So, Cards fans, I have to say that while it's a good sign for us that The Other MVP is committed to a full career with his team, the specifics of the deal aren't that encouraging. If you give the fangraphs article a read, you'll see that the Twins are paying full market value for what Mauer can reasonably be expected to provide over the course of the deal. Yes, he was an 8 WAR player last year, and if he maintains that throughout the deal, the Twins will have a fantastic bargain. But he won't maintain it. Nobody does (correction: nobody except Bonds). This is exactly the thing that worries me about an extension with AP. If Pujols signs the exact same deal, it will be effective in 2012, which would take us through his age 39 season. Albert is an exceptional player, but there's a lot of room for age related decline, and a lot of time for injury and decline. What will Albert provide our team as a 39-year-old non-juicing player? I think, as in the case of Mauer, over the next 8 years we could probably expect an average Of 6 WAR from Pujols. This means that if he takes the exact same deal as Mauer, the contract will be worth it. The problem is, with his track record, Albert would be justified in asking for more money. At a certain point, the money becomes too much for the team to handle. Spending 40% of the budget on two players (Holliday and Pujols) is a much discussed and very real problem. How can we contend when we have so much of our budget invested in two aging players? Right now, I think the team's best option is to wait, hope for a merely great year from Pujols this year (6 WAR would do), win the World Series (as if it were so easy) and negotiate next winter. Albert's stock could not be higher than it is now. If we extend him now, the risk of overpaying and hamstringing the team in the future is too great. And as Albert is a true competitor, nothing would bring down his asking price like another World Series ring. What do all of you think?
posted from my iPhone (lol what a pain)