Designated Hitters

…independently conclude that both decisions are bad ones, right?

I don’t think they can be considered completely separate.

a player can play and be productive for 162 games, as long as he isn’t injured and his body is up to the task.

Pitchers and catchers obviously fatigue differently because of their more demanding positions, but other than those players I don’t see anything necessarily wrong with a position player playing every game. On the other hand, I think a lot of the off days that players receive are for actual twists, jams, and other nagging problems.

This is just my view: I don’t think rest is necessarily good for its own sake, and this is just my opinion based on the facts that I know. I’m not sure it’s really a falsifiable position either, given that we never really get the whole story on most player injuries.

A “he’s been getting lucky” player is different from a streaking player #1, and usually by the time you can actually recognize that a player is streaking, the streak is already over.

He had a lucky first half, based on all the peripherals

Sold high on his performance, got a decent return, and he imploded in the second half

That’s if you believe that a player being hot actually means nothing, which is a whole different matter.

Not because he is good.

is that his results are not likely to continue because he has been incredibly lucky. Thus, luck does matter.

Yes it does. It’s just a fact. You are simply lying to yourself if you say luck doesn’t matter how you make your decisions going forward. We have undeniable quantitative facts that Stavinoha has had unsustainable luck contribute to his “results” so far that completely color how we should view what his contribution will be the rest of the season.

If we are going to be having Stav DH more than one game, it would have made more sense to switch out Stav for Craig.

Also Stav’s middling OPS despite ludicrous luck (.414 BABIP) and his low line drive percent and poor plate discipline numbers, all of which suggest that Craig is a much better hitter? Or is that not good enough for you? Perhaps you could take a look at Stav’s career stats, which you may be forced to acknowledge just aren’t that great?

The issue at hand is, using past results, which player is more likely to be useful to the Cardinals going forward… Stavinoha or Craig? We’re dealing with probabilities here, and when you’re dealing w/ baseball probabilities you are better off using bigger sets of data than small.

In your case, you’re putting more stock in Stavinoha’s 55 PA and Craig’s 21 PA this season than you should. Those are pitifully small samples that are subject to all kinds of funky luck in one direction or the other. In his 55 PA, Stav has whiffed an insane percentage of the time and never walks indicating the same poor plate discipline he’s always shown. He’s hitting a ton of GBs and FBs. And despite all this his numbers have been good. You say “Well, he’s just performing.” And I say no… no he’s not. He’s been fortunate. His GB’s have found holes and his FB’s have fallen safely to the ground. That’s not skill, that’s not performance, that’s fortune. I tip my cap to the guy, but actual results show a guy whose carriage is minutes from turning into a pumpkin.