adam and adam
by tom s. on Jun 5, 2010 8:00 AM EDT
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Printit's been a good week, all in all, in cardinal nation. we went two for three against our temporary divisional nemesis, cincinnati. we stopped losing a starting pitcher every third day to injury. several players broke out of slumps lasting much of the month of may. last night, adam wainwright pitched his first ever complete game shutout, taking another step in his campaign to become chris carpenter, jr., since chris eats complete-game-shutout-o's for breakfast (13 CGSOs in his career). david freese continues to make rookie of the year look like an outside possibility.colby stays smooth. ryan ludwick spent so much time flying around the bases that he almost ran out of his shirt. last night, the cubs and reds both lost as well, the latter's loss bumping the cards into an uncontested first place.
the apparent gray cloud this week for the site was the sudden appearance of aaron miles at the ballgame, in a team uniform, no less. while i can't say i'm pleased, i will say that it could (and has) been worse - both matt pagnozzi and nick stavinoha have been unwelcome surprises in cardinal uniforms. aaron miles has a fairly long track record of being basically replacement value. i find it hard to look at 2009 and say that's his true talent going forward for the same reason i don't think his true talent resembles his 2008 performance. i surmise he will be same old aaron miles. i hope he doesn't spend a lot of time in the field or start any games. and, of course, i would rather see tyler greene (who is really knocking on the door) or allen craig.
while i admit the promotion of miles is a bad baseball decision, i also don't think it is as terrible as some are making it out to be. perhaps a thoughtful member of the front office could put a bug in tony's ear about having miles coach in batavia or something. miles seems like a nice guy, and i'd like to see something nice happen for him.
about a month ago, we took a look at the cardinals and the statistical story underlying their hitting. some things have changed - now the cards are no longer unlucky, with a team BABIP of .310, fourth in the majors, though likely not particularly lucky, as they have a line drive rate of 19.5%, eighth in the majors.
more concerning than any luck issues was the apparent team-wide approach at the plate. i am proud to announce that we have dropped from swinging at the highest percentage of pitches in the majors to merely the third most swing happy team in the majors, swinging at 47.0% of all pitches. this is an unfortunate trend, as we are having a great deal of trouble connecting with pitches in the zone - at an 86.4% rate, fifth worst in the majors. this is a curious problem to have. we are not terrible about swinging at pitches out of the zone, but we are awful about swinging at junk in the strike zone (third worst in the majors for Z-swing).
so, now that we have some numbers to toss around, what do you all see when you watch the games? are we getting fooled, wrongly anticipating what kind of pitch is coming? struggling to connect with breaking balls? (by requesting visual-based opinions, i realize i have transgressed in the eyes of sabermetricians everywhere, none of whom ever actually watch games.)
i wish fangraphs, instead of tracking pitch values, would take a look at how often players and teams make contact with certain types of pitches, say. i can say that our negative pitch values as a team are only on curveballs and change-ups. it seems like this is a team-wide function rather than one where a few really terrible hitters hold down the team stats. the only player on the team with a positive pitch value, as a hitter, against both curves and changes is adam wainwright.
it's odd that the cards have such poor pitch values as batters against the curveball, since two of the best curveball pitchers throw for the cardinals. even if adam and chris have taught the batters nothing about how to hit a curve, you'd expect the team numbers as batters to come up against the curve somewhat, since they at least never have to try to hit chris or adam's curve. jaime, franklin, and kmac all have decent curve ratings, too.
i definitely agree that pitch values should be taken with a certain grain of salt, but i'm grasping at ways to make the team-wide struggle to make contact with balls in the zone make sense.
what's become clear is that the bad offensive luck we saw much of in may has started to turn to good luck. after a panicky couple weeks on the boards, the cards have scored 9, 12, 8, 4,and 8 runs in their five games this week so far, losing only in a pj walters special. our team wOBA is up to .332, a perfectly respectable, if not overwhelming, number. what we still have, though, is an offense with a lot of very talented players, but at least one serious flaw. i am not sure how the cards go about fixing it, but the strikeout rates will remain high and the batting averages low as long as the trend of not making contact in the zone persists. we can improve that .332, given the caliber of hitters we have on our team.
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Well said, tom.
I am glad to see the calendar turn over in such a positive fashion.
More Hatin' on Grit...
:=8/
He’s a Little Engine that Cud – its hard not to root for the guy. I mean, would Greene or Allen Craig Craig Alan Allan…u know who, really be better? Neither of them did so well in their turns up. If nothing else he’s a willing soldier who will do anything for the club – and he can pitch too!
I’d rather have Jimmy Baseball fo our veteran old-timer come back slot, Grit is who we got.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Agreed about Miles.....
Dude isn’t going to do much to help us, but I really don’t think he’ll be any worse than Craig or Greene would be. Let those two get some consistent AAA AB’s, and maybe things change in July or so.
I think the angst about Grit
has less to do with him as either a person or a ballplayer and more to do with fears of how TLR will use him.
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
No, it has to do with the fact that he's terrible...
Here are all the players that are preferable to Little Grit and are/were available to us:
1. Hoffpaiur
2. T. Greene
3. Gotay
4. Descalso
How does LG leapfrog all these players? His last two years in the majors he has a slash line of 184/223/241. His last two years in the minors he has managed 264/302/318. Prior to his 2009-10 performance, when he was one of the worst players in baseball, he was a replacement level player.
He’s also been very bad defensively over the course of his career at both second and short according to scouts and stats, and seems to have lost something now that he’s entered his mid-30’s.
There’s no excuse for anyone to ever describe Miles as anything other than a bad baseball player relative to others at the major league level. This idea that he’s fine for the back of the bench is wrong. He’s not good enough to be on any major league roster.
Tis better to lose bunting than win with dingers alone...
i think when we looked at it the other day
there were somewhere between 10 and 13 (!!!) players in the Cardinals organisation at some point this calendar year who are better than Aaron Miles. That is astonishing and a pretty ugly indictment of TLR’s propensity for playing and lobbying for “his guys”. I don’t mind it too much if it’s two similar players, or even if it’s a situation like Stav vs Craig, where you can make SOME sort of argument for Stavinoha being up and Craig being down.
But when you let guys like Lugo, Barden and Hoffpauir go for a bag of balls, AND have guys like Gotay and Greene producing in AAA, and you still go to a guy who was a terrible baseball player BEFORE his performance fell off a cliff in his early 30s, it is (IMO) an indication of a problem in the organisation that could be quite serious, and is currently only masked to some extent by our very good lineup and success so far.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
that's 10 and 13 SECOND BASEMEN by the way, not just any backup player.
there is no excuse for miles to be on the team. None whatsoever.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm not in favor of bringing up descalso
yes, i believe he is much better than miles, but i wouldn’t bring him up.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
It's true that over a small sample size
anything can happen. But right now, we have a bench that looks like this:
One of Ryan/Schu/Lopex
Stav
Miles
LaRue
Jay
That doesn’t inspire confidence at all. Both Craig and Greene have been in the system for a long time. They need to come up and be the #1 go-to pinch hitters so that they have a chance to fight their way onto the ballclub. Sure, there’s a chance that they do no better than Miles but there’s also a good chance they far surpass him and Stav.
babip giveth... and babip taketh away
And if you're really really concerned about Greene getting consistent ABs
then bring up Gotay who would be better in every respect but doesn’t really have a future here.
babip giveth... and babip taketh away
greene's speed alone makis him a more valuable asset to this team
plus, he’s a good shortstop who can play second…i’d much rather have greene on the bench
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
by VolsnCards5 on Jun 5, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
We have plenty of speed.
Lopez or Ryan is usually on the bench. Jay is plenty quick. Good Lord, this isn’t Whitey Ball.
Greene is a much better baserunner than any of those guys.
Lopez really isn’t that fast. There is NOBODY on this roster who can steal bases successfully and frequently.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
not that that's a huge reason to have him on the roster, IMO
but that’s the facts – Greene’s a better baserunner than anyone on the 25-man by some distance.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
and colby is one of the best at it
if i remember the bprospectus values from last year correctly, colby was by and far our best baserunner last year.
"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
The Best Defensive Play I Have Seen in Person
follow me on teh twitterz @greenfieldt
pretty sure greene'll be good at that, too
his main problem is he’s never ON first because he doesn’t hit or walk much!
FWIW, base stealing IS over-rated, but it’s nice to have someone who is a legit threat on the basepaths, and Greene has been a truly elite base-stealer over the last couple of years. His success rate, IIRC, is over 90%.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
hey it's a tool
Greene 1(+?), Miles 0
"Franklin has no patience for bloggers who believe because he pitches to contact, his start last season was something of a fluke."
who cares if we have "plenty of speed"
greene adds more and is a better player than Miles
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
we have little speed outside of colby
and he can’t steal a base like greene.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'd like to be a baseball player too
I’d work my ass off, hustle every play, take plenty of pitches, do anything the coach wanted me to. Unfortunately, I don’t have a Major League manager who’ll whisper my name into his GM’s ear so many times that they get fed up with it and bring me up to get him to shut up. So I guess I’m no Aaron Miles.
babip giveth... and babip taketh away
All of you guys bitching about this so much are insane.
He’s the 24th player on our roster. Use your stats and figure out how many games his 3 ABs a week will cost us. Then figure how much it will hurt Green, Hoff, Gotay, and Descalaso’s production to steal all of those at bats from them. Guys like Stavinoha and Miles aren’t being developed, they are being used, while we keep getting the players who have chance to be top 20 players on an MLB roster ABs and work. How does everyone miss this. Deal with it.
the players who have chance to be top 20 players on an MLB roster ABs and work
Gotay is a 6-year veteran on a 1-year MiLB deal. He isn’t a prospect. Greene is a backup middle infielder, at best, whose service clock is already ticking anyway. He isn’t really a prospect. Lugo was effectively released. Hoffpauir was released. Barden was released. Thurston (ugh) was released.
The guys who the organisation have overlooked in favour of Aaron Miles are not down in AAA (or, in about 3 or 4 cases, in other organisations) for their own good. They are down in AAA because Tony LaRussa thinks that Aaron Miles is better than all of them.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
first off, "deal with it" doesn't work as rational discourse here
second, I can do that! If he gets 60 at-bats the rest of the way—I’ll give him 75 plate appearances—Miles creates, say, five runs, according to his 2010 projections. If I cut fifty points of slugging percentage from Tyler Greene’s current AAA MLE translations from Baseball Prospectus—this is my gift to you—he still creates about ten runs, according to the same formula. This doesn’t take defense into account; Greene is an excellent defensive shortstop, Miles is a second baseman-shaped statue.
Five runs in a very conservative number of at-bats, no defense involved. That’s half a win right now. I can do this with certified non-prospect Ruben Gotay, too, and it will still cost the Cardinals runs in 2010. He shouldn’t be on this team, and if VEB’s frustration is incommensurate with how much playing time he’ll actually get—and it is—it’s because nobody wants to watch him continue to play badly when so many other options are already under contract. That seems reasonable to me.
by DanUpBaby on Jun 5, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think it's also because we're in a very close race at present
it does not seem unreasonable to state that every marginal win we can add over the rest of 2010 is potentially VERY valuable.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
especially since we should consider getting home-field throughout
with our favorable division. i wouldn’t “sell the farm” for it, but neither would i just piss it away. also, the fact miles is on the roster at all leaves open the possibility he could be on a post-season roster.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
tags
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/tags/adam-wainwright-is-badass
(also: http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/tags/chris-carpenter-is-badass )
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
there's not much in that first tag
because he keeps doing this
http://scottrovak.zenfolio.com/dailys/h2b31605e#h2b31605e
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Pujols moving into triple crown territory
Albert, despite all the hand-wringing, is in good position to make a run for the Triple Crown. I’d like to see him nab one of these.
Just win
by The Duke on Jun 5, 2010 9:33 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Wow
I’ve heard there needs to be a “down” year in one of the three stats, and so far this year, it looks like it could be batting average. Martin Prado leading at .321? Albert’s career average beats that by 10 points.
RBIs will be the toughest for him, since he’s in the #3 slot. Wouldn’t it be nice if Rasmus hit leadoff with Ludwick second instead of Schumaker? Would love to have Colby’s .391 OBP in the top slot instead of Skip’s .319.
Jobu needs a refill
I was looking at this the other day
NL is weak this year. Pujols has a big 2 months and he could do it. .335/40 HR/120 RBI might do it.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 5, 2010 12:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
that's about an average Pujols season!
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Andre Ethier
Ethier is hitting .363 but because of a short DL stint doesn’t have enough ABs to qualify. He’ll get those soon. So Albert has a lot of work to do to catch up.
as a career .296 I would give either a really outside chance of winning the Batting Title
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
yeah but if he hits just north of that on his return
he could finish the year in the .330s or above.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
hell yes
I'll leave this to Lao Tzu
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 5, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
In other news, Waino now also leads MLB with K's
Surprising isnt it.
As soon as Alberto Pujol-es starts hitting like the man we know as Albert Pujols and not like a really really good Matt Holliday, all will be well again, (provided Holliday starts hitting like a realy really good Holliday)
Lincecum has had a rough stretch lately.
That would explain WW leading, but it is nice ;).
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
niiiiiice
I'll leave this to Lao Tzu
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 5, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
So Tom, if I am reading this correctly
what you’re saying is, that at this rate, the team will be leading the majors by swinging at the lowest amount of pitches out of the zone by September? Since the team wOBA is also increasing, I do not believe I am going too far in believing that by those late September games we will have the best offense in team history. I will rejoice in the fact that it seems we will finally be watching some awesome baseball in September for the first time in what seems like forever.
Thanks for cheering me up!
I am pleasantly pleased, thankyouverymuch
by mattyfrommo on Jun 5, 2010 9:40 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
The Batavia idea sounds interesting.
I don’t know how much Miles knows about managing a baseball team, but if he can learn some of that while sitting on the bench (please…) with TLR and the Secret Weapon, it might almost justify having him use a roster space. Growing managerial talent for the low minors isn’t nearly as glamorous as the Show, but it’s still important to the health of the franchise.
StanTheManFan
Contributes any way he can.
He's normally a nuclear physicist
Except when writing for this list.
...
MLBSTLCardinals Cardinals are close to signing outfielder Randy Winn #stlcards 12 minutes ago via web
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/06/cardinals-close-to-signing-randy-winn.html
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
damn I was rushing over to tell everyone
better than Stav but probably sucks for Craig
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
gotta get up pretty early in the morning...
or wait till i’m drowsy
’m not sure what to make of this
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
meh...
he could bounce back… He’s definitely better than Stavinoha.
The problem is he seemed to be annoyed that he had to be a bench guy in NY. Is that going to improve in STL?
Tis better to lose bunting than win with dingers alone...
But Winn doesn't have the ferocious 'folding-deck-chair' technique?
How can we hit dramtic walk-offs in ridiculous fashion now?
he'll be benched and like it.
Carp will have no patience for anything less.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
if he doesn't want to sit on the bench we can just cut his ass
no harm, no foul.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
what is this?
why would we need a mediocre veteran outfielder. As if our outfield isn’t crowded enough. Our needs are not complicated right now. We need a 4th or 5th starting pitcher.
babip giveth... and babip taketh away
maybe there's a package headed out.
this seems like a freakish way to do it, though…
what is going on?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
there's more to this
i will bet you 632 internet bucks that there’s more to this.
babip giveth... and babip taketh away
who's the odd man out?
he’s like Lopex for the outfield. right?
and are the McCoven loling at us?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
if he's Lopex only in the outfield
we’ll be laughing at them. just sayin…
"Franklin has no patience for bloggers who believe because he pitches to contact, his start last season was something of a fluke."
Yeah a little plus defense and some plate discipline for league minimum
I could see why this would get the cardinals laughed at
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
eww I thought he was better than a career 7.6 BB%
still he is full of Winn and has some speed…. Pinchrunner?
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
Maybe Mac can sprinkle some pixie dust on him to up the BB%.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 5, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
his best skill has always been contact hitting with a bit of pop
he had a couple of 15-20 HR years and his career contact% of 83% is well above the MLB average.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
It's Stav or Jay
or please God, I know theres no chance of this but PLEASE Miles.
babip giveth... and babip taketh away
Silly fan Miles is a Vet and that has value to the team
plus he knows how to win, and he is willing to do what it takes, and he is in the Best Shape Of His Life
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
my theory
Cards brought up Miles who will hit .400 and win a few games with grit. Cubs will remember why they wanted him and trade for him and Stav in return for Gorzelanny (can’t spell his name) and give miles another two year extension.
Just win
4. Profit!
"Franklin has no patience for bloggers who believe because he pitches to contact, his start last season was something of a fluke."
seems like a cheap pick up for a guy
who had a 5 WAR season two years ago
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
he had a 5 WAR season...
two years ago. as a starter. he’s not going to start for the cards, and he’s no longer a 5 WAR player. what is he going to do that Jon Jay can’t, besides run a little bit?
"The outfield is deep and playing him straight-away, and the infield is the same, except first, second, third, and short are playing him to pull."
-Mike Shannon
league minimum for a guy who has had some amazing defensive skills in the past
so he can provide speed and defense at all three OF positions and has had some decent years with the bat in some extreme pitchers parks. i would think that he is not as good an option as Jay, Craig, or even Mather that said not much risk for some potential upside.
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
hit right handed
he had more power than Jay once upon a time, though it remains to be seen if that’s gone.
TBH he’s a similar player to Jay, you’re right, but he is free, and he can hit righty so perhaps he’s a decent backup CF option for when there’s a lefty on the mound.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
if they're similar, why make the switch?
randy winn this season: .213/.300/.295 in 71 PA
jon jay this season: .302/.302/.442 in 45 PA
jay seemed to have good defense, hes younger and, let’s be honest, hes probably going to be a fourth OF in the future as a key bench guy for years to come. why send him back to memphis when he was doing his job?
exactly what i'm asking
"The outfield is deep and playing him straight-away, and the infield is the same, except first, second, third, and short are playing him to pull."
-Mike Shannon
BECAUSE WINN CAN HIT RIGHT HANDED AND OUR CENTREFIELDER HAS A LIFETIME .232 wOBA AGAINST LEFT-HANDED PITCHING.
see above.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
so what's your plan, to start platooning colby again? that'll totally help this club out, not to mention his confidence
"The outfield is deep and playing him straight-away, and the infield is the same, except first, second, third, and short are playing him to pull."
-Mike Shannon
exactly
a 36-year-old who was DFA’d was signed to platoon with the cards CF of the future? that doesnt make sense.
Colby usually sits one day per week
and when we’re facing back-to-back lefties. It makes sense to have the guy who comes in for him be someone who can hit left-handed pitching.
Winn’s a rental, he won’t be back next year most likely (unless it’s a cheap move to let Ludwick go, which I would disagree with even if Lohse is done) and Jay’s development isn’t going to be hurt by going back to AAA for 4 months.
Winn’s not a platoon partner, he’s a bench player who can play all 3 positions (the corners very well), hit reasonably vs lefties and righties, and sub in for colby one day per week. I think he’s more or less the same player as John Jay, but a better baserunner who can hit from the right side. He’s also had a couple of VERY good years, notably a 5 WAR season just 2 years ago.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
he's a pinch hitter who can play CF
and a very good defender. He’s an excellent baserunner too, probably better than anyone on our current roster. TBH, he’s probably better than Craig or Jay, and certainly better than Stavinoha. If TLR has no intention of playing Craig then I think this is a fair move.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
TLR is done with Rasmus
WInn in CF!!!!
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
That's not funny..
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 5, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
probably is a sign that
we’re not going to see mather again this year though.
"Franklin has no patience for bloggers who believe because he pitches to contact, his start last season was something of a fluke."
ive got a weird feeling
that the org has soured on bombs. after the wrist issues, he wasn’t bombs. i dont know if he ever comes back up.
Not at all weird.
Mather hasn’t hit in 2 seasons. After wrist surgery, there is reason to be pessimistic about his future.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jun 5, 2010 1:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
as someone else said
he does the jobs that Mather and Jay do, and is a bit more flexible, both defensively, and in being a pinch hitter. There’s definitely some upside there as he put up 1.6 WAR last year in an unlucky year and 5 WAR the year before.
The one worry is that TLR falls in love with him as he’s a veteran and his struggles this year are symptomatic of him actually being done, but his skillset traditionally ages quite well and I think there’s a chance he’s better than some of the other options on our roster.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
i think he's roughly worthless
we might get a middle reliever or a LOOGY back or something.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
The padres need OF help and are stacked at RP
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
Since when is Stav considered outfield help?
They have Kyle Blanks coming back in a couple weeks anyway.
Jeff Jordan's dad can beat up your dad.
by flipthebird15 on Jun 5, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
whad about
Stav and Jay? This team is so stocked now with similar profile OFs that we could deal more than one and still be trying to find ABs for people
i know morneau better than morneau knows morneau, and morneau knows it.
Jay has basically no value either.
seriously, he’s a 4th OFer. The Yankees just DFAed a 4th OF who was perfectly adequate until this year. There’s a bunch of veteran guys like Jim Edmonds and Fred Lewis knocking around who are above-replacement level players who can be acquired for next to nothing. No-one is trading anything relevant for John Jay.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
i think we wouldn't trade for bullpen help now
as they’ve all been very good so far.
I have pushed the idea of a Craig for Bell trade on here before, though. I don’t necessarily think it’s a great use of resources, but if we’re in a close race as the year draws on, I could definitely see that that’s a good move to put us over the top, and I think we could extend Bell (admittedly at the expense of being able to afford a FA SP next year, providing we don’t drop Ludwick).
Flipthebird is right, though. Stavinoha wouldn’t bring back anything from the Padres pen.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
the bullpen has been one of the biggest strengths
i don’t see a deal for a bullpen arm
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
yeah
i’m actually a lot less concerned about it, too. Motte’s looked excellent lately and KMac’s back to something like his early 2008 form, his curve looks a lot better and he’s walking fewer guys. I have faith in Boggs too.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
well
he’s got a .278 wOBA, with a .261BABIP. how much better would you say he is than Jay or Mather, since this is probably a move for a backup CFer (who has no business playing CF, i might add)?
"Franklin has no patience for bloggers who believe because he pitches to contact, his start last season was something of a fluke."
K%
Winn has a career strikeout percent of 16.4%, but has struck out in 24.8% of his 2010 PAs. I find this worrisome. He is old and this could indicate a slowing bat.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jun 5, 2010 1:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
his contact % is WELL down, too
but that could be a chicken/egg thing I guess (contact % is likely to be low when he’s striking out a lot) and it IS a very small sample size.
That said, you may very well be right. I’d give him a month or so and if he’s not cutting it we can dump him.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
ok, regarding defense
fangraphs has his 09 uzr at 14.7, but at the vague positioning of OF. is there anywhere that divides this up by specific position, since there are nice little adjustments for LFers?
"Franklin has no patience for bloggers who believe because he pitches to contact, his start last season was something of a fluke."
Fangraphs does.
By year and individual position. Winn’s best position defensively is RF, but has been above average, for his career, in each OF position. However, UZR has him as a poor defender in 2010, whatever that means.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jun 5, 2010 1:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
yes, fangraphs does this
LOOK HARDER!
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
There's got to be a trade coming, with Jay being used in a package.
That’s my guess. We get a cheap, aging switch hitter with hopefully some decent pop and decent D… which should be good for this bench, while Jay gets shipped out for pitching. This is the only way I truly justify this move. There is more to this than meets the eye.
I hope we've dealt Craig actually
it’s hard to see a spot for him in the future, and I think he has potentially reasonable value. I’d hope it’s for a back of the rotation pitcher under team control for some time (or ideally maybe even a prospect-for-prospect swap). That said, I find it hard to see a potential suitor at the moment.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Craig has the arm of a little girl
whilst I think arm strength is severely over-rated in terms of its importance to RFers and OFers in general, I find it hard to imagine Allen Craig being the full-time RF on a TLR team.
About the only way I can see Craig (and indeed Jay) seeing regular PT in future is if they platoon in the OF, and they swap Craig into LF with Holliday (who isn’t as good as craig in the field but has a better arm) in right when there’s a LHP on the mound.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
2010 RF Platoon:
Jay/Craig.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jun 5, 2010 1:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
At $8 million?
That could come in handy to replace Lohse and Penny.
Tis better to lose bunting than win with dingers alone...
I am assuming that he will not pitch again when thinking about future stuff
FWIW. I actually don’t think it changes things hugely; he’s 32 (I think) next year and should be on the downslide anyhow. I dunno if the dropoff from past-his-peak Kyle Lohse to (say) PJ, Ottavino or a $4m free agent buy-low is really that great. 1 win at the absolute most.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I also meant beyond that
I think he is done, as in, career done. Guys with his stuff don’t generally have much left in their mid-30s, and I just wonder if he’ll come back with anything at all. It sounds like the problem and surgery he’s had are pretty unprecedented in baseball and everything i’ve read about the subject (not much!) suggests that it’s serious and may restrict what he can do post-op. Even if he does come back, I don’t think he’ll be much of an improvement over [insert marginal AAAA starter here].
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
2010 I think Luddy stays
given he’s on course for a 4-win season, I doubt we let him walk for $8m, even if it means PJ Walters starts next year as our #5 starter (ugh! Actually, there’s probably more options, assuming Waino/Carp/Garcia/Lynn are the top 4, Ottavino, a cheap dumpster dive, etc). I don’t think that would be good business.
Also, I am not convinced whether TLR would play Craig in RF. His arm (apparently) is appalling, which is a big part of why he got moved off 3B.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
that's evil!
luddy should be a mainstay for this season if we’re playoff bound
i know morneau better than morneau knows morneau, and morneau knows it.
he means after this season
he’ll make ~$8m next year. I say keep him, personally. I also believe we’ll get some draft pick compensation after next year, too (?), so that’ll be another good reason to keep hold of him.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
clearly TLR has a hand in this (obviously)
why do you love veterans so much? I don’t care one way or the other has he shows more potential than anyone else on our roster, but I don’t get it… we had a decent bench before and then they decide to get Aaron Miles (33) and Randy Winn (37?)…
i honestly think TLR wants a “veteran” *(aka OLD) bench for some reason
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
I ask every Fox game
But I beg anyone with HD recording capabilities to record todays game for me in its entirety. Just rercord it in normal file mode and send it my way.
I’ll make it worth your while, any 3 Cardinals games since the start of 2006.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 5, 2010 11:38 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
OT
shame we can’t face doug davis this series. apparently he’s got himself his own douchy clothing line, along with mark reynolds. Longballing - the alternative to dingers. do all the brewers have their own affliction line?
"Franklin has no patience for bloggers who believe because he pitches to contact, his start last season was something of a fluke."
i think he's adam fucking wainwright
which has nothing to do with chris carpenter
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
At this point...
Chris Carpenter is Adam Wainwright, jr.
Tis better to lose bunting than win with dingers alone...
by guayzimi on Jun 5, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sundance, maybe?
To Carpenter’s Butch?
Although…can Wainwright swim?
I once shot a man just to see him die...then I got distracted and missed it.
by TheDuke32 on Jun 5, 2010 2:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah
in a non-Halladay year, Waino is having a Cy Young-calibre season.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
It is a three way race for my money
all three of the front runners are having amazing years
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
don't forget josh johnson
"Franklin has no patience for bloggers who believe because he pitches to contact, his start last season was something of a fluke."
kinky.
"Franklin has no patience for bloggers who believe because he pitches to contact, his start last season was something of a fluke."
yeah I forgot about Ubaldo
I guess his crazy ERA and winrate means it’s him or Halladay. I just don’t see Waino even being in that conversation, sadly, although he’s actually been about as valuable as Ubaldo by WAR.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
But Waino has the K lead and the same record as Halladay
plus he was in the race last year, voters like familarity and obscene stats.
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
i doubt waino wins the K race this year
though i guess we’ll see. I think he’ll top 200 again but so will roy and ubaldo. I also think adam might struggle to win 20, though i guess he’s got a good shot. I think Ubaldo is almost a lock to win 20 now, and halladay is better than 50% maybe.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
The NL WAR Leader according to B-Reference
1. Jimenez (COL) 4.1
2. Wainwright (STL) 2.8
3. Halladay (PHI) 2.7
4. Hernandez (WSN) 2.6
5. Pelfrey (NYM) 2.5
Johnson (FLA) 2.5
Gallardo (MIL) 2.5
8. Hudson (ATL) 2.3
Garcia (STL) 2.3
10. Santana (NYM) 2.2
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
that uses ERA WAR
whilst you can argue (perfectly well, FWIW) that it reflects best what’s happened so far, I think FanGraphs WAR (which uses FIP) reflects better what’s going to happen in the future. Halladay is comfortably ahead on that measure.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah but the CY is for what you have done(or at least were percieved to have done)
not for what is likely to happen next By the way Ubaldo has walked more than 2 batters once since his no hitter there is every reason to think will continue this for a while, the next start at Chase field should be interesting
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
i don't really have a horse in this race
except that I think Waino is most definitely NOT the Cy Young so far (nor is he likely to be in future), but I definitely agree that if the season ends now, Ubaldo is (rightly) the CY.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
But we are trying to predict what happens next and using first have RA WAR isn’t a good predictor of that.
Well ZiPS didn't see this coming
so what good is an inaccurate projection system in projecting the rest of the season?
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
It also doesn't mean it will be accurate
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
Well there is a higher probability that a projection system that
averages the last 3 years to of a pitcher is inaccurate when he is entering his prime, especially if he has shown consistent improvement. You live in St. Louis right?
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
The projection system does a weighted average
So his 2010 season so far will be weighted higher than his 2009, 2008 and 2007 seasons. Furthermore, improvement due to aging is estimated as well.
No, I live in Los Angeles.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 6, 2010 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
also, if you use tRA WAR
which is a different predictive stat, we get this
waino – 3.3 WAR
halladay – 3.1 WAR
jimenez – 2.8 WAR
i think it’s safe to say that they’re all pitching pretty phenomenally well
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Thank god the Phils dumped Lee
the Cards and Rockies can get to Halladay, Lee is a different story
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
Hmmmm. Not sure we'll hit Halladay
or anyone will, really. The good thing about dumping Lee is that we get to tee off on Hamels, Happ and the rest, none of whom are much more than decent #2 guys (though I watched Hamels nearly shut us out earlier this year in Philly!).
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
the Rocks and Cards would both rather face a dominant
RHP than a dominant LHP
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
i think we're marginally better at hitting LHP
despite what our stats this year would suggest. There’s no reason lefties should dominate us, especially. Only Colby and Schu should struggle against them, and Yadi is a much better hitter of lefties than righties.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Waino's ERA is 2.05 you realize.
And Waino is better than Ubaldo going forward. I could see them both ending up with a 2.5 ERA to end the year, and Waino will likely have more wins given that the Cardinals are a better team than the Rockies.
well I also like
making unfounded statement that confuse opinion with fact, so there is that.
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
and Jason Hammel has a better FIP than Carp
and a similar xFIP so it doesn’t matter that Hammel has given up 31 runs in 44 innings
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
Ubaldo has a 3-win lead over waino right now
that should erase any difference in team quality (and more).
I don’t think waino’s that much better than ubaldo that he can make up over a run of ERA, all things being equal. Over a full season he’s likely not a whole run better per 9 innings, let along 4 months.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
the rocks are good
and i don’t know how you can say waino is better than ubaldo going forward – are you in the future?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I think Waino is better than Ubaldo going forward and will place internet money on it
Just like you think Ubaldo is the second coming of Jesus.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 6, 2010 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
no, i don't think he's the second coming of jesus
and if i did i certainly wouldn’t bring it up here.
i just note that he’s younger than waino, and better at this age than waino was, though i suppose we could compare numbers. waino seems to keep getting better, and the same can be said for ubaldo. one was born in 84, and one in 81. imagine how good ubaldo could be at waino’s age, if we say he only improves at the same rate as waino, although i think being more talented he could improve at a faster rate.
yes, i’ve been following ubaldo for awhile, as my own personal projection before he ever made a big-league start was that he would be an elite pitcher. perhaps this biases me in his favor, if i’m wanting so much to be right (although he’s already an elite pitcher, so i don’t think so), but there is possible bias for waino on this site also, as there is for rasmus. colby might be my favorite player, but i can see the faults and the talent of his competitors in center field. i think most just use numbers that support their fandom/assertions. outside of a cardinal site, there may be very few supporters of the theory that waino is having every bit as good a year, or better, as ubaldo.
i have no problem placing money on something because i trust my insight. when i am wishy-washy, i don’t put money on it. but i don’t know what internet money is – is it like a dare?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I don't know
I’m confident that Waino is better than Jimenez going forward, given that Waino hasn’t had a bad start since June of last year. He’s striking out more batters than Jimenez, walking fewer, allowing the same amount of ground balls. The edge that Jimenez has with his fastball and change stuff is mitigated by Wainwright’s edge in command (excellent) and breaking stuff.
What do you want to bet? The metric of choice for me is ERA.
my metric of choice would be money
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
ha, well i learn more arguing with you
than many others, so i hope you don’t take it too personal.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
for the record im assuming its going to be nearly impossible for
Ubaldo to improve at the same rate as Waino
3.70 ERA in 2007 to 3.21 to 2.63
there is no way he does this
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
really?
well, those are waino at age 25 in 2007 forward. of course ubaldo is younger, so let’s take ubaldo at 24 forward: 3.99, 3.47, 0.78. i’m not sure how you calculate rate of change, but it appears that ubaldo has improved at the greater rate.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
ummmm
imagine how good ubaldo could be at waino’s age, if we say he only improves at the same rate as waino, although i think being more talented he could improve at a faster rate.
i took that to heart and im assujming there is no way he improves from age 25 to age 28… that is what you said
by the way, i didnt include this season for a reason… Waino’s 2.05 ERA and Ubaldo’s 0.77 ERA are definitely not going to be their finished ERAs (Waino’s is more likely though)
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
but you used three years for waino
to use three years for ubaldo i had to include this year.
who are you talking about that i said couldn’t improve from 25-28? i said they both did/will.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i guess i misunderstood
you still can’t use 0.77 ERA to show how Ubaldo’s improved at a faster rate IMO…. since he will not have anything close to that
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
then we have to use 3.70 and 3.21 for adam
and 3.99 and 3.47 for ubaldo. pretty close i’d say, but the younger guy has more room for improvement going forward, especially with his stuff.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
welll he might improve more
but i’d credit that to the fact that he had a worse first year
if he improved by Waino’s third year he’d have a 2.95 ERA, so i think its natural that Ubaldo would improve more right now but I still want to wait until Ubaldo’s third year is completed
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
if he had a worse first year
you do understand that it was at a younger age, right?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
ok
because it doesn’t matter who improves more
are you trying to say ubaldo is better cause that comment is leading me to believe you think so which is possible (i don’t think its true, but)
im confused… it thought we were directly saying who has improved more in last couple years
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
and then you switched it to he's younger
by the way i said first comment cause i meant it doesn’t really matter who improves more if Pitcher A is better by the third year
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
which pitcher A, if ubaldo
is definitely better by the third year. he is having a great year in this, his third, year starting. so i guess we agree.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
this is his third year
it is what it is. you brought up the three year period. same with waino – his performance is likely not sustainable, either.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
didn't realize he had a 2 era last year
if he did, i take it back.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
this doesn't deserve a response
and IT is sustainable…
reasonable LOB rate, improving GB rate from last season, improved K rate, lower BB rate, lower FIP and xFIP than last year as well
about the only things he’s unsustainable at are his HR rate (which is 5.9% – career is 9.1%) and his BABIP, both of which aren’t that bad
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
ok, so you are saying either he had
a 2 era last year, or he didn’t but he will this year. i disagree on both counts. we shall see. i think it will be over 2.5 for sure.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
non-ubaldo year you mean
hes got the wins and the era that sportswriters love. unless he falls off a cliff, its his to lose.
yeah
I think Halladay’s PG will help him, though. I think Ubaldo and Halladay might have similar ERAs come the end of the year. Don’t forget Halladay’s 8-3 with an ERA of 2. He could still win 20-games and his ERA isn’t a big fluke either. Ubaldo hasn’t been nearly as good as his ERA or W-L would suggest, so both will come back to earth (although it’s unlikely that he won’t reach 20 wins, I think).
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
This will have little to nothing to do with your point
but i was reading on BTB about how ubaldo threw a 99(!) mph fastball with 5" of break(!!!) and 10" of pfx(whatever that means). He is just incredible.
source: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/6/2/1498904/i-know-btb-is-a-stats-based
"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
The Best Defensive Play I Have Seen in Person
follow me on teh twitterz @greenfieldt
I don't even know what break is
10" PFX isn’t that incredible, although it’s pretty good for a 99 MPH fastball.
I don't understand how Ubaldo's 2.6 FIP means his season is an illusion
but Halladay, and Wainos 2.3 FIP means they are pitching to talent level not to mention Josh Johnson’s 2.66 FIP
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
FWIW its not an illusion
but he’ saying 0.77 ERA <<<< 2.6…. (meaning expect a drop)
catch my drift?
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
oh he will regress
but assuming he is a 3.00 ERA pitcher from here on out he is still down around 2.00 at the end of the season
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
ZiPS
projects him as 3.76 the rest of the way which puts him at 2.67 at the end of the year
definitely a cy young type of performance
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
What did they have him at coming into the year
what is they value of averaging his 22,23,24 years to figure what he will do the rest of the way
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
i would imagine
that his preseason projection was a tic higher than his current RoS projection. i don’t understand the second question
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
well
Original ZIPS on fangraphs – 11-7, (23 starts? injury?), 139 IP, .302 BABIP, 3.76 ERA, 3.51 FIP
they really didn’t think much of him
Updated – 21-8, 34 starts, 219.3 IP, 2.67 ERA, 3.13 FIP
Really I wouldn’t be too upset if he pulled off these stats…. there is a very unlikely chance he reaches sub-2.00 ERA at this point
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
that's not his preseason projection
that’s his projection for the rest of the season
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
i was always under the impression that it was for some reason
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
right because they see him falling off a cliff?
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
exactly
they didn’t think much of him. who are these people and what have they been watching? since his first major league pitch it was obvious he was something special. projection numbers don’t fall at the same rate as talent-based improvement rises – that’s why people are always surprised. yes, we get it, according to projections garcia will suck the rest of the year, but he really has a chance not to – of course he has no where near ubaldo’s ace talent, but jaime is still a solid 3.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
and Halladay will also be around 2.00 if he continues pitching like he is
he’ll also have a similar number of wins and a perfect game, and quite possibly more K’s. I just think if they have similar numbers they’re more likely to give it to Halladay.
Ubaldo’s also been remarkably lucky on flyballs. Whilst a pitcher with his velocity is probably likely to give up fewer HRs than average, his xFIP is actually 3.49. If he regresses back towards that xFIP he could end up with an ERA in the mid-2.00s. That said, Halladay’s out-performing his xFIP too.
I’m guessing it’ll be close between them, though I think you’re right and Ubaldo’s probably the favourite right now.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you underestimate Waino
He’s right up there with Hallday in terms of ERA, xFIP, FIP and tRA this season. Halladay has a slight edge in xFIP, and Waino has a slight edge in tRA, otherwise they have pitched just as well. And Waino has pitched just 5 fewer innings, and the two have the exact same record.
Furthermore, ZIPS projects a 3.11 ERA out of Halladay and a 3.15 ERA out of Wainwright going forward, while Oliver projects a 3.11 ERA out of Halladay and a 3.28 ERA out of Wainwright going forward.
I think Wainwright has every bit the same chance to win the Cy Young as Halladay.
sure
but neither have a chance, presently, against ubaldo. a guy can improve 100% in a year, but those projections can’t account for that. based on everything that has happened to this point, there is just as much reason to believe ubaldo will be even better.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Um, what exactly has happened so far to this point?
By all statistical measures, Ubaldo has not pitched significantly better than Wainwright or Halladay or even Josh F Johnson. Why do you think he is some freaking god?
by vivaelpujols on Jun 6, 2010 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
perhaps we should examine the measures, then
in the end what is important in anything and everything are results. no one cares how they are achieved, but results matter. yes, on average numbers can somewhat predict results, but that is with about 90-95% of players – those on either end of the spectrum, such as stav on one end and ubaldo on the other, seem to defy this perfect world. the angels always outperformed their pythag, so should one have kept saying they aren’t that good, won’t make the playoffs, etc. when with the eyes we could see they were and would? perhaps these are called outliers, and they are found on either side of any bell curve.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
ERA is results that are biased by many things
Including:
-Defensive performance
-Ball park effects
-Luck
If we are trying to eliminate those factors and see who has actually pitched better, it’s necessary to use stats like xFIP and FIP and tERA. Neither are perfect of course, but neither is ERA for obvious reasons.
I did an average of all 4 of those metrics and Jimenez comes out in a virtual tie with Halladay, Cliff Lee and Wainwright and just ahead of Josh Johnson.
fair enough
i guess the question will be if waino can lower his numbers, or ubaldo’s rise. of course ubaldo could have a rise in era but a subsequent drop in fip, could he not?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
..
Don’t forget Halladay’s 8-3 with an ERA of 2
Hey, well Waino is 9-3 with an ERA of 2, so he’s better!
Halladay's a better pitcher and he plays for a better team, and he's more famous, and he's thrown a PG
I think he’ll have his nose in front.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
uh, yeah, just a bit
it’s a pretty long nose.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
"Halladay is the better pitcher"
So why isn’t that reflected in his projections? Both Oliver and ZIPS project the two to be equal going forward.
Furthermore, the Phillies are barely better than the Cardinals, if at all. I’m not sure where you are getting that from.
The PG probably helps, as a tie breaker, but that’s what it is. Because of right now, Wainwright has pitched just as well as Halladay and projects to pitch just as well in the future.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 6, 2010 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions
what is the "success rate" of oliver and zips?
i don’t know anyone outside cardinal fans who thinks waino is better than roy. i love waino too, but he will never have carp’s talent, imo.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Oliver and ZIPS are simply a weighted average of previous years stats
I’m not sure how accurate it is, but all it’s doing is making objective sense of the stats. Going by that, Wainwright projects to be just as good as Halladay going forward.
i love waino too, but he will never have carp’s talent, imo.
This is kind of ridiculous. Since the start of 2009, Wainwright has a 2.47 ERA in over 300 innings. That’s better than all but one season of Carpenter’s career, and Wainwright’s been better than Carpenter during that stretch.
In his career Wainwright has a 3.04 ERA. That is ridiculous. And he has gotten better EVERY SINGLE SEASON that he has been a starter. At some point you have to question your perception when it COMPLETELY goes against the objective data.
no i don't
carp on his best day still has more talent/stuff than waino on his best. we should only look at carp in stl, to be fair, to get a more accurate assessment, and then he’s had all the injuries. still, has waino ever had a better year than carp’s best year, or a better year than carp’s second best?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
still, has waino ever had a better year than carp’s best year, or a better year than carp’s second best?
is this really a fair way to grade whose better NOW?
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
i am not grading who is better now
i am talking about a talent level each has. we could argue who is better now, but it would be hard to argue carp possessed better stuff.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
ok
but his cy year was pretty good, and last year he runs away with number 2 if not for the oblique.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
ok
let’s say those two years are comparable. what does waino have to put up against carp’s year last year?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
how is carp doing this year?
he out of the running? or will he add a third year to that?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
FWIW I think Waino now is definitely our #1, and better than Carp
it’s close, but in game 7 of the WS I’d rather have Wainwright on the mound than any Cardinals pitcher (and probably ahead of just about any in baseball, tbh).
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 7, 2010 6:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Carpenter's best year was either 2005 or 2009, depending on how you look at it
In 2005, Carpenter pitched 241 innings with a 2.83 ERA and a 2.90 FIP. In 2009, Carpenter pitched 192 innings with a 2.24 ERA and a 2.78 FIP.
In 2009 Wainwright pitched 233 innings with a 2.63 ERA and a 3.11 FIP. I’m gonna call that as good as Carpenter’s in 2009.
This year, Wainwright has a 2.05 ERA and a 2.61 FIP. Those numbers are better than any Carp has put up in his career.
in one third of a season
let’s see if it is sustainable, as they say, before we call it a year.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i think its pretty funny no offense cardball
that you think ubaldo’s 0.77 ERA is somewhat sustainable but Waino’s 2.05 is unsustainable
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
i never said ubaldo's era was sustainable at all
i don’t believe it is. but i don’t think he will have a 4 going forward. i think he got an unbelievable start, and it’s in the books, and if he has a 2.5-3 going forward, as many think that’s his level, then his season number could be below, at, or just above 2. this is not ridiculous – pedro put up a very good number one year.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
so now ubaldo is as good as pedro?
by the way somewhat was the key word… you think ubaldo is more talented and will pitch Cy Young cailber for the rest of the season while Wainwright won’t
i don’t understand this… Waino has the track record, Ubaldo doesn’t
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
sorry, but you are talking out your ass
i understand you are in high school, and always take that into account, but ubaldo has been considered a premier talent by more scouts than just myself. this is what was expected of him, is not a mirage, and i doubt you ever saw pedro pitch in his prime except maybe on tv replays. fwiw, ubaldo has about exactly the same track record, as you call it, as waino, yet starting at a younger age. he, like waino, came out of the bullpen in the rocks run to the world series, and subsequently became a starter. damn near parallel, yet at a younger age.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
im not talking out of my ass at all
everytime you disagree with me your reasoning is that im in high school and i wouldn’t “understand”…
did i need to see pedro pitch to know that ubaldo being as good is probably not at all realistic? I don’t think so
my point was is that you think Ubaldo will pitch 2.50-3.00 to land him around 2.00 or lower, but that Waino’s 2.05 ERA will definitely go down
i really could care less that ubaldo has better stuff at this point.. its who has better results… and coming into the year Waino definitely holds the case
for the third time, wait until the season ends until you proclaim Ubaldo better than Wainwright (which VEP has pointed out isn’t really even that true)
for the luck factor for good measure
Ubaldo – .223 BABIP, 92.4% LOB, 1.6% HR/FB, 2.60 FIP, 3.49 xFIP
Waino – .259 BABIP, 80.9% LOB, 2.61 FIP, 3.01 XFIP
for the record as well, Waino has 2.7 WAR on fangraphs while Ubaldo has 2.8 WAR… im just saying that Waino hasn’t even been that unlucky… with the exception of his BABIP of .259 (which isn’t nearly as lucky as .223)
meanwhile Ubaldo has nearly identical FIP and has been lucky on HRs while leaving on a unsustainable amount of baserunners and getting lucky on balls in play…..
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
really, i say you are in high school all the time?
i noted that once to defend you, but otherwise no. find me somewhere where i said you would not “understand” as you put it, or else don’t try to put words in my mouth, make up shit, whatever you are doing. i can tolerate a lot of baseball ineptitude in understanding the game, but don’t tell me what i said.
i care about results too, as i have stated, and ubaldo has them – they are on the books. everyone else wants to project going forward – well, if they are even going forward, ubaldo will have the better numbers, obviously.
i don’t know where you get that i equate ubaldo with pedro, who is the greatest pitcher i ever saw. i never ever said such a thing.
try to stick with what is actually being said, rather than your interpretation of such, and it will save a lot of space.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
im not sure where baseball ineptitude is
but this tells me you are comparing him to pedro
this is not ridiculous – pedro put up a very good number one year.
that’s not an interpretation… you basically said since pedro could do it, ubaldo can too
btw
well, if they are even going forward, ubaldo will have the better numbers, obviously.
hopefully you mean end of year stats…. if you mean his stats from June 6 to October 3 then please do not state this as a fact
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
haha
whenever you say someone “basically said”, then you are reading something into it. it is no secret here that i consider pedro the greatest pitcher ever, so i was merely saying that it happened, and so it is possible. i could say the same for gibby’s 1.12.
you have some reading comprehension problem, or else you assume people are dumb. i said that they each have numbers in the books already, and so if they are even going forward, then ubaldo will obviously have the better numbers, since he is starting out ahead. i do not know how that is difficult to understand – pretty sure that everyone but you got it, but you do seem to need an awful lot of explanations. perhaps read things twice before you respond, and that might save you and i some typing.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
you have some reading comprehension problem, or else you assume people are dumb. i said that they each have numbers in the books already, and so if they are even going forward, then ubaldo will obviously have the better numbers, since he is starting out ahead.
What you actually said was very ambiguous and easily misunderstood. I’m not sure you should attack someone else for their comprehension skills when your original statement was not clear (and, in fact, appears to contradict what you say above, to my comprehension at least. FWIW I am a 29-year-old scientist, and not in high school!):
everyone else wants to project going forward – well, if they are even going forward, ubaldo will have the better numbers, obviously.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 7, 2010 6:54 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
well, if they are even going forward, ubaldo will have the better numbers, obviously.
I don’t agree with that. Wainwright has been at least as good as Ubaldo in the past (excepting ERAs this year) and is projected to be as good going forward. Because Ubaldo has had a better start, I’d bet he’ll finish with a better ERA, but I don’t necessarily see how he’s “obviously” going to be better going forward.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 7, 2010 6:52 AM EDT up reply actions
since ubaldo has the better numbers
in the books, then if they are even going forward, then how can ubaldo not end the season with the better numbers? seems obvious to me, or am i missing something?
reading your block quote, i didn’t say ubaldo is obviously going to be better going forward, i said just what i said here, that he will obviously end with the better numbers if he is ahead now and they are even going forward. perhaps i am saying this in a confusing way – it makes sense to me though.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Your first comment is very easily read as
“I think Ubaldo will be better going forward” rather than “If they are even going forward, Ubaldo will finish with the better numbers because his are better already”.
It’s an ambiguity/comprehension issue. Part of the problem (having re-read both quotes) is the double meaning of the word “even”.
FWIW I think there’s a fair argument that Waino might be a bit better going forward than Ubaldo, but I don’t really have a horse in this race and I seriously doubt Waino will be ENOUGH better to supplant Ubaldo for the ERA crown come the end of the year.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 7, 2010 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Oliver and ZiPS will be taking heavy account of his years pitching against NYY and BOS
he’s facing much weaker competition this year.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 7, 2010 6:43 AM EDT up reply actions
hard to believe that was Wainwright's first complete game shutout
just had it in my mind that he had already done that.
if we are now having problems connecting in the strike zone, it must be either timing or pitch recognition issues, or a little of both. I suppose they could get better at that, but it could be a thing where only a couple of players are really bad at it and are bringing the team stats down. although even Albert looked lost there for a little bit. glad that Holliday is connecting more often too.
as for Winn, my guess is they wanted someone that will replace Stav as kind of a designated pinch hitter. but couldn’t they have found someone better than Randy
Winn?
I'll leave this to Lao Tzu
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 5, 2010 12:57 PM EDT reply actions
yeah, me too
he seems to go so deep into AVERY game I assumed he had 2 or 3 by now. I’m sure I remember one last year!
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW
i think Winn replaces the Jay/Mather section of the bench. I don’t think it’s a bad move personally but i’m obviously in the minority. I reserve the right to gloat if he has a successful run with us.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm with you Monk
Although I don’t totally understand the move, I’m willing to go with it. It’s got some value IF there is a trade involved with this whole fiasco… Winn is coming cheap and there is the potential for upside. If it doesn’t work out, you let Winn go without losing a ton of money. Plus, he was in the AL East, so a change to the NL Central could help out his bat. I’ll go with this move
weren't there quite a few people ariund here who wanted winn in the offseason if holliday didn't sign?
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jun 5, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I think I might have written a post about it
I liked him as much as I liked any of the other third tier options.
yes
i thought he was a decent option as a real buy-low. He signed for F all this year and he was (adjusted for some cruddy luck last year) an average OFer in 2009. I’d have happily gone into run-prevention mode if we hadn’t got our first or second targets in the OF, signed two of the better pitching options, and just got Winn to play LF (perhaps with some Allen Craig too).
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
IS THERE NO JUSTICE
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 5, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
old guys
who aren’t very good a baseball replacing young guys who are better at baseball. my favorite strategy
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I don't think you can make the case that Jay is better...
and anyway if Winn continues to struggle the move can easily be reversed.
Tis better to lose bunting than win with dingers alone...
He did gun that one guy down at the plate and hit a HR.
That doesn’t make him better?
/kidding
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 5, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
okay
jay has a .324 wOBA and winn has a .278 wOBA
jay is also half winn’s age. one is average, one is terrible, one is young, one is old
jon jay isbetter than randy f winn
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
seriously, you even want me to reply to this?
they’ve both taken less than 100 ABs this year. Winn was a 1.6 WAR player last year and would’ve been well above average if he’d managed his career BABIP and HR/FB rates. He had a 22.3% linedrive rate.
Jay has a .364 BABIP this year. Unless Winn’s fallen off a cliff (and I don’t dispute that it’s possible he might’ve, but I’m really not sure about using 71 plate appearances in the AL East as evidence of that) they’re very similar players.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
if they're very similar players
(aside from the fact that one is in decline and one is still young enough to get better), why make the move? unless you really think colby needs to be platooned or just can’t hit lefties (based on 150 PAs)
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I think it's reasonably redundant
I like the idea of having another switch-hitter, though, and I like the idea of having a righty who can play centrefield (assuming that Colby’s days off will always coincide with a lefty starter on the mound).
I could’ve lived without Winn, but I don’t think I’d sweat it either way, tbh. I also think Winn has, perhaps, more short-term upside. With a bit more luck he’s still an average player (I’m not sure I’d say that about Jay, although he has impressed so far) and he’s not far removed from a 5 WAR season (which I concede is likely unattainable again).
Unlike Miles (who is clearly a LOT worse than the other options) I don’t really see anything about this move worth getting bent out of shape about. If anything, adding another “veteran” to the bench may placate TLR’s insatiable desire to be surrounded by pensioners, and might make it easier for us to dump Miles back in the minors where he belongs ASAP.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
i don't think Jay is BETTER, persay.
i just don’t see how Winn’s particular gifts help the club at all right now. his #1 gift is his defense (i think that’s inarguable) and that doesn’t start adding up unless he plays a LOT of innings. unless you guys are interested in a Colby platoon again, i sure hope he DOESN’t get a lot of innings, because it means either luddy, lego, or colby, probably our third, fourth, and fifth best hitters are sitting to get him in the game. and while maybe Winn will hit better than Colby against lefties, he certainly won’t hit better than lego or luddy against lefties or righties, nor colby against righties.
if you’re happy having him on the bench as a pinch hitter/pinch runner/late innings defensive replacement, great. i am too. but get rid of nick stavinoha, who can’t do a damn thing in the outfield or on the basepaths, rather than Jon Jay, who’s a pretty good all around player. unless you think Jay needs the rest of the season in memphis so he can start at right field for us next year, in which case I can’t argue your point. i personally think Jay is getting enough playing time here to help him just as much as in memphis.
"The outfield is deep and playing him straight-away, and the infield is the same, except first, second, third, and short are playing him to pull."
-Mike Shannon
I think Stav, Winn and Jay are all probably similar hitters
I don’t think any of them are average with the bat. The only guy who could actually be an impact hitter off the bench is in AAA IMO – Allen Craig.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Jay was the one that would lose playing time
but I hate that both Miles and Stav are still on the roster. Please make it stop, Mo.
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
VEB: WWGTD
by The Continental on Jun 5, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
It's like Thurston & Stav last year.
WTFK
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 5, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
so dumb
VETERAN PRESENCE
I'll leave this to Lao Tzu
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 5, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
so the cards went from the baby bench
that was at least full of potential … to an old and past its prime bench. stav, miles, winn, and larue? good god. getaway days are gonna suck.
I think you all might be missing the point
Jay, Craig, et al are possibly part of our future, and we can get them consistent ABs at AAA to keep their development going. The guys on our bench now (stav, miles, winn, and larue) are no part of the future so we don’t mind giving them limited ABs. It might not be the way I’d run the team, but it does have a lot of merit.
Yep, every Hall of Famer did something unique. Mike Schmidt played with his hat sideways. Roberto Clemente chewed other people's fingernails. Tris Speaker was Japanese. Lou Boudreau rode a dolphin into the batter's box. Nap Lajoie would only use John Wilkes Booth's dismembered leg as a bat. And he corked it. Johnny Mize was from the future. - FJM
isn't jay ready now?
he’s not projected to do a whole lot more
"Franklin has no patience for bloggers who believe because he pitches to contact, his start last season was something of a fluke."
jon jay's future
is off the bench. with the cardinals, hes never going to be a regular OF (hopefully). if he wants to make it in the bigs, its going to be as a fourth/fifth OF. in my opinion, hes better served in the bigs learning how to PH and come into the game late than starting in AAA.
i think the only way Jay is a vaguely full-time player
if they go with this when ludwick leaves:
vs LHP:
Holliday LF
Colby CF
Jay RF
vs RHP:
Craig LF
Colby CF
Holliday RF
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
eww...
re-sign luddy!
"Franklin has no patience for bloggers who believe because he pitches to contact, his start last season was something of a fluke."
Lego's getting better defensively but I don't think I would move him back and forth.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 5, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
i dont think he's getting better
he’s the same guy he’s always been. He’s adequate in a corner, IMO, and his arm (whilst it’s not great) is probably better than Craigs.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought he looked lost part of last year.
He hasn’t seemed as bad this year. Not great mind you but, as you said, adequate. I just don’t like moving guys around that don’t seem to be that flexible to start with. And I agree, his arm probably is better than Craig’s but if you platooned Craig with Jay, he wouldn’t be playing everyday. I know that’s weak but I really don’t like the idea of jacking the regulars back an forth.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 5, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
i really don't think there's much difference between playing LF and RF
but I do know what you mean – they get used to the lights, caroms etc. from the spot they’re in. It might be better to have the shitty arm in right, even though he might give a few extra bases, if it means we catch a couple more flyballs over the course of the year.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions
to be fair (and I'm someone who likes the Winn deal)
Jay and Craig have probably learnt all they can in AAA and Jay, at least, is likely going to be a career 4th OFer. I don’t really know that there’s any great benefit to have them in AAA instead of the majors.
FWIW my bench at present would be Lopez, Greene, Winn, Craig, LaRue.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
In the minors they still get playing time
in the Majors they are watching Holliday, Rasmus, and Ludwick play.
so what?
I doubt they magically forget how to play when they sit on the bench for a few months. Indeed, if they do, that’s kinda bad news for their careers and Craig and Jay are probably going to spend the majority of their time as 4th outfielders, professionally.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I like that bench of yours.
TGreene is the one who should be in STL right now, plus baserunner, plus fielder who can slide over to 2nd, some pop in the bat, it just doesn’t make much sense. Why not see if he’s capable of potentially taking over SS or 2B in the future, or increase his value for teams that need MIF
"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
The Best Defensive Play I Have Seen in Person
follow me on teh twitterz @greenfieldt
as long as Miles isn't there i'm not too bothered!
Stav, at least, isn’t playing in the field, so he’s not hurting us that much. Miles is just an aberration though.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
i think that's that's clearly the best, most versatile bench (assuming winn is not washed up).
the problem with the bench is not Winn over Jay, it’s Stav over Craig and Miles over Greene.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jun 5, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed
even with a horrendous season that’s seen him cut by the Yankees, Winn is still probably hitting better than we reasonably hope Aaron Miles to. He’s still got a 23% linedrive rate and an 11% walkrate this year. His BABIP is at .260 (as opposed to .323 for his career). Other than his reduced contact% and higher K% (which may or may not be a concern, I agree) there’s no reason to think he’s not just been a bit unlucky.
He shouldn’t be our main PH option anyway.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
"The outfield is deep and playing him straight-away, and the infield is the same, except first, second, third, and short are playing him to pull."
-Mike Shannon
Larussa's career batting line
.199/.292/.250
He sees himself in Miles.
by Merry CRasmus on Jun 5, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
no fucking clue
I'll leave this to Lao Tzu
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 5, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
poor jon jay
what’s a guy gotta do to stay up
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
Age prematurely.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
that one home run that was over the dugout
I guess he needs to hit those every game to stay up since he’s too young?
I'll leave this to Lao Tzu
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 5, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
or he could be better at baseball
but that is probably not going to happen – he is what he is, a 4th of’er like winn now, but at least winn was a starter in his day, and maybe jay could be a small part of some trade.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
going to game today
i expect ottavino to have a good start (or average)…. by the way when does fangraphs update Ottavino’s 2010 season because he hasn’t been on there (im assuming since they didn’t project him to play this soon that he won’t ever show up)
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
I expect Ottavino to walk a lot of guys and get rocked
I’m really hoping to be pleasantly surprised, though!
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
FG don't have any minor league numbers yet for this year
not sure why they don’t have his one MLB start, though…
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
i have a feeling it because fangraphs didn't project either to have playing time in MLB
just a guess
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
yeah
you have to search jonathan jay to get it to come up on fangraph’s
i also had a hell of a time getting waino’s pitching numbers (as opposed to batting numbers) to come up on statcorner. weird stuff with stat sites today
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
also
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1247&position=P
just spell it wrong or something so that they bring up the list of potential search matches
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
why
he has a separate MiLB and MLB page is a different question
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
quite a lot of players have that
i think jaime did until quite recently.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 5, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Having a high Z-Swing to O-Swing ratio is obviously a good thing
Because you are swinging at more hittable pitches while laying off balls. The Cardinals are 10th highest in that category in the majors.
yeah
it’s much easier to improve upon that stat than a bad o-swing
I'll leave this to Lao Tzu
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 5, 2010 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions
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