Elias says to play Lopez
by bobohilario on Jul 15, 2010 4:12 PM EDT
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PrintI just saw the recent Elias rankings and Floppy is just above the line for Type A/Type B free agent. Since half of the stats used to rank free agents are counting stats, (PA, HR, RBI, Fielding Chances) the Cards would be well served to run him out there as often as possible.
If it gets to September and Lopez is tied with Freddy Sanchez in dingers (for example) is there and chance Mo tells Tony to start him instead of Skip for a couple days?
Is this all moot because we will never offer him arbitration any way, since he might take it?
Also, Trever Miller is right below the Type A/Type B line. This presents a great opportunity to game the system. Starts are worth more than relief appearances for relievers. If somehow the NL Central race is over by mid September, and we have a couple extra arms in the 'pen from September call-ups, why not let Miller start every other game. He could pitch one inning and then they bring in a starter. He could jump from Type B to Type A in a week. Has anyone ever done that?
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Lopez should be starting over skip anyway
I like that idea about Miller although I think it will be a tighter race than that. I would roll with Lopez at second and Boog at short and try to trade for pitching if we trade at all… this is of course assuming that Luddy and Freese make it back in a decent amount of time
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 15, 2010 5:06 PM EDT reply actions
I would rather have tyler greene at short and lopez at 2nd.
Unless we can get an upgrade at short. And I hope we bring in pitching. I’m pulling for a swap with the nationals for Guzman and a pitcher.
by rumors on Jul 15, 2010 5:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
let's see how boog does
I’d give him a big leash
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 16, 2010 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions
How good was he last year?
Oh. how I wish the shirt licker would regain to last year’s form. It would be like trading for a new SS.
I still believe in his boogness
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 16, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe Miller
has a vesting option that will likely kick in. Making his status this year somewhat of a moot point.
Felipe Lopez
is on a $1m contract. Why the hell wouldn’t we offer him arbitration?
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
That's the first thing I thought when I read this
However, Lopez can ask for any number he wants and the current year contract is only 1 consideration that the arbitrator can weigh. His earning potential is not restricted by his current contract but it would be part of the team’s argument if it got to a hearing.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
While it does not restrict how much...
we would pay him, it does establish the floor (not that it is relevant in this case). Something like 60 or 80 percent of the previous year’s salary is the floor for arbitration. This was BIG in not offering Looper and Glaus arby in past years.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on Jul 19, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
No doubt that it establishes a low floor
I just think it is irrelevant in this case. Lopez’ agent will surely ask for something in the 5 million + range. If the team counters with a super low offer they are sure to lose.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
him accepting arb would be awesome
considering his current contract. what’s worst case scenario for him accepting? $4MM?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
yes. this.
i’m actually currently pretty hopeful the cards keep him around next year. even at the high end of arby numbers, he’s still a value to the team
they could give him two years to avoid arb
then he’d be around after schu, as insurance for descalso (or other). what about 2/7 with some incentives?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
That sounds good
I was actually wondering THIS year when we signed him for so little whether giving him 2 years and $5 or 6m or so would’ve been better than just getting him super-cheap this year. In retrospect it kinda looks like it would.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 19, 2010 5:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Trevor Miller would mutiny
if we did that to him. Isn’t doing that, getting him Type A status, hurting his earning potential? Kinda of the Orlando Hudson mold? If he’s type A, but not worth a first round draft pick to other teams, he’ll either have to accept arbitration from the Cards, or start the year as a 38 year old LOOGY without a contract.
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker on Jason Motte
Austin Wilson, please don't be a tease!
It would be dumb with the option year
But you can imagine a scenario where it would make sense.
Say the Derosa deals didn’t happen last year and in a couple years McClellan come up for free agency on the border of a compensation level. The Cards know they won’t resign him since Boggs, Motte, Perez and Todd are all in the pen and younger/cheaper.
I’ve never heard of anyone trying to work the Elias system that way, but with relief pitchers especially, it’s ripe for gamesmanship.
i thought that's why the equation was kept under lock and key
it’s been reverse-engineered, true, but how precise is that?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'm not sure how precise the exact calculation is
but you don’t have to get the exact calculation — you just have to get the lists right.
Could Colby Rasmus hit a ball so hard that even he couldn't catch it?
by Cardinals645 on Jul 18, 2010 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, i guess that's true
as long as you know what factors in and how much each is weighted, more or less, i guess you could come pretty close to getting the order exactly right.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
TBH I think we probably ideally want Miller to remain a type B if we're not keeping him
if he’s a type A he’ll just accept arbitration, as no-one is going to give up a pick for a LOOGY. If he’s a type B he’s more likely to turn down arby and net us a supplemental. TBH, I think we should do this, and try to sign another LOOGY this winter. Miller has shown some signs of decline this year and LOOGYs are pretty fungible as a rule.
Lopez is more intriguing. We offer him arby in any case, but he’s actually more likely to accept if he’s a type A. Given our dearth of middle infield options, I think I see this as a good thing (although it would restrict what we could spend on Albert or signing a back-of-the-rotation pitcher). If he’s a type B, obviously still offer, if he accepts, great, and if someone else wants to blow him away with a big offer, we net the supplemental pick. Win-win. That deal we signed him to was absolute daylight robbery.
Still bitching to contact.
Herzog said he'd play Ryan.
Anybody else see that little blurb about a couple weeks ago? It was a real short thing (unless I missed the rest). I think Frank Cusamatto (spelling) was talking to Whitey and Whitey said he’d play Ryan every day. I thought it was a little unusual for him to say that but he did make it clear that he wasn’t trying to step on TLR. I would have liked to see te rest of that and hear the reasoning behind it.
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
it's because Ryan plays unbelievable defense and Herzog values defense highly
I think I would do the same
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 20, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Well,
yea, that’s obvious, but I want to know how he planned on carrying him.
I can almost guarantee he had more to say.
I found it interesting because I said the same thing awhile back here somewhere, so I was glad to hear it.
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
by Dave Pendleton on Jul 20, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
whitey is, after all, the guy who traded for ozzie when oz was something like a .220 hitter
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i'm sure his theory with Ryan is about the same...
he’ll save more runs that he’ll cost you.
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
by Dave Pendleton on Jul 21, 2010 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions
yep, and i agree
if our offense is going to roll, now we have more leeway for boog’s bat.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Whitey would probably also try to turn him into a switch hitter
This doesn’t surprise me at all. Whitey values defense more than just about anything else, and this ballpark plays a lot like the Busch II played when it had turf, although it’s not quite as pitcher friendly as that park was. He’s going to put the best defensive team on the field every day, which probably also means playing Greene at 3B (with Freese out) and Floppy at 2B. Even with Greene hitting 7th and Boog hitting 9th, they’re probably saving enough runs that we can afford to have an unproductive rear third of the lineup.
Whitey’s old school, and he’s ok with sacrificing one third of his offensive lineup to get speed and defense on the field.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
not sure that he'd try to
turn him into a switch hitter, although he might. I’ve thought about that too because the way he’s hitting there’s not much to lose, and it just may shake him up enough to set him right again as a righty….but it might do more harm than good. Personally, I wouldn’t do it.
But when whitey said that the team still wasn’t producing like it is now. I agree with him but of course, it’s less risky to play him every day if the rest of the team is hitting.
For the most part, Whitey’s teams had stellar defense, speed, switch hitters and singles & doubles hitters and maybe one big stick….and played small ball.
Playing Ryan every day on this team is way different. The mechanics of this team is way different. If Whitey played Ryan every day I’d like to see what else he’d do along with it.
What a difference a week made! Since the break, we’re seeing a different team.
Lopez is looking better all the time, the hitting is spreading out and there have been more zeros in the errors column. So, I’d have Lopez at 3rd (if I’m playing Ryan). Between Greene & Lopez, Lopez is the one that has to be in the lineup every day.
Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.
by Dave Pendleton on Jul 21, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
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