Waino's Chance at the Cy
by JWO on Jul 18, 2010 4:37 AM EDT
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PrintWe've rounded the turn and our heading into the 2nd half of the season. The races are all in question, and the Redbirds are duking it out with the Redlegs to see who takes the Central this year. But I wanted to pause for a moment and look at some individual awards - specifically the Cy Young. As 2009 proved (to the Cardinals disappointment), wins aren't everything. But we've got enough good data right now to pick some front runners in the race, and ask ourselves this burning question: "Is this the year that Wainwright gets his Cy"?
Now, I'm not going to conduct a detailed analysis, given that we still have about 75 games left to play in this season. I am going to throw up the names of the top four front-runners and ask the audience who they think has the best shot at bringing this baby home. Beside each name, I will keep the stats simple: wins, ERA, and WHIP.
- Ubaldo Jimenez (CO) 15-1 Record, 1.05 WHIP, 2.20 ERA
- Josh Johnson (FL) 10-3 Record, 0.97 WHIP, 1.62 ERA
- Roy Halladay (PH) 10-7 Record, 1.05 WHIP, 2.19 ERA
- Adam Wainwright (StL) 14-5 Record, 1.00 WHIP, 2.02 ERA
I'm not going to bother with some of the other candidates, as I think they're too far behind or have some flaws. Clayton Kershaw, Mat Latos, Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum, and Chris Carpenter can't make up the ground in the available time. So, I admit to having no idea who wins, but I think it must come from the big four. Here's my anecdotal analysis.
A) Jimenez had the best early start to the season, and looked Gibson-esque in his dominance. He's the only man thus far to hit fifteen wins. And when he's been on his horse, he's been fabulous. That, and he pitches in Colorado, a hitter friendly ballpark. And he's had two complete games, one a no-hitter. Very respectable.
B) Johnson is a horse that no one outside Florida or perhaps the NL East knows. But he has ten wins, and leads the league in both ERA and WHIP. He was masterful in the All Star Game, and dominated the competition. One complete game this year, but he goes deep every time he throws.
C) Roy Halladay was the prohibitive favorite starting the year. People thought he would notch 30 wins and blow away National League competition (and to some extent he has). Great ERA and WHIP, SEVEN complete games, not to mention one perfecto. And if Johnson is a horse, this guy is a stallion.
D) And Wainwright falls right in the middle of this group. Chris Carpenter is playing a very strong but complementary second fiddle this year. Meanwhile, Waino is second in WHIP, ERA, and wins. Three complete games, and almost every outing strong.
My question for everyone is - does Wainwright somehow thread the needle in this year of the pitcher and take this award? His numbers are great. But will he come across as the solid choice, or will he just miss out somehow like last year?
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It really is a tough choice.
Will really test what the writers use to critique the Cy Young award winner. On one hand, you have the guy that is making headlines and has the most wins (Jimenez) while pitching in a hitter’s park, and on the other, you have a no-name ace (Johnson) who has absolutely great peripherals, but a weak record. Then you have 2 other guys who are a combination of the above.
For now, I would say that Jimenez has the lead, but i don’t think that lasts, and you will see one of the other 3 emerge.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
I don't see any stats by the names there
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 18, 2010 1:36 PM EDT reply actions
cy young will be a popularity contest, again
waino’s deserved it two years in a row now, but there is no chance he gets it. jimenez will.
probably
i thought carp was better performance-wise, but the injury cost him innings and the award, and i guess that was fair enough. i think he wins hands down if he doesn’t miss all those starts, evidenced by the fact he still finished a very close second. i thought waino deserved his third place, but still believe had he notched that 20th win he would have won it, just based on that alone – i wouldn’t agree with him winning by this rationale, but think he would have.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I didn't take the poll because it's too early, however,
I was just looking at the total numbers the other day and after awhile I decided that if the award were given today I’d give it to Adam Wainwright, just edging out Roy Halladay.
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
Yeah, it is way too early
half a season’s starts is a lot of starts. And when your ERA is in the 2’s, it just takes one six run start to make you look a lot worse than the other competitors.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Good news is that this year
Wainwirght is up their in Strike outs, though he has his work cut up for him to catch Halladay in IPs
i don't want him to catch halladay in IP
waino will seem a lot less nails when he’s having TJ surgery
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 19, 2010 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
i think waino will be able to take the win in leads
and win well over 20 games this year. i’m not sure ubaldo is as good a pitcher as his results have been and i don’t think the other two have a chance at 20 wins
i really think it’s a race between waino and halladay. johnson might be able to hang in there, but he’s never had a season like this, so i’m not sure he’s this for real yet
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
the lead in wins*
(i do drugs. learn from my mistakes, readers at home)
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jul 19, 2010 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
idk johnson has really FIP, 2.24
im not sure if he keeps it up, but he’s been really good
btw he has gotten no love on ESPN it seems, i haven’t heard any of the hype that came like it did with ubaldo and johnson has had a much better run
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 19, 2010 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions
But the Marlins aren't a very good team
The Cardinals should be a pretty good team going forward, so Waino will get some cheap wins.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 19, 2010 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions
ubaldo has a good chance to rack up the wins too
the rocks could get healthy and go on their patented second-half tear. they are 16-2 in games he started this year, and they haven’t even been that good yet due to injury.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
he's been insanely good
best in baseball thus far. not saying he’s getting luckiy or anything, i just wonder if he can keep it up all season. i have more faith in waino or halladay to do that.
i also don’t think it’s unrealistic for timmy to jump back into it. don’t think he can win the CYA, though
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
but the hype machine
is in love with Ubaldo. He’s their prohibitive favorite right now, and i can totally see the BBWAA saying this is his award to lose. However, how much will making the playoffs (or not) affect the voting? It seems like much more of the type of thing you would consider instead for MVP, but who knows how they’ll justify their biases?
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker on Jason Motte
Austin Wilson, please don't be a tease!
ubaldo is the favorite now
but with half a season to go he’ll have to keep it up to win the cy. any of the four could win it with this much season left.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Seems strange that he's the favorite, as he has highest ERA and lowest innings pitched of anyone in the group
by vivaelpujols on Jul 19, 2010 4:38 AM EDT up reply actions
you don't think he'd win it if it were awarded today?
he’s getting his first second-half start tonite.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
nope
it should go to johnson, probably would go to waino if they factor wins in (you know because ubaldo is behind him in every stat but wins, but he only leads wins by 1)
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 19, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
not who it SHOULD go to
who it WOULD go to. hey, i love ubaldo, but i am rooting for waino all the way. the man has surpassed every expectation i ever had for him. all the top guys have that work ethic to be the best, and it is admirable.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i did mention it probably would go to waino if it ended today
guess you missed that part….
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jul 20, 2010 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions
no, i didn't miss that
that’s the point – maybe it should go to waino, but it wouldn’t go to waino is what i said, if it ended today.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I don't know
Josh Johnson’s 2006 wasn’t far from this. He didn’t have the miniscule ERA, but I don’t think anyone’s expecting him to make a serious Gibson’s single season record this year, either.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
If Wainwright pitched
for the Mets, Braves or Phillies he would be a media darling right now….and would be hyped over Ubaldo for the award right now. But since he pitches for St. Louis he is mostly ignored and looked over. It’s sad but true. Never underestimate the national media’s total lack of attention when it comes to the Cardinals. Albert finally got some much deserved love from the media after Bonds retired/was injured and they just couldn’t ignore his career anymore even if it’s with the Cardinals. Adam is going to have to hit 20 wins before the likes of ESPN/East Coast media takes notice.
Boy a frosty cold Budweiser would be great about now"…long pause…then an "aahhh". --Mike Shannon
This is an old and tired excuse.
Roy Halladay is on the East Coast and isn’t the favorite, Ubaldo Jimenez is and he pitches in fucking Colorado for Pete’s sake! Not to mention that a kid from San Fran has won the last 2, Greinke won the AL award last year while pitching for a last place team, in theMidwest, in a town where virtually nobody watches baseball, and the fact that no pitcher from the NE part of the country has won a Cy Young since Clemens did it for the Yankees in 2001.
In the last two years, the Cardinals have been featured on Saturday and Sunday Night games of the week as much as any other NL team. Pujols has 3 MVP awards and has been runner up for 3 others. Hank Aaron had one, ONE, MVP season his entire career, so if anyone should be bitching about bias, it’s probably him.
If Josh Johnson pitched for anyone else but the Marlins, he’d be the favorite right now. His peripherals are SICK. I would actually give Wainwright the edge over him with the voting process BECAUSE he plays in St. Louis, not in spite of that.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
wow, aaron won one mvp
that’s a startling fact, but i guess there was quite a bit of competition. i’ll have to have a look out of curiosity and see who all was winning it in those years.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
There were probably 2 years where he truly got robbed:
1956: When 3 pitchers rounded out the top 4 and he finished 3rd.
1971: He was 3rd again behind Torre (Cardinals) and Stargell (Pirates) despite leading the league in OPS and being second in HR while posting a 191 OPS+.
The amazing thing is that he never finished second. Not once. Pretty amazing that one of the best players of all time won only one MVP and never finished second.
He finished 3rd six times, and was out of the top 5 in 16 of his 23 seasons. The thing about Hank is that he was really good for a really long time, but he just didn’t have that really awesome peak statistically. His best season was probably ’59 (you could make an argument for ’71), when he hit .355/.401/.636/1.037, but Ernie Banks hit 45 homers that year as a shortstop playing for the Cubs.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
how would you rate banks as a ss, defensively?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'd say he was a very good SS in his early career, and then moved off the position when he could no longer field it.
Total Zone, which is all we really have for players in prior eras, has him 58 runs above replacement as a SS from ‘53 – ’61, which was the last year he played SS part time. In his prime, he was an elite player at the SS position, and his four best offensive seasons (’57-’60) came as a SS.
He was clearly the best player in the league in both ’58 and ’59, as he turned in 9.7 WAR in ’58 and 10.0 WAR in ’59.
Pretty impressive. My mom’s uncle was a huge Cubs fan and used to tell us stories about how great Banks was going behind second base or deep in the hole behind third base and throwing guys out. He wasn’t ever Ozzie with the glove, but then, who is?
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
those are amazing WAR numbers
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
FWIW
Would you have voted for Albert in any of those season’s that he finished second to Bonds? Because if you would have, that kinda makes you a hypocrite.
We didn’t know anything about his steroid use back then, there were only some rumors, and those three seasons are some of the most ridiculous offensive seasons in the history of the sport. He was clearly more “valuable” to those Giants teams than Pujols was to the Cardinals at that time, who had three of the top 10 hitters in the NL.
Yet, despite all your supposed media hatred of everything Cardinals, Albert managed to finish 2nd in the voting in two of those seasons and third in another, despite the fact that Rolen and Edmonds were just as valuable in 2004 when he finished 3rd, and that Edmonds (7.2 WAR) was WAY more valuable to our club in 2002 when Pujols (5.8 WAR) finished 2nd.
I mean, come on dude — the numbers just don’t add up to what you’re saying.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I have a sneaky feeling Waino wins it this year
if for the only reason that he’s been on the BBWWWWAAAWWWAAAAs radar for a couple of years now. I think consistent performance (rather than just having one out-of-this world year, like Ubaldo) might just count for something for some voters. I don’t see Johnson winning it (although I suspect he will if his ERA stays under 2, which is, I guess, a possibility) but I think it’s terribly close between the other three.
Still bitching to contact.
that's why I give him the nod.
what you see this year is just like last year, a serious contender for the Cy Young.
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
by Dave Pendleton on Jul 19, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
too early to tell
I think Wainwright has a really good chance, unless Johnson just keeps up his unbelievable pace. if he keeps this up no one can beat him unless they just go with wins losses then he’s probably screwed.
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 19, 2010 12:22 PM EDT reply actions
Wainwright's chances
just took a small hit. I hope his team helps him all they can.
He just hit a bump in the road (not his team’s fault, much) but I expect him to be back on track.
But If the Cards don’t win the division, does it hurt his chances?
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
by Dave Pendleton on Jul 30, 2010 10:35 PM EDT reply actions
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