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Do the Cardinals need to add another Bullpen arm?

In 2009 the Cardinals Starters pitched 1003.2 IP and the Bullpen pitched 437 IP. The starting IP is the highest in baseball and the bullpen is the lowest in baseball. Assuming the 2010 starters will not be as good I have the bullpen pitching 463 innings. Which is still quite good. This is how it currently shapes up under a couple different scenarios with using CHONE projections. When CHONE projected the pitcher as a starter I shaved .5 ERA off their projected ERA.

 

 

With McCellan in the Bullpen
Reliever ERA IP LI RAR
Ryan Franklin 3.68 66 1.8 14
Jason Motte 3.69 65 1.4 11
Trever Miller 3.64 45 1.1 6
Kyle McClellan 3.71 67 1 8
Dennys Reyes 3.73 45 0.9 5
Mitchell Boggs 4.03 70 0.7 4
Blake Hawksworth 4.07 60 0.5 2
Jaime Garcia 3.95 45 0.5 2
Total: 3.82 463 1.01 51

 

 

Without McCellan in the Bullpen
Reliever ERA IP LI RAR
Ryan Franklin 3.68 66 1.8 14
Jason Motte 3.69 65 1.4 11
Trever Miller 3.64 45 1.1 6
Mitchell Boggs 4.03 67 1 5
Dennys Reyes 3.73 45 0.9 5
Blake Hawksworth 4.07 70 0.7 4
Jaime Garcia 3.95 60 0.5 3
Pete Parise 4.4 45 0.5 1
Total: 3.9 463 1.01 48

 

The best current reliever remaining is Russ Springer with a projected 3.91 ERA

 

With McCellan in the Bullpen AND Russ Springer
Reliever ERA IP LI RAR
Ryan Franklin 3.68 66 1.8 14
Jason Motte 3.69 65 1.4 11
Trever Miller 3.64 45 1.1 6
Kyle McClellan 3.71 67 1 8
Dennys Reyes 3.73 45 0.9 5
Russ Springer 3.91 60 0.7 4
Mitchell Boggs 4.03 70 0.5 3
Blake Hawksworth 4.07 45 0.5 2
Total: 3.81 463 1.01 52

 

Without McCellan in the Bullpen AND Russ Springer
Reliever ERA IP LI RAR
Ryan Franklin 3.68 66 1.8 14
Jason Motte 3.69 65 1.4 11
Trever Miller 3.64 45 1.1 6
Russ Springer 3.91 60 1 6
Dennys Reyes 3.73 45 0.9 5
Mitchell Boggs 4.03 70 0.7 4
Blake Hawksworth 4.07 65 0.5 2
Jamie Garcia 3.95 47 0.5 2
Total: 3.85 463 1 50

 

 

Without McCellan in the Bullpen AND Jamie Garcia staying in Memphis all year as a starter aka Worst Case Scenario
Reliever ERA IP LI RAR
Ryan Franklin 3.68 66 1.8 14
Jason Motte 3.69 65 1.4 11
Trever Miller 3.64 45 1.1 6
Mitchell Boggs 4.03 67 1.0 5
Dennys Reyes 3.73 45 0.9 5
Blake Hawksworth 4.07 70 0.7 4
Pete Parise 4.40 60 0.5 1
Replacement Level 4.75 45 0.5 0
Total:   3.99 463 1.01 46

 

Without McCellan and Garcia WITH Russ Springer

Reliever ERA IP LI RAR
Ryan Franklin 3.68 66 1.8 14
Jason Motte 3.69 65 1.4 11
Trever Miller 3.64 45 1.1 6
Russ Springer 3.91 60 1 6
Dennys Reyes 3.73 45 0.9 5
Mitchell Boggs 4.03 70 0.7 4
Blake Hawksworth 4.07 65 0.5 2
Pete Parise 4.4 47 0.5 1
Total: 3.89 463 1 48



So even under the best scenario the most Russ Springer will add is only 2 runs. Which works out to $880K. Is it worth adding Russ Springer who would take IP away from someone younger and more upside? Or would his veteran leadership be worth it? You decide 

 

Source from Beyond the Boxscore

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