Minor League Stats: Sustainable or Not?

The big talk about the Cardinals is always whether a hitter or pitcher can sustain how they are doing.  (How long can Jaime keep this up.....Will Kyle Lohse rebounds?)  Well, I thought I would do a little something of my own for minor league stats.  Granted, this will be far from perfect anyalsis as I'm new to the this, but I did the best with what I could.

And I'm just using hitters and pitchers that are doing good and hitters and pitchers who are doing terrible.  Anything in between is ignored unless they have an unusual BABIP.

Memphis Redbirds

Jon Jay, OF

I know he's in St. Louis right now, but the majority of his stats were accumulated in Memphis and its probably even more relevant to see if his stats are for real or not.

Current Average - .347

BABIP - .371

Of course its not sustainable, but .371 isn't that bad considering how high his average is in the first place.  Not to mention he's a contact guy so I'd be willing to bet a .320 average could be his average at the end of the season (if he in fact gets demoted again).

Mark Shorey, OF

Shorey has had a good start, but as a right fielder, he has no home runs which will get you no where as long as you're in this farm system stocked with outfielders

Current Average - .318

BABIP - .483

This would put him at second in the majors.  The problem is of course that his average isn't spectacular.  I mean .318 average is GOOD, but with that BABIP, I'm expecting him to drop way off.  He better develop some power otherwise he'll never see the club (I don't think he will either way).

Daniel Delasco, 2B

Delasco has been mentioned as a favorite to replace Schumacher in two years because of course of the cheap years that we would get.  So he's extremely relevant at this point.

Current Average - .304

BABIP - .325

That's very encouraging to me.  He's got a good average and he's not getting overly lucky.  If he can duplicate Schumacher's consistency in hitting .300 and provide slightly better defense, he would be a great option to replace Skip.

Donovan Solano, 2B/SS

Solano is off to a cold start.... worse than Brendan Ryan-esque cold start in fact.  That's not very easy to do and that's no knock on Brendan who seems to be working his way out of it.

Current Average - .131

BABIP - .154

His BABIP is almost as bad as his average.  He doesn't strike out much so putting Solano back out there isn't a bad plan.  He also batted .307 (with a .296 BABIP) between Springfield and Memphis so I expect it'll even out eventually.

Matt Pagnozzi, C

Pagnozzi is great at defense (I think) and as far as his hitting goes, well let's just say if he has a low BABIP, it might not be bad luck.

Current Average - .178

BABIP - .258

Wow, well this is kind of pathethic.  His BABIP, I would expect, should only be about 10-20 points higher given his poor contact skills and that's not a good sign at all since he's batting .178.  So that means, what, he raises his average up to .200...

Bryan Anderson, C

Anderson was a high rated prospect and then dropped drastically for whatever reason (injuries; decline in performance) in rankings.  So far he's off to a good start and even made the MLB roster.

Current Average - .290

BABIP - .308

Anderson is just proving his worth hitting-wise.  I don't know where he got the bad rap as a fielder, but at this point I wouldn't mind a solid hitting lefty backup catcher unless they can somehow manuever him a trade (doubtful)

Ruben Gotay, 2B

Gotay would be the emergency backup versatility man in case Felipe Lopez, Skip Schumacher, and David Freese all get injured. (I'm halfway joking)  But he's struggling right now and Delasco would be taken over him at this point.

Current Average - .200

BABIP - .220

He's definitely struggling, but as I found out earlier today from Mr. Monk, homers aren't factored into BABIP, and Gotay has four of them.  If homers were factored in, he'd have a .320 BABIP.  A lot different.


Evan MacLane, SP

MacLane has never really been considered a great prospect (maybe cause he's technically not; he's 27), but this year his stats have look ok.  Right now he is just 1-3, but he seems to be getting unlucky.

Current ERA - 4.01

Current FIP - 3.44

BABIP - .365

In some other stats, he has a 48% groundball rate which is below Duncan levels but solid otherwise.  His FB/HR rate is lower than league average at 5.7% which isn't a great sign since he's given up two homers already.  He's been sort of unlucky with line drives.  He's given up near league average at 18.8%, but hitters are batting an unsustainable .864% off them.

Lance Lynn, SP

Lynn is on most Top 5 prospects for the Cardinals and is my personal favorite to replace Penny when he leaves, but he needs to perform at the AAA level first.  He also has a bad record at 0-2.

Current ERA - 4.56

Current FIP - 4.29

BABIP - .247

This is far from good.  He's struggling and he's getting "lucky" in a sense.  I will give him more time, but things aren't exactly looking up.  To top things off, he has yet to give up a homer in this young season and this will inevitably happen.  He's also getting lucky with line drives.  He's allow line drives on 16.3% of his at-bats, but hitters are batting .692 off him.  This could happen, but league average is .750.

Adam Ottavino, SP 

I'm intrigued here as he is very close to the big league club.  One great 1st half from him and a bullpen injury and Ottavino could make it to the big club.

Current ERA - 5.00

Current FIP - 5.21

BABIP - .308

His FIP is inflated due to his high HR/FB rate of 23.5%.  That'll lower and I'm sure his ERA and FIP will follow suite.  Everything else isn't lucky nor unlucky so expect around a 4.00ish ERA (which is what I'd expect anyway)

Fernando Salas

He also could be called up for bullpen depth, but he is struggling right now.  Hopefully its luck and he'll come back to his talent level.

Current ERA - 6.75

Current FIP - 5.27

BABIP - .385

Well right off the bat he's just getting creamed on balls in play.  He also has a ridiculous - RIDICULOUS - LD% of 31%.  And his HR/FB rate is 20% as well.  He's getting extremely unlucky, so I'll give him until the All-Star break to even out his stats

Tyler Norrick, LOOGY

Norrick is the Cards backup LOOGY if need be.  By backup I mean if Reyes/Miller get hurt.  Not the worst case scenario in the world... wait let's see the stats first.

Current ERA - 9.00

Current FIP - 6.06

BABIP - .429

Obviously, this start is not typical of Norrick.  Batters are getting pretty lucky against him to be fair.  He's got a .286 split against lefties but that is aided by a .357 BABIP.  So he can get lefties out pretty effectively.  On the downside his HR/FB rate is 7.5% and while its a SSS, I would have expected this kind of start to be aided by homers.  He also needs to change that 41.2% FB otherwise he'll give up homers all the time.

I'll try to do some of the Springfield roster next week, and I left out some key players who are either older or have a slim-to-none chance of making the roster.  Or they are just average all around.  

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