Schumaker Gets New Contract
by JWO on Feb 8, 2010 8:51 PM EST
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PrintJust caught the story on ESPN. Looks like the Cardinals have locked up Skippy for the next two years, at what (I think) is a reasonable rate. Any thoughts on this? Frankly, I'm very satisfied. It gives us some stability at a position that has become the "Defense Against the Dark Arts" in terms of longevity. Deal is:
2010: $2M
2011: $2.75M
A few hundred K in incentives over this time period.
Thoughts?
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Good.
I couldn’t stand him as an outfielder. But he won me over as a 2b. Unless he suddenly gets worse (which I guess is possible, that happened to Mickey Stanley, though he did play a tougher position) seems like a good deal.
i guess it's alright
mlbtr says that his 2nd year is $2.7M with incentives to bring it up to $3MM.
he’s worth it, but i think even that $3MM will be hard to afford in ’11
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Interesting discussion here...
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2010/1/18/1256015/where-those-last-dollars-go#29053096.
I’d say people were pretty accurate overall. This saves a good $1-2 million in 2011 when funds will be very tight. If Skip had had a decent 2010, he’d be in line for $4 million plus and we’d be thinking about non-tendering him or trading him a la Matt Capps. This keeps him around, or at least makes him tradeable.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
Adds value to him from the
teams side if they want to trade him, and Skip gets a nice guarantee. Win win.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
I don't really get it...
from Skip’s side… He would’ve gotten around $2 million or slightly more if he had gone to arbitration, and, if he repeated 2010 in 2011, he’d be in line for about $4 million… If he were non-tendered in 2011, as we’ve seen with Capps and others this year, he’d probably be signed by someone else at or slightly below his $4 million arb number.
I think he’s insuring against a total meltdown season where he gets non-tendered and then signed for a mill or for a minor league deal. I don’t see that happening, but I suppose it’s good to insure against unlikely events.
Win for Mo.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
Guaranteed money for Skip, who only has one year of experiences has a 2Bman.
Not too shabby for him, either.
Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown. - tom s.
Yeah, I think it's basically insurance
also, I thought arby deals usually went 40%/60%/80% of free-agent value, so if he got $2m in arby this year, with a so-so year he’d expect not much more than $3m next year. I thought he might’ve gotten a bit more than $2m this year, though.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 9, 2010 6:43 AM EST up reply actions
If someone offered me the chance to be able to live the good life
for ever more, I think I’d take it. Skip has no way to know if he is good enough to stick yet — if he hits .260 and plays avg defense he would be non-tendered. He’s basically locking down a nice future with the upside that he gets a nice 2-3 year deal for $10 million when this deal expires as long as he keeps doing what he is doing now.
Just win
I like it
fills a spot on the (relatively) cheap until Descalso is ready. I think his defense will improve and he’ll end up being around a 2 WAR player this season, so this is a pretty decent deal from the organization’s perspective. That being said, if he’s going to stick at lead-off I really wish he’d raise that BB% a few ticks. Then again, I think pitchers are pretty reluctant to walk him in front of Albert, so Skip gets pitches to hit…he’s just not that all that good at hitting them.
unless they’re right down the middle I guess
he's pretty consistently
a .360 OBP guy. that’s pretty satisfying to me
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
eh, no. It's not bad
But bleacher report had him ranked as 22nd out of 30 leadoff hitters. Now, I don’t agree wholeheartedly with their methodology, but the clear trend is that most of of the really good ones have their BB% above 10. All I’m saying is that there is a lot of room for improvement, and I don’t really see that coming in the form of substantially improved hitting, so walk rate is where he make the biggest strides.
BB% is all well and fine
but all i care about is getting on base
that article even states as much that OBP is the most important, yet #22 on the list gets on base better than #s 1, 3, 6, 7, etc
that list is pretty trash tbh. morgan, lewis andbourn ahead of (are you shitting me?) jeter, floppy, figgins, upton, reyes, weeks, sizemore, rollins
i mean…you sure this isn’t a joke?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
well yeah
when i said i didn’t agree wholeheartedly with the methodology I was referring particularly to giving way too much weight to pitches per plate appearance. But then I just noticed it seems to be evaluating stats for only March/April of 2009. So yeah, SSS is skewing it. But the trend is still there. Or just take the “elite” leadoff hitters you just mentioned. Every one of them (excluding Jimmy Rollins’ atrociousness last year and Weeks) had a BB% above 10.
Like the prophet says
only OBP% matters. Why should we be more keen on a guy who racks up the walks instead of the singles? People say that “BB% is less variable than BABIP” but I’m not sure that’s a valid argument that makes a high BB%, low BA guy “better”. It just makes him less prone to wild swings in OBP, which could be bad OR, indeed, a GOOD thing for the team (if he runs a high BABIP).
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 9, 2010 6:46 AM EST up reply actions
Here's why Felonius
If you have two players with a .400 OBP, one guy has a .350 BABIP and a 8% walk rate, the other guy has a .300 BABIP and a 16% walk rate. The second guy is better going forward, because it’s more likely that the .350 BABIP guy got lucky than did the .300 guy.
my point was
that ceteris paribus, .300/.360 isn’t any less valuable than .270/.360
i guess you could argue that the former is actually slightly more valuable, because it’s much more likely that a run is driven in by a hit than a walk
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
also, around a quarter of those hits are for extra bases
which is always more valuable than a walk.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
I assumed we were talking about players with equal slugging?
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2010 9:26 PM EST up reply actions
that's unrealistic, though
if you hold slg constant and increase BABIP, you artificially reduce the number of extra base hits and add another uncontrolled variable to the thought experiment.
IE you’d no longer be comparing a high-BABIP, low-ISOp player with a low-BABIP high-ISOp player, and instead comparing a high-BABIP, lower-ISO, low-BB% player with a low-BABIP, higher-ISO, higher-BB% player.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
ISOp = isolated patience = (OBP-BA) ~ BB%
ISO = (SLG-BA)
sorry i wasn’t consistent throughout.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
or..............
IsoP = Isolated Power (SLG-BA)
IsoD = Isolated Discipline (OBP-BA)
ISOp as patience is confusing. most automatically associate the “p” for power, due to familiarity.
ISO alone just doesn’t distinguish. reads clearer using P & D, imo.
by ball in play on Feb 17, 2010 9:13 AM EST up reply actions
Dude I don't really care about all of thise
I just use wOBA.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 14, 2010 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
True, yes, but I was assuming two guys with identical BABIP
Not one guy who got lucky and one guy who didn’t. As far as I can see, one of the big arguments against BA-heavy guys is that they can have a horrible season of OBP if they get unlucky on balls in play; I was realy just making the point that the converse is also true – if a guy like Carl Crawford gets lucky with BABIP he can put up a really huge OBP in a season, just as easily. High variance, per se, is not necessarily a detrimental thing.
Also, regarding your point, context matters; if the .300 BABIP guy with the 16% walkrate was Yadi Molina, chances are he actually got lucky with that BABIP. If the .350 guy was someone like Carl Crawford, yeah, he got lucky too, but potentially not more so than Yadi did. Obviously for most players, though, the .350 BABIP isn’t sustainable (I’m not aware of anyone who’s done that over a sustained career, although Hanley Ramirez has managed it over 4 years combining good power and excellent speed).
I was sort of being lazy in my first post and should’ve said “over a sufficient sample size”.
Skip’s running a .332 career BABIP, which, to be fair, does look a bit lucky. He does have an extremely low proportion of his BIP as flyballs, which will obviously help him get on base, but, given his speed, I’d think a .332 would be difficult to maintain. The aforementioned Crawford only has a .332, Jose Reyes just .311 (although he hits a lot more flyballs, Schu’s BIP profile fits more closely with Crawford’s, except he’s not as quick). That said, even Crawford hits more in the air than Schu does, and he has a slightly higher IFFB%, so who’s to say that .332 isn’t a fair representation of Skip’s hitting skillset?
In any case, I think it’s not unreasonable to think that Skip is a .360+ OBP guy going forward, if we minimise his exposure to LHP.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 12, 2010 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
Skip's had a consistently higher than expected BABIP anyway
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
He also has an almost historically low Flyball%
plus a pretty low in-field-flyball rate. Guy doesn’t hit a lot of balls that can be caught; that’s going to help a BABIP pretty well.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 12, 2010 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
Yes.
Hitter’s BABIP is not a luck stat. It might correlate with luck, but it is not a luck stat.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
it's definitely influenced by luck
just not as much as pitchers’ BABIP against is
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Everything is influenced by luck
A hitter’s BABIP is more influenced by luck than a hitters K Rate, and less influenced by luck than a pitcher’s BABIP.
Nothing is a “luck” stat.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2010 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
% of PAs against Todd Wellemeyer
there’s a luck stat for you
by brackenthebox on Feb 13, 2010 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
He Should be....
…our #2 hitter, but we don’t have an-udder decent lead-off guy.
:=8/
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
I agree
I wasn’t bashing Skip — he’s performed admirably under the circumstances and I like him a lot as a player. I just don’t think he’s an ideal lead-off guy, but you’re right when you say the alternatives are limited or to be more precise, practically nonexistent. And hits are the same as walks in terms of OBP, but I was merely saying that I don’t see Skip’s hitting improving that much, so walking more is the natural avenue to raising that OBP.
that article is a fine example of why so many people don't trust statistics
Stats don’t kill brain cells; people abusing stats kill brain cells.
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
you could tell it was a winner from the opening sentence
I took each lead off hitter a plugged in numbers to a formula to determine who is the best lead off hitter.
by brackenthebox on Feb 9, 2010 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
A formula!
Exemplary mathematics!
Great schematics!
Excellent methodologies!
[Exuberant adjective] [sciencey-sounding noun!
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
He's almost an exactly league average hitter
Most guys struggle on pitches on the corners you nknow.
This cracks me up:
@JoeStrauss Cards reach 2-year deal with Schumaker. Good news, right? So why slip it under door after business hours then chafe when asked for comment?
Oh, Straussie.
Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown. - tom s.
Why the hell...
would they be especially proud or ashamed of buying out Skip’s second arb year for an apparently reasonable price?
Has Strauss ever considered that maybe the reason they chafe at his questions is because he’s a complete asshole?
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
by guayzimi on Feb 8, 2010 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
The deal is worth $4.7 million, a club source confirmed.
Maybe it’s just him.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
translation from straussese -- "i asked for an exclusive comment from mo and he wouldn't return my phone call
so i’m going to write a semi-coherent conspiracy theory to punish the club for daring to insult my journalistic preeminence."
see “albert pujols left without giving me a comment so i will hint that his lack of chattiness is a sign of poor clubhouse leadership.” (ca. oct. 2009).
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
yeah
that was messed up when he did that. albert should get a restraining order on the dude – you know he could.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Albert could get anything he wants in the city of St. Louis
He basically runs the city from what I can tell.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
letter in strauss's company mailbox:
Cardinals reporters would be wise to check their Twitters around midnight…
by DanUpBaby on Feb 9, 2010 4:46 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Just to reemphasize a couple of points
I pretty well like this deal. Its fair to Skip and the club. Schumaker has been, while not spectacular, a steady hitter and a good clubhouse presence. I’m also assuming that Skip will take a small step foward with his fielding. The closer that UZR gets to “0”, the more valuable he becomes.
And I think by the end of the year, he might get there.
From what I've read
Skip is a fiend with the text messaging. That’s the kind of networking that pulls clubhouses together!
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
by mojowo11 on Feb 11, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
captain man stew
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Yeah, this looks fine.
It’s about what you’d expect him to get in arby, minus a little bit for the fact it’s all guaranteed. So pretty fair move by Mo.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
Less money
than the Cubs gave Aaron Miles ($2.2 in ’09/$2.7 in ’10) last off season.
From Skip’s point of view, he has some security. He could be looking at what AK just signed for with the Nats – $1.25M with a $2M club option. And Floppy can’t get a job this offseason.
Not really a totally fair comparison
Miles was a FA, if I’m remembering this correctly.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
Miles was non tendered by STL
If Skip signed for one year, he ran the risk of being non tendered due to poor performance or too expensive. If non tendered, he would be a free agent similar to what Miles was after 2008. I think the security of the contract was worth the potential loss of a “big” free agent contract.
oh, yeah—
reccing this for the harry potter reference. Carry on.
by DanUpBaby on Feb 9, 2010 8:23 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
snape can really pick it at second, i heard.
he’s so mad he just gets stuck in RF.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
by tom s. on Feb 10, 2010 1:06 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
late to this party
but -1 for the harry potter reference.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Feb 15, 2010 1:49 AM EST reply actions
flagged by the mod
it hurts.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Feb 15, 2010 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
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