Two Left-Handers
by DanUpBaby on Jun 17, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
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PrintDennys Reyes's line last night: 0.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER. His batting average against in June—this is real—is .833. More ways to put it: he's recorded two outs in 12 chances; he's pitched two thirds of an inning across five games. You could stretch his ineffectiveness in June across a hundred different methods of displaying a pitcher's statistics, and they would all be incredible. And his ERA is 3.63.
His 2010 season is starting to remind me of another restaurant-themed LOOGY's swan song; it's like Ray King 2005 Redux. King, to his credit, still got left-handers out in 2005; he held them to a .673 OPS, against a right-handed OPS of .981. But his BABIP, .250 in 2004, bounced above .300 in 2005, and his WHIP—I've always felt WHIP was most evocative for specialist relievers —bounced with it; in his 77 games he recorded just 40 innings pitched. His ERA was 3.38, but his career as a Cardinal cult hero was over.
Reyes has a longer run as a successful specialist to his name, but like King his ERA is proof only of the stat's ineffectiveness in tracking the career of a guy who is often asked to pitch to one batter a night.
But if you had to pick one left-handed pitcher who only confirmed his recent control problems last night it had to be Reyes, right? Jaime Garcia got stiffed on one of his two best starts of the year, which sucks, but it was more important in the long slog of the season to see him recover from control problems that have hidden behind his impeccable run-prevention since May. His BB/9 in that timeframe had crept near five, but his performance last night brought it back down toward earth.
Garcia's start in 2010 has earned a lot of the qualifiers that come with being a serious baseball fan in 2010—his peripherals are out of line, he's stranded more baserunners than could be reasonably expected, he's looked good but not Maddux-ERA good. And they're all right. But we're two weeks into June and he's still doing it; it doesn't mean that the regression isn't coming, because it waits for no man, but these two-and-a-half months are something worth celebrating, and remembering, and wherever his ERA ends the season it'll still have been the most memorable start to a Cardinals pitching career since Adam Wainwright ended up in the back of the bullpen out of Spring Training. Come out for the curtain call, Jaime—you've even gotten Mike Shannon to pronounce your name correctly.
As to Matt Holliday struggling in another runners-on situation, the obverse is true. Unless you've discovered a heretofore uncovered split in his MLB career that suggests this is the real Matt Holliday, or the XMO cam has noticed him peeing his pants with RISP, this isn't going to keep happening. But we're two weeks into June and it won't stop happening; it's a part of the fabric of the season, a cautionary tale on the 2010 Cardinals World Series Commemorative DVD. That's part of what made La Russa's long-awaited lineup rejiggering so exciting to me—it can't change what's happened to this point, but it can minimize the strength of the narrative from this point forward.
At least, that was my thought at the time.
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I have discovered such a split:
Holliday (career – 1,179 PAs) with RISP: .291/.386/.483
Holliday (career – 2,728 PAs) w/o RISP: .326/.386/.559
Doubt this is predictive…
How can a team with the best outfield in baseball, the best starting trio in baseball, a decent bullpen/closer, and Albert Pujols not be better than this?
DFA Miles, Call up Cox
Holliday hitting worse with runners on IS unusual and noteworthy,
and I think it’s been noted here before, for two reasons:
1) Hitters in general hit better with RISP and men on the bases (presumably, because there’s more pressure on the pitcher, most pitchers throw better from the windup than the stretch, defensive positioning is affected by having men on base, and the pitcher is more keen to challenge the hitter and less flexible in terms of offering IBBs etc in unfavourable matchups). So to hit WORSE than your career line is unusual.
2) This significantly affects Holliday’s value. If the split is “real” (i.e. not luck affected, and he really is slightly worse for whatever reason at hitting with runners on) it’s pretty clear that it hurts his overall value. Any walk or hit is obviously more valuable with runners on the bases, so if a greater % than normal of Holliday’s walks/hits are made with the bases empty, that’s a bad thing.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 17, 2010 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Is there any way
To get a career home/road RISP split for him?
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
by giveml on Jun 17, 2010 10:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
just check hi oakland record
risp or no-risp
other than his quick start with the cards last year, this is who he has been for about a year
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
I don't think that's a fair way to look at it, FWIW
you can’t just ignore the fact he hit like DiMaggio for two and a half months over the course of six or seven months of baseball and say “that’s who he’s been”. He’s a traditionally slow starter anyhow.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 6:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you
but I am also reluctant to put much stock in what a player does during a salary drive. In my mind Holiday still has to prove he is an elite player away from Coors Field. For example, while he managed to post a sizzling 1.339 OPS in his first 59 PAs at Busch, in his last 221 PAs at home he has posted a .273/.385/.455 line for a .839 OPS . Obviously, all of these numbers are small samples and we don’t really know what will happen in the future.
Nevertheless, I don’t think that is too far from what I would project for him going forward. After all, he is a career .810 OPS hitter away from Coors and .050 of OPS is the typical home field delta, so an .860 OPS at home sounds at least reasonable as a projection. I don’t think he will be able to sustain the .250 point delta from Colorado
I said this during all the heated discussion surrounding the trade last year, but the only skill I am pretty certain he possesses is OBP. I hope I am wrong and he can be an elite player, but I still fear we have hamstrung the team for the next several years by paying him to be a player he will never be.
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
You're kind of preaching to the converted
in that I have my own personal doubts about how well holliday will do as he ages. I’m not sure I quite agree with the “bad hitter away from Coors” hypothesis, though.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know how
anyone can make a fact-based argument that any player with a significant SLG has ever been close to as good either before or after playing with the Rockies. Larry Walker’s age 27 season is about the only thing close. I hope Holliday can do it, but if he doesn’t do it what will be the reason?
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
Penis germs.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
This team simply refuses to elevate
Good teams sweep bad teams. It was pretty disappointing not to get a W last night. Not counting the two game series against Washington, the only sweep we have so far was Atlanta. It sometimes feels that we are holding ourselves back.
So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)
by Titus Pullo on Jun 17, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
We are our own worst enemy.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 17, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't understand how this supports
Holliday slashing .189/.286/.243 for a .529 OPS with RISP this season as being the “real” Holliday. Even with his career splits, we should expect him to do much, much better with RISP going forward.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
we should
but the point that he is (for his career) unusually poor with RISP is a valid and interesting one. I doubt Guayzimi was genuinely suggesting that his current 2010 line was predictive for him going forward.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 17, 2010 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Forgive me
I read Dan’s line, “Unless you’ve discovered a heretofore uncovered split in his MLB career that suggests this is the real Matt Holliday…” and took “this” to mean the 2010 .524 OPS with RISP Matt Holliiday. And then I read Guayzimi’s statement that he has “discovered such a split.” I therefore thought I would make clear just how big the 2010 disparity is when it comes to Holliday and RISP. He has been incredibly horrendous in this situtation during 2010, but I don’t think any of us should suspect that he will continue to be through season’s (or contract’s) end.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
That's true...
but players that have tendencies some times take those tendencies and plunge over the cliff with them. It’s like Miles popping up or Soup giving up a dinger – you don’t expect it every time, but it’s something that they tend to do.
DFA Miles, Call up Cox
Tendancies.
Then, I would hope that Holliday gets back to tending to OPS about .870 with RISP.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Maybe whatever...
“thing” that causes him to underperform with RISP (if such a thing actually exists) is exacerbated by his contract, the expectations, the pressure of hitting alongside Pujols, his taking one off the stones and blowing our postseason, etc…
The 101 point RISP deficit might just indicate the presence of something that can blow up spectacularly if the right environmental conditions are applied.
DFA Miles, Call up Cox
It is difficult to come to any sort of conclusion.
There’s no question that signing a $120MM contract brings with it the pressure of expectations. He now has a $17MM price tag hanging from him with every play for the next seven years. What’s more, he was billed by his manager and his agent as the “protection” for Pujols that the Cardinals wanted and needed (even though the best bodyguard imaginable in terms of results is probably Ryan F. Ludwick). With the price tage and the salesmanship, people expect him to produce and he isn’t. I have no doubt that Holliday is pressing and hope that batting second perhaps allows him to free his mind and simply take PAs like Matt Holliday, not worrying about batting cleanup behind Pujols.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
#2 is the perfect spot for him
5 and 6 are, possibly, the worst 2 spots in the lineup (although his speed makes him better suited for #5 than, say, Freese).
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
Yeah
2 is so clearly the right spot for Holliday it’s basically a no-brainer. Ludwick and especially Rasmus both look to have more pop at the moment, and Holliday is (career and going forward) likely the guy with the second-best on-base skills in the team. I’ve always said that the (no pun intended) cardinal rule of any team with Albert in it is, “thy best OBP shall always, always bat in front of Albert”. I hope they stick him at 2 permanently.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 6:59 AM EDT up reply actions
"thy best OBP shall always, always bat in front of Albert"
Can I get an Amen?
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
and maybe matt gets tripped up by the physical aspects of the situation, just like the pitchers do
i mean, maybe the presence of runners on the bases affects his ability to see the ball. you know, maybe HE has a hard time picking up the ball when a pitcher is pitching from the stretch. maybe the constant moving of the infield to hold the runner, charge the ball, etc, distracts him. just because it doesn’t happen to most batters, doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen to him.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
Possible
But the fact that he has hit worse with runners in scoring position does not necessarily mean that he actually has a problem.
Let’s just say for the purposes of this debate that a player’s OPS gap with RIPS vs. bases empty is random. If that were the case, you’d expect that a certain percentage of players would have a large split in either direct just based on chance and not by the fact that they actually are effected by the base situation. I’m sure there is some skill to hitting w/RISP, but almost all studies done have shown that it is dwarfed by random variation.
In the case of Holliday, the fact that he has hit worse with runners in scoring position in his career isn’t going to be particularly predictive, unless you can show that something about him actually changes depending on who’s on base.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Impossible to do...
without more/better splits data… For my money, I’d bet random variation, but I wouldn’t be shocked if there’s something causing the differential.
DFA Miles, Call up Cox
i agree, but
lets just say for the purpose of this debate that most major league hitters hit better with RISP than with the bases empty (and it seems like this is probably true). if that is true, then the idea that BA with RISP is mostly random variation seems less plausible.
i’m no statistician, so maybe that’s not correct. but it seems logical to me.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
I don't think that most major league hitters hit better with runners on base, at least not significantly
If you are looking at the league splits, those are going to have massive selection bias – the splits with RISP are going to more proportionally populated by guys who come up with more runners in scoring position (who are generally guys who bat in the heart of the lineup who are generally well above average hitters). The only way to really see if their is a league-wide split is to compare each hitter’s split and do a weighted average of the difference.
Even if their is a split, the randomness factor would still apply. Just based on chance, so guys will have a much lower or higher split than average.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
right, i guess i meant to say that major league hitters who hit 3-5 in the lineup probably hit better with RISP than without
maybe that’s not true. but if it is, how does that not eliminate the randomness? if everything is based on chance, then, over the course of 1000s and 1000s of at-bats, wouldn’t you expect RISP to look almost identical to bases empty?
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
Okay, I'm saying 2 things here
1) If you look at Baseball Reference’s splits, the leaguewide OPS with RISP was .21 points higher than with the bases loaded last year. That would lead you to think that hitters are better as a whole with RISP and with the bases empty.
There are two things wrong with that assumption. For one, the entire difference in that OPS number is based on walk rate. Batting average was .004 points higher and slugging was .006 points lower with RISP vs. bases empty last year. That implies that pitchers are just issuing more walks, whether intentional or unintentional.
Secondly, using a league-wide split like that is going to have selection bias for the reasons I mentioned above. You are not comparing apples to apples. One group, the guys who batted with the bases empty last year, is going to be filled disportionately with leadoff hitters, while the other group, the guys who batted with RISP last year, is going to be disportaionately filled with middle of the order guys. Middle of the order guys are better hitters than leadoff hitters, so that will artificially raise the split. In short, I don’t think there is any difference what so ever – on average – of hitters hitting with runners in scoring position vs. with the bases empty.
2) Even if there was a difference, that doesn’t mean that randomness could still not be in play. Let’s say that there really is a .20 point difference in OPS with runners in scoring position vs. bases empty. You’d still expect a bunch of hitters to hit much worse than that and a bunch of hitters to hit much better than that due to randomness. Over a large sample size it should even out, but there will still be a certain percentage of players at the extremes.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
alright, i get it. and i appreciate you explaining this.
i get that RISP vs. bases empty could be affected by nothing more than random chance. but if it is true that there is absolutely no tangible reason why a player should bat better or worse with RISP, then wouldn’t you expect, over the course of a career, for RISP numbers to look very very close to bases empty numbers, runner on first numbers, etc? like flipping a coin is chance, and you could end up with heads 87 times out of 100. but if you flip that coin 10,000 times, its going to be very close to 50/50. right? or do i just know absolutely nothing about math. i haven’t had a math class since AP calculus in high school, which was almost 10 years ago.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
and i'm saying, over the course of an individual career.
in other words, all things being equal, shouldn’t, for example, frank thomas’ career RISP OPS be nearly identical to his bases empty OPS?
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
...
but if it is true that there is absolutely no tangible reason why a player should bat better or worse with RISP, then wouldn’t you expect, over the course of a career, for RISP numbers to look very very close to bases empty numbers, runner on first numbers, etc
Yes, for most players. But some players will still have a large split just due to randomness.
Think of it like this. If you flipped 100 coins 100 times, you’d expect that most would be close to 50/50, but some would be 60/40 or even 70/30. That’s essentially what would be happening here.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
i see what you're saying.
so maybe matt holliday’s RISP numbers are just random. i choose to believe there’s something extraneous affecting the situation.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
Psychologically speaking:
The opposite is true. Anyone who is great at something, excels in situations of higher stress. If you are a great juggler, you juggle better with a thousand people watching you than alone. (See: Tony Hawk only being able to complete the 720 with a crowd.) If you are a sniper, you shoot better when you need to kill someone. This is all general of course. But people this skilled are better in pressure situations. Now, Matt has obviously been worse, leading me to believe that he has more on his mind than the current moment. But ‘choking’ from amateurs is a reality. From talented professionals it is much more of a myth.
I don't really buy that at all
You see it in golf all the time: Jean Van De Velde absolutely let the nerves get to him, Greg Norman, just this weekend Robert Garrigus completely choked on the 18th. Chris Webber never in his life would call a timeout when they had JUST gone over that they didn’t have one if it’s not the championship game. Dan Jansen fell on a straightaway. Donovan McNabb puked on the field in the Super Bowl before the 4th quarter drive. Etc, these guys very much can let the moment get to them.
Not afraid to nitpick
Jansen was dealing with his sister's death.
I wouldn’t put that one in there with the others.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
i'm not sure i'd say anyone as in everyone
such as the greatest figure skater, for example, who invariably falls in the biggest competition, or a golfer who has meltdowns on the final day.
you could say the “truly” great ones perform better under pressure, and that’s because they are more focused and the juices are flowing more freely than say in a 12-0 game, and maybe they handle it better than the pitcher, and that there are some otherwise great players who can’t really be considered “truly” great because they don’t handle the pressure as well – as in life, some are cool and calm under stress, and others are not.
i guess it comes down to semantics somewhat, and whether or not we are labeling the great marksman a great sniper before or after he makes his first live kill.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
But the pitcher is also in a position of higher stress
The batter might do better, AND the pitcher might do better.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
then you would expect status quo
and it is in the situations where the pitcher does not do better that the batter would “elevate” his numbers beyond his overall numbers.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i'm not sure. it could be a number of things - either internally or externally.
and its probably a little of both. but the reason i don’t totally buy the randomness argument is because the two situations are not the same. like we discussed above, there are a number of things that change – the IF positioning, the pitcher’s motions, the pressure of the situation…
i guess the point is, he has been really, really bad with RISP this year. whether its random or not. if its not random, hopefully moving to the 2 spot will help. if it is random, then i guess nothing will help but time.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
and btw i'm not trying to be argumentative or a math-hater
i just think that there ARE intangibles in baseball that can’t always be explained away.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
But most likely that's your
brain trying to assign patterns and find meaning when there is none.
Our minds can’t handle abstract and usually is pretty shitty at causation.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
Your face is shitty at causation
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
your mom causated all over my face!
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
My mother is a beautiful woman
She is well-educated and a lawyer. How dare you!
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Dorothy Mantooth is a SAINT
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
I'm not saying they aren't
People always confuse what math baseball guys say. They never say that intangibles don’t exist, they say that the existence of intangibles is not something that is reflected in the numbers due to random variation.
The most infuriating thing that non-saber guys do is abuse numbers to try to find causality. If you were to say that Holliday looks like a piece of shit w/RISP and he has the personality of a choker, than that would be a much strong argument than relying on numbers, in which it’s proven than the numbers don’t mean anything.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
The numbers....
They do nothing!
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:11 AM EDT up reply actions
i'd think
if holliday were a choker his OPS w/ bases empty – OPS w/ RISP would be >.060
it’s not. it’s random variation. it’s also possible that there’s bias in there somewhere. we’re also dealing with OPS which is not without it’s flaws. i’d like to see these numbers using wOBA instead of a stat that overvalues slugging in a situation where an elite hitter like holliday will often be pitched around or receive an IBB
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
if we're going to be picky about the metrics
wOBA isn’t calibrated for RISP situations; slugging seems likely to be more valuable with RISP than without.
by brackenthebox on Jun 17, 2010 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions
definitely
OPS has a similar problem, as the difference in OPS w/RISP vs bases empty is solely due to walk rate.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions
wOBA is "calibrated" for total offensive performance
weighting each outcome appropriately. OPS is merging two stats which are scaled differently. if you’re arguing for looking at slugging w/ RISP alone, that’s fine. i’d rather look at the whole picture of what a batter does. as long as you’re no advocating tossing wOBA in favor of OPS in any context
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
OPS and wOBA have similar correlation rates
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 17, 2010 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions
wOBA is calibrated for total offensive performance across all PA situations
I’m advocating refitting linear weights across all PA situations in which you have RISP. An average single might be worth 0.5 runs (pulled out of my ass) when averaged across all PAs but is worth significantly more when averaged across PAs with RISP. Walks are almost certainly going to be devalued vs. hits in RISP situations relative to non-RISP ones.
The point is, wOBA is specifically designed to model performance across an appropriately weighted sample of all types of plate appearances. It may well be a better metric than OPS in RISP situations as well, but it’s not guaranteed to be. In particular, OPS weights SLG more heavily than wOBA does, and I’m slugging is likely more important in RISP situations than it is in baseline ones.
by brackenthebox on Jun 17, 2010 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions
good point
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 17, 2010 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
i see what you're saying now
a double is more valuable with the bases loaded than empty, but if you’re going to weight each outcome according to the situation, you lose the ability to accurately compare players. even in an isolated situation like RISP. not all batters are going to have the same opportunities. seems like WPA does what you suggest pretty well. you might be able to do WPA w/ RISP, but i’m not a big fan of the stat
wOBA w/ RISP would tell me what the runner did in that situation and i could accurately compare it to other situations and other players
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jun 17, 2010 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW
this is a really good thread/sub-thread. Some tremendous stuff here and just another good reason to come to this blog…
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Chances of that 70/30 are infinitesimally small FWIW
I think you’re talking in the millions (or possibly even billions) to one, actually. Remember studying this in school years ago (as a poker player I suppose it’s somewhat in my remit, too).
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Given a set of 500 players or whatever
There are going to be guys who have weird splits. If it’s in the 99th percentile of weird randomness, you’re still going to expect to see several players with wonky splits.
Not afraid to nitpick
Very true
and IIRC Holliday only has about 2 seasons worth of RISP stats. It’s certainly VERY possible for hitters to significantly under-perform their career line/true talent over 2 seasons’ worth of hitting.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:14 AM EDT up reply actions
yes, but there are minor reasons
flyball to left with a man on 3rd, <2 out does not count against a BA if a run scores
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
That's a very good point
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:02 AM EDT up reply actions
What are these so-called studies?
I bet they don’t have any grit, desire, heart, of clutch in them.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I’m sure there is some skill to hitting w/RISP, but almost all studies done have shown that it is dwarfed by random variation.
I find it very difficult to generate a meaningful experiment/hypothesis to tease “skill” and “variation” apart here. How have these studies done it?
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:01 AM EDT up reply actions
because hardly any of those things are ever "on" in sync
but it’s particularly glaring with the offense – if one or two of our studs has a good offensive game, it’s like the others just automatically can’t not suck. I keep waiting…and waiting…and waiting for something to click and everything to sync up. It has to happen at some point, right?
that's every quote out of the clubhouse, so far.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
We all are Leo Mazzone, rocking back and forth, muttering "regression" and "luck"
…But it won’t stop happening. (Good line, DanUp.)
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
this is why i'm not so sure we are really "underperforming", record-wise
as our pythag suggests. what would be the pythag for the 1960 WS, when the yanks trounced the bucs according to RS/RA but lost the series in 7 games – when the yanks won, they won big, but they lost the close ones.
let’s say we average five runs a game and allow just under 4. you would expect us to be an over-500 club. but if our five runs per aren’t fairly evenly distributed over the period, and are in fact skewed considerably, we could easily be sub-500. seems the last couple years we’ve been prone to racking up a lot of runs in a single game while getting shut-down in others, and there hasn’t really been a happy median, no consistency with our offense.
to keep it simple, let’s say in a 3-game series we score 15 runs and allow 10. i’d guess pythag would expect us to go 2-1 in that series, whereas we went 1-2 by winning 11-2 and losing 5-3 and 3-1. my impression is we tend to blow other teams out more than we tend to get blown out, which would cause us to “underperform” our pythag.
if the opposite were true, and we rarely blew teams out but tended to get blown out in our losses more than the norm, then it could happen we outperformed our pythag. that would be the team in the example above that went 2-1 despite a pythag of 1-2. there could be something of this going on with the reds, whose record is apparently better than pythag expected.
in the above scenario, the team underperforming would be due to an inconsistent offense, and that would be the cards, and the team overperforming would be due to inconsistent pitching performances, and that would be the reds.
my theory is that, RA being equal, an inconsistent offense (feast or famine) would tend to make one underperform their pythag, whereas a consistent offense (the same rpg average but evenly distributed) would lead to outperforming, which a team like the angels has historically done. with the angels i believe their offensive consistency has been achieved over the years with a balanced lineup, top-to-bottom, rather than a few really good hitters in the middle surrounded by below average hitters on either end, which was a problem for us last year and was improved this year through 3b and LF, deepening our lineup, but those gains may be offset by the funks of the MIF this year compared to last (and the anomalous to-date performance of holliday w/RISP).
on a related note, baserunning has cost us more than a few runs, perhaps even a couple wins, which i suppose has always been a net gain for the angels.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
...
my theory is that, RA being equal, an inconsistent offense (feast or famine) would tend to make one underperform their pythag, whereas a consistent offense (the same rpg average but evenly distributed) would lead to outperforming, which a team like the angels has historically done
http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2010/03/improving-on-pythagoras.html
In short, you’re right, but the effect is very small to the point of triviality. And the Cardinals are not a very inconsistent offense going forward.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions
the most interesting thing I noticed in that piece
is that OBP-heavy offenses are less consistent than SLG-heavy ones, given fixed run scoring. Seems counterintuitive to what I’d expect. That said, standard deviation seems like a poor variance metric for per game run scoring given the edge effects at zero.
by brackenthebox on Jun 17, 2010 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions
couldn't you post that link BEFORE i did all that typing!!
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
You lost me
when you decided to compare a full season’s pythag record to a seven-game and then a three-game series. Of course, pythag is going to be subject to far ranging inconsistencies in three-game series and seven-game series; whereas, over the course of a month, two months, or full season, it will likely be much more representative. This is likely why the 2009 Cardinals, a team you categorize as inconsistently “racking up a lot of runs in a single game while getting shut-down in others,” went 91-71, and had an expected record of 92-70.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
well, it was simpler to list game score examples for a 3-game set
of course you could extrapolate that out to 54 3-game sets. i assumed everyone would realize that one three-game set is not significant in and of itself, but merely as an example of one typical 3-game set that recurs 54 times in a season.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Um.
The point is that you can’t extrapolate that three game set at all. That’s like flipping three coins, getting two heads and one tails and saying that 2/3 of all coins will come up heads when flipped.
I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons
um.
as i wrote, “to keep it simple…”. i am merely giving an example to illustrate what i am talking about. is this really that difficult to understand? there would be wide variances in game scores, etc., and sometimes we would be the team getting blown out, not doing the blowing out – of course. i am saying the same thing as the study that vep linked to, but apparently am not communicating it well.
the coin flipping is chance, but we know the outcome in the end will be 50-50, so we can predict that. i am not predicting the outcomes of the games, i am stating what the outcomes are in order to illustrate how the expected outcome (pythag) could differ from the actual outcome, which would be akin to altering the coin flip experiment by weighting one side of the coin to see what happens.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
The coin flipping is chance,
and the outcome of one run games is as close to chance as is possible in baseball, yet our team has been inordinately unlucky when compared to, say, the Reds in one run games.
I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons
of course
not that it has much to do with my argument about run distribution, though, except that in my theoretical model a team scored 15 runs every 3-game set, so that if the bulk of them (11 in this example) are scored in 1 game, then that leaves only 4 to be distributed between the other two, and could i suppose mean more 1-run losses for a team with good pitching.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
You also need a mechanism explaining why a team that can reliably score 11 runs in one game only scores 4 in the next two. You’re proposing a significantly more complicated model of run scoring than that used in pythagorean expectation so you’ll need pretty strong evidence to support that complexity.
by brackenthebox on Jun 17, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm not really proposing anything
i’m just saying, if this happened, and runs were distributed this way, and the team ended with this record, and pythag would have it at this other record, this would explain the discrepancy. had i chanced upon vep’s linked article i could have saved myself the trouble.
however, i suppose i am somewhat explaining what you suggest, in that i think a balanced lineup of all solid hitters would have a more even run distribution than a lineup with a few very good hitters but a lot of holes, even if the wOBA’s of those two lineups were the same (the wOBA would be distributed differently, if you would, with one lineup consisting of some extreme highs and lows and the other with every player right in the same range – not saying the runs averaged would necessarily be different, but just that the distribution of those runs over a period would be different, with the second lineup being the more consistent of the two because it is less reliant on two or three players – just a theory, and i’m sure this is something that has been studied by someone, just that i’m ignorant of the studies/conclusions).
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Yawn.
You’re not proposing, it’s just a theory. What you’re saying isn’t even a theory- it’s simple math. If you score a shitload of runs in one game and you have a finite number of runs to distribute, then you will score fewer runs in other games. Pythag and run distribution both are supported by tons of evidence, and I don’t see you giving any new evidence to support your position that the Cardinals are going to be more prone to wide swings in run production when compared to the rest of the league.
If you disagree with the conclusion- that the Cardinals are playing like a team on pace for a win total in the low nineties, that doesn’t mean you can just make blanket statements about how the conclusion is wrong.
I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons
by hazel on Jun 18, 2010 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
not making any blanket statements
i’m not saying the cards will be prone to wide swings, i was just suggesting why perhaps to-date we have underperformed our pythag, that perhaps it is because we blow some teams out and that skews our pythag win expectancy, so that whereas we are underperforming our pythag, our actual record is legit and should be expected, rather than just saying we are underperforming our pythag so we’ve been a bit unlucky.
i do not disagree that the cards will win in the low nineties, as our pythag suggests, because i believe the offense will become more balanced and not subject to wide swings in run distribution game to game, which to this point MAY account for the difference between our pythag and actual record, and thus the false impression that we are “underperforming”, record-wise.
i guess an example would be this last series, where we outscored the m’s 15-6, i believe, but 9 of those runs were in a single game. had we scored an even 5 per game we would have swept. this is all very simplistic and intended only as an explanation of why our record is not better, which was the original comment i replied – mattyp’s post about our offense being out of sync and not clicking.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
let's see
i’ll categorize a blowout as winning by 5 or more runs
Blowout wins: by 5, by 6, by 5, by 5, by 6, by 6, by 6, by 7, by 5, by 6, by 8, by 8, by 8, by 6
Blowout losses: by 5, by 5, by 5, by 8, by 5
blowout wins = 87 runs
blowout losses = 28 runs
not sure if that tells us really anything… i guess i can see your point, but i think we are the fact that we are this good is why we don’t get blown out, generally good teams don’t get blown out that much and blow out bad teams
so again im not so sure i agree with your theory
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 18, 2010 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions
ah thanks
yes, that’s kind of what i was looking for. yeah, we wouldn’t be as prone to blowout, imo, because of our pitching consistency, whereas a similar team record-wise, such as the reds, i believe would be more prone because they have more inconsistent performances from their pitching, but perhaps a more consistent offense than ours, which is why i suggested they are perhaps overperforming their pythag but their actual record is legit, sort of the polar opposites of us. this is all supposition, and something that evens out more i guess over time.
the only way to see if there is any validity would be to study the run distribution of each team in the league and compare it to their average runs per game to see the deviation (how many runs they average wouldn’t matter, in other words, only whether or not there were big fluctuations rather than consistency). then you would have to get an average from that to see what is the normal deviation for the league, and then do the same for the cardinals to see if we are more on the feast-or-famine or the consistent end of the run-distribution spectrum. at least that’s how i believe it would be done, not being a statistician.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
not sure what you mean when you say record is legit?
its not like ERA or BA where a guy is having a fluky start really….
its set in stone, the record IS legit, and many teams can overperform/underperform their pythag
the thing pythag does is possible tell us the true talent level of the team
and for the record, i disagree with the notion that the reds are more prone to blowouts..
how is their offense more consistent? evidently, not ALL of their hitters are going to be overperforming (even if slightly) at once and this is what likely brings you to tell me they are more consistent…. when some of their hitters struggle which hasn’t really happened yet and will happen, their “consistent” offense will become inconsistent
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 18, 2010 2:52 AM EDT up reply actions
i don't know if the reds have been more consistent
offensively, but it may explain why they are overperforming their pythag – it’s always been an interesting debate about why the angels historically overperform theirs, and i don’t know if there have been any conclusions, but i would suggest it could be due to offensive consistency, as i outlined up above – in other words, they score a steady five per rather than ten one game and 0 the next, a formula that will win you more ball games than the feast-or-famine method of averaging 5.
yes, i think our record is legit, but many think it is fluky, or unlucky, because pythag expects it to be better – this is what i mean. i don’t expect it to be better because i think at the moment we have a wonky run distribution.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Then back it up
As of now the default assumption is that we are underperforming our Pythag for random reasons. So go and show us that we are underperforming our Pythag because our run distribution is wonky, or else that is just conjecture.
And if you can show us that our run distribution has been wonky, find a way to show us that our run distribution will continue to be.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 18, 2010 3:12 AM EDT up reply actions
oh, i readily admitted it is conjecture
but don’t expect me to do any statistical analysis – it’s just not that important to me, but it might be interesting for someone else, whatever their reason.
i’m not sure if it will continue to be wonky, because things tend to even out, so i’m not even going there (and i have no idea how one would show that either – not even a clue). besides, if this were to be done for a team, the angels would probably be the most interesting guinea pig, as they have a history. again, though, i’d be interested in reading such a thing, but not in doing the analysis. and even if it was found they overperform pythag by scoring a steady 5, then it leads to the question of how they do that, which would get into lineup construction, mostly, but also strategy and philosophy (such as taking the extra base, which would make one consider speed, and then roster construction, etc. etc etc)
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
ok, i did a little work on our run
distribution compared to the angels, and i’ll try to get the numbers up here shortly – there is a difference, but when i get them posted maybe you can tell me if there’s any statistical significance.
but as i said, that second thing you are asking is way beyond this rudimentary stuff i am capable of, which was basically adding and multiplying once i gathered all the game scores together for each team.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i'm going to put this in a new comment
at the bottom of the page – just think it will be easier to read.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
"Consistency" might be the second most misunderstood concept in casual/media sports following
only just behind “irony”.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:19 AM EDT up reply actions
after reading monk's reply to your comment
i think i should explain that if some or all reds hitters are overperforming their true talent level, that would have nothing to do with their overperforming their pythag, because the buckets of runs they score would be reflected in their pythag. it is more a matter of how those runs are distributed over the games that would affect the pythag-vs-actual discrepancy, if there was one, and thus if they were “consistently” scoring near their average, say a consistent five rather than 0 and 10, i would call them a consistent offense – consistent could be good or bad, depending on if you score 3 every game or 6.
i don’t follow the reds closely enough to know, but perhaps key hitters are not streaky like luddy and razzums have been known to be, and maybe the lineup is more “consistent” throughout (which again could be good or bad) – maybe their worst is not as bad as ours, and their best is not as good, and they are more evenly grouped, which would perhaps make them less prone to the streakiness of a couple hitters, or overly-reliant on any one or two.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
You're contradicting yourself:
i was just suggesting why perhaps to-date we have underperformed our pythag, that perhaps it is because we blow some teams out and that skews our pythag win expectancy, so that whereas we are underperforming our pythag, our actual record is legit and should be expected
1. We have underperformed our pythag
2. We blow some teams out
3. Our record should be expected
Statement two is true for any team and is an obvious fact. The point of a pythagorean record (or more advanced mertics created to determine expected win percentage) is to determine how lucky a team has been in its run distribution.
Statements one and three are contradictory: According to our expected win% our record should not be expected at all- we should be winning more games.
What you seem to be saying is that our current record is possible. Since it happened, it’s obvious that it is possible, but I’m going to labor this point: Because the Cardinals have lost an inordinate number of close games, and because they haven’t been blown out as often as they have blown other teams out, they are underperforming their expected win%. This is a fact, and in light of this fact you could say they “deserve” to have their current record. The point of an expected win percentage is to show that despite the distribution of runs that resulted in our current record, the team should have won a different number of games because they allow substantially fewer runs than they score.
If a team has a certain expected win percentage, then you would “expect” them to win around that many games. You would not expect them to defy the odds any more than you would expect a coin to repeatedly turn up heads.
I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons
by hazel on Jun 18, 2010 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
point two is obvious
as is the fact that all teams have blowout wins, but what is not obvious is whether we do that more than other teams (which is the whole point), and so whether an inordinate percentage of our runs scored are scored in such a manner. if so, then that could explain why we are underperfoming our pythag – thus, our record is “deserved”, and i wouldn’t consider us to be unlucky, even though that record differs from the “expected” record derived from pythag formula, which as far as i know doesn’t account for run distribution.
over a full season this may normalize, but at this point in the season a bunch of blowout wins could cause people, when looking at our pythag, to falsely believe we should have more wins, and that we have been unlucky in this regard – they would “expect” to have more wins, true, but these would be false expectations, imo, skewed by a bunch of blowout wins (if this is indeed happening).
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
so go to B-R, do some research, and come back and tell us
how our record in blowout games relates to other teams in our division, league, comparable teams in history, etc.
Here’s a hint: we’re 3-23 when we score 1-3 runs, 33-7 when we score 4 or more. Yet our pitchers have a 3.64 ERA overall (3rd in league). Does that really seem sustainable to you?
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
i'm not sure i really understand the relevance
of the hint, but the numbers look about right to me, assuming that 1-3 runs is supposed to be 0-3 runs, since we’ve been shut out i believe ten times already. as far the question, i suppose i’d answer yes, but i feel there’s something i’m missing.
well, i’ll start with the game results and see how it is we are averaging our 5 a game, or whatever the actual number is, i.e. how many times we’ve scored one, how many 2, etc., just to eyeball for consistency to begin with, see if there’s anything there that stands out – but i’m not doing that for other teams (!!), so i won’t really have anything to compare it to determine if it’s abnormal.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
doing it for other teams
is the whole point.
At least look at how those numbers looked last year, for OUR team.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
having not run the numbers
my theory is that, RA being equal, an inconsistent offense (feast or famine) would tend to make one underperform their pythag, whereas a consistent offense (the same rpg average but evenly distributed) would lead to outperforming
Usually with these types of models, inconsistent bad teams (negative run differential) should outperform their pythag on average, while inconsistent good teams should underperform. In general, riskier strategies are good for bad teams and bad for good teams. An inconsistent offense with a fixed RS is equivalent to a riskier strategy.
by brackenthebox on Jun 17, 2010 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
yeah, i should have noted i wasn't considering bad teams at all
just “good” teams, or at least contenders.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
if you remove his 2010 RISP #s from his career RISP #s
you get 1,096 PAs, for a line of .299/.379/.421/.800.
Still below his overall career .318/.387/.545/.933, but he simply should not be this bad w/ RISP, and IMHO he (eventually) will start regressing towards his career numbers w/ RISP.
The thing that I find interesting in these numbers is that his 04-09 batting average and on-base % are pretty close to his career norms, but it’s his slugging that shows the substantial drop. I wonder if there’s something different about his approach in these situations; I don’t know what that might be though. Is he looking just to make contact as opposed to driving the ball? Guess hitting? Is it nerves? Dunno.
i'd think obp would be slightly aided w/RISP by IBB's
but yeah, his BA isn’t that big a drop. don’t understand the slugging, unless, as you suggest, he is consciously making it a point to try not to strike out w/RISP and just put the ball in play. do k% splits exist – with RISP and without?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
hmmmm
I’d say you’re on to something that warrants testing for statistical significance.
Regarding the pluses – top of the rotation, strong outfield, decent bullpen, and Albert, all true, and I’d add that Freese has been a pleasant surprise. But Boog, Skip, and Yadi have struggled offensvely, and Colby’s defense has not been stellar, and Aaron Miles. I think Boog and Yadi will regress upward (and maybe Skip) and Colby may be getting it together.
On a sadder note, I think Dennys may be following the Burger King path to oblivion.
Yadi needs more days off
Tony is determined to play him until he drops.
If LaRue isn’t a viable sub, release him and call up Bryan Anderson. We give up a little defense for a a big gain in offense.
"They're so stunned they didn't even boo!"
John Rooney 5/3/10 referring to Philly fans on Cards 5-run 7th inning
I agree with you on Yadi need more breaks.
I don’t understand why TLR is riding him into the ground like he is, especially with the midwestern humidity taking hold as we get deeper into summer.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
it's affecting him on both sides of the plate
watch Tony put him out there for the post-rehab starts, to establish the ‘comfort level’.
the only concession I see is that in later innings, LaRue catches the warm-up tosses. (Tuesday, Stavinoha went out there in just a mask. I didn’t see any pads. then he got up and went back to the dugout still wearing the mask.)
begs the question: less useful to the team, Aaron Miles or Jason LaRue?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I agree we use Yadi way too much
But I think LaRue is a fine backup catcher. Im just not sure why Tony isn’t using him. Is he in Boog’s old doghouse? For shaving?
"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Jun 17, 2010 9:31 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Backup catchers, as a species, are dreadful
and so, in that company, LaRue’s fine, basically, for one start a week. I too have no idea why LaRussa is playing Yadi into the ground.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 17, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, sir.
TLR, please give LaRue the one start a week his backup catcher designation allots him. It’s for the good of Cardinal Nation.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Didn't I hear somewhere...
…that LaRue’s knees essentially won’t allow him to catch two days in a row anymore? If that’s the case, then, on some level, it makes sense that TLR doesn’t use him more frequently – what if on Day 1, LaRue catches, and the following day Yadi pulls a gutintate or whatever and can’t go for a few days. We end up Stavinoha (or Motte, which would be far more interesting, in my opinion) catching.
Of course, if that’s true, it raises a whole ’nother issue – why are you carrying someone on the roster you hope to never have to use?
You raise the issue.
If that is true, then why are we paying LaRue $900,000 to be our back-up catcher when he can’t actually perform the duties of the back-up catcher?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Right.
Perhaps I should have made my title the issue. And, what you leave unsaid is, if Yadi is injured, then LaRue could not fill in for him, which is another back-up catcher duty…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
LaRue exists at the pleasure of Chris Carpenter.
note that’s “exist” rather than “is employed”
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 17, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I guess I had just assumed...
…that, in case of a Yadi absence, Anderson gets called up and we have an every-other-day rotation of “Bryan and the Fu”.
But yeah, it’s a valid question.
Sadly,
if this worst-case scenario presented itself, I believe we would see Bat Gagnozzi called up, given how TLR has gotten his way with the last handful of roster moves.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I am broadly confident that the org are mostly
aware how bad Gagz sucks.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 17, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
yet we have aaron miles and jeff suppan in 2010...
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
They're proven vets.
Well, vets anyway. One somewhat proven, the other is just gritty as hell.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 17, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Miles is awful
But gagnozzi is apocalyptic.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:22 AM EDT up reply actions
anderson already got the callup
i assume he’d also get the next.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
he shaved the Fu
we don’t even know who he is anymore
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 17, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
the towels work for crying. too.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
True dis:
Of course, if that’s true, it raises a whole ’nother issue – why are you carrying someone on the roster you hope to never have to use?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 17, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Boog's having a really good June thus far
I can see him moving back up at least to replacement-level hitting, which is probably just about OK if he continues to be an excellent shortstop.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 17, 2010 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions
i haven't mentioned him since the off-season, monk
so even though you hate the name, gotta say juan uribe. when i was pushing for him to be signed we admittedly had no lopex, and i’d rather have him for 2mil this year than uribe for 3, i guess, but if lopex hadn’t fallen into our laps i’d still be pissed we didn’t sign uribe to initially platoon with skip and fill in at short or third now and then, and by this point he’d likely be the starter at second and giving us a lot more than skip.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i thought uribe sucked... look at stats
and holy shit, didn’t know he had so much power…
and i disagree…. if lopez isn’t starting, what makes you think uribe would
highly doubt he’d rack up 11 homers on our team with the playing time he’d likely be given
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 18, 2010 2:39 AM EDT up reply actions
of course uribe has power
the fat little guy swings for the fences every pitch.
i’m assuming that lopex is the starter now or very soon, i guess, and so uribe would be in the same boat. tony might have a soft spot for schu, but even ank he finally started benching in favor of colby, and ank was his other favorite.
but hey, if schu surprises and turns it around, and lopex is the utility guy, it’s all good – still, had lopex not fallen in our lap then uribe would have been a very productive player to fill that role and get plenty of playing time, like lopex, at second, short, and third – a starter’s minutes without the designation is all.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
hmmmm... at further glance, i want lopez over uribe
i guess it depends on how much you value you power….. because 2 things scare me away from him
1. his career OBP is .303…. so bad that Schumacher’s OBP RIGHT NOW is better than that…. career high previous to this season is .327 (unless you think .355 is legit this year which would be a statistical anomaly [in other words, i have no idea how you could think this as a sane person])… just for fun, Schu’s is .348
2. his BABIP right now is .348… his career average is .287 (which means he’s a pretty awful contact hitter) oddly enough his 11 homers aren’t even factored into that BABIP so he’s getting that much luckier
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 18, 2010 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions
oh, i definitely prefer lopex
he’s just a better player and at a cheaper price. but if he’d signed elsewhere instead of falling in our lap i would think uribe would’ve been good in his super-utility role (and the only reason i advocated for uribe to begin with was because at the time in the offseason it was assumed lopex was going to be more expensive than uribe and require a longer deal).
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Uribe would've been fine as a backup guy
Apologies if I gave the impression that I hated him over the winter! He is what he is – a competent backup who’s had a lucky last ~8 months of baseball. I was concerned he’d be a bit of a waste of money considering that Tyler Greene is a very similar player (and has been hammering the holy hell out of the ball in AAA). FWIW I’d still rather have Greene up than Uribe, but Uribe looks a better option than Schu at 2B now.
Now that Boog is actually hitting again, I think it makes the decisions very easy. We play Lopez at 2B, and Boog at SS, every day. They’re clearly by some distance the best two middle infielders on the roster and they need to be playing ahead of Schu and (ugh) Miles.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Can a player "regress upward"?
I’m not being a wise guy as I think I’ve actually said that before, but wouldn’t a sub average hitter “progress” to the mean?
Regression in the statistical sense...
…simply means moving back towards an established baseline of performance, be that movement up or down.
It’s been forever since I dallied into statistical lingo, but I think that’s the general gist of it.
Yes.
Albert Pujols in May regressed back into Albert Pujols from the rest of his career.
I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons
And it came to pass,
that on the third day, Albert Pujols regressed from the dead.
I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons
by hazel on Jun 17, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
on-topic
http://yourenotagolfer.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/06/note_of_the_nightstat_of_the_d_17.html
great quotes from Jaime
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Interesting quote about Freese from the "not-a-golfer" blog
“Stat of the day: David Freese his hitting .318 with a .441 slugging percentage, which comes out to an isolated slugging percentage of .123. His career ISO in the Minors was .224, and it was never below .187 in any Minor League season.”
Sounds like we can expect Freese to get better as he fully adjusts to the major leagues.
I'm hoping so. Though, he's generally taken very patient at-bats, which I'm really impressed with
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
i like batman. moar batman.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 17, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
how is ISO calculated?
i understand what it means, but what actually goes into the formula, or what is the formula (if it’s not too much to type)?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Slugging - batting average
Really complicated stuff.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
huh, well i guess ISO is less informative than i thought
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i took it a different meaning
Since he is a high avg/low iso player. He is more prone to wild swings in OPS. If he has a run of bad luck he will have a bigger drop off in OPS than a player that has a lower average but more power. His current OPS is fueled by a high avg based around singles. So essentially he needs a lot of hits to maintain that current OPS. While a player with a lower avg but similar OPS to Freese would be more likely to maintain it than Freese would. So when you throw his .394 BABIP he might be due for some regression.
Or is he simply doing a good job putting the ball in play? He was doing a great job early in the season taking balls the other way. Now pitchers are starting to break him inside so he is pulling the ball. So possibly he is adjusting swing to be able handle both pitches better at the cost of some power.
A similar argument can be about Zach Cox
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 17, 2010 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions
cox gave up some power in favor of more contact this year
because scouts were concerned with his k-rate. i don’t know if freeze’s power is any different than earlier in the year, but maybe he’s just getting fewer doubles as defenses are positioning him differently now that there are some spray charts – could be some doubles are being caught and others are cut off for singles. there could be something to the way he is pitched, as you say, but i still see him generally hitting the pitches away, although the only out he made last night was a k looking when aardsma painted the inside corner and it seemed freeze was looking away, or for something other than a fastball.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
just the way Freese is hitting right now
He is probably closer to a .785 OPS vs this current .831 with a neutral BABIP
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 17, 2010 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
i'd say that's probably about what he is
todd zeile had a career ops of .769 and i’ve always pegged freeze to be about a todd zeile offensively when explaining him to someone who hasn’t seen much of him – just a rough comparison.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I think that's a good one
I reckon Freese will be average, or a tick above, for the next few years. If he’s a competent 3B than that’ll make him about an average player, which is really all we could expect from him. I think, going forward, he’ll fit for a lower average (although I think a true-talent .280-300 is possible) and a bit more power (he was a comfortable 25-HR guy in the high minors and he’s got, what, 4 this year?).
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions
The .394 BABIP is absolutely not sustainable
I can’t think of any major leaguers who, over a reasonably long period of time, have exceeded about .350, and those guys are usually guys who hit the ball hard (probably more pop than Freese) and are very, very fast (which Freese isn’t). Hanley Ramirez might be the classic example of a “true” high BABIP guy, and (without checking) I think his career BABIP is only around the .350 mark.
Freese is hitting above himself anyhow, I don’t think he’s much more than an average bat going forward. He needs to start flashing some more power and get some xbh too, if he’s going to even be average.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:29 AM EDT up reply actions
huh
1. awesome picture.
2. Jaime got Wainwrighted.
3. DanUp, did you just jinx us….?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
On the pic
Does anyone else think Boog looks like a ceramic figure placed upon the outfield wall?
"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Jun 17, 2010 9:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
he's the shortstop in left field, so...
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Speaking of True Talent, Regression, and all of those fun things,
I believe that we should celebrate Colby Rasmus showing the ability to hit lefthanded pitching in the big leagues, just as he did in the minor leagues. It has been covered by Bernie in recent weeks and Goold noted it in his daily must-read 10@10 yesterday.
Manager Tony La Russa has said repeatedly that he believes Rasmus will hit lefties, and hit them well. He described last night in his post-game (televised) presser how Rasmus stays composed, sturdy in the box against lefties. His swing doesn’t fly apart when facing a lefty. His 2010 splits (BA/OBP/SLG) show it:
vs. RHP … .300/.408/.600
vs. LHP … .289/.372/.579
The season Rasmus is having is something special to behold. If he keeps this up, we could have a new MV3 on our hands. (I’m very excited about this. It’s like pro wrestling, where the youngest member of the old faction starts the faction up again, but with new members. “That’s…That’s Albert Pujols, but what’s that music playing? That’s MV3 music!”)
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jun 17, 2010 9:50 AM EDT reply actions 4 recs
yeah
I think he’s looked fantastic against lefties this year. He seems to hit lefty breaking balls really well all of a sudden, when he was chasing them badly this year. I think it’s all down to plate discipline (and, obviously, a bit of ball-in-play luck too) this year – he’s not chasing down and away or flailing wildly and seems to be being especially selective to lefties.
HOLLIDAY…… GET THE TABLES!!!!
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 17, 2010 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
A Dudley Boys reference?
That’s quite a long time ago.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
They were my fav tag team
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
BAH GOD KANG LOOK AT THE CARNAGE
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
by mysterui on Jun 17, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hahahaha
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
The best part about this comment
is the first time I read the last sentence, I immediately heard it in Jerry “The King” Lawler’s voice, same goes for the Jim Ross comment by rui below
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
Heh. When I saw "Kang" I thought of the Simpsons aliens.
was a big WWF fan back in the Ross/King days, though. Those guys still around?
I strongly suspect there is a very large intersection in the late-90s WWF fan/sabremetric 20-something-baseball-fan-posting-on-SBN Venn Diagram.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Didn't look very good last night against Vargas, but then again, nobody did
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
i think freeze is more suited to hit vargas
vargas pitched away, away, away, and this plays into freeze’s strength with his approach of hitting to right. lot of the others try to pull that too often. as for colby, even the righties seemed to have a hard time picking the ball up from vargas delivery, so it’s not really surprising that a lefty hitter might even have a tougher time. the guy pitched pretty well, and we missed a couple opportunities, as well as handing him too many easy innings early on.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Should've played into Yadi's hands as well, really, as his only hit pretty much is poking it between 2B and 1B.
Been a bit disappointed with Yadi this year after his career year in 2009. I realise his hitting (low BB-rate, lots of GB) is probably more prone to variance than many, but I can’t help but feel the grind of playing every single day can’t be helping this year. He’s on couse for a significant career high in games started, AND he’s always been near the top of the league on that list historically. I think there’s an argument that TLR is abusing him a little bit.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:36 AM EDT up reply actions
heh, i didn't even think of yadi
but you’re right, should’ve played into his hands, just that i’ve gotten used to him not hitting, i suppose. unlike schu or boog, yadi should play every day even when he’s not hitting a thing, but on the other hand he absolutely shouldn’t play every day even if he’s raking.
i agree he plays too much, and i remember you discussing this in the offseason and suggesting acquiring a backup who is competent so yadi can rest more. i guess that was a good idea, because yadi seems just a tick slow lately, both offensively and defensively, so he’s probably being overused – you would think tony could see this based on performance.
i initially thought stav made the roster just because he can emergency catch, which would make tony more comfortable to use larue more, but i guess not. as it turns out, stav has done a good job pinch-hitting, which is a tough job. i think you really have to be a guy who is just content to be on the team, and so willing to get swings in every day and stay sharp without moping – even a vet who has had his day might still have too much ego to really embrace the role, knowing you’re not going to actually ever get to play (stav has gotten in the field a few times, but very few, and that is for the best).
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I don't think LaRue is that bad
his bat fell away a bit last year, but, well, he’s a backup catcher and they mostly suck.
Actually, the guy I’d have really liked in the role is Yadi’s bro, Jose. I admit that catcher defense metrics mostly suck and have massive warts, but everything I’ve seen that attempts to qualify defense has Jose as an absolutely ELITE guy when it comes to framing, pitch blocking, and he’s got a good arm as well (hey, he’s a Molina!). His hitting may be awful but that’s the same for any backup guy. Defensively (which is what the Cardinals want from their catchers) he’s probably no worse than Yadi, so I’m pretty sure they’d happily give him one start a week. Maybe he wouldn’t want to be playing backup to his little bro, but I think he’d be perfect for the role, anyway.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions
jose would be better than larue by a lot
i don’t expect the backup to necessarily hit, but larue looks so bad defensively i fear that’s why we’re not playing him and abusing yadi instead. i never thought he was particularly good behind the plate, but i don’t remember him as bad as he’s looked this year.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
cue my sig
but i like your sig better
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 17, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
MV3?
If Holliday gets hitting when it matters, we could have an MV4 on our hands…plus the MV3 of pitching…
Ludwick's not that good
Seriously, MV3-era Rolen and Edmonds are way ahead of any player on our team not named Albert (unless Colby’s production this year is 100% sustainable, which I doubt, tbh). I think when we’re looking for our “new” MV3, there’s a tendency to forget how unbelievably awesome mid-2000s Edmonds and Rolen were. Their 2004 were among the best seasons EVER by a third baseman and a centre fielder, respectively. I don’t think anyone other than Albert in the current lineup is going to achieve anything that historic.
IIRC you could put the 2004 MV3 guys on a REPLACEMENT LEVEL team (read: basically a poor AAA roster) and they’d still have been quite close to posting as .500 record. That’s how good they were.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:39 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, even holliday's best season to date i'd bet doesn't match rolen or edmonds
from that time. albert would have to put up some serious numbers to lift the current mv3 into anywhere near the original’s production, and that’s serious numbers above and beyond what he put up with the original group.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Yeah
those guys put up something crazy like 25 WAR in 2004. There are entire ROSTERS in major league baseball that aren’t worth 25 WAR this year. I bet the Pirates and Astros entire 25-man probably aren’t as valuable as those three guys.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah...okay...
I was just being a bit too optimistic…
02-04
Rolen averaged 7.6 WAR
Edmonds averaged 7.33 WAR
Pujols averaged 7.57 WAR
That’s a total of 22.5 WAR – on average – from 2002-2004 for those three. Wow!
i wonder where that ranks historically for 3 players on the same team
over a 3-year period?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
yeah, me too
i just put way too much time into something else, though.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
RFL
nuff said
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 18, 2010 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Im sorry if anyone else mentioned it, but what was with Pujols' strikeout
last night..2 called strikes and a high outside fastball miss…that’s about the worst at bat possible I think.
Both the first 2 pitches were borderline low....
and then it looked like Albert just gave up and that’s something he never does usually. He never gives away at-bats.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Not sure if this has been posted elsewhere.
But here’s a little trip down Trade Memory Lane:
by Cardfanintherock on Jun 17, 2010 10:56 AM EDT reply actions
Hey, I'm for Jocketty making as many stretch drive deals as he wants
Let him damage the Reds future grabbing one Proven Veteran after another for what will be a futile run at the NL Central title.
The Reds cupcake part of their schedule is just about up. They’ll enjoy Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez this weekend.
They get only nine home games in July and 12 in August.
by Michael_68_1999 on Jun 17, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
assuming they don't TRADE for cliff lee in the meantime
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker on Jason Motte
Austin Wilson, please don't be a tease!
let's hope lee stays in the AL
my personal preference being minnesota.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
To be fair
I might be totally wrong about this, but my impression so far is that the schedule has been VERY kind to us in pitching match-ups. How many real shutdown aces have we faced this year? Off the top of my head, I can only remember Halladay once, no Lincecum, no Ubaldo, no Josh Johnson, one against Haren, we managed to avoid the two best Mariners guys, I can’t remember facing Oswalt, etc. etc. Possibly completely biased view but it wouldn’t surprise me if the combined ERA/FIP of the starters we’ve faced so far is significantly worse than league average.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions
good point
we did face lincecum though. he wasn’t really on that day, but still shut us down – lincecum at 80% is still an ace. i think we faced gallardo…not sure if we saw santana – all i remember of the mets is the 20-inning affair. we did play the braves a four-game set, but i’m not sure which starter we missed there, but that’s a pretty solid staff that we swept – of course the braves weren’t good then as a team, either, so we maybe got a little lucky there – that was the series talking chop went without a game thread because the mood was so miserable.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I think we got santana, yeah
I remember there was some discussion about whether colby should face him. Maybe we’ve not done as well as I thought, but it does seem to me we’ve not faced THAT many true aces. Of course, having 2 of the top 10 pitchers in the NL helps, as it means we never have to face them!
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, the reds are sort of screwed in that regard
since they have no aces on their staff that they get to miss. in our division, despite 6 teams, we have fewer aces than the other two divisions, and half of them are on our team (i count gallardo and oswalt as the other two, and refuse to consider silva – in fact jaime might be the closest to a fifth ace in the division).
considering we play the bulk of our games in-division, and there are only 2 aces other than ours, we won’t really face aces often this year, especially considering our interleague schedule – having missed the two with seattle, and oakland and toronto don’t really have aces, nor did the angels, leaving the possibility that we catch greinke. and strasburg wasn’t up when we played, but i do hope we get to face him.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Yeah
and even Gallardo and Oswalt aren’t great. I’d say, of the top 10 pitchers in the NL, none of them play for our divisional rivals (Carp and Waino would make that list), so that’s a big bonus I guess.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
we had coco crisp?
ehh, we had edmonds there anyway, not like it matters, but wow that surprised me a little
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 18, 2010 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions
We drafted him I believe
I always forget we had Drew, too, even though I think he hit a double in the first Cardinals game I saw live.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep. Traded him in the Finley deal as the PTBNL.
He was drafted 6 rounds ahead of Pujols.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
who the hell is coco with - is it kc?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Oakland
part of Billy Beane’s master plan to have an entire 25-man roster of no-hit center fielders.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
ha, i think that's what he was
or maybe he played a corner. kind of like tony and his MIF’ers.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
If I'm not mistaken, VEB is Saturday.
I have just received an email from the Cardinals that may make my attendance financially viable. I thought I’d pass it along for folks who may also be on the fence. There is a coupon code that gets you 50% and it is “OAKLAND.” Here is what it applies to:
These discounted ticket prices are available for Friday (6/18) and Sunday (6/20) only:
Outfield Terrace Reserved – $12 (reg. $24)
Pavilion Box – $17.50 (reg. $35)
Outfield Terrace Box – $17.50 (reg. $35)
Outfield Loge Box – $20 (reg. $40)
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I just wish I had the time.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 17, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I wish I lived closer.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
i wish i was a lil bit taller...
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Jun 17, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
...i wish i was a baller...
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
by STLRegalia on Jun 17, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks....
My afternoon just got a soundtrack.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Packing because I'm about to finish on my house and planning my wedding
Or I’d like to be there
"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Jun 17, 2010 11:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
+1
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 17, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
not to be a dick
(or maybe I’m totally missing the point) but I think VEB Day is Sat (which you said in your subject), yet these discounts are only for Fri and Sun…
It’s a good deal, but how does that help take people off the fence?
I totally feel like I’m missing something here.
Because then they could stick around and see another game for cheap(er) this weekend, I guess.
Why travel into St. Louis for only one game when you could see two?
Regression, bitches.
this just in: Holliday mentally crushed
when he finds out St. Louisans hate Creed.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
fixed
this just in: Holliday mentally crushed with luggage
when he finds out St. Louisans Chris Carpenter hates Creed.
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
does Carp even know what Creed is?
A.D.A.M. had to tell him about American Idol.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 17, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
circa Cy Young race articles
Adam hangs out with Carp and attempts to school him in what the kids are up to. or something like that.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
oh you know, this calls for a re-reading of the Millionaires Club post.
(which I hope is somewhere in an easy-to-find tag)
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 17, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
exceeeelllent.
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2010/1/8/1240130/the-ten-millionaires-club
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/tags/viva-el-birdos-theater
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
that was such a brilliant post
love how Pujols alternately speaks in broken english, then is extremely articulate and no-nonsense when talking to Holliday alone. Awesome.
youneverknow
This is why when DanUp one day stops posting at VEB
I’ll probably drift away
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
Reyes' mechanics are fugly
Big Inverted L and timing problem.
A frayed UCL would explain an increasing lack of control.
He could be hurt or breaking down just like his big brother, Al.
...he has a big brother?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 17, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he means older.
Can imagine a bigger Reyes’….that’s venturing into Rich Garces territory.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
screw that
I’m imagining the wrestling mask
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Dennys
Would his mask have a fried egg on it?
Ms Bitters (Invader Zim): Children, your performance was miserable. Your parents will all receive phone calls instructing them to love you less now.
I've been playing MVP 2005
a lot lately, on which Al Reyes is a member of the Cardinals. I totally forgot about him, I feel like I could probably say the same thing about Diner in 5 years.
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
presumably "big" means older
…because if the guy was physically bigger he’d have his own orbiting moons.
youneverknow
I didn't read it at all but I have an account.
Wondering if you’re looking for something specific.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
Jim Joyce got this letter after he ruined the perfect game per SI
“One of the emails he received was sent to Major League Baseball Baseball by a 10 year old boy with a bifida. The boy was upset because he having difficulty trying to walk. His physical therapist, the boy had told him, “It’s coming, don’t cry over spilled milk.” The boy wrote," Tell Mr. Joyce this is just spilled milk"
holy shit, that is one reality check…..
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
slumpbusters....
Chase Utley and voodoo
Brendan Ryan has resorted to 2009 (previously…)
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Who do I talk to around here
about totally getting rid of the option to make a link not be in a new tab? SBN, please! I’m begging you!
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
Yeah, the only time it should ever be used
Is when linking to an overflow or something
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
in eight hours, this post will need an overflow.
jumping out and jumping back to a 1000 comment post can be troublesome.
that’s why I default to the new window.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
that's my html
not sbn. it opens to a new window, which in your browser defaults to a new tab.
however — because the target is labeled (the rather uninteresting “new”), it will be the same tab.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I figured in this case, something like that was what was going on
Couldn’t SBN just make a rule across the board that every link clicked on their site opens in a new tab/window? Wouldn’t it be to their, and their advertiser’s, benefit for their viewers to stay on their site.
Facebook pops to mind being a site that does this, with the coincidental exception of the Matthew Leach articles posted on there.
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
facebook is a different creature of coding.
there is far more nonsense going on behind the scenes, as far as I understand it (which is not far).
in other words, it would take eons to load a game thread, and then VEB would be kicked out.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
My good friend works at Facebook
And here’s all you need to know about Facebook: it is held together with Elmer’s glue and beer.
Explains the smell
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
rgiht click, open in new tab?
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
most people click the little box
for open in new window/tab when they link, so i get in the habit of just left clicking links. I guess I’ll have to devolve to right click, open new tab
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
if you want it in a new tab, most l33t browsers will allow you to make every new window → new tab
just change your settings.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I always use two hands
right click w/ the right hand and generate the drop-down menu, and hit the hotkey for Open In New Tab (T) w/ the left hand….very fast and requires zero thought once you’ve got the location of T memorized w/o looking.
ot hold the shift key while clicking at the link
even easier
not new tab, new window but more often than not same difference
keyboard = raw speed
mouses are great and everything, but I don’t want another reason to be waving the mouse cursor around. When I have a 6, 8, 10, 12 hour recording/editing session, I want to be using the keyboard as much as possible. It’s faster, takes less thinking once you’re in the habit, doesn’t require as much attention/thinking, and is better (for me anyway) ergonomically.
OT: veb meet up
What time are we meeting at j bucks?
check out VEB on facebook...just search groups for Viva El Birdos
by Dttl89 on Jun 17, 2010 1:37 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Thanks
I looked at the Fanpost, but couldn’t see a date, just discussion about which bar. I was hoping that it was July holiday weekend, in which case I could have come, but I will be somewhere in the mountains on a field trip looking at yak and forage plots. Hot stuff. Will leave here 29 June, and thinking of going to STL for maybe MIL (yuk), before my next assignment in Kandahar (more yuk, as opposed to yak!).
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on Jun 17, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
19th
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 17, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
I figured that. I would like to join. Anyhow, one of these days. Enjoy yourself, wherever you end up sleeping. I remember last year’s event, and I think that it was you who was saying that you were so drunk after the train etc, and then the actual meeting. Or maybe I am mistaken?
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on Jun 17, 2010 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Yak and forage plots?
What do you do, if you don’t mind my asking?
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 17, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
It
is just a livestock project in Nepal, including the yak, but basically a $30 million project which I originally prepared. If you are interested, here is the project website, and you might even see meself there. But basically, I have done agriculture and rural development overseas for 36 years. Ag. economist by training. I was going to give you a link to the project website, but found that the site has been suspended. This is because the government has not been paying its’ bills, business as usual. But here is the Asian Development Bank website project info. http://pid.adb.org/pid/LoanView.htm?projNo=35170&seqNo=01&typeCd=3
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on Jun 17, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
That is a pretty expansive project.
That must be a challenge to go into an area where they’ve used the same methods for thousands of years and try to get them to see how to do it better.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 17, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
FYI today is 78th of Albert
in case you are switching to Albertofstan time.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Sheesh... I go to Europe for 3 weeks...
And now I can’t seem to get back into the know… I feel so far behind… Who the hell is Randy Winn?
"I don't like to sound egotistical, but every time I stepped up to the plate with a bat in my hands, I couldn't help but feel sorry for the pitcher." Rogers hornsby.
Don't worry Ricky Horton doesn't know he is either
Last night he said Marvell Wynne is on third base after Stavinoha doubled. I’m like what? Then he and Shannon talked about how they can’t remember who players are. Good times.
I am struggling to write recaps, too.
then again, I’m a little out of it since watching Jeff Suppan pitch for us.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Time warp will do that to a person.
Or is that “warped time”?
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 17, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait... Jeff Suppan's a Cardinal!?
okay… just kidding… I knew that one… this team is getting weird though.
"I don't like to sound egotistical, but every time I stepped up to the plate with a bat in my hands, I couldn't help but feel sorry for the pitcher." Rogers hornsby.
Fixed
“okay… just kidding… I knew that one… this team is getting weird gritty though.”
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
That's funny
I was thinking of a similar sentence, except instead of the word “gritty” I had a different word that rhymed
by jd is legend on Jun 17, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Dr. Thunder and Diet Dr. Thunder
I cannot take credit for the latter.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I liked the string of obscenities after Carp missed that one putt
by jd is legend on Jun 17, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
when he did that, did you also see him turn back
and look for suitcases while dropping f boom after f bomb?
classic
Depends where he's at
At 2nd I’d say he’s a little above average. In right maybe a tad below
check out VEB on facebook...just search groups for Viva El Birdos
by Dttl89 on Jun 17, 2010 3:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
yeah
i think he’d be above average at any position other than SS and CF
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
The Astros disagree
…which is why they traded him.
Point #159 of why the Astros are what they are.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
We crowned Bud Norris?
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
I like the fact they spent TWO top ten draft picks this year on Michael Bourns.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions
does that mean they will eventually be catching every ball we hit?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
No
it means they got a couple of speedy guys in the first round whose primary tools are athleticism and not-asking-for-large-signing-bonus-ness.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
BTW I meant top 20 draft picks
they got DeShields at 8 and the other guy whose name I forget at 20. They got one of the top 3 catching prospects in the supplemental though, IIRC, so that might not have been a bad pick. DeShields at 8 was the worst non-Cubs pick of the first round IMO (although Kansas City run them close. Why do the shit teams always make awful draft picks, or is that just a completely circular argument?)
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
For Houston, the answer is Because Drayton McLane
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
except tampa, when they were shit
yeah, i like the catcher houston took, the guy from u of minny – krasvanick or something like that. his dad was drafted by minny, and minny had also already drafted him once out of high school, i believe – they may have taken him again if he fell to their next pick, to replace the big catching prospect they may well trade since he’s blocked anyway and worthless as a backup.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I think you can probably argue that they're one of the least suitable teams in baseball
to be drafting a college catcher. That said, Houston are up there too – Jason Castro should be pretty good, and a mlb regular next year. I think Mauer will stay at catcher for at least another 4 or 5 years pretty much full time, so catcher should be low on minnesota’s priorities IMO.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
this is true
but if minny traded the guy they have now for, say, lee, then this new guy could step in and develop and be insurance against mauer injury, and then be traded for another lee. i know last year they drafted a high school catcher i went to see in the state playoffs, and he was very mauer-esque, like a 6-4 shortstop athletically, with a cannon arm and a lot of pop. believe he was 14th round, so he’s still pretty far away – maybe he’ll be the replacement if/when mauer moves from behind the plate.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Thanks
for this post. About a month or more ago I posted, gloating over the fact that we had the only MLB team with two Mexican pitchers with ERA under whatever Jaime’s was at the time (1.2?), and Dennys’ was 0.46 or something. And now, regression indeed. You are sort of saying in your post that 3.63 doesn’t tell everything, but compared to the 0.,,, it sure does. Do we really need two LOOGYs? What about Salas or Kinney up?
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on Jun 17, 2010 2:26 PM EDT reply actions
Mexico
for me! When was the last time France won? Memory fails, but were they the finalists with Italy last time, or the time before?
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on Jun 17, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Mexico for me too
Ponte la Verde!!
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
Root no more...
2-0 win by El Tri
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Go 0-0!
I dislike both sides.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
I
am not a regular football fan, but a sports fan, and it is an almost Olympic-like tournament, I follow it, and always go root for the African teams, having worked there in the 70s and 80s. Of course, always set up for disappointment. Cameroon yesterday, and Nigeria today. Ivory Coast looked not bad. In other games, I root for the underdog, so was gratified with the Swiss win last night, and the New Zealand tie in the dying moments.
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on Jun 17, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
oh my
goal post. Prenez garde, les bleus!
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on Jun 17, 2010 2:32 PM EDT reply actions
Overachieving
Reds. What is with CIN up 7-1 on LA, and Arroyo hitting a 3 run HR? And we were swept. This is not good. After the Seattle series, I was even wondering if a trade for Vargas wouldn’t be an idea.
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on Jun 17, 2010 2:55 PM EDT reply actions
I know
it is just frustration that we have Sup in our now 4 person rotation for the next 10 days or so, and surely Vargas, or, getting really silly, any Card pitching alumni, like Jeff Weaver (I jest) would be better than what we are doing now.
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on Jun 17, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Weaver is better than Suppan.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 7:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Series run differentials:
STL @ LA: -10 (We lost two one-run games.)
CIN @ LA: -10 (Reds won one game 7-1, but also lost 6-2 and 12-0.)
I don’t really know that their performance was necessarily better over the course of their series versus L.A. as opposed to ours.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Right.
I’m less worried at being swept when we played two highly competitive, if dispiriting, contests. Then again, I’ve never been one much for comparing clubs based on how they do against a common opponent.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
That was the most frustrating series of the year, in my opinion.
Those are series that the Cardinals should be sweeping.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
should at least be able to win the series 2-1
falling down in one game out of three against a weak opponent isn’t anything to get bent out of shape over, but stumbling into the short end of a three-game sweep sucks.
Right
I was just commenting on the ongoing game. I hadn’t looked at the Cinci record in this current series. Thanks. Today is an off day, I wonder how the comments will go. Last offday, there was a lot of angst. Maybe the theme this time should be Ryan seems to be hitting, Freese keeps on hitting, and Aaron isn’t playing much?
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on Jun 17, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Who is this "Aaron" of which you speak?
Oh, wow. Grit Miles’s first name is Aaron. Now is see. In that case, I hope “Aaron isn’t playing much” is a theme that continues through season’s end!
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
most infuriating bit:
6 BB, 5 H, 1 K, 1 ER in 7 IP. How the hell.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
lot of lobsters
and the total number is even deceiving because of the 3 dp’s, and oddly enough they were all 3-6-1 (votto-cabrera-arroyo), and by the middle of the order (kemp, ethier, anderson) at inopportune times. also some hard hits that were robbed – bruce is a really, really good defender, and in one inning i watched made two excellent plays (he’s much faster than i thought).
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Yeesh
That’s even worse than our own rotating Randy Winn show, where one of our outfielders, who are arguably each better than most other outfielders in the NL, have to sit a game out.
Adios Esposito.
Adios Sarge. Say a prayer for Surf Boy...wherever he is.
To be fair, Winn only started when Rasmus was hurt and to give Ludwick a day off
I doubt that he’ll be starting very much at all the rest of the year.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Very true.
With Colby evening out his platoon splits, he has disarmed TLR of his favorite rationale for sitting a starter in favor of a bench player. Carry on, Razza.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Unless you name is Skip Schumaker
And then you hit leadoff versus lefties.
Adios Esposito.
Adios Sarge. Say a prayer for Surf Boy...wherever he is.
Hope you're right going forward
But you are correct about his starts so far. Guess I overreacted.
B-R has him starting 3 games in place of Rasmus and 1 in place of Ludwick (as you state).
Adios Esposito.
Adios Sarge. Say a prayer for Surf Boy...wherever he is.
I would guess that's reasonable for a 3 week period or whatever it's been
I think Winn one game per week is pretty defensible.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions
as long as the rest of the bench is larue, schu, stav, and miles
he’s the only guy capable of pinch-running without using garcia – almost came in handy last game in that role, but it didn’t work out, not that it was any fault of his own. of course greene would be real handy too, but he’s a pipe dream at this point.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
That's a good point
our bench is horribly short of speed. I really think that one good power hitter (Craig) and one guy who runs the bases v well (Greene) should be on every good MLB bench. Unfortunately, “good MLB bench” and “2010 St Louis Cardinals” are not phrases that can be used in the same sentence, unless you have a negative in there too.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions
joey slides is an excellent baserunner
if a couple months of at-bats in memphis shows a return to form he might get another shot.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Soto
is hitting even worse than Holliday with RISP, with a .133 average.
I say, play him more!
by Michael_68_1999 on Jun 17, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
So when are managers going to realize...
…that there is this thing called the internet, and on this thing called the internet there is information. Anyone can look up this information and see whatever they’d like to see. So, these old manager-isms won’t fly much anymore because they run directly counter to things that have actually happened, and everyone who wants to can see this b.s.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 17, 2010 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Soooo...
…am I the only one who burst into tears last night over that eighth-inning bunt? Does Tony not have access to Fangraphs?
Agreed,
if you’re going to play for the tie, then play for the tie, dammit!
by ArkansasTravs on Jun 18, 2010 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
yeah, that was frustrating
the actual effect on win expectancy was only about -3%, but it seemed like an incredible buzz kill at the time.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
That WAS painful
As were the cheers and some standing ovations from the crowd.
I would love it if we showed current run expectancy on the scoreboard in any given game situation.
Adios Esposito.
Adios Sarge. Say a prayer for Surf Boy...wherever he is.
Replying to Archaeopteryx
Oops, sorry.
Adios Esposito.
Adios Sarge. Say a prayer for Surf Boy...wherever he is.
the ovation was because thre was no bunt fail.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
there, even.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I actually don't remember what happened. Could someone explain the situation?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
stav hit a no-out double. winn in to PH. boog bunts him over to 3B.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
I'm okay with that play
Down by one, you play for the tie. It greatly increases the probability you get one run, while decreasing the probability of scoring more than one run
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Let's see...
The probability of scoring one run:
0 out, man on 2nd: .609
1 out, man on 3rd: .648
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
the point is we needed more than one run to win the game.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
Lowers the margin of error?
There are a lot more ways a man can score from 3rd, so I’d think it increases the margin of error
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Yeah, but you only have 1 outs to work with instead of 2
Check the run probability table, I’d bet it’s more likely to score 1 run with a runner on 2 and no outs than 1 with a runner on 3 on 1 out.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
...what? I posted the probabilties
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Where did you get your run expectancy data?
Because the Baseball Prospectus Run Expectancy is like this:
Runner on 2nd, 0 out: 1.08
Runner on 3rd, 1 out: 0.92
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
he's looking at 1 run probability, not run expectancy
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
My mistake.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
It's okay, just go to your room for an hour
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
he's a blogger.
Which means his room is in his parents basement. Make him go outside or something if you want to punish him.
"Go talk to a girl. Face to face."
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
This is why I'm not going to VEB day.
I will have to leave my mother’s basement, attend a baseball game live, watch the baseball game (as opposed to simply looking at spreadsheets telling me what happened), and—worst of all—talk to girls. Face to face. The horror…the horror…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
there's gonna be girls at VEB day?
is anyone paying them?
by d-dee on Jun 17, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
They're from the Little Sisters of Mercy charity brothel.
They over charge expensive clients in order to help out those with real needs.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 17, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I assume that spants and ClemsonGirl
will be there, right?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I'm no medical expert
But I think we’re going to need to drill a hole in your chest
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
(shrugs)
I hung out with a friend and her sick baby. Three days later – BAM – illness from hell.
Regression, bitches.
If that was effective then I'd be well.
I take aspirin everyday. :) I just have a terrible immune system. I don’t get sick that often anymore, but when I do it is usually terrible.
Regression, bitches.
Try a Neti Pot to clear out your brain
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 17, 2010 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
well that was about as far as
my medical expertise goes. from here on out i can only wish you to get well real soon
Never trust a baby.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
by azruavatar on Jun 17, 2010 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
Don't you mean,
“stab a hole in her chest”?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
whoops, I thought that was the run expectancy... okay so your right
still not a big difference though
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
do the probabilities take in to account shifts in infield positioning?
Seems to me w/ a man on 2nd, nobody out, you have a normal depth infield. W/ a man on 3rd,1 out, the infield comes in, which in theory means you’re more likely to be able to get a single through the holes (b/c the holes are bigger).
Put another way, seems like your BABIP should go up b/c drawing the infield in (much like the IBB) is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. It increases the odds of getting out of the inning w/ no runs scoring by simultaneously increasing the odds of yielding a big inning.
(just thinking out loud here)
It's an empirical study
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Run expectancy 2:
The Empirical Strikes Back
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Right
I guess I question the premise of “down by one, play for the tie.” I know there’s some conventional wisdom about playing for the tie at home, but does anyone know if this has been tested?
Adios Esposito.
Adios Sarge. Say a prayer for Surf Boy...wherever he is.
I don't know that it's been tested
I do know that I trust our bullpen a hell of a lot more than I trust Seattle’s bullpen
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
i was okay with it too
but apparently bunting is bad. according to fangraphs, our win expectancy went from 46.2% after the stavinoha double to 43.8% after boog’s bunt.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
i guess what the numbers can't take into account
is whether it’s a fast or slow runner on base, and where you are in the lineup, and thus who it is doing the bunting? i didn’t see anything wrong with the bunt there, except that we didn’t end up scoring (tony had a good situation with the right players involved to squeeze, especially on 3-1 when vargas is going to try to throw a strike).
it’s not like we used rasmus to bunt yadi over with boog and schu coming up. winn is fast, the infield was in, lopex was up, who’s been hitting a lot of pretty deep flies, and as a team we were hitting a lot of flies off vargas, and then holliday was on deck with albert in the hole, virtually guaranteeing holliday would get something to hit. we were obviously playing for one run rather than multiple, but i don’t mind that either at that point in the game, which also has to be considered – it was the eighth inning, not the third, which if it were would be a problem.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I think my biggest problem is taking the bat out of Albert's hands
with the bunt there, you’re effectively saying that Lopez is out #2, which makes Holliday out #3. I think you need to let them swing away and go for the win, with Albert up.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions
are you talking about boog's sac bunt
or if lopex had squeeze bunted for the tie?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
the sac bunt
I actually don’t mind the squeeze bunt, now and again. TLR doesn’t seem to do it that much, though. I think there’s also an argument instead of squeezing to intentionally hit a weak grounder down the 2B line, as it should minimise the chance of being out at home. I’m surprised no-ones tried to master the “swinging bunt”.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
i think donovan solano has
at least he had in spring training, with about five swinging bunt hits.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I understand it with a man on 1B
but with a guy on 2B, there’s no double play, and pretty much any out in play has a good chance of advancing the runner anyhow. Plus, Boog’s hitting pretty well.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions
what's happened to him?
I like Morton.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions
C'mon, would you really trust a team with Jonah Hill as the assistant GM?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
I tried really hard to dislike that guy
but then his appearance on the Daily Show happened and he kind of won me over. And surprisingly, Get him to the Greek was not half bad.
Oh I don't dislike him. It just seems weird that he, of all people, is playing Paul DePodesta
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
DePodesta looks like Paul Rudd
That would make sense, if they were going for similarity and stuff.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 17, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I get really shitty and have to send out another text that says
“I woke up in a hooters uniform, come get me.”
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
If he said it,
I wouldn’t bet that it hasn’t already happened. He’s just telling us how his weekend is going to go is all.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 17, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, "another" as in "again"
and I turn 30 Sat Night/Sunday Morning….The roller girls are taking me to the east side if I’m still standing after the after after party.
pics of me crying wearing a tiara will happen. promise.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
pics of me crying wearing a tiara will happen. promise.
I hear the chicks really dig that look, though.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 8:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Back in my day, we had to use a pay phone to call for help like that.
wait…what?
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
What kind of plan did you have?
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 17, 2010 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
The "What the hell is a cell phone?" plan.
Low minutes, good rate. Crappy coverage.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Yep,
I remember when my dad got a “cell phone” in his work car in the late 70’s. The unit in the trunk was about the size of a refrigerator cooling unit. It had a battery that looked like a small 12 volt. probably worked about 1/2 the time and that was in town.lol
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 17, 2010 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Those can text too, right?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
They had to,
otherwise why have the letters on the keys.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 17, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Matt Holliday is the team's leading hitter during the series.
Colby Rasmus gives an awkward interview.
Chris Carpenter thinks about giving a fuck but decides against it.
I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons
by hazel on Jun 17, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Daric Barton
executes a sacrifice bunt, but it escapes Billy Beane’s notice because he is too consumed listening to his soccer podcasts.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Interesting argument down there in the comments
similar to one above in this thread about bunting.
"I told you, I don't like to be manhandled!"
Which number? There's a lot of them...
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Oh yeah. Screw that guy (Chris)
He doesn’t know what he’s talking about
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
seems he doesn't want to know either.
there may have been a point buried somewhere around one of his disjointed arguments but he hid it very well amongst the baiting of sabermetric users and general nonsense.
"I told you, I don't like to be manhandled!"
There's one of those guys at every blog
I don’t really care if you don’t use sabermetrics, but at least TRY and understand it before you discount it
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
rec'd for the carpenter line
and for the hope that holliday could be good again.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
i really hope he doesn't become our barry zito
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker on Jason Motte
Austin Wilson, please don't be a tease!
Cards take the first two
but lose game 3 because of a Crazy Tony lineup that has Miles at 1B and Stavinoha at 3rd. Also, Reyes pitches.
I have a hate relationship with the Cardinals' roster makeup decisions. | Cards on Cards
Man, the quality of the articles on fangraphs has really dropped
This article is stupid. Okay, Ubaldo had a lucky start. It happens. But to call it “unimpressive?”
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
That's funny because there is a discussion on Tango's blog about a recent BPro article showing that Ubaldo's season has been lucky thus far
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/jimenezs_luck/
I actually applauded it because it seems as though the FanGraphs crowd has been afraid to say that Jimenez has been lucky, even though he clearly has been by their metrics. Of course Jack does his usual terribly written article that takes away from what might be a good point. I don’t know why he had to focus on only one start either – Ubaldo’s whole season screams luck.
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
It seems as if their posts don't have much meat on the bone.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
It's bad when the free portion of a BPro post has so much more substance than the top three entire fangraphs posts.
I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons
Since you are a stats guy why don't you take a look at hitters who switch leagues
people like Cameron spend so much time dismissing the NL they act like half of the AL would dominate the NL. the pitchers having a tough time makes sense to me but claiming Hitters have a hard time going from NL to AL
Time is the best teacher; Unfortunately it kills all its students
Cameron is a blowhard
I really can’t stand him tbh.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions
The "What team X should do" posts have really pissed me off
because they’re just such a lot of hot air. They don’t actually even ATTEMPT to say what the team should do in most cases. “The Brewers are out of it this year, Fielder’s team control lasts for one more season, and they have a mediocre farm system”. Errr, yeah, I knew that – so what should they actually be looking to do?
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions
The sheer volume of posts
…seems a bad idea for Fangraphs. Their writers seem like they have to write often, so they just look through the numbers, pick something random and run with it. Or make fun of Omar Minaya or Dayton Moore. I think I could do that.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 17, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely agreed
the signal to noise ratio has become very poor. The posts I mentioned above (“what should TEAM X do?”) are an example – I assume there’ll be 30 of them, and they’ll horribly dilute the other, interesting, more specific posts.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions
diner
is a loogy who can’t get the job done. sorry, but it’s the sad truth.
and, that aside, jeff passan is still ripping the cards (look towards the bottom of the article)
Albert's grand slam, 7/3/09
@zoomzoomj88
Boog's stache is back!
...wow. Passan's an ass
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
immediately after he got done typing that
he sighed and resumed jerking off to his 1985 World Series commemorative Sports Illustrated.
by nota bene on Jun 17, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
what a fucking dickface.
pretty much all of that is completely unnecessary.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
i mean, hate the cardinals if you want to. even hate their fans.
but when you make fun of the Arch, you’ve gone too far. Its a fucking national monument. Honestly, who makes fun of the Arch? He looks ridiculously petty.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
Exactly, how does he have a job baiting a fanbase like that?
All he is trying to do is inspire more hateful emails towards him so he can write another article or use it out of context to rag on Cards fans some more.
He really is a massive tool.
'Real women know that the way to a man's heart...is through a melee attack!' - KB
Formerly known as The_teague
KC skyline has undergone some changes recently
and really, if you drive in from the right direction, it’s up on a hill so it can be pretty cool looking.
But there is nothing, period, anywhere in the KC Metro as commanding as the Arch. Comparing it to McDonald’s? Please. On the national TV broadcasts in STL, you get the Arch framed very nicely out there in center.
On the national TV broadcasts in KC, you get a nice shot of I-70 and the fucking Fellowship of Christian Athletes building. Bravo.
I would say the Arch is the most impressive piece of architecture I've seen in the US
other than maybe the Flatiron and Chrysler buildings (and perhaps even ahead of them). It’s beautiful.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Was he born a Cubs fan? Or KC fan or something?
He should come to East St. Louis so we can show him some real nice Cardinals fans.
'Real women know that the way to a man's heart...is through a melee attack!' - KB
Formerly known as The_teague
by Heisenberg on Jun 17, 2010 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
he worked for the kc star
before joining yahoo
Albert's grand slam, 7/3/09
@zoomzoomj88
Boog's stache is back!
And there it is. (if the image slows down the thread, collapse it)
'Real women know that the way to a man's heart...is through a melee attack!' - KB
Formerly known as The_teague
i just had a seizure
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker on Jason Motte
Austin Wilson, please don't be a tease!
i really wish you could leave comments on this article
i have half a mind to send him a letter that is both rational and well written while gently explaining all the ways in which he sucks at life.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
by IHeartBoog on Jun 17, 2010 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i'm going to
i can’t stand this guy anymore.
Albert's grand slam, 7/3/09
@zoomzoomj88
Boog's stache is back!
He covered baseball for the KC Star
I can only assume this is the root of his hate for St. Louis.
So I guess my response to Jeff Passan would be: “I’d make fun of the iconic things about the place where you’re from, too, except that there sorta aren’t any of those things to make fun of, so…”
they're not even legitimate criticisms
STL style BBQ? No, insult anything but our BBQ. And I will add that this past Sunday I went to a BBQ festival in NYC and Pappy’s was there. The Pappy’s booth—serving STL style ribs—literally shut down the city in a block each direction. Had a line 3 or 4 times longer than any other booth and everyone was saying it was the best BBQ they had ever tasted.
I've always thought it's pretty hilarious how polarizing Imo's Pizza is
I mean, I love Imo’s. I probably miss Imo’s more than anything about living in St. Louis. And I’m happy to tell people how much I love Imo’s. But people who don’t like Imo’s seem to REALLY REALLY HATE IT. Like, any time St. Louis or food or any combination of the two things is brought up, they start raging about how Imo’s is just disgusting processed crap on a piece of cardboard and blah blah blah.
Like, seriously, I don’t care that you don’t like it. And I’m not standing here with a piece of it trying to shove it in your facehole. So chill the hell out.
the goofy part
is people have this idea that it’s some sort of burn on the whole city if you dis Imo’s.
Like, any time St. Louis or food or any combination of the two things is brought up, they start raging about how Imo’s is just disgusting processed crap on a piece of cardboard and blah blah blah.
Because it’s all we eat. Duh. And we drink a lot of beer. We do that instead of drinking water. That’s what They say anyway, so it must be true.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 17, 2010 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I use toasted ravioli as a loofah.
Regression, bitches.
by spants on Jun 17, 2010 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I know
and toasted rav is suppose to be toasted in an oven. I know some places deep fry them…but still.
I could go for some steamed hams right now
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Passan is too stupid to insult
he wrote an article that displayed a level of fundamental idiocy I thought human beings were nearly incapable of. You know, about Big Saber and its limitless profits. Again, too stupid to insult.
he's just frustrated because
he’s aware of how irrelevant he is
still, i am curios to see if he can duck a 92 mph samsonite flying at his head. just saying
by d-dee on Jun 17, 2010 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Is there even a point to all of that?
Besides bitching about St. Louis stuff?
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Sometimes when I'm bored
I’ll buy the rattiest, cheapest, gross pork steak I can. Then I drive to this shittiest part of East St. Louis that I know, next to an old abandoned house that currently serves as a brothel — I think — and I’ll throw that raw, dirty meat into a pack of stray dogs. As the dogs tear it apart and fight each other since there’s barely enough to feed one animal much less 12, I laugh to myself that it’s so easy to get them that riled up. It always makes me feel better.
I imagine Jeff Passan feels much the same way about Cardinals fans as I do about stray dogs in East St. Louis based on 50 comments about a worthless article he wrote in about 10 minutes.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
by azruavatar on Jun 17, 2010 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
I'm allegory to cats.
I'm out of champagna. How about some 7-Up and Mad Dog 20/20?
by The Continental on Jun 17, 2010 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Yeah. Next time he writes something shitty, someone should excerpt it so we don't give Passan pageviews.
Regression, bitches.
by spants on Jun 17, 2010 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
needs moar recs.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I remember one time when he was on Jim Rome(I was channel-surfing and happened on it, I don't watch the fucker except on accident).
And Rome asked him about us being the BFIBs, thought the dude was going to spaz out for a minute, He said," I don’t know about them being the BFIB, the most obnoxious maybe but not the best." I thought to myself," Man who pissed in your Wheaties?"
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 17, 2010 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey does anyone know if the KTRS still offers those random tickets at 2 for 11 really early in the morning?
(Insert Your Own Joke)
Yeah they still do.
Done it three times this year. Got seats down the right field line all three times.
"I told you, I don't like to be manhandled!"
Really? You can run empirical analyses, teach yourself pretty advanced statistics and MySQL
And not go to www.stlcardinals.com?
5:15 our time
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
I didn't want to open a new browser and have to deal with converting CT to PT
by vivaelpujols on Jun 17, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh... didn't look at the date
Whelp, now I look like a douche
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
i got really excited because i thought maybe we were making up some rainout and i was wrong about the offday
damn you mysterui….damn you!
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
that's it
this thread is unnecessarily cruel
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
getting IHB's hopes up and all.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
this seems to be your mistake
going here
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jun 17, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I forgot to mention earlier
that is a badass pic of brendan, he’s kind of doing a spiderman move
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 17, 2010 7:41 PM EDT reply actions
looks like some of the late 80s marvel comics that I bought
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 17, 2010 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions
i just looked at the reds' attendance
they’re averaging just under 22,000 fans a game (24th in the mlb) despite having the record they do. quite surprising.
Albert's grand slam, 7/3/09
@zoomzoomj88
Boog's stache is back!
asshat .
speaking of the reds
is it wrong that i keep watching rolen and dusty scream in the ump’s face over and over again?
Only if you're not giggling
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
i have a smile so big
the ends of my mouth could connect on the back of my head causing my face to fall off
..i should stop watching this..
...
this shows the whole thing
Albert's grand slam, 7/3/09
@zoomzoomj88
Boog's stache is back!
asshat .
and in all fairness
that looked like it was at scotty’s ankles
Albert's grand slam, 7/3/09
@zoomzoomj88
Boog's stache is back!
asshat .
In their defense, that was a pretty wretched call
by jd is legend on Jun 17, 2010 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm not laughing cause they got screwed
(rolen should have been called K’d on the previous pitch)
i just like the yelling and swearing
it was a makeup call - the previous pitch should have been a backwards K
not that that excuses it
blarg
?
Isn’t that the same douche ump that Yadi went ballistic on and stripped off all his gear at home plate? People should not be allowed to be that bad at their job and still be employed.
that was cool
the yadi thing. He shouldn’t be able to get away with it but I enjoyed it at the time. Ding dang ole drama queen.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions
i love how
A ) the catcher got up and started coming to the mound as if he knew it was ball 4 – then hearing strike 3, he points at kershaw and goes “oh, nice pitch”
B ) the fsn base meter showed the bases loaded.
everyone knew it was a ball but the ump
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker on Jason Motte
Austin Wilson, please don't be a tease!
it's funny how, for pitches not put into play
everyone in the world has access to fancy electronic gadgetry to help them make sense of the complicated space-time relationship between baseball, knees, belt, and plate, except the one guy whose decision really matters.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
I thought it would be dumb by the title
but it wasn’t bad. Rob Corrdry’s character was the highlight of the movie.
'Real women know that the way to a man's heart...is through a melee attack!' - KB
Formerly known as The_teague
*whisper*
‘Great White Buffalo’
'Real women know that the way to a man's heart...is through a melee attack!' - KB
Formerly known as The_teague
I heard Roger Clemens is making a comeback
no thanks
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 17, 2010 10:21 PM EDT reply actions
j/k
http://blog.prorumors.com/2010/06/rumors/rogers-clemens-to-make-a-comeback-to-pitch-batting-practice-to-minor-leaguers/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:prorumors(PRO+Rumors)&utm_content=FaceBook
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 17, 2010 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
eh, clemens has always pitched bp to his son's teams
i don’t really have a problem with that – just a typical dad.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Does anyone know where I can go and watch the US v Slovenia game tomorrow down by the stadium?
I’m full of questions with no contributions. Sorry guys.
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Jun 17, 2010 10:23 PM EDT reply actions
your nick is a fantastic song.
"The outfield is deep and playing him straight-away, and the infield is the same, except first, second, third, and short are playing him to pull."
-Mike Shannon
by tehzachatak on Jun 17, 2010 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
one of radiohead's finest moments imo
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 17, 2010 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
they've got a lot of fine moments
but that’s certainly one of them
"The outfield is deep and playing him straight-away, and the infield is the same, except first, second, third, and short are playing him to pull."
-Mike Shannon
by tehzachatak on Jun 18, 2010 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
that Chase Utley, uh
yeah
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 17, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
this has probably been discussed in length
but i’m curious as to how people felt about the holliday at bat last night in the eighth. holliday is one of my favorite players and i’ll defend him until the day i die so i’m probably biased BUT i think holliday was unfairly dumped on after that inning last night. with a man on third and one out, felipe lopez absolutely took the worst at bat in that inning. lopez probably had a 3 or 4 times greater chance of knocking the run in and since he did it, put holliday in a spot where he only had about a 30% chance of knocking the run in. it was made worse by the fact that lopez had worked a 3-1 count in his favor when he popped the ball up.
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by stlcardinalsfang on Jun 17, 2010 10:57 PM EDT reply actions
You're probably correct in your assessment,
but I would say that him getting dumped on was more of a cumulative effect than that specific circumstance. If he had knocked in 50 RBIs and was batting .315 and strikes out I doubt he gets booed.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 17, 2010 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
this is true.
and i know it’s almost all cumulative, but just seemed unfair that holliday got dumped on for not getting a base hit and lopez didn’t for not getting a fly ball in the air. on a 3-1 count, no less.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jun 17, 2010 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm slow tonight
what are you referring to?
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jun 17, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
how much more Holliday gets paid than Lopez
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 17, 2010 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions
i don't agree with your point, BUT
17 times? really? i thought for sure lopez was making a seven digit number this season.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jun 17, 2010 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
fair enough
i was operating under holliday’s 16+ less deferred salary.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jun 17, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Lopez has quite a few incentives though
all of which he’ll meet, IIRC, so he’ll end up getting 2 or 3m ultimately, I believe.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jun 18, 2010 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions
i think it was 2.15 or thereabouts
i hope he makes the incentives – i don’t want him sitting the bench for schu.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
It's expectations.
Not saying that Lopez didn’t make the more major fuck-up of the two. But people are going to expect more from Holliday. Right, wrong, or indifferent. I realize that the contract is the central and weakest point in the argument but people expect Holliday to go around with a blue suit and a red cape. And when he has had as little success as doing what his whole selling point was, the casual fan is not going to be happy for very long.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 18, 2010 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions
leave the money out of it.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jun 18, 2010 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions
well, fwiw, i think they have similar WPA's for the season
and both are negative, so perhaps we should have expected just what happened. i’d say lopex was probably the bigger fail of the two, since he could score the run with an out, but then holliday is the better hitter, so more is probably expected of him, so it’s probably a wash perception-wise.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i absolutely, 100% agree with you.
"The outfield is deep and playing him straight-away, and the infield is the same, except first, second, third, and short are playing him to pull."
-Mike Shannon
by tehzachatak on Jun 18, 2010 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Lopez had nothing but bad AB's last night
He’s been doing a good job this year, but, man, was he off last night.
by ArkansasTravs on Jun 18, 2010 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions
yes...
usually those days where i have little class to attend and am blowing off homework.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jun 17, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
ha
I was told to cut back on facebook at work. I just assumed cut back on all internet activities. but yeah, kinda burnt out on the internet anyway
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 17, 2010 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
does anyone have a last.fm profile
off day, bored
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 17, 2010 11:19 PM EDT reply actions
i actually just started up a new one
couldn’t remember my old one, and this phone will scrobble what i listen to on it, so i set up a new one
http://www.google.com/support/forum/p/Google+Mobile/thread?tid=231ff1f08c0037ca&hl=en
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jun 17, 2010 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
whoops
http://www.last.fm/user/prophetjohn
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jun 17, 2010 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
cool
sent you a friend request on there
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 17, 2010 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions
added
you’re older than i thought you were. and you listen to a lot of stuff i’m not familiar with. amon tobin is the only one on your recently played list i know of. cool
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jun 18, 2010 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
most people are impressed by my music library
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 18, 2010 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
rarely have i seen someone else who knows of Shpongle
you sir, props.
"The outfield is deep and playing him straight-away, and the infield is the same, except first, second, third, and short are playing him to pull."
-Mike Shannon
by tehzachatak on Jun 18, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
if I haven't heard of the band
it is probably a very obscure or local band that does not have much media presence
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 18, 2010 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
john zorn rulz
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 18, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
ha
I actually have my Lollapalooza ’93 t-shirt on, the last time I saw dinosaur jr
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 18, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
one of those bands
that i always meant to check out. finally got around to it recently
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Jun 18, 2010 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I listen to them occasionally
I think Where You Been or Green Mind are still my favorites
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 18, 2010 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
yup
"The outfield is deep and playing him straight-away, and the infield is the same, except first, second, third, and short are playing him to pull."
-Mike Shannon
by tehzachatak on Jun 18, 2010 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I went ahead and sent you guys a friend request.
I like trying other people’s music at random sometimes, so please friend me.
http://www.last.fm/user/AWATD
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Jun 18, 2010 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions
This is kinda random, but are you the guy on Mortigi Tempo that I was talking to on here last year.
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Jun 18, 2010 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions
yes.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jun 17, 2010 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions
it was worth it just for the Rondo steal and subsequent 3 pointer
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 17, 2010 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions
you could always
imagine Brendan Ryan at that moment and how he narrowly avoids injury
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
VEB Day:Just got Serious
Saturday, June 19 Tickets Busch Stadium | 6:15 PM CT
OAK Ben Sheets, RHP (2-6, 4.93)
Athletics (33-35) @ STL Adam Wainwright, RHP (9-4, 2.41)
Cardinals (36-30)
Athletics: Sheets will receive two extra days of rest this week before facing the Cardinals for the 27th time in his career. During his eight-year tenure with Milwaukee, Sheets struggled against St. Louis, the only team to hand him double-digit losing decisions. For his career, Sheets is 6-14 with a 4.05 ERA against the Cardinals. In his last start against the Giants on June 12, Sheets went six innings, allowing five runs (three earned) on eight hits and three walks while striking out two. He has now completed at least six innings in each of his last eight starts and in 11 of his 14 outings on the year.
Cardinals: After a somewhat uncharacteristic start at Dodger Stadium, Wainwright looked more like himself his last time out. Which is to say he looked like one of the National League’s best pitchers. He’s been absolutely brilliant at home this year, going 6-0 with a 1.96 ERA in six starts at Busch Stadium, and he’s averaged 7 2/3 innings per game in those starts. Against the less-than-imposing A’s offense, he should be in line for another excellent outing.
lots of 6 in there
*now with more veterany veteranness and a higher grit factor
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 18, 2010 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Matt Holliday has a new walk-up song (he did on Wednesday)
its Not Afraid
im guessing here… but its not the refrain, its somewhere around these lyrics:
“Cause ain’t no way I’m let you stop me from causing mayhem
When I say ‘em or do something I do it, I don’t give a damn
What you think, I’m doing this for me, so fuck the world
Feed it beans, it’s gassed up, if a thing’s stopping me
I’mma be what I set out to be, without a doubt undoubtedly
And all those who look down on me I’m tearing down your balcony”
im positive i don’t give a damn what you think is in it only because i thought it was pretty fitting given his RISP failures (not sure if this is a coincidence or not, but still interesting)
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
that's sad--i really liked (making fun of) his old one.
i was at the game on wednesday and didn’t even notice he had a new walk up song. guess that shows how much i paid attention.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jun 18, 2010 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions
to be fair, the walkup songs normally aren't a person's first priority in watching a game
some cardinals however have made a name for themselves with their songs – Ryan Ludwick and Brass Monkey are synonymous with me forever
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 18, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
sometimes Albertofstan is a real place.
BJRains A surprise pitcher showed up to throw the first pitch Thursday night at the Pujols All-Star Game….Stan Musial. Stood up and looked great. 11 minutes ago via web
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
It's like people chose to accept that randomness plays a role in every baseball statline expect for when discussing a pitcher they really, really like (or dislike in the case of Smoltz)
Results are never a good representation of what has actually happened (in a small sample size).
by vivaelpujols on Jun 18, 2010 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions
well, it's the only way anyone will ever win 30 games
so I, for one, am rooting for him to stay lucky, so I can tell my grandkids that I saw Garcia beat Jimenez in Colorado the year Jimenez won 30 games.
But yeah, fangraphs articles add less to the discussion that ESPN articles these days. And the comments are just as bad- it used to be a nice place for discussion, but you basically have to quote the group-think of the week to not be voted down these days. very sad.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
first of all, this is merely a look at runs-scored distribution
i’m not looking at RA, and so it therefore has nothing to do with pythag at this point – maybe it’s a precursor to that type of discussion.
only looking at the cardinals run distribution i realized wouldn’t tell me much without something to compare it to. so i sort of randomly picked the angels for juxtaposition – i say sort of because the angels have historically outperformed pythag, whereas we are currently underperforming (and that’s the last i’ll mention pythag)
turns out the angels were a good team to pick – very similar to the cards:
the angels are 37-32 for a .536 w/%; the cards are 36-30 for a .545 – can’t get closer than that considering they have played 69 games to our 66.
the angels average 4.39 runs/game; the cards average 4.44 runs/game – these averages would mean the angels score 711 runs this year and the cards 719.
the angels and cards have both scored between 0 and 12 runs in each game this year, with at least one tally in each of the 13 columns.
to put the numbers on a 162-game scale i used 2.35 as a multiplier for the angels and 2.45 for the cards (69 and 66 games played respectively), which is a workable approximation. thus, if the angels scored 4 runs in a game 10 different times this year, that would become 23.5 times on a 162-game scale, which i didn’t round up or down at that point, as the columns were grouped, as you will see below, and then the total was rounded.
since we each average between 4 and 5 runs a game i grouped these two columns together. the angels score 4 or 5 runs a game 45 times this year, or 28% of the time, whereas the cards are at 39 times for 24% of the time.
the next group is between 3 and 6 runs, so obviously includes the above numbers. the angels score in this range 85 times this year, or 53%. the cards are 71 times for 44%.
the next group is between 2 and 7 runs. the angels numbers are 116 times for 70%; the cards are 98 times for 60%.
the next group is the famine group, 0 or 1 run. the angels are 23 times for 15%; the cards are 37 times for 23%.
the final group is the feast group, 8-12 runs. the angels are 23 times again/15%; the cards are 27 times for 17%. of course we are concerned with runs scored, and this group is where they come in bunches, so i calculated the runs each team scored in each of these columns, scaled it to 162, added them up, and the angels score 218 runs in this feast group on the year, or 31% of their total, and the cards score 256 runs for 36% of their total.
to sum it up, in the “center” (2-7 runs), the angels are at 70% and then 30% at the extremes, evenly divided at 15% each end, and the cards are at 60% center with the other 40% tilted slightly toward the low end, at 23% compared to 17% on the high end (the cards have been shut out 6 times this year; the angels have been shut out once – this could be an AL-NL thing, as perhaps there are likely fewer shutouts in the AL with the DH).
i’m not sure what to make of it, but unscientifically i would say the angels have been more consistent in their run-scoring as far as deviating from the mean, but whether there is any actual statistical significance i don’t know.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Perhaps you should've compared to another NL team since the Angels enjoy an extra batter in their lineup.
Regression, bitches.
maybe i'll pick a NL team too
the angels were just so similar to us in all their numbers while being on the opposite side of the pythag performance line…i don’t know if the dh matters or not, since we’re just looking at run distribution and it’s deviation from the team’s mean, but then the shutout thing could be a factor if indeed, as one would suspect, there are fewer shutouts in the AL because of that damn DH. then again, i grouped the 0 and 1 runs-scored games together, so maybe 1-run scored is the AL equivalent of a shutout? it’s all beyond me at this point.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
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