Shutting Down Garcia
by JWO on May 10, 2010 5:30 PM EDT
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I suspect a number of you panicked when you saw that headline. Allow me to reassure you, Jaime Garcia is (to my knowledge) still in the best of health, and planning on taking his next turn in the rotation. However, I've begun to quietly wonder when the Cardinals might reduce his workload or perhaps cut short his season.
My main concern and interest is how Jaime is recovering from Tommy John surgury. He pitched a paltry 37 innings in 2009, which means he has ALREADY passed his total from last year. Jaime's numbers after six outstanding starts are as follows:
38.0 IP - 1.08 WHIP - 1.18 ERA
Throw in the fact that he has 30 strikeouts, has given up no homeruns, and hitters are managing a savage .195 batting average against him. These numbers are excellent. In fact, they may be award-worthy. But what are the Cardinals to do at this stage? How many more starts do they run him out there? And what happens if he maintains these fantastic numbers into say, July? Do Mozeliak and the Cardinals braintrust rest the kid with 130 IP, and hope its enough for the ROY? What if he's needed for a post-season push?
There are no easy or right answers, but I wondered what folks thought. Any opinions out there? (By the way, I know it seems early to start this kind of talk. But I doubt that many would argue Garcia is critical to the club's future and balancing the books with the Pujols contract.)
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Too much?
My thoughts are to keep him on this pitch count, I don’t care if he has a perfect game going with 100 (arbitrary #) pitches – take him out at that point. Also, keep in constant contact with the kid about how he feels after each game. Keep his arm warm, keep him constant in his preparations. I would not shut him down unless he feels the most minimal discomfort in his arm or we are out of it and won’t make the post-season anyway.
TLR would get eaten alive
if he took out Garcia pitching a perfect game – which if you’re talking about it, it’s probably the 7th inning or later.
Actually, there are easy and right answers
Easy: let him pitch till his arm falls off
Right: let him pitch until he says he feels a little discomfort
Testicle-exploding shit storms, to date: T.E.S.S '08, T.E.S.S '09
by dan on May 10, 2010 6:37 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
Your sig reminds me
I had a team on the other side of a T.E.S.S. for once! It was much better on the other side!
by jd is legend on May 10, 2010 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
What if he isn't honest or doesn't understand the difinition of "discomfort".
That’s a pretty arbitrary term. “Discomfort” to one person may be completely tollerable to another.
Life is tough, but it's tougher if you're stupid.
- John Wayne
June offdays
give the team opportunity to skip a turn or two with Jaime. First three Thursdays are off days followed by an off Monday. four days off between June 3 – June 21. Throw in the May 24th and July 5th offdays and Garcia could be skipped four times in the rotation without anyone going on short rest between May 24 and the all star break. Those four starts could reduce his season workload by 24 – 28 innings.
I would personally like him to be available in Oct. I also wouldn’t arrange anything so Jaime has a better shot for ROY.
I wonder if Tony will do that
I’d go check BR to see how many times he has skipped a starter like that, but with the starters we have had the last few years, it seems like a futile effort. I would think that if he didn’t skip Carp a couple times last season when the division was mostly in the bag, he probably isn’t going to do a lot of that for Jaime.
I DON'T GIVE A FUCK!
by mattyfrommo on May 10, 2010 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
We've been too injury plagued the last two seasons
to get a good read on how Tony would work that situation. We also didn’t have 3 consecutive weeks of off days at any point in the last two seasons if I recall correctly.
I do think they’ll give him some starts off as the season progresses. I think they’ll try to keep him around 150 IP this year, and I doubt he’s in the top 3 for the playoffs, although I would guess he’s the 4th starter if one would be needed (and with Carp in the top 3 I’m guessing that’s likely).
So far he’s looked pretty comfortable, and doesn’t seem to be laboring at any point during any of the ballgames. His pitch count has only gotten over 100 once I think.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
i would like
at some point during the season to run waino on 3 days rest just to see how he responds to it. he’s really the ace of the club all things considered, so it’d be nice to see if that option is available for the post season
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
didn't skip carpenter
in September, but gave him extra day’s rest 3x after the big performance on Labor Day in Milwaukee.
Totally different rotation then- but during Aug 09, there were 3 weeks in a row with no Thhursday games. That allowed the Cards to tinker with rotation, trying to work in Lohse (and find one last start for Wellemeyer- 9/14/09).
Also 5 days off in Aug 09- can’t recall how that effected the rotation.
by baked mcbride on May 11, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
as a fan
i want Hymez to win the ROY.
but if i’m mozeliak, i don’t want winning it.
keeps him cheaper.
/terrible thing to say
"Franklin has no patience for bloggers who believe because he pitches to contact, his start last season was something of a fluke."
not exactly sure how that would keep him cheaper
but don’t expect the org. to go out of their way to win him ROY – there are far bigger considerations. i expect to see a few roster machinations in august where perhaps otto/lynn come up to make a start here or there, not bumping garcia into 8 days rest, which i don’t think would be good, but setting everyone back a day – even if it means temporarily carrying the extra pitcher – and then the same when rosters expand, up until just before post-season, when they should get back on normal rest/rotation. however it’s achieved, i think 150-160 is the drop-dead breakpoint in the innings they are willing to allow garcia to pitch in the regular season.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
How on earth can Jaime win the Heyward of the Year Award?
Surely he’s not qualified?
Chris Carpenter doesn't give a fuck about your fantasy team.
by Felonius_Monk on May 12, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
hopefully Freese doesn't steal too many of his votes
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
On track for Super Two
this offseason. Cot’s has him at 1 yr 147 days of service time at the start of the year. The only way he misses Super Two is if he is optioned to Memphis for more than 20 days.
Perhaps merchandising, etc...
offset the additional salary that winning ROY might bring…?
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
The problem is
even if Jaime is skipped in June, skipped again in August (both 3 game series with offdays on both sides) and pushed back at the All-Start break, he would still have 23-24 starts (at least 140 innings) by the end of August. If he continues to pitch through September, he would add another 6 starts (perhaps 36 innings at his current rate). With the (hoped for) playoffs, he could easily end up with over 190 innings this year, far too much in my view given he hasn’t previously thrown a full major-league season. Unfortunately, I expect the powers-that-be will push Jaime this year. I just hope we don’t look back in a few years on the handling of Jaime this season as a big mistake.
Leave Him Be...
….and let him make his starts. He’s the 5th gut in the rotation, and so will get the least amount of starts. But he needs to work his way into condition, not sitting someplace. I do NOT like the Joba Rules, and I don’t think they should apply to Garcia. He’s in a position to make less starts than the udder guys in the rotation, and as long as we aren’t making him pitch into the 8th and 9th every outing, and maybe rest him a bit if he’s ahead after 5, then he should be fine. But it is not a good thing to take a pitcher and sit him down for no reason udder than to not use him. That makes no sense. And he has nothing left to prove in the minors.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
yep
it’s impossible to predict how is arm will react… just don’t want to overpitch him, but that goes for any pitcher really
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
the guy has to pitch. He will gain strenghth and if not then toward the end of the year you may have to sit him some
by Rickfansince76 on May 12, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
As a No. 5 starter,
he likely won’t approach 200 innings and probably won’t even get to 175 innings. He is going to pitch somewhere this year, so why not get the innings for him as a Cardinal? I agree MooCow. Let him pitch and take it game by game, as with any other pitcher.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Could he be our post-season Phillie-killer?
He’s had a spectacular stretch of starts, though I suspect the league will develop a book on him. But I’m more interested to watch him pitch than Waino, Carp et al mostly to find out if he is the missing piece for our next WS title.
he may need to be a rocks killer, though
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i know the roxs could be dangerous
but phillie killer is more beneficial right now… (i think 2 straight WS appearances and essentially the same roster has given the the edge over the rocks)
Rasmus can hit lefties
cardinalred
St. Louis Sports blog
by stlcardsfan4 on May 12, 2010 2:38 AM EDT up reply actions
5 game series would be interesting
could come down to ubaldo vs. halladay. the rest of the pitching i might give the nod to the rocks, but it’s a close matchup all-around at this point.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Absolutely, I think you need to
at least somewhat limit Jaime this year, especially if we’ll need him come postseason. A very strict 95-100 pitch count is likely in order, and skipping starts when off days present themselves. He’s still fairly young, he’s coming off major arm surgery, and he has some delivery issues that might be a harbinger of injuries to come.
If we can skip over him and let Carp/Wainright/Penny pitch on normal rest, I’m all for it.
Matt Morris
When Matt Morris missed 99 with TJ surgery he came back to throw only 53 innings out of the pen in 2000, then followed that up with 216 innings in 2001. That seemed to work out fine. I think as long as Garcia isn’t experience any pain or discomfort, it is better to let him pitch. He’s healthy now, he was hurt. I don’t think it’s a good idea to limit healthy arms. That is assuming his doesn’t develop a tired arm or the aforementioned discomfort.
Big difference though...
Morris had thrown a full season of big league ball before, Garcia hasn’t. He knew what his arm should feel like after making 20 straight starts on regular rest, Jaime probably doesn’t know that. Being in the minors on a pitch count every start and throwing a max number of innings is a bit different than pitching in a big league rotation…
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
It worked out fine
until Matt Morris’ arm fell off 3 years later!
I wonder how much damage Matty had done to his arm from Tony riding him so hard. Wainwright was getting the same treatment most of the last two years.
by Hardcore Legend on May 12, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Waino took the Hero Ace mantle over and TLR is content to ride him into the ground.
I’m actually as worried about Wainwright holding up all year as I am Garcia.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
man
this fanpost title gets me all angry when I read it. sorry, jwo
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 12, 2010 6:57 PM EDT reply actions
Sorry Dude
I wanted something provocative.
And after reading the talkbacks, I’m still not sure what conventional wisdom is. Yes, Garcia is healthy. Yes, we should take advantage of his solid play and continue to ride the hot hand. But unless I miss my guess, Jaime is one of the keystones for the Cardinals success in the next 5-7 years. I’m ready to annoit him as “the chosen one” or anything, but he might even be that cost-effective #2 starter the club will need when Carpenter retires / moves on.
I think the best strategy right now is to keep sending him out there, and then when he hits 150 IP, we option him back to Memphis for the last 1/4 of the year (I think we can still do this). When the post-season starts, we use him as a LOOGY. Whatever the plan, I hope management handles this one delicately.
what if we are in a divisional race with the reds or cubs
and he is our 2nd best pitcher? can’t really just send him down to memphis if he is doing really well. that just doesn’t happen. but I understand your concerns, there’s just no good way to handle it I guess.
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 16, 2010 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Garcia shutting down the competition
he is a bit eccentric
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2010 3:50 AM EDT reply actions
Nats are limiting Strasburg's innings
to 120% of last year’s.
"They're so stunned they didn't even boo!"
John Rooney 5/3/10 referring to Philly fans on Cards 5-run 7th inning
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