FanPost

Summer Hollidays

With the idea that Matt Holliday progresses as the season rolls along in hitting abilities, I thought I would detail his splits listed on fangraphs.com, based on his career totals by month of the season.

In the first month of the season, Matt Holliday's career OPS is .845. In May, he averages .912... June .915. Then July he really gets going career-wise, at 1.029. In August, historically he tires a bit, at .902 (but this is offset by a relatively terrible August in his first season). Down the stretch in the last month, he's hitting .994 OPS for his career. Nice.

To check on his weighted on-base average, or wOBA (a more accurate, linear weighted version of OPS, for those saber initiates), we see this progression:

April: .362 (in 2009 he was at a dismal .286 wOBA!)

May: .392

June: .396

July: .432

August: .387 (bad rookie year August brings it down)

September: .420

Next, wRC+, or weighted runs created, adjusted by park factors and normalized by season so that league average is at 100 and is basically similar to OPS+:

April: 115

May: 136

June: 137

July: 161

August: 131 (again, he had a really bad August in his rookie season)

September: 153

So, by three different stats that are well known for describing a hitter's offensive abilities, we can see there is some evidence that he heats up as the summer progresses, which is kind of weird. I guess it is one of his statistical quirks and he feels more comfortable batting in the summer months, or perhaps he needs to get readjusted to playing after each season.

So how does his 2010 compare to this so far? In April his OPS was .814, and in May it is .844. Both lower than normal, but not that far off (well, ok. his May this year was pretty disappointing I must admit, compared to a career .912 OPS in May). The oddest part of his 2010 May, is that his ISO is at .119... which is .220 for his career. A major power outage there.

As far as wOBA goes, .354 in March this year, and .377 in May. He's heating up and closer to his career norm monthly splits in this stat. wRC+ in April: 122. in May 2010: 136. This shows that this is a pretty normal year for him, stat-wise so far, since he did better than his usual career April, and is right at his career norm for May. Encouraging I think... just worried about that low isolated power in May (in April it was .193, above his career norm). All in all, I'm not too worried about Holliday's performance this year, I think that he will do better once he gets going for the season. By the way, in his career he hits most of his home runs in September...

While I'm looking up stats, I thought I'd see how the rest of the team is doing after May.

 

  • The Cardinals are 9th in WAR for position players in mlb
  • Cards are 5th in WAR for pitchers in the majors (I was very surprised that the Cubs are 3rd!)
  • In fielding by UZR, we are stuck in the middle of the pack again (I'd really like to see this become more of a team strength, maybe they are trying too hard? or not hard enough?)
  • Matt Holliday, David Freese, and Ryan Ludwick have been our most reliable fielders so far. Skip Schumaker and, oddly enough, Colby Rasmus, are not so good (or at least, UZR does not like them this year)
  • Ryan Franklin has quietly dominated at closer and has 10 saves. he has the best FIP on the team at 2.34, and is second to only Dennys in WHIP
  • speaking of Diner, he has also quietly dominated with an ERA of .54! But xFIP says that he has been extremely lucky, since that is nearly 4 points higher than his ERA at 4.45 (his FIP is even worse than that)
  • Adam Wainwright is already worth 2.3 WAR, is the sixth best starting pitcher in the major leagues with a 2.72 FIP, 4th best in majors in xFIP at 3.15 (behind only Halladay and Lincecum in the NL)
  • Jaime Garcia continues his astounding rookie season: 1.14 ERA, only Ubaldo has a better ERA in the majors. a 3.06 FIP is 2nd best on the team
  • Jason Motte has a nice K/BB ratio of 4.6... Franklin's is off the charts at 13! Motte has been our best reliever in xFIP at 3.19. Only Frankie gives him any competition in '10
  • Trever Miller's season so far is rather confusing. a pretty decent to great ERA, but a horrible FIP and HR/9... still, his WHIP is very good at .94
  • Pujols, Freese, Ludwick, Rasmus, Holliday, and Lopez are our best hitters on the team, no big surprise there really. Albert leads the pack in runs created, followed by Ludwick, Holliday and Freese. Colby is 2nd in wOBA. Pujols, Freese, and Rasmus have the best OBP on the team
  • Pujols is finally ahead of Braun in wOBA, so order has been restored to the universe
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