Jaime Pitch f/x
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 7:09 AM EDT
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PrintGoing into Spring Training, the starting rotation was one of the biggest question marks for the Cardinals. Although the 1-4 of Wainwright, Carpenter, Penny and Lohse looked solid enough, the 5th starters role was very much up in the air. The early favorite seemed to be Kyle McClellan, with guys like Rich Hill in the periphery. I, among others, clamored for the Cardinals to bring in John Smoltz who was very good for us last year and would have cost a pittance. Nobody seemed to entertain the idea of Jaime actually winning the job out of Spring Training as nobody thought the Cardinals were crazy enough to put a pitcher just coming off of Tommy John surgery and with little experience in the high minors in the rotation of a contending team. However, the Cardinals apparently were crazy enough to do just that and so far it has worked out.
Through 85.1 innings pitched Jaime, and his shiny 1.79 ERA, has legimately been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball and easily the most promising left handed starter to pitch for the Cardinals since Rick Ankiel. While Ankiel was successful by putting up absurd strikeout numbers, Jaime has been able to keep the ball down and avoid hard hit balls. While Ankiel possessed a 95 MPH fastball and a kneebuckling curve, Jaime has an assortment of moving fastballs and offspeed pitchers (as well as his own kneebuckling curve). Today, I'll like to go a bit more in depth as to how Jaime has been so successful this year.
Jaime's pitches
So far in 2010, Jaime has thrown exactly 1275 pitches* that were captured by the Pitch f/x cameras. Based on some scouting reports and quotes from Dan 'n Al, I figured that Jaime threw 6 different pitches: a fourseam fastball (FF) a twoseam fastball (FT), a cut fastball (FC), a changeup (CH), a curveball (CU), and a slider (SL). Using those pitch types and a K-Means clustering algorithm, I was able to classify each pitch Jaime threw this year. I then plotted each of them out by their vertical and horizontal movement relative to a pitch without spin.
*Before his last start
These are from the catchers point of view, so from a lefty, curveballs move towards the third base bag and sliders move towards the first base bag.
The most interesting thing I can say about Jaime's stuff is the incredibly wide range of movement it gets. His fastballs all are thrown with roughly the same velocity and vertical movement but vary greatly in horizontal movement. Some of that variation is due to park calibration errors in the Pitch f/x cameras, but a lot of that is real. The pitch that I'm labeling a cut fastball (which might just be a variation of the fourseam fastball) averages around -1 inches of movement. The average fastball from a left handed pitcher moves about 6 inches towards the first base bag and Jaime's fourseam fastball moves around 4 inches, so his cutter has 5-7 inches of cut - if that makes sense. The other variations of his fastball have pretty typical movement for a lefty. In addition, all pitches are above average velocity wise, which is always a good thing.
His curveball is the pitch that we always hear about as being Jaime's best, and for good reason. The average curveball from a lefty has about -4 inches of horizontal movement and -5 inches of vertical movement. Jaime's curveball also averages around -4 inches of horizontal movement, but nearly -10 inches of vertical movement, making it a real 12-6 hammer. Surprisingly, he's only thrown that pitch around 10% of the time.
The pitch he goes to most frequently (after the different variations of his fastballs) is that slider we hear about so often about. According to Jaime himself, it's a cutter, but looking at velocity and movement, it's acts very much like a slider. There are some sliders that he throws a little bit harder and with a bit more rise, so perhaps those are his cutters and he also throws a slider.
The changeup is the more inconspicuous part of his repertoire. There is nothing special about it really - the velocity and movement of the pitch essentially mirrors that of the average left handed changeup, but at the very least it makes a good "surprise" pitch to throw the righties.
At any rate, the one thing that is obvious is that Jaime has a wide range of stuff, having multiple variations of the fastball in addition to at least three quality offspeed pitches.
Pitch selection
The next thing I wanted to take a look at was how Jaime mixed up his pitches according to the situation. As I showed above, Jaime has a very versatile repertoire and I bet there are some interesting patterns of pitch selection based off of batter handedness, base/out situation, count, etc. First let's check out how he pitches to righties and lefties:
Pitch type
RHH
LHH
CH
14%
1%
CU
11%
9%
FC
13%
7%
FF
23%
21%
FT
20%
17%
SL
18%
45%
Against lefties he goes to the slider nearly half of the time and almost never throws his changeup (only two times the entire year). That's pretty typical I would say. He throws his curveball equally to both batter hands, which isn't surprising given the 12-6 break of the pitch.
Interestingly, his fastball selection doesn't vary much based on the batter handedness. I would have suspected he typically used one time of fastball more often against left handed hitters or something, but that doesn't appear to be the case. He throws slightly more cutting fastballs against rightes, but it's not a significant difference. Now let's check out Jaime's pitch selection based on the count:
Pitch type
Ahead
Even
Behind
CH
9%
13%
10%
CU
20%
11%
2%
FC
11%
10%
15%
FF
11%
24%
32%
FT
7%
19%
30%
SL
42%
22%
10%
Unsurprisingly, he's gone to the curveball and slider more when ahead in the count then when even or behind, and to the fourseam and twoseam fastball more when he's behind. However, he uses his changeup and cut fastball roughly equally across all counts.
Location
Jaime uses his fourseam and twoseam fastball in pretty much the same fashion - down and awayish to righies and down and inish to lefties. Assuming that's really what he's trying to do, it seems as though his twoseam fastball command is much better as his location with them is more tightly clustered:
All charts are shown from the catchers point of view - click to enlarge.
However, his locates his cut fastball a lot differentially than the other two variations, seemingly aiming to go inside on righties and away from lefties:
This is encouraging to me as it implies that Jaime really does treat the cut fastball as a different pitch than the others and seems to have some degree of control over that. In other words, the type of movement his fastball has is not just random but also correlates loosely with the location of those fastballs.
Now let's take a look at his offspeed pitch location. I combined the three other pitch types into one chart to save room:
He generally throws his slider down and in to right handed hitters and down and away to left handed hitters. With the curve, it looks as though he just aims down the middle and hopes it breaks somewhere nicelike. Given the abundance of curves below the strikezone and on the corners, that seems to have worked for him so far; however, he has also hung a lot of them. That lack of command might be the reason why he doesn't throw the pitch more often. He throws his changeup down and away to righties and almost never goes to the pitch against lefties.
Other things
There is actually a whole lot more that I want to look at with regards to Jaime's pitching style, namely his better performance with runners on base and what exactly is fueling his groundball abilities so far, but time and a database contraints prevent me from looking at such things for right now. Consider
this a preliminary look at Jaime's 2010
season so far, with hopefully more analysis pending.
| Pitch type | Ahead | Even | Behind |
| CH | 9% | 13% | 10% |
| CU | 20% | 11% | 2% |
| FC | 11% | 10% | 15% |
| FF | 11% | 24% | 32% |
| FT | 7% | 19% | 30% |
| SL | 42% | 22% | 10% |
314 comments
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28 recs |
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Comments
i donno, i'm a big fan of anal ysis.
I did that twice in college. Best $5 ever spent.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
I'm disappointed their are no Google hits for "anal ysis" besides the ones that come up for "analysis"
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Who's sis was it?
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 24, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Leading off with a Nazi comment...
Strong way to start a discussion thread. I like it.
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
Awesome
This is why this site is a daily must read for me. Great post.
by ajo080s on Jun 24, 2010 7:54 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Couldn't agree more....
"I don't like to sound egotistical, but every time I stepped up to the plate with a bat in my hands, I couldn't help but feel sorry for the pitcher." Rogers hornsby.
pitch selection may be entirely up to Yadi, at this point.
Jaime has said a couple of times that he’s still building up his rolodex of opposing hitters, so he relies on the catcher to call the game. I’ll be interested to see how he does when he’s starting to shake off.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
He did shake Yadi off some in Tuesday's game.
I didn’t count how often, but I did see him shake off a couple late in his outing.
by ArkansasTravs on Jun 24, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
that may be a feel for some of his pitches not working
it’s of course hard to gauge, given that none of the pitchers really shake Yadi off. just that he’s been quoted (and so’s Dunc and Yadi, I think) as saying that’s the plan for now.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Tremendous analysis
Genius really.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down and that foot is me
yeah great data
Love the insight on how jaime is pitching.
by sdrone on Jun 24, 2010 9:21 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
wait, what?
you do pitch f/x’s?
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jun 24, 2010 8:59 AM EDT reply actions
Excel 2007
makes me want to punch my screen.
we just upgraded to it recently at work
ctrl – shift – L to Filter probably made me happier that it should have. it may have even existed in 2003, but it’s new to me
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
I'm still on Excel 2000 at work!
THIS IS WHY THE MARINERS LOSE
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
by mysterui on Jun 24, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
hahahaha
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 24, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
The Cubs have Bartmann,
and the Mariners have old Excel.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 24, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
What do the Pirates and Orioles have?
Radio Shack Tandy’s?
by Michael_68_1999 on Jun 24, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Beginner programs that make your name run back and forth across the screen FTW.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 24, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
they gave Silva that contract, but can't even update their Excel?
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
That's why.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
I work for the biggest Financial Institition
in the world, and just last week got upgraded from Windows 2000…so I feel your pain
Albert Pujols is ridiculous.
Try working with schools, the most backwards-ass technology sphere ever
I found out recently that some of our users are still using Windows 98. I could not believe it.
I had some professors whose personal office computers
were still running Mac OS 8 and 9. I really just wanted to shake their hands.
Girlfriendup is in Japan, where Internet Explorer 6 still has 20% marketshare, and her IT guys refuse to let people upgrade to 8 because it breaks the local government’s intranet.
I hate that I have to use 8 at work.
I’ve got the FF mobile going, but I can’t upgrade it, so it’s a bit limited. V 1.0 something. No ad block, etc.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
I need admin access,
which the sob’s won’t give me. And it seems I can’t download the newer version from the site, it tries to run the update, then I get slapped down. I need to take my mem stick home and run it from there, and I think I’ll be ok.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
i don't remember where i got it from
but no, i don’t think it was mozilla. some portable apps site since it’s special and flash capable
i can upload it to mediafire if you want it
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
mozilla has 3.6.4 now....
I’m trying to grab it from work. I’ll let you know.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
okay
it probably won’t have flash. you have to pull a file from an official flash download and stick it into the plugins folder. but let me know
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
ya...its trying
to add flash right now, but I’m pretty sure that I’ll get slapped down by the man. I’ll just do that at home, and should be good.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
This prompted me to upgrade my Firefox
Seems 3.6 handles going back/forward considerably faster.
Not afraid to nitpick
Ya...everything is working great,
but I have to grab the flash plugin from home tonight. IE can suck it.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
it's terrible as far as web browsers go
As far as internet explorer goes it’s a revelation. Sites with CSS and modern web apps actually work, albeit slowly. Her office might be the only group of people who’s ever had a real reason to use Google Wave, but IE 6 is literally the only browser people working for the Japanese government can use.
in what possible way?
having used both, one is a mediocre, modern web browser, the other is just the newest version of IE 6.
IE 8 is constantly freezing up and dragging along
IE 7 is moderately fast by comparison
there’s only a handful of computers at work that have accidentally been upgraded to IE 8 and i always dread getting one of them
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
another web developer chiming in
i wish IE hadn’t bothered with 8. the inconsistencies in its CSS rendering and DOM model compared to 7 outweigh any advances otherwise. basically, just one more craptastic browser to account for when coding.
I think at least 20% of our users are still on IE6
I’d put my estimation closer to 30%, though. K-12 school IT departments move so slow on these things, it’s unreal.
It's like a whole new world when you upgrade from 03 to 07
after a while you go to a machine with 03, and it looks completely foreign. The key thing is that most of the keyboard shortcuts (if not all) you were used to in 2003 are still there in 2007.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on Jun 24, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know about its spreadsheet function, clearly,
but its word processor is a nightmare. I’ve never been a Microsoft guy, but Word is the best there is.
Shut your mouth.
Wordperfect 5.0 for DOS FTW.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jun 24, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Wordstar...for CP/M.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
by TBender on Jun 24, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I was a WriteNow for System 7 guy as a child
but I’m afraid the speed gains aren’t as fantastic in a post-68040 world
The spreadsheet functions aren't great, but the graphing is so much easier
You can copy and paste entire graphs with their formulas set up, so it’s much easier to create matching templates.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
pivot tables, biotches!
Joe Morgan: "I've always said that the purpose of a minor league system is to help the big league club."
pivot tables are da bomb.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Really great analysis
Viva – Best and most interesting post I’ve read in a long time. You broke it down into layman’s terms yet kept it enthralling. Sweet work!
A rec for you, sir.
Very thorough, thoughtful post. This helps to “see” why Jaime’s been so successful…he really does have a pretty impressive arsenal. I mean, what do you really sit on if you’re an opposing hitter?
Can someone give me a quick refresher about how the pitch movement graphs work?
The location graphs are easy to understand obviously but I always get confused by the movement.
For example, what does it mean exactly that all three of his fastballs have “positive vertical movement” whereas the curve has “negative vertical movement”? I remember that it has something to do with movement relative to a gravity’s natural pull or something, but I am still a little confused.
Thanks in advance dudes and dudettes.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
The pitch movement graphs are in units called "spin deflection"
Which is the amount of movement a pitch gets not accounting for gravity. Given a changeup and fastball with the same amount of spin deflection, the changeup will actually have more drop because of gravity, but not more movement compared to a pitch without any spin but similar speed.
It’s basically a way to separate the idea of spin induced movement and gravity induced movement. The curve has negative vertical movement because if you threw a pitch at 75 MPH with no spin (and ignored knuckling effects) it would move about 10 inches less downwards than the curveball.
It’s all about understanding it within the context of the baseline. Try the same though process I just mentioned with the curveball and let me know if that clears things up for you.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Ok, that helps a little
So then, a spin-less ball at his fastball velocity would get more downward movement than his fastballs do, since they have positive vertical movement?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
yes, he's putting backspin on his fastballs (which is necessary to throw them at that velocity) so that's the case
The guys with the best sinkers will have around 0 inches vertical movement on their fastballs because whatever they are doing to sink the ball completely counteracts the amount of backspin needed to throw it fast.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Ok, cool
I think I pretty much understand now. I guess I expected his fastballs to have lower vertical movement because he’s known as a groundball pitcher. Is that where location comes in rather than pure movement?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
That's my question also
His location doesn’t look amazingly down in the zone and his fastballs don’t really have any vertical drop to them compared to average, so I’m guessing that he’s either getting a lot of groundballs on his offspeed pitches or is getting more contact on pitchers down in the zone than up in the zone.
So that’s what I want to try and look into sometime later on.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Cool
For some reason there was always a bit of information I was missing when I tried to interpret those graphs.
It will be interesting to see which pitches he tends to get contact with versus no contact, or groundballs with versus other batted balls.
Thanks for the help and the awesome content.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Great analysis. . .
one quibble, though:
“. . . curveballs move towards the third base bag and sliders move towards the first base bag.”
Both move toward the third base bag, which is borne out by looking at the graphs.
Really great article. I am struck by how many pitches he can throw with control at such a young age. I am also struck by how difficult it must be to umpire his games behind the plate, given the repertoire of pitches.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jun 24, 2010 9:43 AM EDT reply actions
Those look like some arbitrary (hard) breaks in the fastball variations
how are you making the decision to classify something a FC versus an FF versus a FT?
Think; It's not illegal yet.
Well they aren't arbitrary
They were done using an algorithm, so it sorted pitches into the 3 most distinct clusters for fastballs. I agree that there is going to be a ton of overlap, but there is really nothing I can do about that, short of classifying pitches inning by inning.
Do you disagree with my overall point (that he is throwing 3 distinct fastballs, or at least 3 different variations of the fastball?)
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
It definitely looks as though he is throwing a cut fastball at the very least
The two-seamer and four-seamer may be close enough to be called the same pitch.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
One thing I can look at is fastball percentage by game
If you see a lot of variance it means that a lot of the difference in fastballs is going to be caused by calibration errors:
Does that look right to you?
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
so
this would imply an enormous amount of variation, meaning that a lot of the difference is caused by calibration errors… am i right?
"The outfield is deep and playing him straight-away, and the infield is the same, except first, second, third, and short are playing him to pull."
-Mike Shannon
by tehzachatak on Jun 24, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, I don't know if it implies an enormous amount of variation
Because I don’t know what the right amount of variation should be.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
good point.
can we look at breaking pitch % by game? see how consistent that stays.. not that it would REALLY tell us anything about fastball variation but i’m interested nevertheless
"The outfield is deep and playing him straight-away, and the infield is the same, except first, second, third, and short are playing him to pull."
-Mike Shannon
by tehzachatak on Jun 24, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Ya this makes me question the three distinct pitches thing
I think you might be capturing some pitch f/x park effects and I still question whether Garcia has the ability to command three distinct fastballs all at the same speed. My gut tells me no but I’ve been wrong before.
Personally, I think he throws a two-seam fastball and a cut fastball. I don’t think he has a true FF but this is just based on what I saw in the minors and when watching him this year. It’s all very subjective.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
SSS
Post quality becomes predictive after 50 posts
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
by mysterui on Jun 24, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
His wPQA so far has been excellent, though.
We should shop him to other blogs while his value is highest.
.
.
.
j/k
I'm out of champagna. How about some 7-Up and Mad Dog 20/20?
by The Continental on Jun 24, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
we can't
his screenname locks him into the local franchise.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 24, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I know
the “vivael” has some connections, but if we do a package deal of vivaelpujols and Albert to the right team, we could get a nice return.
by WyoCardsFan on Jun 24, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we need to consider a long-term deal...
before free-agency. I don’t think we can afford to risk losing VEP.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on Jun 24, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
is he represented by Longoria's guys?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 24, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we need to negotiate behind closed doors...
VEP could you find somewhere else to be while we straighten this contract thing out?
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on Jun 24, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
He's said that he needs VEB to prove that it wants to stay competitive, though
Maybe we should trade for Carson Cistulli
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
No, I want Tango, and for 120 million dollars
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
And we have to give up a promising young poster to get him...
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
This will cause BCB to react to keep the base happy
They’ll probably sign Jeff Gordon or something to more years and more annual value.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Jun 24, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
zoomzoom's young... He can type well
But I’m not sure of his ability to stay on Thursdays
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
I would like to see Jamie be able to get better control of his curveball
And be able to throw when he is behind the count
For god's sake
let’s let the boy get through his first year! heh.
Wow and this kid is only 23?
Man i hope he shoulder holds up…great post VEP!
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
That guy we gave a lot of money in the offseason to protect albert is dead to me...DEAD TO ME
Brilliant
Thank you for the time and insight.
So, you figure Garcia can keep this up?
by madridbend on Jun 24, 2010 10:35 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Brilliant
Thank you for the time and insight.
So, you figure Garcia can keep this up?
by madridbend on Jun 24, 2010 10:35 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
My concern...
is that behind in the count he goes to a FB 60% of the time, and ahead he goes to a breaking pitch 60% of the time. If hitters start sitting on these pitches will it affect his performance? Or is there to much difference between the slider/curve and his four/two-seam fastballs?
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
I think there is a pretty big difference between the slider and the curve
And there is probably not that big of a difference between the fastballs.
Either way, a 60/40 split isn’t so extreme that you have to worry about him being predictable. That’s nearly a coinflip. Most pitchers are actually a lot more predictable than that.
I agree with Flim that I would like to see him be able to throw the curveball early on the count more if he can get better command of it.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought the same on the SL/CU...
the FB concerns me still, as you said the FT and FF might be the same pitch. Obviously you can’t argue with the results thus far, but I am not convinced that the FB thing won’t come back to haunt him. He’s half again as likely to throw a FT/FF (that may be the same pitch) as he is to throw something with more movement. He throws the cutter another 15% of the time…meaning you can sit on a fastball speed 75% of the time when Jaime is behind…though the movement on the cutter might make the extra 15% a non-issue.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on Jun 24, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Right but I'm saying that "sitting on fastball speed 75% of the time when Jaime is behind"
Isn’t that much different than with most pitchers. Last year, even Wainwright threw a fastball 60% of the time when down in the count, and he’s the poster boy for having command of offspeed pitches. And with the vary degrees of movement and above average velocity, I’d bet his fastball is harder to square up
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Gotcha...
I assumed the FB was more likely in unfavorable counts…just not that likely.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on Jun 24, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Also,
It isn’t as though those 60% of pitches are just being railed down the heart of the plate.
I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons
by hazel on Jun 24, 2010 2:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Most pitchers
This is what would be nice to know. Seeing 60%, for me, caused the exact opposite reaction of cardsfanbub because 60% seemed low to me. Each of us had a kneejerk reaction without knowing what is common or average amongst MLB pitchers.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
soccer and neverending tennis continue
jump on over if you wish
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2010/6/23/1532040/june-23-other-sports-morning-chat
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
WE HAVE A WINNER!
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 24, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I heart Pitch F/X posts
This is great work VEP. Q: What are the inputs to your clustering algorithm for pitch classification? Movement + velo? Do you have a good link for those who want to look under the hood of this algorithm?
h_movement, v_movement and velo yeah
Here’s the wiki link to K-Means and here’s the clustering function I used in R.
http://stat.ethz.ch/R-manual/R-patched/library/stats/html/kmeans.html
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Sweet
I read somewhere that you can derive something approximating spin from the pitch f/x data, and if you scatter movements vs. spin, the clusters really tighten up. Never tried it myself but it sounds cool.
When I read this analysis it almost seems like Jaime should be even BETTER than he has been. If he can develop more consistent command, and take advantage of Dunc and Yadi’s collective wisdom for managing that repertoire, he could really develop into something special.
by Andyfantastic on Jun 24, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
His repretoire reminds me of Adam and Carpenter
a tick slower in velocity but with a huge assortment of pitches. I don’t think he’ll be an ace (Carp and Adam have better control than Jaime) but he should be a very good pitcher (FIP below 4.00) for some time.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
IIRC...
Jaime was always projected as a #3 with #2 potential. He now looks like a #2 with ace potential…color me very happy!!!
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on Jun 24, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
happy coloring
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Watching Jaime pitch,
I have often wondered how he has done so well with the, relatively, poor control he’s shown. He seems to throw a LOT of pitches into the dirt (at about 55-58’), or way up and outside to the RHH. He’s young, yet, but not just starting to pitch, so, can control be learned? I would imagine somewhat, but, what, realistically, are his chances of improving to near Carp/Waino levels of control?
by ArkansasTravs on Jun 24, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
The one thing I’ve been most impressed with is his command and it’s surprising to me that the walk rate is what it is. He knows where all his pitches are going and I think he tries to bury those pitches in the dirt more than it just gets away from him.
Not afraid to nitpick
Well, I haven't looked closely at his stats, etc.,
but, just watching, it seems there are a lot of pitches up and away from right handers, way up and away. And, on his “for effect” pitches in the dirt, too many are so short that the batter can easily lay off. Don’t get me wrong, I like what he’s doing. I just feel his biggest weakness right now is control (thus leading to too many walks, too high a pitch count, too few innings pitched) and wonder how much improvement we might hope for/expect in that regards.
by ArkansasTravs on Jun 24, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
well, he said within the last few days
that his fastball moves so much and he was throwing for corners, and that was a problem because the ball would move out of the zone too much. now, the last two starts, he’s apparently throwing the fastball over the plate and letting its movement take it to the corners.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
10@10
- with Barry Weinberg is funny.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
the heck, sbn. that should read #4
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 24, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I enjoyed this:
Some voters even like fancier things — the caviar, if you will, of baseball statistics, right down to the, ahem, refined palate it sometimes takes to swallow these numbers.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
i am still upset that volquez served his 50 games while on the DL
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
am i the only one who would rather have Waino than Carpenter in Game 7 of the World Series?
there’s just something about Waino where I absolutely know I’m getting a great start and with Carp its not that way always
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 24, 2010 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
i agree with this and I think this season's final numbers will reflect it
last year, I believe, Carp had a better season, but I think the torch has been passed
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 24, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
carp, still an elite pitcher, is starting to show the first signs of decline. waino is just hitting his peak and may even be getting better. waino is probably going to have an amazing career. definitely better than carp’s if he can stay healthy. he’s gotta win a CYA at some point, which i will not hesitate to point out again that i was predicting mid-2007
honestly, i see some of the same things in jaime. if he can improve his control, which i think is highly possible, he’s an elite pitcher in the making
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
to me it doesn't matter
does it for you?
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 24, 2010 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Hahaha I'm not sure if anyone else read this
This is ESPN’s preview of tonight’s game. In the second sentence of the whole piece, the author inexplicably calls the Blue Jays’ offense “punchless” and also cites Wainwright’s 3-4 record with a 2.78 ERA in 8 road starts as unsuccessful. I assume he’s just using the W-L.
To be honest about your original comment, it’s hard to say. Carp turned in one of the most dominant postseason pitching outings I’ve ever seen in Game 3 of the WS, but he’s also getting older and Wainwright is still in his 20s. It would be a good dilemma to have. How about start Carp, tell him to go all-out for 5 innings, then bring in Wainwright?
by jd is legend on Jun 24, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
interesting strategy but not unheard of
remember Clemens/Pettite – wait that failed….
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 24, 2010 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
that one worked
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Waino appears more dominant this year
Carp is battling more than he has in the past. Not that the results haven’t been great, but I think I would take Carp as well.
I'd take Wainer
But I wouldn’t exactly be crying about Carp. It’s a pretty awesome problem for a team to have, deciding between those two.
by BTown Birds fan on Jun 24, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
With Waino, Carp, Jaime & Penny there is no need for a game 7
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
for the record
my favorite thing about baseball is the fact that there’s no clock. time never runs out. even down 8 runs in the bottom of the 9th with 2 out, you can still come back and win. no other sport offers that.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
i like the fact that there's always another day whether you win or lose
and fantasy baseball…. that’s always fun….
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 24, 2010 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Eduardo Sanchez to AAA
IT HAS BEGUN
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Wouldn't it make sense to trade Miller and Stock (plus more)...
to the M’s for Lee when we could just turn around a get a new Stock and Miller in one year’s time? How much more valuable is Shelby Miller than the #25 pick in the 2011 draft given what he’s done to date?
DFA Miles, Call up Cox
Isn't there something about
not being able to trade guys who were just drafted? I mean, Stock isn’t even signed yet, right?
Not only is Stock signed
but he’s hitting .203 for Quad Cities.
by Michael_68_1999 on Jun 24, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe it's one year from draft date
before they can be traded.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Why would the M's do that trade, then? They'd have the same line of reasoning.
We’d have to overpay to get Lee. I’ve heard directly from the CEO here that the Mariners would need to be overwhelmed to trade Lee. They’re fine with keeping him, if it behooves them.
Also, people overvalue what they have. Dan Ariely (Who wrote Predictably Irrational) did a study about Duke basketball tickets. Those who waited in line and got them valued them at like $1200 per ticket, while those who waited in line and DIDN’T get a ticket valued them at like $100 per ticket, when both of them had the same costs
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Yes...
but they’d get Miller without having to pay his bonus – we’d eat that. Plus we’d send them more.
DFA Miles, Call up Cox
Just to expand...
on this… You’re saying they already have Stock and Miller in the pockets for Lee (if that’s what you get with the draft picks), so we would need to start there and provide them with additional compensation for them losing his services for the rest of the year.
DFA Miles, Call up Cox
Yes
But throw in the factors that
1) People (and organizations) overvalue what they already have
and
2) Other teams will be competing for Lee as well
We’re going to have to overpay to get him
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Here's what he has been traded for:
Trade deadline 2009 – 1.5 years of Lee for Carrasco, Donald, Knapp, and Marson (Sickels’ comments from September 2009)
1) Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Grade B: Traded to Cleveland. 11-10, 4.64 with a 148/45 K/BB in 157 innings between Triple-A Lehigh Valley and Triple-A Columbus.
4) Jason Donald, SS, Grade B-: Traded to Cleveland. Hitting .238/.303/.342 between GCL Phillies, Lehigh Valley, and Columbus. Hampered by injuries this year.
8) Jason Knapp, RHP, Grade B-: Traded to Cleveland. 4.18 ERA with 123/47 K/BB in 97 innings between Lakewood and Class A Lake County. Excellent ceiling.
10) Lou Marson, C, Grade C+: Traded to Cleveland. Hitting .279/.359/.352 between Lehigh Valley and Columbus. Good glove, but I doubt he’ll hit enough to be a starter.
2010 offseason – 1 year of Lee for Ramirez, Aumont, and Gillies (Sickels’ comments from December 2009)
3) Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Grade B-: High upside arm acquired from the Mariners but I worry about his durability and mechanics.
4) J.C. Ramirez, RHP, Grade B-: Another high upside arm acquired from the Mariners. High Desert hurt his numbers. I’ve always liked him better than the numbers indicate I should, and I think a breakout is possible in 2010.
8) Tyson Gillies, OF, Grade C+: Draws walks, steals bases with outstanding speed, good glove, fun to watch. Most of his power came at High Desert; Double-A production could raise him to a B- or even a B. Could rank as high as fifth if you want to value his polish over pure upside of Gose, Valle, and Santana.
2010 deadline .5 years of Lee for Miller, Stock(Sickels’ comments from December 2009)
1) Shelby Miller, RHP, Grade B: I love the ceiling, but we need to see how he adapts to pro ball, if he can stay healthy, etc. etc.
4) Robert Stock, C, Grade B-: I preferred him as a pitcher in college, but letting him hit makes sense: if he makes it, you have a power-hitting catcher with good defense. If he doesn’t hit, you just move him back to the mound. Could be one of the best catching prospects in the game by July.
7) Allen Craig, OF, Grade B-: I really like the bat, just needs to play
OR
6) Eduardo Sanchez, RHP, Grade B-: Underrated power arm needs more attention, could be a major league closer if command sharpens a bit more.
OR
9) Jon Jay, OF, Grade C+: I just like the guy. Always seems to rip the ball when I see him. I’d love to have him as a fourth outfielder.
Don’t these packages all look similar? And we’d be getting the least valuable version of Lee b/c we’d only have him for half a year.
DFA Miles, Call up Cox
The Cards also bear the risk of. . .
(A) Lee suffering an injury that makes it unikely that any team will sign him and give up the picks. . .
(B) Those picks being worth Miller and Stock. Miller was a #25 pick. If a bottom-half (record-wise) team signs Lee, you get picks 37 + 62 or something, not 25 + 37.
© What is the plus-more?
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jun 24, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
SBN'd by copyright notice. .
Also, plus:
(d) the risk of signing those draft picks
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jun 24, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
mysterui,
we need you to spread a few rumors about Lee around the organization, so they will be more willing to trade him and for less. Just tell a secretary that Lee assaulted you in the parking lot or something. Make sure it’s a secretary a) that works for a prominent FO member, b) that enjoys gossip, and c) that exagerates. Threaten the Mariners that if they don’t trade Lee to the Cards for Skip Schumaker, straight up, there will be a lawsuit on their hands. Sure, your credibility and freedom could be at stake, but it is a small price to pay for the good of Cardinal Nation.
Get it done!
RFL for GG!
I don't see why Lee would be a target for this team...
We already have 2 ace starters (one more than most teams), and 2 #2-3 pitchers (if Penny comes back healthy). Do we not already have potentially the best playoff rotation as is? I don’t see a team with a better 1-2-3 than the Cards. The only place this team could significantly upgrade is in the MIF, (and I still have faith in Lopez, Schu and Ryan) or at the back end of the rotation…shouldn’t have to give up much to improve here. It would be nice to pick up a 5th starter that could be a dominant reliever in the playoffs.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
There's no where else to improve...
The middle infield is the obvious problem, but it doesn’t seem possible to get a guaranteed 1-2 win upgrade on Schumaker. We could acquire Kelly Johnson, but he will likely regress, and then if Ryan goes back into the tank we’ll be forced to play Lopez at short b/c Johnson will be starting every day at second.
Assuming replacement level pitching every fifth day from here on out (Hawksworth, Ottavino, Walters, Lohse), and assuming a half year of Lee would be worth 3.5 wins, this is a major upgrade.
DFA Miles, Call up Cox
Perhaps our MIF...
upgrade is down in Memphis awaiting a shot.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
brian roberts
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
That guy we gave a lot of money in the offseason to protect albert is dead to me...DEAD TO ME
Both.
He’s on the 60-day DL and has a .464 OPS. He is also 32, which is not a good age for second basemen.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
i agree with you - we don't need upgrades anywhere (MIF) to win the division, imo
considering penny and/or lohse will return, but lee would be a half-year rental to go for the title, and with carp, waino, and lee in the rotation we’d likely be favorites in any playoff matchup. then lee signs with the yanks and we get draft picks, albeit lower than we would like. if the yanks also sign crawford or werth, which team would get their one pick – is lee ranked higher than those two outfielders? plus we still have our own first-round pick, and it is considered to be a deeper draft. the key is to get our haul of picks this year signed – with matias and the qb supp pick, we would have some upside arms in the org to alleviate the pain of losing miller.
lee has 70-something to 4 k/bb!!
kind of funny story, lee owns a hunting lodge with his dad, and a guy who hunts with the dad says, according to the dad, the lee turnaround after getting sent down by the indians was due to cliff’s fear he was finished if he didn’t get it together (he knew he had the stuff), and would then have to get a “real” job – i guess that’s a pretty good motivator.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
we're not goddamn losing miller
stop giving up 6 years of an elite prospect for 4 months of a starting pitcher in one of the strongest pitching staffs in baseball
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jun 24, 2010 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
don't worry, it's not my decision
i think you’re safe.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
suddenly, from behind his cardball mask, john mozeliak issues a menacing laugh
by DanUpBaby on Jun 24, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
hahaha!
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
If that turns out to be true,
I don’t know what I’ll do next.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 24, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
brian roberts
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
That guy we gave a lot of money in the offseason to protect albert is dead to me...DEAD TO ME
why is everyone trading shelby miller?
stop trading shelby miller!
we could just turn around a get a new Stock and Miller in one year’s time?
or we could have two shelby millers (though, unlikely that a talent like him falls to us again) in a year’s time!
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jun 24, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I would rather have two Shelby Millers.
And I agree with you about whether we’d have a talent of his caliber fall to us next season, or the next. With the forthcoming Pujols extension, we need as many Shelby Miller types as we can get and cannot really afford that many Lee types, if any, given Lee’s forthcoming financial commitment.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
If the Reds would just suck...
like their supposed to we could sleepwalk through the season and be content with Waino-Carp in October. This might be the year when it’s worthwhile to wait until the very last minute to make any deal.
DFA Miles, Call up Cox
im reccing all these demands to stop trading shelby miller
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
Unless it's for Hanley Ramirez
In which case peace out Shelby and any other potential big leaguer that could possibly be in our system.
Not afraid to nitpick
and then switch him to 2B
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Stock is pretty much a raw relief prospect at this point
He didn’t hit in college and he’s really not hitting now. Yeah it’s still too early to pull the plug on him being a position prospect, but it definitely doesn’t look promising.
Not afraid to nitpick
He's a 20-year-old catching prospect...
with a good eye, good defense, and a legitimate back-up plan as a pitcher if he doesn’t hit. Not saying he’s a world beater, but isn’t he comparable in value to Knapp, Donald, Ramirez, and Gillies?
DFA Miles, Call up Cox
Not really
He’s a 20 year old catching prospect who seemingly can’t hit in A-ball—-.203 .317 .272!—-and didn’t hit in college. Put it this way, I’d rather have Reifer, Salas or Sanchez over Stock…
Not afraid to nitpick
i wouldn't part with miller yet
irrational love, but we could be looking at Dan Haren 2.0 here….. (even if Lee gives us one good season unlike Mulder)
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 24, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Reyes?
im drawing a blank here
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 24, 2010 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
the next mark prior, out of the tom house stable at usc
pitched a 1-hitter against the white sox – a thome homer to lose 1-0. all downhill from there – anthony reyes, traded to the indians for someone we released, i believe. might still be in their org, possibly injured, basically disappeared and done.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
don't forget game 1 of the WS
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker on Jason Motte
Austin Wilson, please don't be a tease!
ah yes, my bad
credit where credit is due. that was huge, as was the apu oppo off verlander that showed we meant business. soup was big in those days too.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
yeh i don't see this happening
but i don’t want to trade for 4 months of Cliff Lee
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 25, 2010 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions
one of the best posts on pitch f/x I've read
I’m getting more and more interested in these. Jaime looks like a real pitching wizard, even if he doesn’t have that many different pitches he definitely knows what he’s doing (with a lot of help from Yadi of course, and it doesn’t hurt to have Duncan as a mentor!).
as for this: “Nobody seemed to entertain the idea of Jaime actually winning the job out of Spring Training as nobody thought the Cardinals were crazy enough to put a pitcher just coming off of Tommy John surgery and with little experience in the high minors in the rotation of a contending team.”
I was pretty gung ho about him being the fifth starter after I saw him pitch in spring training twice. He just looked like an intense competitor, really wanted the starter role, and of course, he had tons of movement and control over his pitches so I was sold on the guy pretty fast.
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 1:07 PM EDT reply actions
sliders do what they want
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Only if Prince Fielder's gravitational pull is affecting them.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jun 24, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Is that why I've been so tired lately?
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 24, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
more Boggs stuff I didn't transcribe.
"I was working out and felt a little bit of a rumble, but Skip Schumaker was lifting so much weight in there I figured he just dripped a weight. Come to find out it was an earthquake, so that was pretty cool." link
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
not a genius here, but
I also was one of those (maybe few of us, maybe not) who ‘predicted’ that Garcia would get first shot at the fifth starter role. If for no other reason than he was a lefty, and even if he tanked the first three or four starts, there were back-up options.
And, all the graphs and analyses are fine, I guess, (although to me it borders on taking the peanuts out of s**t) what has been said little is the determination and aplomb that the kid has on the mound. He drafts from Waino and Carp in that regard: add talent to that and you get success. Jaime has been such a plus, and if he stays healthy should continue to be.
Penny has the same kind of grit, and it occurred to me that his return (status of that I don’t know) is the biggest factor re even entertaining an expensive rental like Lee.
Lastly, and for yet another time, I spout that the fix our pitching staff needs, such as it does, is two words: John Smoltz. Preferably as a co-closer with the bearded one, but even as a fifth starter.
my worry with these studies (which I find to be very interesting)
is if it is done very well, what if scouts from other teams develop some kind of hitting plan against the pitcher. but I suppose that is a concern anyway since they have their own systems of trying to figure out how to hit a pitcher.
I too was very impressed by Jaime’s competitiveness, he fits right in with Carp and Waino
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't really think this adds much on the player level
It helps us understand what he does and why he is good, but it doesn’t really give anyone a plan to beat him. Scouts already know what he’s throwing when anyway, we just get to put quantifiable numbers on it, but that doesn’t help a player to know the ball “rises” 8 inches vs. 6 or whatever.
Not afraid to nitpick
yeah
they still have to be able to hit it
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I still don't see all the Smoltz appeal
I would definitely not want him as a closer, even if by committee. as a fifth starter, I see marginal worth there either. he’s probably not that much better than Suppan at this point in his life.
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
At this point he's retired and out of shape
But had he gotten back into shape to begin the year, he almost certainly would have been better. 3.84 xFIP last year with half of it being in the AL.
Not afraid to nitpick
well
yeah if he started out the year planning on being on a team and was signed, etc. he’d be better than Suppan. as a closer, I dunno. it would be like having another Franklin I guess.
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
jaime definitely has composure
that’s what’s been most impressive to me, also.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
and most importantly
control over his pitches. It was cool to hear that he doesn’t throw certain pitches as often as others since he doesn’t have as good command on them
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
anyone see how the dodgers lost last night?
certainly some schadenfreude here (despite the fact ely pitched), considering our baserunning blunders this year. they were down 2-1 in the ninth, runners on 1st and 2nd no outs, and kemp gets picked off second by fuentes. then they have first and second again, this time two outs, and a base hit scores reed johnson easily to tie it up – except he didn’t actually score, because while jogging home martin decides to round second too far and gets tug out before johnson touches the plate, ending the game.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
it's like ain't
i think i always use it after “get” or “got”, and tagged the rest of the time. i’m bad, i know.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'm so glad that we didn't get that guy
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
For reference
He lifts his leg straight up, puts it straight down to just above the ground in front of the rubber, and then does a silly leaping spin move to second base. Total nonsense.
But how is it a balk?
It’s ugly, but he does step ahead of the throw and the movement of his front leg is just vertical.
sure looked like it, as i hadn't seen it before
but not according to torre. in his presser after the game, he explained how they went over that move with the whole team before the series started just so that wouldn’t happen. apparently it’s a move he’s really worked to refine, and the only one who does it just so – it appears he does go toward home plate before spinning, but at that point he has already disengaged from the rubber.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
He doesn't disengage from the rubber
It’s just a modified spin move.
To disengage from the rubber he would have to step off and back toward 2B.
I’m still wondering about its legality.
His front foot didn’t seem to go back over the rubber, just up and down, so it’s not illegal in that way.
However…
By the way, what do you think of Jaime's current mechanics?
I remember reading a post from you on him a while ago and it was very negative (this was written before the surgery IIRC). Have his mechanics changed, has your opinoin changed?
by vivaelpujols on Jun 24, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
They must have cleared the move with the umps beforehand
Because I would freak if I saw it the first time.
I tried to solicit you with a fan shot, did it work yet?
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
yeah, it's been ruled legit
just like that pitcher who came set twice from the stretch, but since that is his normal move and he repeats it every time it was ruled no balk, no attempt to deceive the runner.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
you don't have to step back to disengage
in fact you never do on spin moves to second – you disengage from the front, turning your foot.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
ot: Japan ftw
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I really want to visit there
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
ask DanUp
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
haha
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I would have but he wasn't at VEB Day :(
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Tonight's Lineup via FSN tweet
Lopez SS
Holliday LF
Pujols 1B
Rasmus CF
Freese 3B
Winn RF
Molina C
Schumaker DH
Miles 2B
Wainwright P
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
Too quick with post
Ludwick’s left calf feeling better. Should be available for PH
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
hopefully, first inning
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Skip as DH?
heh
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
no boog at short :(
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
that was my only condolence
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
consolation?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I think condolence fits pretty well in this situation
Cardinals Baseball 2010: Why have only one 25th man when you can have four?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Jun 24, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Miles is that bad
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
So our DHs on this trip have been Stav and Skip?
Tony does realize the H stands for “hitter” right?
by jd is legend on Jun 24, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
He thought the D stood for "Professional" which is more worrying
Don't confuse me with the other guy, because I'm not him and he isn't me.
it's funny when Randy Winn makes your other DH's look like horrible options
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
It's too bad Luddy's a little banged up
We could put Winn in LF and DH Holliday
by jd is legend on Jun 24, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
I would use Lopez as DH I think
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
This implies TLR thinks Miles is better at 2B than Schu
unless i’m missing something (injury/1/2 day of rest for a guy who doesn’t play everyday)
by YesWeOquendo on Jun 24, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
that's immediately what i thought
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
He realized how badly VEB would blow up if the lineup had a line in it that read "Miles DH"
by jd is legend on Jun 24, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Not it doesn’t. TLR has already said that he is going to use the DH to rest some guys. Wouldn’t this just be an example of that?
...which is a very reasonable strategy that he didn't use when Stav started 2 games at DH
I don’t really mind the bench guy getting the start at 2B and Skip as DH, I do mind the bench guy having a 19 OPS+ over 2009-2010.
Not afraid to nitpick
Yesss
I’ve finally stopped worrying and have learned to love Miles in the lineup. I am intrigued by how badly one can hit and still remain in someone’s eyes, a major league caliber player.
Not afraid to nitpick
gives you hope, right?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
We're watching one of the worst players in history here
And I get to say that without hyperbole.
Not afraid to nitpick
At least Johnny LeMaster had the excuse...
of playing back when people thought players like Johnny LeMaster were worthy of playing. Nowadays there’s no excuse for Miles.
DFA Miles, Call up Cox
And even then
Miles is currently rocking a 19 OPS+ for 2009-2010. We’re in historic territory for non-catchers here. Wainwright’s career OPS+ is 59
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Jun 24, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
f'n horrible!
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
you could do that, is what i'm saying about hope.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Adam is going to have to win this game by himself.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Lopez is a huge step down from Ryan at short...
Miles is a huge step down from Lopez at second
Skip is a huge step down from Craig at DH
That’s three positions that could easily be upgraded. And we’re in a real race with Cincy.
Craig should have been brought up for interleague and given the DH spot everyday.
DFA Miles, Call up Cox
Why Not?
1. Lopez 2B
2. Holliday LF
3. Pujols 1B
4. Rasmus CF
5. Freese 3B
6. Winn RF
7. Craig DH
8. Molina C
9. Ryan SS
Tha lineup is possible, and better offensively and defensively. Or you could put Greene at 2B and in the 7 hole, put Lopez at DH. Again, better offensively and defensively. Or you could put Winn in LF, Jay in RF, and shift Holliday to DH, having essentially three CFs in the outfield. Actually, I could go on like this all day, so I’m just gonna stop now.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jun 24, 2010 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds like runs to me!
I mean, c’mon, we have three leadoff men in this lineup. Get out your brooms! SWEEP! SWEEP!
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
TLR doesn't do sweeps
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
so cards bench is
Larue
Winn
Stavino
Miles
Lopez (who’s pretty much a starter)
ugh, and that one espn guy was making fun of our bench earlier this season??
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 3:55 PM EDT reply actions
I had a fanpost about it
two weeks ago Old Bench vs. New Bench.
FWIW — Winn has been a plus. So we essentially have a 22 man roster
"They're so stunned they didn't even boo!"
John Rooney 5/3/10 referring to Philly fans on Cards 5-run 7th inning
i kind of like winn
he’s been hitting, he plays good defense and he’s a good baserunner
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Winn has been a winner so far
I don’t mind him
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
Winn has been nice. Miles, Stav, and Larue are just awful though
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 24, 2010 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't have a problem with stache....
he is what he is, a veteran back up catcher, and Carp’s bff.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
damnit, you're right
why are there multiple superfluous ’y’s with the last name nix!
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
don't they both have useless Y's?
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Yes
Maybe Cla Meredith can broker a deal with one of them to get his name fixed up.
by cloistermaximus on Jun 24, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
So I was just reading the sports page of my daily local.
Ned Yost is the batting coach for the rookie league, short season Helena Brewers. Is it just me, or is that a huge slap in the face?
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
I thought he got fired,
but upon further digging, he must be his son.
I’ll shut up.
It must be a great honor for someone so young to have such a position in the prestigious Brewers organization.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Also, Dave Concepcion.
"Prestigious"? It's not exactly the sixth best organization in baseball....
Don't confuse me with the other guy, because I'm not him and he isn't me.
by chalk on Jun 24, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
even the internet realises it has no business existing.
Don't confuse me with the other guy, because I'm not him and he isn't me.
That's weird
considering there’s little content worth reading on there.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
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