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Jaime Garcia, Hawksworthiness

PHILADELPHIA - MAY 06:  Raul Ibanez #29 of the Philadelphia Phillies trots home after his fifth inning home run against Blake Hawksworth #53 of the St. Louis Cardinals at Citizens Bank Park on May 6, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Cardinals 7-2.  (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

In my blogger-revolutionary days I might have been unwilling to admit it, but at this point it's clear that I can look at the same outcomes for two different players and think conflicting adjectives—to be more precise, that I can't not do it. Chris Carpenter's hit-filled win against the Nationals was being described as "gutty" on Fox Sports Midwest as it was happening. Gutty is an ugly word, but a positive one—it focuses on the good result at the expense of certain off-putting moments that happened in the course of it. 

His outing was better—less of a long-term concern than Garcia's five pitch pitcher-walk—but it shouldn't, logically, be the dividing line between a "gutty" start and a "shaky" one. But so it goes: Veteran Cy Youngs emeritus have gutty starts where they allow a lot of baserunners; hotshot rookies whose arm problems still linger in the back of Hyperventilating Prospect Geek heads have shaky ones. 

It was good shaky, though. The walks came with a lot of strikeouts, delivered in his usual diverse way—sliders, fastballs, and cutters, all swinging—and there were no further occasions for Al to opine on the fundamental rightness of getting really mad after you give up a home run and have to be removed from the game. For his part, La Russa showed admirable restraint in pulling the rotation golden boy below both 100 pitches and six innings, cutting his Quality Start streak short at seven. 

Less-admirable restraint: The Cardinals failing to hit Anibal Sanchez, who for his part appears to be on his way to cutting his Lost Season streak short at three.

Star-divide

Just-plain-less admirable: Blake Hawksworth pitching himself out of high leverage situations.

This being a twenty-first century team, somebody has to be the long reliever, so Tony La Russa's understandable reluctance to put him in the crosshairs during his ugly May doesn't really hurt the Cardinals a lot, in terms of flexibility or wins and losses—somebody also had to pitch four innings today, so some (exceedingly small fraction) of the blame currently resting entirely on the bullpen and the offense has to reside with Jaime Garcia, who ensured that the Cardinals would spend at least one tie-ballgame inning in the company of its worst relievers. 

But two additional months have made it no easier to gauge Blake Hawksworth's wor—look, that's an awkward sentence, I'm just going to do the pun—Hawk's worthiness as a Major League bullpen asset. It's not just that the extra velocity he gets as a reliever wasn't available for us to observe in Memphis; it's that on a month to month basis he morphs from the pitcher he needs to be to earn a consistent spot in the bullpen to the pitcher that gets brought in one-for-one in ex-WonderBrad situations. In his first three months as a Cardinal—19 appearances—he walked five batters; that September, he walked 10 in 11. In April, he walked two batters in nine innings; in May, he's walked five, including a pitcher, in eight. 

Hawksworth, in spite of his newly better-than-adequate fastball, isn't going to strike out a batter an inning, even in the bullpen; if he's going to last the season as a reliever it'll have to be with the control-first regimen he found intermittent success with in the minors, post-shoulder surgery.

Hawksworth is out of options, but while we're thinking about it, late-March sure-thing Fernando Salas has recovered from a rough start to post some gaudy K:BB numbers—17:3, at last count—but noted braintrust fascination Adam Ottavino's also off to his best start since the low minors. After his near-miss no-hitter on Tuesday he's struck out 35 batters against seven walks in 36 innings. Mitchell Boggs's solid start is going to make it hard for another right-handed reliever to get a cup of coffee without injury, but if Hawksworth's control continues to waver the Cardinals have proven recently that they're not above, say, trading an interesting fourth outfielder for a mediocre right-handed reliever, allowing him to struggle briefly, and then waiving him after a month. (Not, finally, that we were missing much.)

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fuck that

we don’t need to trade barton for boyer, if that’s what you’re referencing – neither was worth squat. we need to trade something for meek or hanrahan at some opportune time, because i don’t think masset will be available. let’s fill in the top and push the others down, with hawk falling off the board. is dj tools doing anything that would interest the pirates, and if not, then anyone other than craig or descalso from AA on up. a couple guys even, or three. put hamilton in there – really anything but the two. the whole flash card trio is fine by me (though i like one of them, who cares).

this might sound reactionary, but it is not about only tonight, as i’ve said this before.

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on May 20, 2010 6:54 AM EDT reply actions  

also not ottavino

but i’d deal any of the rest, within reason.

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on May 20, 2010 7:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Meek is much the same as Boyer. Hanrahan's not appreciably better than Motte.

relief pitchers with decent stuff and (thus far) crappy results thanks to mental problems and shitty control. In fact I’d say Meek (low-to-mid 90s fastball, curveball, decent stuff but shitty control) is a pretty good comp for Boyer, except Boyer was horrible against left-handed hitters whilst Meek has a reverse platoon split.

I’d deal a bag of baseballs for Meek or Hanrahan but I don’t think either of them improve our pen much. I’m intrigued by Hanrahan more so, but I don’t think he’s the impact solution we need. He won’t add a lot to our current pen IMO.

Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.

by Felonius_Monk on May 20, 2010 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think this is at all a rational response to the situation.

I’m not a big fan of trading for relievers anyway, because I don’t think that they have that much of an effect on a team over the course of a season and they are subject to wild fluctuation in performance. What’s more, most of them are remarkably similar in peripherals if not results. I guess that I don’t understand why we would give up prospects to replace someone who is similar to a pitcher in most bullpens. I think Hawksworth is an acceptable long man. Once his HR rate normalizes, he’ll be a high-3.00s or low-4.00s ERA pitchers.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on May 20, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

well, it certainly sounds irrational to me after what monk just wrote

every time i’ve seen hanrahan or meek pitch they’ve had really good stuff – apparently they only have that when i watch, though. so throw them out if monk is correct, but i still think we need what i thought they were – a lock-down 8th inning guy who could end up closing if need be. my dreams of heath bell have died with the padres success, so i’m setting my sights a little lower, but i still think we need someone who could easily be considered our best right-handed reliever. let k-mac be the long man.

i think if tony trusted the pen more we wouldn’t see carp still in there the other night. this could bite us hard in the long run. especially since our starters are having to throw more pitches to get 3 outs so often, due to shoddy D and lately boog sitting, which limits our MIF range tremendously.

also, i would’ve sworn i typed “f that” in the subject line – apologies.

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on May 20, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

i don't think the 3 outs with boog sitting is legitimate

if anything lately, he’s kept the pitchers out

just lately, but im not sure if boog sitting is why our middle infield is sucking (Schu…)

Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog

by stlcardsfan4 on May 20, 2010 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

well, boog is included in the shoddy D part

but that’s not likely to continue – he’s hurt our pitchers with the errors in a short span, but we know what kind of defender he is. on the range factor, he affects it a lot, i believe. not only will he get to balls lopex can’t at short, but he allows schu to cheat a little to his left, and it’s been noted schu has improved at getting to balls to his left – i don’t think his range has improved, just his positioning has changed a step. i could be wrong on that, but it looks like it to me. of course, lopex at second is a defensive improvement over skip (as well as offensive).

so let’s say lopex is going to play one of the positions on a regular basis. then it really comes down to, is schu enough offensive improvement over boog to make their huge gap in defense worth it, especially taking into account lopex being much better at second than SS, and our pitching philosophy of ground balls? boog at SS and lopex at 2b is not only a much better defensive MIF than lopex at short and schu at second but just a really good defensive MIF when compared to the league. the latter combo is better offensively, but with lopex the constant and the best offensive player of the three, it is only marginally so. and yes, schu is much better offensively than his current numbers show, but so is boog.

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on May 20, 2010 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

my only point

was that you said recently… and boog recently has hurt the pitchers

obviously this won’t continue

Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog

by stlcardsfan4 on May 21, 2010 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hanrhan's got very good stuff

mid-90s fastball and a hard breaking power slider. He’s just struggled to command the ball in the zone (too many HRs) and walks a few too many. I suppose he’s maybe a better comp for someone like Chris Perez (though he’s arguably put it together a bit better than Perez has).

The Nats also handed him the closer job last year and he exploded in fairly monumental circumstances. He has a lot of talent, and, I guess like Perez, even if he doesn’t put things together, he’s still an acceptable guy to have throwing in the last innings, I just think you need a plan B (i.e. he’s not reliable).

My only concern is that he doesn’t appreciably improve our bullpen particularly. He’s better than a couple of our right-handers, and would probably have the best stuff of any of them, but he’s not really THAT different from, say, Mitchell Boggs (who’s striking out a batter an inning this year and has a fairly similar skillset).

If he’d been cut by the Pirates or Nats either last year or this I’d have been keen. The guy I think we really should’ve been in on in the close season was Matt Capps, but that ship seems to have sailed. I guess it’s possible we could land him for a marginal prospect as the year goes on.

I think if we’re in real competition this year, it’s our best chance for the foreseeable future. There are no impact players coming up from the minor leagues next year, everyone will be one year older, and Carp’s health is not a given. I really wouldn’t mind trading for someone like Bell later in the year (if possible). We’d get ripped off, most likely, I guess it costs us Allen Craig and maybe one of our better prospect arms, but he’s a guy we might be able to extend and I’d say he’s genuinely one of the 5 or 6 best relievers in baseball now.

Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.

by Felonius_Monk on May 21, 2010 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

flag'd

Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")

by STLRegalia on May 20, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

uh

stlregalia loves skippy, stlregalia loves skiiiip

RFL

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 20, 2010 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes he does, yes he does

Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")

by STLRegalia on May 20, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

back up off my eddie sanchez

"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."

by prophetjohn on May 20, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

hey, he's the one i like

i’d certainly bring him up and give it a go before making any deals, but what’s his situation?

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on May 20, 2010 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think he picked up a little injury earlier in the year

he’s striking out a lot but was a bit shaky. I’m surprised they didn’t move him up to Memphis.

Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.

by Felonius_Monk on May 21, 2010 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Garcia

Not seeing the game and only looking at the box score, I have a question about Garcia’s outing.
Looking at his line, it didn’t look like he had a bad outing. What happened in the 6th to make LaRussa pull him for Hawksworth? Was it a pitch count move?

by graffin on May 20, 2010 7:27 AM EDT reply actions  

100 pitches after 6

Jaime said he didn’t have much left

"They're so stunned they didn't even boo!"
John Rooney 5/3/10 referring to Philly fans on Cards 5-run 7th inning

by gocards62 on May 20, 2010 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

*after 5

"Franklin has no patience for bloggers who believe because he pitches to contact, his start last season was something of a fluke."

by BVHeck on May 20, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

What happened

Was below avg defensive range up the middle in the first.

by Macarver hater on May 20, 2010 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

totally true,

might’ve bought Jaime another inning if skip makes that play in the first. I think Jaime ended up facing 3 more batters after that play.
Felipe Lopez’s diving stop was another one, would’ve been a great play if he had made it but I have to believe Ryan gets to that cleanly and gets an out.
Overall, the cards didn’t really screw anything up defensively, but there were a number of “tough” plays that could’ve been made to help the pitchers.

by duncans_army on May 20, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

too true

the ball Hanley hit (and Skip didn’t field cleanly) was on Jaime’s 14th pitch of the first inning – Jaime ended up throwing 28 pitches in the first inning, so Skip’s non-play cost 14 pitches, meaning Jaime would have thrown another inning with a cleaner first – and, Floppy’s non-play (which Ryan probably makes easily) was on (I think) the 17th pitch – who dares to say defense is important??

by CRay on May 20, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

what happen was...

He was pinched hit in the bottom of the 5th because his pitch count was really high and our run count was really low.

by Evilfrog on May 20, 2010 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

I believe that he was at 96 pitches,

so, yes, it was a pitch count move. I agree with Dan that it was a demonstration of admirable restraint by TLR to pull Garcia. He did have 6 strikeouts and 4 walks, which will drive up the pitch count. The error by Skip doesn’t help, either.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on May 20, 2010 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

my two cents

watching Jaime throw I was uncomfortable most of the time. Yes, good defense behind him would have masked it. but Garcia was flirting with disaster more than in previous starts Specifically (to my eyes) too much in love with his breaking pitches, which either weren’t strikes or he wasn’t getting the call; too much nibbling; the four walks felt like six to seven, to me. I found myself yelling at the screen, “challenge them, dammit.”
All these things I had NOT felt before in Jaime’s previous outings.

by the Tewk on May 20, 2010 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

His stuff looked pretty sharp, but his control was lacking.

Luckily it was sailing in unhittable territory, but the curve especially looked unpredictable.

I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons

by hazel on May 20, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Brian Barton (enunciate)

Looking around the interwebs, looks like he’s currently unemployed. There was an interesting article about his love for travel. He was part of the goodwill series in Taiwan as a NRI of the Dodgers during spring training, but was cut shortly after they returned.

Barton is almost a modern-day Moe Berg, a fascinating personality for the clubhouse and the media, and a mildly capable player otherwise. He is an interesting argument against the seven/eight-man bullpens of today.

I was reading about how countless species are being pushed toward extinction by man's destruction of forests. Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us. - Calvin, Scientific Progress Goes "Boink", Watterson

by Solanus on May 20, 2010 7:51 AM EDT reply actions  

Brian Barton (rocket scientist)

It would be interesting if Barton decided to go back and finish up the last semester of his aerospace engineering degree.

by redmatter on May 20, 2010 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

It wouldn't be that interesting

because that’s probably what he should do.

Life is tough, but it's tougher if you're stupid.

- John Wayne

by Tackle Box on May 20, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

this would be cool as a fanshot

people miss the cardinaut

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 20, 2010 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

you enjoyed that awkward sentence

come clean, DanUp. you’re among friends. we won’t judge.

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 20, 2010 8:47 AM EDT reply actions  

Don't you mean

Hawksworthless?

Don’t get me wrong, I have enormous respect for a guy who can make it to the majors at all after going through what he did, and I really hope he succeeds. Fact is, though, he isn’t succeeding. Last night the chickens simply came home to roost, while other relievers had driven them off in many previous appearances.

StanTheManFan
Contributes any way he can.
He's normally a nuclear physicist
Except when writing for this list.

by StanTheManFan on May 20, 2010 9:01 AM EDT reply actions  

Last night the chickens simply came home to roost, while other relievers had driven them off in many previous appearances.

WCBW, is that you????

Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.

by Felonius_Monk on May 20, 2010 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

No.

StanTheManFan
Contributes any way he can.
He's normally a nuclear physicist
Except when writing for this list.

by StanTheManFan on May 20, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

From the Twitterz

RT @ryan_jones29: #stlcards now below replacement level offensively as a team -1.3 runs

....my quick smells like french toast...

Twitter: @mstreeter06

by mstreeter06 on May 20, 2010 9:04 AM EDT reply actions  

I can't believe that's possible.

doesn’t he mean -1.3 runs below AVERAGE?

Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.

by Felonius_Monk on May 20, 2010 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure

I just saw it this morning on my #stlcards feed. I don’t know enough about those stats to double check. I figured someone here could verify this.

....my quick smells like french toast...

Twitter: @mstreeter06

by mstreeter06 on May 20, 2010 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

wOBA is relative to average

so yes.

Position players are at 63 runs relative to replacement level (includes replacement modifier, fielding, positional adjustment, batting).

Think; It's not illegal yet.

by azruavatar on May 20, 2010 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gotcha

So the team as a unit is below replacement level?

....my quick smells like french toast...

Twitter: @mstreeter06

by mstreeter06 on May 20, 2010 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

no, the team as a unit is slightly below average (but, essentially, average) so far offensively

which is obviously less than we’d hope for from a team with the talent that we’ve got.

Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.

by Felonius_Monk on May 20, 2010 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Below average, not below replacement, I believe.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on May 20, 2010 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry

I’m working on minimal sleep and my comments are already somewhat incoherent — bad sign. Monk and bgh are right. In terms of hitting only, the Cardinals are 1.3 runs below average. If you look at the contributions they make as a position player (time on field, defense, hitting, positional adjustments), they are well above replacement level.

A replacement level team is insanely bad. Like below 40% winning percentage bad.

Think; It's not illegal yet.

by azruavatar on May 20, 2010 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Understand

This team needs to get out of this stupid hitting funk NOW.

....my quick smells like french toast...

Twitter: @mstreeter06

by mstreeter06 on May 20, 2010 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

any team hitting below replacement level will have a huge losing record

barring the possibility of 5 clones of 1999 Pedro Martinez in the rotation.

Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.

by Felonius_Monk on May 20, 2010 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

I object at using the word hitting

in the context of this statistic.

>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez

by TBender on May 20, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

"not hitting"?

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on May 20, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

that's very reasonable

i was just replying to the OP.

Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.

by Felonius_Monk on May 20, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

OT: Fantasy Advice

I have Reynolds, D Lee, and C Pena for 1B. Should I drop Lee and/or Pena for G Jones, Cuddyer, LaRoche, and/or Glaus or stay put?

....my quick smells like french toast...

Twitter: @mstreeter06

by mstreeter06 on May 20, 2010 9:42 AM EDT reply actions  

Stay put, none of those alternatives are as good as the guys you've got.

why do you need 3 first basemen anyway? Do you carry a corner infield and a DH spot or something?

Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.

by Felonius_Monk on May 20, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Alright

There are 2 1B slots and 3 UTIL. FAs are slim pickings. Just frustrating with lack of production from Lee and also Pena. Right now Lee is on the bench.

And yeah I’m prolly just staying put because Pena did this last year too and then went on fire. Lee will prolly do the same. I do hate having Cubs on my fantasy teams for that reason haha.

....my quick smells like french toast...

Twitter: @mstreeter06

by mstreeter06 on May 20, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

We all go through this.

It gets frustrating and you want to make a change so that you are affirmatively taking steps to correct the situation. I often talk myself out of such moves. Looking at the ZiPS Rest of Season projections for the players is often a good thing to do to get you of the ledge of making a poor long-term move because of a slumping player.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on May 20, 2010 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah agreed

I just need to stop at adding Strasburg to make up for a DL add today. Figured I needed to snatch him up now.

....my quick smells like french toast...

Twitter: @mstreeter06

by mstreeter06 on May 20, 2010 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

I thought this comment was in the

preceding thread, for a moment.

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 20, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Stay put.

Pena is a good better to turn it around, and he ought to have a fair number of runs scored and RBI in that terrific lineup. D-Lee is probably a good bet to bounce back in the Wrigley summer.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on May 20, 2010 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

You sure know how to pick them.

Your guys are all probably top 100 picks and are all getting crushed by BABIP luck. I’d probably stay put with what you’ve got. Reynolds is your best guy- steals and homers and on a decent offense and he’s the youngest. Derek Lee is probably your least talented guy at this point (and he’s the oldest), and the most you can hope for is a bounce back to 2008. If you cut anyone, I think he’s your guy, but I don’t think he’s droppable yet. Pena has had the worst luck of the three, and is putting up the crappiest line, but the thing you need to be very concerned about is the Rays, who are very committed when they decide a guy is done and kick him out of the lineup hard and fast.

As for replacements, Laroche is probably your best bet as he has been decent and not incredibly lucky. Glaus has been playing okay but he projects as a poor man’s D Lee. Jones is intriguing, but do not believe last year’s power- he is probably going to take twice as many at-bats or more to reach the same HR total. Michael Cuddyer probably has the least real power of any of them and just isn’t really a fantasy player this year.

Is Justin Smoak available in your league?

I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons

by hazel on May 20, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Jones is intriguing, but do not believe last year’s power- he is probably going to take twice as many at-bats or more to reach the same HR total.

Also, post-opening day, he has hit a grand total of 3 HR. He’s, y’know, fine, but he’s not going to do 2009 again, probably not in his career.

Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.

by Felonius_Monk on May 20, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

I actually drafted jones with my last pick and needed a towel after opening day.

Then I had to sit through the rest of his Aaron Miles-esque April.

I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons

by hazel on May 20, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah Smoak is available.

I’m going to stay put for now but if I do decide to drop someone it will be Lee. I have Jones in my other league. His recent offensive contributions have been nice.

....my quick smells like french toast...

Twitter: @mstreeter06

by mstreeter06 on May 20, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think a Smoak for Lee switch is the most advisable move.

Even if Lee bounces back, Smoak has him on upside, and Smoak is younger so it eliminates the possibility that you’ll be exposed to the career-ending downward spiral.

I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons

by hazel on May 20, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hmm interesting

So you think my best option would be to drop Lee for Smoak?

....my quick smells like french toast...

Twitter: @mstreeter06

by mstreeter06 on May 20, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think he deserves a bit more patience,

but I think Smoak for Lee is your best move and that Smoak probably isn’t going to be a FA for too much longer.

I'm one of those "I don't care how you killed the cow; just serve me a great steak" guys. If the results are logical and easy to understand, I'm pouring some A1 sauce on that formula and eating it. UZR qualifies. -Bill Simmons

by hazel on May 20, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Stay away rain!

....my quick smells like french toast...

Twitter: @mstreeter06

by mstreeter06 on May 20, 2010 10:10 AM EDT reply actions  

Last night's game showed that Jaime

is going to get even better. In particular, last night he got an 0-2 count on a lot of hitters and then threw a lot of pitches clearly out of the strike zone. Sometimes he ended up getting the out, other times he walked them or gave up a hit, but the point is he needlessly threw too many pitches to each batter. I’ve also noticed this in other starts he has made. He also got 2 outs in an inning a number of times on only a few pitches. In the first, I think he struck out the first two batters on 7 or 8 pitches but then threw 28 total in the inning. It seems to me he needs to improve his concentration a little in both of these situations, something that will probably come with more experience. When it does, Jaime should really be something, health permitting.

by CRay on May 20, 2010 10:29 AM EDT reply actions  

OT Theo loves his Pearl Jam

stache warning

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 20, 2010 10:35 AM EDT reply actions  

Personal theory:

He doesn’t dress like that to avoid being recognized. He’s just into redneck cosplay.

I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
VEB: WWGTD

by The Continental on May 20, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

’cause read up on his previous disguise.

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 20, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure how to square the gorilla suit with all of this, though.

I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
VEB: WWGTD

by The Continental on May 20, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

maybe he thinks the yeti really are out there with beef jerky?

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 20, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

I can't possibly imagine why anyone would complain about this.

What is he, a slave? If my favorite band came to town I’d try to get out of work for one night to go see them. Particularly when that band happens to be Pearl Jam…if they’re in your town, you just can’t miss them.

by mattisnotfrench on May 20, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I liked Ten, but don't care about anything that came after.

I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
VEB: WWGTD

by The Continental on May 20, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like a few pearl jam songs

Evne flow, betterman, but most of thier songs i could care less about

The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore

by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on May 20, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I guess I'm the only fan here?

Big, big fan. They’re kind of an acquired taste and they’re also a “you had to be there” kind of band.

by mattisnotfrench on May 20, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

just keep in mind

their lead singer wrote a song about the cubs…and it wasn’t a joke

Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")

by STLRegalia on May 20, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

and this:

Plus he’s done TMOTTBG once or twice there.

I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
VEB: WWGTD

by The Continental on May 20, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know.

I know, I know. I tune that stuff out.

by mattisnotfrench on May 20, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

in case anyone missed it

d-dee captured the moment of Brendan Ryan and Chris Carpenter toying with a moth.

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 20, 2010 10:49 AM EDT reply actions  

wut

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 20, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure what that has to do with moths....

/confused

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 20, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not a fan of the Hawk

I would rather have Salas than Hawk in a heart beat. I just hope Hawk gets a mysterious injury and goes on the DL

by FlimtotheFlam on May 20, 2010 10:58 AM EDT reply actions  

the thing is, he hasn't been effective all year

since that groin injury in ST, mayhaps.

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 20, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

like kinney?

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on May 20, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

he's a rich man's brad thompson.

That’s about it.

I would hate to trade for any reliever, unless he’s a really an elite pitcher, while we still have otto and salas in the wings.

"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."

by tom s. on May 20, 2010 11:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I agree 100%

it’s basically Heath Bell (or similar high-end arm) or bust IMO

Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.

by Felonius_Monk on May 20, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

In the pitchers meeting today

Dave please reinforce that you have to go after the pitcher. Giving up walks to the opposing pitcher should be cause for a fine.

by OCCardsFan on May 20, 2010 11:11 AM EDT reply actions  

Today's Lineups

Hope the rain stays away

Lopez 2B
Ludwick RF
Holliday LF
Pujols 1B
Freese 3B
Molina C
Mather CF
Ryan SS
Wainwright P

....my quick smells like french toast...

Twitter: @mstreeter06

by mstreeter06 on May 20, 2010 11:45 AM EDT reply actions  

Not a lineup expert, but

why not put Freese 2nd and Ludwick 5th – higher BA/OBP early and better slugging later to drive ’em in?

by Mr. Wilson on May 20, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

it's Joe Mather. calm yourselves.

well, this is an interesting day for the Boog and Bombs Show to come back from hiatus.

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 20, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

i think this would be a stronger lineup

Lopez 2B
Ludwick RF
Holliday LF
Pujols 1B
Freese 3B
Molina C
Wainwright P
Mather CF
Ryan SS

"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."

by prophetjohn on May 20, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd like to see this...

at least for a couple games:
Freese……………start the inning off with some punch, get in scoring position early.
Rasmus…………1st chance to drive in a run or advance the runner.
Holliday………….2nd chance to drive in a run (he’s hitting singles anyway).
Pujols……………..I’ve suggested before that he hit 4th. I like him here. hopes he gets going soon.
Ludwick…………..he hit behind Pujols before with fair success. I have faith in him to do it again.
Schumacher……he’s got to hit somewhere till he can leadoff again. he might start a rally here.
Molina……………..if anybody’s on base at this point, I have confidence in Molina to move him.
Pitcher…………….unless it’s Carp or Adam. any other pitcher hit’s 8th.
Lopez/Ryan…….no knock on Lopez, he could be a little punch at the bottom. If Ryan…we hope.

Baseball first, teams second, players third, agents last.

by Dave Pendleton on May 20, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

10@10 ... picking out the Molina and Ludwick gems
Ryan Ludwick’s home run Tuesday night against Washington traveled an estimated 434 feet. It’s the longest home run hit so far this season at Busch Stadium III.

Ludwick has the overall bomb distance for III: July 22, 2008, 450 feet (hittracker says a little less).

Of the 702 innings that Wainwright has pitched in his career before this afternoon’s start, 576 1/3 of them in the regular season have been caught by Yadier Molina. The Cardinals Gold Glove catcher has been there, behind the plate, for 477 of Wainwright’s career strikeouts in the regular season. He’s caught 18 of the 33 batters who have attempted to steal off Wainwright, and he’s called approximately 4,321 curveballs. OK, that last number I made up.

More of Goold’s 10@10, including Red and his homies takin’ over, and Trever Miller the One-Man Meme Machine.

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 20, 2010 12:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Did you notice who threw the pitch that Ludwick hit 450 feet?

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on May 20, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Call up Sanchez!

He’s not really a long man, I know, but he’s the best reliever in our system and he’s probably bored with dominating AA hitters. Plus, when was the last time we had a call up straight from AA?

babip giveth... and babip taketh away

by purple_haze on May 20, 2010 12:39 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I think maybe Haren came up from AA...

not so sure about that.

If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.

by cardzfanbub on May 20, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

k-mac

"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."

by prophetjohn on May 20, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

it's okay, y'all.

http://stltoday.mycapture.com/mycapture/enlarge.asp?image=29592519&event=1007944&CategoryID=38576&picnum=4&move=F#Image

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 20, 2010 12:39 PM EDT reply actions  

bj rains is all over this aaron miles thing

 BJRains Tony said this morning consideration of Miles would mean two backup outfielders instead of three…..they have about a week to decide. 7 minutes ago via web

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 20, 2010 12:46 PM EDT reply actions  

what is "this aaron miles thing"?

last I heard he was in the minors and trying to work his way back… has there been a change that I missed?

When a reporter asked Gaylord Perry's 5-year-old daughter if her father threw a spitball, she replied, "It's a hard slider."

by FredbirdisaDork on May 20, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah i heard on the broadcast last night that he was tearing up AA

but I didn’t think that was enough to warrant serious consideration for a return just yet.

When a reporter asked Gaylord Perry's 5-year-old daughter if her father threw a spitball, she replied, "It's a hard slider."

by FredbirdisaDork on May 20, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

In 24 ABs

That brings his 2009-2010 professional baseball line up to .223/.263/.282. He’s a career below replacement player, everyone just say no.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on May 20, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

or slightly below

what Lopez was doing with Washington the few years before he came to us.

by Evilfrog on May 20, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Except Lopez had you know, shown that he could be good before

And even in the season he was in, .234 .305 .314 isn’t anywhere NEAR as bad as Miles has been. Miles is a replacement player, he has been his whole career outside of 2008—-which he proceeded to follow up with one of the worst seasons of anyone who saw MLB time last year. The guy is not a MLB player. Descalso and Greene are better than him.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on May 20, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

have you seen the play

by skippy and schumaker this year?

by Evilfrog on May 20, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

You don't understand

Miles hit .185 .224 .242 last year. That’s worse than Brendan Ryan has been this year and Miles is bad at 2B defense let alone a SS-whiz.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on May 20, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I do understand

in his 170 ABs last year he hit .185 .224 .242.

And in the other 2423 AB for his career he is a .285 .356 .466 hitter. Yes his defensive is bad. And we have been treated to some bad middle infield Defense all year. Lopez can’t play SS and Second at the same times.

If Skip and Ryan continue to struggle we are going to have to look as well. Miles came cheap, and if he continue to handle himself at the lower levels then he is going to be considered when Mo looks elsewhere to replace Ryan and Skippy.

To avoid this, Ryan and Skippy needs to start hitting and stop making errors.

by Evilfrog on May 20, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Aaron Miles is a career .282 .322 .356 hitter

He’s a replacement player who then fell off a cliff. He’s terrible at every part of the MLB game.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on May 20, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oops, meant to give the link

Here. Not sure why those numbers are slightly different from joker24’s.

by BTown Birds fan on May 20, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah that is correct

I had my eyes crossed. Point still stands. They tried Greene. They tried letting Ryan and Skip play through it. If they don’t start playing and Miles continues doing what he is doing he’ll be up.

Don’t get mad at Tony and Mo. Get bad and Ryan and Skip.

by Evilfrog on May 20, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Miles is

Mike Gallego the sequel

The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore

by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on May 20, 2010 1:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

If Mile comes up;

Because of his good showing in the minors, and continuous poor play from skip and ryan; and his play at the Majors is worse than what Ryan and Skip have done so far. He wont be here for long. They’ll try something else.

Plan A.) Skip and Ryan play well
Plan B.) Greene comes up and plays well.
Plan C.) Aaron Miles

Do you have a Plan D? How has Descalso been playing? Kazmo?

by Evilfrog on May 20, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

for his career he is a .285 .356 .466 hitter.

really?

"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."

by prophetjohn on May 20, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, i read on

"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."

by prophetjohn on May 20, 2010 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I read that and almost fell out of my chair,

“Grit is not a career .800+ OPSer!”

Then I saw that it was just a type-o.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on May 20, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah it makes no sense...

It also makes no sense that Skip-Ludwick-Pujols-Holliday-Rasmus-Freese-Molina can’t score any runs.

Maybe a little irrational grit is what we need…

Tis better to lose bunting than win with dingers alone...

by guayzimi on May 20, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

maybe grit is the missing ingredient

kinda like the gravitational constant is necessary for any fluid dynamics equations… the whole thing doesn’t make sense or work without the requisite amount of grit.

When a reporter asked Gaylord Perry's 5-year-old daughter if her father threw a spitball, she replied, "It's a hard slider."

by FredbirdisaDork on May 20, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

We're talking about replacing...

Jay with Miles. It doesn’t matter. Bat Little Grit first, Big Grit seventh, then put Lopez, Rasmus, Holliday, Pujols, and Freese in between… How could the GOBs deny us?

Tis better to lose bunting than win with dingers alone...

by guayzimi on May 20, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

well they are bastards those GOBs

When a reporter asked Gaylord Perry's 5-year-old daughter if her father threw a spitball, she replied, "It's a hard slider."

by FredbirdisaDork on May 20, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

why the timetable of a week to decide?

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on May 20, 2010 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

So I was wondering...

If I have learned anything from reading VEB, it is that the numbers tell us that the ship will right itself eventually. If we trust the numbers, does that mean that the regression to the mean will translate into a massive winning streak? Kinda similar to what I hope Carlos Silva’s regression to mean will be like?

When a reporter asked Gaylord Perry's 5-year-old daughter if her father threw a spitball, she replied, "It's a hard slider."

by FredbirdisaDork on May 20, 2010 12:50 PM EDT reply actions  

I like Groundskeeper Bill's hat.

I wonder if he can supply some grit to the team.

I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
VEB: WWGTD

by The Continental on May 20, 2010 1:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Cat looks like he's ready to cover a baseball game in London.

I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
VEB: WWGTD

by The Continental on May 20, 2010 1:03 PM EDT reply actions  

after seeing the pics you posted of Carpenter channeling renfield and eating a moth...

I was trying to remember the situation earlier in the year when people said that Colby was watching a fly in the outfield. You didn’t capture any of that did you?

When a reporter asked Gaylord Perry's 5-year-old daughter if her father threw a spitball, she replied, "It's a hard slider."

by FredbirdisaDork on May 20, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

sweet... too bad i don't know myself

I’ll google it and see if i can’t figure it out.

When a reporter asked Gaylord Perry's 5-year-old daughter if her father threw a spitball, she replied, "It's a hard slider."

by FredbirdisaDork on May 20, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

happy waino day, btw

"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."

by prophetjohn on May 20, 2010 1:35 PM EDT reply actions  

my thoughts are

that Lopez should be starting over Skip at second base, and giving Freese the occasional day off. he should not play at short, since he is best at 3rd or 2nd base.

SS should be split between Boog and T. Greene, until one of them emerges as the starter.

RFL

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 20, 2010 1:36 PM EDT reply actions  

It'll be easier to do that if / when the rest of the team starts hitting.

I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
VEB: WWGTD

by The Continental on May 20, 2010 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

wat

since when.

"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."

by prophetjohn on May 20, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh yeah,

floppy. my bad

"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."

by prophetjohn on May 20, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

lopez off DL...I think...

Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")

by STLRegalia on May 20, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

um,

no

"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."

by prophetjohn on May 20, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

you just always have to disagree

Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")

by STLRegalia on May 20, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

no i don't!

"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."

by prophetjohn on May 20, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Geez how was that not gone?

Holy cats.

I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
VEB: WWGTD

by The Continental on May 20, 2010 1:42 PM EDT reply actions  

gah

this game sucks so far

by chalk on May 20, 2010 1:45 PM EDT reply actions  

great start

Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")

by STLRegalia on May 20, 2010 1:45 PM EDT reply actions  

i'll work on a game thread

i think that is what waino needs

"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."

by prophetjohn on May 20, 2010 1:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Got it (I think)

I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
VEB: WWGTD

by The Continental on May 20, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

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