Two Schus, Three Ghosts
by DanUpBaby on Feb 9, 2010 6:45 AM EST
552 comments
So Skip Schumaker is a Cardinal for two years at something around $4.7 million. This is an interesting situation—Schumaker is eschewing part of what seems like relatively sure raise in arbitration following 2010 in exchange for a guaranteed year. It works well for the Cardinals, who have Daniel Descalso in reserve but shouldn't be excited enough about that fact to worry about blocking him yet. Schumaker's 2008 and 2009 offensive numbers were almost identical, but despite having no evidence to back it up I'm willing to guess that no team is so confident in his second base defense as the Cardinals, who had this ridiculous idea in the first place.
Schumaker is a tradable—at worst, a dumpable commodity at $2.7 million in 2011, should things play out that way. And even with his numbers depressed by his apparently awful outfield play in 2010 (both UZR and +/- think he was somehow worth -3 runs in 82 left field innings) the Skip Schumaker the Cardinals saw in 2009, second base jitters and all, is a helpful player.
He also has a chance—should he tough it out through 2011—to be the first long-term plan at second base to actually stick long term since Fernando Viña managed briefly to be Wally Pipped by Bo Hart. I'd love nothing more than for Descalso to hit .350 with 15 home runs by the PCL all-star break, but absent that I with Skip the best of luck. Hustle, scrap, etc. is overvalued in almost all scenarios, but here I have to give the Gritmaster credit—it was a wise career move to agree to move to a position where he could hit enough to start, but to work hard enough to be a plausible second baseman by the end of the season as a 28 year-old, .300-hitting outfielder...
Why, that requires heretofore-unseen levels of Playing the Right Way. Doing it for a team that has struggled with second base ever since it began selling Bo Hart t-shirt jerseys requires all the intangibles.
The Ghost of Fernando Viña Past: He's a fine leadoff man when he hits .300. Rick Ankiel takes more flack for it, but Skip Schumaker is not a multi-talented baseball player. He's not very fast, he's hit 15 home runs in 1300 at-bats, and he draws just enough walks to avoid being The Guy Who Never Walks. There's one tool here: he hits .300.
Fernando Viña managed a .380 OBP in his first year as a Cardinal, but he did it by being hit 28 times in 123 games—that's one last gritty avenue for Skip to explore. Without that, he's going to have trouble keeping his job away from the first defensive wizard who gets the GM all moon-eyed while he's hitting .270 in July.
The Ghost of Adam Kennedy Present: Thirty is pretty old for a middle infielder. I've heard a lot of explanations for why middle infielders, particularly second basemen, seem to age like catchers, and Schumaker gets around the first one—he's only been getting killed by Albert Belle types on the double play for one year.
But now that he's turning baseball-30 he has to worry about my pet explanation for second base's high attrition rate: most middle infielders just aren't great hitters to begin with. Roberto Alomar is the exception that gives the rule a legitimate veneer, but Jeff Kent, for instance, lasted until he was 40; most of the second basemen at the wrong end of that over-30 cliff are falling from far lower heights.
When average hitters fall off, they don't have far to go. And when they're playing second base—where there are always young guys who'll play better defense and also can't hit but will do it for nothing, and where guys who can't hang on as utility infielders end up in the first place—it's a short trip to the NRI phase of their major league careers.
The Ghost of Mark Grudzielanek Future: .300 in the middle infield is really impressive, but keep Kansas City in the Rolodex. It is a long-beloved baseball blogger trope that the sports press overrates white .300 hitters with no power, but I'm convinced that General Managers, even the ones who think they overrate these guys, have subconsciously had a fair understanding of their replaceability for a long time.
Mark Grudzielanek walked less often than Skip, and his right-handedness made platoon arrangements more finitely exciting, but from my unscientific observations only Mark DeRosa ranks among recent Cardinals free agent departures more vocally lamented by casual fans I know than Grudzielanek upon his departure. He did all the things a good second baseman is supposed to do: he hit .290, he played good defense, he hit lots of doubles. If you ask someone to describe a second baseman for you, he'll come out looking like Mark Grudzielanek (and by extension, though momup disagrees, the other other guy from the Drew Carey Show.) But the Cardinals weren't interested.
GMs, and fans, and bloggers seem more skeptical of second basemen then they do of other position players. Grudzielanek went on to spend three more seasons with the Royals as the exact same player, but at 35 the Cardinals weren't willing to see him go off the cliff, even if he'd done everything they'd hoped. Skip Schumaker can hit .300 with eight home runs for the next two years but he still might have trouble getting another multi-year deal from teams wary of 32 year-old second basemen.
It's a good deal for the Cardinals; it's a good deal for Skip Schumaker. Win-win-win.
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Replacement Level
I’m wiling to see how Schu develops for another year as last year was a transition. I’m wiling to bet his hitting improves now that he can focus attention on it instead of taking thousands of groundballs.
Having said that, he seems to be very average to me and I wonder whether a scrap heap 2B or decent minor leaguer wouldn’t give you the same for less than $4.7 million. Seems expensive given the current market.
Just win
I don't think his hitting will improve much, if at all.
In fact, I don’t think that there is any evidence that making the vast majority of his PAs last season while playing second base hurt his offense. He hit .302 as an outfielder in 2008. His hit .303 as a second baseman in 2009. His OBP in 2008 was .359 and it was .364 in 2009. I suppose his SLG fell—by 13 points—from .406 in ‘08 to .393 in ’09. This leads his OPS to fall from .765 to .757. His wOBA fell a mere five points, too. I guess he might improve by five or ten points in wOBA, but I don’t really think it has anything to do with the size of glove he is wearing in the field or whether he is standing on grass or dirt when the ball is pitched.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Feb 9, 2010 9:38 AM EST up reply actions
to be fair
The Duke didn’t claim that his position had an impact on his offense; he claimed that his extra practice time in the field took away from his practice time batting. I have no idea whether this is true or not, and the stats you showed still do plenty to contradict the idea, but no one said it has anything to do with the size of his glove, etc.
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 9:56 AM EST up reply actions
True
That was an unfair characterization of The Duke’s comment.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Really?
The Twins just signed Orlando Hudson for $5M. Last year, O-Dog put up a slash line of .283/.357/.417 — all at or above his career averages, while playing average, at best, defense. Does that slash line look familiar? Hudson is two years older, has battled a wrist injury the past two years, and by all accounts that was a great signing for the Twins.
The Cards will pay Skip less than half of what Hudson will get, and aren’t on the hook for what easily could be $4M next year in arbitration. Skip is an essential element of this offense. Without him, there is absolutely no bonified top-of-the-order hitter. He may not be Roberto Alomar for Chase Utley, but this is a great cost-controlled signing for a very underrated offensive player.
I agree that we didn't overpay for skip
but I don’t really think he’s underrated on offense, I’d even venture to say he’s overrated on offense imo. it remains to be seen just how much value he has for that contract, if he plays improved defense and ends up being even a little above average on defense, this contract is very good for the cards, and as danup said, is win win all around
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
Another Quality Post Danup
I happen to like Schu immensely (man crush?). He just seems to be the consumate team player. I find it interesting that a .300 hitter is precious, and a .280 hitter is very expendable. That is what – 15 to 20 hits in a season difference? 2-3 times a month a guy gets a gork, a Texas leaguer, a “ground ball with eyes” and he is HOF material vs garbage? I’ll take my chances with the Gritmaster the next couple of years. I’m happy for him and the Birds. Win-Win is right baby!
SD
Woo Hoo
Someone else who inexplicably thinks that Skip Schumaker is a god among men… we should start a fan club.
The heart is the general, the eyes are the scouts, the fists are the arrows, the body is the bow.
I wish that Skip and Colby could have a love child.
His name would be Skip Rasmus and he would be awesome.
i hope they adopt
rather than attempt this on their own.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 9, 2010 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Colby Schumaker
also has a ring to it….cheese filled shoes?
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
I was afraid of cheese filled shoes
that’s why I went the other waywith the name. Wisconsin ruins it for everyone.
better than cement filled shoes, I guess.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 9, 2010 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
i just hope
the naming issue is settled amicably and doesn’t go to court. that could be a distraction.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
0.020 points of BA is 11 hits in 540 AB's
which is about what we can expect Skip to get (540 in ’08, 532 in ’09)
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
a .280 hitter with a .400 OBP isn't expendable
I hate using BA to evaluate talent….
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
oh man
I wish we had a .400 obp leadoff hitter
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
or two consistent .400 OBP guys for that matter
For the last few years Pujols has been the only consistent .400 OBP guy on the roster, Holliday may change that but wouldn’t it be nice to have more people getting on base?
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
It would really hurt to be a fan of another AL East team.
Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown. - tom s.
.400 wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility though. And that is still damn good.
Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown. - tom s.
I'm just saying you can't reasonably project anyone to do that good
Even Pujols only projects for a .430 ish OBP.
Bah.
He is a good bet to go 30 for 90 with 12 walks in between trips to the DL.
You sell Nick the Stick short, my friend.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
Johnson has had an OBP higher than .400
each of the last 4 years. Granted, most of 2008 he was injured, and all of that time was spent in the NL, but it’s obvious he has a good eye, and can take a walk. Plus, he’s a lefty, and that stadium has that short right field porch. I’d bet he does do it next year.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 9, 2010 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
the Yankees are 3:1 odds to win the WS again.
And the Phillies have the next best odds at 6:1. So Vegas thinks it will be an ’09 rematch.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
technically
vegas thinks people will bet that it’ll be an ’09 rematch.
Vegas thinks they’ll make money off of people who think that the yankees and the phillies will be in the world series next year.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
ah, i hadn't thought of it that way.
that’s brilliant, Vegas. people are dumb.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
peple are dumber than most
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
50% of them are, certainly.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 11, 2010 4:43 AM EST up reply actions
The Yankees and Red Sox
And the Cardinals next year most likely.
The Yankees have 3 guys with at least 5 seasons of .400 OBP in their careers - Johnson, Jeter, and A-Rod. Their offense is going to be AWE SOME. Nothing like having a .360+ wOBA guy in every slot in the order.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Yeah
the worst hitter in their lineup would be our 3rd best….. Eeek…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 10, 2010 6:48 AM EST up reply actions
Gritmaster, you say?
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
by vexedtechie on Feb 9, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
I have rec'd this pic before
I am rec’ing it now, and I will likely rec it again.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
I just get a kick that my first VEB Photoshop is the one that everyone loves
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
but it was all downhill from there
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Second Basemen Don't Age Well Because They Are Generally Defined By Weakness
People rarely are made second basemen for what they can do—they are moved there for what they can’t. Generally, it is either they can’t play shortstop acceptably, and/or that they can’t hit well enough to start anywhere but second (or catcher, but they aren’t catchers).
So, when your position is chosen by your inability to do things, not your abilities, you are a marginal player. And once your strengths start to fade, you are in worse shape. They normally can’t be shifted to short as they can’t field well enough, and they can’t hit enough to play anywhere else.
I don't disagree with you
But I do like to imagine that, somewhere, Chase Utley is grinning a silly grin.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
Chase can hit well enough to play 1st, LF, RF, etc.
Chase is at 2nd because he can play MIF and isn’t confined to 1B or LF like Holliday, Prince, Howard, etc.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
I Said "Generally"
I didn’t say all second basemen suck. Utley will probably age well—he has the the stick to shift if he needs to. But MVP-caliber players by their very nature are exceptions.
It’s not just the second basemen don’t age well—second base “prospect” is generally an oxymoron. And few players are drafted as second basemen, college second basemen generally don’t fare well, etc. Overall, it’s a flawed group.
there's a ton of truth
in your general point.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
As I said, I wasn't arguing with you
I think your point is a good one. I just think it’s a tribute to how silly-good Utley is at baseball how antonymic he is to your general theory.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
So if I'm understanding you right
the win-win-win solution is for Skip to cut up a poster of Grudz and wear it as a t-shirt. That way, everyone else gets to look at Grudz, but Skip still thinks he’s playing 2nd base.
Or he could just have Grudz's photo printed onto a t-shirt.
But you’re right. Your way seems much more normal.
Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown. - tom s.
The first couple seasons of The Office are pretty much on permanent loop in my house
(sorry robot). The phrase “win-win-win” is inextricably linked to this ep in my twisted little mind.
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
I read Ghost...
…and I was thinking Chris Lambert may make another appearance. I’m turning 40 this year, so I don’t think my heart could take that kind of terror. Thankfully, no.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 9, 2010 9:32 AM EST reply actions
Damning with faint praise, DanUp?
But for the last sentence, one would get the idea that you don’t like this deal. . . or Schu’s game?
Schu’s not a superstar or anything, but a guy who has consistently OBP’d within a few points of 360 every single sason of his admittedly short career is an important asset. He’s no Albert Pujols, but he’s also no Bo Hart.
Add in that he’s capable of playing the big side of a platoon, which also happens to be the hardest side to find in a middle infielder, and that’s even more important. I’d kill to have him on a couple of my OOTP teams right now, in fact. /geek
He OPSd 812 against righties last season (322/384/428), 861 in 2008 ( 340/393/468), and 810 in his partial 2007 season (327/340/471).
Bo Hart’s career line was 272/313/385, as a point of comparison.
This contract is fine, whether he’s the big side of your 2B platoon or, Daniel Descalso willing, your 4th OF. And it’s all at a per year cost less than the Royals paid for hte last three years of Mark Grudzielanek’s career.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 9:53 AM EST reply actions
OBP
I think that Dan was pointing out that Skip’s OBP is BA-driven. It is, to an extent. What I find heartening is that he raised his BB% from 7.9% in 2008 to 8.9% in 2009. (It was 4.3% in 2007.) Unsurprisingly, every projection has that BB% falling somewhere in between 7.9% and 8.9% in 2010, but I wonder if Skip’s batting eye improved. If it did, could he be walking at a 9.5% or 10% clip in 2010 and 2011? If so, that would be outstanding.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Skip's batting eye
My eye tells me that last year Skip swung at a lot of breaking balls down and in off the plate (perhaps someone can check if they are interested). If he could start taking those pitches, he could definitely improve his batting. But that is a big IF.
Believe it or not,
Skip’s O-Swing (pitches swung at outside the strikezone) was identical from ’08 to ’09, at 27.2. He did this while also making more contact with pitches outside the strikezone.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Perhaps I should say
that I noticed it last year – Skip may have been swinging at these pitches throughout his major league career – but the lack of improvement from ’08 to ’09 in his O-Swing argues against expecting any big improvement this year
and thanks bgh
for looking this up – I’m just too lazy
Big Mac
isn’t one of the things, that McGwire works with skip on, hitting inside pitches?
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
i think skip and the 2 hitter
can improve their eye and still walk the same because of apu in the 3 hole – they get pitched to. which is why i’d love holliday to bat second, but that’s just my pipe dream, i know.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
yeah
he needs to be batting second (and preferably with Albert at cleanup, but that’s not as much of an issue)
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
agree
skips OBP is BA driven. his minors IsoD was .064, and 08/09 mlb IsoD was .060, pretty much who he is.
He OPSd 812 against righties last season (322/384/428), 861 in 2008 ( 340/393/468), and 810 in his partial 2007 season (327/340/471).
This is a pretty good point, actually – last season he took 109 PA (~19% overall) against lefties and OPSed .518 against them. For his career, he’s taken 283 PA (~19% overall) against lefties and OPSed .491 against them. It’s pretty clear that if he never takes a PA against a LHP he’ll be a MUCH more valuable player.
For comparison, Albert Pujols has faced lefties in roughly 25% of his career plate appearances, which is about the norm. Schu’s faced them in about 19% of his, so he’s really not been protected against them as much as we might think.
Last season, we had Duncan, Ankiel and Rasmus in the OF, and (until Lugo appeared) no real decent 2B backup, which meant Schu probably took more PA than he should’ve against lefties. Hopefully in 2010, with Tyler Greene, Lugo and no left-handed outfielders (other than Colby) on the roster, Schu will never, ever have to start a game against a lefty (which he did 8 or 9 times last year) and can be withdrawn at any point if the opposition brings in a LOOGY.
His career line vs righties is .323/.376/.442, which is, well, pretty excellent to be honest, and he’s not been below a .380 OBP or a .320 BA against them in the last two years – conclusion, Skippy’s a good, if not ELITE leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching, and the extra ability we should (hopefully) have to protect him from lefties this year should make him much more valuable.
Even if he loses nearly all of the ~100PA he gets against lefties, his performance against them is so bad that it drags down his value overall. He’ll also see a spike in his performance by playing fewer innings in the field, because, realistically, he’s unlikely to be a positive defender (even with positional adjustments taken into account). He could easily be worth well over 2 wins next year, if we just keep him away from lefties.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 9, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
It seems like starters with a strong platoon split could be overvalued by context independent metrics
There definitely seems to be some value to be gained by just taking away ABs vs lefties, but I wonder if he should also be docked in value considering that he can fairly easily be neutralized in high leverage situations by bringing in a LH. FWIW, his performance dipped in high leverage situations (a paltry 47 PA) last year. Might this be due to facing more LH pitchers? < sarcasm>If fangraphs would just get double-splits already, we could check this out. < /sarcasm>
Whether this strategy has been used by our opponents yet or not, next year Skip will be one of only two left handed threats, so I don’t see opposing managers being shy about bringing in a specialist to face him, particularly if Colby ends up batting 2nd (hopefully not).
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
Wouldn't such a double-splits database be wonderful?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
This is a fair point. . .
and really an indictment of the Cards’ bench situation each of the last two seasons.
Ideally, a team with a strong bench would make a hitter like Schu with such drastic platoon splits more valuable, as FM indicates. And I’m among those who believe in the power of Julio Lugo’s combination of icy stare and batting eye, but among those who don’t believe in Tyler Greene’s long, hole-filled swing being able to play at the major league level, so for me the jury’s still out on the Redbirds’ ’10 bench.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
Sure. . .
but hitting for average is a repeatable skill, maybe not as repeatable as walking, or hitting dingers, but repeatable nonetheless.
I would not have been as happy if the Cards had signed Schu for 4 or 5 years, but a 2 year deal seems to be very low risk to me.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 10:17 AM EST reply actions
nope!
ichiro and gwynn were just extremely lucky….did i ever mention how much i hate the babip stat?
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Feb 9, 2010 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
it is useful
but only when taken in context. It’s pretty clear that different players can (and do) have radically different BABIPs based on talent, not luck. Being able to (at least somewhat) differentiate the two is what’s important. Schu certainly looks (thus far) like a true-talent .300 hitter, especially if his exposure to LHP is limited…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 9, 2010 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
BABIP can be very telling for pitchers
but I agree that it can be tough to interpret for hitters (particularly young ones without much track record).
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
This is a very good point.
There is a tendancy to use it to undermine a player’s success or to explain away a player’s lack of it. Ludwick is a good example in 2008 (.349 BABIP) as compared to 2009 (.299 BABIP). This is probably due in large part to his LD% falling from 26.3% to 18.5%. But, who feels confident declaring that Ludwick is either the hitter he was in ‘08 or the hitter he was in ’09? I doubt very many people because of the lack of data. Basically, it amounts to a peak and a valley. Most here—myself included—believe his true talent level is probably somewhere in between. But, even that belief isn’t really substantiated in his production.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
then isn't batting average itself much more useful that BABIP?
along with slugging% and OBP%?
wasn’t Ty Cobb’s whole approach to hitting – to hit the ball where they ain’t?
Why even pay attention to BABIP? i like measuring LD%, but BABIP just doesn’t seem useful at all and its frustrating to hear/read average individuals like sportswriters or bloggers say things like “mostly because he was lucky/unlucky because his BABIP….” It certainly downplays a players achievements or shortcomings. at least with straight batting average its black and white. This is how many at bats he had – this is how many times he got a hit. Of course players occassionally get robbed of hits, but they are also occasionally credited with hits when they shouldn’t have been. LD% at least shows they are putting good wood on the ball. slugging pct at least factors in extra base hits. To me BABIP is just stupid to site for any reason. For pitchers or hitters.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Feb 9, 2010 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
what the hell does it matter if a guy has a .400 babip
if he strikes out 200 times a year and shows no sign of reducing his strikeouts?
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Feb 9, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
probably hitting a ton of homers...
but thats has nothing to do with BABIP. outs made striking out are just as bad as outs made grounding out or popping up on the infield, or whatever. average and slugging and obp tell the rest of the story. BABIP isn’t necessary.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Feb 9, 2010 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know if that's true.
Outs made striking out are worse, IMO, because they are rarely, if ever, productive. A strikeout is an out 99.9% of the time. A ground out/pop out can still move a runner over, and therefore be productive. I realize we’re talking about BABIP, but just thought I’d throw in my .02. I’d rather have a guy who makes contact with the ball than one who strikes out a lot.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
by IHeartBoog on Feb 9, 2010 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
what about a guy who makes a ton of strikeouts
as opposed to a guy who makes a ton of groundball outs?
The latter may hit into a bunch of double-plays, and probably won’t move a lot of runners on.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 9, 2010 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
also depends on the speed of the player too
a speedster won’t hit into as many double plays, so everything gets more convoluted
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
Rick Ankiel begs to differ
The Cykiel will always come to fruition!
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
Both should be used in moderation IMHO
there are some players for whom batting average is a repeatable skill, like Bill Madlock and Dave Parker, the patron saints of line drive hitters.
There are other players for whom batting average is a less reliable indicator of true skill.
I’d argue that the former category is the exception to the latter category as the rule. I just happen to think that Skippy falls into the exception category.
I agree that BABIP can be overused, but to say that it has no uses is too ignore a lot of scholarly work on the subject. Voros McCracken wasn’t exactly right, but he certainly opened up a lot of new avenues to understand hitting and pitching.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
i don't think any of the stats are absolute perfect...
but when there is this much question as to the stats true value – why reference it at all for anybody?
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Feb 9, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
We agree.
Sincerely,
Batting Average
ERA
Won-Loss record
Saves
OPS
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i don't see
W/L and saves are on the same level as the other three. the other three are all pretty useful
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
To me BABIP is just stupid to site for any reason. For pitchers or hitters.
What about if you have a player who plays for 8 straight seasons, with an average BABIP of .300 and a batting average of .260. All of a sudden, in his 9th season, his production increases up to a batting average of .300, and he hits much better overall, but his BABIP has also gone up to .340. Do you think that’s a difference in his true talent, or just a guy with a pretty well-established hitting ability getting lucky?
I grant you that BABIP is an abused stat; anyone saying “Well, Skip Schumaker’s gotten lucky because he has an above-average BABIP and hits .300” is probably ignoring the fact that he’s run a decent BABIP for 3 full seasons in the big leagues, so that’s more likely to be a real talent than 3 straight years of luck. Sample sizes are important.
But BABIP outliers, when all other peripheral stats are the same, are good indicators of luck in some cases, and can be useful. Let’s say you’ve got a pitcher who’s been a solid 3.00 ERA guy for a couple of years, then he has a year of a .380 BABIP and a heavily elevated ERA. Now, that might depress his value as a free agent somewhat, and allow you to pick up a potential bargain.
For what it’s worth, LD% (which you like) is, IMO, a much less useful stat than BABIP (properly applied) because it’s completely subjective, and varies too much from stadium to stadium to draw too many conclusions.
This is how many at bats he had – this is how many times he got a hit. Of course players occassionally get robbed of hits, but they are also occasionally credited with hits when they shouldn’t have been.
And if a player greatly exceeds or undershoots his career BABIP in any given sample, that’s a fair indication he got luckier or unluckier than average. Isn’t that useful?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 9, 2010 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
no...
because a player could have simply just had a better season. if he has a better season or “career year” it shouldn’t be dismissed as he got luckier. It should be an indication that he performed better than he normally does.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Feb 9, 2010 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
But, in Monk's example,
the player’s luck would have been the reason for the increased production.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
What about if his LD%, flyball/groundball ratio, walk rate, home run rate
EVERYTHING other than BABIP was basically the same as his career rate?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 9, 2010 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
then either his regular batting average is higher or he's striking out more often
instead of grounding out or flying out
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Feb 9, 2010 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
literally all peripherals are the same as his career numbers.
Same K rate. Same walkrate. Same number of flyballs. Same number of groundballs. Same home-run rate.
But his BABIP is higher, and so is his batting average (and therefore OBP, SLG). Would you put this down to skill or just blind luck? That’s what I’m getting at.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 9, 2010 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
This is the key point to this whole discussion...
BABIP is no more valuable than batting average without batted ball detail. For instance Colby had a HORRIBLE BABIP against lefties last season, but that was due to a very high ground ball rate and a low LD rate vs. lefties. Everyone assumes he will bounce back in BABIP vs. lefties this year, but that will not happen unless he corrects the batted ball issues.
As for Skippy…IIRC he had the highest GB% in baseball at one point last year. That does not usually produce a high BABIP, so I have concerns that his 2009 numbers may actually be inflated by BABIP and we may see a dip this year.
BTW…I’m going from memory here, and have not verified the batted ball detail for Skip or Colby. Feel free to critique.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
colby's BABIP
might have been depressed a bit by a low LD%, but i really, really doubt that a sub-.200 BABIP is completely driven by having a high GB%
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Depends on the type of ground ball
If he’s rolling over the top of outside pitches and hitting weak grounders to the right side, those are going to be outs nearly every time. This is where Hit F/X will fill in some gaps — you’ll get a vector and velocity of the ball leaving the bat, so you’ll know the difference between a weak grounder to second and a lined two hopper that the fielder made a great play on in the hole.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
i know it's possible
but that would be a huge outlier. i don’t buy it. i think colby is absolutely due some regression against LHP
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Agreed
From what I remember about a lot of his AB’s last year, though, he had a lot of weakly hit balls in play off of lefties. Just food for thought.
I absolutely do think that he’s going to be better this year.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
with his speed
it’s also possible he’s hitting the grounders you just can’t beat out, like a one- or two-hop smash right at the second baseman. i seem to recall some of those – what percentage i have no idea.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Ground balls go for a lot more hits than Fly Balls do
especially when you’re left handed and you get down the line pretty well. Also, I would guess that some of Schu’s 2 hoppers through the middle, where the ball lands behind second base, are being considered grounders and not line drives. For a guy with 15 career homers, those ARE line drives. He squares up the ball pretty consistently, so I think it’s pretty conceivable that he’ll be able to repeat his last two seasons in 2010 and probably 2011 as well. Mac coaching him can’t hurt either.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
colby was well-above average on GB BABIP last year
Hi hit .275 on GB’s, compared to a league average of .235.
HIs BABIP overall was low because of performance on fly balls (.071 BABIP vs .142 for the league). He had a surprisingly low IFFB rate (5.3%).
A big part of his BABIP success on GBs is undoubtedly due to being 7 for 14 on bunt hits last year, which count as GB’s at B-R. Whether the fly ball numbers are due to luck or a skill he hasn’t developed are a different subject that does probably require a better tool to figure out…
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
you sure?
because B-R has a separate row titled “Bunts” for hit trajectory type
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
yeah, that's wrong
B-R has them in seperate categories. I got their method mixed up with another site. Good catch.
So not only was he successful on GBs, but his overall BABIP was boosted by hit bunt success.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
Are those for a LH split?
Because that’s what I’m talking about.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
well, no, double-situational splits aren't available
but those would be tiny sample sizes anyway.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
so actually triple-situational splits.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
.725 for the league
.539 for Rasmus… in 13 PA. Fuck triple situational splits.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 9, 2010 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
interesting
i understand it’s a small sample, but that’s kind of the point. it at least explains a portion of his BABIP issues v LHP
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
add those 2.4 hits in
and it raises him from .184 to .215 BABIP vs LHP.
Which tells you all you should need to know about using a split like that to try to analyze performance.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
it's not really
to analyze performance, just to kind of show why he has a .184 BABIP v lefties and likely to regress. even his full sample against lefties is only 115 PAs. not enough to get any kind of a read. i just know that that’s not his true talnet
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Can I propose we just stop talking about this?
by vivaelpujols on Feb 9, 2010 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
But what is the difference between a groundball and a line drive?
answer – what some guy sat in the stadium THINKS is the difference between a groundball and a line drive.
You don’t think there’s not a little bit of bias that says “That went for a hit = line drive” and “That was caught/produced an out = Groundball”?
I think using batted-ball data to predict BABIP is pretty faulty, personally.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 10, 2010 6:55 AM EST up reply actions
i want to know
how more balls in play going for hits is an indicator of being a better hitter. because if it is, it’s a skill that needs to be taught. however, methinks that it is largely luck driven
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
hitting the ball harder helps.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
and outside of steroids
we shouldn’t epect much variance in that
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
well, I'd expect him to make more solid contact as he matures
Both from getting stronger and heavier, which happens naturally in your 20s, and from adjusting to big league pitching.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
i don't know who we're talking about here
but generally getting bigger and stronger is gradual. and squaring up the ball better is gonna show in the GB/FB/LD ratios
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
well, colby specifically, but it's a general statement
almost everyone bulks up between age 22 and age 28. That’s why players peak in their late 20’s.
The GB/FB/LD ratios may change, and i’d definitely expect the HR/FB to increase, but I’d guess that the BABIP_GB, and BABIP_FB would be impacted as well.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
true
but HR/FB should affect his BABIP on FBs in much of a way other than reducing the sample of FBs
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
That may be...
but you can has out whether he performed better by looking at his batted ball data. If his LD% went from 18% career to 25%, with a similar decline in GB% and IFFB%, that season, it’s pretty obvious that he’s performing better — he’s hitting more line drives, which tend to go for more hits. If all his batted ball data stays the same, it’s pretty obvious that he got lucky. More of his GB are going for hits and more of his FB are finding crappy outfielders with no range.
BABIP doesn’t tell you a whole lot by itself. You need a track record and a good sample of batted ball data to make inferences on it accurately. That being said, an extreme outlier of BABIP, (i.e. >.360 or <.240) is a pretty good sign that the hitter is getting unlucky, unless batted ball data reveals an extremely large difference in the number of easy outs put into play, like IFFB.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Hitting it where they ain't.
While romanticized, is not very easy to do as a repeatable skill. What BABIP, especially when viewed in light of other stats like GB%, LD%, FB%, BA, etc., allows for those making roster decisions to determine whether a player will keep hitting like he did in his breakout season or whether he is likely to fall back to earth.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I would disagree with this...
a good contact hitter has a higher ability to “go the other way” or pull or hit it back up the middle. If teams were to put a shift on against them, or run a wheel play the hitter can take advantage of it. The issue is these players usually get defended straight up, so there isn’t a “where they ain’t”.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
But that's kind of my point.
If a player had the skill to hit it where defenders were not positioned whenever he pleased, he would have an astronomical batting average. Sure, contact hitters are probably better at this, but even they hit about .300. Say a contact hitter goes the opposite way through the “5.5 hole” (to use Tony Gwynn’s pet name for the hole between 3B and SS) as well as up the middle and is successful doing this throughout his career. Then, one year, third basemen and shortstops make astounding plays, as does the pitcher, and rob the majority of these hits, driving down his BABIP. Does this mean he is a less skilled hitter or that he just got unlucky?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Feb 9, 2010 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
it seems like you're focusing on BABIP in retrospect
you’re right that BABIP isn’t all that helpful if you’re trying to use it to judge past performance.
But BABIP is useful when trying to predict a player’s future performance.
You can pat a guy on the back all day for the great year he had last year – but if last year was “lucky” according to BABIP, it doesn’t mean you should expect that performance to be repeated (or that you should pay him based on the expectation that he will repeat said performance).
by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 9, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Not all hits are created equal
This is how many at bats he had – this is how many times he got a hit.
Players could have the same BA, but one has a greater percentage of his hits go for extra bases. The difference between the batting value of Skip Schumaker (.303 BA, .336 wOBA) and Victor Martinez (.303 BA, .375 wOBA). That’s the beauty of wOBA (as I understand it). Singles are weighted less than doubles, triples and dingers, along with relating how valuable each offensive outcome is. I realize this wasn’t the point you were trying to make but it is an important distinction. I agree that BABIP is less useful to make predictions when considered only over a single year, but as FM and others say below, the value lies in its ability to predict future performance after significant sample, so as know where on the BABIP scale he fits. a .330 BABIP isn’t always luck, just as a .300 BABIP isn’t always the true talent level.
Some people have their own bowling ball and their own bowling shoes and no friends.
You must be the change you wish to see in the world.
they aren't really comparable stats
BABIP is a peripheral that helps you better understand things like BA and OBP
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
LD % seems to me to be the best
indicator of a hitter’s ability. so is there a chart out there that shows what a certain LD % should, on average, correspond to in BABIP? then we could see if a player’s BABIP was lucky or unlucky, based on the norm. i often see written that player x was lucky based on his .330 BABIP compared to league average of .300, but it’s entirely possible he was in fact unlucky in that his LD % should correspond to a .360 BABIP.
of course, ichiro and some speedsters, especially those who can bunt, wouldn’t fit into this model, but the vast majority of mlb hitters would
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
the rule of thumb is. . .
BABIP = LD% + .120
It certainly breaks down at the margins, and shouldn’t be used as anything more than a rule of thumb, but I like it. (Admittedly, I like it more than most.)
There are certainly problems with classifications of line drives/fly balls/ground balls.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
the variance in classification of batted balls
is the big problem, true. thanks for the formula. i’m a believer in the line drive above all else.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'm skeptical of LD%
Rob Neyer type comparison of some players from the 2009 Cardinals (LD% from fangraphs):
Player A – 15.6%
Player B – 17.3%
Player C – 25%
The three players are Albert, Holliday, and Joe Thurston.
Player C is Joe Thurston. Player A is Albert.
I’m skeptical of this stat.
i am also skeptical of Fangraphs BABIP data
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 9, 2010 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
They use BIS, which is generally considered to be the best
B-R uses RetroSheet which uses GameDay data, which is what I use. BIS is probably better than GameDay, but not much.
after little to no research...
it seems like fangraphs system rewards more line drives to slap hitters like skip. Maybe it because a lot of Albert’s Line drives hit the wall or go over it, they are considered fly balls? I dunno. Pure speculation.
Fangraphs seems to never have line drives that go for home runs
That to me is the biggest difference in the numbers.
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 9, 2010 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
Line drives IMO pretty much never go for HRs
This was the lowest elevation angle on a HR of the year. I don’t think it’s too unreasonable to call that a fly ball but at best that’s a borderline line drive.
Not afraid to nitpick
depending on the player
League average HR/LD% in 2009 was 1.9%, but for a guy like albert it’s significant (he hit 16 LD HR’s last year, according to B-R).
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
no research
There was no research at all. It was more of a half thought. It just seems like guys like Skip, Kennedy, Thurston and the like always carry a high LD%. It’s an impression. I have no evidence to support any of this.
a very little bit of research
Here are the top 3 LD% hitters with atleast 250 PA since 2004:
2004: Womack, Renteria, Sanders
2005: Nunez, Taguchi, Grud
2006: Eckstein, Taguchi, Duncan
2007: Spiezio, Eckstein, Taguchi
2008: Ludwick, Kennedy, Duncan
2009: Thurston, Skip, Yadi (with Albert having the lowest LD% of all that qualify)
That’s a lot of slap hitters.
And this is why LD% is next to meaningless
I think this is my new religion! LD% sucks.
I bet most things categorised as “LD” go for singles anyway…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 10, 2010 7:01 AM EST up reply actions
if they were accurately
and uniformly classified, line drives would be where it’s at.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
BR LD% for same players
Albert – 19%
Thurston – 20 %
Holliday – 21%
That seems better. But I’m still skeptical of the stat as a whole.
the awesome thing about thurston's batted ball profile last year is the following:
30% FB
25% IFFB
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
and I'm an idiot
I misinterpreted the stats originally in thinking that IFFB was normalized by balls in play (instead of by fly balls). Though 25% IFFB (infield flies/total flies) is still pretty atrocious.
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you on basically all counts
but when hitting .300 is the entirety of your skill-set, and it makes you an average hitter, there isn’t a lot of room for an off season. Even Ichiro’s batting average has swung thirty or forty points on a season-to-season basis, and I don’t think there’s anyone who’s better at hitting for average than he is.
I like Skip Schumaker, and I think he’ll be fine for two years—I just wanted to think through what makes second base such a high-attrition spot, both for the Cardinals and in general.
Y'know, interestingly. . .
the Birds have done pretty well with their 2B roulette in the TLR era, although there was a pretty healthy drought from 03-08. Put another way, maybe Skippy finally broke the curse of Fernando Vina?
Here’s the rundown:
YR. . . . 2B slash. . . . . 2B career slash
96. . . . Alicea (258/350/383). . . . . . . . 260/346/369
97. . . . DeShields (295/357/448). . . . .268/352/377
98. . . . DeShields (290/371/429). . . . . 268/352/377
99. . . . .McEwing (275/333/398). . . . . . 251/302/355
00. . . . Vina (300/380/398). . . . . . . . . . .282/348/379
01. . . . .Vina (303/357/418). . . . . . . . . . .282/348/379
02. . . . Vina (270/333/338). . . . . . . . . . .282/348/379
03. . . . Hart (277/317/395). . . . . . . . . . . 272/313/385
04. . . . Womack (307/349/385). . . . . . . 273/317/356
05. . . . Grudz (294/334/407). . . . . . . . . . 290/332/395
06. . . . Miles (263/324/347) . . . . . . . . . 281/322/355
07. . . . Kennedy (219/282/290). . . . . . .277/330/391
08. . . . Kennedy (280/321/372). . . . . . .277/330/391
09. . . . Skippy (303/364/393). . . . . . . . . 301/356/399
10. . . . Skippy (424/507/696). . . . . . . . . . 301/356/399
- denotes years where there were several (usually poor-hitting) cooks in the 2B kitchen. In 99, Super Joe split time with Polanco and a 23yo Adam Kennedy. In 2006 Hector Luna was traded mid-season, giving way to the Miles/Fat Belliard platoon of outs. In 2007 and 2008 Kennedy and Miles essentiallly split the 2B starts, mixed in with a handful of Boog.
Before Vina, the Birds actually did a pretty good job of finding keystone sackers on the cheap, wringing a good year out of them, and letting someone else pay for the inevitable decline.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
SBNd
I have no idea why some of those lines are bolded and some aren’t.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
Has to do with your use of asterisks, probably
Remember kids, always preview before you post!
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
Skippy for MVP in 2010?
Your numbers, Doc Brown, seem to indicate this.
That’s one hell of a line considering his .195/.220/.210 line against lefties.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I wondered if anyone would catch that. . .
1. Platoon Skippy
2. Insert Rogers Hornsby’s line from 1924
3. ???
4. Profit!!
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
Vina was quite consistent
wow…the Skipper looks legit looking at it this way
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Here is the problem with that
Batting average is a repeatable skill, absolutely. However, it also takes longer than other skills to identify.
By that I mean a player is more likely to luck into 2-3 .300 seasons than he is to luck into 2-3 30 home run seasons or 80 walk seasons. The reason for that, obviously, is that batting average is effected by (pitchers + umpires + ballpark + fielders), while a stat like BB rate is only effected by (pitchers + umpires). That’s not to say that Skip has been getting lucky, but there is a chance that he has been. Thus we have to regress batting average and BABIP more to the mean than we do other stats.
I like Schu, Grit players like him and Eckstein probably are overrated because of
the one or two games in an important series they come through in the clutch, or do something very cool like switching from outfield to second, but I am happy for us to have secured him for a couple of years at a fair price.
Sentences like these
are why I keep coming back to this site:
It is a long-beloved baseball blogger trope that the sports press overrates white .300 hitters with no power, but I’m convinced that General Managers, even the ones who think they overrate these guys, have subconsciously had a fair understanding of their replaceability for a long time.
You can buy Dee Dee's recipes!
http://205.178.169.55/index.asp?PageAction=VIEWCATS&Category=27
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
The preseason baseball magazine by my toilet
ranks Daniel Descalso as the 3rd best 2nd base prospect in baseball.
thin crop overall obviously, but with another solid season in the minors you gotta think he’s legit.
Milt Thompson FTW!
an honest question which I have no idea how to answer
How many starting MLB 2B were 2B prospects in the minors?
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
That's what folks will be watching.
How will his second go-around in AAA play out for Descalso? He tore up the Texas League while with Springfield (.323/.396/.531/.928) and then was Milesian while with Memphis (.253/.327/.320/.647). His OBP in Memphis was four points higher than his BA with Springfield. If his 2010 AAA numbers are not closer to his ’09 Springfield line than his ’09 Memphis line, then the Schumaker extension looks even better.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I still think he was hurt in Memphis
by a combo of small sample size, adjustment to a new situation, and (perhaps most importantly) not getting that much playing time. They messed him about quite a bit and had him playing 1B and 3B too, I think. I’m still pretty keen on Descalso, personally, but that might be cherry-picking ever so slightly…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 9, 2010 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Agree Monk
not having Hoffpauir around, who could only play second base, should give us a much better read on Descalso this year
It seems the FO is giving him a solid opportunity,
what with getting rid of Hoff, all but making DD the starting second baseman in Memphis.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
very true, monk
it was disheartening to check the memphis boxscores if you are, like myself, a descalso fan.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Last 2 years of Arb?
So this deal buys out his last 2 years?
Curious to see what Floppy eventually gets.
1st and 2nd Arb years
not 2nd & 3rd. This off season was Skippy’s first run at a non league minimum paycheck.
Resurrecting the K-Mac discussion from yesterday.
I apologize if this was brought up yesterday, but I just read this post on Fangraphs about pitchers’ loss of speed on their fastball, which ends with a top 20 list of those who had the biggest drops from ’08 to ’09 and K-Mac made the list with a -1.1 drop. As an aside, Brad Penny made the list of top 20 gains in fastball speed with a 1.6 increase.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Verlander gained, too.
That’s just unfair. Carp gained too, right? I don’t remember him hitting 96 with his 2-seamer until last season.
Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown. - tom s.
With Penny,
I took it to mean that his health was better. As for K-Mac, I wondered if his health was worse.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Love this deal
just because, for unknown reasons, I have a man-crush on Skip
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Look!
Someone we all agree on! Wonder what andi_k thinks?
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
I'm sure she's down with Skip
I’ve never met a female Cards fan that isn’t. As a short “gritty” guy myself, I appreciate this.
Skip is listed at 5'10"
So he’s actually about exactly average height among the general male population. Short for a baseball player, maybe, but still a solid half foot taller than the average American woman.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
me too.
my bf is short and gritty. and now that I think about it, he kind of looks like Skip! hmmm…but he plays shortstop.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
I have a picture
of my buddy (my height, 5’6") interviewing him, and Skip has maybe 2-3 inches on him.
yay for 5'8"!
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Skip has a flaw though, right?
That’s a damn armband tattoo!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Manwich Time
Sounds like you need to meet our DP combo at 2nd base and have a sandwich, oops manwich.
SD
How does Skip measure up
to this guy. Granted he played 10 years and was younger, but he only hit .274/.347/.354 with hit 19 HRs for the Cards.
skip is much better looking
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
can't wait til we get another Tom Herr at 2B
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
That's what I've been sayin'
although, I’m happy with Skip at the moment.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 9, 2010 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Herr is one of my all-time favorites
He seemed like a very smart baseball guy. I am surprised he hasn’t done more in the way of managing or coaching.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
I think he still is managing
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Bench coach for the Lancaster Barnstormers
He was the manager there until 2008. Gotta love Google. And Wikipedia.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 9, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
I *love* the 1987 Topps set with the wood background. Awesome.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Feb 9, 2010 5:55 PM EST up reply actions
Wow.
My memory remembers Herr hitting much more home runs than that……
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
yeah
me too…. he must’ve had a lot of clutch hits
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
iirc, herr had a 100 rbi season
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
memories, too
Altho’ there is stiff competition, (I go all the way back to Don Blasingame) I often think Tom Herr was my all-time favorite Cardinal 2nd baseman. And altho’ a mere embryo, I already have a similar buzz for Skippy.
Among the main differences: Herr was gloriously a switch-hitter, thus making him without question a full-time starter. (no splits vulnerability to content with).
But he also played on teams whose overall constitution was different than what Schu is being asked to do. Whitey’s teams had a bunch of rabbits, wherein speed and daring-do were emphasized. So much so that Herr often hit in the 3 hole (very rare for a true second baseman).
In an odd way of looking at it, Skip may actually be MORE valuable to the team he is playing with than Herr was, because he is being counted on to at least attempt to fill a relative personnel void, namely the lack of high OBP, crafty, top of the order rabbits.
with all due respect
for sure you are quite right. However, I did say “I often think” (re Herr).
Also, in my 50+ years of being a Cardinal fan, the ‘64 bunch (especially the infield) stands apart from all the others [Boyer, Groat, Javier, White]. What I mean is, I try to discount my over the top affection for that group (and, if you will the ’67-’68 that followed) because I know I was a boy then; moreover, the ‘64 pennant team (to say nothing of beating the Stanks in the WS) was my very first taste of post season, and my emotions were a lot higher than in the years that followed.
eg I have learned to stifle the heart-felt truth that Dick Groat meant more to me than Ozzie Smith, and thereby avoid the hoots I would get from 99.9% of other Cards’ fans. And thus, people like Javier often get (seemingly) forgotten. Youth must be served.
I hear you Tewk
we must be about the same age, that is OLD – :) – the ‘64 team was also my first taste of the postseason – still can’t forget the ’64 infield where all 4 were all-star starters, and this in an era where other players (and managers?) were the only voters – but truth be told, I also remember Herr with much fondness
except Schu isn't really high OBP
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, he's almost there
if he can raise his obp a few points this year
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
As I sadi above
keeping him away from lefties altogether should do that. He’s OBPing nearly .390 against righties the last two years. He really never should have to face a lefty.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 9, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
hoping that he will be plattooned with Lugo, but not sure TLR will allow that
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
I think that's what'll happen
it basically did at the end of last year. I think Skip had to take so many PAs (~19% in 2009) against lefties because it was hard to hide him, Colby, Ankiel AND Duncan at the start of the year. We just had too many lefties who sucked against left-handed pitching, so one (or even two of them) always had to start. Once we added Lugo, DeRo and Holliday and dumped Duncan, that problem more or less went away.
I would be fine with Lugo or Greene taking all the PA vs LHP at 2B this year, and I’m guessing that’s the plan. Say what you will about TLR, but he’s pretty keen (generally) on playing the splits; that’s one thing I really like.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 10, 2010 7:06 AM EST up reply actions
I think we all know what to expect from Schu on offense
his defensive value will determine how valuable he is imo…. although I kind of expect his on-base percentage to go up. also, I’d like to see Lugo more at 2B this season to offset Skip’s weakness vs LHP
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 1:12 PM EST reply actions
its interesting to see skip take the extra guaranteed year
over the chance at more money in 2011…and both years are under what he asked for in arby this year, right? that seems like a very good deal for us
This may have been mentioned on here at some point already(been out of the loop the past month or so), but what about signing willy taveras as our 4th outfielder? good centerfield defense, RH so potential platoon if rasmus can’t hit lefties, incredible speed of the bench, and will probably be relatively cheap at ~2M…i know he can’t hit a lick, but he does hit LHP better(.659 OPS over last three years) a lot better than rasmus did last year(.474 OPS, gross)
just a thought
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
I happen to agree
on Taveras, but that doesn’t seem to be the general consensus. I think he could be a fun guy to have around.
If by fun. . .
you mean having reason to leave expletive-laced tirades on the game boards when TLR falls in love with Taveras’ veterany goodness veteranness at the expense of Colby’s playing time when Colby starts the season in a slump, then I’m on board with you.
Otherwise, not so much.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
well, that's not exactly
what I meant by fun… I was thinking more of the running game that could be utilized.
I wonder if that's even allowed under TLR
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
It's allowed...
When we actually have people that can steal bases. The roster hasn’t exactly been laden with speedsters the last few years.
"A slick way to out-figure a person is to get him figuring you figure he's figuring you're figuring he'll figure you aren't really figuring what you want him to figure you figure." ~ Whitey Herzog
this is obligatory. . .
you can’t steal first.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
dropped 3rd strike?
swing at every wild pitch?
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
YES!
(fist-pump)
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Tyler Greene is an elite base-stealer
I’d rather just give him the PAs you’d give to Taveras. He’s definitely got more pop and his OBP% probably can’t be any worse.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 10, 2010 7:07 AM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't mind that actually...
It would be nice to have a fourth outfielder that actually has center-field speed. If not, we get Luddy patrolling center with an anchor strapped to his ass. When Colby needs a day off, of course. He can steal and would be good in pinch running situations. It could work.
"A slick way to out-figure a person is to get him figuring you figure he's figuring you're figuring he'll figure you aren't really figuring what you want him to figure you figure." ~ Whitey Herzog
Jay's a lefty
which kinda hurts his value in that a CF backup would probably have to play vs tough lefties in Colby’s stead. It’s such a shame he can’t hit righty. Maybe Mac can fix him…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 9, 2010 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
True...
Would he really be better than Jay at less cost? Def not swinging the bat. Defensively, who knows. They both have speed, with a slight edge toTaveras probably. Jay is still most likely the better option, given that he doesn’t cost 2M.
"A slick way to out-figure a person is to get him figuring you figure he's figuring you're figuring he'll figure you aren't really figuring what you want him to figure you figure." ~ Whitey Herzog
Fast Willy
Are you sure he would cost $2M. He was released by Oakland, so wouldn’t the team that picks him up only pay the league minimum and Oakland would pay the rest?
I think you may be right...
If that’s the case, pick him up. Hardly any risk.
"A slick way to out-figure a person is to get him figuring you figure he's figuring you're figuring he'll figure you aren't really figuring what you want him to figure you figure." ~ Whitey Herzog
Hardly any risk?
I would say the chance that he gets significant playing time is a pretty big risk.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't see...
How platooning with Colby against lefties, pinch hitting, and pinch running is a big risk.
"A slick way to out-figure a person is to get him figuring you figure he's figuring you're figuring he'll figure you aren't really figuring what you want him to figure you figure." ~ Whitey Herzog
Are we going to get into another
“he sucks” argument? Because this one would tick me off vastly more than picking up Crede.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
The team could use some bench speed, could it not?
"A slick way to out-figure a person is to get him figuring you figure he's figuring you're figuring he'll figure you aren't really figuring what you want him to figure you figure." ~ Whitey Herzog
I would prefer someone who has more than just speed as a skillset
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
As would I...
But I’m still willing to look into picking up anyone who could help out this team’s lack of a pure base-stealer. And he does hit lefties better than Colby. Who would you suggest?
"A slick way to out-figure a person is to get him figuring you figure he's figuring you're figuring he'll figure you aren't really figuring what you want him to figure you figure." ~ Whitey Herzog
I'd rather have nobody steal bases
than have Willy Taveras using up plate appearances on the pretext of his speed. Too many outs, not enough utility for his baserunning.
by DanUpBaby on Feb 9, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Well summed-up
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
I only want someone who would be a plus offensive player
not one who brings nothing more than what we could get from a minor league bat. I feel if we get someone like Willy all that it is going to do is take at bats, or a roster space away from someone like Craig, and Craig has much more of a chance to be an offensive force.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Am I the only one that thinks...
Ludwick should not be playing center? Ever? He runs like he’s stuck in mud. He catches balls he gets to, yeah. In center he’s not going to be able to get to too many.
"A slick way to out-figure a person is to get him figuring you figure he's figuring you're figuring he'll figure you aren't really figuring what you want him to figure you figure." ~ Whitey Herzog
I don't think he should be playing center either
whenever he plays there, I keep thinking he’s going to get hurt, not to mention, he IS NOT A CENTER FIELDER by any stretch of the imagination
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
It seems to me
that Willy offers a few things that in my mind are acceptable from a 4th or 5th outfielder. He’s not a terrible defensive replacement for any of the positions, he can (or at least, has) hit lefties better than Colby, can run, and would be paid 400k. The main argument is that he will take away plate appearances. While this is a concern, won’t any 4th outfielder take away a similar amount from the outfield as a whole? Will the temptation really be there to play him over Colby in situations that he shouldn’t be used? More than anyone else? I know I’m in the minority on this one, but I think it could work out.
other fourth outfielders will take a similar amount
but they’ll suck way less than he does. Taveras’s slugging percentage over the last two years is .291; his OBP .293. He’s simply not an MLB hitter, or even a AAA hitter; we’ve already got one Matt Pagnozzi.
I guess I'm just going to stay stuck
on the years before the last two when he was good or at least showed promise. Could there be something other than just sucking that has made him suck the past two years?
I think the better question. . .
is whether something other than not sucking made him look like he did not suck in 2007.
And the answer is probably Coors Field and a .370 BABIP, with apologies to Ghost of Todd Burns.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
He's definitely been a bit unlucky
but seriously, look at his in-field flyball rate (IFFB%) at Fangraphs the last two years, especially 2009. That’s f’ing horrible.
If you’re making that much pathetic contact (also – see his HR/FB rate) and can barely muscle the ball out of the infield, you’ve got to think a low BABIP probably isn’t unlucky, it’s just over-matched.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 10, 2010 7:20 AM EST up reply actions
Look at how many ABs
Mike Gallego took in his days with the Cards and get back with me. He also had the range of a fire hydrant in the field.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
if you are on the bench
hopefully you would be a capable pinch-hitter, as that is your primary role, imo, in most cases.
taveras cannot hit, and would probably only be worse in a pinch-hitting role. i’d rather send waino up than fast willy.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
That list doesn't exactly inspire confidence...
In our ability (or lack thereof) to steal bases. Colby, fine. Boog gets picked off and never looks comfortable/confident getting a read off the pitcher. He mostly just dances around. Greene, who’s to say he’d be on base more often than Taveras? Jay, I don’t really know enough about to comment on, but he did have 20 steals last year in AAA. Which leads me to believe he’d be OK. All I know is #5 better not lead the team in stolen bases again. That’s ridiculous.
"A slick way to out-figure a person is to get him figuring you figure he's figuring you're figuring he'll figure you aren't really figuring what you want him to figure you figure." ~ Whitey Herzog
why does it matter
if it doesn’t keep the offense from scoring runs?
Willy Taveras has one skill—he runs the bases well. At least if Tyler Greene were the designated pinch-runner-who-can’t-hit-very-well he might run into a few home runs, and he has the additional benefit of playing an excellent shortstop.
I don't think that...
Willy Taveras has to be the 4th outfielder. Or that he’s even good. I just think we need an actual backup center fielder (that plays center field). If it’s someone with speed, even better. I don’t want Ludwick running around there looking lost, not running fast enough, and getting hurt. Speed on the basepaths is important and shouldn’t be so easily overlooked. It keeps the offense out of double-plays, puts added pressure on the defense and their pitcher. Whoever is covering second has to stay closer to the bag. This offense goes through spells where they can’t plate runs. Our lack of a running game has something to do with this. That’s all I’m trying to say here.
"A slick way to out-figure a person is to get him figuring you figure he's figuring you're figuring he'll figure you aren't really figuring what you want him to figure you figure." ~ Whitey Herzog
But I’m still willing to look into picking up anyone who could help out this team’s lack of a pure base-stealer.
In that case, you’re really going to want to root for Tyler Greene to make the team next year. He is an elite baserunner. He had something like a 90% steal success rate in memphis last year (and he went 3:0 SB:CS in St Louis…).
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 10, 2010 7:08 AM EST up reply actions
baserunning speed is like a wicked arm in the outfield.
it’s nice to have, but i’d never go out and get somebody for whom that is his only skill.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
We're looking at you, Royals.
Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown. - tom s.
by spants on Feb 9, 2010 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
To be fair
The Royals have demonstrated a level of intelligence that indicates you should probably repeat things several times when speaking to them.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
by mojowo11 on Feb 9, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions 11 recs
I went through the trouble of logging in so I could give this a 6th rec.
"And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who would attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And you will know my name is ALBERT when I lay my vengeance upon thee." -The Bible
I wouldn't pay $2m for Taveras
I’m not sure I’d want him at all if he takes ABs away from Colby, but he’s not worthless, as you state. He looks a bit unlucky on BABIP the last two years, but saying that, he’s got a horrendous IFFB rate (i.e. free outs). I think having to watch him all year would drive me mad, I’d think Shane Robinson would have a fair chance at doing much the same job, if we just need an occasional RH PA in CF and a speedster on the bases…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 9, 2010 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
I forgot about Robinson...
He is fast as hell and pretty good defender. Should at least be able to strike the ball as well as Taveras, right? Hopefully.
"A slick way to out-figure a person is to get him figuring you figure he's figuring you're figuring he'll figure you aren't really figuring what you want him to figure you figure." ~ Whitey Herzog
i too forgot about robinson
i’d rather have him than taveras
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
couldn't do a hell of a lot worse
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Schu's contract
has, as I understand it, $300,000 of incentive money included for 2011, which he gets at based on plate appearance, described as “reachable” – so the second year of the deal will probably be $3 m.
and both years are under what he asked for in arby this year, right?
Well, sure, but over what the Cards’ offered.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
true
butyou’d expect the second year to be a raise
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
i think
we have better internal options than taveras
and don’t forget ramus’ ~.180 BABIP v. LHPs last year
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
anybody following the bonnaroo line up unveiling today?
lots of intriguing acts already announced. and with paul simon, stevie wonder, dave matthews band and more set to be announced too i for one think i’m going to have to forgo a few cardinals games and head on down to manchester, tennessee.
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
Resident malcontented betamale
wow
GWAR!!!
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
see i'd never see a band like gwar regularly
but i would be all for it if i was there.
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
Resident malcontented betamale
by slu on Feb 9, 2010 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
steve martin could be good
at least it would be funny
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
he's actually a pretty dang good banjo player.
we got the cd for christmas and its quite nice to listen to.
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
Resident malcontented betamale
by slu on Feb 9, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
sort of intrigued by the flaming lips playing dark side of the moon
but I always think those big fests are overpriced
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
they apparently made an album of it, which was panned
but really no cover album is going to be satisfactory….live at midnight i think it would be awesome.
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
Resident malcontented betamale
by slu on Feb 9, 2010 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
I think they are better live anyway. plus Pink Floyd ain’t easy to cover
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
btw
if you like Pink Floyd, and want to hear a song inspired by them, check out “Acid Rain” by Grails
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
It's really not too bad...
When you think about the facts. It’s for all 4 days. That’s alot of perfomances. The crowds all always jacked up at festivals. The bands will do things you won’t see anywhere else, like people from other bands jumpin in and play a few songs with them. Plus, it includes your campsite too. $260 is less than $70 per day. Cheaper than Lolla per day. But, like usual, I will still probably end up choosing Lolla. I’m underwhelmed by the bands as of this point,
"A slick way to out-figure a person is to get him figuring you figure he's figuring you're figuring he'll figure you aren't really figuring what you want him to figure you figure." ~ Whitey Herzog
me too
not too excited by the lineup. pitchfork can be good sometimes, and is a lot cheaper. but so far, nothing on the lineup has intrigued me. but lately I have been seeing the best bands at bars for like $5-$10
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
The only bands I have any interest in seeing in that lineup...
The Black Keys, DMB (although I’ve never been a huge Dave fan), Phoenix, Flaming Lips… Not enough to entice me to go. OK Go aren’t terrible either. I’m not excited by anyone though is the problem.
"A slick way to out-figure a person is to get him figuring you figure he's figuring you're figuring he'll figure you aren't really figuring what you want him to figure you figure." ~ Whitey Herzog
It's getting better..
Rise Against and Kings of Leon were added. Another headliner or two and I could be down for going.
"A slick way to out-figure a person is to get him figuring you figure he's figuring you're figuring he'll figure you aren't really figuring what you want him to figure you figure." ~ Whitey Herzog
Great Bands
I saw KoL last fall and they were awesome and want to catch Rise Against when they come by DC next
I'm not really sure the whole of DSOTM needed covering, really...
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 10, 2010 7:25 AM EST up reply actions
Time for some Skippeh 2009 defensive highlights
Diving stab
Turning two against the Chubbies
Needs to work on the glove flip…
Another nice play up the middle
I was an OF, remember?
Knock it down, Skip
To his left…
Definition of pickin’ it
Sorianpwned
Little man has hops
Can’t. Wait. For. Baseball.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
by mojowo11 on Feb 9, 2010 2:00 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
count me in
on the Skippy regular crush crew. I can’t help but root for him. These were enjoyable! Thanks.
mel
Sweet.
Thanks, I needed a little ray of hope on this crappy, cold, snowy day.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 9, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Only one?
Am I the only one that thinks Schumaker could actually become an above average defensive second baseman?
oh, I definitely think he could
but it’s too early to say
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
he's got a great arm and he turns the double play well,
but I can’t imagine he’ll improve that much from season to season. He couldn’t, after all, become an above-average center fielder, no matter how hard he worked.
yeah
but second base requires a different skillset, he won’t be required to run or have speed to nearly the same extent as a center fielder. it will depend on if his reaction time has adjusted with more experience playing at second.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
I still say we should play Albert there
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Aren't we doing that already?
he just happens to be playing first at the same time
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
Center Field
I feel like his skillset plays much better at second base. I’ll grab onto his aforementioned arm. It was at best average and probably a bit below average in the outfield but it’s way above average at second base. His speed (as it applies to ability to cover ground) wasn’t good enough to play centerfield but again as a second baseman it’s great. We’ve yet to see how his lateral range is in a decent sample set but with SSS I think it looks pretty good. I think he will be a good second baseman.
by WizardofOz1982 on Feb 9, 2010 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
Good deal for the Birds
Skip wil hit .300/.360/.400 and be an average defender at second. In this market, $4.6M seems a good deal.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
Ode to Skip Schumaker
There once was a player named Schu
Who moved from Center to Two
His defense is decent,
His hitting consistent,
But his value is in the man stew.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
by IHeartBoog on Feb 9, 2010 3:57 PM EST reply actions 11 recs
Amazing
It might not be your best but it’s clawing at the heels of whichever one is number one.
by WizardofOz1982 on Feb 9, 2010 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
thanks.
I think Ode to Jason Marquis is still my favorite.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
Wow.
I have never read that before. It is truly awesome. I bow in your presence.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 9, 2010 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't remember that one.
I agree. Very nice.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 9, 2010 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
thanks Spants.
i think the “man stew” adds a little something extra.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
beefcake?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
and that was the first i saw of the marquis one
that was good – i can’t really decide between it and schu. but i do think i know the reason they didn’t let him pitch during that.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
run in the outfield
skip schumaker or cobbler
a hitter 2B
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
dirt on the uni
average hitter, who cares?
grit makes the manstew
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 9, 2010 4:48 PM EST reply actions
Is that kind of like the Triple Crown of saber blogging?
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 9, 2010 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Imagine the reaction to a Penny f/x.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
by RiverRat on Feb 9, 2010 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Why bother speculating about the impossible?
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
I'd be pretty happy with those.
Seems kind of surprising they have the Phillies behind the Braves though, and at only 89 wins. To listen to the national baseball shows, you’d think the Yankees and Phillies were both going to win 158 games this year.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 9, 2010 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
some big swings between PECOTA and CHONE
per Las Vegas, PECOTA is the worst projection system and CAIRO is the best
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 9, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
The AL west
must be completely screwing with every projection system out there.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
I will be very surprised if the mariners finish in last place!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 9, 2010 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
The CAIRO projection is almost
a complete flip flop of CHONE & PECOTA.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
love the massive tie scenario
One-game playoff in the NL west, then one game playoff for wild card?
Or would it be a one-game playoff for the West, with the phillies in by default because the loser of the 1-game playoff in the west will be 85-78 (after 163 games) instead of 85-77?
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
Damn...CHONE really hates the Phillies.
Specifically, it really hates their offense and bullpen. Pretty bullish on their starters, FWIW.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I can understand the bullpen
Maybe CHONE thinks Pedro Feliz is the second coming of Jesus?
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
No
They just anticipate their entire outfield being average, when they were all above average last year. It just seems like a bit of a stretch to me that they’ll ALL be that bad. Ibanez I could understand, but Werth and the Flying Hawaiian are entering a prime season, so projecting them to regress towards league average next year is interesting.
Polanco has a better projection than Feliz does, and they have Rollins regressing to the mean off of his awful season last year.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
So they see pretty much a worst case scenario for that offense.
Intriguing.
Still don’t get the Polanco signing anyway.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
I really liked the Polanco signing
though If Floppy signs for less, I think it’ll look less good in retrospect. I think Polanco would’ve made sense for us at that price, though I’m less sure about the 3-year aspect.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 11, 2010 4:44 AM EST up reply actions
I liked the idea
but they gave a year too many and 1-2 mill extra a year too many. The next closest offer was 2/10. It made no sense to offer that much for a guy on the decline, who isn’t even a guarantee to play 3b well.
Don’t understand why they wouldn’t have just made the plunge for Beltre instead. Guaranteed good defense, and at the deal he got, it would have been fantastic for them.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
Except Beltre (from all accounts) gave Boston a healthy discount in order to play there
and, tbh, I don’t blame him – the fans, the history, the success of the current team (although I admit Phillie has that too) and the general niceness of the city makes Boston a far more appealling destination, I’d have thought.
I kinda agree that Polanco’s probably not a huge upgrade over Feliz, and, at the price they paid, I can see your argument. That said, Polanco, despite his age, has been fantastically consistent AND productive in Detroit, and, although year 3 (when he’s 37) he’s likely to be maybe as good as Feliz now (if not worse), they’re only paying $6m/yr for a guy who’s been a pretty consistent 3-win player.
If you look at Polanco’s peripherals the last couple of years, there’s really no signs of an impending decline anywhere – his K/BB rate has remained steady, he still makes above-average contact in all areas (league average contact % on a swing is around 80% – Polanco still makes 92, 93% contact on his swings, which is his best skill), and he isn’t swinging at more out-of-zone pitches than he did when he was younger, which shows his judgement is still steady.
Add to that the fact that he is, by all accounts, an excellent fielder – +10 runs/150 at 2B and 3B for his career, and last 3 years he’s been around that mark too, so it’s not as if he’s on a downslide. Just 10 errors over 2 seasons in Detroit at 2B, which is good for a guy who (according to UZR) has above-average range.
He’s a good bet to decline, yes, but he’s moving to a weaker league, and even if he only has 1-2 years of his current production (and you basically call him a replacement-level player in his age 37 year), he’s well worth that contract. He’d have to basically fall off a cliff to not be worth it, and, as I think I showed above, he’s pretty much shown no signs whatsoever of any sort of decline so far. Most projection systems peg him as a 3-win player next year, and I find it hard to believe he’ll be much worse than average over the course of that deal.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 12, 2010 10:05 AM EST up reply actions
I can't believe that Beltre would not give Philly a discount personally
Boston won’t even win their own division at this point. Philly is all but guaranteed for the playoffs (The Marlins may say something about it though). He would play every day, and hit in a lineup that seems mroe stable that Boston’s. By that, I mean that they haven’t lost anyone major from the lineup, as Boston has from Jason Bay, who lead the team in RBI’s and HR’s. The NL, in itself, is going to be a much easier road to the championship for the Phillies than the AL for the Sox.
The problem with getting Polanco is that you are taking an unnecessary risk in assuming he will do well in 3b. When was the last time he played it consistently? I mean, UZR says otherwise about his defense, but you never know when adjusting to a new position. By grabbing Beltre, you at least have that guarantee. Now, you may not get the guaranteed offense, but you at least get the guaranteed defense, and not to mention all the signs of the ballpark, injuries, and bad lineup to hit in.
I guess there’s 2 sides of the coin here. Polanco might be the safer option of the two, for all the reasons you stated, but Beltre has much more upside that Polanco, and would absolutely thrive in a bandbox that small.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
Is anyone else tired of talking about baseball?
I know pitchers and catchers report so soon. I just can’t wait any longer.
This may sound weird
But I’m looking forward to the P-D’s photography from Spring Training. It always give me such joy to see the shots of the guys out there stretching, playing catching, taking batting practice, and screwing around.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
You are incorrigible
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
I'm with you.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Feb 10, 2010 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
Probably both, but that wouldn't fit the demure facade.
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
Is incorrigible the same as feisty?
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Feb 10, 2010 12:21 AM EST up reply actions
Then both.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Feb 10, 2010 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
I thought your were chasing Grady
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
Wow unnecessary consonant
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
don't you wish there were an edit function?!
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 10, 2010 12:32 AM EST up reply actions
On sum level I wud
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
He is far too old.
And I am not chasing anyone.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Feb 10, 2010 12:29 AM EST up reply actions
27 is far too old?
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
At 27 I would never
have dated a twenty year old, not unless she was remarkable in every way
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
I had a chance to date this really hot Brazillian guy
when I was 20 and he was 27. I turned him down. STUPID SPANTS. But I was 20.
Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown. - tom s.
How hot could he have been, I mean he was OLD!!!
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
To be clear:
Grady is very hot but at 20 7 years seems like a lot.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Feb 10, 2010 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
I always believed that
I should only be willing to go as far up in age as I would be willing to go downward, so at twenty a thirteen yearold was off limits and as a result 27 as well
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
i'd go down
in age considerably further than up
not that i’d go that far down. i’d probably date someone as young as 20, but probably not more than a couple years older than me
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
the TWSS only works here if you collapse the comment
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
It is but the best thing about making rules is you get the break them
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
re: this entire subthread
I always wondered how there were always 300 more comments when I wake up the next day
by brackenthebox on Feb 10, 2010 12:52 AM EST up reply actions
Seriously.
I think we behaved ourselves pretty well this time.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
A coupel of days ago we actually had a baseball discussion@
by vivaelpujols on Feb 10, 2010 1:40 AM EST up reply actions
Too old for me.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Feb 10, 2010 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
only in the sense of
tired of talking about instead of watching
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
off to the saints parade
of course i’m only going to see the budweiser clydesdales and think cardinal baseball.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Hey, we drafted this kid in the 13th round
He has a bright future I tell you.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
reply fail :P
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
Hey guys!
I’ve been gone a while. Just heard we re-signed Matt Holliday. Seems pretty sweet! What do you guys think?
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
Trying again
That’s great news! Now Allen Craig will get a fair shot at the third base job!
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
Hey guys, heard we won the World Series!
That Eckstein kid is gritty.
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
The bad news is
that I heard Stan Musial retired.
by StanTheManFan on Feb 9, 2010 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
I had a lot of caffeine this afternoon
it seemed funny at the time
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
Hey, we drafted this kid in the 13th round
He has a bright future I tell you.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
Well that was a SBN'd to top all SBN'd's
Did anyone else have everything un-Z’d ? And on top of that it would let me Z down about half the page and then send me back up to the top again, and un-Z everything yet again.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Not this time, bub?
Failed Arrested Development reference due to “drunk” preceding “high”…
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
just sort and the read off the middle (or average of two middle for odd numbers)
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 9:27 PM EST up reply actions
personally, I get stuff out of sql and into perl as fast as possible for something like this
something along these lines
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
sorry I can't be of more help
I know enough SQL to get data out, and not much more. Someday I’m sure that’ll catch up on me.
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
CTRL+F "median"
http://dev.mysql.com/doc/refman/5.0/en/group-by-functions.html
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
all the discussion in that thread
makes me happy with my decision to use perl
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 9:56 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah I would use PHP right here
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Feb 9, 2010 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
JD I NEED MORE HELP!
I’m joining two tables: ave and time
ave... pitcher, avg(time) AS time time... pitch_id, ,pitcher, time
ave has like 600 rows and time has like 400,000 rows. Here is my query:
CREATE TABLE ntime AS SELECT t.pitch_id, (t.time - a.time) AS time FROM time t JOIN ave a ON a.pitcher = t.pitcher
Would this work? If I join a.pitcher ON t.pitcher, would that duplicate the a.time for each matching row in time?
Am I making sense at all??!?
by vivaelpujols on Feb 9, 2010 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
It would
Try this:
SELECT t.pitch_id, (t.time-a.time) AS time FROM time t, ave a WHERE a.pitcher=t.pitcher
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Feb 9, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
Is that actually different than join?
Whatever, I’m doing it!
by vivaelpujols on Feb 9, 2010 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
I think it's a more elegant way of joining than the way you were using
I always use
SELECT FROM WHERE
Then fill out the rest as needed. Sometimes you don’t need a WHERE statement. I’ve never once had to use the JOIN statement for a join.
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Feb 9, 2010 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
Well, it worked
So I’m gonna go do the JD way for now on.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 9, 2010 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
I really need to get better tech skills
Bracken, how the hell did you learn all of the shit you know?
by vivaelpujols on Feb 9, 2010 9:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He's a witch.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Feb 9, 2010 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
defending in April
real world, here I come
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
necessity is a bitch
my lab’s codebase is mostly in perl, so I learned by trying to decipher it
my thesis is basically a statistics project (for some inexplicably reason given that I’m in a computational chemistry lab)
for the record, I’d recommend python over perl if your learning a scripting language. And based on the above, you might be better off asking JD’s advice anyway.
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
I was listening to Bernie and Goold on the radio earlier today
He said something that made my heart skip a beat. TLR is interested in signing Willy Taveras
don't fucking scare me like that flim
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
/sigh
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
What are some Cardinal children names besides AJ and Rylee?
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Jared Michael (Clemsongirl)?
Good full name for you.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
I have had no children with anyone, how does this child have the last name ClemsonGirl?
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Meh, just cuz.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
damn, guys
radiohead is so shitting good. not many bands that i can say that i’ve been able to enjoy on such a level for such a long period of time. still blows me away all these years later. just with greater moderation
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
definitely the best
“my first radiohead”
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 10, 2010 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
Studio Kid A for me
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
definitely the best
definitely not the best starting point
kinda like young and tonight’s the night
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 10, 2010 12:48 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe Pablo Honey
to start with, it always helps that the major airplay hit eases a listener into the experience
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
god no
maybe the bends based on what kind of music he likes
but definitely not pablo honey
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I tend to like the first effort of
most bands. I am not saying that Pablo Honey is anywhere near their best stuff but I like the proximity to anonymity and the energy it brings.
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
JEEZE PILE IT ON!!!!
fine fuck pablo honey and it’s clever sampling of one of the greatest prank calls in history. Everyone should hate the album as much as Radiohead no doubt does.
(Too Much?)
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
Just go buy some Flaming Lips instead
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
my favorite albums are Kid A and Hail to the Thief
Kid A is their most consistent album imo, and Hail to the Thief has a lot of my favorite songs on it (Sail Me To the Moon, Drunken Punchup at a Wedding, Wolf At The Door)
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 10, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
Yes. Yes they are.
It blows me away that they’re still putting out amazing music. Most other bands of their generation have sunk into irrelevance or self-parody.
by mattisnotfrench on Feb 10, 2010 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
How dare you Green Day won a Grammy this year!!!!
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
and why is A Grammy but AN Emmy, or AN Oscar
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
Do you mean why do they use different articles (a and an)?
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
yeah I weep for English as a second language student's frustration
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
I'm not completly sure, but it probably has to do the fact that grammy has a hard G sound
where the “o” in oscar and the “e” in emmy are softer.
you serious?
it because an comes before a vowel sound and a before a consonant sound
this is first grade stuff, guys
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I think TomCat mentioned once he isn't a Native speaker.
Cody made me lose hope in our schools.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
No supposedly I am
I just went to a crappy public school where my ability to BS and read at a college level let my basic education slide. I went to a Catholic Middle/High School where they did their best to repair the damage. Even to this day I find myself making very basic mistakes, like pronouncing the c in facade with a hard sound.
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
by TomCat009 on Feb 10, 2010 1:18 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
the funny thing is I
would use Facade and Fackade interchangeably and even after some Spanish and French it never crossed my mind.
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
except when it comes to "historical"
which every damn news anchor in the country wants to precede with “an” for some unknown reason
/pet_peeve
by brackenthebox on Feb 10, 2010 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
that's what you get for watching damn news anchors!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
because it starts with a vowel sound
just like you would say “an herb” instead of “a herb”
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I say historical. Like hers. With the "hard" h sound.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
It's because the accent lies on a syllable...
…which doesn’t include the “h”.
a hiccup – HIC-cup
an historical occasion – his-TOR-i-cal
Ultimately, it’s a matter of preference, though.
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
Yeah if you say it like that it's fine.
But the newscasters don’t.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
seriously?
you don’t pronounce the ‘h’ in historical?
An herb, an hour, a history lesson
by brackenthebox on Feb 10, 2010 1:19 AM EST up reply actions
only when you're not going to use a/an
“a historical” just sound awful to me. i would say “an historical” and just barely pronounce the ‘h’
it’s sounds better in “a history lesson” because you emphasize a different syllable than in “historical”
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I can see that.
But the way the newscasters I’ve heard say historical they should definitely use a.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
agreed
there can be peace between prophetjohn and myself once again
by brackenthebox on Feb 10, 2010 1:29 AM EST up reply actions
or if you are
a cockney “fancy an ’istory lesson, luv?”
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
Not in Merica it doesn't keep that `Erb stuff on your side of the ocean
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
You should pronounce the "h" in herb
unless you’re some sort of backwards savage.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 10, 2010 7:36 AM EST up reply actions
Well because you can't put a before a word that starts with a vowel.
Like in French. Le/la and then l’. (Le chien and l’oreille) You use l’ before a word that starts in a vowel. It flows better. Say A Oscar and then An Oscar out loud. An Oscar flows much better and is much easier to say.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
the preterite past tense
of “vamos” is “fueron”
i have little sympahy for learners of english
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
actually
i wasn’t too hot on in rainbows. more talking about how as much as i’ve listened to the earlier albums, i still enjoy them
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I think there were like 2 really good songs on in rainbows
other than that, I was just impressed by how it was recorded than anything else
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 10, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
radiohead recently flew to california and did some recording for about 2 weeks
probably means new album this year
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 10, 2010 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
I. Hate. Radiohead.
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
by vexedtechie on Feb 10, 2010 2:57 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Scott Tenorman now agrees with you
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
holy crap
it is snowing like crazy here
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 10, 2010 12:19 AM EST reply actions
damn yankees
(i can see how this will be confusing on a baseball blog)
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 10, 2010 12:33 AM EST up reply actions
It looks like GDM just found a new career path
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
Dierkes is saying that the Astros are in front to sign Taveras
Heard a singer on the radio late last night
He says he's gonna kick the darkness
'til it bleeds daylight
excellent
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 10, 2010 12:42 AM EST up reply actions
don't be screwing with us TC
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Go E-Wade! Go E-Wade!
It’s your birthday!
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 10, 2010 7:38 AM EST up reply actions
This comment is funnier with a British accent
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Feb 10, 2010 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
no his offense + defense will be so bad that it negates his position
by vivaelpujols on Feb 10, 2010 1:43 AM EST up reply actions
Sadly Tony will give gim about 300 abs this year with plenty of starts at SS and 2B
when T. Greene is a better choice.
as long as skip is always sitting against lefties, it's at least a step in the right direction
by brackenthebox on Feb 10, 2010 1:49 AM EST up reply actions
Skips's splits vs. LHp wasn't too bad in the minors
maybe he didn’t focus on it enough last year with the new position.
It's only a few hundred PAs and maybe he's still adjusting
but he’s been awful against LH throughout his major league career. The .240 wOBA in 2009 looks downright awesome next to the .203 from ’08.
by brackenthebox on Feb 10, 2010 1:57 AM EST up reply actions
Platoon splits take a long, long time to mean much
by vivaelpujols on Feb 10, 2010 2:02 AM EST up reply actions
I'll trust you on that, but why is that the case?
Don’t most players have some split at the end of their career? I’d think that’d improve the convergence.
by brackenthebox on Feb 10, 2010 2:04 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not neccesarily saying that splits aren't a real thing
But it’s just really hard to identify them from the data. It’s like BABIP. A player could have a pretty extreme platoon split over 2-3 seasons, and his “true” platoon split may only be minor. Also, platoon splits tend to converge as a player’s career progresses, as you learn to adapt to whatever problems you are having with the same handed pitchers.
The Book found that for a lefty-lefty platoon, after 1000 plate appearances for the hitter, you would regress 50%.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/fangraphs_now_has_some_splits_data/#comments
Schumaker is at about 300 PA against lefties, so you would regress a lot.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 10, 2010 2:13 AM EST up reply actions
so that says how to regress the split itself
that seems a bit of a round about way of getting at what I really care about, which is how bad is Skip against lefties, independent of his performance against righties.
I understand that we have less than half a season’s worth of PAs for Skip against lefties. My question is if those PAs are worth less statistically (i.e. need to be regressed more) than the same number of PAs against a typical distribution of LH/RH pitchers.
by brackenthebox on Feb 10, 2010 2:21 AM EST up reply actions
So you're asking if
Skip’s 300 plate appearances against lefties are of the same significance as 300 plate appearances against both righties and lefties?
That’s a good question, let me try to dig that up for you. My first thought is that they are less significant, but I don’t know.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 10, 2010 2:29 AM EST up reply actions
Let's see
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/when-samples-become-reliable/
OPS becomes 70% reliable (meaning you’d regress 30% of a players plate appearances to league average performance) at 550 PA. Lefty-lefty platoons become 50% reliable at 1000 plate appearances, so they are much less significant than normal stats. I wonder why that is.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 10, 2010 2:33 AM EST up reply actions
Where is the working for all this?
For instance, in the ITB post you linked above, tango says:
Andy said that for LHH, that you would regress the observed split (110 points in this case) 50% toward the mean if you had 1000 PA against LHP.
Where does that come from and what methodology is used to determine it?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 10, 2010 7:47 AM EST up reply actions
It comes from The Book
Using empirical data. I’m not exactly sure the method, as I don’t have The Book with me, but I have faith in it.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 10, 2010 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
from reading the second link
it looks like 550 PAs is the point at which (for OPS), two randomly chosen halves of samples agree to the tune of a .70 correlation (unclear to me if that’s R, R^2, or some other stat). I personally don’t see the direct connection between the correlation and how much one regresses, but perhaps that is standard practice in this area.
As for the post you mentioned, I would assume it means the following: if you have 1000 PA of split data and you want to estimate a players performance over another set of N PAs (N=1000?), the best estimator is to weight the observed split over the first 1000 PAs and the league average split equally (i.e. take the straight average of the two values). Presumably that weighting is fit according to historical data, so maybe you’re asking what the scope of that historical data is?
If this is all rehashing obvious stuff (or if my conjecture is just wrong) I apologize, but I haven’t done nearly as much reading up on this stuff as I probably should have.
by brackenthebox on Feb 10, 2010 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
I think I'm in the same boat.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 10, 2010 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
So far behind...
…on my VEB reading! sigh
Anyway. Great read, DanUp. You’re are quite the skilled writer and I always enjoy your thoughtful insight.
Also, props to the VEB web admin(s). This site is top-notch.
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