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Around SBN: Devils Beat Rangers, Head To Stanley Cup Finals

New Bench vs. Old Bench

Old: Aaron Miles, Randy Winn, Jason LaRue, Nick Stavinoha, Felipe Lopez

New: Joe Mather, Jon Jay, Bryan Anderson, Allen Craig, Tyler Greene

TLR has decided to go with PT veterans rather than with less-experienced MiLBers. The idea is that the veteran-types are better suited for situations (PH; late inning defense), while the youngsters are better served playing every day in Memphis. Do the stats confirm Tony's thesis?

Star-divide

Here are the stats. For the veteran players, I have included career numbers and projections. For minor leaguers I have included ML equivalents based on their Memphis stats, plus their StL stats. To calculate wOBA for the Memphis group, I used the formula: (1.75*OBP+SLG)/3. All stats are from minorleaguesplits.com and fangraphs.

Name

Year

wOBA

TZ

TZ

TZ

Stavinoha

STL

.329

career

.257

(5)

projection

.324

Craig

MLEq

.269

STL

.086

Memphis

.331

0 in OF

(1) at 1B

(.5) at 3B

Name

Year

wOBA

TZ

TZ

TZ

Miles

3 Abs

.299

career

.298

(9) at SS

19 at 2B

1 at 3B

projection

.264

T Greene

MLEq

.344

STL

.308

Memphis

.404

(.5) at SS

1 at 3B

Name

Year

wOBA

TZ

TZ

TZ

Lopez

2010

.355

career

.326

(46) at SS

4 at 2B

5 at 3B

projection

.326

Mather

MLEq

.292

STL

.219

Memphis

.345

(4.5) in RF

Name

Year

wOBA

TZ

TZ

TZ

LaRue

2010

.282

career

.309

12

projection

.291

Anderson

MLEq

.279

STL

.310

Memphis

.331

(0.5)

Name

Year

wOBA

TZ

TZ

TZ

Winn

2010

.274

career

.334

24 at LF

2 at CF

29 at RF

projection

.299

Jay

MLEq

.353

StL

.325

Memphis

.426

5.5 at LF

6 at CF

0 at RF

Some quick observations:

1. Tyler Greene is a significant upgrade over Aaron Miles both offensively and defensively. (Duh!)

2. Randy Winn could be a significant defensive upgrade, but Jon Jay's offense balances out Winn's superior defense.

3. Stavinoha, Craig, and Mather all appear to be the same player.

FWIW: My bench would be Greene, Jay, Winn, LaRue, and Lopez. Sorry, Allen Craig.

Discuss.

Poll
Which bench do you prefer?
Old (Miles, Winn, LaRue, Stavinoha, Lopez)
10 votes
New (Greene, Jay, Anderson, Craig, Mather)
21 votes
Other (specify in comment)
12 votes

43 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 43 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Comments

Display:

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Winn, LaRue, Lopez, Craig, Mather

Albert's grand slam, 7/3/09
@zoomzoomj88
Boog's stache is back!
Aaron Miles, Tony? Really?

by zoomzoomj88 on Jun 6, 2010 6:41 PM EDT reply actions  

i don't mind winn at all

but as for #2, i disagree he is a defensive upgrade over jay. and i wholeheartedly disagree with #3 – not sure you could find three distinctly more different players (well, of course you could, but you get my point)

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Jun 6, 2010 7:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed.

Regression, bitches.

by spants on Jun 6, 2010 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Jun 7, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lopez, Greene, LaRue, Jay, Mather

by cdc81 on Jun 7, 2010 12:10 AM EDT reply actions  

Combo

Tyler Greene (he’s my favorite Cardinals “prospect”), Winn, LaRue, Lopez, i don’t care whether its Stavinoha or Jay……. (Stav has “power” (im going to use that term pretty loosely) and Jay has left-handedness

Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog

by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 7, 2010 12:30 AM EDT reply actions  

I think Jay is probably better defensively than Winn

I’d like to see a bench of Greene, Larue, and Jay. I think it is a tossup between Winn and Mather. Lopez is obvious, although I think he’s practically a starter rather than a bench player. nice fanpost!

I'll leave this to Lao Tzu

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 7, 2010 1:15 AM EDT reply actions  

Winn, LaRue, Craig, Greene, Lopez

If Winn sucks I’d be fine with having Jay up instead. I don’t think Stav in for Craig is the world’s greatest crime, although Craig is better, there’s an argument that it’s in his benefit to get some AAA at-bats.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 7, 2010 6:07 AM EDT reply actions  

i'll go with your bench

but if winn sucks i’d pull up mather over jay – in one sense mather is better suited to spell colby due to handedness, and in another that would leave us without a pure lefty bat on the bench. on the other hand, i’d rather see mather playing regularly, getting in form, as he has considerably more upside than jay, imo.

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Jun 7, 2010 6:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

I dunno about Mather

I really like him but he’s been so poor this year and hasn’t hit now since he injured his wrist. I just wonder if he’s ever going to get it back (and, realistically, if he’s not hitting, his defence isn’t good enough to warrant him above Jay, handedness or otherwise IMO). He’d be the ideal RF replacement for Ludwick if they let him walk so I wonder if it’s a better idea to leave him in AAA and see if he can find some form again in a lower pressure environment.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 7, 2010 6:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, i'd go with that

but i don’t think winn will suck anyway, depending on what everyone is expecting of him. he’s always been a ballplayer, doesn’t do boneheaded things in the field or on the bases. i don’t follow the yanks, but it appears they preferred marcus markley thames to winn, and i’m not sure i would for our situation. so it doesn’t really put a stigma on winn for me, the fact the yanks released him.

as for mather, i’m hoping for the best. after similar wrist issues, it wasn’t until a year older than mather is now that werth really began to find his stride again. i’d guess he has some time allotted him by the org.

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Jun 7, 2010 7:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think this is Winn's last chance, really, at 36

we’ve seen productive guys at that sort of age (Giles, Durham, Grudz, Kenny Lofton) drummed out of baseball in the last few years based on relatively short-term struggles and/or not finding a team to fit in at.

So I think he’ll be trying extra hard to do OK for us.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 7, 2010 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

FWIW

I would kinda prefer Thames because he still has a bat of some. He’s probably a bit better than Stavinoha in that “primary pinch hitter who doesn’t play the field” role.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 7, 2010 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why is Nick Stavinoha "old" and Joe Mather "new"?

They are essentially the same age, came up to the bigs in the same year (Mather had more PAs in 2008), and have almost exactly the same number of ML PAs in total.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Jun 7, 2010 10:57 AM EDT reply actions  

Stav gets grouped with the present lineup

Mather with the guys who aren’t here.

My poor attempt at a joke :)

"They're so stunned they didn't even boo!"
John Rooney 5/3/10 referring to Philly fans on Cards 5-run 7th inning

by gocards62 on Jun 7, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who's the backup catcher

if LaRue isn’t on the bench?

Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.

by Dave Pendleton on Jun 7, 2010 11:07 AM EDT reply actions  

"3. Stavinoha, Craig, and Mather all appear to be the same player."

Prime example that sometimes statistics lie.

If I had to predict 2 years from now Stav will not be a Cardinal, Mather MIGHT be 4th or 5th outfielder, and Allen Craig will be starting.

Gamethreads suck.

by stltrav09 on Jun 7, 2010 12:29 PM EDT reply actions  

"There are lies, damn lies, and statistics" --Mark Twain

“Appear” is the operative word. Craig and Mather obviously didn’t show TLR enough to merit staying. Right or wrong, Tony wants younger players to play everyday. He wants veterans (Stav is a stretch here) to be part-timers.

"They're so stunned they didn't even boo!"
John Rooney 5/3/10 referring to Philly fans on Cards 5-run 7th inning

by gocards62 on Jun 7, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree.
Tony wants younger players to play everyday.

Looking at position players on the current roster. Colby Rasmus was brought up as a part-time player last season. Ludwick started out as a part-time outfielder. Skip started out as a part-time outfielder. Yadi started out as a part-time catcher.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Jun 7, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

from the man himself

Jay did little wrong

Craig: needs more playing time

Maybe it’s just this group that TLR feels needs to play everyday, but he’s consistently said that Jay, Craig, and Mather all need to play every day.

"They're so stunned they didn't even boo!"
John Rooney 5/3/10 referring to Philly fans on Cards 5-run 7th inning

by gocards62 on Jun 7, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not to suggest that TLR is anything but forthright...

…but I wouldn’t put it past him to say the “right” things, despite potentially believing something else.

That belief being something along the lines of “Damn it, I MAY have to play Colby, Freese, and Garcia, but those other youngsters need to get the HELL OF MY LAWN..er, BENCH!”

by dronemc on Jun 7, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Colby wasn't going to be a part-timer.....

Until he hit for crap against lefties, and overall, really, pretty much every month but June.

by SoonerfanTU on Jun 8, 2010 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Doesn't matter.....

We’re not talking about next year, or two years from now. Hell, we aren’t even talking about later this season. We’re talking about RIGHT NOW. And RIGHT NOW, there ain’t much of a difference.

by SoonerfanTU on Jun 8, 2010 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

going forward

I would much rather bet on Craig or Mather than Staver

I'll leave this to Lao Tzu

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 8, 2010 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'l love to see a community projection

On Miles, and maybe even Winn. Suppan too here in a few weeks, I’m sure.

I can see the Winn pickup actually – can easily make a case that it is worth a shot, even though there’s a good chance it won’t work out. But can’t find any good reason for the Miles pickup.

I’d think that the concensus would probably have Miles somewhere around .220/.260/.300. I’d also probably take the under on it.

by Merry CRasmus on Jun 7, 2010 6:53 PM EDT reply actions  

i don't think you have the appropriate level of pessimism in your slash line for miles

i’d bet a community projection would look more like .180/.220/.260, and that’d be on a cheery calm day during a winning streak.

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Jun 7, 2010 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's probably about where I put him

But then I thought maybe I’m tending to run a little more negative than the average guy. Maybe not though! No matter how low the community rates him, there is potential for the guy to underachieve it, just based off the last year and a half. We’re talking about an unbelievable floor here, without the upside of course.

by Merry CRasmus on Jun 7, 2010 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

careful, that's not a floor, it's a trap (door)

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Jun 7, 2010 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Winn has upside

and he wasn’t far off being an average player last year in any case.

Miles has zero upside and isn’t even REPLACEMENT level across his entire career to date.

I think there’s a pretty big difference between the two, FWIW.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2010 7:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was trying to make a contrast there

I’m ok with seeing if Winn has anything left in the tank. He’s had a nice career, and isn’t far removed from productive play. Still, I’d like to see what the communtity projects from him..

by Merry CRasmus on Jun 8, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

FWIW

I think .220/.260/.300 is probably a little pessimistic on Miles. That said, he’s a long way below replacement level if he hits even THAT line and is a mediocre 2B. Tyler Greene can OBP .260 in his sleep and has a lot more power and a better glove.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2010 7:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure it is pessimistic

I’m expecting worse. His pitiful performances the last couple years, coupled with his age, invite the possibility/likelihood that his marginal skillset is shot. Even at his best he never drew walks (career gap between BA and OBP is 4%, career high is 6.1%), and never showed power (career ISO is .074, career high is .084).

He’s always been completely BA dependent, and he’s now invited the possibility of just about anything there.

by Merry CRasmus on Jun 8, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tyler Greene can OBP .260 in his sleep

Based on what? He’s barely done it during his ML time, and some of that was getting a considerable number of starts. What in the world makes you think he’d be better in a full-time bench role?

by SoonerfanTU on Jun 8, 2010 9:34 AM EDT reply actions  

.406 obp in memphis this year, .369 last year

.274 in mlb career with an unlucky .281 babip despite 19% ld rate.

so… you think he can’t obp .260 in mlb?

you are little more than a troll.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 8, 2010 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions   3 recs

What about Hamilton???

Lopez- 5 starts a week at 2b/ss/3b- be unnec. 5th of
LaRue- catch every other sunday/ look cool
Greene- 1 start a week in IF- “leadoff PH”- primary PR/def sub for skip late innings.
WInn- Play one day a week at each OF pos
Hamilton.- give pujos a day off every other week or so, power lefty bat off bench

A little crowded in the infield, but considering the 3 starting outfielders should play almost everyday and winn can play all three positions, a 5th OF seems redundant. Lopez or skip could play a game or two if nec. Hamilton is obviously blocked, but should be a better power option off the bench than stav, plus he gives TLR a chess peice to force other team to bring in LOOGY. If he plays well he could be decent trade bait if he could be sold as a would be a starter if not for Pujols. Jay is probably better all around than winn, but he could very well be the starting RF next year if Ludwick is traded and letting him play everyday will be better for his development.. Tyler Greene will be a little underused, but will be a good PH to start off innings, and could be brought in to run and be a defensive sub for TLR crazy double switches. If he does well, he and ryan could switch roles, or each could play about half and half.

by I miss Jack Buck on Jun 8, 2010 12:44 PM EDT reply actions  

If Hamilton were Matt Stairs. . .

he’d be on the bench playing the role you’ve outlined. Since he falls into the category of “young & inexperienced,” Tony appears to prefer to have him playing everyday.

Bgh, you may fire when ready.

"They're so stunned they didn't even boo!"
John Rooney 5/3/10 referring to Philly fans on Cards 5-run 7th inning

by gocards62 on Jun 8, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

bench??

isn’t that where able players receive ample rest?? we can’t have one or the other, the bench has to be more diversified than the starters. miles, winn, stavinoha, larue, craig, and greene. It’s the perfect balance of experience and versatility. while i can argue that jay deserved a spot over winn, i can also empathize with MO’s worries. an apt bench can make a feeble bullpen look 3 times better. stavinoha is becoming a sweeney-like PH option and, honestly, i think he relishes that. any atherbench spots should be occupied by players who can man multiple positions. whether they are defensive stalwharts or situational bats. our bench is the least of our concerns. the rotation needs addressing. and if the powers that be want to deflect the issue? more power to them.

"Red means go!"

by shoomull77 on Jun 12, 2010 2:02 AM EDT reply actions  

No offense, but

I can’t make total sense of this, partly because of the punctuation and partly because of what you,re saying.

we can’t have one or the other, the bench has to be more diversified than the starters.

We can’t have one or the other? Of what?
stavinoha is becoming a sweeney-like PH option

I don’t understand that either, maybe it’s just me.
miles, winn, stavinoha, larue, craig, and greene. It’s the perfect balance of experience and versatility.

any atherbench spots should be occupied by players who can man multiple positions. whether they are defensive stalwharts or situational bats.

our bench is the least of our concerns. the rotation needs addressing.

Again, no offense, but, are these meant to be independent sentences or should they be separated by commas?
If they are independent sentences then I don’t understand it.
If they are separated by commas, then I just disagree with most of it.

I disagree that the rotation is a bigger concern than the bench, if that’s what you’re saying. They’re equal at best, in my opinion. I have more confidence in the rotation than I do the bench.
There have been more quality starts than quality at bats. The pitching has been pretty good, despite the spotty and sometimes lack of hitting…..and spotty defense.
The lineup has been tinkered with more than the rotation, it’s been a bigger problem.
With more hitting and better defense, the pitching would be even better than it is already and some of the youngsters would fare a little better.
What troubles you the most about the rotation, as it stands today? Is it the loss of Penny and Lohse, is it somehow Carp, Waino or Garcia that you worry about, or is it who is filling the vacant slots, or what?

Just my opinion, but, in order, here’s what I see as the most concerning:
1) Hitting…the lack of it in key spots…Holliday
2) Hitting…Albert has not been Albert at all lately
3) Hitting…the little guys, not what we expected, Schumacker, Ryan. Schu has gotten a little better with the stick but Ryan has been slow to produce. (glad about his homer).
4) Defense…Shu, Lopez….sometimes Ryan. Ryan can dazzle at times, Shu was better last year and Lopez is just filler.
5) The bench…can they hit?
6) The bullpen…Frankiln, Reyes, & Mott have been pretty good, eh? (Reyes doesn’t get enough credit).
7) The rotation…The hitting and defense has let down the pitching more than vice versa.

Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.

by Dave Pendleton on Jun 12, 2010 4:39 PM EDT reply actions  

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