Colby's Evolving Batting Stance

by mysterui on Jun 25, 2010 1:09 PM EDT

I'm not a biomechanical expert by any means (I'm looking at you, thepainguy!), but even I can tell that Colby's changed his stance throughout the year. In a Joe Strauss article (I know, I know...), dated June 6th, Colby acknowledged that he'd been working with his father on his swing by leaning more towards the plate and modifying the leg kick. He explained the reasoning: "I wasn't swinging at that many bad pitches, but those pitches that were coming over the plate, I was missing them. Then they would make a good pitch and strike me out...Today, I hit balls that were over the middle"

If only there was a site, where fans could view stats, possibly in graph form. Unfortunately, I can't break up the requisite plate discipline statistics by date, but I think overall numbers will do just fine. Numbers after the jump

"I wasn't swinging at that many bad pitches"

In 2009, Colby's O-Swing%, or percentage of pitches he swung at outside of the strike zone, was 25.6%. This year it sits at 24.6%. Hey, Colby's self-aware! A.D.A.M must be jealous

"...those pitches that were coming over the plate, I was missing them"

In 2009, Colby's Z-contact%, or percentage of pitches INSIDE the strike zone he made contact with, was 88.0%. This year it's 84%. Correct again!

***

So presumably, Colby and his father worked on a stance that allows him to maintain his strike zone discipline while eliminating some holes in his swing inside the strike zone. Let's take a look at some links from mlb.com, which is the easiest site in the world to navigate (Baseball-Reference.com is a close 2nd).

4/10: Milwaukee

5/15: Cincinnati

Notice how closed his stance his, how upright he is, and how high is leg kick is

6/12: Arizona (Look how handsome this pitcher is we should trade for him oh wait that's right Mark Mulder =( )

6/22: Toronto

Now notice how much more open his stance is, more crouched, and the smaller leg kick

Conclusions?

Well first of all, a lot of the explanations for Colby's recent surge were centered solely on his new contacts, but it very well might be due to this changed stance. If anybody knows how I can get plate discipline splits by date (specifically Z-contact %), we'd be able to make far better conclusions, but for now, let's leave it at this:

Colby, with all of his Boomhauer-like dilections in speech and self deprecating sense of humor regarding his intellegence, at least has an implicit knowledge of advanced plate-discipline sabermetrics. That's pretty awesome.

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good work mysterui

I am a little confused by this part

“…those pitches that were coming over the plate, I was missing them”

In 2009, Colby’s Z-contact%, or percentage of pitches INSIDE the strike zone he made contact with, was 88.0%. This year it’s 84%. Correct again!

isn’t it bad that his contact percentage this year is 84%, compared to 88% last year?

*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 25, 2010 1:58 PM EDT reply actions

It is bad indeed. That's a big reason why his K-rate has elevated this year

I was just using the stat to reinforce Colby’s own evaluation of his struggles this year

Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'

by mysterui on Jun 25, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I would take the FanGraphs plate discipline stats at face value

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-the-bis-data-right/

by vivaelpujols on Jun 25, 2010 2:50 PM EDT reply actions

Even if it's off a little bit, it still passes the eye test, for me

His strike zone judgement is unquestionable better this year, and he does seem to be whiffing in-zone more this year

Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'

by mysterui on Jun 25, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Even if it’s off a little bit, it still passes the eye test, for me
His strike zone judgement is unquestionable better this year

I agree with you eye-test wise, but I don’t see how the numbers support this conclusion. The difference between a 24.6% O-swing and a 25.6% O-swing is absolutely negligible.

He’s seen something like 500 or 600 (very roughly) pitches outside the zone both this year and last year. If he’s swinging at 1% less of them, that’s literally like 5 or 6 pitches, total, over the course of the season, that he’s not swinging at. It’s just noise.

And, FWIW, his O-swing % has now crept above the level it was in 2009.

So I don’t think it’s fair to say he’s swinging at less outside the zone.

He IS, however, swinging a tiny bit less overall, so perhaps it’s fair to say he’s being a bit more patient. Perhaps he’s swinging at slightly fewer pitches on the black that he can’t hit (as you said, his zone swing % is down a fair bit).

The single biggest change in his plate discipline figures is the amount of pitches in the zone he’s seeing – just 44% as opposed to 51% last year. Why? I’m guessing it’s because he’s hitting more in the air (3.5% increase in flyball rate) and hitting them REALLY hard, as his HR/FB rate has taken a huge leap from about 9% to about 19% (which puts him into serious slugger territory). Fewer pitches in the zone + similar O-swing % = more walks.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Jul 6, 2010 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions

colby has definitely been pitched to more carefully

it’s pretty evident watching the games. pitchers do not want to make a mistake to him, especially when the on-deck batter is usually not a power threat (freeze, yadi).

i’d say pitchers have challenged colby even less than pujols, or else they’ve just made a lot more mistakes to pujols (although he’s uncharacteristically not killing those pitches – just anecdotal, but albert has missed a career’s worth of meatballs and hangers this year).

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Jul 6, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Great post

defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.

by effin fisk on Jun 25, 2010 3:21 PM EDT reply actions

SSS

(Pitchers beginning their motion included to show that it’s his stance and not just a timing difference)

Yes, he is doing something differently, but let’s not draw conclusions from extremely small samples of data.

Colby is hitting very well in June, and his BABIP is actually drastically down from .400 in April/May to just over .300 for June, meaning his line is far, far less luck-influenced and much more influenced by the fact that Colby Rasmus is a man. On the other hand, Colby’s power has been pretty amazing this month, even for him. He has eight home runs on 32 fly balls this month, for a HR/FB of 25%. The league-leader in HR/FB this season sits at 23.5%, and he is Mike Napoli, so the sustainability of Colby’s 25% rate is somewhat suspect. That said, I don’t think anyone would argue that Rasmus is not a strong and ruthless man who drops bombs on unsuspecting cities like he has never heard the compound word “warcrimes” (he probably has not).

What was I saying again?

So, this month he has struck out 25% of the time- below his season rate, but his walk rate has been very low as well: 7% for a BB/K of .27 compared to his season BB/K of .45.

So, his BABIP (luck) has been worse than his season average (.350), and his plate discipline has been worse, but his still-decent BABIP (.310) and lowered K rate have kept his batting average over .300 and his HR/FB have made him a power-hitting menace to free people everywhere.

Given all of these odd splits and small data samples, I’m not sure anything can really be concluded about his new stance, and I think we should continue to treat our center-fielder with respect, caution, and fear as necessary.

I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons

by hazel on Jun 26, 2010 5:53 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs

I was discussing this in a thread a few weeks ago, possibly with you.

We came to the conclusion that he’s probably a 14-16% HR/FB type hitter, as he’s got a slight uppercut in his swing to give the ball carry and also because his homers are nearly all past the “barely out” range. He’s got more no-doubters than he does nearly in play homers over the last two seasons, and the most no-doubters on the Cardinal team (outside of Pujols, obviously) over than same span. I think he’s going to be a 30 HR threat for the foreseeable future.

The strikeout rate worries me some (it doesn’t seem to worry VEP as much, but I think he and agree to disagree on that), because I think that’s going to coincide with some extreme hot/cold streaks for him and I think he’s a better hitter overall than a 3TO guy like Adam Dunn. As far as BABIP, he’s a bit like Jim Edmonds in that category — Jimmy always had a good batting average on balls in play because he struck out quite a bit but also stung nearly every ball he put in play.

Can Colby round out our new MV3?

by fourstick on Jun 28, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Even a rate closer to 20% seems like it could be sustainable considering his power.

And many hitters with that sort of power will break 25% in a given season. Also, Rasmus could easily sustain a higher than average BABIP because of his hitting ability, speed, left-handedness and such. 30 HRs also seems very, very reachable, and if you assume a 20% HR/FB and nearly 50% of his BIP being flies, he’s got a good shot at 40 at least once in the next few seasons.

Edmonds is actually a pretty damn good comp for Rasmus as a hitter and a player: Power-hitting lefty CF with some contact issues. Similar batted ball profiles, but Rasmus could have more power and speed while he doesn’t have as good a batting eye (yet). Edmonds wins in arm and hollywood-ness, obviously.

If his K rate keeps him bouncing between Edmonds and Carlos Pena as a hitter for the next few years, that would be fine as well, considering he’s a good CF and a plus baserunner.

by hazel on Jun 28, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

edmonds and rasmus are pretty similar hitters numbers-wise

biggest differences are jimmy’s oppo field ability and that he was a high-ball hitter whereas rasmus loves the low ball (unless it’s away).

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Jun 28, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Why do lefties...

always have prettier swings than righties?

When I think of swings I really like they are almost all lefty swings.

If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.

by cardzfanbub on Jun 29, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I sure do like alberts swing.

And Will Clark had a pretty swing.
But I think you’re pretty much right about that, now that I think about it.
Of course there are exceptions, like Musial, but I think there may be more pretty leftys that righties.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a switch hitter with an equally pretty swing from either side.

Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.

by Dave Pendleton on Jun 29, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions

musial is the exception?

he’s left-handed you know….

Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog

by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 29, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions

he knows

but musial is an exception in that he did not have a pretty swing, at all.

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Jun 29, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions

dave actually saw musial play you know...

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Jun 29, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions

And we've all seen video, you know.

Regression, bitches.

by spants on Jun 30, 2010 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions

so we all know he's lefty, you know

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Jun 30, 2010 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Will Clark

Am I thinking of someone else? Will Clark hit left handed as well. Funny guy too. I’ll never forget seeing him at Drillers Stadium in Tulsa lining up a bunch of adults behind a bunch of kids in an autograph line then signing for all the kids and leaving with the excuse of having to take batting practice when each of the adult autograph memorabilia for retail types tried to hand him multiple items to sign.

by WizardofOz1982 on Jul 5, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions

They're more rare. Like a precious stone or something.

Regression, bitches.

by spants on Jun 30, 2010 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions

I was discussing this in a thread a few weeks ago, possibly with you.
We came to the conclusion that he’s probably a 14-16% HR/FB type hitter, as he’s got a slight uppercut in his swing to give the ball carry and also because his homers are nearly all past the "barely out" range

I think that was with me. I remember comparing him to Carlos Beltran, IIRC, who has a career HR/FB in the 16% range. I don’t think he’s been absurdly lucky with his HR/FB rate this year because, as you point out, most of them have been no-doubters. I suspect as time goes on (as I pointed out in my reply to mysterui above) pitchers will get more and more cautious with him, and throw him more stuff on the black and outside the zone. FWIW, he has a REALLY poor contact rate outside the zone, so he’s whiffing a lot when he swings at them. As long as he retains (and even improves) his plate discipline, I think he’ll be fine, and be a reasonably high walkrate guy with a so-so BA and a lot of HRs.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Jul 6, 2010 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions

okay, i laughed at the warcrimes bit.

but i tend to agree with you. i think that without some comprehensive swing analysis that happens in august or september once this years results tend to normalize, it’s hard to make broad, sweeping claims that it’s the batting stance or whatever.

"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
The Best Defensive Play I Have Seen in Person

follow me on teh twitterz @greenfieldt

by tgreenfield on Jun 29, 2010 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions

dingdangolegenevaconventions.

"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."

by tom s. on Jul 3, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

stances

to paraphrase Teddy R, ‘stand softly and carry a big bat.’
What I liked about Colby from Day 1 was that he was relatively calm and quiet before the wind-up/delivery. Not up to the JD Drew pinnacle, but reminiscent.
By contrast, I get irritated by these ants in the butt and shoulders hitters. My current beta noire being the newly acquired Randy Winn, of the ’I’m gonna swing, I’m gonna swing, I’m gonna swing, eh, no I won’t’ approach.
There are exceptions, but mostly I prefer to watch quiet stances as opposed to busy ones. One exception being Boog. Yes he girates ridiculously when first in the box, but he does settle down nicely as the pitcher is about to throw. If only he could, you know, then HIT.

by the Tewk on Jul 3, 2010 1:02 PM EDT reply actions