FanPost

Waino's Chance at the Cy

We've rounded the turn and our heading into the 2nd half of the season. The races are all in question, and the Redbirds are duking it out with the Redlegs to see who takes the Central this year. But I wanted to pause for a moment and look at some individual awards - specifically the Cy Young. As 2009 proved (to the Cardinals disappointment), wins aren't everything. But we've got enough good data right now to pick some front runners in the race, and ask ourselves this burning question: "Is this the year that Wainwright gets his Cy"?

Now, I'm not going to conduct a detailed analysis, given that we still have about 75 games left to play in this season. I am going to throw up the names of the top four front-runners and ask the audience who they think has the best shot at bringing this baby home. Beside each name, I will keep the stats simple: wins, ERA, and WHIP.

  • Ubaldo Jimenez (CO) 15-1 Record, 1.05 WHIP, 2.20 ERA
  • Josh Johnson (FL) 10-3 Record, 0.97 WHIP, 1.62 ERA
  • Roy Halladay (PH) 10-7 Record, 1.05 WHIP, 2.19 ERA
  • Adam Wainwright (StL) 14-5 Record, 1.00 WHIP, 2.02 ERA

I'm not going to bother with some of the other candidates, as I think they're too far behind or have some flaws. Clayton Kershaw, Mat Latos, Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum, and Chris Carpenter can't make up the ground in the available time. So, I admit to having no idea who wins, but I think it must come from the big four. Here's my anecdotal analysis.

A) Jimenez had the best early start to the season, and looked Gibson-esque in his dominance. He's the only man thus far to hit fifteen wins. And when he's been on his horse, he's been fabulous. That, and he pitches in Colorado, a hitter friendly ballpark. And he's had two complete games, one a no-hitter. Very respectable.

B) Johnson is a horse that no one outside Florida or perhaps the NL East knows. But he has ten wins, and leads the league in both ERA and WHIP. He was masterful in the All Star Game, and dominated the competition. One complete game this year, but he goes deep every time he throws.

C) Roy Halladay was the prohibitive favorite starting the year. People thought he would notch 30 wins and blow away National League competition (and to some extent he has). Great ERA and WHIP, SEVEN complete games, not to mention one perfecto. And if Johnson is a horse, this guy is a stallion.

D) And Wainwright falls right in the middle of this group. Chris Carpenter is playing a very strong but complementary second fiddle this year. Meanwhile, Waino is second in WHIP, ERA, and wins. Three complete games, and almost every outing strong.

My question for everyone is - does Wainwright somehow thread the needle in this year of the pitcher and take this award? His numbers are great. But will he come across as the solid choice, or will he just miss out somehow like last year?