Seeing Red, not Enjoying It
by DanUpBaby on May 17, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
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PrintOne of the most difficult things to do when becoming your peer group's Sabermetric Type is giving over what you know to be too many things to luck and unknowable reasons. The Cardinals are not playing very well, and they look even worse than they're playing, because of the specific ways in which they're flailing.
But the longer it's been since my first Baseball Prospectus purchase, the calmer (or more fatalistic) I've gotten about the whole thing. Penny's 13 hits against just eight outs on balls in play? There's not much to be done about that; he threw a lot of strikes, he got a lot of strikeouts, and while he's seemed a little too eager to pitch up in the zone of late the crushing blow was delivered on a low, mid-nineties sinker to a pitcher. If that's how it's going to be—well, then baseball's going to be really frustrating to watch for a while.
This series wasn't a total loss, though. Losing first place in May probably means less to the Cardinals than gaining it does to the Reds; it was probably a pleasant night at the Jocketty household. And if you are not convinced that the Cardinals' failure to go wire-to-wire does not mean the NL Central will be a Bronson Arroyan nightmare for the rest of the season, there was some good stuff to watch. Enough for bullet points!
- Three of the four offensive stalwarts in that clockwork April offense finally hit some home runs. (And Jason LaRue, for what that's worth.) The Cardinals slugged .429 in the series; that's enough to push them toward the NL's depressed league average of .405, after a May slide that had sent them within one point of the Eckstein line. Unfortunately, the power arrived just in time for the surprisingly high on-base percentage to eat and run—the Cardinals' nine walks in the series were passable, but combined, here, with the same low batting average that plagued the relatively effective Three True Outcomes version of the lineup from mid-April.
- One of the middle infielders had a good series! This is up from zero. Skip Schumaker's .232 batting average is the highest it's been since since immediately following his 2-8 performance in the 20 inning game. May has been a truly ugly month for him; he's hitting .260 in it, but with just one double and four walks he's pruned every last sign of secondary skills from his set of tools. With that in mind, four hits with a double and a walk is good news; his OBP is finally over .300, and his slugging percentage is up to—up to—.290. With Felipe Lopez's imminent return seemingly already devoted, in part, to filling the shortstop part of the lineup card while Brendan Ryan's head is straightened, it's important that one middle infielder pulls out of his tailspin now.
- More Jaime Garcia. Garcia's now pitching well enough that even after xFIP normalizes his incredibly low home run rate it sits at 3.58. He looks great; the results are great; he allowed a home run and the world did not collapse around us. Pitchers have gotten off to excellent starts before and then struggled, and he's young enough that injuries and overuse are a major concern, but his performance in May, as his BABIP climbs toward normal levels, has been extremely impressive. The most pressing Garcia-related problem is good news—if Kyle Lohse fails to soak up fourth starter innings, the Cardinals will have a difficult time keeping Garcia on a rookie-coming-off-elbow-surgery's workload. So long as the words "Jaime Rules" are not used outside of this blog, I think they can figure it out.
- I'm not going to suggest that Brad Penny's strikeout to walk ratio means he had to have pitched well yesterday, but I will say that his strikeout to walk ratio for the season is now 3.7, 1.5 higher than his career average, and that a pitcher with said strikeout to walk ratio is not going to pitch badly over the course of an entire season. As sour as some of his recent performances have turned out, his pitching in the first two months of 2010 has to be considered a major Dave Duncan success.
Good news for this week's brief stint against Washington: player salary rules have prevented the Nationals from starting their best pitcher until June. (Dear Major League Baseball: please consider changing the rules in such a way that gaming a rookie's salary is not such a mid-market imperative.) Bad news(?): Craig Stammen, who they'll be starting instead, is a soft-tossing control-oriented right-hander who's been hammered by the rest of the National League.
The Nationals aren't as good as their early run has made them out to be—the pitching is not as good as it looks, which isn't very good anyway, and Ivan Rodriguez is hitting .350, which probably isn't permanent. But they've got some real hitters, and Adam Dunn is finally at a position where he does not appear to be soaking up most of his offensive value on defense. And eventually they'll be able to pretend Stephen Strasburg is finally ready for the Major Leagues!
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Like the writing as always, and I love the positive thinking Dan.
The McGwire Experiment Question: Who on this team is hitting better than last year?
Also interesting to note
that the players who have worked with Mac the most (Ryan, Schu) are the ones who are struggling the most. We’ll see what it looks like by the AS break….
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
That's what I find odd
I’d be very curious as to why. Things that McGwire didn’t have time to stress before are now driving them nuts? Having the teacher around makes them nervous? All the pushups he makes them do for screwing up leave them exhausted?
don't forget
that at least Schu, not to mention Holliday, were working with Mac long before this season, so we can just as easily attribute past good performances to “coach Mac”.
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on May 17, 2010 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
see my theory on Mac's over-availability
Mac was never available to him in the dugout after every single at-bat. Or at all hours.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
at the same time, I should stress that this is a theory
I’m more concerned with the perception of culpability rather than Mac’s disgustingly tiny sample … size as a pro coach. He’s been telling the press he’s concerned about exactly the things we’re howling over — expanding the zone, for one.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
His interview
the other day in SLPD made a lot of sense to me, but the people that populate that site wanted Mac’s head at this early juncture.
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on May 17, 2010 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
the P-D forums?
they want all kinds of heads. one hopes the org.’s not reading that.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Skip isn't struggling, IMO.
It’s just been bad luck. He has consistently had a LD% near 30%, which is about 8 points higher than his career average, and is very good. Yet, his BABIP had consistently been very low. Over the last week it climbed to .263, which is still about 60 points below his career average. His walk rate is up a bit, as is his strikeout rate, but I don’t see any reason to hang Skip’s .232 BA and .305 OBP on Big Mac. My guess is we’ve seen his luck change and he’ll be hitting over .275 within a month.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
will have you know that Jason LaRue is worth quite a bit.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
His VORM is off the charts.
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
VEB: WWGTD
by The Continental on May 17, 2010 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
it's surprising that Holliday is trying to pursue him in that stat
but by definition he can only have a snowcone with his glove, not his bat.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Are you using a Gary Bennett nickname in discussing Jason LaRue?
Let’s not mix the memes.
You can read it in any tone you like.
the verb isn't Gary Bennett
LaRue’s home run in Colorado last year resulted in spontaneous snowcones. And a few after that. It’s a Cardinals thing now.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
VEB: We'll steal your meme.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
blame the clutch backup catchers
memes change and grow.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
hey, I just work here.
that’s what happened, and that’s how it shook out. been in rotation since then. besides, it’s the verb, not the noun.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
oh good
we were wondering if other things had gotten to you
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I just recieved a letter from the IRS.
I present it here in its entirety
Dear Mr. Frog,
About you inquiry for tax documents for McClellan, Kyle and Franklin, Ryan, and I must tell you that here and the Internal Revenue Services we do not make it a habit of discussing on going investigates with the public, but in your case we are willing to make an excepting believing that you may be of service to us in reaching a resolution to said investigation, we do share in your suspicion that Mr. Franklin and Mr. McClellan may in fact be the same person.
We believe that this ruse is a must sinister of crimes. One that ranks above murder most foul. The genocide in Dufar pales in comparison to the evil doings of this McFranklin, dub so by or Tennessee area Agent. I am referring too, of course, Tax Evasion! A crime of greed that affects all of us and undermines National Security for both rich and poor.
Now our documents show that Mr. McClellan made slightly over min. wage last year. Yet he lives in large house in an upscale neighborhood in the greater St. Louis area. When question about his Residents he responded, and excuse me if I Paraphrase here, for the young lad questioning Mr. McClellan was one of our greenest members and was a little intimidated by the angry McClellan, “Are you kidding me? I’m a freakin Cardinal pitcher! Living in the St. Louis area! Mr. DeWitt takes care of us! You know how cheap housing is here? Have you seen the amount of foreclosures in the area? Get lost leech!” And with that he slammed the door. We haven’t had much contact with McClellan since. We are trying to secure local PD help to insure our agent’s safety.
Were it gets interesting is Franklin’s contract. Franklin makes several million dollars. We have seen him pitch. And as far as we can tell only an idiot would pay Franklin this amount of Money for the work that he does. We’ve meet “Mo”, and he doesn’t come off as an idiot. However, if you take in account the amount of work McClellan does, on top of what Franklin does, the contract makes a lot more sense.
Our agent’s located Franklin’s property in Tennessee. It is acres of lush hunting grounds but with no apparent house. Instead it just had a rather large tent. Franklin claimed the house was damaged in recent storms so they are camping out on the ground until repairs can be complete. We were unable to spot this “house”. Later our agents came back during the night to try and search while Mr. Franklin was away. They were meet with gun fire, called Federal Pigs, and heard shouts of “NRA FOREVER” before retreating to the safety of their State provided 94 Ford Taurus.
We will need father proof before we can bring this issue up to a court. So with wait with high hopes that you will be able to forward to us any notes you may acquire in this regard.
Sincerely,
Taxy McTaxerson.
On a related note. I now have access to the Cardinal’s Bullpen but must wait until the team leads for their next road trip. I cannot divulge my agent, but I will say the price was just buying several pallets worth “Busch Stadium™ Grass Seed Mix by Scotts®.” My lawn will now have the same deep emerald green color of our new Stadium.
I regret to inform you that poor Lucy has passed. Even more dreadful is now Mina’s health is also fading.
by Evilfrog on May 17, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 13 recs
Rec'd for the Stoker finish.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Taxy McTaxerson
/mangiggle
The bible declares an eye for an eye, so, let us now take our vengeance on this murderous ocean. . . You won't be hurting anyone anymore
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on May 17, 2010 3:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Funny junk...
…worthy of applause from the opposition.
+1
Uh...yeah...Let's gets that Calder Cup!!!!
Also concerned
Thanks for your insightful and honest analysis. At this stage, the team has had nearly 1500 plate appearances. At some point, that is a sufficient sample to conclude that the disappointing offense is more than just a result of the vicissitudes of BABIP. I hope it is but I am still concerned. Mid-season pickups have invigorated the Cardinals offense in the past and perhaps Felipe Lopez’s return will do the same. It seems to me that the next two weeks are critical to determining whether this can be an above average offense. Our pitching can keep us at the top of the division as long as the offense regressses to just average.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down and that foot is me
The problem is that we are now seeing the pitching begin to regress.
We can’t expect Carp, Waino, Garcia, and Penny to all have a season like Carp and Waino did last year, and carry the team. They are going to have to hit, and probably hit above average, once the pitching fully regresses. The offense will come around eventually.
holliday's numbers
I think the point someone illustrated is yesterdays posts about Holliday’s numbers kind of shows you where some of the regression (or in this case progression) will come from. His RISP OPS is like 400 points below his non-RISP OPS. I have to believe that numbers like that will change as the number of AB’s increases (he only has like 40 risp ab’s).
you may be correct in saying that the BABIP won’t change a ton over the rest of the year (it sits right now as a team at like .300, so why would it), but more timely hitting so far would’ve probably netted us some extra runs…
by duncans_army on May 17, 2010 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions
So let me get this straight
Getting Felipe Lopez back from the DL will be like making a trade for a great player without giving anything up????
by jd is legend on May 17, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
You know, Dan, it really is
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
The Washington Post quoted someone from the Nats
saying basically the same thing about getting Jason Marquis back after his surgery in about 8 weeks. I had to laugh (both for the memory of the Cards situation and the fact that it is about Bipolar Betty).
youneverknow
by floodOfLove on May 17, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I HATE JASON MARQUIS!!!!
:=8O
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
by The MooCow on May 17, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Some things never truly die.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on May 17, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Jaime Rules"
That is all.
The player I would like least at #9 would be my sister’s cat, Captain Creamsicle. She does have a great work ethic and agility, but I’m really concerned that at 9 lbs., she’s too small to play safety in the NFL. She also bites way too often on play action and is easily distracted by someone waving string in the crowd. Lastly, her wonderlic score was pretty awful, answering "meow meow meow" for most of the questions- Dr. Brackish Okun
Unless Holliday & Pujols are running strong
This team will have a difficult time sustaining any level of success. They are getting paid big bucks to produce and while neither are having horrible years, neither are producing at the levels we expected
they're the stabilizers
some guys like Ludwick* can step into the void, but the rest of ‘em are panicking because they can’t get their “jobs” done. The critical time to gel up was Spring Training… and we almost never saw the regular lineup all together because of injuries to, oh, everyone. ST is still biting us in the butt.
*probably because he has to ride his streak instead of focusing on his role
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Holliday and Pujols are indeed the keys
but to view the glass as half empty – Pujols continues to swing at many pitches outside the strike zone (and shows little sign of coming out of it, though one must eventually expect him to), and Holliday isn’t hitting with men on base (as has been said above). Until these things change, the Cards will continue to scuffle, and I will not enjoy watching this team.
Buster Olney just on Mike and Mike
Paraphasing: Says the Cards are still a great team. They are just a mess right now. Talked to McGwire and he says analysis paralysis.
oooh. thanks.
any more details?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Analysis paralysis sounds right
Sounds doubly right for Brendan Ryan. I’ve never seen a baseball player so visibly beat himself up for mistakes.
I am more
sanguine about all of this. Out of first place for the first time since July last year? I am a happy Cards camper, but maybe I am on the optimistic side. I remember last year May was not such a great month either. I just have to believe that the poor hitters will come around, and the middle of the lineup will exert itself more forcefully as we move ahead. If the starting pitching holds…. I think there is still a lot of ball to play until the all-star break, and I personally don’t get too excited until deep into June. Last year Mo made some deals when things didn’t look so good. Let the current roster play on, and if a month from now things are not looking good, then it may be time to start thinking about some changes. Mo as much as said that the other day, although I think that his time frame was much more truncated, like two weeks or so.
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on May 17, 2010 9:40 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Perspective.
This is far to reasonable of an approach. I bought us all pitchforks and torches. Clearly, you do not want either.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Send them to Bristol
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
I agree with most of this, and I'm not worried about anything yet, since we aren't even through May.
However, at the beginning of the season if you had to list the 5 questions a VEB Cardinal fan would be asking if the team fell out of first place in the middle of May, they’d look like this:
- How many starts have Carpenter, Penny, and Garcia missed?
- How many blown saves does Ryan Franklin have and what is the bullpen’s FIP?
- Is Colby Rasmus struggling offensively?
- Are any of our infielders, outside of Pujols, hitting better than .250?
- How bad has Kyle Lohse been so far?
If you think about it, only 4 and 5 really apply, and nobody was too worried about Skip, but everyone was worried about Freese, including myself less than a week into the season. I would venture a guess that nobody here would have predicted the Reds to be in first place either — my guess is that they’d have been the third guess behind the Cubs and the Untuckers.
That’s what’s worrisome — that this team seems to invent issues to struggle when the high probability problems don’t appear. Offensively, we’re playing like last year’s Giants team, which had fantastic pitching and missed the playoffs because they couldn’t make either Cain or Lincecum a 20 game winner. This even happened, to a certain extent, in September of last year — Pujols really struggled for a month heading into the playoffs, and nobody on the team was really playing or pitching well the last two weeks of the season unless they were named Holliday.
My other big concern is how this team’s offensive function seems to be based solely on how the big bats hit. If Pujols is struggling, EVERYONE is struggling. That’s a problem, imo, because even great hitters are going to have stretches where they perform poorly, but if the rest of the team stinks on ice during that time, their slumps will probably last longer as they start to press when nobody is picking them up. The Holliday signing was supposed to prevent our club from having extended stretches like this that plagued the club in 2008 and 2009.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on May 17, 2010 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's what's so GD confounding to me
how does a team, whose offensive ineptitude reached historic proportions last May (seriously, by the numbers it was one of the worst offensive stretches in Cardinals history), do almost the exact same thing this May, despite taking significant affirmative action to avoid such a repetition? It’s almost too freaking parallel to be completely random, but I know that it must be. It’s just too damn confounding and depressing to think about, so I try not to. But I can’t shake the lingering notion that maybe, in some way, the make-up of this team is just somehow more susceptible to these kinds of things, but I don’t know why that should be so except what you’ve said: When Pujols is hu-mang and not the mang, the team’s momentum just stops and it takes a hell of a lot to overcome the inertia and get the team going again. Now I’m just rambling, but it all boils down to: Is this really just pure randomness, or is there something about the make-up of this team that makes it more vulnerable to this?
not enough facial hair
perhaps they need something similar to last year’s ’staches to bring the team together?
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Muttonchops!
Cardinals Baseball 2010...Catch the Infection!
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on May 17, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you're reaching for patterns.
This team did not leave Spring Training having played their entire lineup more than a few times. La Russa rested them. Pujols’ mini-slump is not without precedent (though the reasons for it are freakish), Holliday is a slow starter, Ludwick is streaky, Brendan Ryan came off surgery AND changed his swing — both of which shifted conditions he’s accustomed to all his adult life, Skip also vowed to adjust his approach, Colby has just been dumped in the one spot he dislikes, and Yadier Molina can’t always fail to strike out.
Adjusting for one thing forces Tony to create a hole elsewhere. On top of it, he’s given away 3-4 pivotal games with his Tony-managing, which is kind of the price of admission, but does not help the human psyche looking for streaks.
The worst thing this team can do is panic.
The most annoying thing this fanbase can do is panic.
When they say they haven’t all been firing at the same time, they mean it. Random cat is random. Stupid umps are stupid. We remember what a bad team was, right? Panicking like it’s 2007 does not apply to 2010. Nor does taking the inexplicable events of 2009 and trying to hang an explanation on them. I was firmly against panicking too early, before, and I’m still against it.
There are issues here that can be addressed and fixed. The baserunning. The defense on the corners could use tweaking, and Colby has to pick up throwing to the infield. The expansion of zones which comes from panicking. It’s entirely too early to pick at this system and say these guys just don’t have the stuff to get through it. We’ll talk in September, when the baseball season is really hard.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
and don't forget the schedule
don’t underestimate lack of off-days.
or the propensity for certain persons to hold charity events during those off-days.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Ditto
The team’s baserunning and defensive shortcomings are troubling. Schu and Ludwick seem to have had particularly bad stretches as baserunners but they are not alone. I wish there was a reliable metric to look at – maybe one of you SABR-brainiacs has one. I am especially concerned about defense. With the exception of Molina and a surprisingly good year in the field for Ludwick, it seems to me we are underperformed. Rasmus seems to be a lesser defender this year – while that elegant gliding style is comforting, he is not making the “out of zone” plays that we came to expect last year and his arm has apparently been amputated.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down and that foot is me
besides the getting thrown out at home to end the game
Which wasn’t skips fault as he was sent. What else has skip done?
Long before
Skip’s ill-fated turn in Game 2 of Cincy – which wasn’t his fault – I commented on Schu’s baserunning. Maybe I do expect a (former) leadoff man to run the bases better. He seems not to advance as we would hope. He may just be slow.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down and that foot is me
He is slow.
He may even be slower than Ludwick.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Skip and Ludwick just aren't fast.
It’s not bad, it’s slow.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
and yet who's got the base-stealing lead, hmm?
they just need to up their sneakiness stat, is all.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Nobody expects the Molina Inquisition?
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
all Yadi does is time the pitcher and force the defense to make a play
it’s not rocket science. at least, not to a Molina.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Molinas go thru life in Matrix vision.
Everything slows way down for them.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on May 17, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Defense and Baserunning.
By UZR, our defense is the fifth best in MLB.
I also seem to remember us ranking highly in Dewan’s +/- and Bill James Online’s baserunning stat. But, that was a couple of weeks ago, so those stats could have fluctuated.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
so what's Bernie looking at?
http://twitter.com/miklasz/status/14073226310
http://twitter.com/miklasz/status/14073282119
Their percentage of runners advancing extra base on hits is well in the minus category. Minus-16 going into tonite. 7:52 PM May 15th via web
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
He has the subscription. I don't.
That’s as up-to-date as you’re going to find, so I defer to his tweets.
I can’t find where I read that about the Cardinals and baserunning, but it was older. Heck, it may have even been Bernie from last month.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
per billjamesonline, we're -24 total going into tonight
not sure if that is bases, runs, or baserunners (I think it’s “baseruns”).
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
one of the spectacular failure modes the Cards have had so far this year
is losing runners on the basepaths, and getting thrown out at home in particular.
I have no idea how to look such stats up, but anecdotally it seems like we’ve lost runners at the plate in bunches this year. Gotta be at least half a dozen, maybe more than that.
I’m not saying the team is full of Thurston-level baserunners, I think it’s just random.
(forgot to add)
those are the kind of plays that (rightfully or not) certainly aggravate the hell out of the fan base, and can’t be good for the mindset of the players either…..
this could potentially be a couple epic games on the basepaths
according to this we are 29th and the nats are 30th:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=69262
yesterday larue got caught off third – i believe ty greene went 1st to 3rd on colby’s grounder, so in that situation it didn’t look so bad, as we replaced the runner at third, but what if no one had been on first?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I would like to see individual breakdowns.
Colby usually does a good job of advancing. I wonder who the weak links are.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
according to the bill james online baserunning stats
Colby was worth 26! extra bases last year, and 6 so far this year. Yadier Molina was worth -29! and -4 this year. Now we’re back to square one.
I bet they set the ends of the spectrum
for the club and the league…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
rest of the lineup
2009 / 2010
ludwick: 17 -11
holliday: -2 -1 (28 in 2008)
ryan: +11 -2
freese: -1 +2 (thurston: -9)
schumaker: +9 -9
pujols: -15 +2 (pujols has some wide variance year to year, as you’d expect from someone with no stop sign)
This doesn’t take stolen bases into account—Pujols made up for some of his baserunning value last year by being +8 on stolen bases.
Additional Fun fact: Bengie Molina is -151 since 2002.
So, Ludwick was worth 17 extra bases in 2009,
but has already been worth -11 this season? This must be subject to a very wide variance.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
it is
it’s a lot of fun, and generally the players you think would be good and bad are good and bad, but I’m not sure how much stock I put in the actual numbers. It’s broken down further, too—they have how many times a player had the chance to go first to third and how often he did, etc.
I've given serious thought to subscribing to Bill James Online,
but someone here said the price went up and it sounded too expensive to get just for baserunning and Dewan’s +/-.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
to be clear
Though I probably wouldn’t pay much more than that, there are some fascinating Bill James articles on there; generally the less they are about baseball as we know it, the more enjoyable they are. Once he spent several thousand words attempting to invent a sport that would make women’s gymnastics more popular; another time there was an alternate-universe story about a baseball league with a drastically different structure.
It's probably in his contract with the Red Sox.
A clause to the effect of: “No writing about baseball in this universe for your blog.”
I saw the $3/month price tage, but folks here said it went up. $3/month struck me as about right.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
yeah, I'm paying $9. Not sure why.
Started out at 3, which was “in the noise”.
I use it about once a month, which is about as often as I get coffee at starbucks, so I’m OK with $3 but $9 is a bit much.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
also, the credit card statement says "be jolly, inc"
First time the SO saw that, it was like the scene in “40yo virgin” where the wife caught the guy playing fantasy baseball- no, really, it’s an online baseball stat web page, and I’m paying for it with my credit card. Really.
uh huh.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
HIT MOAR DINGERS!!!
Then we don’t have to worry about base-running gaffs.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on May 17, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd for truth.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
Rasmus has always had a bad arm from what I've seen.
Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.
by Felonius_Monk on May 18, 2010 5:39 AM EDT up reply actions
bad arm is misleading
i believe he has a strong arm derailed by footwork and focus, which makes it seem both weak and inaccurate.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
It was just mentioned recently in the Post-Dispatch (I believe)
that the Cardinals wanted Colby to one-hop throws to second base, only practice throwing to second, and don’t ever practice throwing home. Colby requested that they begin throwing to home after hearing that Francouer does it to keep his arm strong. The Cardinals also told him he didn’t have to one-hop it to second anymore. I couldn’t believe it when I read all of that.
First base and outfield coach Dave McKay says Colby Rasmus’ erratic throws to bases are a product of organizational teaching that will be modified in the center fielder’s case.
McKay says the club preaches throwing on one hop to second base on base hits. Rasmus, however, has taken the practice to an extreme when throwing to the plate. Most recently, he spiked a throw Thursday, giving himself no chance on a play at home.
McKay insists Rasmus’ issue is physical, not mental, and is easily correctable.
You can read it in any tone you like.
yeah, what he said ^
"There's only one way to play baseball, "the Cardinals' way." - George Kissell 1920-2008
if I was a beat writer
I’d ask TLR about your S/T hypothesis. I wonder if there’s something to that.
This entire thread is terrific, btw. We should remember this one a month or two from now when we’ll have some perspective on the recent slump.
and the reds?
i mean, kudos to them for being in first place, but they’ve still given up more runs than they’ve scored on the season… (not to mention, they are 9-5 in one-run games, and 4-0 in extra inning games…)
by pythagorean we’d be up 3.5 games right now… it’s just early in the season and they’ve gotten some lucky bounces to go their way…
by duncans_army on May 17, 2010 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
They're also a better bet to improve than the Cardinals are over the course of the rest of the season.
Outside of Rolen and Votto, their offense hasn’t played well yet, and Phillips/Bruce/Dickerson should get going at some point. Their pitching has been this side of awful outside of Leake, who’s been great, and have the potential to be much better — if they aren’t, they have Chapman in the minors waiting to take a spot and Volquez might be back for the stretch run.
To say that we shouldn’t be worried about the Reds when we’ve lost 5 of our last 6 against them and one of the worst teams in the NL is foolish. Our Pythag is better because our pitching has been so good, but we can’t continue to have series in which our offense scores 5 runs in the whole series.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
not a serious comment,
but I think that when Bernie wrote the article a few weeks ago in the PD saying who in the central could challenge the Cards (answer no one), that was the start of the slide. Maybe I am too jinx conscious.
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on May 17, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Last 6 vs. Cincy
We are 3-3. We won the series against them in St. Louis and the lone loss in that series was assisted by the umpires inexplicably keeping the game going through a downpour with lightning and tornadoes.
I don’t know that we will see Chapman unless the Reds fall out of contention. His control has not been good (nearly 5 BB/9) and, if they are in contention, I don’t know why they would bring him up if he isn’t ready to help them win.
I don’t know that we will “improve,” but I believe that our run output will increase. Our hitting has not been timely. I think it will eventually become more timely and that this will cause to score more runs. The NL is hitting .264 with RISP and we are hitting .245. The NL is hitting .257 overall and so are we. I think if we get a few timely hits, it will make watching this club a lot less frustrating.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Good thing
when I get up (at least for the weekend games), they are already over, so I don’t have to suffer the pitch by pitch angst, just suffer the result.
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on May 17, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't disagree
But I think people are just writing off the Reds because they “haven’t been there”, and I think that’s a mistake. They have players who’ve been on successful teams (Rolen, Arroyo), good young talent, and the chips in the minor leagues to be able to swing a deadline trade to bring in a LF bat or a top of the rotation starter. They are a team on the rise, and it’s best not to ignore that.
Chapman has struggled with walks, but he’s also striking out 10.5 per 9 innings and just blowing away AAA hitters. He could probably be somewhat successful with a 1.95 K/BB in the big leagues — Ubaldo Jimenez sure has been. Not that they’re the same pitcher, but I think that’s a good comp for Chapman since he clearly has incredible stuff.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
i think the reds are legit...
and I agree with your sentiment that they can/will improve… but that improvement will get them maybe over the break-even point of runs-scored/runs-against.
The way I see it, they are a decent team that has fallen into first-place early in the season because of some lucky bounces (seriously 4-0 in extra innning games… we are 3 games back of them in extra inning games alone!!)
and yeah, they probably will finish above 500, but their players certainly aren’t under-performing that much (heck leake is over-performing).
Currently they are on pace to win 92 games… i just don’t see it happening
by duncans_army on May 17, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
The Reds are performing as you might expect...
average to slightly below average offense, average to slightly below average pitching. Looking at their numbers, nobody is really a long way from their projection, except maybe Hernandez, who is over-performing.
They’ve been lucky. 4-0 in extras. Three games beyond their pythag. They’re an 80-win team. They could get lucky and over-perform by 10 games and sneak past us if we suck a lot more than we thought we would.
As for the minors, Alonso and Chapman: they can’t play Votto and Alonso at the same time (I don’t think) and Chapman is struggling or at least seems like he could use more time. 5 walks/9 and more than a hit per inning doesn’t really indicate that he’s ready to help this year.
Franklin !#@$!&*%#
Alonso has been playing LF in the minors.
I don’t know if this is akin to Brett Wallace playing third base in the minors for St. Louis, but it is happening.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I never said anything about them playing Alonso and Votto at the same time
I actually think they’re going to end up dealing Alonso if they’re in it this year and trying to get an outfield bat or a starter back in return.
Potential players on the block:
Josh Willingham
J.D. Drew (I think this is the best target, actually)
Carlos Beltran
Bobby Abreu
Adam Dunn (not likely)
Lance Berkman (if he can still play OF, not sure if he can or not)
All of those teams have a potential place for Alonso on their roster, and all those bats would make the Reds better offensively.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Will Adam Dunn ever play for an AL team? Ever?
It’s astounding to me anyway.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
AL stands for American League
and everybody knows Adam Dunn hates America
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
by STLRegalia on May 17, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 8 recs
I think I go over this every series because it is unbelievable to me too
Dunn likes playing the field and enjoys running his mouth at 1B even more than he enjoyed the adventures of the OF. We might trade him to an AL team if we fall out of contention, but I would be shocked if he resigns for an AL contract when he hits the free agent market.
Uh...yeah...Let's gets that Calder Cup!!!!
Potential players on the block:
I could see the Rays moving Upton or Crawford, but more likely Crawford, to get jennings up.
The player I would like least at #9 would be my sister’s cat, Captain Creamsicle. She does have a great work ethic and agility, but I’m really concerned that at 9 lbs., she’s too small to play safety in the NFL. She also bites way too often on play action and is easily distracted by someone waving string in the crowd. Lastly, her wonderlic score was pretty awful, answering "meow meow meow" for most of the questions- Dr. Brackish Okun
Not when they are in first place,
battling for a playoff berth.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I still think
They’d prefer to get something for Crawford, rasther thanb let him walk for nothing. But I concedyour point on Upton.
The player I would like least at #9 would be my sister’s cat, Captain Creamsicle. She does have a great work ethic and agility, but I’m really concerned that at 9 lbs., she’s too small to play safety in the NFL. She also bites way too often on play action and is easily distracted by someone waving string in the crowd. Lastly, her wonderlic score was pretty awful, answering "meow meow meow" for most of the questions- Dr. Brackish Okun
The way they've drafted
the draft picks might actually be worth having him for a full season.
They do have Desmond Jennings at AAA, and he’s supposed to be Carl Crawford 2.0, but I think they’d rather just bring him up and let him play RF for them (and have the best defensive outfield in baseball — all those guys would be 1-2 win players with the glove) rather than trading Crawford in the middle of a pennant race.
If they’re in the playoff hunt, and there’s no reason they shouldn’t be, they aren’t dealing Carl Crawford.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
We aren't going to trade Willingham
He’s been great for us so far and even been passable in the field. We’ve got him under control for next year and have next to nothing in our system if he leaves. They are more likely to extend him than trade him at this point.
Uh...yeah...Let's gets that Calder Cup!!!!
i agree
Josh is playing well. I think they’ll try to lock him up at least for a couple of years.
youneverknow
The Cardinals have lost five of their last six:
Lost 2 of 3 to Cincy and got swept by the Astros.
That didn’t read very well, I admit.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I think you have a tendency to over-rate the Reds a little
though I know you disagree, obviously. I think they’re maybe the 2nd best team in the division but I think we’re clearly the stronger side, on paper. I think their pitching is genuinely just mediocre (maybe not quite as bad as they’ve looked, and I like the back end of the pen), and I don’t think their offense has badly under-performed.
Phillips has a .333 wOBA and I don’t think he’d be expected to be hugely better than that (ZiPS reckons he’s about a .340 guy and that’s about what he’s done in his Reds career so far). Bruce is hitting just fine, I don’t know why you think he’s not “got going” (.373 OBP, and, although he’ll hit for more power going forward, I dunno if his BABIP is sustainable). And, whilst Stubbs and Dickerson have underperformed, they’ve got WAY more than they could’ve ever expected from the catcher position, with a .400+ wOBA (!), which balances that out slightly. They’ve also probably got slightly more out of Johnny Gomes than I’d have expected, which helps boost the flagging outfield a little.
So, yeah, I like the Reds but I’d say, if anything, their record so far has been a bit fortunate.
Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.
by Felonius_Monk on May 18, 2010 5:50 AM EDT up reply actions
yes,they are no match
but we should HOPE they can sustain, just to push our asses.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
and even though they have a negative pythag
IE, not scoring enough to make up for their awful pitching, they have been scoring a lot more than they should. Look at their performance with RISP, esp RISP/2 outs: 128 tOPS+, 153 tOPS+. IE, their entire team is hitting almost as well with RISP/ 2 outs, as Albert Pujols is hitting this year, overall (158 OPS+).
If they keep that up all year, they deserve a flag.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
(other option is, they could be underperforming with no RISP)
but the fact that no one is really under performing their projections (didn’t check, assuming yadi is correct, above) seems like it would make that unlikely.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
Last May
Carp went on the DL with his oblique. With last year’s starting staff, that was difficult to recover from. This year’s team just looks pretty much the same as it has since early in the year, except now the team is hitting a lot fewer homers and the starting staff is deteriorating. I will choose to be pessimistic until certain trends change.
...the starting staff is deteriorating?!
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I do not think that word means what he thinks it means...
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
by TBender on May 17, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i thought we called that regressing to the mean.
but this is math. i am not an expert.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Is "Being Marquis" acceptable?
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
...I'll let MooCow take this one.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
perhaps that's a better choice of words
but their regression to the mean combined with our low BA with RISP makes this team ugly to watch at the moment. So, I will continue to complain (until my complaints work in a reverse psychology way and drag the team out of its current issues).
This still is a great team.
Things just aren’t bouncing their way. It’s at least 75% mental, too. They need a cathartic experience like destroying a copy machine or something…
by mattisnotfrench on May 17, 2010 9:52 AM EDT reply actions
facial hair.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
and 100% high socks.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
the fanbase may need a cathartic experience
a little rally pig, maybe.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Disco Demolition Night
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Ramen Noodle Night...
"I don't like to sound egotistical, but every time I stepped up to the plate with a bat in my hands, I couldn't help but feel sorry for the pitcher." Rogers hornsby.
With regard to Strasburg...
does anyone have an idea why they’re starting Storen’s service time so dangerously close to the cutoff? He’s a reliever, right? Best case scenario between now and June 1 he’ll be worth, what, .25 wins? But Strasburg, who could take three starts from their worst pitcher, stays in the minors?
I no understand.
Franklin !#@$!&*%#
To put it another way,
between now and June 1, Storen will throw five or six innings. It makes no sense whatsoever.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
probably because he is a reliever
if he goes to arb a year early, the financial implications are nothing compared to strasburg. and i’m sure they desperately still want to be relevant when strasburg comes up, rather than having fallen back, and their bullpen needed help quickly – he was their best option for the role.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
If you had seen Bruney, you'd understand.
This is a reward for Storen signing quickly enough to rise through the ranks, a message to the team that we are trying to win now, and a referendum on the godawfulness that was Brian Bruney the man of walks and a 2MPH drop in his fastball velocity. Natstown is rather happy about this. The money we might lose can be made up with the positive things he’s done by signing early.
Bruney cost us 2-3 games with high leverage failures and contributed to overuse of Tyler Clippard. Some of this was addressed with the callup of Doug Slaten, he of former DBacks fame.
Uh...yeah...Let's gets that Calder Cup!!!!
Colby on Bronson
Per Straussie:
Center fielder/philosopher Colby Rasmus described Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Bronson Arroyo’s assortment as "doo-doo" and "a bunch of slop" following the Reds’ 7-2 takedown of the Cardinals Sunday afternoon at Great American Ball Park.
(I don’t feel that I need a unicorn since the direct attribution of the phrase “doo-doo” brings a smirk to one’s face.)
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Goold would have said "(stinkers)" and "load of (guano)"
That Colby’s going to be good for some quality quotes before the year is out.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm a big fan of people referencing things in life to poop...
"I don't like to sound egotistical, but every time I stepped up to the plate with a bat in my hands, I couldn't help but feel sorry for the pitcher." Rogers hornsby.
May was unkind to us last year too; June even more so
2009
Testicle-exploding shit storms, to date: T.E.S.S '08, T.E.S.S '09
I'm just hoping...
to flip that winning % in October.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
by cardzfanbub on May 17, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll be over there, weeping until July...
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
And just for kicks (and trend perspective), here are the previous three years
Woops. Hit the wrong button. That last one is...
Testicle-exploding shit storms, to date: T.E.S.S '08, T.E.S.S '09
Your 2008 looks to be 2009 reposted
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
And now I see that 2008 is 2009 - an edit button would be nice!
This is the real 2008
Testicle-exploding shit storms, to date: T.E.S.S '08, T.E.S.S '09
You should fanshot this..
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
there was some regular season in there, before the avocado.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
2009 season ended October 4th.
10/1 – W 13-0
10/2 – L 6-12
10/3 – L 4-5
10/4 – L 7-9
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
That win against Cincy skews the sss
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Reverse engineered Elias Rankings
fascinatin’
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/05/elias-rankings-update.html
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
They did this last year...
released it every week… had everyone following it… then at the end of the year they moved players up and down because of an excel glitch.
I’m not falling for their reverse engineered stuff this time.
Franklin !#@$!&*%#
interesting if he ends the year a type A
if he doesn’t have a clause like penny. wouldn’t we have to offer arb to get a pick? my present guess would be he accepts it.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
if nothing else, that would be nice negotiating leverage
since he’s not the kind of player teams give up draft picks for.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
I don't know if it's appeared here yet,
but after watching Boog flail away at the plate Friday night, I texted Mr. Bjork24 with a new nickname idea for the Boogster:
Brendoza.
Enjoy.
@aaronjscott
by musialsuspects on May 17, 2010 12:08 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Yeah, me either.
That popped into my head after seeing him strike out in his first at-bat on Friday, especially with his reaction being one of someone who had just received the golden sombrero.
@aaronjscott
by musialsuspects on May 17, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
want something to panic about?
Well...
They do have the kid now, so their free time is probably lacking…
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
by TBender on May 17, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
when that streak started, I was really just joking about the late night diapers...
much longer and who knows…
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
dingdangolecolic.
"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."
by tom s. on May 18, 2010 4:57 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
traditionally the reds are usually off to hot starts almost every season
then they come crashing down to earth as the season progresses. it’s still very very early in the season, and we have to believe that Holliday and some of our other hitters will heat up when summer comes (it’s still over a month away, we are in the middle of spring). lots can happen still, although I suppose we are finding out that our starting pitching isn’t going to be quite this good. good luck to Kyle Lohse today, he is not pitching as bad as many have been griping about, I think he’s just off to a slow start after a disappointing ‘09, and he’s still trying to find his rhythm
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 12:45 PM EDT reply actions
so it's good the reds and the stros don't come together to form voltron?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 17, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
April-May starts for the Reds
2009: 26-23
2008: 27-28
2007: 21-34
2006: 29-24
by Michael_68_1999 on May 17, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
well done.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
Utility role for Boog?
Rotoworld sidebar says TLR considering making Brendan Ryan a utility player once Felipe Lopez gets back. I guess I can’t argue with it from the offensive side, but playing Lopez at SS at all is downright offensive.
I don’t know about sitting Brendan versus letting him “play through it”, but I hope Brendan is not a utility man for long.
Jobu needs a refill
Ryan doesn't need to hit .275 be be a major league shortstop
However, he can’t hit .175 and expect to continue playing like that.
I know Brendan is better defensively
but I’ve always thought that Lopez plays pretty good defense (much better than his reputation) when he is on a team that is good and emphasizes defense. Otherwise, he doesn’t seem to care much about defense. In any case, everyone hopes Boog will start hitting and make the subject moot.
Lopez is going to weigh down the CS's.
The man can’t seem to catch-and-tag. He’d be a terrible wildlife manager.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
the thing is that Lopez is best at 2nd base and 3rd base
not nearly as good at SS
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
we wouldn't have this problem if Greene Tea had been as-advertised
has anyone figured out what is up with him?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
doesn't want to steal boog's job?
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
well of course he does
but so does everyone. I’m just annoyed that this so-called defensive plus is barely playing adequate D. anyone is going to be a step down from Brendan at short, at this point.
y’all better hope this doesn’t coincide with the starting staff hitting a slump.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
if Brendan doesn't get his offensive woes figured out
I will miss his D very much, not just for the pitching staff, but for entertainment purposes. here’s to hoping he gets it turned around ASAP and we don’t have to have Lopez playing at short too often, I’d rather him take over 2nd and have Skip be a utility guy
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
utility guys can usually play multiple infield positions
my man-crush tells me skip will turn it around. as bgh, IIRC, has pointed out, he’s mostly the product of bad luck
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
even if he does though
Lopez is at least as good at defense and is a lot better hitter. he should be playing nearly everyday at second imo (unless, of course, the elbow is more of an issue than we realize)
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
weird thing with skip
from what I’ve seen this far his defense has also been HORRIBLE, zero range and a few errors or near mis-plays, yet his UZR continues to be around average. Still, I think in this case (sample size issues and all) I’d be prepared to say he’s not shown much of a glove so far in 2010.
At the moment, the way they’re both hitting, I think I’d be happy seeing Lopez (or even sometimes Greene) at SS vs RHP and Lopez at 2B vs LHP. I think we’d be better off if Lopez is playing more or less every day. He’s our best MIF IMO.
Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.
by Felonius_Monk on May 18, 2010 6:55 AM EDT up reply actions
skippy has gotten worse defensively
somehow his bit of lateral movement has disappeared.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
yeah
Lopez is our best MIF when offense is considered, no doubt about it
baseball enthusiast
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 18, 2010 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions
What was the advertisement for him again?
Because I think he’s been about what he is — a flashy defender who’s exciting to watch at times, struggles with routine plays, and is a weak hitting Rob Deer with the bat.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
i'm not clear on it
someone keeps insisting he’s got a better rep than that. so I keep expecting it.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
don't forget about the world-class baserunning
he’s got every exciting tool in baseball, and no contact skills at all.
I think he's done pretty well so far in his limited 2010 playing time
I’d be open to giving him a run out now and again, especially if Boog continues to look lost. He’s been horribly unlucky on balls in play and is actually driving the thing pretty well, as well as cutting down on his swinging strikes (SSS etc.)
Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.
by Felonius_Monk on May 18, 2010 6:57 AM EDT up reply actions
the thing about making him a utility man
is that no matter who’s playing around him he should be “filling in” at shortstop.
I am a fan of letting Boog play thru it
when Lopex gets back, we’ll probably see a typically TLR MIF roulette wheel platoon. Lopez will be playing pretty much every day @ 2nd vs. lefties, and Tony will probably put Lopez @ short occasionally against righties. Ryan’s a headcase and I fear that benching him for an extended period will be counterproductive.
i prefer ty greene at short for now
but i’d rather see him playing every day in memphis than sitting on the bench – i’m assuming he got sent down for lopex?
in his 6 starts this year, ty greene is batting .273 (6-22) with 3 rbi’s, 3 RS, 1-1 in stolen bases, and only 3 k’s. one-third of those hits were extra bases, with a dinger and double. he’s made 2 errors, both throwing and in the same game in philly, one of which was a perfectly fine throw that apu misjudged badly. the other was a hot shot to his left that he went down to get, came up and rushed his throw, and the error was given because the runner got second base when the ball went out of play.
i wanted to see how he would respond to the pressure these last two starts, with the full-time job seemingly up for grabs rather than just filling-in for the day, and he was 2-6 (1-3 each game) with an rbi and zero errors.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
He did make 6 errors in 20 some games at Memphis before his call up though
He’s hot and cold, both in the field and at the plate. I just don’t know if I can handle seeing that at SS every night when there are better offensive or defensive options available.
Considering how much Aaron Miles used to start at SS I think that if Lopez repeats his offensive performance for last year, it’s his job to lose.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
And, if Lopez doesn't, there is always Aaron Miles...
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
i'd take hot and cold to cold and cold, which boog's been
both at the plate and in the field. i want to see lopex in also, but prefer him at second.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
If Lopez repeats his offense from last year
he should be playing every day on any team in the major leagues. .390 OBP!
Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.
by Felonius_Monk on May 18, 2010 6:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Hey guys
My wife’s church takes a group every year to a cubs game and saturday was our day to go (this year I organized a trip to a cardinals game as well). I saw the cubs lose to the pirates. I have been to wrigley about 7 times in my life and I have never seen the place as dead as I saw it on saturday. I could not believe that they didn’t score with the top of their line up coming up and the tying run on third with one out. However, Octavio Dotel shut the door on the cubs and that was that. I haven’t had to listen to the stupid Go Cubs Go song for 2 years in a row and I am hoping that I am the angel of death for the cubs when I attend.
When a reporter asked Gaylord Perry's 5-year-old daughter if her father threw a spitball, she replied, "It's a hard slider."
by FredbirdisaDork on May 17, 2010 2:00 PM EDT reply actions
Then you need to go to more Cubs games
Or you brave enough to make the sacrifice? To take one for the team?
if i didnt live 3 hours from chicago then maybe
When a reporter asked Gaylord Perry's 5-year-old daughter if her father threw a spitball, she replied, "It's a hard slider."
by FredbirdisaDork on May 17, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I think they're about 6 weeks from blowing everything up and starting over.
If they aren’t within 10 games of the division by the break, Ricketts is going to tell Hendry to start shopping Lee and looking for ways to dump the Soriano contract (good luck, fuckers!) and move Fukudome, who might have as much value as he’s ever going to have right now.
I seriously might take the day off work to troll BCB if the Cub FO decides to start over. Oh, the hilarity….
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I mean, honestly, Al is the mad genius of rationalizing every move they make....
so I just want to see him try and sell that the team is better off playing for 2014, lol.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
well he was there today trying to explain how they are going to catch the cardinals
forgetting that they almost got swept at home by the pirates
When a reporter asked Gaylord Perry's 5-year-old daughter if her father threw a spitball, she replied, "It's a hard slider."
by FredbirdisaDork on May 17, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
i don't see bud norris on the buccos
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
i never said that it was as bad as getting swept by the astros at home
but its not as if they are setting the world on fire. i was just saying that his optimism was a bit unusual.
When a reporter asked Gaylord Perry's 5-year-old daughter if her father threw a spitball, she replied, "It's a hard slider."
by FredbirdisaDork on May 17, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
they came back to win yesterday
which coincided with the cards fall from the perch of first, and Al is getting his digs in at all the BCB posters who said the cards would run away with the division. i think he pointed out the reds were in first with the same pythag as the cubs presently.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
well, rationalizing it
then coming back a month later and admitting it didn’t work, but that it was worth a shot, but that hey, this new move by the FO is a smart one because you never know, it just might work.
the most hilarious part is they can't even blow it up unless
they’re willing to eat a shit-ton of guaranteed contract $. That whole organization is just a sunk cost at this point.
I know they're a long ways behind
but, going forward, are they really much worse than the Reds or Brewers? I’d say all three are somewhere in the vicinity of being true-talent .500 ball clubs, give or take a few wins.
But yeah, they should rebuild, I think. It’s only going to get worse.
Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.
by Felonius_Monk on May 18, 2010 7:04 AM EDT up reply actions
So, if Lopez comes off the DL and takes over at SS
what’s Tony’s lineup? I’ll go with:
Lopez
Ludwick
Pujols
Holliday
Freese
Rasmus
Schumaker
Molina
Pitcher
or one could switch Schu and Molina, or even put Schu in the 9 spot.
I really wish he'd bat Holliday 2nd
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
i would like
Schumaker
Lopez
Pujols
Holliday
Ludwick
Rasmus
Freese
Yadi
Pitcher
this line up worked at the beginning of the season it was changed around to help get the middle infielders going. And as it got changed around or offensive woes got worse.
here's what I would do
Lopez
Holliday
Pujols
Ludwick
Rasmus
Freese
Yadi
P
Boog
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I like the looks of that.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Or Pujols
Remember chuckb’s great post “”http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/6/13/908230/taboo" target="new">Taboo" on this a while back?
Jobu needs a refill
yeah
if TLR wasn’t dead set on batting Pujols third, here’s what I would do
Lopez
Pujols
RFL
Holliday
Rasmus
Freese
Yadi
P
Boog
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Greetings and salutations Cards Fans
…from your local neighborhood Nats fan. Got to say that I’m hoping the Cards bounce back (but not against us) because we kind of need them to run away with the National League if we’re going to have a prayer of making the Wildcard.
Glad to see FLop in the lineup because it ups the stakes for the series. He was one bad Nat, and I think I got to see his only good game, the one where he hit the goahead Grand Slam against Aaron Heilman of the Mets. My first game at Nats Park. A bright spot in the Not So Good Times of being a Nats fan.
Anyways, hope that we get some well-played games and get some deserved mutual respect. Operation Respect for the Washington Nationals takes on St. Louis.
Everybody in Natstown is hoping that Drew Storen makes a season debut against the Cards at some point during the two game set now that Brian Bruney the Walk Machine has gotten his walking DFA.
Uh...yeah...Let's gets that Calder Cup!!!!
by souldrummer on May 17, 2010 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm a Cards fan living in DC
…and the Nats are my 2nd favorite team. Gotta say, it was rather sucky from the Nats point of view how Floppy absolutely sucked for the Nats then lit the world on fire when he went to the Cards. As a Cards fan, I loved it. As a Nats fan, not so much. I like when the Cards and Nats play because no matter what happens, it’ll probably be ok. Go Cards. And it Cards can’t get over their swoon yet, go Nats! :-)
youneverknow
Half the Nats fans probably have another team that they sympathize with...
BoSox, Mets, Cubs, and Cards being popular choices I imagine.
I personally said goodbye to the Mets in 2005, a move that they I cherish everyday.
I’d be a pure FLop hater if it wasn’t for that Heilman homerun. He was part of that big Bowden deal that included Austin Kearns (yuck, yuck) for Gary Majeski and some other stuff that escapes me. FLop couldn’t handle that we had a hard time playing when he wasn’t producing and didn’t run out grounders and stuff.
Part of the reason I respect Guzman (but want him off the roster if someone would take his contract) is how he’s handled Desmond’s rise with grace.
Uh...yeah...Let's gets that Calder Cup!!!!
The Nationals aren’t as good as their early run has made them out to be—the pitching is not as good as it looks, which isn’t very good anyway, and Ivan Rodriguez is hitting .350, which probably isn’t permanent. But they’ve got some real hitters, and Adam Dunn is finally at a position where he does not appear to be soaking up most of his offensive value on defense. And eventually they’ll be able to pretend Stephen Strasburg is finally ready for the Major Leagues!
The Nats have a respectable bullpen and play defense. That’s why they’re certainly a better team than last year. Desmond looks like a solid SS prospect and only RF is a chasm. Livo will end up with a decent line. Olsen has been pitching great. Yes, Stammen and Atilano don’t inspire much confidence to help out but so much in the rotation, but Lannan should get better now that his elbow trouble may be behind him. Don’t sleep on the Nats people. We look like we’re around a .500 team and hopefully we’ll have a chance to prove it tonight.
Operation Respect continues.
Uh...yeah...Let's gets that Calder Cup!!!!
Plus you have Marquis which pretty much guarantees a trip to the playoffs.
You can read it in any tone you like.
Except if you do make the playoffs
he won’t be on the active roster.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down and that foot is me
Well of course he won't.
He’s like the golden ticket. He’s the thing that gets you in, but otherwise his role is quite passive.
You can read it in any tone you like.
Please do not mention...
The Streak That Shall Not be Named. Very superstitious about that. ;-)
Uh...yeah...Let's gets that Calder Cup!!!!
Will not be posting tonight because I will be at tonight's game
/weatherpermitting
Matchup says Lohse vs. Stammen? Good lord.
'Oh, no he didn't!'
I will not be posting tonight either, as I too will be at tonight's game...
in Springfield. Gonna watch me some Aaron Miles!!!! Yay free Suite tickets!
Cardinals Baseball 2010...Catch the Infection!
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on May 17, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
You have to get his autograph
on some sort of pre-packaged box of grits.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
at least I have Adam Dunn on a few fantasy teams?
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
I'd love to see an offensive explosion for the Cards, but...
I expect something along the lines of a 6-5 game, one way or other.
Very exciting
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Awesome...
BR >> Fangraphs
[ducks]
Franklin !#@$!&*%#
by guayzimi on May 17, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agree.
[hides under desk]
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
Hey Houston,
Suck it; you suck
agreed
I love the additional stats that fangraphs has, but for traditional stuff I prefer B-R’s presentation.
since fangraphs got L/R splits
I have to admit I don’t see much point in BR anymore, except perhaps for a little more personal bio info (which I prefer wikipedia for anyhow), or, as you said, if you prefer the layout.
Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.
by Felonius_Monk on May 18, 2010 7:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Hmmmm
Using Total Zone for defense….
Should have some interesting comparisons with Fangraphs WAR in terms of over and under valued defenders….
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
what's the difference between total zone and uzr?
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Mostly just a different way of looking at the "zones" involved
It also is usable with the retrosheet data and play-by-play data, which makes it more effective at looking at past eras, which UZR cannot do since it relies on BiS data.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
it will be interesting to compare the two different WAR totals though
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
is the calculation the same besides the TotalZone v. UZR thing?
babip giveth... and babip taketh away
Interesting note from Bernie
about role switching and Mark McGwire. Worth the read.
The lack of discipline and addiction to video didn’t start when McGwire got here. It was a problem last season, too. The Cardinals basically are repeating the bad habits that led to their demise in 2009. But McGwire is trying to change the approach. To me, altering the approach would be a welcome development — unless, of course, you prefer to see several more months of hideous at-bats.
I want the Walrus back...
change it up, Mark! please!!!
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
the 'addiction to video'
That seems like a throw-in comment. And Bernie offers no further explanation. Exactly how does video correlate to guess-hitting?
WHOA!!!
RT @MatthewHLeach: Pujols to bat clean up tonight for 1st time since 2003…Flip Lopez leading off and Holliday in the 3rd slot #stlcards
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
it's a mirage
like the way bernie’s clothes make him look very overweight
by _pistol_ on May 17, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
CATS AND DOGS LIVING TOGETHER!!!
I call this a failure if the Cards’ offense fails to score 10 tonight.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
if this works out
i wonder what the chances are of it sticking
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
i don't think that's comparable
tony has said all along that the chances of albert batting anywhere but third were none
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Though I'd prefer
Lopez, Holliday, Pujols, Rasmus, Ludwick, Freese, Molina, Pitcher, Schumaker/Ryan
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
I'd prefer:
Lopez
Holliday
Rasmus
Pujols
Ludwick
Freese
Molina
Schumaker
Pitcher
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
That makes too much sense.
TLR will never go for it.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on May 17, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Mmm. I can't see Holliday ever being second, but....
Lopez
Ludwick
Holliday
Pujols
Rasmus
Freese
Molina
P
Schumaker
Would be pretty close to ideal, in my mind.
if pujols is going to bat 4th
why not bat the pitcher 9th in your lineup, so yadi gets more opportunities to drive in runs, rather than being pitched around to get to the pitcher?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Pitcher batting 8th
still nets a higher win expectancy, I believe.
i could maybe see it if schu was on one side of the pitcher
and boog behind the pitcher, but i think you have to also take into account the personnel involved.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
molina should be 9th.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
I think both the team and the fans needed something like this
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't understand this.
Why would you shift your lineup so the best hitter on the planet will get less PAs over the course of the year, and, potentially the game?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
well
it’s better than drawing out of a hat, like Billy Martin used to do with the Yankees.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
cleanup should have more runners on ahead of him
but yeah, if they move him from 3rd I’d rather see him bat 2nd instead, but oh well.
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
whatever it takes to get holliday in front of pujols where he's always belonged
holliday has stated a few times how he prefers batting third, always ending with a “but i understand…” no more excuses!
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
It's a trade off between...
at bats over the course of a season and the probability of runners on base. I wouldn’t bat Pujols or Holliday second. Our #1 and #9 hitters just don’t get on base enough.
Franklin !#@$!&*%#
Linking to chuckb's "Taboo" posting again from last year
The cleanup spot would also be a better spot for Albert than the number 3 hole. The 3 hole does see more PAs over the course of the season but the advantage to the 4 hole is that he comes to the plate more frequently w/ runners on base, thus allowing the team to take advantage of Albert’s ability to hit for extra bases. And when the team goes 1-2-3 in the first, you’d get to take advantage of Albert’s ability to reach base by having him leadoff the 2nd. Three times in Albert’s career he’s had more PAs w/ runners on base than w/ no one on base. Two of those were in 2001 and 2002 when he most frequently batted 4th in the Cards’ lineup. Now, this year’s lineup is very different as there’s no Edmonds or Rolen in their primes but that’s a distinct advantage to hitting in the 4 hole.
.
Jobu needs a refill
Me either.
TLR was the same one that shifted McGwire, a prototypical cleanup guy to 3rd to get him more ABs…..granted that the move was to help him keep pace in the HR chase, but the philosophy of getting your best offensive player more PA seems sound to me. If you want Holliday in front of AP, to both help Matt and increase the OBP of the hitters preceding Pujols, put him in the 2. Our best chance of winning is with AP at the plate, and you are taking ABs away from him, diminishing the opportunities he has to hit.
Hitting AP less, for whatever reason, seems to make less sense to me. Obviously you want him in RBI situations, which prevents his leading off, but the 3 seems like the perfect union of plenty of hitters ahead to get on base and maximum amount of PAs in an RBI slot. So, I don’t think I like it. Unless it works brilliantly, of course. In which case I proffer my full support. :-)
by fuegophil on May 17, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i'd prefer
lopex
holliday
pujols
rasmus
ludwick
freeze
yadi
pitcher
schu (actually i’d prefer greene here, with lopex playing second, but tony has to have some grit, i suppose)
but any lineup that bats holliday in front of apu is ok with me, especially considering holliday’s preference, for whatever reason, to bat third – so maybe he’d suck in the two spot?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
In all honesty, it's a move I can get behind, but I don't like Holliday hitting 3rd
I’d prefer him 2nd, and someone like Luddy 3rd. Crazy stuff from TLR huh.
by jd is legend on May 17, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
At this point.
How can anything he tries be worse than what they’ve done for the past two weeks?
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on May 17, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
It doesn't really matter beyond making the players happy...
they probably have all kinds of unfounded beliefs about hitting second, third, fourth… Just mollify the idiots and call it good. That’s what I would do if I were a manager.
Franklin !#@$!&*%#
He could fire McGwire and re-hire Hal McRae
Or, he could bench Yadi and call up Matt Pagnozzi
by jd is legend on May 17, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
He could abandon all coaching and just tell them to be "aggressive"
- “You’re not up there to walk”
- “See, Stavinoha gets it, what the fuck is wrong with the rest of you?”
- Moar dingers, Skip!! How you expect to get paid?
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Nothing wrong with it
but hitting Rasmus or Ludwick third with Holliday hitting second is probably better.
This might have been requested by the players. Holliday has hit third for most of his career, and Pujols really doesn’t care where he hits I don’t think. Maybe they think it will help Matt get out of his funk or something.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
not trying to be obtuse here
but hitting Rasmus or Ludwick third with Holliday hitting second is probably better.
I know this has been discussed before, but what’s the thinking behind this? Naively I would expect 2nd Ludwick/3rd Holliday/4th Pujols would be the best arrangement…..
By run expectation
you should bat your best hitter second and your second best hitter fourth. It also says that your third best should lead-off, your fourth best should hit fifth, and your 6th best hitter by wOBA (that’s what I’m using here) should hit 3rd. We’d probably never see that happen, but having Rasmus, Holliday, Ludwick, Pujols, Freese would probably be our best lineup in the long run.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
also
you want the higher SLG, lower OBP guy 3rd, since he bats more often with 2 outs and no one on base. You want a guy who can drive himself in.
Putting a guy like albert there wastes a lot of walks.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -the modern lovers
I thought I remembered reading somewhere that you should put your best two hitters #2 and #4
Why I said I’d prefer Holliday 2nd. Maybe I shouldn’t have said “I don’t like it” because it’s a new idea and having Holliday’s OBP in front of Pujols is always a good thing. I shouldn’t expect TLR to go with a completely radical lineup change. Baby steps!
by jd is legend on May 17, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
i like it too.
i prefer someone who hits for average than someone who hits for power at #3. with runners on, you want to advance them as often as possible, and get on base for your RBI guys at 4 and 5.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
theoretically, holliday does both (power and average)
but i’ve seen a whole lot of meaningless hits from him lately.
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
I wonder how many innings he's led off because Albert failed to get on base...
Because if Albert was being more like Albert, our offensive woes may not be so, well, offensive.
You can read it in any tone you like.
question is
if someone were on base, would he get any hits? i don’t know how often he’s led off innings, but it sure seems in the last couple weeks the bulk of his hits have come with the bases empty, be it 0,1, or 2 outs.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Well...
He’s had 28 PAs to lead off innings and his line looks like this: .393/.393/.607. No walks with the bases empty, but .393 OBP is nothing to sneeze at.
He’s doing really well with a runner on first (.333/.417/.714), but add more runners or move that one guy to a different base and he’s not doing so well.
You can read it in any tone you like.
just exactly how it's seemed
i wouldn’t be averse to him batting leadoff, except that only guarantees leading off the first inning.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
yeah, me too
i wouldn’t really bat him leadoff (unless he started stealing bases like rickey henderson)
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
iiiiiinteresting
this gives me a reason to blow off studying and watch the game. I mean, a player batting in a position one spot removed from where he normally bats. HOW COULD I NOT WATCH!
by mattyp on May 17, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Where have you been?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
wow! Just WOW.
I thought Albert was the one who wanted to bat third and would fight this but……..
If batting in front of Albert is what it takes to get Holliday going, I"m all for it.
And i thought the Cards were not playing tonight. So that’s why there are two WOWs.
pujols batting cleanup
floppy off the DL
wow
http://twitter.com/MLBSTLCardinals/status/14179643597
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
fuckin A right!
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
Albert has hit 4th as recently as 2007. I would imagine he was subbed in late in the game and moved into the 4th position, but it’s happened. They’d be more accurate saying
Pujols tobatstart at clean up for first time since 2003 season…Felipe Lopez is activated from DL and will bat leadoff tonight against Nationals.
by jd is legend on May 17, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
pujols probably batted fourth
when he was subbed in as a relief pitcher.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i thought it was juan rivera
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i doubt you thought that
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I forget if Steinbrenner is still calling the shots from his hospital bed...
or if he’s passed to the great beyond.
Franklin !#@$!&*%#
is he hospitalized?
i knew about the wheelchair and all…can’t stand the yanks, but i gotta feel for the boss.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Speaking of relievers be released.
Kiko was released by the Mets.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
For the Buffalo Bisons,
it will. The press release says Kiko allowed 15 runs in his last three apearances (?!). And it’s true.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
how's about that shoulder, eh?
Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.
by Felonius_Monk on May 18, 2010 7:14 AM EDT up reply actions
quick article from the PD
here.
Doesn’t say much else. Says last time Pujols didn’t bat third, the immortal Eduardo Perez did. Also, points out that you’d expect the pitcher to be hitting 9th with Pujols 4th.
Cardinals Lineup
Lopez SS
Ludwick RF
Holliday LF
Pujols 1B
Rasmus CF
Freese 3B
Molina C
Schumaker 2B
Lohse P
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
I like it!
no I love it! well, as much as I can love a Cardinal lineup right now.
I’m still for Albert 2nd, but clean-up > 3rd. It’s a start to fixing the offense. Getting Lopez back helps too.
Don't statistically you want best hitters #2 and #4?
Something like this?
Lopez
Pujols
Holliday
Rasmus
Ludwick
Freese
Molina
Pitcher
Schumaker/Ryan
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
Yeah I'm no new stat expert
But that lineup definitely would be worth trying
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
What do you mean?
Worth roughly 3 wins compared to Albert batting third?
by jd is legend on May 17, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
yes, as opposed to 3rd
3 wins seems a tad high though. sorry I’m out of town and can’t find the link
I think it's maybe more like 3 runs
3 wins is insane.
Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.
by Felonius_Monk on May 18, 2010 7:15 AM EDT up reply actions
this is a beautiful lineup
here’s hoping felipe comes back strong and healthy
"Did you just grow a mustache?"
"While SPINNING."
This seems HIGHLY appropriate today.
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
Hey Houston,
Suck it; you suck
by vexedtechie on May 17, 2010 4:54 PM EDT reply actions 8 recs
I will always rec this.
>Pitcher Change: Felipe Lopez replaces Ryan Franklin, batting 7th, replacing third baseman Felipe Lopez
Zito's Unicorn Voicemail
According to NBCSports.com, here is a voicemail left by the San Fran lefty for a talk show host:
“Oh gee, uh, dude, not good, man. Ah, so I came down to the Unicorn Club to have some breakfast this morning, to see a couple friends, um, I went downstairs to the stables, saw a couple unicorns down there, and went up to this one that was my favorite, you know the one I told you about, Powder, and I just started playing with his mane, braiding it and stuff, and I don’t know what happened, the stable manager came in and started yelling at me, freaked out, told me he was quarantined because he had some kind of something and now I’m a threat to his health. And now they’re just holding me down here, and told me I could make one phone call. Luckily I have yours memorized, which is rare these days …”
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I'm sure we all assumed this
Tyler Greene sent down to AAA. // RT @B_Walton OF Tyler Henley placed on Memphis DL to make room for SS Tyler Greene. #stlcards
....my quick smells like french toast...
Twitter: @mstreeter06
Rumblings from Chicago
Couple radio peronalities have suggested the white sox shop Buhrle to St Louis. I can’t imagine the Cards being interested. Anyone here fond of that idea? Maybe as a reliever?
The purpose of the exercise is to win the World Series
by Walking Underwear on May 17, 2010 5:17 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
$14MM in 2010
and $14MM in 2011. We don’t have the payroll space for his contract, especially his contract in the bullpen.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
They'd have to send us a staggering amount of that remaining money
but if they did so, they’d want a better prospect back, which we shouldn’t do. I’ll pass
can't see he or peavy to the pen
though they’ve been equally bad in era and fip. i think their rotation was the reason some people gave them a chance against minny in the division, but it hasn’t worked out so well thus far.
i’d take a chance on beckham even though he’s been hitting like boog, but supposedly he was untouchable in talks for gonzo.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Beckham's going to be a stud.
Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.
by Felonius_Monk on May 18, 2010 7:16 AM EDT up reply actions
i root for him
having seen his every game last year, but i was never that enthralled where i wouldn’t ship him for gonzo – beckham is not utley, imo.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Unless they plan on shutting down Garcia
There are 5 starters in the rotation.
Not afraid to nitpick
But MLBTR says the Sox aren't interested in tradin' players.
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
Hey Houston,
Suck it; you suck
kenny williams should be talking to the yanks
now that nick johnson is having wrist surgery.
also, the idea of oswalt to the nats is interesting.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Lopez leading off
King Albert in clean up spot
perhaps boosts offense?
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 7:38 PM EDT reply actions
as my avatar
and twitter background show, Joe Strauss is not making any more of a fan out of me for all the Boog bashing.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
So, it was Albert's idea to change the line-up to help Matt.
I’m looking forward to seeing how this plays out.
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
VEB: WWGTD
by The Continental on May 17, 2010 7:56 PM EDT reply actions
I'm glad to hear that.
I was a little worried that this would upset Albert in some way, but it being his idea puts that to rest, obviously.
he probably got tired of holliday saying he preferred batting third
and also of losing, and knowing tony wouldn’t put holliday in front of him where he belongs, albert took the bull by the horns – could be he demanded it. maybe apu will stop pressing now – it seemed like he didn’t have a lot of confidence in holliday to drive the runs in if he didn’t.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
If Albert really was worried about that, then he'd be correct.
All I know is that Albert needs to get back to being Albert or we don’t have a prayer.
You can read it in any tone you like.
he's gonna do it - he's albert
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
awesome! very cool
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 17, 2010 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Mac: Albert's doing fine. He's just not seeing anything to hit.
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
VEB: WWGTD
by The Continental on May 17, 2010 8:05 PM EDT reply actions
Hey, a thought.
If you aren’t seeing shit in the zone to hit, let them go past you, and take your free first base!
by Voxx on May 17, 2010 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i think he'll see more with rasmus behind him than holliday
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Dude, Albert does this EVERY year
He goes through a period where he’s not getting crap to hit and he expands his zone. It goes away.
Lol, what the hell?
I know no one gives a shit about my fantasy team, but I have Javier Vazquez on my Bench….and someone actually offered me someone for him. Guess who?
A Cardinal! A very productive outfielder, in fact. Colby Rasmus.
I’m still looking at this thing to see if there’s some kind of catch, because in my mind, Jettisoning Vazquez (who I do think will rebound, but still) for even waiver wire trash was tempting.
My OF is quite solid, but…Colby would replace Carlos Quentin in the Utility slot.
Ah! Spants! FoxTrax does us Pitch f/x!
Now we know.
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
VEB: WWGTD
by The Continental on May 17, 2010 8:10 PM EDT reply actions
We do, indeed, have
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
VEB: WWGTD
by The Continental on May 17, 2010 8:23 PM EDT reply actions
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