Alex Gonzalez, Cardinals Nation Turns Its Lonely Eyes to You
by tarakas on Jul 12, 2010 4:45 PM EDT
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The news reports the Cardinals might be interested in Blue Jay SS Alex Gonzalez. Should we be excited?
Gonzalez is 33 and is signed for $2.75 million this year with a $2.5 million team option.
This year Gonzalez has 17 home runs, but that is pretty much the extent of his offensive contribution, as shown by his .259/.296/.497 slash line. Essentially, his poor OB% negates much of the value of his power. Fangraphs has him as 4.9 runs above average with the bat and 3.1 runs above average with the glove for 2010.
Can we expect him to continue to produce at this rate? Well, if one expects him to hit something close to his career rate going forward, then no. For his career, he is a .248/.294/.402 hitter--Fangraphs has him as 128.1 runs below average with the bat over his career. If one wants to only go by his more recent performance, from 2006-2009 he was 33 runs below average with the bat. For his career, with the glove, he has been 21.5 runs above average, making him slightly above average over his 12-year career.
Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA predicted he would hit for a .241 True Average this year (near his career mark). Instead, he has produced a .274 True Average, which is the highest of his career and shatters his 90th percentile forecast of .264.
In short, Gonzalez’s first half hitting in 2010 is not only not very good, it far exceeds his career norms and the wildest predictions of his offensive ceiling. If he regresses at all to career norms during the second half, he will be a poor hitting, average defensive shortstop.
That said, he might be an improvement over the 2010 version of Brendan Ryan, which probably says more about Ryan’s performance than it does Gonzalez.
Two Closing Notes:
1. Gonzalez’s 2010 line of .259/.296/.497 is fairly close to Khalil Greene’s 2007 (the one when he hit 27 home runs) line of .254/.291/.468.
2. While Jose Bautista is not mentioned in the article, I would suppose he is a Blue Jay who might be traded and would fill in at third and could chip in as an OF. He is 4 years younger than Gonzalez. While he also is having a fluky year with the bat (.237/.361/.543), for his career he has been a significantly better hitter (.238/.334/.421) than Gonzalez, with more walks and power. While his .308 True Average is also above his 90th percentile forecast of .295, the weighted mean of his forecasts is .273, or essentially what Gonzalez has produced this year, meaning Bautista’s expected performance with the bat entering the season is as good as Gonzalez’s fluky season. In short, Bautista is likely to be much more productive during the second half of 2010 than Gonzalez is. He is not much of a fielder. Whether he would be an improvement over Freese is open to debate, given Freese’s injury and lack of a proven track record.
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Pass.
Why the hell would the front office want a guy with a .296 OBP. Ryan is walking at a higher rate, 8.2% to 4.9%, and striking out at a lower percent, 17.1% to 19.8%. Boog has been insanely unlucky this season according to BABIP.
On top of that, Gonzalez has not appeared in more than 112 games in any of the last three seasons. Also, there is a negligible difference as far as fielding goes. UZR thus far shows Gonzo at 3.1 while Ryan is at 3.0.
Like I said, I’ll pass
Baseball makes the world go 'round, or at least in my world it does.
by Whiteyballer on Jul 12, 2010 7:24 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Honestly...
Playing Ryan may be the best option that’s out there. We can’t trade for a guy like Tulowitzki or something, there just are not players available who would be clear upgrades. At this point it looks like the Cardinals are going to struggle for years trying to escape the offensive black holes at SS, 2B, and C. Even if the players they have now have their best-case scenarios offensively, they are still a weak hitting group, and when they all slump like this season it is catastrophic.
as far as I know the Cards don't have a better option than Boog
his low BABIP indicates that he has been a little unlucky with the bat so he should improve. I definitely don’t expect much out of him at the plate, but I do expect that he’ll do better defensively and won’t rush the plays so much
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 14, 2010 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
BABIP Luck?
On this site I see many people allude to the face that Brendan Ryan is likely to improve due to his abnormally low BABIP (.225). They say he has hit in bad luck and this is due to turn around. I have two concerns about this assumption:
1. Well, while a downturn in BABIP can represent bad luck, such assumption assumes nothing else has changed. For example, a player who has a high BABIP due to being a fast runner out of the box and down to first relies on that. An injury robbing him of that speed will drop his BABIP.
I’m worried that Ryan is, according to numerous sources and his own admission, lost at the plate. I’d think a poor approach at the plate could drive his BABIP well below his career and MLB norms. In this case, his BABIP may not be expected to turn around. The increase in his fly ball percentage from 29.6% to 35% is likely part of his problem.
2. What should his BABIP be? In 2009 it was .332. However, this was the highest BABIP in any season he had more than 50 plate appearances at a level. In 2007 in AAA, with minor league fielders and playing conditions, his BABIP was .306. In 2008 in the majors, it was .289. Thus his BABIP in 2009 was likely much higher than one could reasonably expect. In short, last year’s numbers may have been inflated by an unsustainable BABIP.
I think he may be having some bad luck, but I also think much of the drop of his BABIP from last season is because he was very lucky last season.
well it is quite low
and yes, it’s not all luck, but my feeling is he will at least get a little better at the plate. and hopefully mentally he will get it together defensively. if not, tyler greene is not a bad option, just as good or better than alex gonzalez imo
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 14, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Okay, but a BABIP of .225 is incredibly unlucky
I mean, yeah, hitters have a decent amount of control over BABIP, but .225 is so far below the norm, that’s it’s almost a given he’s been getting unlucky. Last year he probably did get lucky.
Even the worst hitters have BABIPs in the .270 range, and Boog is pretty fast and generally hits line drives, so his should be at least .300.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 14, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
if not for a couple of bum calls by umpires
he’d be tied for the team lead in steals. and that’s with his awful OBP.
bad luck, man.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
This would be a really stupid deal
Unless we were somehow able to convince the Blue Jays to take back Kyle Lohse or something.
We could probably let Tyler Greene take every AB at SS the rest of the season and be better off with him than Gonzalez — I highly doubt he keeps up his power numbers in the second half considering that’s he’s never hit more than 23 homers in his career.
If I was Toronto, I’d be shopping him too, considering that his trade value will never be higher and the fact that Dayton Moore is still a GM. If Jack Z can talk him into trading for Yuniesky Betancourt, surely someone can convince him that Alex Gonzalez is a good buy.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I'd rather have Boog
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 12, 2010 11:42 PM EDT reply actions
you forgot the unicorn!
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker on Jason Motte
Austin Wilson, please don't be a tease!
I don't particularly want him,
but I think the Cardinals could trade for him for a variety of reasons. I think it is likely enough I took the time to write this piece.
They want to upgrade their middle infield, and:
1. There are not many middle infielders on the block
2. He is available
3. He is over 30 and has 12 years of experience in the bigs, so he should fulfill Larussa’s preference for veterans
4. His salary is cheap, with a cheap option for next year
5. The Blue Jays probably don’t want much for him
6. Mo found the similarly hacktastic low OBP, HR pop of Khalil Greene acceptable on the trade market before.
Quite frankly, Mo is under pressure to do something, and if he can come back to Tony/ownership/the press/the fans and say “I picked up a veteran SS who is among the league leaders in HR and it didn’t cost much in terms of prospects and lets me maintain payroll flexibility,” well, that has to be tempting to him. Quite frankly, Ryan has set the bar low enough it is hard for Mo to lose this trade in the short term.
Oh, and if
the cost for Gonzalez is only Ryan, I think it becomes more likely.
Ryan may have lost Tony’s confidence, and if so is unlikely to get the at bats to play out of his current funk. If so, he needs to a change of scenery and has little value to the team and in trade. If the Jays accept him for Gonzalez, Mo may see it as “something for nothing.” It lets him pick up a bat without moving a prospect, or moving anyone his manager will even use.
I’m not arguing for the trade, but I think it is pretty plausible.
One would hope that our GM would have learned something from the Khalil Greene trade.
Especially since one of the guys in that trade would look really good in our bullpen right now and would have helped our bullpen last year.
All this stuff is true, but there’s one key point that seems to be missing among the six:
He’s not really an upgrade over what we already have
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Upgrade? Well, it depends
Larussa may have decided he is weary of Ryan’s Mario Mendoza impression with the bat and his errors at crucial moments of games. At this point, Tony may have decided he is largely done with Ryan, or at least is done with him until he turns things around. Without playing time, he is unlikely to.
I can only pretend to understand the Cardinals clubhouse, but I’m guessing it is a very difficult place for a young player who Larussa is frustrated with.
If this is the case, and Tony doesn’t want to use him, Ryan basically has little value to the club. Gonzalez has more value than the roster dead space of someone Larussa does not have confidence in. So Gonzalez would be an upgrade in this scenario. Acquiring him also represents “doing something,” and I would not discount that.
Also, we don’t know how much Mo and Larussa look at various statistics. Khalil Greene scared the heck out of me, and I posted so at the time, as every number he had was trending towards oblivion, but we got him anyway. Traditional fans, and some reporters and owners, would look at Ryan’s and Gonzalez’s stats and tell you the guy hitting .259 with 17 homers is better than the guy hitting .194 with 2 HR. And if you looked at older defnesive stats like fielding percentage or range factor, Ryan doesn’t stand out as superior defensively.
I wonder what Larussa thinks of Gonzalez. His impression of him is probably crucial.
We Have a Younger Version of Gonzalez...
…in Greene; on the udder hand, we MIGHT trade Boog and a prospect away for a pitcher, sayyyyy….. Brett Cecil? i doubt we cud get Romero but he’d be my first choice. Boog and Jones for Cecil?
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
to get a young, defensive SS
and a prospect, and not give up Romero or Morrow to do it.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Because we would give them Kyle Lohse!
I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons
NTCs be damned!
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker on Jason Motte
Austin Wilson, please don't be a tease!
There's no way in hell we'd get Brett Cecil for Boog and any prospect not named Shelby Miller.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Ryan is 28
far from a youngster in the clubhouse (b. 3/26/82). He had over two years of service time in the majors heading into this year.
I personally would keep Ryan instead of selling low. He is out of options and probably wouldn’t make it through waivers. He will be arbitration eligible during the off season. I think the surgery has had more of an impact on him than expected.
So we should trade for a crappy 33 year old SS because Tony doesn't "like" Brendan Ryan?
Why should we give up talent to get a guy who’s only an upgrade because the manager will play him?
Tyler Greene is probably the exact same player as Gonzalez going forward. He has his spastic moments, but he’s a good athlete who can play great defense and hit a few homers while not walking much.
If we’re giving up talent, let’s get someone who isn’t projected to be replacement level for the rest of the season. Greene and Boog have as good a chance of being above replacement level as Gonzalez does, imo.
Comparing this to the Khalil Greene trade doesn’t make sense. We traded for Greene thinking that a change of scenery might turn him back into the player he was his rookie year in San Diego. The thought being the moving him out of PetCo might help him improve his offensive game. It didn’t happen. Gonzalez is 33 years old and is in a better offensive park than Busch already, and we’d be trading for him hoping that he can repeat what he did in the first half, rather than hoping he can improve on a putrid season.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
FWIW -- making moves just to make a move
is a recipe for disaster. This rarely ever turns out well.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I agree.
But I wonder how much pressure Mo is under to make a move. I’d guess Tony is lobbying for more veterans.
I would not trade Ryan for Gonzalez, but quite frankly, from Mo’s standpoint, it could work out. In the AL East and facing Tampa, Boston and NY regularly, Ryan could go right on hitting .190. Even if Gonzalez goes back to his career averages, he’s going to beat that. And even if Ryan suddenly finds himself, Mo can say that he needed a change of scenery and would not have done that had he stayed.
Ryan’s not a young Yount or Ripken. The odds of getting horribly burned moving him are pretty low. He may well be one of those guys who is out of baseball at 30.
As an armchair GM, I’d never make this deal. As a real life GM who has to keep a boss, manager, fanbase, and press happy, I’m guessing it is a lot more complicated
I wonder what the coaches and manager are telling Mo about Ryan. That would be awfully important.
Don't get me wrong
I don’t want us to trade for Gonzalez. I’ve never argued for it. I think Gonzalez is lousy and don’t want him on the team. I’m just speculating as to why Mo might make such a trade. I’m trying to look at it from Mo’s point of view.
If Larussa doesn’t like Ryan, Mo has a real problem. Mo gives Larussa the 25-man roster, and Larussa can do what he wants with it. He can bury Ryan and never give him an at bat again, he can pinch hit him in game situations just to illustrate his shortcomings, and he can grind him down with negative comments in the clubhouse and in the press with impunity. Short of firing Larussa, which I doubt Mo can do, Mo can do little about how Larussa handles Ryan, and Larussa can things that lower Ryan’s value to the team and on the market every day.
If Larussa has decided Ryan is not his starting SS and never will be, then he isn’t. So whether Larussa “likes” Ryan is highly relevant. If Larussa has no use for Ryan, Mo needs to move him and add a part that Larussa will use.
I suppose no one thinks we could nab Dan Uggla
I dare say that his .852 would be transformitive at 2B, and we could start Lopez at SS once Freese returns.
But … it looks like the Front Office is focusing on a fifth pitcher, he’s a bit dear, and it’s not clear that the Fish would part with him.
So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)
Uggla would be nice but I'm not sure we have the trade firepower to land him
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 13, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not willing to give up Shelby Miller for Dan Uggla
and I fear that’s what it would take. As you can see here, the Fish have a huge need for high upside arms in their system — they don’t really have any to speak of right now.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Ehh, Lopez would almost be Lugo-ian at SS
He’s not very good there. Also, the Marlins demanded Madison Bumgarner for Uggla, so they value him highly, and our equivalent would be Shelby Miller. There is no deal here unfortunately.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
I think that if you are looking for a SS
There are only 2 decent options. Yunel Escobar, who is having a down year, and is unlikely to be traded, or Stephen Drew (Although, a few of his numbers scare me), who would be my choice personally.
Gonzalez would be a bad idea, and I sure hope Mo is looking past his HR’s, as well as looking more into Ryan’s unlucky performance.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
I would like Yunel because he is having a down year
by vivaelpujols on Jul 13, 2010 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
They look like they could (and would) use Jay or Craig
by Merry CRasmus on Jul 13, 2010 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Get it done, Mo!
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker on Jason Motte
Austin Wilson, please don't be a tease!
Looks like the Jays and Braves
found each other
by Merry CRasmus on Jul 14, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
How did that trade happen?
Did Anthropolous get Wren drunk and convince him it was for their fantasy league?
"I got to get Dr. Freeze off my twig right now."-Nyjer Morgan
by flipthebird15 on Jul 14, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Escobar seems like he is probably injured,
but he is still a better hitter than Boog and could be our SS for at least a few seasons.
I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons
i would rather go after Stephen Drew.
He would probably cost more than Escobar, but I think he is better. Idk what it would it take to him. my guess would be they would ask for miller. But might settle for a package of jay/craig, sanchez, salas/boggs
by rumors on Jul 14, 2010 12:31 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Now that this speculation is over...
I would like to say, for the record, that my eyes were never lonely enough to want Alex Gonzalez on this team.
"When I gave up a grand slam to Pete LaCock," Bob Gibson said later, "I knew it was time to quit."
Escobar to jays- gonzalez to braves
Now both of them are off the market. I’d still take Drew.
by rumors on Jul 14, 2010 12:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Escobar to jays- gonzalez to braves
Now both of them are off the market. I’d still take Drew.
by rumors on Jul 14, 2010 12:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Escobar to jays- gonzalez to braves
Now both of them are off the market. I’d still take Drew.
by rumors on Jul 14, 2010 12:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You might be on to something...
in the sense that when you actually say that line out loud three times and use Pro Tools to provide a beat, it sounds like an incredibly weak hip-hop lyric.
"When I gave up a grand slam to Pete LaCock," Bob Gibson said later, "I knew it was time to quit."
by The Classical on Jul 14, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
but 'e didn't say it into a mirror in the dark.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
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