David Freese Projection Results: The Average Players
by DanUpBaby on Feb 5, 2010 6:00 AM EST
319 comments
Our David Freese projections—we got 83 of them—were far less divided than our attempts to project Colby Rasmus. In keeping with Freese's anodyne image there was no 48 home run projection, hundred-point swing in batting average or slugging percentage, and generally no consideration given even to what a David Freese breakout would look like. Only four people suggested he would hit either more than 20 or less than 10 home runs; three each predicted a batting average below .250 or above .280.
The end result looked a lot like this. It might be familiar!
| AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 446 | 59 | 118 | 24 | 3 | 15 | 65 | 39 | .264 | .323 | .433 |
That looks about right. David Freese has no exciting hitting skills, but his only real flaw is a 20:40 batter's eye; everything else is Good Enough. Would you like to see something really creepy? If you gave the NL Average Third Baseman from 2009 446 at-bats, this is what his numbers would look like:
| AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 446 | 59 | 116 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 61 | 46 | .261 | .333 | .419 |
So nice job, Baseball-Reference Projection Robots: you got within two extra base hits. Here's what the other projections have to say about David Freese's Perfectly Average 2010 Experience:
| AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| VEB | 446 | 59 | 118 | 24 | 3 | 15 | 65 | 39 | .264 | .323 | .433 |
| Marcel | 193 | 26 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 19 | .280 | .347 | .440 |
| CHONE | 353 | 49 | 95 | 21 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 32 | .269 | .335 | .442 |
| Fans | 448 | 59 | 125 | 24 | 1 | 15 | 65 | 38 | .279 | .335 | .437 |
We are, in fact, less optimistic about David Freese than both Fangraphers at large and CHONE. Residual Jim Edmonds angst? A reflection of our familiarity with David Freese's stellar driving record?
So the David Freese in our mind's eye is in keeping with the plan that can be inferred from the Cardinals' post-Holliday moves: surround the two big hitters with a bunch of average players and avoid the kind of giant sucking sounds that have to be filled at significant cost around the trade deadline.
Losing Chris Perez and Jess Todd is both a dead horse and a bad fit for this kind of discussion, since the last third base hole came after both Troy Glaus and David Freese came up lame with completely unexpected injuries, but if that's the going rate for an average infielder it's not one the Cardinals can afford to continue paying without turning the farm system into a late-Jocketty wasteland of injured pitchers and fourth outfielders.
In that sense the 2010 Cardinals look well-stocked: no spot makes me as nervous as, say, Skip Schumaker 2009, or... well, Skip Schumaker 2008, or that year's frightening Kennedy/Izturis/Miles middle infield arrangement. A number of spots even have cheap Thurston-plus backups at the ready—Ruben Gotay at third, Tyler Greene at short, Allen Craig wherever he's allowed to play. Having already suffered through the uncertainty (and often poor play) that came with relying on B- prospects like Schumaker and Yadier Molina, it is about time for us to reap the mental health benefits of supporting a lineup that has, for the most part, already proven itself competent.
That is, until you start to think about the rotation.
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Freese
If he meets the projection he’ll make everybody happy, because it will also mean he’s acceptable defensively to get that many ABs. He needs to get off to a good start to ensure that TLR sticks with him. Last year wasn’t Brian Barden rookie of the month for April? Then he evaporated (no idea where he is now). I won’t pretend to be a David Freese expert- the only time I saw him was on MLB network coverage of last year’s AAA playoff game. He looked bad defensively on one play where he tried to take a ground ball to the side, matador style, instead of getting in front of it. Oquendo and TLR will not let him play if he does too much of that. From what I read, however, here and elsewhere, he seems to be regarded as having adequate major league fielding skills. Let’s hope for the best. It seems as if they are going to give him the shot to win the job.
by vinniefromjersey on Feb 5, 2010 6:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
From everything I've seen of Freese playing, read about him, and heard about him,
he is an average-to-above-average defensively. Defense is the last thing I’m worried about. No matter what, he will be an improvement over Thurston and DeRosa.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Feb 5, 2010 9:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
De Rosa wasn't much of a fielder
All his value was in faking various positions. Playing him at third base full-time is a fairly poor use of his abilities. If Freese can play third well and hit average-ly, then he’ll be more useful than DeRosa would have been. IF…
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 5, 2010 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is what I find odd.
One looks at the farm and sees Craig and Wallace, but hears that the organization is down on them because they aren’t good with the glove. Okay, fine. But, then one looks at who we had a third base last season—Thurston and Derosa—and one sees below average or worse defensive players. (If defense is so important why did the poor-hitting Thurston receive more time than the poor-hitting, but great-fielding Barden?) I understand that both Thurston and DeRosa were band-aids at the position and that Plan A was the slick-fielding Troy Glaus before he got hurt while Plan B was the slick-fielding David Freese before he got hurt. Still, one would think that the club would target a better fielder as a stop-gap than what we did. All of that said, Wallace is gone, Craig is in left field, DeRosa is gone, Thurston is gone, and David Freese looks to be the starting third baseman. I can’t wait for Spring Training so I can pay too much attention to box scores.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Feb 5, 2010 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I often wondered how Barden would have faired if
He had just been run out there for a couple of months to play every day. His defense was good and the offense I don’t think would have been worse than Thurston. I know Tony is trying to set up players to succeed (rather I guess I think that is what he is doing) but it must be hard for players who have all their lives been every day players to shift into more of a platoon. Similarly, what if Colby got the majority of ABs against left handers? I am concerned that some of these platoon situations turn into self-fulfilling prophecies.
by OCCardsFan on Feb 5, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
absolutely
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
by sportsman on Feb 5, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But you are forgetting
the lefty-righty matchup. Tony says it is the essence of baseball that shall be employed whenever possible. Only an ignoramus (Sarah Palin said we can’t use the word retarded anyone because of her son Trig) plays Brian Barden against right handed pitching when Mighty Joe Thurston is available.
I too thought Barden got the shaft. He was the best fielding 3B we trotted out there in 2009 and yet he got sent to the minors while Thursty continued to not only draw an MLB check but also get starts. Go figure.
by jjray on Feb 5, 2010 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
bud selig mandated that thursty must be on the roster?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe Tony got Barden and Craig confused
Or maybe they both remind him of Rolen for some reason.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Feb 5, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
you won't be laughing when 85 YO TLR is managing
and Rolen is his bench coach.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 5, 2010 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The whole gang will be back together!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Feb 5, 2010 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
(Sarah Palin said we can’t use the word retarded anyone because of her son Trig)
Much as I may otherwise think she’s the spawn of satan, I think she’s actually got a pretty fair point there.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 5:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but apparently it is okay if it's for satirical purposes.
Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown. - tom s.
by spants on Feb 8, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I kinda agree with everyone else
I still wonder why Barden’s never got much of a ran in MLB. I’m pretty sure he’s liable to be a solid, 1-win type backup infielder (CHONE projects him to be a 1-win guy next year, with a crappy bat and a nice glove), and he can play 2 positions well and one (shortstop) passably. I’m still not sure what’s not to like about him, other than that he’s essentially relatively fungible, especially as there might still be a tiny bit more upside, as he was actually a genuine “prospect” a few years ago, and (I think) hit 15-20 dingers one year for the D’Backs AAA affiliate.
The fact that guys like him can struggle to get any playing time anywhere whilst people like Yuniesky Betancourt, who has an increasingly iron-clad glove and who isn’t any better at hitting, have full-time jobs is beyond me.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 5:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
wonder what happened to Barden? wasn’t he kidnapped at one point last year?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair to the org
I feel they cut him out of playing time a little early in favour of Thursty (although, equally, he only had a .300-odd wOBA even after a hot April), but he utterly sucked with the bat in triple-A for the rest of the year. I guess having Lugo & Gotay makes him pretty dispensible.
He’s with the Florida Marlins now – actually a good move for him, I think, because he’ll probably get a coupla hundred ABs with them next year. They ran out Bonifacio as their main backup MIF last year, and he utterly sucked. I suppose it depends how they resolve the Coghlan/Uggla situation at 2B, and who plays 3B if they end up using Cantu at 1B again (which I guess they will), but it looks like there’ll be some opportunity there somewhere.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 5:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He'll be Ok...
…but not great.
:=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
by The MooCow on Feb 5, 2010 7:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
we shall see cow
we shall see
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Average 3B better than 2009?
If Freese plays to this projection, is it not an upgrade at 3B over 2009 as a whole for the Birdos? Plus defense as well compared to 2009?
SD
by Gibby45 on Feb 5, 2010 7:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It will be Nice...
…to have an actual third base man at third, and not a journeyman ‘middle infielder’ plugging a hole.
:=8/
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
by The MooCow on Feb 5, 2010 8:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
HUGE upgrade!
3rd base in St. Louis last year was a huge black hole of suck.
He hit it good. He hit it good.
by Jack618 on Feb 5, 2010 10:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Evidence
Cardinals 3rd basemen put up this beautiful line last year….229/.292/.369. That is putrid, and then you take into account that most of the time, they were also cringe inducing in the field.
Nightmare.
He hit it good. He hit it good.
by Jack618 on Feb 5, 2010 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Spring Training 2007
Fresh off a World Series championship in which we somehow weathered the regular season collapse due to pitching failure, I was feeling optimistic about our new look pitching rotation. This optimism prompted me to pen a Fanpost entitled, What the Starting Rotation is Replacing. The gist of the post is that the ’06 threesome of Weaver, Suppan and Marquis were so bad that we were almost certainly destined to improve over it in ’07. Well, we all know how the ’07 season turned out. That is my word of warning toward the “last year was so bad, this year has to be better” logic. Nonetheless, I agree that we ought to get better offense and defense out of third base this year than we got last year.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Feb 5, 2010 10:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point,
and duly noted. Optimism tempered, but it’s hard not to improve on that.
He hit it good. He hit it good.
by Jack618 on Feb 5, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the gist of the post is that the ’06 threesome of Weaver, Suppan and Marquis were so bad that we were almost certainly destined to improve over it in ’07
Wait, weren’t we replacing them with Kip Wells, Braden Looper, and Brad Thompson, though?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 5:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Because you asked nicely...
It’s way worse, but they are pitchers.
.155/.184/.220
He hit it good. He hit it good.
by Jack618 on Feb 5, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, but the baserunning ...
Ouch. Dear David, put down the brew. Try to drive in some runs. Try to get on base. Once on base, don’t be an asshat. See the ball, catch the ball, throw the ball to Albert. Please pay attention to this advice more than Thirsty and What’s His Name that was injured. Love, VEB.
SD
by Gibby45 on Feb 5, 2010 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
P.S.
When throwing the ball to Albert, make sure you are not throwing it into the path of the runner coming down the line.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 5, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the "gibby"
contingent has spoken.
by WyoCardsFan on Feb 5, 2010 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Other fun comparisons...
Terry Pendleton (Cardinals career): .259/.308/.356/.664
Carney Lansford (Athletics career): .288/.343/.404/.747
Todd Zeile (Cardinals career): .266/.347/.413/.760 (Overall Career): .265/.346/.423/.769
All of those guys were solid defensive 3B while providing league average or worse offense. It’s surprising how bad Pendleton was in the BoB, he was one of my favorite players growing up, and I certainly didn’t expect his numbers with the Cardinals to be THAT bad. Outside of Torre, Boyer, and Rolen the Cardinal franchise really hasn’t had any All-Star caliber stalwarts at the 3B position, Freese would just be the next in a long line of Ken Oberkfell’s, Milt Stock’s, and Les Bell’s.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 8:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Reitzie made the all-star team
I think.
But I take your point. Making the team once does not make one all-star caliber.
Reitz could sure pick it, though. He was a joy to watch in the field. Without checking his stats, I would not be surprised to learn he didn’t have outstanding range, however.
Hell of a lazy post. Sorry. Gotta get back to work.
by Youneverknow on Feb 5, 2010 10:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wow, I had no idea Reitz was that bad with the bat
one season with an OPS over .700, and his career high OBP was .300. Wowzers. You talk about a disappointment with the bat after being a pretty damn good September call-up.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 5, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It is kind of disheartening to look at all my childhood favorite Cards through my new "sabermetric goggles"
and realize a lot of them really weren’t all that good. Hooray for childhood naivety, I guess.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 5, 2010 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow.
I didn’t remember Pendleton being that poor at the plate either.
The weird thing is, defense aside, Pendleton was either very good at the plate (2 seasons with OPS+ > 120) or very bad at the plate (7 < or = 90) as a regular. Sure, he had three seasons where he was decidedly averagish: 1987 = 103, 1989 = 98, 1995 = 103, but they were few and far between.
Of course, that’s kind of the luxury of being so good with the glove. Range factors can be very misleading, but judging by them and his fielding percentage (all we have from that era, unfortunately), he certainly seemed to be Rolenesque with the glove. It’s funny, even without WAR and wOBA, guys like Whitey seemed to know the score.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 5, 2010 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pendleton is a pretty decent hitter in RBI Baseball (in context)
Only the great Jack Clark is a reliable home run hitter for that team (35 HR, .459 OBP, .597 SLG, 136 BB goodness that was a good year) but Pendleton, McGee, and Peña have surprising power. And that team is fast as hell.
And I play that game way too much.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Feb 5, 2010 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really miss RBI baseball
I remember in Jr. High and High School having like 36 hour weekend RBI Baseball marathons with a couple of buddies. We fueled ourselves with Jolt cola and Doritos, of course.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 5, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm proud to say
I’ve hit non-inside-the-park homers in that game with everyone in the Cards’ regular lineup other than pitchers. Even Ozzie.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Feb 5, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've always said
That Clark season is the best non-Mattingly season of the 1980’s considering where he played his home games. Busch II in the 80’s was death to home runs.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it was an outlier
the dude was obviously on steroids that season
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 5, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Which is why Dawson totally deserved that MVP
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Feb 5, 2010 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ozzie was giving Jack the steroid injections
The Dawson MVP is making much more sense now.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 5, 2010 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Steroids couldn’t have helped Dawson hit 49 homers, because he was feared. But it did help Clark rack up all those walks, because it artificially increases strikezone judgment. Ozzie missed out because he was the accomplice.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Feb 5, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
also because you can't give the MVP to someone who has seen Jack Clark's bare butt.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 5, 2010 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
clark and steroids
clark used to hit liners that dented the wall. if he’d gotten any lift he would have hit a ton of homers, but they were doubles instead (even singles they got there so fast). very similar to good troy glaus, and nobody has ever accused troy…oh…yeah…disregard.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd actually say he was more like ryan ludwick
Glaus was/is a big lumbering bohemoth. Clark/Luddy seem like more of the skinny, wound-up, explosive type.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
by SleepyCA on Feb 5, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it was mostly a bad steroid joke
and then about the types of balls they hit rather than body type, but yeah, luddy is a pretty good comparison.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Looks like a mafia henchman from some random movie that did too much time in the tanning booth now
And that’s just his butt.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Feb 5, 2010 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thankfully
his face and his butt are almost indistinguishable.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 5:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think maybe part of it is that wasn't Pendleton pretty clutchy?
at least, that’s how I remember him, seemed like he had a good amount of game winning rbi’s and the like
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
odd about pendleton
he made only one all-star team and it was not his mvp year – it was the year after.
5 world series without a ring.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have picture of him driving the boat on the Cardinals Cruise.
That’s worth like 2 World Series.
by Mister Eff on Feb 5, 2010 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It was funny that Zeile was on the HOF ballot this year.
I realise he got no votes and it’s only really a nod of recognition to the guy, but really, all it takes to make the ballot now is to be merely average-ish over a reasonable career?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 5:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'v always thought the only qualification for making the ballot
was to retire and wait 5 years, no matter the sucktitude.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 8, 2010 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and to have played ten years, correct?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 8, 2010 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes indeed
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 10, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're right, the comparison to league average is "creepy."
It’s also unexpected. I didn’t get to “vote” in this thing owing to computer issues and weather, but if I had, my guess would have been less optimistic (maybe closer to Pendleton’s BotB career line), and I remain unable to believe that Freese will be as good as a league-average third baseman. Thing is, though: he doesn’t need to be. If he’s an upgrade on Sloppy Joe, he helps the team — relatively speaking.
Question for discussion: does the recent news that the team has started negotiating with El Hombre on an extension significantly reduce the chances that that $7M we’ve heard about will be used to procure an upgrade on Freese? Or had they been budgeting for that extension already? Living a thousand miles from STL, I have a hard time reading the tea leaves from here…
by StanTheManFan on Feb 5, 2010 10:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I have nothing to back this up.....
but I would assume that the club has been budgeting to sign Apu for the last couple of years.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
by RiverRat on Feb 5, 2010 10:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
to me, a lot of people want to spend the cash just to spend it
If I were the owner, I wouldn’t spend it unless there’s some way obvious improvement to be made.
by sdrone on Feb 5, 2010 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also,
we don’t know the FA players’ situations. If no one is truly interested in, say, Lopez, then why not wait and pay less?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Feb 5, 2010 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A little better bench
and some protection in case of injury to the starting staff are, to me, both desirable uses for the remaining money – whether done before the start of the season or into it
by CRay on Feb 5, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2010 mid course corrections and bail-outs
will have to be done more with cash than players (we basically have one to none anyone would actually want), so i’m sure it will be difficult to pry thse last few million away until an emergency is identified
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
by sportsman on Feb 5, 2010 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the cost
is cheaper now, imo. seems at mid-season a premium is paid.
that said, i’d bet the birds have an extensive list of guys they’d give a good look to on the cheap if/when these guys don’t stick with their present teams out of spring training.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
I really don’t like the “dry powder” approach at all. Seems better to get a full season’s production for just cash than to get 2 months’ production for cash and prospects, which we can barely afford.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 5:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If I were the owner, I wouldn’t spend it unless there’s some way obvious improvement to be made.
Thing is, at this point in the year, there nearly always is. Especially this off-season with free agent values being so low. Unless you’re the Yankees, there are nearly always holes in the average team on the bench, in the bullpen, or even in terms of potential platoon partners for starters, and they’re usually going to be cheap. I actually think there’s a lot more bargains to be had at the cheap end of the free agent market than anywhere else in baseball, and I’m pretty sure there’s still talent out there that = a real upgrade for our club, for what is (more or less) pocket change in baseball terms.
Plus, we’re at a point on the potential win curve (i.e. we’re probably 3 or 4 wins ahead of the Cubs and the other competition) such that any very marginal upgrades (or insurance policies for major pieces) we can acquire can be quite valuable.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 5:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My projections from yesterday:
450 AB, 65 R, 17 HR, 70 RBI, .265/.320/.425
Pretty close to the average there.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
by RiverRat on Feb 5, 2010 10:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'll take
league average from Freese. And remember, even tho we all think he doesn’t have a huge upside over time, he could improve a little on his league average in 2011 and 2012. If so, he would be a great budget balancer for at least half of the Holliday contract years.
by CRay on Feb 5, 2010 11:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Is there any way to access my projection?
I forgot what I projected but I would be interested in comparing it to the aggregate line. Just wondering if that is possible?
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
by indakind on Feb 5, 2010 11:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
DanUp would have to go pull it out of the spreadsheet for you
Which I imagine he would do if, say, a shiny new dollar showed up in his PayPal account.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
by mojowo11 on Feb 5, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if he would pull mine
if I purchased of one those retire46 t-shirts.(did I get the uni # right?)
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 5, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Too rich for my blood
I realized I should have copied it right about the time I hit the enter button.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
by indakind on Feb 5, 2010 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Freese's projections out of 2 fantasy baseball magazines
Thought you might want to see these and compare them to the projections mentioned above.
Lindy’s Sports: 464 AB, 84 R, 19 HR, 84 RBI, .277 AVG
USA Today Sports: 327 AB, 41 R, 12 HR, 48 RBI, .254 AVG
We would certainly take the Lindy’s projections!
Milt Thompson FTW!
by gossard56 on Feb 5, 2010 11:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lindy’s Sports? had to google that one.
regardless, they’re a bit optimistic.
by _pistol_ on Feb 5, 2010 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
84 RBI in 464 AB is ridiculous
An RBI every 5.5 ABs. That’s middle-of-the-order-type production.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 5:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
…the thing is that average isn’t bad… It’s average, meaning common. Average offense and good defense will be just fine. Hopefully that’s what the BoB get from the Iceman. I mean, I think Freese has more in his bat than this:
Note: I don’t say this to bash Thursty. It wasn’t his fault he wasn’t good or that he was forced into being the de facto starting third baseman.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 5, 2010 11:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
I’m currently reading Baseball Between the Numbers and they’ve got a good chapter on Average level vs.Replacement level. Average major league players are really pretty valuable, since the majority of players in baseball are around Replacement level-ish (according to the Baseball Prospectus guys’ numbers in BBtN). If we can get average level production out of Freese, with even slightly above average level from Skip, Colby, and Ludwick combined with Pujols’ ridiculosity and Holliday’s really goodness, I think we’ll be OK (note, this does not include the pitching side of things, which I am a little nervous about).
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 5, 2010 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I look around the diamond...
…and I see what would appear to be at least a serviceable defense. Luddy is fine in RF, Colby is good, and the numbers say that Holliday does a good job. Molina, Pujols, and Boog are all really good and Freese should be solid. Skippy is probably still below average, but he did show improvement as the season moved along and one mediocre glove should be tolerable.
On offense, they have plus-bats at left and first, and potential for improvement in CF, C, and RF. They should hit enough, field well, and they still have a really strong rotation. I’m cautiously optimistic.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 5, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Serviceable?
Compared to some defenses in the NL, I think our defense is fantastic.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
by Taskmaster on Feb 5, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I think we’re all slightly taking for granted that Skippy will be OK next year (though I readily agree he looked fine in the field the last couple of months) we’re basically average or better everywhere else. That’s pretty nice.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 5:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
re tastee boy
why do folks expect him to be average this year, when it proved so difficult for cloby to be so last year?
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
by sportsman on Feb 5, 2010 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll try a reply, sportsman
1. he’s older so more of a record exists for him, tho obviously almost all in the minors – the age factor also should cause him to better recognize this is his chance
2. he’s always been healthy, excepting the ankle injury that occurred in a car accident – Rasmus has been hit with various ailments the last few years – in fact, had Rasmus stayed healthy last year, his numbers would have been much better – he led all rookies in most offensive categories in early July
3. we’re optimists that tastee’s previous personal problems won’t get in his way, probably partly due to his advanced age
4. probably other factors that someone else will point out but everyone seems to like his defense
by CRay on Feb 5, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who Dat?
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
by The MooCow on Feb 5, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Colby was above-average last year.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 5:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Twins
look like they might open the season with a higher payroll than the Cards. That’s what I call having faith in your new stadium generating revenues. From 65M to 96M is amazing. Looks like Jim Pohlad is opening up the DontchaknowWallet.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 5, 2010 11:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
well, isn't that the richest family in baseball?
same thing happened when the owner of chicago blackhawks died. the son took over and did things differently (spent money to win) – i’m assuming jim is the son of…is it carl?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Blackhawks also mangled their cap situation after this year
And it took lucking into Kane/Toews at the top of the draft.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Feb 5, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
don't know that much about it
just all the scuttlebutt around chicago at the time. hey, the games got televised after the old man died.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
which is ridiculous
why put your product on TV so the fans can see it… 1960s coverage is the way to go…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
by ducttape16 on Feb 5, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i know
he was afraid the fans wouldn’t attend. it’s hockey in chicago, for chissakes.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Luckily they didn't...
then the games went back on and they did. Rocky was a genius…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
by ducttape16 on Feb 5, 2010 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that would be the case
I’d absolutely love it if the Twins kept up this kind of payroll. With the way the produce talent up there, they could dominate that division for years.
/finally over the 87 series
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 5, 2010 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the home team won every game
and four happened to be in their park. plus, we had a depleted lineup. to take it to seven was, imo, a minor miracle.
now, i will never get over the 85 series.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder how many snow days they'll have
by ol Pete on Feb 5, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"just remember, twins, for every snow day now,
You have to make it up with an extra day in june!"
/classroom groans
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
by tom s. on Feb 6, 2010 12:09 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
dang
2 days straight of the thousand mile glare!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 12:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Mildly OT,
but Colby is talking dirty to me over on the G-D.
When I was up there hitting against them, I didn’t feel over-matched or anything. I just didn’t come down with some hits. This year, (I need to) just get up there and relax and don’t try to do too much with one at-bat.
No mention of the words “aggressive” or “taking my hacks” or any of that other McRae tripe. I think i might…
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
by hazel on Feb 5, 2010 12:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's like he wants to mention BABIP
but he jut doesn’t know what it is.
by Mister Eff on Feb 5, 2010 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There's no way it's an actual quote, right?
I mean, it had to be translated from “shonuffIjustrelaxanjusttakeiteasymandaggone” or something.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
by hazel on Feb 5, 2010 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dingdangolelefties
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Feb 5, 2010 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
can't pronounce BABIP.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
beolaolbeoioangottagotakeadangolpee?
/new favorite meme
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 5, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've created a monster.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
by spants on Feb 5, 2010 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
I think the return of the Mac bodes well for our offense.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Feb 5, 2010 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"Oh my gawd!"
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 6:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
this week suck
bring on next week
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 1:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
has there been any word
about skip’s arbitration?
R.P.O.F.Y.M.
by BVHeck on Feb 5, 2010 2:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Anyone know anything about Noah Lowry?
If he is asking for a Minor Leage Deal, why did we sign that Hill chump? I know Lowry wasn’t anything to get all googly eyed about, but IMO would perfer him to Hill considering both are coming off surgery.
by Schnurdog on Feb 5, 2010 3:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
How about we sign both?
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
by mojowo11 on Feb 5, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i think he threw for some teams
don’t know if we were one of them (or even if it happened, tbh)
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather the club pick up Dana Eveland
over either of Hill or Lowry. No injury and just as good statistically. Unless there’s some scouting reason not to, he’s the guy I want.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
by azruavatar on Feb 5, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
his name is Dana
reason enough for me
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
by STLRegalia on Feb 5, 2010 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Seems weird we didn't
again, as he’s moved to Toronto where he’s not guaranteed a starting spot if everyone’s fit.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 6:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
mets, rockies and giants interested in the colonel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 3:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hmmmmm
What a surprise, the two worst GM’s are interested in the Colonel.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
by Taskmaster on Feb 5, 2010 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm honestly surprised the Reds aren't.
by Mister Eff on Feb 5, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
strategery
they’ll jump in at the last minute and steal him away. it’ll rank right up there with the larry walker acquisition in walt’s legacy.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kennedy's off to join Marquis and Duncan with the Nats
One year deal with a club option for 2011.
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 5, 2010 4:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nats might be kind of interesting to follow this year
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
i think they can break .500
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 4:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
they've always been a good offensive club
and they improved their pitching quite a bit this year
assuming that at some point during the year they will probably have zimmermann, marquis, strasburg at the top of the rotation, it’s pretty plausible
they’re definitely better than the mets
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
in the rotation?
Or as a whole?
If the Mets are healthy offensively they’re going to be one of the better ballclubs in the NL at scoring runs.
Their pitching isn’t terrible, although I think Piniero would have been a good pickup for them. Ollie Perez can’t pitch any worse than he did last year, so their bound to be better than last year if they’re healthy.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
their pitching is terrible
the mets are a good offensive club, yeah, but they look to be the 2009 nats to me
unless they sign some pitchers
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They still have Santana
and he’s better than anything the Nationals have. Period. Other than that, their 2010 staffs are pretty much the same. Zimmerman won’t be back until mid-season and maybe not at all, and Strasburg won’t make his debut until at least June.
Marquis and Maine are pretty much the same pitcher.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But the Nats have Marquis.....
Auto birth to the playoffs.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
by RiverRat on Feb 5, 2010 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He does seem to end up there quite often, doesn't he?
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 6:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think a team he has
played on has missed them yet. Betty getting on the playoff roster is a totally different subject, however.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
by RiverRat on Feb 5, 2010 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's been a decade staright now
and he rarely is on the postseason roster!
by Mister Eff on Feb 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ha
that will be the gauge for their success… can they be a winning team?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is that including the
10 games that they lose for Adam Dunn hating America?
/I also think they have a better chance @ .500 than say, the pirates.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
by RiverRat on Feb 5, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
really going out on a limb there,
wasn’t I?
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
by RiverRat on Feb 5, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ya never know
the Pittsburgh Pirates could be the sleeper team of 2010 (not)
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought the Reds were the Sleep Team Of Every Year
™
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Feb 5, 2010 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
pirates will probably be all right, too
i don’t know if they’re a .500 team, but i’d venture to say they’re as good as or better than the astros this year
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
relatively
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think either of them
will be within 5 games of .500 this year.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
by RiverRat on Feb 5, 2010 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
speaking of bad gm's
the astros, wow
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How great would it be to watch a Nats game with both Duncan and Dunn
manning the outfield. The center fielder would have to try to cover 70 percent of the outfield. I think the pitcher/s would seriously consider retirement by the end of the game
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."
by CardHawk on Feb 5, 2010 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i think they'd probably
spread dunc-and-dunn out in left, and have the cf’er play right center.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For some reason this post made me think of the old quote. . .
80% of the earth is covered by water. The rest is covered by Garry Maddoxx.
My brain works in strange ways sometimes.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 5, 2010 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
pooy Nyjer Morgan
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 5, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can easily see. . .
a National League where the Padres and maybe the Pirates are the only two teams with less than 76 wins.
I don’t think there are any worldbeaters in the NL with the possible exception of the Cards (and that’s only if everything breaks right). And other than the Padres, who will be mind-bendingly awful, there aren’t any truly horrible teams. The Reds and Cubs could get there more easily than most.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 5, 2010 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what about the phillies?
i think they’re a couple wins better than the cards
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Phillies are pretty good
So are the Dodgers. Both of those teams would have to be ahead of the Cardinals on paper.
The Marlins could also be an 85-90 win team if some things break right for them. Nolasco and Johnson are a pretty good top of the rotation, and Hanley and Uggla can carry an offense — they just need a couple other guys to have better seasons, specifically Cameron Maybin.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I think the Phillies are pretty good. . .
better than the Cardinals, even, unless Carpenter and Wainwright are CARP!! and WAINO!! again.
But there’s too much age there and too much competition in the NL East for me to expect them to be a 95+ win team.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 5, 2010 6:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno
they’re clearly better than they were last year.
- A full season of Halladay > 2 months of Cliff Lee
- Upgraded 3B
- Full season of Happ > 1/4 season of Happ + 3/4 season of Moyer
- Hamels will probably be better than he was last year — if he’s 2008 Cole Hamels they’ll probably win 100 games.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I keep forgetting (blocking it out?) that they have Halladay.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
by spants on Feb 5, 2010 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know
Think if they’d have been able to keep Cliff Lee? I mean, fuck.
They’re going to be a monster in that division. Barring catastrophic injury problems (and I mean catastrophic — their AAA club has guys that can help, and Ben Francisco is a pretty good player that’s humping the pine right now for them) I think the Mets and Marlins are playing for the wild card from day one.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am so,so glad they didn't keep Lee.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
by spants on Feb 5, 2010 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And so, so sad I forgot a space there.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
by spants on Feb 5, 2010 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i still don't understand why they didn't
lee says he wasn’t asking for the moon.
and what’s with the canadian kid they got, aumont? i don’t recall seeing him on their top ten prospect list somewhere, though i wasn’t specifically looking for him at the time, so, in retrospect, probably just don’t recall the list that well.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I seriously can't believe
that what the Phillies are paying Halladay (20 mill a year roughly) would not be interesting to Lee. Something else is up here, and they seriously could not get a better haul of prospects than what they got from the Mariners!! Just ask the Dodgers if they would like him (I know the Phillies wouldn’t be inclined to deal with the Dodgers) or even Texas, which would be a perfect trading partner.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
by Taskmaster on Feb 5, 2010 11:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I keep forgetting about the g-d tiger!!
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Feb 6, 2010 9:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2008 hamels
is pretty much the same pitcher as 2009 hamels
look at the numbers
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Counterpoints
Is Polanco really an upgrade? He hasn’t played 3B in a decade or so. And he’s old.
Raul Ibanez will be 38.
Ryan Howard will continue to hit against LHP.
Brad Lidge is one Pujols HR away from rocking and mumbling in a corner of the clubhouse.
Which Hamels is the real Hamels?
Is J.A. Happ for real?
How much will they need 237 year old Jamie Moyer?
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 5, 2010 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
happ is not for real
he’s a #3-4 starter in the making
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe not,
but he’s probably better than Kyle Lohse, and he might end up being better than that.
Hamels will probably be a bit better next year — he struggled with his control last season even though his FIP was identical. They have as good a 1-2 punch as anywhere in baseball, and better than the Cardinals 1-2 simply because of the lack of injury history and durability concerns with their two pitchers.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 6:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Polanco is an upgrade over Feliz
at least 1 win, possibly more. They also sorely needed another hitter like him that works counts and gets on base.
They get anything from Ibanez and it’s gravy — he was non-existent for the entire second half last season and they STILL won a ton of games.
If not Lidge, than Madson or Romero can close games. Madson had a horrible year last year but has been pretty good prior to that, and Lidge seems to be an every other season type of pitcher for some reason. Worse comes to worse, they have the scratch to pry away Papelbon or someone to come close games if need be.
Howard isn’t the focal point of their offense. If he only hits righties that will be ok — they still have Chase Utley, the best player in baseball that nobody knows about. Howard /= Pujols in terms of team value.
I think everyone underestimates how big of an upgrade Roy Halladay is. Keep in mind, the guy has been pitching in a division that includes two of the top 5 offensive teams in the entire MLB for his entire career. You put him up against clubs like the Nats, Marlins, and Braves for an unbalanced schedule he’s likely to put up an FIP below 3.00 in the division.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He might be able to win 30 games
if he were given 35 starts.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 5, 2010 10:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Biggest counterpoint
Phillies got pretty lucky last year with injuries.
Like the Cubs in 2008-2009, that’s presumably likely to regress to a more average scenario. Other than Utley being out the first week or two, I don’t recall any of their main men being out for much time at all last year. They finished 2 wins ahead of us last year, and we had our previously 5-win third baseman replaced by a smorgasbord of suck.
Of course, Halladay > 2 months of Lee, and Happ and Hamels could both be better this year (although I actually think 2009 is going to be a high watermark for Happ), but if you factor in a fair season of injury luck, their 2009 record (93 wins) looks a fair bet for this season. I think they’ll need a LOT of luck to touch 100.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 6:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Happ and Hamels are both due to regress-
Happ to worse, Hamels to better, so that might just balance out.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
by hazel on Feb 5, 2010 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hamels ERA maybe
but he was pretty much the exact same pitcher he’s been in ’09
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well ERA is really the only thing that matters at the end of the day
He should have given up 3.7 ERA, but it was actually 4.5.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 6, 2010 10:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the dodgers are not better than the cards
they are considerably worse than ’09
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see how that's the case...
They have Manny for a full season next year, and they’ve lost Randy Wolf, Juan Pierre, and O-Dog — EVERYONE else returns. They have two pitchers in their rotation with ace level stuff (Kershaw and Billingsley), Kuroda (who missed a lot of 2009) is a solid 3, Padilla is a good #4, and #5 is probably a question mark, but it is for the Cardinals too.
Their lineup still has a lot of pop, as much or more than the Cardinals does, unless you think the Freese will outperform Casey Blake — I don’t think that’s likely.
When you factor in the injury issues with Carp and Penny, they’re at least on par with us on paper and probably a bit better.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 6:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
did vicente padilla reup?
i’m not convinced about kuroda’s health and billingsley fell hard back to earth around the second half
i’m not convinced they’re better than the cards
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 6:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They were better than us last year
in a better division and then swept us out of the playoffs. They lost one player that played significant time in that series (Wolf). Sure, we beat them head to head in the season series….but the pitching matchups strongly favored us as well.
I don’t see how there’s any question there really. Their bullpen is so much better than ours it’s not even worth comparing them. That’s really the trump card. Everything else is kind of a push.
I think Billingsley will be back to his 2008 form next year.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 6:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm still a bit disappointed in Carp's first game
seemed like he was out of steam
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That was a huge let down
If that wasn’t the worst game he pitched all year it was very close to it. He did not have the command of the strike zone he normally has. He just couldn’t locate his pitches the way he’s capable of.
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."
by CardHawk on Feb 5, 2010 9:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not quite as bad
as that game against the giants, but close
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That team could be incredibly scary
If Billingsley and Kershaw perform to their potential (which Billingsley will. He was hot in the 1st half, then fatigue and not being used to throwing 200 innings really hurt him), that team could be nasty, but Manny is a question mark along with the issue of Russell Martin and where his power went, as well as the terrible contract that is Rafael Furcal at the moment.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
by Taskmaster on Feb 5, 2010 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
remember how pissed atlanta was
when furcal took the dodgers offer after seemingly agreeing with them? they even threatened to never deal with his agent again, till the union said that wasn’t allowed. well, i wonder how atlanta feels about it now.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the GOB repay.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
by SleepyCA on Feb 6, 2010 12:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think our starting pitching is slightly better than theirs
although you could argue that one either way.
Billingsley ~ Waino, although I think I’d rather have Waino, all things considered.
Healthy Carp is definitely better than Kershaw at present (both got lucky on flyballs last year, but Carp had a much better K/BB rate and was otherwise better in most respects) but Kershaw has more ceiling and is arguably less of an injury risk, so I guess you could argue that the two aces are roughly equivalent.
I think Kuroda is of similar value to Penny.
I think Lohse is probably better than Padilla, but it’s very close.
I’m guessing Eric Stults is their #5, he kinda sucks, but I suppose that position is up in the air for us two. Wash, probably.
So, overall I think the two rotations are actually very comparable – both have 2 aces, solid #3 guys with some recent injury concerns, durable #4 guys with average stuff, and a question makr at #5. I’d take our 5 ahead of theirs, but I could see it going either way.
However, I think our starting 8 position players are a reasonable amount better than theirs (I think it’s easy to underestimate just how f’ing incredible Pujols is – the rest of their team is better than ours, but when you factor in that Albert is probably about 6 wins better than Loney at 1B, that’s a LOT of ground to make up elsewhere):
Yadi is probably a win better than Martin (at worst it’s a push).
Pujols is probably 6 wins better than Loney.
Our respective 2B platoons are probably about a push.
Furcal is probably a bit better than Ryan, but it’s close.
Blake’s probably a win better than Freese, I’d say.
Holliday’s 1-2 wins better than ageing Manny.
Kemp’s probably a win better than Colby.
Ethier’s probably about a push with Ludwick, although I could see an argument that he’s maybe slightly better.
We’re splitting hairs in most positions, so overall (1B excluded) I’d say we’re a similar team, but Albert blows Loney out of the water by such a distance that our position players are a good 4-5 wins or so better than theirs, at worst.
As you say, fourstick, their bullpen is awesome, and I suspect they make up nearly all the ground there, given ours is pretty awful. Also, I think their bench (at present) is better. Overall, then, I’d say it’s a push, but you can make a fair argument either way. I certainly wouldn’t say they were definitely better, and I could see us pulling away if we added (say) Smoltz or Branyan+Springer or something with the cash we have left.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 6:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
in retrospect
Yadi is probably ~ Martin. I think the rest of my off-the-cuff valuations are probably fair, tho…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 6:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Padilla is back
he’s kind of a fly ball pitcher, and that could play well at Chavez Ravine, especially with Kemp out there — although Manny kinda makes up the difference there I guess.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 6:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wait
you saying kemp is a good defender?
do i need to dig up the “here is a picture of wizard” pic?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 6:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
UZR has him +2.5
in his last 2100 innings in CF. Not great, but above average.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 6:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
like i said
here is a picture of a wizard
pretty sure that trumps uzr
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I love that pic.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
by spants on Feb 5, 2010 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Worth posting
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
by mojowo11 on Feb 5, 2010 8:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's a good one
but not what i meant
maybe i’m thinking of “here is another picture of a wizard”?
i twas matt kemp in a wizards robe (?) leaping for a ball going over his head
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 8:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Kemp is a wizard in the outfield
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
by RiverRat on Feb 6, 2010 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who IS this guy?
I’ve seen this a half dozen times now, and have probably been told more than once who it is, but I simply cannot keep it in my head. It doesn’t look TLR, or Torre….
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 5, 2010 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe a football coach
fassel?
where is that kemp/wizard pic? that was a classic.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just a security guard at the ballpark, I think
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
by mojowo11 on Feb 6, 2010 12:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's gdm
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 6, 2010 12:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he's so garbo
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 12:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kemp
grading out at +2.5 in UZR makes me wonder about UZR – my eyes tell me Kemp isn’t a very good center fielder – I know the metrics say otherwise, but I have serious doubts here
by CRay on Feb 5, 2010 8:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i always have to remind myself
that it’s a comparison to other players at that position, so it’s all relative
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not to my understanding
not in + part of OPS+ sense
i suppose it’s entirely possible for there to be a year where all CFers are negative according to UZR
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i don't think so
someone, perhaps vep, explained it here, and what i took away was that, rather than a measurement of an individual, it was a relative ranking amongst his peers. so if every cf’er sucked, the best of the suckees would still have a positive uzr, and if they were all great, then even a good cf’er could have a negative uzr.
perhaps someone could clarify?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 9:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
UZR
measure the amount of plays made within and outside of their zone. so if someone misses more play within their zone than they make outside of it, they will have a negative UZR
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's how i thought of it
until the aforementioned explanation.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's not true at all
UZR breaks down each batted ball into certain bins based on estimated velocity, location, batted ball type, etc.
It then measures the out% of each bin, and compares that to how the fielder performed in those bins.
So if, say, Colby Rasmus got 10 batted balls in bin 25 (soft line drive to shallow center) and caught 7 of them compared to the league average catch rate of 5, he was +2 plays in that zone. You then convert that to runs.
So since the bins in UZR are all compared to league average, the metric itself is compared to league average.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 6, 2010 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not sure if this is a reply
to my above call for clarification, but thanks – that’s what i took away from it before, and what i was trying to say now.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This was a reply to pj
But, yes, i was clarifying for you.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 6, 2010 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
again, thanks
you seem to have a knack for explaining statistics and data like pitch f/x in a way the layman can understand.
does a For Dummies exist for this stuff? if not, maybe you should contact the publisher (after the penny piece, of course).
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i see
thanks for correcting me
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 6, 2010 12:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't wrroy about UZR
UZR has a lot of measurement error, meaning if Kemp has a 2.5 UZR, he could actually have been a -5 defender and UZR measured him wrong for some reason. There is also the matter of sample size. Even if UZR measured him perfectly, and Kemp was really a 2.5 defender, it’s possible that he’s still a crappy defender and just had a good 2100 innings.
UZR means very little in a small sample size. 2100 innings is a pretty small sample size. As the sample grows, the usefullnes of UZR does too.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 6, 2010 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Pirates will be lucky not to lose 95+ games this year
They are replacement level on offense at 3 different positions (LF, SS, 2B) — that’s a lot to overcome.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you at SS. . .
but Iwamura (2B) and Milledge (LF) are pretty safe bets to be better than replacement level IMHO, if physically and mentally healthy, respectively. On the contrary, with the exception of SS and either 1B/RF (wherever Garret Jones isn’t playing), the Pirates seem to be a very average-y hitting team. Granted, Jones could turn back into a pumpkin, but you can’t just hand wave away a 293/372/567 debut with 21 HR in 350+ PA.
And even Bobby Crosby at SS has the dreaded unfulfilled potential tag.
I could easily see the Pirates being close to .500, although admittedly, I think that’s their upside.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 5, 2010 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on .500 being their upside.
My point was that none of those players has even been BETTER than replacement, and I forgot about Iwamura, that was just a brain fart. I think Jones is due for an Ankiel-esque regression next season — he swings from his heels and strikes out a lot, although he does walk more than Rick ever did.
Perhaps LaRoche, Crosby, and Milledge all hit their potential this year, I just wouldn’t count on that happening.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and they have a future star in CF
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who would you rather have
McCutchen or Rasmus?
HMMMMMMMMM. That’s a tough one….
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if i answered that
i would have to beat myself up
i really don’t know, but it’s hard not to lean toward mccutchen
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 6:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll take Rasmus
but only because I think McCutchen played over his head a bit after his call up last year, and I think that Rasmus will be the better defender and power hitter in the long run.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Feb 5, 2010 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't Colby's minor league track record better at least?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Feb 5, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I think McCutcheon’s power potential was pretty much realised last year. I don’t think he’ll ever be more than a 10-15 HR guy. Of course, he might get on base a bit better than Colby going forward, but I think Colby’s still got that 30 HR potential in his locker, which just about swings it for me.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 6:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I feel the same way.
I looked at his numbers. McCutchen had a .331 BABIP, but that isn’t outside the norm for his last few years in the minors. Colby had a .284 BABIP. I like Colby, but I mean, c’mon.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
by spants on Feb 5, 2010 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
McCutchen's ISO is higher, too.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
by spants on Feb 5, 2010 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
good point
hadn’t looked that closely at his numbers
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How many songs did high school girls write about him?
by Mister Eff on Feb 5, 2010 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
This is a very important point
Let alone remixes of said songs.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Feb 5, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
CHONE Standings
Not really what I expected overall (but that could be a poor estimation/memory of who is on what roster). Surprises: Detroit Tigers – last, Braves over Phillies, Giants in last
Think; It's not illegal yet.
by azruavatar on Feb 5, 2010 6:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm surprised that
the M’s are only projected for 78 wins and last in the west.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
by RiverRat on Feb 5, 2010 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wat
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is your wat?
that I’m surprised, or are you surprised as well?
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
by RiverRat on Feb 5, 2010 7:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm surprised as well
perhaps even………stupefied
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The AL West is going to be tight this year, but I can't see the A's not finishing in last place.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 5, 2010 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the Mariners will be mid 80 win team imo
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 8:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
def
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 8:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
YOO HOO
the Cards get home field throughout the NL playoffs!!!
by CRay on Feb 5, 2010 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Man
Tops in the league with 91 wins? Crazy.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Feb 5, 2010 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yep
3rd in all of baseball
i’ll take it
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 8:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That and the Yankees missing the playoffs would just be fantastic.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
by Taskmaster on Feb 5, 2010 11:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I can see most of that happening
except the Braves overtaking the Phillies. I can see the Tigers dropping off, but I see no way they don’t finish in front of the Royals. Of course it seems like the Royals have played them better than most teams over the past couple years, so maybe the Royals dominate the season series, and this actually happens.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 5, 2010 7:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Another projection with the Cubs having a losing record for the year.
This will be a great season for me if the Cards run away with the division and the Cubs are back to being, well the Cubs. Cubs fans are the majority here in the QC so it will be nice to see them and there fans back to the norm. Wait till next year Cubbies. I like that this is another projection showing the Cards have room for some error and injuries.
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."
by CardHawk on Feb 5, 2010 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
when I lived in the quad cities there were about the same amount of cards and cubs fans
definitely more cubs fans, but pretty close
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's at least 60-40 Cubs to Cards
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."
by CardHawk on Feb 5, 2010 9:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
try living closser to Des Moines
we Cardinal fans are definitely in the minority, but I guess that is what we get for living in Iowa, eh?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 6, 2010 12:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you speak canadian in iowa?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 12:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm drinking Molson
give me a freakin’ break!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 6, 2010 12:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You mean "give me a freakin' break, eh?!"
/fixed
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 6, 2010 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
pardon moi
(i’m drinking red wine)
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Red, red wine?
does it keep you rocking, all of the time?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 6, 2010 12:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, i rock
till i fall out of the chair.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 12:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
should be an interesting season
even the Astros could end up making some noise with that rotation. if Roy Oswalt and Wandy have really good seasons you never know. the Reds have a lot of potential, great defense, good bullpen. and when Volquez returns and if he is effective, could be interesting. I hope the Cards win the Central and the wild card is another NL central team
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 9:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if we had the best record in the nl
i might prefer to play the wild card, though it’s impossible to know now. but we def couldn’t if it a central team.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 9:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
is playing the wild card team a good thing?
is the question
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have a feeling that this is the year Oswalt starts teetering on the cliff
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 6, 2010 12:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really don't think the Astros have any chance at all
probably ~1% of making the playoffs. If absolutely everything and anything clicks for them, and they have no injuries, it’s hard to see them breaking 85 wins, and you’ve got to imagine one of us, the Cubs, the Crew and the Reds will better that.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 6:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I will be thoroughly stunned if the Braves finish ahead of the Phillies.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
by spants on Feb 6, 2010 2:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
me too
but I think you can definitely argue the Braves are the 2nd best team in the NL. Stacked rotation (arguably the best outside of the AL East IMO), strong bullpen, and I think Wren’s actually done quite a good job of quietly addressing some of their concerns in terms of hitting and defense this off-season. I guess their big problem is that they’re a high-variance team due to having a couple of major cogs in their offense being injury-prone; they really need Chipper to be healthy most of the year and to get something out of Glaus, IMO.
I really think Branyan would’ve been a better add at 1B than Glaus, but I guess he’ll also cost a chunk more.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 6:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he's bashing the Cubs
how can you be a better drunk than that?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 6, 2010 12:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, seemed pretty normal to me
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 12:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Straussie in Jupiter
Nice vacation bonus for our hero Joe as he sets up shop 12 days early.
by ubeddie on Feb 5, 2010 9:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
handegg
here’s a video showing that Drew Brees can throw a football more accurately than an archer can shoot an arrow (dude hits the center of the bullseye 4 times! and hits the bull’s evey 10/10!). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVoqA-LKGb4
and an article about how Peyton Manning has obsessive compulsive personality disorder
http://www.slate.com/id/2243726/
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2010 9:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Driving a cab is so cool
Since I started I have picked up Tulo’s girlfriend(hot) Helton’s guests(nice house) Hawpe’s neighbor, and Cody Ross’ brother Stephen(talked about about partying with Giambino, said Lego was a lil to square for his taste) seriously best job ever
Я виключаю ти, сука
by TomCat009 on Feb 5, 2010 10:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
if tulo's gf wasn't hot
i’d have to seriously reconsider him being one of my favorite players – probably he and werth are my fave non-cards (and mauer). did the mauer contract happen yet?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and utley
yep. those are my top 4 fave non-cards.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 10:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and they drafted an unsignable HS SP
two picks ahead of Utley the draft has not been our friend
Я виключаю ти, сука
by TomCat009 on Feb 5, 2010 10:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
of course the
Cards drafted Shaun Boyd ahead of Utley but it isn’t like they could have used him anyway
Я виключаю ти, сука
by TomCat009 on Feb 5, 2010 11:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
we already have a 3-hole hitter.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 11:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
HEYO!!!!
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
by ducttape16 on Feb 6, 2010 12:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can you believe how
The Rockies made a last minute decision to draft Greg Reynolds instead of Longoria, how would that infield look with Stewart at second or as the eventual replacement for Helton?
Я виключаю ти, сука
by TomCat009 on Feb 5, 2010 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what pick was longoria?
didn’t he follow tulo at long beach st, or am i thinking of crosby?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hochevar went 1 Reynolds 2 Longoria 3 in 2006
in 05 they got Tulo at 7, in the press and on every board we were hearing that Tulo, Longo were being reunited then they took the soft tosser and said that Longo’s inability to play 2B and Atkins+Stewart already in the mix we didn’t need another 3B(of course that didn’t stop them from picking Chris Nelson at SS the next year)
Я виключаю ти, сука
by TomCat009 on Feb 5, 2010 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
longo actually played alot of ss
if not predominantly, after tulo left long beach, iirc.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 12:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I still think he could be an average major-league shortstop.
dude has incredible range for a 3B. He’s Rolen-good IMO.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 6:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought Longoria was the #1 pick overall.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
by Taskmaster on Feb 5, 2010 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
of course the 10th pick
that year is working out pretty well to, The Rockies stole Jeff Francis, and Greg Reynolds away and forced their division rivals to draft Matt Cain and Timmuh
Я виключаю ти, сука
by TomCat009 on Feb 6, 2010 12:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brilliant!
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
by Taskmaster on Feb 6, 2010 12:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the Giants have always been suckers!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 6, 2010 12:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Shows how much attention I paid to the draft years ago :P
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
by Taskmaster on Feb 6, 2010 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OT:
Nuggets up by 9 over lakers in LA. Not really a roundball fan, but I hate the Lakers, and the Nuggets are in-state.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 6, 2010 12:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't watch the NBA.
That being said I love college ball.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
by ducttape16 on Feb 6, 2010 12:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't watch it either
Prefer college, but even that I find boring. Just seeing updated scores on other sports websites.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 6, 2010 12:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
nuggets are an interesting team
and any laker loss is right up there…well, not quite with the cubs, but right up there.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 12:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tulo's wife
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 6, 2010 1:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wonder if she knows about the girlfriend?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 1:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wonder if she knows about that shirt?
good gawd.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
by SleepyCA on Feb 6, 2010 4:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
she likely picked it out
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 10:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
her girlfriend was cuter
Я виключаю ти, сука
by TomCat009 on Feb 6, 2010 6:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
haha
in that case, i wonder if he knows about the girlfriend…and other things.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
These crazy kids
her friend was 23 and ownded a local italian joint she had me come in to try their Osso Buco and sent me home with a chick parm sangwich for the road no charge, seriously that girl was going to make some much better looking man very very happy
Я виключаю ти, сука
by TomCat009 on Feb 6, 2010 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I love Osso Buco.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 6:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
veb favorite steve phillips
is scheduled to talk about his affair on monday’s “today” show. sorry i have to miss it (super bowl and all), but wonder who will announce his hiring shortly thereafter – yes, it’s coming up on baseball season.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 5, 2010 11:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Apparently there's a Cory Rasmus in MLB.
Any relation?
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
by Taskmaster on Feb 6, 2010 12:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
isn't that his brother?
i’m being serious, btw.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If by MLB he meant the minors
Then yes, it’s his brother. He’s in the Braves system, was a second round pick.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
by mojowo11 on Feb 6, 2010 12:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He any good?
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
by Taskmaster on Feb 6, 2010 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
baseball america
had him with the best curveball of braves prospects in 2007. he’s had arm issues (surgery i think) since then, and according to their sbn site (chop talk?) from feb 2, he hasn’t yet regained his velocity but they are hoping for over 100 minor league innings this year and are still high on him. as said above, he was a second-round pick.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
when does fantasy baseball start?
like when can we create a league and start drafts and stuff?
i’ve never done it before
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 6, 2010 1:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think pitchers and catchers
have to report first by law or something like that. I don’t know. I tend to avoid fantasy cause then I find myself having guys on my team I can’t stand and rooting for situations instead of teams. Or my team struggles because I bring my biases into team building. At least that’s how I justify sucking.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
by ducttape16 on Feb 6, 2010 1:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I start to suck when I have too many teams
by CodyG on Feb 6, 2010 2:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I start to suck when I have A team...
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
by ducttape16 on Feb 6, 2010 2:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that was a funny line...
…pitchers and catchers have to report first by law…
but if it is somehow true, then it’s hilarious. (i know nothing about fantasy leagues.)
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 6, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have a yahoo league
was thinking about checking out some other leagues, anyone know of better fantasy baseball services?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 6, 2010 2:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i heard cougarlife.com has one
…ah ha! you’ve just fallen into their menopausal trap! mwah-ha-haaaa!
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Feb 6, 2010 2:32 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I would be totally down for it
Was looking for a new league to replace one of my keepers that fell apart.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
by Taskmaster on Feb 6, 2010 2:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
gee
I wonder who the first pick of the draft would be.
Projected first round
1.Mang
2.Wagoner
3.carp
4.Lego
5.Clobber
6.Hanley
7.Bead of Sweat from El Hombre
8.JEd(comeback!!!)
9Yadi
Я виключаю ти, сука
by TomCat009 on Feb 6, 2010 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And a cubs player on your team disqualifies you.
by CodyG on Feb 7, 2010 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Does Rich Hill count?
Я виключаю ти, сука
by TomCat009 on Feb 8, 2010 2:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
last year it was kinda like that, yeah
I didn’t get a single Card on my teams all year (though I have a suspicion I might’ve rolled out Barden or someone for a couple of games at one point, might be wrong) because they all went at least 2 rounds earlier than they probably should’ve.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 6:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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