder Chris Duncan will have season-ending surgery Thursday to repair a sports hernia, the club said Monday.
Duncan has suffered from the hernia for most of two months
Duncan’s 2007 monthly splits:
Split G GS PA BA OBP SLG OPS
April/March 22 20 90 .317 .378 .524 .902
May 22 18 83 .233 .325 .493 .818
June 21 15 70 .246 .343 .541 .884
July 24 19 85 .348 .459 .681 1.140
August 28 15 76 .191 .276 .265 .541
Sept/Oct 10 7 28 .091 .286 .136 .422
It’s not conjecture. Correlation does not equak causation, certainly. But it is also much more than conjecture. Conjecture, OTOH, can certainly be a throw away statement like “there’s plenty of evidence that he may have just really played over his head for about 6 months in a row, and then began to show his true talent level” without providing such evidence.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Um, yeah -- 6 months, or roughly one full MLB season's worth of PA's
- In 2006 he came up in the middle of June and hit .293/.363/.589/.952. That’s about 3.5 months.
- In 2007, he started with the team on opening day and hit .288/.380/.547/.927 in the first half……then .209/.311/.367/.677 in the second half, apparently due to injury — but you don’t really know that, now do you? Keep in mind he’s the son of a coach (and one who threw a fit when out FO dumped his son in a deal that was very good for the organization, so he very well could have had a hand in protecting his son by claiming his injury occurred two months earlier. We have NO idea, therefore you’re postulating that the information you’re getting is correct, coming from an organization that has a dubious history with injury reporting as it is)
- Since the start of 2008, he’s hit .237/.337/.361/.698, in about the same number of PA’s that he had from June 2006 to July 2007 Now, you can claim that this is all due to injuries, and you might be right. I can also make the claim, which is backed up by the data, that he simply played over his head those first two months and wasn’t ever going to sniff a .850 OPS again, much less .900.
At his very, very peak, he was a poor man’s Ryan Klesko: A terrible defensive player that hits left handed but can’t hit left handed pitching to save his life.
Would you also make the claim that Rick Ankiel’s problems were all due to him running into outfield walls and getting hurt? Because his first four months in the show looked very similar to Duncan’s. Then pitchers figured him out and he hasn’t been the same player since. Or he ran into a wall and hasn’t been healthy since.
Whatever, I’m done with this.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Right. I'm not discounting your hypothesis completely
But look at the HR/FB numbers in the years he was healthy. You still don’t think he played over his head?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Given his plate discipline. . .
and his ability to hit fastballs really hard, and his ability to see a lot of fastballs thanks to batting in front of Albert Pujols most of the time, no, I don’t think he played over his head.
Come to think of it, I wonder if his better performance in the majors was almost entirely the confluence of his very good plate discipline (which was present consistently in the high minors), being a good fastball hitter, and hitting almost exclusively in front of Pujols.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Why would his very good discipline benefit him in the majors and not the minors?
And fourstick already debunked the second part of that
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
did that fanpost
ever reach the point of digging through pitch f/x to find out for sure?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
his very good plate discipline. . .
benefitted him in both. It was the increased slugging that was the difference in his major league performance and his minor league performance.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
And that increased SLG couldn't possibly be due to a lucky few months of
an insane 29% HR/FB%?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
That fanpost didn't debunk anything
All it measured was the cumulative numbers of the two spot versus the team total and the league total. There was absolutely no measurement of how hitters did in the two spot versus other spots.
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
There's also just verbal logic
I’ve posted this already:
People think that there’s a “Pujols effect” because people don’t want to have men on base when Pujols comes to bat, so they’ll give the #2 hitter more pitches to hit. Which means that they’ll get more hits. Which means that there will be more people on base when Pujols comes to bat.
It’s a logical fallacy, and there’s no reason it should have any effect
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
then tell me why
the weighted tOPS+ for the two spot over the past four seasons ranges from 106-120.
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
because the 2 spot. . .
was an amalgamation of different hitters hitting in front of Pujols and, when he missed games while hurt, other players.
not a particularly convincing fanpost imho
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Well first of all
There’s going to be a lot of noise. I don’t know how many PA got in one spot vs. another
Second of all, with as small of sample sizes that we’re using, 106 is almost negligible
Third of all, they’re not even getting better pitches to hit; Steve Sommer showed that they got about 1% more fastballs in that spot, which is also negligible
You can’t say that there’s definitely a Pujols effect.
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
but you also can't say there's definitely not. . .
a Pujols effect.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Can you debunk my logic argument?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
You are not. . .
making the same argument that I am making. The argument that I would make would go something like this:
1 Pitchers tend to try to avoid walking hitters who hit in front of ridiculous hitters.
2 Pitchers tend to throw more fastballs when behind in the count.
3 Selective hitters tend to get ahead in the count more than non-selective hitters.
4 Pre-injury Chris Duncan was a selective hitter.
5 Pre-injury Chris Duncan was a good fastball hitter.
6 Albert Pujols is a ridiculous hitter.
7 Ergo,Chris Duncan was able to take advantage of hitting in front of Albert Pujols by hitting better in that spot in the order than he would have in other spots in the order.
I don’t know that I would generalize this argument to all situations.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions
And you can just as easily say this the other way
1. Pitchers want to throw strikes to “protected hitters”
2. Pitchers don’t want to get behind a “protected hitter”
3. A selective hitter who wants to work the count will then be behind in the count more than non-selective hitter when “protected”
4. Ergo, Chris Duncan will be behind in the counts more than he otherwise would, and will hit worse than other spots in the order
Not afraid to nitpick
so you think
your logical argument iis worth more than thousands of PAs of data? Do you think OPS+s of 109, 119 and 120 are insignficant as well?
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
Hm. This whole thread got kind of derailed
If you believe your numbers, that’s fine. But give them context. What do they mean? Why do they make sense? Numbers don’t mean anything without a narrative, right?
Additionally, you are really bad at this selection bias thing. You weighted the data, which negates the people who did poorly, and even with your weights, you fail to mention tOPS+s of 86, 87, and 90.
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
I mentioned them in the orignial fanpost
you linked. That doesn’t change what the numbers say for the last four seasons.
You on the other hand have no numbers and believe the original fanpost meant something definitive when the statistics didn’t even measure anything relevant to the poster’s thesis.
I don’t understand how weighting the tOPs+ numbers by PAs “negates the people who did poorly.” Can you explain that?
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
Um -- I'm tired of hearing this BS from you about that Fanpost
Clearly you have selection bias issues that you are not willing to admit.
Therefore, you do not get to go around trashing someone else’s work based on your opinions of biased selection data that you yourself have created.
Secondly — Steve Sommer posted in the fanpost that:
- Hitters in front of Pujols don’t see more strikes than hitters elsewhere.
- Hitters in front of Pujols don’t see a negligible increase in fastballs compared to hitters elsewhere in the lineup.
Therefore, your entire conclusions are based on some theoretical “effect” that you’ve dreamed up, based on a logical fallacy that’s been disproven time and again by sabermetricians (like Tom Tango and Bill James), and you back up your own thesis by selecting only the data that agrees with it, while ignoring a preponderance of evidence and data that disagrees with it. Your entire argument is basically the definition of statistical selection bias.
You want to cherry pick your stats, go right ahead. I’d like you to come up with one reason WHY those hitters you’ve selected have hit better in that spot that actually has some basis in fact. They aren’t seeing better pitches and they aren’t seeing more fastballs. They aren’t even seeing more “fat” pitches. There could very well be other causes for this that have nothing to do with Pujols hitting behind these hitters. You can’t PROVE that these hitters you’ve selected hit better BECAUSE of Albert Pujols, and what’s crazy is that the data since 2003 doesn’t even correlate to those hitters in that spot being better than league average hitters over that time, so it’s not even a correlation vs. causation argument. It’s simply poor statistics/sabermetrics.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I went back and looked at the fanpost
and I don’t see where steve said anything about fat pitches other than he would look into it. If I missed it somewhere I am sorry. All I could find was that those hitting in front of Pujols say more strikes, but it was a negligible amount.
I think you are trying to put words in my mouth. You asserted that there was no Pujols effect based on numbers that I didn’t find at all convincing. You think tOPS+ on the team page has some bearing on whether or not there is a Pujols Effect and I have run all the numbers – all it does is compare the aggregate performance of that lineup spot to the rest of the team. It doesn’t measure anything about how those players do when not in that spot.
I have never stated that I have proven anything – I just think it is an interesting question. In fact, when I first started looking into this I was trying to prove there was no such effect. After looking at all the numbers I am no longer sure.
I don’t take issue with what Bill James and Tom Tango have said in general about lineup protection. I just don’t know that it is the absolute, completely unarguable truth that applies in every single imaginable scenario.
All I am trying to do is stimulate discussion and try to learn something. Unfortunately, I don’t really think much has been learned either way.
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
his ability to see a lot of fastballs thanks to batting in front of Albert Pujols
not convinced
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
No kidding
I don’t get this. All you have to do is put yourself in the position of a pitcher. Someone is up: you do whatever you think has the best chance of getting them out. Someone is up in front of Albert: you still do whatever you think has the best chance of getting them out.
People repeat this argument because it makes a certain kind of sense if you accept the line of reasoning (which is based on, from what I can tell, nothing). However, one could just as easily suggest that batting in front of Pujols makes pitchers more determined to get you out (to avoid baserunners for the Maching to drive in), so they’ll reach back for something extra against that guy, which would actually make hitting there more difficult, not easier. That makes a certain kind of sense, too, if you accept the line of reasoning.
In the end, I think pitchers are doing their best to get people out regardless of where they bat in the order. I’ve faced some pretty good hitters in my days as a pitcher, and I can’t possibly imagine approaching the hitter before them with any less tenacity than usual (or even a different approach) just because the big bat is on deck.
So you are saying
you would make the exact same 3-1 pitch to a given hitter irrespective of who is in the on deck circle?
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
no way. what if you're pitching to albert pujols and the pitcher is on deck?
not going to throw the exact same pitch as if you are pitching to boog and pujols is on deck. no way.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
Thus the 20-inning game
but unless it’s (a) currently pitching to a very good hitter; (b) on deck is a very bad hitter and © there are two outs or the next however many hitters are all bad, you have to pitch to the guy. Like intentional walks, there is only a very small subset of PAs where it actually makes sense to walk the guy (or to throw something borderline and hard to hit)
אנא טוני לא יותר ט.א.ס.ס
Because TLR
and SBN
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
I'm not quite sure what you mean.....
I’ve literally never pitched differently to a batter because of who was on deck, unless you mean an intentional walk to avoid a great hitter (and then, it didn’t matter who was on deck, the point was to avoid the great hitter).
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Well yeah, obviously it's slightly different if you're going to "pitch around" someone
If Albert is up and the pitcher is on deck, your goal (retire Albert Pujols) changes to something else (try to make Albert Pujols get himself out, but let him walk if he won’t).
But in terms of the batter in front of Pujols, that situation would never apply. If I’m not pitching around someone (or intentionally walking them), I’m going after them in the way that I think has the best chance of getting them out.
Yep, that's what I'm saying
However, what pitch I would throw on 3-1 would not necessarily be the same for any given hitter.
(Irrespective is a weird word. I don’t like it; prefer regardless. That is all.)
I mean. . .
how do we KNOW that Sandy Koufax would have ended up being a HOF pitcher. He only pitched for ten seasons, but what if he had put up 6+ ERAs for the next 10 years. We don’t know whether his ten years represented his true talent level, or whether it was just a small sample size.
j/k
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
the exciting thing about Jay is that he seems to have great plate discipline
that is not to be underrated.
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 20, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
unfortunately numbers don't really support this premise
he has a 7% BB rate…. he had 6% last year in AAA and 9% was his highest…
he also has a 16.7% K rate….
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry it seems like he has been having good plate discipline more lately after his callup
he was more free swinging at first, now he has toned it down a bit. just seems like he’s very patient at the plate to me. so far he has been a bright spot, and I for one think he’ll keep up the good work.
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 20, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
this is actually right though
his K rate was closer to 20% and he walked two times in one game recently
im one of the few not high on jay right now despite his excellent start
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I dunno
seems like it’s almost 50/50, a lot of people don’t believe in Jay which is understandable. with small sample sizes though you kind of have to go with your observations sometimes. Jay’s minor league numbers may not be flashy, but they are not bad either. sure he’s not going to be an all star more than likely, but I like a guy with speed and some pop.
chief justice
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 20, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I was z-ing through comments and had to make my way back up
because there was an avatar I’ve never seen before. curse you.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
So you rose for the Chief Justice?
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
by TBender on Jul 20, 2010 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
I'm not very high on Jay either
His hot start has endeared him to me, but in terms of long-term expectations, I am tempering harder than anyone has ever tempered. As much as Craig’s rough start does not reflect his talent level, Jay’s hot start does not reflect his talent level either.
Stav and options
Probably this has been covered but from what I can tell, Stav should have an option left. Per Cot’s Contracts, he was added to the 40 man roster on June 22 2008 and spent a week with the club (1st option used). He started 2009 with Memphis and was up and down in 2009 (2nd Option used).
Looks to me that he has a 3rd option and can hit Memphis for the month of August.
Bueller.... Bueller
Am I correct and we can stop this nonsense about having to DFA Stavinoha or can someone correct me about how the Cards used all three of Fat Miles’ options?
Yeah I thought that
in fact I thought he’d spent some of the year in Memphis already (although now I think of it he was here on opening day, wasn’t he?).
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
hard to believe, isn't it?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Stavinoha is out of options
It’s been mentioned a few times.
Whether he’d be claimed or not off waivers, is another story. (I’m looking at you, KC.)
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
i am also looking for proof
I thought he had an option remaining
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 20, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I looked all over
and as far as I can tell he was added to the 40 man in 2008. Since he has been on the 25 man all year he should still have an option left, at least if I am reading the rule correctly (at best a 50-50 proposition)
I heard he was so fat that it took two options to send him down last season.
"I got to get Dr. Freeze off my twig right now."-Nyjer Morgan
by flipthebird15 on Jul 20, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Your bench players so fat
He sat on a rainbow and skittles popped out
"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Jul 20, 2010 12:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Do we even want him at Memphis?
There are better options at Memphis than him right now!
You have Joe Mather down there, who’s living up to his nickname again, Amaury has been hitting well, and the other OF AB’s should be going to Adron Chambers, Tyler Henley, and Shane Robinson, who actually have value as 4th OF.
Just cut the Stavinfection before you have to amputate the entire limb. He has no value to us as an organization.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Yes
I think our AAA OF is like Shorey, Marti, Mather, and god knows who else. There was talk about sending up Aaron Luna, who’ll probably end up being a similar player to Stav (maybe a bit better) but I can’t recall if that happened.
I agree Adron needs to make it to AAA this year. He is OLD for a guy who’s not knocking on the door of the majors.
Amaury is like 47 years old anyway.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 5:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought he was omnipresent?
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he's a first baseman pretty much
they’ve trotted him out in LF occasionally but I think he’s as bad as Chris Duncan out there.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 22, 2010 5:22 AM EDT up reply actions
So we can't pour sugar on the infection
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
lol,
so none of those players are able to get ABs except for cgambers
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
lol yeah you're right, I forgot
so to amend my post above, our AAA OF is currently Mather, Shorey, and ?
We’re not exactly replete with depth players, are we?
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 5:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Was trying to clarify
all the discussions relating to the keep or DFA decision on Stav. Numerous commentators were saying that Stav was out of options and that would be the reason he was kept on the 25 man instead of Craig.
...
if stav somehow gets a spot, i will be pissed beyond belief, especially if it involves jay or craig going back down to memphis when they’ve both played their way on the roster. if we had our perfect world, stav and miles would both be DFA’d, but with TLR as our manager, there’s not a chance of that happening.
i’m not a big fan of winn playing RF. i especially hate it when TLR replaces jay in right, because jay is way better defensively, IMO. he has been playing better offensively, though. i’m thinking that TLR should DFA stav, if anybody goes.
Jay is the superior defender to Winn.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Didn't he just say that?
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
You concluded, with "IMO," and I wanted to assure you that, in my mind,
it’s a fact and not an opinion. Just backing you up, zoomzoom.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
i think everyone would agree with you about that
which is not to say winn is a bad defender – hell, jay is better defensively than most mlb outfielders.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
The only thing
that Winn has on Jay is old man strength. Do not try to wrestle Randy Winn, Jon.
Did anyone watch the ESPN post-game?
They interviewed Albert, and he called Jon “Yon”.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
[Yon Yay stumbles onto the stage of the History Channel first annual history awards and interrupts the man receiving his lifetime achievement trophy]
YonYay: Hey yo John Marshall, I’ma happy for you and I’ma let you finish, but Yonyay is the greatest Chief Justice of the United States of ALL TIME! ALL TIME!!!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Jul 20, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 11 recs
i like it as one word
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Drunk.
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps a LOOOONNG
rehab assignment for Stav? Giving Jay/Craig more time to “earn” their stripes.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
yeah, options or not
stav can be sent to memphis to “rehab”, right?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
20 day rehab assignments
are available for position players. At the end of 20 days, the club has to make a move to either activate, demote, DL or DFA the player. Per Cot’s
A club may send a player on the DL to the minor leagues for a rehab assignment lasting a maximum of 20 days for position players and 30 days for pitchers.
Rehab him for 20 days, DL him for 15 days, Rehab him for 20 days, DL him for 15 days, Rehab him for.....
Or do you think they might catch on to that?
I love how consistent this site is....
Craig and Jay have “played their way onto the roster” with their tiny sample size contributions but Stav, when his numbers were good, and Miles did not play their way onto the roster with their tiny sample size contributions.
It’s fine if you want to say that Craig and Jay are likely to be better players going forward (which is true), but that’s a different argument than the “playing yourself onto the roster” using a small sample size.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
We know of course that their SSS contributions don't mean they're great, and that's a flawed argument.
However, it should be fairly obvious even to the skeptic that Craig/Jay are almost certain to be better players going forward than Stav and Miles.
אנא טוני לא יותר ט.א.ס.ס
then use the good argument and drop the flawed one
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
How bout this
Craig is approaching Stav’s career OPS despite having a .167 BABIP…
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Jul 20, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
nice
I just think, collectively, we’re prone to bad arguments when they just happen to support players we like. And, conversely, we look for flaws in the stats we usually use to beat over the heads of players we don’t like when they don’t appear support players we do like (e.g. Colby’s UZR this year).
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
colby's 2010 UZR is in stark contrast to his 2009 UZR
it doesn’t take much to figure out something is going on there
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Poor throws and shallow depth, I imagine.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
plus good range from holliday and luddy
versus sharing an OF with chris duncan half of last season
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
i don't buy that at all
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Just from the creator of the stat...
Aside from that he probably has a better feel for that than anyone, how many balls really overlap? And even when they do, the CFer doesn’t get punished for Holliday “stealing” his balls anyway. He might not get credit for stuff, but +10 to -5 isn’t REMOTELY explained by the change in LFers.
Not afraid to nitpick
however you want to describe it
holliday is getting balls that colby was getting to in may of 2009, that’s at least part of the explanation that is probably just more random noise than anything. his performance is probably also not quite as good as last year
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
What, 1.....2 balls?
The CFer has the call anyway, if Rasmus can get to it, then he takes it. If there’s anything to that—-which I don’t really think there is—-it would be affecting the corner OFers to have a great/terrible CFer. Corner OFers don’t catch balls that the CFer can get to.
Not afraid to nitpick
yeah, that's generally how it works
but how often do you see colby out there calling off holliday and luddy?
it says somethign when VEB is impressed that colby took charge and called of boog on a ball hit to shallow center
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
How often do you see Holliday/Ludwick call off Rasmus??
The amount of balls in the zone that both of them could get to that aren’t sky high 100% caught balls anyway (and thus don’t contribute to saving runs by UZR) is just trivial.
Not afraid to nitpick
eh
(and thus don’t contribute to saving runs by UZR)
what? UZR doesn’t discriminate based on batted ball type. that’s part of the problem
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah it does
Stringers record how hard balls were hit. Kinda crude, but still.
Not afraid to nitpick
maybe you can point out
where it says that. that’s more than i want to read and from what i can gather, that’s a suggestion to improve UZR, not the current moethodology
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
relatively often, actually.
Colby started out better in the communication department earlier in the season, but the older guys have in fact been catching a lot of those balls in the overlapping zones. possibly because it needs to come back into the infield.
personally I have no problem with Colby’s catches. even though opposing managers are starting to comment about his shallow positioning. it’s his throws back in that are grating.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I must not be watching the same games
The number of times that an OFer is standing next to another OFer when a catch is made is just trivial.
Not afraid to nitpick
Next to? Sure
Backing up? A LOT of the time
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
trivial in what way?
that it doesn’t happen a lot and is not predictive, or that it happens when the team needs an out and/or needs the ball back in the infield? some of us liveblog this every game, so it’s not like it’s not documented.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to observe if an outfielder has the full skillset to be an outfielder.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
and it's been well more than 1-2 balls
that have been caught by luddy and holliday where colby was also there
maybe balls that were easier for them to catch, but the kind of balls that colby had no choice but to catch last year
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, i have no idea how it affects uzr
but this definitely does happen enough that it’s been commented on a lot during games this year.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Also the ludicrous inaccuracy of 1-year UZR?
I’m pretty sure there’s a consensus that 1-year UZR – especially with less than a full season – needs to be taken with a heaping portion of salt.
אנא טוני לא יותר ט.א.ס.ס
I know and agree.
I guess what I meant to say is that, if you look at the information and compare it to Dewan’s, it seems that Colby’s 2010 UZR is likely being affected by those two factors, perhaps disproportionately. Or, we could have a Carl Crawford 2007 type of situation on our hands.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
what was the carl crawford situation?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Negative UZR
His UZR has never been lower than 8.1 in his career, except in 2007 when it was -2.5.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
yeah, that's surprising
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Add Colby's 09 and 10 UZRs together and he's about average isn't he, perhaps just above?
I’d say that’s about right. To my eyes he looks like an average-to-marginally above average CF.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with that I think
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I can speak for zoomzoom:
“I am a big smelly poophead and I like to wear women’s underwear”.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
heh
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
This is a valid point
I think most people around here agree, but I know that I am definitely guilty of doing this from time to time. I was pleased with Stav’s early performance because I didn’t expect it. I am pleased with Jay and Craig’s performance because I do believe they are more talented and a better bet to succeed than Stav and Miles.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
You don't have to perform well at STL...
to play your way onto the roster. Their stellar performances at Memphis have a lot to do with it as well…as do Miles’s and Stav’s subpar performances prior to their SSS.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on Jul 20, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
they get a good look in spring training also
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
That's a valid point, too
Craig, Greene and Jay have all been mashing the ball in AAA. To that extent, they’ve earned their roster spots, and have hit well this month. Miles was sucking, badly, in AA when he was called up, and we don’t have much to go on from Stav this year as I think he’s been in mlb all season. I suppose that’s a good argument too.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
SSS?
I don’t know about this SSS, I once “played my way on to a roster” by just having the coach witness me drinking from a bottle. He could tell by the way I drank and the cut of my jib that I was going to post a huge OPS+. Granted it was kickball and it was the 3rd grade and I grew a foot taller faster than everyone else, but I think I’ve made my point.
I'm the Albert Belle of Golf...
the curse!!
Scotty goes on DL… Freese drops weight on big toe.
Coincidence?
[weep]
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I'll just watch this over and over again.
http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=10054739
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
That was awesome!
Especially the little sideways glance from Yadi on the way back to the dugout. He didn’t want to look, but he just had to do it.
by Buckeye Redbird on Jul 20, 2010 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
oh, he was going to look. because he's badass, and all it takes is one glance.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Key frame here:
Werth was taking his secondary lead with his hips/upper body open slightly toward second base. I’m not sure why you’d do that, especially against Molina. The amount that would slow down his return to first base is probably enough be the difference between safe and out at first base on that play.
Fundamentals, kids. Game of inches and whatnot.
by mojowo11 on Jul 20, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, the old stand-near-base-and-prepare-to-pounce sign
He gives it every play, but mean old Yadi only throws over occasionally. Poor Albert. :(
Here's the thing that nobody ever really points out:
Pujols is instrumental in Yadi getting all these pickoffs. Not only does he put the play on, he blocks nearly the entire base with his backside on the pickoff play, forcing the runner to dive around him to the back of the base….which happens to give Yadi a split second more time to get the throw there and he always pins it right on the back corner of the base to nail the runner. In a game of inches, these two pull this play off to perfection.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
yeah
Yadi’s arm is so accurate, though. He seems to be able to predict exactly where the slide is coming (into 1B or 2B) and get the ball to fade to that precise spot to get the runner tagged.
Does he have the best catcher arm ever? Probably not, but I think he’s the best in the current game by a long way.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 5:57 AM EDT up reply actions
what happened to rolen?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
hammy i think
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, he even had a cortisone shot in his hamstring.
That had to hurt. Bad.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
yeah, that sounds painful
even scotty had to wince on that one.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Rolen's blood is probably solid cortisone at this point anyway.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 20, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
our top three starters merit an Eminem montage.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
further D. Brown nonsense
As for Allen Craig-Allen, I think he’s becoming to the Cardinals as George Glass was to Jan Brady. He’s one of the nicest boys, but is he real?
Meanwhile the real Allen Craig has to IOU a bat just to get his first home run ball.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
That was bad-ass.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jul 20, 2010 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions
points off for putting that silly washed-out glow around the clips.
FESPN has really fallen off in the montage department.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
..
FESPN has really fallen off in the montage department..
/fixed
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jul 20, 2010 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
you're implying they were up?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
it was a long, long time ago
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I don't remember the last time I watched espn
For baseball highlights or football highlights. MLB and NFL network completely own them in every way.
by lopey986 on Jul 20, 2010 12:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
i recall liking espn in the days of aussie rules football
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
uh huh
i quit watching espn when I heard Berman was gonna start doing aussie rules football
I am pleasantly pleased, thankyouverymuch
Da Da Da, Da Da Da
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
Keith! I thought we agreed not to look at the camera!
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
you have to think long term here and we don’t have any more outfielders in the minors so I would send Criag back when Luddy comes off UNLESS TLR finally decides to play Craig at 3B until MR Freeze comes back.
If the Cards need a rental pitcher they will have to give up Luddy or Craig to get one. My thoughts are that Luddy is best to go for salary planning. Craig can come close to replacing him and we would have him for several more years at cheap rates.
Having said that, I don’t think they trade for another pitcher if they think Lohse is returning. My bigger concern is that Garcia starts to drop off which is why I think they need a rental to get us through the year — either that or pray for Reds injuries.
Just win
I'd like Craig at 3B for $1000, Alex.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Craig 3B appearances...
2008 – 108 games at AA
2009 – 13 games at AAA (Tied for 4th in appearances behind Wallace-52, Freese-45, Rowlett-15)
2010 – ZERO games at AAA and ML
It ain’t happening. The organization doesn’t think he’s a 3rd Baseman.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
This is the team and manager that moved Skip
to 2B after he hadn’t played infield in 5 years. “Ain’t” is much too strong a word.
maybe it's just me, but at 3B, Lopez is spelled 'exposed'
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
The Ghost of Abraham Nunez may have possessed him.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
aaaahhh
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
it's not just you
i have to believe craig can defend third as well as lopex. now if he could defend second as well…
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
yeah, he's not great there
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
can someone check their heights?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
He was very good there last year
If he played there all the time for us, he’d probably look a little better.
FWIW, he’s better at 3B than at any other position if you believe his career UZR.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
He looks fine over there to me
Nothing amazing, but seems to be handling himself fine. Definitely looks more fluid at 2B.
Skip had an offseason and ST to prep for the position.
Has Craig been practicing at third? Did he work at third in ST?
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
I believe he did take grounders there during Spring Training,
but I’ll defer to Yadi2Second.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Miles 3B appearances....
2003-2005 - 0 games
2006 - 2.1 innings
2007 - 19 innings
2008 - 61 innings
2009 - 12 innings
Aaron Miles, with a 40 arm and a shitty first step is definitely not more of a 3B than……..a guy who played 3B at some point in his career.
Not afraid to nitpick
Is there any 3B better than Greene/Craig/Lopex
that we can get in a trade?
I have no confidence Freese will be back before mid-August. This spot is starting to concern me more than a SP.
"They're so stunned they didn't even boo!"
John Rooney 5/3/10 referring to Philly fans on Cards 5-run 7th inning
Anything we could get
better than Lopez, probably isn’t worth what we’d have to give up, in my mind.
He’s dirt cheap and reasonably effective.
Having twitter conversations with MLeech
He makes it sound like Craig has zero chance of playing 3B
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 20, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he is probably correct,
but a man can dream, can’t he?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Certainly would help out greatly
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
no
better men have ended up in room 101 for less
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Room 101
Oh dear me. Good reference, my good sir.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 20, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
It's probably true.
Zero innings at third this season shows the belief the Cards have in him there, long term. It’s not like we have an otherworldly prospect at Memphis blocking him from getting innings there.
He probably does have zero chance at actually playing 3B
Just the comical hypocrisy that “Miles can fill in a 3B in a pinch!” and Craig can’t is…..annoying.
Not afraid to nitpick
This is exactly my point.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
FWIW, in at least 2 interviews
with Mo, he makes it sound like Craig needs a cut-off man to get the ball across the infield.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
then how can he play OF???
have to throw the ball a lot further from RF, don’t you?
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
i think this is why they don't consider him a long-term option for RF
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
look, i love me some allen craig, but if his only viable options are in LF or 1B, then he needs to go the way of Brett Wallace.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
I think the FO shares this view.
And that is why there has been an emphasis on “regular ABs in Memphis.”
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
unless....we need to keep craig around on the off chance we don't sign...
no, i can’t bring myself to say it.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
That's the primary reason I wanted to keep Wallace.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
yeah, if we don't
we’re kinda shit up a paddle without a creek
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
yeah,
I don’t want to lose Luddy either
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
can't tell if this is serious. i wasn't talking about ludwick...
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
it's serious
in that I refuse to believe you aren’t talking about ludwick
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
by STLRegalia on Jul 20, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i approve of this approval
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
It is comical that Miles could or would play there...
But Craig doesn’t need to play third either. Lopez can play there until Freeze gets back (or for the rest of the year). Indeed, this is what we got Lopez for.
Greene and Ryan would probably be better at 3b than Craig as well.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
My thought was that having Craig as an option at third
and having Lopez as an option at second would allow us to field a better offensive lineup while roughly equaling a Lopez at third and Skip at second defensive lineup.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Thats probably true.
MAKE IT SO, TLR!
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I've been thinking this since Craig got called up
Chances of it happening?… I won’t even bother guessing. I would guess zero but Tony has surprised us before.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
No.
Miles was on the Cards in 2008 and had a career year. He didn’t join the Cubs until 2009, where they sold him as the new super-utility DeRosa type.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Good post Dan.
Hawk’s been getting really lucky. He hasn’t been just terrible as far as results, but he just doesn’t look like anything to get happy about. One please, just one. We don’t need two pitchers that project the way that Hawk and Soup do. I can live with one though.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jul 20, 2010 8:04 AM EDT reply actions
I think I'm in the minority
but I quite like Hawk. I think he’s fine as a 5th starter. I don’t think the peripherals have, to my eyes, been entirely fair on the way he’s pitched so far, I think he looks like he could do a job (mind you, I posted something similar about him in the bullpen about a week before he started getting shelled every night and gave up a walkoff dinger to Carlos Ruiz in my one live Cards game this year). I’m really not sure how long Suppan can go on before he starts getting really battered, though. He’s the best we’ve got at present but I’m really hopeful Lohse is back soon.
I think Sheets or Myers would be ideal mid-season acquisitions, but I also think if Lohse is really likely to pitch within a month or so we can afford to stand pat.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Myers's numbers are a bit misleading,
and that will cause the Astros to ask for too much for Myers (because I’m certain that Ed Wade only looks at ERA). Sheets seems like a very good fit, but so does Jake Westbrook (who I’ve read may clear waivers, so may be an August option).
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
That's probably true
even though his ERA is lucky this year, he’s a good pitcher, though, probably as good as either of the guys we’ve got injured right now. If Westbrook clears waivers I’d definitely be in for him, but I think he’s an inferior choice to Myers or Sheets.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd rather not have Myers just because I'd find it difficult to cheer for him.
אנא טוני לא יותר ט.א.ס.ס
Yes, me too.
He is an asshole of the highest order.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Aren't we full up on white RHP with stupid beards?
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
This is why we need Tony Gwynn Jr.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
I don't
I think Westbrook’s a much better choice, due to the fact that he’s a guy who gets a lot of ground balls when he’s pitching well. For his career, ground balls account for 58% of his balls in play — that’s nearly Joel Piniero 2009 territory. He has multiple seasons with more than 60% ground balls. I think if you start him and put Greene, Boog, and Floppy on the infield, he could be a very effective starter for us.
He and Dave Duncan are a match made in heaven, and he would cost a lot less than the other two guys anyway.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Im undecided on Hawksworth.
He was excellent out of the bullpen last year and I am a firm believer in the ‘if it ain’t broke, dont fix it’ philosophy. But at the same time, since our starting rotation is ‘broke’, hes done a damn decent job as a replacement. Could be in contension for the 5th starters spot next year if he can prove consistency and can hit location (and not walk the pitcher twice in two appearances).
'Don't kiss an ass if its in the process of shitting on you.' - Best advice ever.
Hawksworth, in relief, this season
looked pretty broken.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
True, but then hes been a better option than Ottavino and Suppan...
and maybe even Dennys Reyes for an extended amount of time.
'Don't kiss an ass if its in the process of shitting on you.' - Best advice ever.
Damning with faint praise, indeed.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Last night, Hawk got unlucky in the first inning.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
Yeah I thought so
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
counting
Albert Pujols’ 100th career double in Busch Stadium.
Just this Busch Stadium.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
so i take it he holds the record
anyone know who hit the most doubles at old busch, or where to find such things?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
So I had insomnia and just finished watching Paprika
http://www.veoh.com/browse/videos/category/autos_and_vehicles/watch/v18586582KNKKFzcA
I’ve been told it’s the origional “Inception”, either way it was really awesome and weird.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 20, 2010 8:46 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
love that movie.
…but i like Satoshi Kon’s stuff
Joe Morgan: "I've always said that the purpose of a minor league system is to help the big league club."
You ain't the only one with insomnia...
I havent been to bed yet….I just got done watching Repo Men, myself. And I want to see Inception, I’ll look into Paprika.
'Why are you 40 with highlights?' - Scott Rolen during interview with Kevin Millar
Another one worth checking out is
“Last Year at Marienbad.” It’s French and sub-titled, but quite good.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Fangraphs
has a “”http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-the-st-louis-cardinals-should-do/" target="new">What Should the St. Louis Cardinals Do?" piece today. I think this might be the first time they’ve mentioned the Cards in months but the piece doesn’t really say anything interesting that we don’t already know. Read if you want.
babip giveth... and babip taketh away
sbn'd
babip giveth... and babip taketh away
by purple_haze on Jul 20, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I had no idea that Fausto Carmona was even available...
I’d definitely pick him up if we had the chance. He has 15 QS’s (Wainwright has 17) this season and a 3.65 ERA, also has only given up 7 HRs this year.
Downside: His K/9 is pretty low at 4.67, and he has 49 walks in 123 innings, which isnt real good or bad, but can up your WHIP (which is already at 1.31).
I dont know, sounds right up Dunc’s alley.
'Don't kiss an ass if its in the process of shitting on you.' - Best advice ever.
I think he'd be great here...
he’s back to pitching well and I wonder what throwing him into a pennant race in front of the “Best Fans…” would do for him.
Agreed
Fausto Carmona would be the perfect middle/backend SP for the stretch run. Perfect DD pitcher.
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
What would it take to get him, if he's available?
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
he's the guy i've been wanting
we’d have him for a few years and he’s still young and could learn from dunc, i think. didn’t he represent the indians in the all-star game? he’d be expensive, but i think we have the pieces to be a pretty good fit in acquiring him.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Goold and B Rains responded back to me Re: Carmona
@dgoold @mstreeter06 Carmona has $28-million in options on his contract. They are team options, so it’s not a guarantee. He’s at $7m in ’11.
@dgoold @mstreeter06 In other words, that’s not a crazy price, and there’s no reason why Cleveland — with that control — will deal for peanuts.
@BJRains @mstreeter06 Right team, wrong guy. I think Jake Westbrook would be more in play for the Cardinals at this point.
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
His answer to acquiring Westbrook. Not sure I agree...
@BJRains @mstreeter06 no idea, but one of Motte, McClellan and Boggs would likely have to be included in my opinion.
Pass on giving up a ML bullpen arm for Westbrook. I’m sure we can minor league trade chips to grab Westbrook or Carmona.
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
would you deal craig AND jay for carmona?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
No.
Unless we lock up Ludwick for 2 years with a team option for 3rd year.
Luddy just turned 32
He is making $5.45mm this year (2nd yr arbitration). What do you think it would cost to buy out his last year of arb and 1st free agent year? $7 MM/ season?
And would you want to knowing his injury history and age when the option is Craig/Jay at league minimum?
2 years
is the absolute max i would want to lock him up. and i don’t think he’s cheap enough if we’re only guaranteeing 2 years
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
The problem I have with Craig/Jay in right field going forwards
Is that I don’t like Craig’s right field defense (compared to Ludwick or Jay), and I don’t think Jay’s bat projects to being a starter.
I love Jon Jay as the 4th outfielder. He can play all 3 outfield positions well, but I am not sure he’s what we need as a starter. Craig seems like a Left Field guy to me, as I don’t think he has the arm to man right. Unfortunately, Holliday doesn’t either.
It’s a bit of a quandary.
Craig doesn't have the arm for right?
He was always rated as a very adequate arm at 3b, and one would figure that an adequate 3b arm would make for an adequate rf arm too.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Really?
I thought he was always described as having a mediocre arm?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
somebody should compile all the scouting reports on Craig
for a fanpost. they are all over the place on his arm, range, etc.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Pretty sure arm is the primary reason he isn't playing third anymore.
His footwork wasn’t great, but his arm just didn’t play going forwards.
And yet he gets put out in RF with the same arm.
I would think that arm strength needs at 3B and RF might be comparable.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
Which is why I'm not sure if I'm comfortable with Craig as our RF option
the nest 2-3 years. He just seems to project better in Left, or at First.
we need a RF right now
you can’t exactly put him in LF or 1B
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn't he already make a start in RF since being called up?
I thought he started there the first game post-all star break.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
You are correct.
Positions noted on the far right
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
If I could sign Luddy for a 2-year, $14MM contract,
I would probably do it, knowing that, with his injury history, I have Craig/Jay at the league minimum as an insurance policy.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yeah
Unless the Cards can trade Ludwick for a good cost-controlled SP or MIF w/ power, I would think a 2-3 year extension at $7-8 mil per year would be a fair deal for both sides.
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Cards fans
understate Ludwick’s value. In ‘08, Ludwick was worth 5.4 wins. Even last year, a down year, he was worth 2. He’s been worth 2.4 wins so far this season. It’s not too big a stretch to think he’s going to be worth 3, 2.5, and 2 wins over the next 3 seasons. That puts his value at around $30 million over 3 seasons, at least. Ludwick will be doing himself a disservice to sign a 2 year contract or one that doesn’t approach an AAV of $10 million per season.
Hmm
Doesn’t Ludwick heading toward the mid 30’s and being injury prone affect his value? Always love chuckb input!
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Undoubtedly
but we’re still talking about a guy who will have been worth more than 10, and maybe more than 11 wins over 3 years, depending on how he finishes this season. His age will keep him from getting a 4 year deal and probably keep him below $12 million or so but he’s worth more than $7 or 8. Like I said, in a bad year he was worth $8.
How about offering
2 years for $22 mil with a 3 year option at $7-8 mil. Basically front load the extension.
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
albert pujols
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
is good.
Yeah I know. AP is priority #1 before anything else.
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't see why he'd take it
the 3rd year option does nothing for him. A 3rd year guarantee at $8 million, maybe, but as bgh says below, I don’t think our payroll can afford Ludwick beyond next year. Colby will be eligible for arbitration that year and we’ll be paying Holliday and (presumably) Pujols. We’ll have to find a replacement for Carpenter and Wainwright’s salary will jump if we’re able to extend him as well. We’re going to have to find an internal or much cheaper replacement.
Agreed.
So do you think the Cards should try to trade Ludwick for a cost-controlled SP or MIF then?
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
and if so, now or in the off-season?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'd trade him
this offseason for a starting pitcher if possible. Of course, I’m still behind the notion that Brendan Ryan can, once again, be a league average SS. Cost-controlled starters are hard to find, but I think cost-controlled league average shortstops are even harder to find and I don’t think we could trade Ludwick for one. Maybe Ludwick + …
Totally agree.
Who would be an example besides Nolcasco?
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Nolasco would be good
but Florida’s not going to trade for an aging corner OF who’ll make $8-10 million in arbitration. Not sure at this point. Maybe a pitcher from SD or SF.
Yeah
CodeeG and co put together a 3 way trade of STL – Nolasco, SD – Ludwick, FLA – combo of spects from STL/SD
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
(A currently healthy) Ludwick probably gets you any one of Yunel Escobar, Stephen Drew, Alex Gonzalez. All of them have their uses, and are either above-average SSs this year, OR a good bet to be that going forward.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
except that
none of the teams holding those players are contenders (save the braves who just acquired gonzalez) and are not going to want luddy who is going to have a big raise in arbitration and then leave via free agency
who would want gonzalez anyway?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I was speaking of pre-trade. . .
Gonzalez/Escobar.
Either of those teams would have jumped at the chance to acquire Ludwick.
And as to who would want Gonzalez, wasn’t there a fanpost about his desirability to Cardinal nation? I woudn’t trade for him, but he’s a league average SS, at least by one definition.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't see any reason why the D-Backs
would want Ludwick. They have a good RF, and good options in LF, and they aren’t going anywhere this year. If we call asking about Drew, they start with Shelby Miller I’d imagine.
Drew has a lot of value in this market as there are quite a few contenders who need a lift at SS.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
they might start with miller
but drew wouldn’t cost miller.
luddy certainly wouldn’t get it done, though
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
We don't have anything else of value really
Unless they’re taking 5 C+/B- prospects in return.
Because that’s about all we have right now outside of Miller.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
i think, like greene and sanchez would get it done
not that i would want to do that or that i think we really should be trading for drew
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I highly doubt that's enough
They have 3 relievers in AA that are similar to Sanchez, although Sanchez is probably a bit better, and I highly doubt they’re interested in Greene one bit. He’s iffy defensively as a SS, and can’t hit enough to really play anywhere else. He’s a very good bench player, but you don’t trade your starting SS for a bench player and a minor league reliever. They can do much better than that.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I don't think Ludwick lands Drew
if they’re trading Drew, it’s for salary relief and future prospects. I doubt they’d want a guy with one year remaining who’ll make close to $10m next year.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 6:00 AM EDT up reply actions
i really worry about what this team is going to look like in 2013.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
That's why chuck factored in reduced win production.
Year 1: 3 wins
Year 2: 2.5 wins
Year 3: 2 wins
I still don’t trust his health enough for a three-year deal, and I’d never sign him for $30MM over three years. Not that we can afford it with other players’ forthcoming raises and the potential for a Pujols extension.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yikes
I can’t see any team signing him to that kind of a contract given his injury history. Too many question marks about his ability to stay on the field.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
After this season
he’ll have had 3 consecutive seasons w/ 500+ PAs. Next season will likely be 4. If so, I think someone will give him that contract, provided he’s still worth around 3 wins next year. The possibility means we should trade him this offseason, in my view.
I don't think
we can afford to subtract any of those guys from the bullpen.
Totally. Don't mess with the core pen arms.
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I disagree.
Salas is as good as any one of those three right now. In fact, I would love, love, love to get rid of Kyle McClellan this year, when he is at his smoke-and-mirrors peak of effectiveness, in a package for an end-of-the-rotation starter, as it would allow us to upgrade in both the rotation and the bullpen.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yeah I suppose
I just value McClellan I guess. I would think we could trade someone else rather than messing with the ML bullpen.
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Isn't that what Sanchez and Salas are for? What's the marginal difference between those guys and Salas/Sanchez?
You gotta give to get. Spare parts we don’t want don’t bring back assets.
(I wouldn’t do this trade either, btw, but I don’t like Westbrook)
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
...
RT @Ken_Rosenthal A complication for teams interested in #Indians RHP Jake Westbrook: His contract includes bonuses if he is traded: A $2M lump sum . . . #MLB
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
pass
I’d use that money to help sign Cox/Wilson.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
That bodes well for us, actually
I believe the team has specifically said that it has money, if not lots of prospects, to throw around at the deadline. If other teams balk at the bonus, we may be able to get him for a lesser package.
I would deal McClellan/Boggs and a minor leaguer for Westbrook
Easily. We have internal options that can replace McClellan (Sanchez/Salas), and I’m just not sure that Boggs is ever going to get his control issues figured out.
BTW, I think BJ Rains is throwing shit at the wall here, as the Indians haven’t really said publicly what they’d want in return.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I'd prefer not to include Boggs
He’s got his BB% down to 3.46, can get strikeouts sometimes, and gets ground balls. I like him in our pen long-term.
I think Carmona's pretty crappy
and the Indians (and the league in general) probably over-value him a little because he’s (to some extent at least) a “name”. I dunno how much better than Hawksworth he is, to be honest (probably a little, but not as much as we might think). Given his contract, I’d not want him. Too expensive next year.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Carmona is another extreme ground ball guy
So he makes a decent option, I’d just rather have Westbrook, who is a little older and a FA after this year. We might be able to bring him back in 2011 for less than what we’re paying Penny this season, and I think it’s possible that he has a chance to be that good under Duncan with our defense playing behind him.
FWIW, if Fausto could get the walks under control, I think he’d be a really good option — I just don’t think that’s going to happen. He’s extremely good and getting guys to beat the ball into the ground.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Yeah, that's my impression
he’s just not QUITE good enough control-wise to live with such a high contact rate. If he was a strikeout guy I could live with it, but he’s basically reliant on the GB and whilst he’s walking 3 guys per start he’s going to give up runs when they occasionally get through the infield.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 6:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I would think the best targets in regards to Starting Pitching
Is players with a high salary the rest of the year but on the last year of their contract. ie Ben Sheets
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 20, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
ben sheets will make at least $10MM this year
and his FIP is 4.75
no
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, he will,
but a pro-rated share of that is, what, like $3MM? That seems to be exactly what DeWitt is after.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
SIGN BEN SHEETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
no...
4.75 FIP & 4.48 xFIP. Just say no to Ben Sheets.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
4.75 FIP
there are just such better options for cheaper
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I want to make sure that we are talking about "cheaper" in the same context.
To me, Sheets ought not cost that much in prospects because of his FIP and xFIP (assuming Beane hasn’t been listening to too many soccer podcasts to know what FIP and xFIP are). Now, that may be dubious, because Beane typically asks for a lot in return for even a mere rental, and I would accept that as an additional negative. That being said, DeWitt has stated that the club would rather take on salary than give up talented prospects. A player like Sheets seems to fit that description. I think Sheets would be “cheaper” to acquire in terms of prospect costs than most any other option, even if his salary is not “cheaper.”
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
but he's about as good as hawk right now
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
but he doesn't have DD magic pixie dust yet
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
You're right.
His 2010 numbers are as good as Hawk’s right now. I do subscribe a bit to the Duncan magic pixie dust, which is silly and irrational, I know. I think Sheets is the type of pitcher that Duncan can improve. Plus, I’d rather have him in the rotation than Suppan. Sadly, he would likely join Suppan and replace Hawk in the rotation.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
don't forget
that Carp would let him know that he’s tipping pitches, and then correct it.
he’ll pitch like CC did for the Brewers and then the Brewers will resign him for 5 yr 90M
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
I gotta think...
that Sheets is at best a type B free agent even with a strong finish to the season. The A’s are better trading him for anything, than letting him walk.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on Jul 20, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
how can he be a type B when he was out last year?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I don't think there's anyway...
zwhy I said “at best”.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
you're only penalized
for time missed after a certain, fairly lengthy period of time. i wouldn’t be surprised if he made type B
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Okay...
you made me do it. Looking at Eddie Bajek’s list Sheets is currently no where close to a type B player. He is at 24.532, and type B’s start at 60.487. It’s hard to say where he would fall with the switch to the NL, but I don’t think it would help him based on the groups of pitchers right on the cusp for both leagues.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
yeah,
he probably doesn’t have a chance then
i don’t think he even pitched the full 2008 season. so i guess he’s probably well over that threshold
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
he's not going to be anything
so why they’re not aggressively touting him for a trade is anyone’s guess.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
yep...
they should be thrilled to let another team pay his remaining salary at this point.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
From what I read on MLBTR...
the other day all of the incentives that he will reach will be the responsibility of the team he is playing for when they are reached. He gets $500K for 165, 175, 185, and 195 IP’s (or is it I’sP’d?). Probably makes his remaining salary closer to $5M than $3M.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on Jul 20, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Those articles are totally stupid
and somewhat symptomatic of how FG has gone down hill this year.
They’re called “What TEAM X should do” yet, despite the fact they’ve been running as a lengthy series with that title, NONE OF THEM ACTUALLY MAKE ANY SUGGESTIONS AS TO WHAT THE TEAM IN QUESTION SHOULD ACTUALLY DO. I find it really grinds my gears, to be honest.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
obligatory
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Can't see it as I'm behind a firewall
but I’m laying 10-1 odds on a Peter Griffin jpeg…
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice!
Really talking up the impact of the Memphis Mafia (Jay, Greene, Craig). I’ve always said this is important…you’ve gotta hype your own prospects.
Also, chances Cards make a trade according to Goold: Looking for a starting pitcher but reluctant to move someone off the big club.
Other than that, there wasn’t much “news.”
Probably already been discussed
Ludwick (calf strain) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Memphis on Tuesday
but I’m glad he is doing a rehab assignment instead of rushing back like last year.
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
wonder what he'll buy the boys in memphis
somebody who just returned from rehab assignment in the low minors – and i can’t remember who – bought the team a fancy new bus because he wanted to travel in a bit more comfort.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Was it Manny being Manny?
I know he rehabbed in Class A.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
that could've been it
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
far more impressed with the guy who bought t-shirts for the Springfield squad when they made the playoffs.
I think he was one of the league minimum guys.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I hadn't heard about this
Who bought the shirts?
"I told myself from the very beginning: 'If he's going to throw a shutout, then he's going to tie,'" Wainwright said. "He was not going to beat me today."
I wanna say Barden, but I'm tabs-blocked.
I bet I fanshot’d it.
yeah, I think it was Barden. Stavinoha was the one Cazana credited as helping him.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that Joe LeagueMinimum (~$400,000)
Can probably afford ~30 t-shirts pretty much without a second thought.
Yes
I’m happy to see the use of rehab assignments. Too many times over the last couple of years have players come back with no rehab assignment just to struggle.
ot: question..... how do you spell Dwayne Wade?
That’s it, right?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
NOPE.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
Dwyane?
Thought it was spelled off.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
that has been driving me crazy for days.
thanks
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
heh
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
I have tabs open.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
aaaaaaa
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
aaaaaaaaaa
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
or
geoff blum
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
by punchinjudy on Jul 20, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
isn't that short for Geoffrey?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
there's a lot of geoff's
geoff petrie comes to mind. somebody here mentioned they had a brother with that spelling, i recall
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
What's Geoff Blum got to do with anything?
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
it doesn't look too bad
i think you’re a bit spoiled
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Eh, it's pretty bad.
Even compared to an ‘okay’ curveball, not just Wainright’s class.
i dunno man
i was, y’know, watching his curveballs and looked okay. not good, but okay
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
not a ton of movement
but when he was just plooping them in there at the bottom of the zone, they were effective
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
and yes
i dare you find a better descriptor for it than “plooping”
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I was going to compliment you on it.
It is perfect for a terrible breaking ball.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Sounds like
something you do in the bathroom after a night of too much to drink and a stop by the cheap mexican place on the way home during college.
I'm the Albert Belle of Golf...
If he locates it perfectly, it's a somewhat reasonable
show me pitch. His changeup is a legitimate out pitch, but I’d really like to see him improve his breaking stuff if he’s to be our 5th dude going forwards. Which I wouldn’t be entirely against.
I’m not sure I really want to make ‘any’ trades, just take what we have coming back off the DL, and fill from within, from there.
Watching!!!
When you say watching, you mean looking at a spreadsheet right???
אנא טוני לא יותר ט.א.ס.ס
This is a baseball blog.
It goes without saying that none of us actually watched the game last night. We studied spreadsheets and divined all of our knowledge of the performances from mere statistics. DanUp used his imagination to figure out what Pujols and Craig’s swings would have looked like given the trajectory of the dingers, speed of the pitch, and type of pitch.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 20, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
at least you admit it
that’s the first step
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
I actually watched the game last night.
My parents’ basement was being repaired due to flooding.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
You poor soul.
I don’t know how you managed.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I watched the highlights
But I didn’t have Randy Winn or Skip Schumaker down for a homer on my spreadsheets, so I figured the highlights were probably misrepresenting what actually happened.
The Regalia lineup predictor says:
Lopez – 3B
Craig – RF
Pujols – 1B
Holliday – LF
Winn – CF
Molina – C
Greene – SS
Carpenter – P
Miles – 2B
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Moyer tonight?
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
Yeah.
Moyer vs. Carpenter.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Oh geez
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Greene
I wonder if he can go tonight with the hand injury.
man, i'm behind - what happened to his hand?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
He got beaned.
left hand I think. 3rd game in the Dodgers series IIRC.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
ah, well at least nothing was broken
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'd like seeing Craig in the 2 hole
but I don’t like Winn in the 5 hole. Maybe switch Greene and Winn if Greene is healthy for tonight’s game? Either way, I like the look of that line-up in a no Luddy/Freese world. Miles in the 9 hole is a good fit, as there is less pressure for RBI’s in that spot, and because Miles’ ability to place weak bloop singles between the outfield/infield makes him a good candidate for Tony’s genius “bat the pitcher eighth” line-up scheme.
RFL for GG!
by stxcardsfan on Jul 20, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Rasmus for Winn.
Problem solved.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
This.
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
prediction, not suggestion
I would never suggest Miles in the lineup
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
can TLR resist this?
Cardinals outfielder Randy Winn, who delivered a pinch-hit homer Monday, could be in the starting lineup Tuesday thanks to his .400 (10 for 25) career average against the Phillies starter.
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
He was put in the lineup against the dodgers due to an extreme split against a specific starter.
He’ll be in there tonight with Colby sitting, I’m sure.
How could anyone resist this?
It is SO predictive of how he will perform in tonight’s game against Moyer.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
doesn't mean it's not predictive....
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
like i said, doesn't mean it's not predictive, just that we can't show that it is or isn't yet
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
This is nonsense.
Randy Winn is not a true talent .400 hitter against a major league pitcher. It’s not predictive.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
Ugh DFA Winn, Miles, and Stavinoha. Makes roster management easier.
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Brad Thompson was once a major league pitcher
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Don't even bother answering that.
Studies have been done on batter v. pitcher cases and the batter regresses towards their career line the more they face that pitcher. Winn vs. Moyer simply is not predictive of anything.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
I didn't say it was predictive, I said just because it's a small sample size...
doesn’t rule out that Winn hits Moyer better than his baseline talent level would otherwise be.
You reference these studies about batter/pitcher matchups, do they say that a batters never hit certain ptichers better than the batter’s baseline talent level?
That the batter regresses towards his career line doesn’t really say much unless, in the end, the batter never deviates from his career line no matter who the picher is. No batter is likely to sustain .400 against any ML pitcher, almost no matter how good the batter and how bad the pitcher.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
If I wanted to debate non-falsifiable positions
I’d find a 3-year old. Your premise amounts to “We just can’t know.” Good day.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
You sure do get your panties in a bunch....
SSS doesn’t mean there’s no correlation, only that one can’t be reliably shown.
Point me to the studies that say that batters always regress all the way to their baseline talent level, no matter the individual pitcher, if given enough PAs.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Things prophetjohn currently is not doing?
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
WHOA subject-verb disagreement
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Nevermind
Me fail english? That’s unpossible!
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
i was just pointing out unconscious idiomatic sexism, don't bring reality into this.
אנא טוני לא יותר ט.א.ס.ס
you now realize the unconscious link between "panties"
to “women” to “overreaction” was now yours, right?
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Dammit!
in all seriousness though, it’s not that i think you’re a sexist – you were just using a common phrase. it’s worthwhile to point out that the phrase is pretty much inherently sexist though.
אנא טוני לא יותר ט.א.ס.ס
in all seriousness though....
you sound like a little girl.
(just kidding! sounding like a little girl is a compliment!)
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Chapter 3 of THE BOOK
This isn’t a small sample size argument. The point is that individual pitcher matchups have miniscule value (and when this discussion began we’re talking about 25 ABs so virtually 0) in predicting future performance. The player’s overall performance is far more predictive of what he’ll do against an individual pitcher than his previous at bats against that pitcher.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
i'm sure it's implied
but it probably needs to be pointed out that you’re still adjusting for the quality of pitcher. a player isn’t expected to perform the same against howie kendrick as they would tim lincecum, but at the same time, not disproportionately better. if they are, it’s probably just random variation
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
You would accept, though, that certain characteristics of pitcher matchups matter, no?
I.e., that it is possible for an individual batter to have a different baseline depending on whether he’s facing a LHP or a RHP. Is that the last possible differentiation we can make?
Seems like we could also make different baselines, e.g., for an individual batter against different types of LHPs. Some LHPs are particularly good at getting LHBs out (perhaps they rely primarily on a good slider), some have no splits, and some are good at getting out RHBs (perhaps a great changeup).
Let’s take Moyer. Is there a certain type of hitter that does better against him? Perhaps a RHB that takes a lot of pitches and has good strike zone control (I’m actually thinking of the Hatteburg example in Moneyball). You seem to be saying that it’s not possible to continue to categorize pitcher type and hitter type at more granular levels until you start to approximate individual pitching matchups that would allow for the hitter to hit at a better baseline than his true talent level.
In any event, this wasn’t my original point. My original post was simply rebutting the oft-repeated logical and statistical fallacy that a SSS means there is no correlation. There very well might be. And I never said that some SS of PAs would be more predictive than a player’s overall performance. I didn’t even make a comparison between the two.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
The point is
Looking at 10-20-30-40 ABs of performance means nothing. There’s no evidence that it means nothing…..and logical people in the absence of evidence typically don’t base their decisions off of nothing.
There are matchup types that you can use yes (Slider pitcher, curveball pitcher etc), that makes sense, but the SSS will always be so small vs. one pitcher that it’s irrelevant to your decision making.
Not afraid to nitpick
Take a simple example:
Player A’s baseline peformance level is .320 wOBA
In 30 PA’s against Pitcher B, he has a .500 wOBA
In 30 PA’s against Pitcher C, he has a .180 wOBA
Against all other pitchers individually, in 4000 PAs, he has a .320 wOBA
There’s no evidence that you should expect Player A to hit better than his baseline of .320 against Pitcher B, and no evidence that he’s likely to hit worse than his baseline against Pitcher C?
What if Player A told you that he just couldn’t pick out the ball out of Pitcher C’s hand and that he was just up there guessing, but that he thought he had Pitcher B’s number and was never fooled?
*No one, at least not me, is suggesting that an inferior player should play over a superior one, just because the inferior one has gone 3 for 10 against a pitcher while the superior one has gone 1 for 10.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions
In this example
The answer to you r first question is not based on the 30 PAs you’ve cited, no. If the scouting says something different, eh, maybe. Even then 4000 PAs is huge and I’d be very skeptical.
Question 2: Player’s say shit like that all the time. Pitchers learn a new pitch. A player changes his stance, Colby gets his eyes checked. 95% of the time it’s nonsense. So no, I tend to think that players need to be protected from their own mental fallacies.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
I didn’t understand your response to my first question.
As for the second, yes, selection bias would be an issue. The problem is you can’t know what effect if any it has. Further, you can’t know if the confidence of the player, even if it’s post-selection placebo effect, affects his performance in the next individual matchup. Last, the fact that all those little things change matchup to matchup is an argument against your non-predictive stance. It then becomes a problem of the tools available to predict, not whether it’s possible to predict.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 21, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
So....
what you’re saying is that the Cardinals should continue to struggle to hit Bud Norris….until they don’t?
Seriously — that’s an awesome position to have, because you can NEVER be wrong!
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
No, that's not close to what I was saying.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I get it
Now we deny that we didn’t have a concrete point.
Debating you is like debating a shapeshifter, you position is always changing.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Of course
None of us ever get it, because we clearly don’t think on the same level as you do.
You’re clearly always right, even when your argument changes midstream.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I was actually thinking about a similar thing last night.
After I heard all the “Skip is 6-12 vs. Kendrick” talk, I wondered what the cutoff is for SSS concerns for specific batter v. pitcher matchups. And I wonder of 6-12, or simply any results-based analysis is even meaningful. I mean if Skip somehow got those six singles via three bloopers and hitting three balls straigt at an Adam Dunn-equse defender, how is that even predictive at all?
It's basically impossible for it to be meaningful vs. one pitcher
I can see “matchups” based on type of pitcher (GB/FB, slider/curve/changeup pitcher), but basing what a guy is in even 40 ABs against a pitcher is a joke.
Not afraid to nitpick
What 'is' possible is for a guy to feel comfortable
with the repertoire and ‘stuff’ of the guy he’s facing. Sure, video is great, but I think Tony places a ton of emphasis on ‘confidence’. Whether or not something is predicative or not, Tony seems to believe that ‘if you’ve hit a guy before, you at least “believe” that you’ll hit him again’.
Is this complete and total bullshit? Maybe. But it does exist in Tony’s mind, at least, and I can respect that enough to treat it as a variable when looking at things.
Yeah
I don’t know about anyone else, but there was a pitcher I LOVED to face in little league because I felt comfortable with the way he pitched.
by Mulliganstew on Jul 20, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Anecdotally I'd say experience vs. no experience helps
But hitting in 10 ABs vs. not hitting in 10 ABs doesn’t do it for me…..especially when you are talking matchups from 3-4 years ago.
Not afraid to nitpick
This is a great point.
A young Randy Winn may have had great success against an old Jamie Moyer (as opposed to a very old Jamie Moyer), but hat does not mean an old Randy Winn will have that same success.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I think it can mean something
some hitters probably just see some pitchers’ release points better. It’s hard to use as a predictor, but I wouldn’t go as far as to call it meaningless.
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
it very well could mean something....
the strongest correlations are built from small sample sizes.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
those must be his only ten right-handed hits
he’s looking to be about as much of a switch-hitter as gotay. i like winn, but he looks pretty bad from the right side, unfortunately, considering we already have the lefty jay for backup outfield.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I don't like Winn against a soft-tossing lefty at ALL.
Rasmus or Jay plse.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
colby's gotta be in there tonight unless he's not healthy
moyer barely counts as a LHP
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
Jennie Finch is retiring.
aw.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
From Celebrity Softball?
Good, she got shelled last week and it was clear she’s got nothing left.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
I kept waiting for one of her male teammates to "accidentally" give her a butt pat after the HR
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I did
in my mind
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Great legs, too.
"They punched me a lot," Holliday said of the celebration [after his July 18 walk-off single]. "But they were good punches."
I mean, MC Hammer, seriously?
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
on friday we had a thread going about the espn rumor that the cards were interested in Tejada....
It seems like he is a guy the Cardinals could pick up for peanuts assuming they want to pick up his contract….not that Freese is out that might not seem like too bad of a move. . . I know he has lost a step defensively but I doubt he’s worse than Lopez at 3rd. Most people dismissed the rumor but if it did have any truth to it I would imagine it may be picking back up if the Cardinals see Freese missing some significant time. Anyone have any idea how long It takes to recover from a broken toe?
by mick311 on Jul 20, 2010 11:16 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
TLR said last night it won't affect his return.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
Really?
I find that hard to believe, but I guess I’ll defer to the MD, er, I mean JD.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
It wouldn't effect his return compared to his original time table.
The problem is, his original time table might have been longer than we expected.
Ahh, yes.
I see. I had no idea that broken toes heeled as quickly as pesky high (I assume) ankle sprains.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I've busted up toes before.
It’s uncomfortable, but it’s not in the same ballpark as say… messed up fingers. With some padding and tweaking inside your shoes, you don’t really feel it, though it might be hard to really drive the ball for a bit, depending which foot it is.
Probably makes a difference...
if it’s on the left (plant) or right (push) foot. I could see it not being a big deal with the left foot, but a bigger deal on the right…then again I have no idea.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on Jul 20, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh, jamming that left foot down could be a problem too.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
Maybe...
but the pressure would likely be on the outside of the foot instead of the toe. What is Freese’s timing mechanism on his swing? Does he have a leg kick, or does he just lift his heel? I could see the latter being a problem.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on Jul 20, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
yep, i think tony was playing loose with the facts there
it’s his big toe – that’s pretty important, i think.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i dont even see how thats possible....
Right after the ASbreak Mo gave his updates on the injured players and said Freese was about 2 weeks away. So if that’s still the case ‘according to tony’ then the toe is pretty much a non factor. . . . I just think its another case of the cardinals being overly optimistic about return from injury. Let’s just hope this time 2 weeks doesn’t really mean season ending. Ill be happy if Freese is back by the start of or mid-august.
by mick311 on Jul 20, 2010 12:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Okay
I think it will affect his return
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
he's done
keep him away from my team
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Ugh. Pass on Tejada, frankly.
I’d rather just roll with what we’ve got.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
yummy
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
for those of you not in the know,
codyg and i (mostly cosyg) engineered a brillent 3 way trade
cards get ricky nolasco who is under team control though 2012 and by all accounts, a damn fine and underrated pitcher
padres get ryan ludwick while they are attempting to win now and he’s probably their second best hitter and cleanup guy down the stretch
marlins get bryan anderson, one of the padres prospects and another low-level prospect from either team
win. win. win. get it done, mo! i know you’re reading this!
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if this is plausible
Certainly enticing for the Cards and Pads. I wonder if that’s enough for the Marlins though.
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Pretty indefinite...
Looks like the Padres prospect would have to be the top one in their system. Bryan Anderson and a lower level guy definitely ain’t pulling Nolasco.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree. I would love Nolasco though.
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
keep in mind
nolasco has a 4.66 ERA and is coming off a season of 5.06 ERA. he has much, much better peripherals, but the results haven’t been there. he’s also coming up on his second arb year and the marlins just won’t be able to afford him. i think they’d be happy to get rid of him for two B prospects
it would be an excellent buy low by the cards on him
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't mind cutting out the middle man, and dealing Jay to them, plus a middling prospect arm.
Would it be enough? I don’t know. I don’t see trading Ludwick in mid-season being a good idea, although off-season is an entirely different story.
i could probably stomach that
but i think, in the end, i’d rather be trading ludwick than jay
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
really?
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
you'd rather trade ryan ludwick than john jay?
are you talking in season or offseason…. offseason makes more sense, but in no world would i rather trade ludwick than jay
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
i guess it really depends
on what we are trading for. Ludwick should be a lot more back than Jay.
If it was trade Jay or Ludwick for player X. I think the Jury would send jay out every time.
well i guess but i don't value jay very highly
and doubt he’d net much more than a 5th starter in return…. so i guess in that sense trading luddy would make more sense
but if we can trade jay for somebody decent, especially at starter, i’d be all over that
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
The Pads have some relief pitching to spare at this point
I could see them throwing in a young reliever like Gregerson, and their bullpen surviving just fine without him. I think the offensive upgrade of Luddy would offset the loss of Gregerson from their pen. Seems like the Marlins could use a good arm for their pen, but then again, I really haven’t followed them at all this year. How does their pen look right now?
RFL for GG!
by stxcardsfan on Jul 20, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I think we might slightly overvalue a year and a half of Ludwick, especially if they take on his salary.
They aren’t going to give up good, cost effective players for him when they’re really built to start contending next year.
it's not like he's making a fortune
i’d pay all but a million of his salary if that’s what it takes for them to come off a prospect that gets us 2.5 years of nolasco
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
like dewitt said
money is easy to come by. talent is not
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Ryan Ludwick will be a Jason Werth type pickup for a financially limited team like the Pads.
Werth will pull some big bucks during FA this offseason, with a team like the Pads unable to sign him. But the poor man’s Werth, Luddy, can be brought in with at least 1 more year of team control, at a fair price. Luddy is looking for some security, and probably could be had for a 4 year extension at ~ $7-8mil per. That could be a great fit for the Pads. A young team on the rise, not looking to spend outrageous money for a solid bat. Luddy and the Pads look to be a great fit.
RFL for GG!
by stxcardsfan on Jul 20, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
A 4-year contact,
for a player with Ludwick’s injury history, that would cover his Age 33, 34, 35, and 36 seasons, and at a total of $32MM, seems like a terrible deal for most any team.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
yeah, can't see lud getting four years from anyone
possibly an AL team, but even then i doubt it.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
MLB has seen far worse contracts than this in recent years...
ok, so make it 3 years for $21mil, I think Luddy takes that deal and deserves the security the contract provides. Luddy’s early injuries were fluke occurances, as the injuries were due to fielding injuries from running into outfield walls and such. Yeah, he’s had some hamstring issues the last few years, but for $7-8 mil per for his bat and defense, I think it’s a fair risk, that should pay off for a team like the Pads.
RFL for GG!
by stxcardsfan on Jul 20, 2010 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Phillies signed Ibanez to 3 yrs/$31.5m for his age 37-39 seasons
Ibanez made them look pretty good last year, but his .252/.335/.400 line this year is looking like the sharp decline that everyone and their momma saw coming.
to be fair
he had a good 2-3 months at the begining on the year last year, and has been at this current level of meh since…
i doubt they would give up gregerson
he’s a pretty core part of their bullpen
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I think they're looking to trade Bell before they touch Gregerson or Adams.
Those two are two of the best relievers in baseball.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
that's pretty vague with regards to what the Padres give up.
would Tate do the trick?
babip giveth... and babip taketh away
by purple_haze on Jul 20, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
i don't know
i couldn’t name a single padres prospect, but i would imagine there’s someone they would make available for luddy that isn’t necessarily the future superstar type. they have said they are looking to add, so they must have pieces they’re willing to part with
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
the Padres system is pretty thin
Tate is19 and a long way from the majors but probably the highest upside in that system.
babip giveth... and babip taketh away
by purple_haze on Jul 20, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
So are we witnessing this team
finally becoming what we thought they’d be? The offense seems to finally be turning the corner, even without Freese and Luddy available (love seeing Craig getting some big hits this week). If this offense can continue to click as is, then I feel the need for a starter decreases. If this offense continues to win games like it did the last few days, and we can build a lead over cincy in the next week or 2, then I say wait for Lohse/Penny, and roll with what we have. If it looks like they will be further delayed, you can always pick up someone on waivers in August if needed (like a Jeff Weaver).
I really feel like Lohse comes back soon and is lights out for the stretch, but just a gut feeling with no physical evidence to back it. I’ve got my fingers crossed that Penny can make it back in Sept.
RFL for GG!
well, McClellan's beard is pretty close to Franklin-ish, and Boggs may have topped out his Trever Miller beard... but we just don't know what Motte's doing.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Motte doesn't know what Motte is doing.
Only the glove knows.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
great shot of him last night
running away from Winn’s home run ball.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I saw that. Didn't know who it was.
Some how, it makes sense though.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
he looks like he needs a little net to catch butterflies
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Jul 20, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Cardinals don't need nets to catch butterflies
or moths.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
FSM cut to close up in slow motion with commentary.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
like it was a mouse in the house
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Stretch is gonna be tough
Aug 20 – Oct 3 will be 43 games in 45 days. The Cards are gonna need more starting pitching in order to make the playoffs.
maybe not
Rolen got hurt
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 20, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
luddy's good, but
unlikely to match what jaybird and milk carton have done in the most recent past. they are plain hot, and unlikely to have their production replaced quantitatively by any one
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
the most recent past? as in since the all-star break
Craig/Jay in RF has produced a ..333/.444/.555 line
this sustuinable how exactly?
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
...That's a pretty awesome line
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
indeed
simply take 9 at-bats, get two doubles, and one walk… shouldn’t be that hard
also since Ludwick went down, RFs are 16-48….. including Stavinoha who is like 2-15 or something really awful…..
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
That's better than a $17MM line...
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Wouldn't it be in the .300's?
I thought Jay had a .447 BABIP or something and Craig was still sub-.200?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
All right.
My mistake.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
OT
Jayson Stark trivia on Mike and Mike: Name the 2 active players in 300-HR, 200-SB Club.
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
Abreu is a good guess though
266HR 364 SB according to BR
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
soirano
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
arod
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
that crossed my mind
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Soriano, Rodriguez.
Almost has to be, I’d think.
I agree
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Correct
Soriano and ARod
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Lol Wiki lists him as active haha
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Soriano and A-Rod
Has to be those two guys.
Mike Cameron’s got to be pretty close, no? Same with Beltran? I would guess Abreu is short in the homer department.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
other close ones
(yes I’m looking these up now that we know the answer….)
Damon 213 HR/381 SB
Jeter 232 HR/315 SB
Guerrero 427 HR/179 SB
Rollins 150 HR/332 SB
Pudge (!!!) 306 HR/127 SB
Rolen 300 HR/115 SB
I don't think any of those guys get there.
Cameron’s got to have a shot though — he’s got 270 some dingers I think…
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
making my contract mandated
weekly post to say, I’m in StL today to take pass my board exam at 4:00.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Good luck.
I hope you will celebrate at Busch Stadium this evening (assuming the exam ends by 7:00 p.m.).
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I've got
5 and a half hours to take it, but will be done in 2 to 3, so it would be a possibility. However, I have to work in the morning so it looks like its going to be a business only trip.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Ah well, I'm out for the day.
Viewing today, Funeral tomorrow. I really, really, really hate these things.
Funerals suck man
Best wishes
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Is it wrong to be optimistic about the prospect of having Lohse back on the team?
I know his contract is the closest thing we have to an albatross and he has been pretty ineffective for about a whole season but considering his 2008 was really very, very good and not particularly luck driven (.303 BABIP, slightly elevated LOB% and decreased HR/FB, but nothing tremendously out of the ordinary). AND considering his brilliant start to 2009 (23-straight outs against the ‘Stros) before he got plunked AND consideriing that there is no real precedent for this type of injury so there may be no/few ill effects. There’s the potential for him to come back and post a sub-4.00 ERA or even a sub-3.50 ERA (well maybe thats too optimistic)
i'm excited
when you consider his 2009, plus his start to 2009 and now realize that all his ineffectiveness since then was at least largely a result of a lingering, bizarre injury, i think having him back will be huge
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree.
I find myself counting down the days to Lohse’s return. And I hate his contract.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jul 20, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
if he can be anything resembling 2008
he’s worth it
lest we not forget, he was the ace in 2009 until fucking mahay
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
That seems like five years ago, doesn't it?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
fuckin' mahay!
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Cintron!
wait…
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
I still remember we were watching the tie breaker game
Mahay had been traded to the Twins, unbeknownst to most of us, then he came up and everyone burst out, “MAHAY!”
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
or picked up. who would trade 'em.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jul 20, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh man, if I saw Ron Mahay on the street
…
…I would walk past him without noticing.
I’M SORRY KYLE, I CANNOT AVENGE YOU
Was it necessarily a result of the lingering, bizarre injury?
It’s possible, but I don’t think it’s definite. He could be great, and I hope he is, but I’m not counting on it.
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
look at how well he pitched while he was being completely misdiagnosed!
I’m optimistic, although I’m not going to expect his 2008 season again. All he has to do is be decent and it’s a huge win for us.
even if he's healthy and good
it’s going to take a while to build up his innings, but i guess we have that situation now anyway. plus, bad lohse was way better than soup. hawk’s been ok.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
he's already throwing 50 pitch bullpens
he’s eligible to come off the DL in early august. i think he could get in enough rehab starts between now (read: early next week) and then (3 or 4) to be MLB ready right in time to come off the DL
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
i hope he does a rehab
not the three wasted MLB rehab starts…ick
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
by punchinjudy on Jul 20, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
he has to
he’s not eligible to come off the 60 day DL yet and he’s said to be making a rehab start as early as next week
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
good
i hate it when they waste starts for MLB rehabs..its like ok he should have done a minors stint…they did it with pinata once…was terrible…they never seem to have it back, so going to theminors for 1-2 starts i think is worth it
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
yeah, ok, i like that timeline
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Hawksworth looks disappointed
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Hot stove thread
Only 10 days til the deadline, anyone gonna throw up a hot stove catch-all in the fanposts for our wildly inaccurate predictions?
by lopey986 on Jul 20, 2010 12:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
no need for specualtion
we might as well just call it the ricky nolasco thread
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
So I did my job shadowing last night
Met everybody in the front office that was there, including Tony fucking Blengino, who is the special assistant to the GM and has been a member of SABR since 2003.
Annnnnd I think I’m smarter than the guys there that are around my age. So that’s a good sign I suppose
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Depends...
on if you really are smarter, or if you just “think” your smarter.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on Jul 20, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, they were explaining to each other what OPS+ meant when comparing Jeff Kent and Robbie Alomar
So…
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
noobs
did you tell them that OPS+ is a shit stat and that the only offensive metric that matters is wOBA?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, VEP and anybody who knows more about UZR than I do
I talked to one of the stats analysts here last night, and he says that he doesn’t trust UZR for OF defense but it’s fine for IF
Does that stem from the fact that (and this is related to the discussion above) that there are very few BIP that both a 3B and a SS can get to, but there are lots of balls that both a LF and a CF can get to, do to the ball being in the air longer? Or is that because the ballpark dimensions actually affect OFers and not IFers? Probably both?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
What would be more effective stat for OF than UZR then?
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
by mstreeter06 on Jul 20, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
errors & assists
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
that
and there’s going to be way less noise with positioning (outside of the odd shift) and the weirdly hit batted ball types that a fielder might normally get to, but can’t
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
and probably also because a grounder is a grounder
but classifying balls in the air as liners or flies could have an effect
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
This was my argument against UZR last year
Rasmus looked artificially better last year because he was covering for Duncan in LF by shifting. UZR holds about the same weight to be as batting avg
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 20, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
but that's not
“artificially better” he was getting to those balls because his range is that good
he’s not having to get to those balls because holliday is a pretty damn good defender by LF standards
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
's more because of park effects the LD/FB discrpency.
For infielders, your just looking at location of the batted ball and how hard it was hit (almost all the time it will be a grounder) so there really isn’t much discrepency there.
For OF your looking at how hard it was hit, the location of the batted ball AND the launch angle. When you also consider there are park effects in the outfield and there is more room for error given the lack of a reference point, I would say UZR for infielders is going to be more accurate.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 20, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
OT
RT @Kevin_Goldstein: Want crazy? #BlueJays catcher J.P. Arencibia has 20 home runs in his last 35 games
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
i think
there’s gotta be something in the needles water in toronto
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
he's in vegas, right?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
also, vegas?
the toronto blue jays have a minor league affiliate in las vegas?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
yeah, that's where walrus is
i wouldn’t mind being stuck in AAA in vegas
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
saw him play in Portland on the 4th
he crushes baseballs
I have a hate relationship with the Cardinals' roster makeup decisions. | Cards on Cards
so I guess Freese is going to be one of those guys who is hurt all the time
so, are they ever going to figure out if Craig can play third base? seems like now is the time. or do you think Lopez should continue starting at third? not the worst thing, but we could use slightly more pop at the hot corner. after Craig’s dinger last night, seems like he could be that guy.
I’m really hoping that Lohse comes back effectively within the next 3 or 4 weeks, that would be freakin sweet. I’m not too thrilled about making any trades. the last 2 games have been a lot of fun to listen to on the radio, despite Mike Shannon not being on there. they have just been exciting games to listen to even though the announcers were pretty boring.
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 20, 2010 12:55 PM EDT reply actions
There isn't that much on which to base this conclusion as to Freese's health.
He injured himself in a car accident and missed time last season. And then he sprained his ankle rounding third, missing time this season. I’d consider these more impact injuries than a demonstration of his body’s inability to handle wear and tear. Maybe Freese will continue to suffer bizarre bad luck types of injuries every year, but I doubt it.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
accident prone?
i mean, dropping a weight…
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Jul 20, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The Monkey's Paw.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
clumsy
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 20, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
more importantly though
can craig play third base
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 20, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
most importantly
can craig play second base
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 20, 2010 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
who's taller?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I would guess that Freese is
or if we got Mather a super cyborg wrist he could probably play there
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 20, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
the solution here is to just stop fielding a third baseman until Rolen retires.
we’re clearly cursed.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
…wait, that means Boog has a permanent job.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I don't know much
but I’m pretty confident Craig will never play 3B for the St. Louis Cardinals.*
- comment does not include any game that lasts longer than 11 innings or any double or triple switch scenarios
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Re: Stav's (possible) remaining options
I asked BJ Rains. He’s going to check on it tonight.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
Does anybody else hate it when people who don't follow the Cardinals every day
write about what the team should do?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
you're talking about the fangraphs article that tells us nothing
it tells us, we are buyers not sellers – thanks…. it tells us we should get carmona/westbrook/name serviciable 4-5th starter here – thanks…. it tells us are farm sucks and our budget is tight….
they really tell us nothing new
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Except our farm has proven that it DOESN'T suck
It doesn’t have the 6+ WAR potential guys, outside of Shelby Miller, but it has a bunch of people who are going to be league average or better. We were ranked 30th or 29th at the beginning of this year, and this year, we’ve brought up Garcia, Freese, Jay, and Craig
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
i think that ranking
was after Freese and Garcia were on the big club.
The Cardinal’s farm has been ranked bad for years now. Yet most of our players are home grown and we have been in the divisional race few a few years running.
No
Freese and Garcia were still considered part of the Farm when the rankings came out
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 20, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Link? Sounds interesting
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
man
where were you for the public battle betweem luhnow and keith law?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I just went through all of Luhnow's tweets
Nothing about Law or rankings… deleted?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
VEB
convo from when it happened.
It looks like the links back to the pd’s original stoery are both dead though.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Can't agree with erik here
From my dealings with Strauss over twitter, he can be condescending and just plain ornery at times, but overall he’s pretty reasonable and I’d say is a good guy.
The Straussicorn tends to seem like an unprofessional douche to me.
yeah, the success of these 4 (well, particularly the first two) makes me question the accuracy of these farm rankings.
i guess they are “old” in baseball terms.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
Can we back down all this THE FARM SYSTEM is awesome talk for a second?
The premise seems based on Garcia (who was coming off 30 innings and TJ surgery), Freese (who hasn’t shown himself to have the power or defense the front office predicted), Jay (who has a .419 BABIP despite a 11% line drive rate) and Craig (who has an unlucky .224 wOBA).
Point being, Jaime Garcia has turned out to be a best case kind of scenario. Freese has faded as the season progressed and the other two have about ~100 combined ABs. These aren’t pillars of strength that prove Lunhow right. The farm system does seem very weak to me with a lot of questionable talent and guys who have faltered BADLY this year (Jones, Zawacki, Samuel, etc). I don’t think the analysts are very far off.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
by azruavatar on Jul 20, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
They were identifying a trend of horrible rankings of our farm system that
has managed to produce very nice major league players despite a horrible ranking.
Players like Boog, Schumaker, Motte, McClellan, Boggs, Garcia, Craig, Jay, Rasmus, and the like. That’s a lot of decent major league production from such a terrible system.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Actually...
when Boggs, KMac, Motte and Rasmus were in AAA our farm system had it’s best ranking in years. Then we traded Perez, Wallace, Todd and Mortenson, and promoted all these other guys…leaving the cupboard a bit bare. Schu and Boog have done better at the ML level than they ever did in MiLB.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
...I don't think those guys were ever in AAA at the same time
KMac never even went to Memphis, I don’t think
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
that is correct
he was in springfield and made the bullpen out of spring training in ’08
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah...
I shoulda known better than to think I could get away with that. I would say Boggs, Motte and Rasmus were all in Memphis at the same time (2008); along with Perez, Todd and Mortenson. Wallace was at AA at that time (I believe). Regardless of what level they were at that is still a significant amount of talent that has resulted in our farm system’s rating dropping from middle of the pack to bottome of the pile.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
Yeah, but I would argue that....
amount of talent leaving via trade and promotion should have dropped us from near the top of the rankings down toward the middle, instead of from the middle to the bottom.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
But our system wasn't ranked horribly
when Rasmus and Garcia were still IN THE FARM SYSTEM.
They’re ranking our farm system right now, and right now it’s pretty awful outside of Shelby Miller. There are very few guys who even profile as regular position players right now, and most of our pitching talent are relievers and back end starters as their upside. That’s not a great farm system by any means.
I agree with Az, all the guys who were expected to really show some things this year haven’t done it, and a lot of them have failed miserably.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
This is the problem.
We don’t really have anyone who projects to be an everyday MLB position player. Might we get lucky a la Brendan Ryan? Sure, we might, but we don’t have another Colby Rasmus type anywhere in the system.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Adding Zach Cox will help quite a bit
If we can somehow get Austin Wilson to sign (not likely) that would help out IMMENSELY. Our system would jump 8 – 10 spots just with those two guys, imo.
We never sell at the deadline though. We either sit tight and do nothing, or buy like we did last year. The teams with the awesome farm systems are occasionally selling at the deadline or their drafting over slot. The Cardinals really don’t do either of those things, nor have we been great at developing talent like the Braves.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I agree wholeheartedly.
I really hope that we signed both Cox and Wilson, but I understand what a long shot that is. There is no question that competing year in and year out hurts our system. With our highest draft pick in years, we drafted the Walrus and then we promptly traded him. I think that we have to keep drafting talented players with signability issues and pay over slot in order to build up a system with talented position players. Hopefully the last two drafts are indicative of this type of thinking within the organization.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Look, I hate to be a downer here
but your list is a shortstop who has stopped hitting, a bad defensive second baseman who is struggling offensively, a reliever, a sketchy reliever, a pitcher who just had TJ, two guys with limited MLB numbers and minor league numbers that are just good and Rasmus.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
But that's half my point.
This club is structured so that we can actually afford a few high-end FA players. What they can’t afford is to field an expensive ’pen, bench, and middle infield.
They have Pujols (hopefully), Holiday, Waino, Carp etc…. built as the core. They need a constant infusion of depth from the minors. they need good glove shortstops, #4-5 starter types, bullpen help, and the occasional diamond to come from the system. they have done exactly that.
We have a 25 man roster. On that roster are Pujols, Waino, Boog, Schumaker, Molina, Freese, Craig, Jay, Rasmus, Luddy, Boggs, Garcia, McClellan, Hawksworth, Salas. Every one of these guys came from our system. Also, trade chips from that same system were able to net Holliday for a division run last year. I’ll certainly live with a farm system that can produce those kinds of bullets.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
It has served the current big-league roster fairly well, I suppose.
But, that is the curve of judgment here. Other organizations have multiple Rasmus types. They have multiple high ceiling starters. We have one high ceiling starter now and no one who projects to be an everyday starter as a position player. When Ryan falls off of a cliff or Skip doesn’t hit, we are in trouble. Never mind if one of our real high-priced stars goes down. Just look at what we plugged our leaky rotation with: the corpse of Jeff Suppan and Hawk.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
And of course. . .
the counter to this argument is that of those multiple Rasmuses (Rasmii?), some significant portion of them wil have more value in trade then they have in actual utility as a major league player for hte franchise that drafted them. FWIW, the Cards have thus far done a prettty good job of making those determinations, with Dan Haren being a glaring exception, and Luke Gregerson being a bit less glaring exception. The jury is still out on Barton and Wallace.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure, it has.
But really, Schumaker, Ryan, Greene, Boggs, and Hawksworth are all replacement level talent, if we’re being honest. We’ve gotten good production out of those guys, but those guys exist in just about every farm system.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Would you trade our system for the Rays?
Because they keep cranking out top end talent over and over and over and haven’t drafted in the top 10 in about 5 years now.
Sure, we’ve gotten some nice pieces from our farm system, but our current farm system stinks like a landfill. I don’t know how you can argue otherwise. Our top 5 starting pitching prospects are Miller, Lynn (who’s struggled at AAA this year), and 3 guys who can’t even cement the fifth spot in the rotation and essentially forced our GM to go out and get Jeff Suppan. We have exactly one middle infielder in the minors who profiles as a regular right now (Descalso), and even that might be a bit of a stretch. Mather is the only OF that could help us, and he’s so old that he’s not even really a prospect anymore.
We need to build around the core players that we have, but you’re really stretching the truth when you say that we’re better off with those players vs. the players from the farm systems of the other teams in the majors right now. The Cubs aren’t too far ahead of us in the rankings, but I’d give my left nut to have Starlin Castro right now. The kid would solidify our SS (and possibly leadoff) position for the next 5-6 seasons.
We don’t develop great talent, we draft it, and we draft it high — but we also have missed on a number of picks since 2005 (Lambert, Kozma, Greene (to and extent he’s never been a first round talent), etc.) It’s a good thing we can afford a $100M payroll, because our farm system cannot support our ballclub by itself.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Because they keep cranking out top end talent over and over and over and haven’t drafted in the top 10 in about 5 years now.
They had top 10 picks in 3 out of the last 5 years, including two No. 1 overall picks in 2007 and 2008 (Beckham and Price) and the No. 3 pick in 2006 (Longoria).
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, my mistake
Thanks for pointing it out.
Still, the only guy I can think of that they’ve missed on is Beckham, and he’s not a total bust yet, and they get really good value out of the rest of the draft as well.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
We're not talking about the players on the big club now who are homegrown
We’re talking about the strength of the farm right now. Outside of Miller it’s pretty grim. That doesn’t mean the organization is screwed or anything like that but you can’t argue that up is down and our system is actually good. It’s not.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 20, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm gonna make
a rough guess that it was early june when freese rolled is ankle on the third base bag
he was slugging .460 up to that point. i don’t know what kind of power beyond that you can reasonably expect from him and his defense has been nothing short of solid. i also don’t see how the fact that jaime pitched 30 innings last year after TJ has any bearing on what a huge asset he’s been thus far
and freese’ defense is nothing short of perfectly solid
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
While I've always been a believer in Jaime Garcia
(perhaps because of an lboros scouting report from a few years ago), I don’t think any of us would say that Garcia was slam dunk to be our no. 3 starter. In fact, he was competing to be our fifth starter in Spring Training and a lot of folks wanted him in Memphis because of his injury history. That recent surgery seems to have undercut his potential in many talent evaluators’ eyes, and understandably so, in my view. I doubt even the most wide-eyed fan of faberge eggs would have predicted Garcia would do what he has done up to this point in 2010.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
wait
i didn’t think we were debating the rankings as they stood then. i’m debating the pre-season farm system in retrospect. the fact that garcia has outperformed even his dad’s wildest expectations says nothing bad about the system
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
w/r/t to Garcia
analysts were rightfully cautious about him coming back from TJ. Just because things have been great thus far doesn’t mean that, at the time of rankings, that was the wrong assumption to make on Garcia.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
Yeah...
but it’s not like you follow the minors on a daily basis…what do you know?
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
Eh. . .
I don’t think our farm system is awesome or anything, I just think that those types of organizational rankings have very limited utility:
Despite being merely a snapshot of the state of the system at one particular time, and devoid of context (i.e. we just promoted Cody Ramos, Jason Motte and traded Brett Wallace and Chris Perez and Jess Todd and Clayton Mortensen and Luke Gregersen), they are generally treated as a report card of sorts on the organization’s player development prowess, which can be unfair.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
There's very little impact talent
outside of Shelby Miller. Craig and Jay really aren’t “prospects” — if you’re trading for them you intend to play them.
I think guys like Kelly and Hooker could be good pitchers down the road, but they don’t have a high amount of upside.
We have a lot of players who might be middle relievers, 5th starters, or 4th outfielders, but very little in the way of All-Star type god-given talent. That’s why our ratings are so low.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
hey...the phillies optioned kendrick today. another one bites the dust!
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
I just read that....haha
We have that kind of effect.
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
Hey Houston,
Suck it; you suck
huh?
with that obp he had last night
staggering
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
I missed all of it
I got to hear Bernie talking about Allen Craig, Professional Hitter.
"I told myself from the very beginning: 'If he's going to throw a shutout, then he's going to tie,'" Wainwright said. "He was not going to beat me today."
bernie asked about his reputation as being bad defensively
then my secretary came in and talked over craig’s answer
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
I just read an extra period into the second one.
“That bitch. That. Bitch.”
by DanUpBaby on Jul 20, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
You can read those posts in whatever tone you like.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
Lou retired.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
after the season?
huh, I missed that part of the presser. gotta look at that again.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
yes according to FESPN
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Lou Grahmm?
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
damnit
*Gramm
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Really....Like I'm done...in the middle of the season?
HFS>
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Say hello
to the Cubs 2011 manager — Ryne Sandberg.
Book it. Done.
Repeal The LaRussa Tax.
by Michael_68_1999 on Jul 20, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
no more slow walks...
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
OT: ilya kovalchuk signs a 17 year deal for $102 million
holy shit, i know this ain’t like baseball, but 17 years? he’ll be 44 when it ends
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
first-order salary cap hijinks
he’s being paid like he’s got one of those cal ripken jr president of funtime baseball operations jobs for the last five years.
My career aspirations here...
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
yep...NHL salary cap is based
off of AAV, not per year….so the contract is frontloaded but long as hell…..Basically a giant middle finger to the NHL, as I understand it.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
It's a total joke
And a big risk. There’s a very real chance they tweak the CBA so any player who retires after 35 stays on your books for the remainder of the contract…..which would leave them with ~7 years of a 6M cap hit for nothing. Not to mention hockey is a young players game and superstar goal scorers don’t age well. This contract could sink the Devils for a full decade no hyperbole.
Not afraid to nitpick
If they chnge the CBA though,
would it affect the Devils though? I would think the contract would have to fall under the CBA it was signed under, which has this loophole.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
They could do whatever they want
Kovalchuk is Adam Dunn anyway. He might put up 40 goals, but skating infinity signs around the blue line gives a lot of that value back. Devils might be the best fit given Brodeur…..but he’s only going to be around for another couple years. This is a win now and worry about the next 13-15 years move.
Not afraid to nitpick
Man, what a burn on Craig, from Pujols...
Talking about both Jay and Craig:
“Those are guys who had great Spring Trainings,” Pujols said of the rookies. “The reason they didn’t make the ballclub is because we had every day starters. … With [Ryan] Ludwick and [David] Freese [on the disabled list] we were counting on them to get caught up and help us out to win. That is what they have been doing.”
I guess Craig’s unimpressive stint with the club during April must have slipped Pujols’ mind.
RFL for GG!
Flagged for insufficiently loving Allen Craig...
It was 20 at bats. All four of his line drives were caught.
You could be Soonered for this.
Fire La Russa!
kyle lohse is going to be on the fast lane soon.
i get the feeling that this is not a quality sports talk program. however, i am in arizona and will listen to any cardinals news i can get.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
he feels good, can't wait until tomorrow, facing hitters.
wants to be back out there in a game soon.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
heh, they asked him how he feels about not being the 5th OF anymore, now that they have Winn, Jay, and Craig
Kyle says it will be tough. was hoping for more long tie games.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
I just want you guys to know
I had three green comments in the game thread yesterday, and almost a fourth. I felt very loved by my wonderful VEB community. And I just want to emphasize the fact that I love you guys, too, and that — most importantly — there’s plenty of mojowo11 to go around. Erm…except for fang. He can’t have any.
by mojowo11 on Jul 20, 2010 3:23 PM EDT reply actions 10 recs
Yesh
I didn’t realize it was so popular until I went back to the thread just now, since recs don’t update live in the thread. His concentration on that play is really cool to see.
Good god, Albert Good God Albert is so awesome. Such a great tag. Here’s the screenshot, for anyone who missed it — Albert with a perfect tag waiting for Werth’s hand on a pickoff play.
Rec'd for blatant, unmoderated rec chasing
I’m the whore who’s just giving ’em away.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 20, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
screw you, bitch.
i’m nevar reccing you again.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jul 21, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I like hawksworth as a long reliever/6th starter
Certainly better than the guys we have recently had in that role.
Also, I think everyone should make it to at least one BP this year if only to watch Motte shag balls. It is effin’ amazing. He’s definitely my favorite cardinal in the non-baseball category.
"If I'm in a slump, I ask myself for advice" - Ichiro
by Toppins on Jul 20, 2010 3:28 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
OT: Can anyone tell me if Drew Benes was drafted (other than as a favor)
as 3bman or a RHP?
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jul 20, 2010 3:31 PM EDT reply actions
RHP
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
Ok, thanks.
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jul 20, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
gotta go drop off the car at the shop
good day for baseball chatter
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I purposely stayed away.
I knew what was coming and just took a break until Houston. Gotta take your rest days to make it through the whole season.
"If I'm in a slump, I ask myself for advice" - Ichiro
by Toppins on Jul 20, 2010 3:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
hey hey, I was there
at least for the TESS and one of the other two games
anyway, it’s no fun when it gets too BCB-ish here.
אנא טוני לא יותר ט.א.ס.ס
I've been crazy busy with work and summer semester
Today just happened to be a slower day.
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
So I was perusing Fangraphs today...
checking out how our pitchers stacked up in WAR. I noticed an oddity. Currently Randy Wells is more valuable than:
CC Sabathia
Dan Haren
Johan Santana
David Price
Colby Lewis
Jaime Garcia
Jason Vargas
Carp
This seemed to be the only real oddity (however, also seeing Carlos Silva’s and Livan Hernandez’s WAR higher than Carpenter’s was strange), but is there really any way that Randy Wells has been worth more than any of those guys?
"I got to get Dr. Freeze off my twig right now."-Nyjer Morgan
Quick look at FIP
Wells’ FIP is 3.36 over 112 IP, CC is 3.72 over 138 IP, Price is 3.62 over 120 IP and Garcia is 3.24 over 103 IP
So Wells is getting his value from having either a better FIP or more innings than the other pitchers. And after looking over the pitcher WAR posts on Fangraphs it seems there is even more in play, such as league run environment, park factors, etc. Anywa you slice it Wells has been a damn good pitcher this year.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
How-to WAR question
I’m trying to teach myself the basics of WAR, and I’m having trouble converting wOBA and UZR to WAR, though it’s supposed to be easy.
I’m looking at Pujols season so far and his wOBA is .412. League average is typically .335. Difference is .077. Now according to this I divide by 1.15, then multiply by PAs (404) to get wRAA, the offensive half of WAR. Pujols wRAA thus far is 27.05. Doesn’t this mean his bat has been worth 2.7 wins?
And now, what to I take from UZR to get WAR? Fangraphs has his WAR at 3.6, but his UZR is at -1.1. What do I do?
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker on Jason Motte
Austin Wilson, please don't be a tease!
I believe you are leaving out
the add on for replacement, and the position adjustment from WAR….2.7 (offense)+ 2.0 (replacement) -1.1 UZR = 3.6
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
ok so
skip schumaker has been worth -.5 wins with the bat so far and -5.5 with the glove, yet his WAR thus far is -.1, wheras I have it as -4. what did i do now?
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker on Jason Motte
Austin Wilson, please don't be a tease!
well...my quick math
using pj’s formula
wOBA = .295 – .324 = -.03 / 1.15 * 324 = -9.72
UZR = -7 +2.5 positional adjustment = -4.5
replacement = 22.5 runs…so that all adds up to
8.28 / 10 = .83 WAR which is not even close to FG’s number of -.1….
PJ, what are we doing wrong here?
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
so we don't add the 22.5
something more like 13 based on his 324 pA’s?
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Actual number was 12.15,
which works out to a -.2 WAR, and the other tenth can be accounted for in park adjustments. Works for me.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
replacement and positional adjustment need to be scaled to playing time
by vivaelpujols on Jul 20, 2010 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
positional as well....
cool.
That gives me -.32…..2 tenths in park adjustments? Is that reasonable?
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
WAR =
offense runs above average +
defense runs above average +
positional runs above average +
replacement runs +
baserunning/intangibles/anything else you want to try to quantify
All divided by 10.
Figuring out offense runs above average is (wOBA – lg wOBA)/1.15 * PA. Defense runs above average is just whatever you wanna guess at using UZR or whatever. Positional adjustement is + 2.5 runs for 2B, 3B, CF, +7.5 runs for SS, +12.5 runs for CA, -7.5 runs for LF/RF, -12.5 runs for 1B
Replacement level is +22.5 runs.
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2010/7/16/1572669/the-opposite-of-shell-shock#42221759
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Not the OP, but thank you.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
what is it good for
absolutely nothing..
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
so, it's not particularly likely,
but it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility if carp and jaime get hot that the cards could have three 20 game winners. when’s the last time that happened. or even three 18+ winners?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
jaime gets no run support
so im hoping for three 15 game winners….
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I have no idea why this info is at
a site called allbusiness.com, but if this link is to be believed it hasn’t happened since 1973. Tudor and Andujar had 20 for us in 1985, but Cox only had 18. The 1971 Orioles actually had four 20 game winners.
by BTown Birds fan on Jul 20, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's a story at the Yankees' official site suggesting they
might have three 20 game winners this year in Sabathia, Pettitte, and Hughes. This story is from just six days ago, so I guess it jinxed Pettitte.
by BTown Birds fan on Jul 20, 2010 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
milesup
lopez 3B
winn CF
pujols 1B
holliday LF
criag RF
molina C
miles 2B
carp P
ryan SS
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
man id liek to see this team healthy
soon
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
and phills
Rollins SS, Polanco 3B, Ibanez LF, Howard 1B, Werth RF, Victorino CF, Ruiz C, Valdez 2B, Moyer P
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
what the fuck is wrong with the phillies
how do you bat ibanez third and weth fifth
insane
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Chollie's dog's guy?
I am pleasantly pleased, thankyouverymuch
by mattyfrommo on Jul 20, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Because Werth has hit like shit for the past month.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
According to the lineup stuff I've read
the order of importance is: 2nd, 4th, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th. So really there’s not a great deal of difference between the #3 and #5 hitter in terms of importance.
They really probably should have Werth hitting 2nd, though, I guess.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 6:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd still rather see Colby in CF
but I guess another day of resting the hammy isn’t a terrible thing.
All in all, that’s not a terrible lineup
I am pleasantly pleased, thankyouverymuch
I agree with you now
Randy Winn should never hit second against a righty
I am pleasantly pleased, thankyouverymuch
isn't moyer a lefty?
but still…. Randy Winn should never hit second against a righty
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
Excluding Jon Jay's lucktastic year
Winn has been our 4th best hitter this year (behind Albert, Holliday, Rasmus and Luddy) and hasn’t been especially lucky (his BABIP has been about his career level).
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 6:33 AM EDT up reply actions
isn't moyer a lefty?
but still…. Randy Winn should never hit second against a righty
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
That was worth a double post though heh
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
he is so bad against lefties
he gets me so flustered by batting second that I don’t even know how to spell lefties
I am pleasantly pleased, thankyouverymuch
Ugh... Miles
I’d rather see Craig play 2B and Jay play RF
by Mulliganstew on Jul 20, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
has he played since the break?
the dude has earned the PT. give it to him
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I'd rather Tyler Greene step to the batters box without a baseball bat than watch Miles try to hit bloopers
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Jul 20, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I wanted to ask you what you thought Miles's chances were to hit a ball into the outfield,
given Moyer’s low pitch speed. Miles will have to provide the force to loop it to 150 feet and I don’t know if he can do it.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
At least with Moyer, Miles will have time during the pitch's flight to get a little running start
And take a Happy Gilmore swing.
obligatory
NIKO VASQUEZ AND PETE KOZMA ARE BETTER THAN MILES
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
obligatory
THE DESSICATED CORPSE I’M HIDING IN MY CLOSET IS BETTER THAN MILES
אנא טוני לא יותר ט.א.ס.ס
...
PATRICK ELKINS IS BETTER THAN MILES
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Descalso without a collarbone > Miles.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
anyone have Winns righty BA this year?
Has even recorded a hit with us this year from the right side?
by mick311 on Jul 20, 2010 5:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I forgot about that
this is a terrible lineup.
.125 .176 .156 (in 34 PA’s)
I am pleasantly pleased, thankyouverymuch
wow....i heard he has been hitting below .200
As a righty for a few years now…..tony played him against billingsly because of his career numbers against him, and since Tonys “genious” move worked he prob thought to himself it had to work again……
What he forgot was that Winn hasnt been able to hit right handed for years and most of his ABs against Moyer were probably from 20 years ago
by mick311 on Jul 20, 2010 5:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Maybe TLR in his dotage
got confused and thought this was the last game after the Cards already won the series.
"They punched me a lot," Holliday said of the celebration [after his July 18 walk-off single]. "But they were good punches."
wOBA vs. LHP (as RHB)
12.5% line drive percentage as a RHB in 2010!
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
I was driving at TLR perhaps remembering Winn as an effective RHB,
more than Winn still being an effective RHB. But, at least there was, at one time, some skill there.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
don't we know the answer to this question already?
because tony la russa.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
how about Jay in center Tony
sheesh
chief justice
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 20, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Lefties can't possibly hit Jamie Moyer
It’s been proven by science.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
To give TLR credit, however. . .
Allen Craig! In the 5-hole!
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jul 20, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
craig has gotten a lot of playing time since being called up.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
well, AP and Holliday are both in today. really wouldn't make sense to have him at 3 or 4.
actually, i take that back.
lopex
holliday
AP
craig
jay
molina
miles
pitcher
ryan
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
shit jay is not playing.
so yeah, then winn or molina would have to be 5. i guess craig is the best option there.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
I figured it out...
some guys have warning track power – Miles has blooper power. He chokes up, swings as violently as possible, and consistently drops it three feet past the shortstop.
Blooper power is a skill, not a liability. La Russa has known this for a long time and that’s why he’s smarter than you.
Fire La Russa!
Honestly though
What if this is exactly what Miles is doing? Is it at all possible that he knows he is better off just trying to chip it over the infield and sometimes actually tries to do it?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
He's actually hit a couple 15 year old boy line drives
So I don’t think he’s trying to hit it like a 10 old boy.
Not afraid to nitpick
Heh
It would be pretty impressive if he somehow turned himself into a switch hitting Ichiro (who sucked at defense).
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
That too
So no infield hits… and no occasional power…
Not Japanese… no charisma…
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Who is this Criag guy of which you speak?
Alien Criag?
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jul 20, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Criag
I like it
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions
It has Miles in it
BAD LINEUP
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
these people need to stop stealing our nicknames
wait, I want them to do an article on Stavinoha
I am pleasantly pleased, thankyouverymuch
That assclown should stick to the Yankees...
Seriously, the internet is a place of specialization. Why would anyone bother with Joe Powalowski on the Cardinals?
Fire La Russa!
Old Viva El Birdos fan
FYI, I checked and this page has about 120,000 words. Granted, some of these are signatures and bylines, but can there really be this much to say? The average novel has 20,000-40,000 words. I used to find this entertaining and informative, but now…well you know what I’m trying to say.
Dude. You have no idea.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
Responding just to drive up the word count
אנא טוני לא יותר ט.א.ס.ס
by chalk on Jul 20, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Since I was never bar mitzvah'd
I never learned to read Hebrew. Translation?
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jul 20, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
According to Google Translate
Please no more TESS, Tony
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
the funny thing is
that today was pretty much on topic.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
The good news is
I’m not even married, but I drew up a prenup after that, just to be safe.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
VEB: where words go to live?
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
by IHeartBoog on Jul 20, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
CAPRI SUN ROCKS!
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
If you've got any
hater’s going to hate gifs, now is an appropriate time to post them.
Remember the subject line!
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
...
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
by RiverRat on Jul 20, 2010 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
...
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
by azruavatar on Jul 20, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I gotta take credit for that heh
chief justice
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 20, 2010 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Whaaaaa?
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 21, 2010 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm just being lame
I posted that pic in a game thread first, it went green, yadda yadda yadda. now give me a million internet dollars
chief justice
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2010 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Riverat and chitown posted the same kid
by mick311 on Jul 20, 2010 5:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
<img src=“”http://media.photobucket.com/image/haters gonna hate bender/Richo92/hatersgonnahate.gif?o=1" target="_blank">
"/>
I am pleasantly pleased, thankyouverymuch
I've been looking forward to using that gif for WEEKS!!!!
f’in SBN!
I am pleasantly pleased, thankyouverymuch
damn it, it had a subject line
feel free to delete, robot overlord
I am pleasantly pleased, thankyouverymuch
Skaters gonna skate.
"They punched me a lot," Holliday said of the celebration [after his July 18 walk-off single]. "But they were good punches."
The average novel does not have 20,000-40,000 words.
I have to think it’s way higher than that. 20,000 words is a short story at most. Old Man and The Sea has just under 30,000 words and it’s tiny.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 6:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Can this be our slogan for a week or something?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
...
RT @mlbtraderumors Reds Offer Isringhausen Contract http://bit.ly/aSnDzT #mlb
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
.....scott spezio? Juan encarnacion???
by mick311 on Jul 20, 2010 6:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO TAGUCHI!!!
אנא טוני לא יותר ט.א.ס.ס
by chalk on Jul 20, 2010 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
In case of Billy Wagner, yell this.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
Anybody can play second.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Adam Wainwright reaches on force attempt, throwing error by Aaron Heilman. Jaime Garcia scores. Brendan Ryan to 3rd. Adam Wainwright to 2nd. None out.
He was a light hitting out fielder
of course he can play second.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
and then we won the world series
post hoc, ergo . . .
by brackenthebox on Jul 20, 2010 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
he played second full-time for a while in japan
I think I read somewhere that he had a case of the yips.
roffle
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions
...
Skip Schumaker is out of Tuesday’s lineup against the Phillies due to discomfort in his left wrist.
Schumaker jammed the wrist while making a diving play during Monday’s game. Consider him day-to-day for now. Aaron Miles will start at second base in his place and bat seventh against Jamie Moyer.
oh dear
Aaron Miles will start at second base
im scared for the next week or so…. get healthy TYLER!
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I remember spezio pitching a few times....
Im sure he could of shut down the mets for a few innings in that never ending game…..
Speaking of that game, I don’t know if anyone has brought this up but I was thinking, what if that game happened last year or we still had Ankiel. I wonder if Tony would of let him pitch. That would have been really interesting to see….
by mick311 on Jul 20, 2010 6:42 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Really? You think no way?
Not even in a game like that where he Is out of pitchers and throwing position players out there anyway?
by mick311 on Jul 20, 2010 6:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yes....
There’s an article from good reporter on this, but eff the pd and their crappy database.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
What kind of wOBA
can we expect out of Jon Jay and Allen Craig going forward?
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker on Jason Motte
Austin Wilson, please don't be a tease!
to both PJ and VEP
what are your estimates based on? i didn’t see any ZiPS on FG for these guys, and minorleaguesplits calculator only lets you use 1 league’s numbers for a player, which I don’t think would be very indicative for a player in development.
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker on Jason Motte
Austin Wilson, please don't be a tease!
.4(optimism) + .3(bias) + .3(realism)
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 20, 2010 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
also
i just worked up his wOBA based on his MLEs based on last season in AAA and got .365
pretty sure i did it right, but i just assumed 0 ROE and regressed his PAs the same percent that the MLE calculator regressed ABs
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
THT Forecasts, which use MLE's
Has Jay at .301 going forward and Craig at .323. Subscription required. I think both are a bit pessimistic, so I bump them 20 points.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 20, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
i will eat my sock
if they put up .500+ wOBA
two bonds on one team? lawdy
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
didn't want you to choke on your sock
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jul 20, 2010 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
so
who’s on the bench and available tonight? larue and jay? maybe colby?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
TG... maybe
Tyler Greene (hand) was unavailable to start Tuesday, but could be used in the field and possibly to hit, if needed.
“He’s a little more playable,” La Russa said, “so we’re a little less short.” Greene hasn’t played since Saturday due to a deep bruise in his right hand.
My two cents on the Outfield jam we have ...
Deal Ludwick after the season. Move Colby to RF and save his legs for at bats. Play Jay in CF if the front office thinks he is for real. I really like Ludwick but unless payroll is going up I would rather see him leave St. Louis than Pujols.
You fit into me
like a hook into an eye
a fish hook
an open eye
If Jay is for real, Ludwick is definitely gone.
Gonna want whatever Ludwick would’ve gotten going to The Macheen.
by jackhammerslam on Jul 20, 2010 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
orly?
.301 career line in minors says otherwise.
by jackhammerslam on Jul 20, 2010 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he mean's Jay's current performance isn't anywhere close to what he's going to be going forward
Not afraid to nitpick
I don't really believe that.
I don’t think he’s going to hit for .350+ but I could see .300-.310 with 15 HR power. If he develops even more power, awesome. And if we do move him to CF, those are great numbers for CF combined with some steals.
by jackhammerslam on Jul 20, 2010 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you not read what was originally suggested?
Colby to RF to keep his legs fresher and Jay in CF.
by jackhammerslam on Jul 20, 2010 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions
It's alright.
I hope you didn’t think I was demeaning you there either, I was just pointing it out.
by jackhammerslam on Jul 20, 2010 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Jon Jay will not hit .372 .417 .603
That’s what he’s saying. He won’t hit .372 .417 .603 in any one of those categories with 100% certainty.
Not afraid to nitpick
I know, I'm saying I don't think that either.
That’s why I had him at .300
by jackhammerslam on Jul 20, 2010 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions
So you're saying Jay's performance won't be anywhere close to what it's been so far...
Not afraid to nitpick
I think it's in the middle of his minor and major numbers right now.
This season, he can probably keep up what he’s doing. Next year .300.
by jackhammerslam on Jul 20, 2010 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
You think Jonathan Jay will finish the yaer with anything close to .372 .417 .603?
Because that’s what he’s been doing.
Not afraid to nitpick
If he keeps up the luck, yeah.
Would I be disappointed if it suddenly fell off? Uh, no.
by jackhammerslam on Jul 20, 2010 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you expect him to keep up being lucky, something completely out of his control?
Not afraid to nitpick
So
Just to clarify, if you are trying to project going forward whether Jon Jay will get absurdly lucky, you would not automatically project that he “should” have neutral luck?
Not afraid to nitpick
My head hurts worse than after I saw Inception now.
by jackhammerslam on Jul 20, 2010 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Put it this way
You flip head 10 times in a row, what are the odds you flip heads on the 11th try?
Not afraid to nitpick
Tails is due, surely?
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 21, 2010 6:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I've already sent
my life saving off to Vegas for a prop bet that says he will. It’s a lock.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
his career high minor league home run is 11
he did that in AA…. your saying he could hit 4 more than his career high MiLB number… im guessing he’s good for less than 10 homers in teh majors over 500 PAs
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions
oms?
what?
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Plenty of players surprise with power at the ML level.
Minors aren’t always a model of consistency.
by jackhammerslam on Jul 20, 2010 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
but at this point
you’re just guessing he magically improves his power…. ok there!
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Uh, I meant he's not nearly as good as his current major league slash line.
אנא טוני לא יותר ט.א.ס.ס
He is stockier than I imagined and looks like he might have some real pop.
You fit into me
like a hook into an eye
a fish hook
an open eye
too bad he doesn't
11 homers in AA is career high!!! im guessing that projects as less than 10 homers in the majors
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
as much as i like studwick
i just can’t see him sticking around if craig and/or jay is back next year. i’d rather see albert get the money that lud may have gotten.
Um... no.
Move Colby to RF and save his legs for at bats.
Part of the reason Colby is a potentially special player is b/c he’s a well-above average bat in a premium defensive position. Leave the guy in Cf until he can’t physically walk.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 21, 2010 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
wow
globe-democrat sports staff resigned en masse as of today. I’m not sure how many people that actually was, but I’d noticed the page was looking a little bare of late.
They all get jobs at the post or were they basically volunteers?
You fit into me
like a hook into an eye
a fish hook
an open eye
so we're done playing the reds for the season right?
too bad, I was thinking it would be cool to see Albert or Holliday hit an Isringhausen “fastball” a mile and a half
chief justice
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 20, 2010 7:23 PM EDT reply actions
That's physically impossible.
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
7920 ft.?
Rasmus hits that on pretty much every HR anyway….
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
(when he makes contact)
"Very accomplished bunter" - Rick Horton about Aaron Miles
by jd is legend on Jul 20, 2010 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions
We have 6 games left with them...I think...
We play them in August for sure
'Don't kiss an ass if its in the process of shitting on you.' - Best advice ever.
Who the hell is Luis Atilano
and why is he giving up 3-run homers to Votto in the first inning?!
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jul 20, 2010 7:32 PM EDT reply actions
tmrw?
Thought that meant ‘tomorrow’, but it don’t scan.
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jul 20, 2010 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Unless you mean, Strasburg is pitching tomorrow.
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jul 20, 2010 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Pedro Alvarez grand slam
'Don't kiss an ass if its in the process of shitting on you.' - Best advice ever.
They won 11-9
Not so dominant in the pitching category.
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jul 21, 2010 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions
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