Mauer Signs Extension. What Does This Mean For Pujols?

by Sukafish on Mar 22, 2010 1:26 AM EDT

Today, AL MVP Joe Mauer signed an eight-year, $184 million dollar deal with the Twins. While this doesn't guarantee that he would stay a Twin his entire career, it does mean the Twins will retain his services throughout his prime (up until his age 35 season). I don't want to discuss the specifics of the deal or what it means for the Twins. Fangraphs has that covered. What I want to do is have a discussion about what this means for an extension for Albert. My take is after the break.

So, Cards fans, I have to say that while it's a good sign for us that The Other MVP is committed to a full career with his team, the specifics of the deal aren't that encouraging. If you give the fangraphs article a read, you'll see that the Twins are paying full market value for what Mauer can reasonably be expected to provide over the course of the deal. Yes, he was an 8 WAR player last year, and if he maintains that throughout the deal, the Twins will have a fantastic bargain. But he won't maintain it. Nobody does (correction: nobody except Bonds). This is exactly the thing that worries me about an extension with AP. If Pujols signs the exact same deal, it will be effective in 2012, which would take us through his age 39 season. Albert is an exceptional player, but there's a lot of room for age related decline, and a lot of time for injury and decline. What will Albert provide our team as a 39-year-old non-juicing player? I think, as in the case of Mauer, over the next 8 years we could probably expect an average Of 6 WAR from Pujols. This means that if he takes the exact same deal as Mauer, the contract will be worth it. The problem is, with his track record, Albert would be justified in asking for more money. At a certain point, the money becomes too much for the team to handle. Spending 40% of the budget on two players (Holliday and Pujols) is a much discussed and very real problem. How can we contend when we have so much of our budget invested in two aging players? Right now, I think the team's best option is to wait, hope for a merely great year from Pujols this year (6 WAR would do), win the World Series (as if it were so easy) and negotiate next winter. Albert's stock could not be higher than it is now. If we extend him now, the risk of overpaying and hamstringing the team in the future is too great. And as Albert is a true competitor, nothing would bring down his asking price like another World Series ring. What do all of you think? posted from my iPhone (lol what a pain)

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Egads! What happened to my formatting?

And my poll? I’ll try to fix this next time I see a real computer.

by Sukafish on Mar 22, 2010 1:28 AM EDT reply actions

this is a good question, and something worth extended discussion.

i want to throw one thing in. if i were pujols, i would wait until next off-season, primarily because of the economy. the cost of free agent talent in mlb has been heavily driven by the economy. i think it’s very likely the free agent market will be able to tolerate a greater high-end price for his services next fall than it can now.

"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."

by tom s. on Mar 22, 2010 1:53 AM EDT reply actions

economy matters less for premium FAs...

… see Teixeira, Holliday, Lackey, Bay.

i expect there to continue to be contract inflation in baseball (and real inflation in the economy) over the coming decade, esp for 5+ WAR players. If Pujols averages 6 WAR for 8 years, that’s worth ~ $30mn/year at current prices before you start calculating revenue streams from merch, etc. If the Cards get him at $25mn/year, perhaps with some deferred money or a post-playing contract, then it’s a pretty solid deal. Yeah, 40% of payroll to two players is a lot, but it’s certainly doable and that situation would only occur for 4 seasons, presumably while Holliday and Pujols are still in their prime, and after a few pricy contracts come off the books (Carp, Lohse, possibly Molina, hopefully not WW).

yeah, there will be constraints. but it can be done. hell, substituting Garcia for Kyle Lohse makes up $10mn of that; substituting Craig or Mather for Luddy would be another $6mn. just pray for no injuries until 2020.

by kindred on Mar 22, 2010 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions

If Pujols averages 6 WAR for 8 years, that’s worth ~ $30mn/year at current prices

Most estimates seem to be putting the current $/WAR somewhere south of about $3.5m after this off-season, and it remains to be seen (post-recession) whether that’s going to instantly climb back to $5m overnight. My guess would be we see it staying at that level, and the usual 10% (or so) per season salary inflations to continue from that level.

This would make a win worth about $7.5m by the end of Albert’s deal, and worth an average of somewhere between $5 and $6m over its course.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Mar 22, 2010 6:08 AM EDT up reply actions

i think you are a little quick to just lump high-paid guys together.

obviously elite players get paid and paid (excruciatingly) well even in bad economic times. the point is that in good economic times they get paid even better. so, yes, jason bay got paid well in 2009-10; but carlos lee got paid even more in flusher times, despite being basically a 3 WAR player like bay.

pujols might get a $180m-200m contract this offseason, but he might get a $250m contract next season or after his option is exercised if the economy improves. that’s all i’m saying.

by tom s. on Mar 22, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions

For what it's worth

I think it’s extremely ambitious to expect Pujols to average 6 WAR per year, every year, until he’s nearly 40 years old. Whilst he’s an exceptional hitter, very, very few players are that good in their late-40s and (whilst his hitting skillset should figure to age pretty well, I’d have thought) even similarly gifted hitters like Frank Thomas have seen severe nosedives in production (and health) in their late-30s.

Also, guaranteeing a guy until close to age 40 realistically means we can probably factor in at least one full season (on average, perhaps even more) totally ruined by injury. Again, Pujols is an unusually healthy ball-player, but plenty of otherwise durable players have seen increases in their DL time as they’ve approached 40, and Albert already has an extant injury question mark with his elbow.

Saying all that, I think I would still be happy to pay Pujols $23m/yr for the next 8 years, simply because he’s the 2nd most important player in franchise history (and could finish those 8 years as #1) and it’s just unthinkable to let him walk. However, I wouldn’t really expect any surplus value on that deal, and I’d definitely be keen to backload it somewhat and include quite a bit of deferred money.

In my opinion, however, the people saying “I don’t care what it costs, just pay Pujols $30m a year and be done with it” (and there are a lot of them on this blog) are probably wide of the mark. I think making Albert the best-paid player in baseball until age 40 is attractive enough for 2-3 years, but once he hits his decline years, that’s really going to be an albatross.

Personally, I hope he signs something like 8 year, $160m (still makes him the best-paid player on the team, and he HAS stated his desire to stay in St Louis and the fact he’s not fixated with making a historically huge pay-day). I think that’d be fair for all involved.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Mar 22, 2010 6:05 AM EDT reply actions

i think he gets 8/200

and that’s before the mauer deal, which i don’t believe has any bearing on apu’s contract. i think arod’s deal has more bearing, as it will be used to make the point that apu took a home-team discount, which is good pr for all involved.

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Mar 22, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions