I’m not disagreeing with all that you say above, but I think you’re favorably mischaracterizing the majority of previous commenters’ posts about the Pagnozzi v. Anderson issue.

For example, you are correct that it wouldn’t be unreasonable to assert that Anderson was being somewhat sidetracked in favor of Pags. But you have inserted caveats in your circumscribed statement that the vast majority of others did not. Moreover, does the evidence really support the notion that Anderson was being sidetracked in favor of Pagnozzi?

Anderson has moved quickly through the system, reaching AAA at 22 yrs old. He only “stalled,” if one could fairly characterize it like that, upon being injured. Before LaRue’s injury, it was certainly not “unreasonable” for the Cards to prefer that Anderson play at AAA to get healthy, work at developing some power, work at his receiving or other defensive skills, etc. In contrast, Pags is a 27 yr. old organizational catcher who has definitively stalled at AAA (playing parts of 4 seasons there), precisely because he’s not a very good hitter. He’s never gotten any appreciable time in the Major Leagues (only 6 PA) and even then, it was when Anderson was injured. Other more anecdotal evidence shows that the Cards consider Anderson a prospect but not Pagnozzi. For example, the Cards sent Anderson to the AFL (where the best prospects usually go to work on their games and recover from injury) but never Pags.

Also, what of Pags’ defense? You say “most seem to think Pags’ D isn’t as good as reported”? My response would be first, “not true” and second, “so what.” Most people, including the coaches and baseball people with the Cards, report that his defense/receiving skills are good. Baseball America rated Pags as the top defensive catcher in the Cardinals’ minor league system. Perhaps “most” VEB’ers are not impressed with his defense, but what is that worth? Not much. Doubtful that “most” have seen Pags play any appreciable number of innings and doubtful that they’d know what to look for even if they had. Shit, many true baseball scouts cannot discern objectively good defense from bad, even after watching a player play several or many games. Indeed, the only time I saw Pags play a whole game behind the plate was the recent exhibition at Target Field. I came away very impressed with his defense.

And all of this is besides the fact that our ability to judge catcher defense with statistics is severely limited. We have little understanding of a catcher’s effect on calling a game, framing balls and strikes, or a host of other qualities past simplistic (and flawed) measures like CS%. LaDunc’s heuristics about what constitutues “good defense” are far more reliable, even if flawed (and they may not be), than a bunch of random anecdotes by unexperienced baseball people who haven’t seen Pags play very much, if at all.

In any event, VEB (in the aggregate; individual exceptions aside) is very prone to using the lazy crutch of attribution error as an explanatory device for any Cards’ decision that is the least bit perplexing to them. People glom on to what they suspect are the personal motivations of LaDunc, while ignoring objective, reasonable, contrary evidence that would support a decision. Of course, this isn’t a special failing here, it’s all too common everywhere.