Community Projection and Discussion: David Freese
by DanUpBaby on Feb 4, 2010 6:00 AM EST
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PrintHere's my criteria for separating the enormous pitcher contracts from the more common big pitcher contracts: if I am able to make a snide remark about how much Kyle Lohse is being paid, it's big; if I am not able to do same, it's enormous. (Of course, having gotten Kyle Lohse's name in this way... well, I'm not prepared to deal with the implications.)
Justin Verlander's deal falls into the second category. Five years, $80 million is a higher annual value than Chris Carpenter gets in 2010 and 2011, at the top of his contract. As has been noted all over the place, it's basically the same deal the Mariners gave Felix Hernandez, which should make for an interesting pseudo-challenge-trade over the next several years. As for why long-term deals for pitchers make me dizzy, and why evaluating pitcher makes me vague, here's one timely reason: Verlander is several years older than Hernandez, which might actually make his deal better for the Tigers. No: I'll stick to hitters, thanks, where men are men and everyone peaks in their late twenties.
#
Speaking of hitters in their late twenties: We have been speaking of David Freese as the Probably-Average-ish Third Baseman for so long that it occurred to me, today, that I'm not sure what I expect that to look like for him. Players who get a late start in the minor leagues—and then a late start in the major leagues, as a result —confuse me like that, sometimes.
Regardless, it is time we put our collective understanding of The Cheap Third Baseman to the test. After the jump I have some MLEs and the link to the community projection form.
| Year | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 2006 | 71 | 272 | 30 | 66 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 47 | 20 | 66 | 1 | .243 | .313 | .404 |
| 2007 | 128 | 526 | 70 | 121 | 22 | 4 | 10 | 64 | 50 | 132 | 4 | .230 | .310 | .344 |
| 2008 | 131 | 470 | 68 | 125 | 25 | 2 | 20 | 71 | 33 | 112 | 4 | .266 | .316 | .455 |
| 2009 | 77 | 250 | 35 | 66 | 16 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 24 | 62 | 1 | .264 | .329 | .448 |
Exciting, right? Bullet points:
- Freese's 2007—.302/.400/.489—gets dinged because it happened in the Cal League, which is to hitters what the FSL is to pitchers. I'd like to say that that was why I was against the trade when it happened, and I'll maintain that it had some effect on my decision, but let's be honest with ourselves: I would have been upset with the Cardinals trading Jim Edmonds for anything short of the key to the J.D. Salinger vault. My subjectivity aside, I have to credit John Mozeliak for deciding Freese's skills were real; the MLEs show even more clearly than his untranslated numbers how much of an improvement Freese has made since joining the Cardinals.
- That said, he's going to be 27 in 2010; there's less room between these MLEs and the ceiling than there was for Colby Rasmus, the subject of our last community projection. Is 2008-2009 David Freese a solution at third base? It's a little better than league average for the position, but league average includes the Joe Thurstons of baseball—a concern unless your projection has David Freese playing 162 games in 2010. For this and the next several Cardinals squads a cheap and average third baseman is ideal.
- Decent batting average, 15 home run power, good glove, late start after minor league numbers that suggest there's an unfulfilled need for the word "whelming"—my community projection line is going to be a random year from Joe Randa's career.
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League average 3rd sacker
If Freese plays 160ish games at 3rd and does so at league average… I’m completely down with it.
Those OBP’s are a bit unnerving, he seems to enjoy the K’s as well, but if he fields the position adequately and hits 15-20 out of the park, a bit more on doubles, I’ll like the guy.
I have no idea, so I ask- where does this dude hit in the order? 7th?
They say sing while you slave but I just get bored
That would be awesome
My projection ended up really similar to CHONE, just with more ABs. Kind of unnerving.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Those OBP’s are a bit unnerving
He’s always walked enough in MiLB to be competent enough at getting on base. TBH, if anything, I wonder if he won’t be more of an on-base threat than Craig, albeit with less pop.
I think he might end up being a Juan Encarnacion-type hitter (though perhaps with a few more in both the BB and K column), but at a more premium position and with a slightly better glove. That ain’t too bad hitting 7th in the lineup, considering Juan-E was in the 5-hole for much of his time in the Lou…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 8:47 AM EST up reply actions
His OBP in the minors has been pretty heartening, IMO.
I don’t think he will be like JuanE as a hitter because of his walking ability. JuanE only barely surpassed a 7% walk rate a few times while Freese has never walked less than 7.8% of the time in the minors.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Maybe
I don’t think there’ll be a lot in it, though. His MLE for his AAA work (2 seasons of data, now, albeit one is only partial) is about a 6% BB rate, although the projections seem to have him round 8% for next year, which is quite promising. He’ll walk more than JuanE I guess, but I don’t think by a huge amount (also, I did say he’d walk and strikeout a little more than JuanE, but otherwise be similar in overall value and slash-line).
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by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
oh yeah, and the stare
“I’ll f’ing cut you, bitches”
They say sing while you slave but I just get bored
His eyes are really asymmetrical
it’s quite unnerving.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 8:48 AM EST up reply actions
Not quite to the Scherzer level... I'm talking more about shape than colour...
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by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 8:49 AM EST up reply actions
A lot of uses of the word "unnerving" in today's thread
And yeah, they are very asymmetrical. I didn’t even notice that until you pointed it out.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Nah, just a little blood shot.
Kudos on airbrushing out the measuring-tape lines behind him. Can we see the profile pic now?
Am I the only one who won the staring contest?
by outraged on Feb 4, 2010 7:50 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I think my numbers for Freese were a bit on the pessimistic side.
Course, if I’m right on Freese, then I hope I’m right on everyone, because some of the numbers look really good for my guesses.
If he ends up being Joe Randa
Hallelujah!!! We’ve found our third baseman for the next 6 to 8 seasons!
Can’t get much better than an above average bat and above average glove at a corner infield position. Randa was never flashy, but he was always solid, and when you have Pujols and Holliday, what you really need are solid position players that you can count on around them. I’ll take “the next Joe Randa” any day.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Joe Randa as a comparison.
If we get a 2-to-3-WAR player in Freese, at the league minimum, I’ll be pleased.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
<----- Thinks Tastee Freeze...
…should give out free ice cream cones every time Freese hits a dinger!
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
by The MooCow on Feb 4, 2010 9:25 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
And THEEEEEEEEER'ES his new nickname!
hahahaha. “Whoa, Tastee just hit a dinger!”
Sup guys? Heard you wanted me to play decent at 3B...
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
by vexedtechie on Feb 4, 2010 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Ahahah
That movie was awful, but still, ARNOLDDDDDDD
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
"You won't be putting ME in the cooler!"
“Well, errrr, yes Arnold, but, ermmm, what does that mean exactly?”
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 5:22 AM EST up reply actions
Pessimism
isn’t usually my thing, but I am still not convinced that TLR won’t find someone else to give a lot of 3B ABs to. Very curious to see how the bench fills out. If Floppy really comes back it wouldn’t surprise me if Freese found himself in a platoon.
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
I could totally live with Allen Craig being given the role
if, for some reason, Freese doesn’t convince. Craig’s only 25 and he’s done little other than hit, hit, hit in the minors…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
I only projected for 350 ABs
I think Gotay will see a lot of time at third.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
God, I hope not
I’d be happy if no-one other than Freese or Craig had to take an inning at 3B this year. I just don’t believe in the Goat at all. One year of a suprisingly high BB% in AAA does not a hitter make.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
It's hard to believe he walked over 20% of the time in AAA last year
That’s a lot of damn walks.
But yeah, I’m not excited about the idea, I’m just expecting it.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
I said 380
glad I wasn’t the most pessimistic one
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
I think I was in the 400 range
I think Craig has a chance to get a run-out and we’ll probably see a bit of Lugo, Greene and Gotay there too.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 5:23 AM EST up reply actions
The thing about Freese is...
…that if he does what everyone hopes he will, no one will notice the guy. Hopefully that works out that way… I mean after watching Thursty play over there a fair amount last year and having three or four “Aww, eff Joe!”s a game I’m completely okay with a guy who rolls in and just quietly gets it done over there.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 4, 2010 10:44 AM EST reply actions
The frustration of Thursty's game:
1) Throws to first base
2) Baserunning
3) Not even warning track power
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Baserunning is numbers one AND two on my list...
and third on the list is those plays where he tries to deke the baserunner on a throw into third base. Saw him do that three times last year. The first two were ineffective and the third time almost killed Yadi.
My #1
When he would pull Pujols into the baseline and the path of a runner, my heart would leap into my throat at the notion of Pujols suffering an injury while attempting to catch a Thurston throw. That’s why throws to first base leads my list. But, yes, the baserunning gaffes were horrendous.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yes!
Those were painful to watch. You had to hold your breath.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 4, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
They reminded me of Eck's throws from SS
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
The form was poor
But it usually got the job done
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
Eck's were at least on line for the most part
Pujols had to pick a lot of them, but they didn’t usually fade into the runner at least.
Thursty? Well…
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 4, 2010 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
Pujols has to pick a lot of throws from Boog, too
He’s so good at it, it’s almost a complete non-issue. I’m much, much more worried about throws not pulling him into the runner.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
We must not remember Eck's final year in the same way
I flinched several times a week from the amount of time he led Albert into a runner going down the line.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
The dude would have lead baseball in HR
If baseball were played in a silo. He hit one weak popup after another, and then once and awhile tried to bunt for a hit which of course works rarely and never worked for him. No wonder his BABIP wasn’t very good… he was making it easy on them.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 4, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
MENDOZAAAAAA!!!!!!!!
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 4, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
Cognitive dissonance
Wouldn’t a lit cigar be troublesome for someone who makes his bones freezing things?
by Bernard Gilkey's Springfield Cardinals on Feb 4, 2010 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
It's a popsicle cigar
Phillip Morris are doing pretty well selling them to kids in Africa.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
it's Hollywood
explosions in space, time travel paradoxes, cars explode routinely, the highest paid star always lives, icy villain smokes cigar.
Re: the explosions in space thing
the thing that always bothered me is that, whenever you see any space sequences in Hollywood movies (or pretty much any media), all the space craft are the same way up. They don’t seem to realise that “up” and “down” don’t really exist in space…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 5:25 AM EST up reply actions
Psh, I shooped that last year at some point. haha
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
I am pessimistic on Freese
I still think the Cards will work out a deal with Lopez resulting in Freese getting worked in against lefties mostly (~250-30abs). I think if he is given the starting job on an everyday basis, he is going to be exposed badly. I hope I am wrong.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
Felipe Lopez is a switch-hitter.
And he doesn’t have all that dramatic of a platoon split, so, were we to sign him, why wouldn’t we play him every day?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
i imagine
he’d take skips ABs v LHP and freese’ ABs v RHP while occasionally filling in for holliday, luddy and albert
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Bingo
My grammar and construction must be terrible. I was saying that Freese would be the one with limited time. Lopez would be a full time player at 2+ positions.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
He'd probably be pretty valuable in that role too
being able to negate the number of PAs Julio Lugo has to take is probably pretty valuable in itself… That said, I still think Smoltz is the best bet for the last few nickels.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
OT: do you hate the cubs?
if so, perhaps you’ll like this…
it does have some strong language, and parodies something that some may not agree with, but I found it pretty funny.
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
is that the downfall thing?
if so, SO nexdef’d….
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
It's great that with good writing
you can make that fit anything…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
Best one, IMO
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
I've always liked this the best
granted it’s because I went to Illinois, but still I’m sure you can change the names of the bars to whatever school you went to or to bars you frequent/make fun of others for going to…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
i remember when that game was so incredibly cool.
I had a roomate flunk out of college over that game (plus a bit of Doom, and a lot of Master of Orion).
Guy actually gave me his floppy disks during finals so he wouldn’t play, intervention style, and then when i wouldn’t give it back before finals were over, went downtown and bought another copy.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Gotta love the lack of self control there...
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
My worry is
we tend to optimistically look at his ceiling. Yeah, he could hit .280/.340/.450 with 20 dingers. However, our stadium limits power and he could take some time to adjust to the majors. So he could just as easily hit .250/.310/.410 with 10 HR. That would be a problem. Then remember that batting average tends to fluctuate with simple luck, and he could easily hit 20 points higher or lower. If he is unlucky and hits the low end, and you take the latter line, you get .230/.290/.390. That would be bad. That’s the problem with marginal players—some bad luck, and their numbers start to look bad in a hurry.
I think he'll be closer to the .250/.310/.410 line.
I said the other day I think his numbers will be similar to Colby’s #‘s last year. After comparing their minor league #’s that may even be a little optimistic. I do tend to think TLR will find a way to limit his playing time unless he tears the cover off the ball. I’m just going with my gut feeling here more than anything so hopefully he out performs my projections for him.
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."
The middle line would be a problem?
Add 4 more homers to that and that’s what we got out of a half season of DeRosa last year, and he cost us two good prospects to get, only Freese is much more likely to put up + defense at 3B than DeRosa was. If he puts up that line and is +5 with the glove, you’re looking at a 1.5-2 win player. That would be acceptable to me for a guy who will hit 7th in our lineup most likely.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
yeah I agree
He should probably walk enough to put up a .060 ISOP, too, so if he can get a bit fortunate on BIP, that line could go the other way, too.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 5:27 AM EST up reply actions
That would be great!
But I think that is the very high end.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
That's best case scenario
I’m wondering if John Mo hacked into PJ’s account and made that post.
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."
now we know why he is a wise on all things Cardinal
ProphetJohnMozeliak?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Like mine, that's pretty close to CHONE, just with more ABs
CHONE has him at 350 or so, with a little less slugging.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
That would put him around 4.5 WAR
optimism much?
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
you think
.800 OPS would be 4.5 WAR?
i was thinking he’d clock in around 3-3.5
and yeah, i’m optimistic on him. all he’s done is hit so far and his SSS in the majors says at least that he isn’t scared of big league pitching like, say, a tgreene type might be
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
CHONE
puts him at .777 and 1.8 WAR over 353 ABs. so if he clocks in at exactly .777 like CHONE says, but with my 503 ABs, he’s a 2.6 WAR player. then assuming we change his OPS to my .799 prediction, that bumps him up to 2.7 WAR
i think that’s realistic and i’m okay with that
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Hey DanUp -
do you want us to put the decimals into our projections? Just want to make it easiest for you.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
(sigh)
I know that. There are text boxes that we put the numbers into. Do we use decimals or not?
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
There's no need. Freese will obviously average & OBP 1 next year.
I went for 4 SLG.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
sorry
I meant to say so, but yes. It’s only another ten minutes or so if I have to add some in, so no problem either way.
You all need to
go check this out.
And that is why you should look at FanShots.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
That is AWESOME
And another reason why, somehow, Fanposts and Fanshots need to be side-by-side. For me, I can’t even see the Fanshots section on the main page if I don’t scroll down. I try to scroll down once or twice a week, and posts like this one is the reason why.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
people really are scared of you
I saw early this morning that you said the Albert taking a dig at strauss fanshot should get more recs ( even after it had been up awhile), and then a couple hours later that thingy is in the Recommended Fanshot section.
And yeah, Old Man Ruth clobbered the snot out of that ball.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
In my case,
I never remember that the recommend a post button is there so spants just reminded me.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
bad. ass.
we all have to bug thepainguy to do one of his swing diagrams on that thing. It’s too bad there’s no video of the trajectory.
I was so bummed when the video first started playing b/c it was so far away.
And then I was pleasantly surprised when suddenly Ruth took up much of the frame.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
I'd say he'd get worked with that swing against modern pitchers
Did they not have changeups then? Good god he’s launching himself at the pitcher. It’s scary how much his loading of the hands looks like Bonds though.
Not afraid to nitpick
I said the same thing about Bonds to my husband.
The sound off the bat is fantastic.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
Good call on Cuban Black Beans in burritos btw
Granted I did it lazy with canned beans but whatever.
Not afraid to nitpick
I use canned beans quite often.
Sometimes it’s better to eat sooner rather than later.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
Looks like Bedard Resigned with the M's for only
$1.5M plus incentives. How can you not like that move
I do not see this
Where sees you this.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
only place I see it is here (via mlbtr). The guy gets Bedard’s age wrong by two years (per fangraphs), so take it for what you will.
by brackenthebox on Feb 4, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
This is what I see at Rotoworld
Erik Bedard told Larry LaRue of the Tacoma News Tribune that he would love to return to Seattle.
“I’d love it – put me down as No. 3B, because Ryan (Rowland-Smith) could be No. 3, he’s ready,” said Bedard. “I’d love to be back in Seattle.” Bedard said he hasn’t received a concrete offer, but there were rumblings early Thursday that he has agreed to a one-year, incentive-laden contract with the Mariners. Bedard, who underwent shoulder surgery last August, isn’t firm on a return date to the mound, but could see himself pitching in May.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
If your name is Erik Bedard.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
by hazel on Feb 4, 2010 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The description of the incentives
was that it was a “Ship-load of them”. I think he meant to say something other than that.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
TLR asked about Mac on ESPN First Take today
How much longer before he goes postal being asked about Mac and how he couldn’t have known about the roids? Also he picked the Saints to win the Superbowl. Who are the VEBers picking to win? I think Peyton and the Colts win a high scoring close game.
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."
I love having Mac as a hitting coach
but damn, I am ready for the distractions to end. I hope once ST rolls around that this crap becomes less annoying.
And if I had to vote, I would pick the Saints.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Might the distraction take some of the pressure off of the players?
I’d have to go with the Colts myself. But maybe those years of being in the same division with the Saints, and growing to hate them a bit, color my opinion. Conversely, the Colts have been there before.
i live in New Orleans
so i’m going to be rooting for the Saints. And I think they’re in the “Nobody Believed in Us” territory that Bill Simmons always talks about. It seems as if every outlet is predicting a Colts win.
"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang
i am rooting for the Saints also
But they didn’t look that good in the NFC Championship game
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 4, 2010 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
Ditto
If you can’t blow out a team when they spend that much time giving you the ball on turnovers, something is not right.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
They got outgained by nearly 250 yards!
In regulation it was probably around 275! That’s like a BABIP of .450.
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
it was the Air Martz Rams all over again
they had a lot of short fields because of the turnovers, the Vikes’ D was playing out of this world, and they were running a lot of pass plays. Favre was putting together long drives. So the Saints got clobbered in total yards & time of possession, but they obviously were keeping up on the scoreboard.
To look at it from another angle, Minnesota’s defense forced so many 3 & outs that you could argue there’s no way they shouldn’t have blown out the Saints….
they looked good enough
to trade punches with a really good Vikings team….the Vikings weren’t fumbling because the Saints’ D was missing tackles….
You're right
The Vikings were fumbling because they’ve had ball control issues all season, especially Peterson and Favre, who accounted for 4 fumbles between them (3 lost). Don’t be that guy who gives the Saints all the credit for “forcing fumbles” when it was clearly poor ball control on the part of Minnesota.
This is coming from a Vikings fan, so take that what you will. You eliminate the 5 turnovers, the Vikings probably score 55+ points. You don’t think the Colts offense is grinning ear to ear watching the tape of that game? If anything they’ll be less effected by Greer than that Vikings were since they are deeper at WR.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
i thought the vikes
led the league in fewest turnovers? think they showed that stat during the game.as the to’s mounted.
the saints d has hit hard in the playoffs, to my eye, whereas the last 3 games of season they played soft (perhaps purposely).
i’m in norleans, so will be rooting for saints, but i think colts win. thought the same about vikes, though.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
They only lost 5 all year
but they have 8 fumbles “statistically” but those don’t count fumbled balls out of bounds, and Favre’s fumble that iced the Steelers game and his two fumbles in the Cardinal’s game are strangely missing from the stat sheets. I would say they had at least 14-16 fumbles this season, only losing 5. That’s not good ball control, that’s getting lucky, and they were very lucky this season.
Trust me, I watched every Vikings game this season and any Vike fan will tell you that they had a lot of problems holding on to the ball this season.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
not doubting you
i just hadn’t considered how misleading the turnover stat could be if you have a lucky year in recovering your own fumbles and muffed kickoffs/punts, or fumbling out of bounds.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
eh
it’s true the Vikings were moving the ball at will, but the Saints were attacking the ball on every tackle. The Berrian and Harvin fumbles weren’t because of bad ball control, those were forced.
But everytime the Vikings scored, they’d have to give the ball back. This is why I brought up the Greatest Show Rams: not that the Saints look that good on offense, but people during the season in ‘99 tended to blow them off because the Rams would get smoked in time of possession routinely. If your drives are all either 3 & outs or 5 pass plays for 65 yards and a TD, you’re constantly giving the ball back either way. And anyway, you can’t just say “take away 5 turnovers, and the Vikes win.” Well sure. But it didn’t happen that way. And even if it did, the Saints would have gotten that many more kickoffs, and let’s just say that New Orleans’ return game looked pretty good that day, didn’t it?
I think the Colts’ offense can score on anybody. Super Bowl looks like a shootout to me—like the Saints-Vikes game, actually, where they’re trading haymakers towards the end.
I didn't say how many points the Saints scored...
But your point is irrelevant regardless.
Sure, they have to give the ball back after each score, but they gave them the ball twice inside their own 50 yard line, and three other times in which they didn’t score from about where they would have gotten a kick off return. New Orleans probably has the same number of possessions in the game regardless of the turnovers — what the turnovers did do is take points off of the board for Minnesota, which led to their eventual loss.
Obviously it didn’t play out this way, but you could have had 3 Minny turnovers and Minny would have won by two TD’s: The Harvin fumble and the Favre/Peterson exchange. Those directly led to a loss of 7 points for Minnesota and a gain of 7 points for the Saints.
A shootout? Sure, you and public all think that. I don’t. I don’t think anyone is giving enough credit to the Colts defense, which is very fast and covers well, and how the Saints struggle with really fast defenses like the Vikings, Dolphins, and Cowboys have. I think this game a epic mismatch, and a line of 7 points in the Super Bowl is a pretty damn big line. The gamblers aren’t stupid. They bought the Colts up big early are are taking the Saints as they hit 7 points to get a little action on the other side to hedge their bets.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Pulling for the Saints
Colts win 34-20
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
re: Super Bowl
I say it’s a pick em. Maybe slight edge to the Colts, but 1) Freeney’s status is up in the air, and 2) the Saints have “Team of Destiny” written all over them. Flip a coin, basically.
I have never been more excited to watch a championship that didn’t involve my team.
yeah
this might even be better than last year’s superbowl, which was one of the best imo
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
the one before that
was even better, I thought. I mean, he caught the ball with his head.
Anyway, there have been a bunch of really good Super Bowls in the last ten-ish years or so, hopefully it continues.
Yep
Pats-Giants was probably the best Super Bowl I’ve ever watched
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
I'll be rooting for a Saints
But they have trouble with fast defenses (Cowboys, Dolphins, Vikings) and the Colts have the fastest defense in the league, bar none. Manning will put up 35 points on their defense as he handles blitzes much better than anyone they’ve played this season, and the only way Gregg Robinson can get pressure on the QB is to blitz.
I also think that everyone is overlooking how well the Vikings, Cowboys, and Dolphins ran the ball on the Saints, when they wanted to (fuck you Darrell Bevell!!!). I think Addai and Brown could have huge games if Indy gets up early, as they’ll run the ball a lot against 6 and 7 man fronts.
Indy 35-Saints 21. That’s my prediction.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
That's funny
The trend seems to be so far to root for the Saints but the Colts will win by two scores. I think the Colts win but without Freeney it will be a one score game. Too bad I’ll miss most of it since I’ll be at work all night. I expect a great game.
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."
I think the Freeney thing is completely overrated.
People are trying to find holes in the Colts, when there just aren’t any. The Saints will still have to double Mathis, and they will, and the Colts have another very good end that can play on 1st downs and short yardage situations and just let Freeney come in and rush the passer. Raheem Brock played very well for them in spot duty and had 3.5 sacks this year despite playing a limited number of plays.
The whole matchup favors the Colts. They have the better QB, the better defense, and a much better kicking game. The Saints probably have a better running game (although every team has run on the Saints when they wanted to), and they have a playmaker in Bush that the Colts don’t have, but he shits his pants in a lot of big games. I just see the Saints getting stoned by that Colts defense frequently, while Manning leads a ton of 10 play drives for TD’s — soaking up the clock and limiting how much Brees has his hands on the ball.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
re: blitzing
this is a really good point. Peyton loves blitzes cause it reduces the coverage. I think Williams is aware of that, but how he plans for the game is anybody’s guess. If it were me I’d try to sit back and dare them to run the ball. The less Manning is throwing to his receivers the better, I suppose. It’s tough to put 8 guys up to stop the run against Indy cause then Manning is just going to stretch you out throwing it deep.
So NO has to do a bunch of stunts or something, because Peyton is so good at reading the D and rearranging the protection at the line. You gotta do something to disguise coverage, blitzes, or both.
Really, anybody's guess?
I think Williams is aware of that, but how he plans for the game is anybody’s guess.
Talk to any Chiefs or Redskins fans and they’ll tell you what the gameplan is: Blitz, blitz, and blitz some more. They aren’t going to change who they are — they’re going to do what they do best and hope it works. Gregg doesn’t know any other way. FYI, he was the D-Coordinator on the Chiefs team that got blown off the field by Manning in the playoffs earlier this decade. You know what’s scary about that? Manning is much better now than he was then, and Williams is the same guy he’s always been. This is not going to go well for the Saints…
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I really liked Wezen-ball's fictional future baseball article
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
hmmm
# Cardinals: Stan Musial, w/Rogers Hornsby, Enos Slaughter, Red Schoendienst, Ozzie Smith, Lou Brock, Dizzy Dean, Bob Gibson, Jack Buck. I have a hard time understanding what’s going on here. There just seem to be so many statues in a small place. Are they full size? Two-thirds scale? A few of the designs are poorly executed (Slaughter particularly), but there are enough great ones to get past that.
I’ve heard people say they don’t like the contorted action-shot type statues, but I think they’re awesome.
One of my favorite Cards fan memories is getting the idea to climb the Musial statue after the WS win in 06, then getting there and seeing that there were already a dozen or so people dangling off it.
And then someone who cared and respected Musial
shot those people?
I think it's pretty bad tbh
I don’t like the Ozzie one either, that’s the two I can remember. I think they’re ugly and not very well made.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 5:30 AM EST up reply actions
when they make albert's
it should look like this
Heaven has brick walls and St. Peter is a red bird.
by EinFesteBusch on Feb 5, 2010 12:34 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Just the stance
Scariest stance ever.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
on a unicorn
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
It's really hard to capture the beauty of a swing in a freeze frame, though
I really like the idea of that pic above. It captures his religious side, too, which is an important part of his life/persona. I think he’d like that.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 5:31 AM EST up reply actions
My projection
265/323/450
12 HR 60 RBI in 375 AB.
As i look at it, the RBI are probably too high, but there you go. I have no feel for Freese whatsoever, so I have no confidence in my projection whatsoever.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 4, 2010 1:57 PM EST reply actions
I hope you're right.
I had almost the same BA, a little bit lower OBP, and a lower SLG. I think the RBIs might be low. That is, if Freese bats seventh or so and Holliday is still on-base at that point…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Feb 4, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
Anyone else struggling http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc65NC44dSk
to file a tax return? Haven’t finished yet but have a feeling I’m going to owe money this year. Not excited about that at all.
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."
Anyone else struggling to file there tax return?
Have a feeling I’m go to owe money this year. Not excited at all about that possibility.
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."
Where do you live?
If you are in STL I have a fantastic tax guy.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
I don't even think my W2s were sent to the correct address
but they are going to take my tax return anyway for my student loans. doh
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
i still haven't got all my W2's either
Should of gotten them by now
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 4, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
I've already gotten my taxes done
and will get back my second biggest refund EVAR.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
i won quite a few contests this year
So those are the ones I am waiting on
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 4, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
that just means that you gave the government
a large interest-free loan – look into reducing your withholding
without getting too much into a taboo subect
meh…I don’t mind, this way I am not tempted to blow it before I need it.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
you could always have it directly removed from your paycheck
and put into a credit union or savings account before you have a chance to blow it – it would help some even at the current low interest rates
Agreed
Furthermore, there is no guarantee that you actually get the return. If you are audited it will be held up. One of these days the government is going to be broke and no one is going to get anything back. I am seriously worried that my MO tax dollars may not come back this year. Good thing it is not much $$$ but it is always better in your own pocket than the pockets of the legislature (state & fed).
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
FWIW. . .
MO has delayed tax returns before, and it wouldn’t suprise me at all if it didn’t do the same this year.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 4, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
I know
I think many states will do it again this year. That is part of the reason that I filed early this year. They usually wait till closer to the announce and act on delaying refund checks. I am only getting a few hundred bucks back but I would rather it is in my pocket than theirs.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
that should read "closer to the deadline..."
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
I went crazy with the Freese projection
I think he’ll stick at third and hit like 23 home runs. but wow, didn’t realize they guy had a horrid OBP
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 2:07 PM EST reply actions
He didn't have a horrid OBP. . .
it’s just that MLE discounts his OBPs. Too much, IMHO, but there ya go.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 4, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
ah
I was just going by the info in the table above. didn’t look that great, especially when considering his BA is pretty high, it would mean he hardly ever walks
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
I am impressed with that account
well, except for the Creed, but whatchagonnado?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Maybe the nutshot
was a deity letting us know he’s not a Creed fan?
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
by ducttape16 on Feb 4, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Guys... he knows!
http://twitter.com/mattholliday7/status/8642244043
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
that's him
it rained its ass of yesterday
all day
and it’s still raining
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
How great is it
that a family guy like this is one of the franchise centerpieces as opposed to an * like Giles, I dig the sympathy for Jackson’s coach teaching a group of 4th graders anything is like herding cats
Я виключаю ти, сука
I'm pessimistic about the guy
472 AB, 69 R, 13 HR, 65 RBI, .242 avg., .310 obp, .444 slg. The .754 OPS isn’t horrible, I am expecting some patience at the plate there, but I don’t see him hitting 15+ dingers his first full year in the MLB.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 3:02 PM EST reply actions
I think mine was pretty damn close to that
a higher OBP, because I have faith in his eye, and a slightly lower Slugging %, but that was the exact # of homers I have him pegged for. Most of this is because I have no faith that Tony will be patient with him. Freese better come out of ST on a roll.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
That's about what Colby did last year.
Is it just me or is there nothing impressive about Freese’s minor league #‘s. When I compared them with Colby’s, Colby had more upside than Freese. I hope Freese plays some great defense to offset what could be a very difficult offensive transition to the majors.
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."
of course colby has more upside
colby was the #10 prospect in baseball going into the ’09 season
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
and when he's Freese's age, he'll be a free agent.
Sigh.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
pretty sure we'll wrap him up on a buy-out deal soon
we really ought to.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 6:13 AM EST up reply actions
(Preliminary) Ode to David Freese
There once was a player named Freese
His value? Everyone disagrees.
To live up to the talks
He’ll need to draw some more walks
And play third base with relative ease.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
by IHeartBoog on Feb 4, 2010 3:07 PM EST reply actions 11 recs
There Once Was a Third-Sacker named Tasty...
upon whom our judgment is hasty
let’s see what he does
and forget all the buzz
all of this speculation is waste-y
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
by The MooCow on Feb 4, 2010 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 8 recs
on third base there once stood a thurston
whose value was from-bad-to-worston
who cares that it’s freese?
now we easily please
for we’re free from the perston named thurston
by DanUpBaby on Feb 4, 2010 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 11 recs
You're all
wrecked!
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
Limericks are the highest form of literary expression
Up where the corner is hot
our previous baseman was not
But there’s no time for mopin’
Now everyone’s hopin’
that Freese will be “Rolen” like Scott
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 4, 2010 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 14 recs
This is the best one by far.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 6:13 AM EST up reply actions
There was a lot of cheating in this limerick
But I will rec it anyway for the sentiment behind it. Thank god for anyone that’s not Thursty Joe.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
I like my limericks with as much cheating as possible
my goal is to leverage VEB into a job as an ogden nash impersonator.
My attempt.
Since the time of our Scott Rolen
Many at third have been patrollin
One guy named Mister Glaus
Now one new off the sauce
Will close to Brendan be strollin.
by WyoCardsFan on Feb 4, 2010 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
i've started a trend.
recs all around!
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
by IHeartBoog on Feb 4, 2010 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm most concerned about Freese
more than any of the other Redbirds. While he did fairly well in his short stay with the big club in 09, I just have a bad feeling that he won’t be very good for us this year.
Check out my sports blog!
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
SIGN FELIPE LOPEZ & JOHN SMOLTZ!
I have a good feeling about it
so I guess that cancels out
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
I just have kind of a bloated feeling
for whatever that’s worth.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 4, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
I have a bad feeling
Two against one. Neener neener?
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
Almost pitcher and catcher time
So, time to start reading again. Is Freese our assumed starter right now? Again, I’m fine with an absolutely average, cost controlled player as a stopgap. 7 league average players in the field + 1 Albert isn’t a bad team.
plus this year we have a full year of Holliday and no Thurston/Greene/Greene 3B hydra
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
I forget about Lego
I stopped recognizing him after the nut shot. Time to start recognizing the $15million man again.
hopefully no more droppy in playoff time
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
that jackass could at least have the courtesy to HR to get that first run on the board
Thats selfish baseball.
that series was almost as embarassing as the world series vs the red sox
except we should have stood a chance in this series.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
yup
looks like it’ll be Freese, some small chance Gotay might win the job I guess, or Craig or Mather but I think they view those two as outfielders/bench
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, Lopez would be a nice addition
but I don’t see him being that much better than Freese, unless Freese’ defense is very overrated, or he plays a good 3B
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
*Continues touting prediction that Gotay will win the 3B job*
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
Well,
I think most of us are hoping for only 6 league average players, plus one above average player, plus one hemi-demi-semi-god.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
Hemi-god?
That thing got a hemi?
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
would that mean half-god?
cuz that would be pretty accurate
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
pretty much.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions
Fun Jeopardy-themed post at the Yahoo baseball blog
There have been ten final questions with “baseball” in the category name. I missed #1 and #8, and had lucky guesses on a couple other ones.
Yeah, 5 was one of my lucky guesses (along with 6, although the "stole" clue was pretty obvious)
I knew they’d won in their two most recent cities (I won’t spoil it for anyone by mentioning them here), and for the only other teams I could think of that moved and won, I was pretty sure they had only moved once.
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 4, 2010 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
Missed #1
and was pissed at the hint on #8.
Really , how did you miss #8?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
After he gave a big hint in his comment on the first question,
I quit reading his comments until I had made all my guesses. But yeah, that was a pretty freakin’ huge hint he gave on #8 too.
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 4, 2010 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, #8 was the one I needed the hint on
I understand now, carry on.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Just to clarify, the big hint on #1 being that he was "just a bit familiar" with that team
He pretty regularly mentions where he’s from and what team he follows the most.
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 4, 2010 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
I missed only #2
and I can’t believe I missed it! Took a wild guess on #9.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
wait, look further into the baseball questions on the j reference site
“‘baseball for dummies’ was written by this former reds 2nd baseman and espn announcer”
my head hurts
Is it sad that I own this?
Bawwww
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
Gotta love the Big Lebowski reference in there...
In related news I only got 6 of them right… namely cause I focused on yank instead of pirate and didn’t really understand the pitcher question.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
As much as i liked King Felix's extension
thats how much i dislike verlander’s…older and i think he is an injury waiting to happen
i don’t have a tone of confidence in freese…hopefully he will prove me wrong
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
yeah, I didn't detect that in your tone about Freese
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
i have internet laryngitis
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
the idea of internet laryngitis made me think of a high school memory
this is pretty much out of the blue, but there was this one girl at my high school who actually faked having laryngitis for months. she was an odd character
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 7:39 PM EST up reply actions
not as crazy as the girl that was in my high school class that believed in dragons
and hissed at people like she was a breathing fire, she was in special classes after my freshman year.
damn, that's awesome!
you’re from the QC area too, right? heh
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 8:13 PM EST up reply actions
I'm in the QC
Bettendorf, IA grew up in Davenport, graduated from West.
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."
did she actually "see" flames coming out of her mouth?
because that’d be great – wish i could do it.
i know a guy faked amnesia after he stole hid dad’s car and totaled it, winding up in the hospital with head injuries. he kept it up for months until the threat of punishment was over. presumably thinking he couldn’t remember how big of douches they were and seeing a second chance, they started treating him much better – was interesting to observe this evolution.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I have no idea,but she would wear a dragon costume once in a while and
always draw pictures in class of dragons.
I'm so retarded that I was laughing over that sentence I wrote for like half a minute
just having some fun heh
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 7:34 PM EST up reply actions
you two need to hang out more often
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
Matt Holliday would like all of you to stop bashing his Creed love.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
why do good baseball players usually have really bad taste in music?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
Bad music sometimes is very good working out music.
And I assume they spend a lot of time working out.
Also maybe it’s the GOB keeping them from getting to close to being a GOB.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
yeah
it’s sort of like a role playing game, you get so many points to spend on your being and they spent all the points on being good at baseball is pretty much how I think of it
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
i once saw Pujols at a Nickleback concert
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 4, 2010 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
so you were at a Nickleback concert?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
nickelback can be imitated with yelling
The large version of that picture is kind of creepy.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
is that his wife?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Ugh
I can see his nostril hair! And he’s blocking the scenery!
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
He has something in his teeth
Clearly, his morph to a lego head is progressing well.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
Rockies are apparently mulling over signing
the Colonel. As a resident of Colorado, and semi-supporter of the “local” nine, I sincerely hope they pass.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 8:03 PM EST reply actions
yeah
what type of ERA would that be? like around 7 I’d guess
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
I bet his FIP wouldn't be a hair over 6.9
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
I like the Rockies too.
So I hope they pass as well.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
CG, I have to ask
is there a team you don’t like? Other than the small bears or pondscum (I would hope).
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
I like lots of teams, too.
No other Central Division teams, though. And the Cardinals are above everyone else.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
I only love the Cardinals.
I only like the Rockies. I can tolerate the Pirates, because Roberto Clemente was one of the best I ever saw, and because they are perenially awful. Every other team, I loathe.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 8:39 PM EST up reply actions
i'm pretty much the same
except i like the twins – a little more than the rockies, too.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I dislike the Rockies
I haven’t met a Rockies fan that I have liked.
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 4, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions
a handful in person
more over at the Rockies blog a Purple Urple
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 4, 2010 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
isn't there a rocks fan here?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Not sure I can call myself a "fan"
If they win, fine, as long as they lose to the Cardinals.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
/Raises drink to Eff
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
that's the name i was looking for
doc halladay’s catcher.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
the only other team I like is the White Sox and a big part of that is
because a lot white sox fans hate the cubs just as much as we do,so we can relate.
I love the Cards
I like the Indians, Rangers, Orioles
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
yeah, The Stros have always been pretty much bottom of my list
kinda hard to hate on them so much now they’re solidly on the Road to Suck for the next half decade or so, though…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 6:39 AM EST up reply actions
The Yankees, the Red Sox, the White Sox, the Astros, the Dodgers, the Phillies.
And I don’t really care that much for the Tigers.
The A’s have ugly uniforms, but other than that I don’t care.
Most of the other teams register no emotion except for sometimes pity (which is where the Mets are actually at for me).
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
i will always hate the pond-scum mets
right there with the cubs.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 4, 2010 8:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I hate the Mets
But I don’t hate them because of the “pond scum” days, when the Cards had a huge rivalry with the Mets. I didn’t follow baseball back then. I hate the Mets because of the 2000 NLCS.
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
any reason will suffice
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
YOU KNOW WHO I HATE
McCHEATER AND DEWALLETT
by Mister Eff on Feb 4, 2010 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
YES!
But I’m turning it off now because Evan’s done.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Your mom's watching the Jay Leno show
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Feb 4, 2010 11:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Ahahahahaaha
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
for the same money
say 3 – 3.5 mil, would you rather have branyan or floppy for a year?
looks like o-dog is about to be a twin. they should be good.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'm not certain either can play even a passable 3B
but if both could, I’d prefer floppy for his OBP in the 2 hole.
I would make the deal as insurance, it's probably a smarter and cheaper move
to sign a starter who won’t block freeze’s progression as much as floppy would.
But Lopez can also play 2B and SS in a pinch
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 4, 2010 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
And
he can spot Skip for his platoon rather than depending on Lugo (Vomits in mouth)
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
I want Floppy too, but we need to start promoting some of these minor league guys
so we can afford pujols when time is needed.
Floppy is more utility than a straight 3b for the Cards
Crede can’t even be relied on to beat Freese’s stats.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
Freese has more upside, but Crede is more likely to put up certain numbers.
that’s how I see it anyways.
Crede is more likely to put up certain numbers.
Yeah, like a 30% strikeout rate. He’s pretty reliable with that one…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 6:42 AM EST up reply actions
This is why I hate fangraph $ values.
Yes. Joe Crede literally sucks at baseball.
by Mister Eff on Feb 4, 2010 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If Joe Crde is a 2 WAR player
I might actually be a 1WAR!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Some people just suck
whether they have WAR value or not, they just plain suck. This is why I don’t like getting into arguments over WAR, because people just forget that sometimes people suck.
Suckedity, suck, suck, suck.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Indeed
at least you are catching on here
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
gdm is like you
I actually liked Thurston part of last year, when he was getting on base, but gdm continued to say he sucked. He was right!
by vivaelpujols on Feb 4, 2010 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
I know that these players all have some value
but there has to be a point when you decide if they are worth said value. Hell, Teveras (sp?) has value.
I actually want to enjoy some baseball this season, and I guaran-damn-tee that I will enjoy watching Greene more than Crede.
And I am just now trying to decide if you just gave me a compliment. I am used to you calling me a jerk.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Gah?
When do I ever call you a jerk.
Not to get too techical here, but any player who provides more value than the expected value of his replacement has value. That obviously depends on other factors like cost, and if it’s close enough, fan appeal.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 4, 2010 11:55 PM EST up reply actions
You do it with love, VEP, you do it with love.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I think one can make a very persuasive argument
that we have two (if not three) internal options who will be as good at 3B as Joe Crede. Ergo, his value to us is pretty much nada, even though he’s definitely well above replacement because of his glove.
Depth is all well and good but it becomes a situation of diminishing returns pretty quickly beyond your 1st replacement option.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 6:44 AM EST up reply actions
so somewhat below average bat with + glove
that is not a crappy player, it’s at the very least an average one.
yes, why pay for something we already have
I don’t get it.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
now you're changing the subject, the argument was over if Crede sucked or not.
and I have at least given my fair share of arguing the facts to say he’s at the very least average at what does.
Yes, he is average
I’ll give you that.
Give me a reason why we should pick up Crede when we can get his stats from the minor leagues.
He still sucks.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
personally
i’d rather have more bat and less glove off my bench.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Feb 4, 2010 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I still say he sucks.
He’s had as many 500 OPS seasons as he has had 800 OPS seasons plus he’s getting old.
and both those season he had less than 200PA
one he was injured in, and the other he was 23 with little experience and he only had 55 PA
Payer X
has a line of 254/304/444 and is on the wrong side of 30.
Do you want him for more than league min?
32 is closer to 30 than 40, so he's younger than you make him out to be
and yes, that’s a .748 OPS with plus defense.
Also
Crede has severe injury problems that are liable to catch up on his value anytime soon. His bat appears to be poised on the edge of a severe precipice and isn’t very good at the best of times.
He has major back problems and I think he’s had two surgeries in the last year. You have to think that has the potential to have a SEVERE negative impact on his hitting and fielding in future.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 6:48 AM EST up reply actions
the fact he's a 3B
with a bad back means he’s always one dive away from the DL.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Branyan is 34.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
Did you see my blockquote below
where he’s still seeking a 3-year deal worth $20-30 mil? Not that he’s gonna get it, but that’s a long way off from $1 mil.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
Crap
so it is.
/ignore
/erase posts
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
A .300 OBP with above average slugging and great defesne from a semi-premium position
Is a valuable player, worth about 8 mil on the open market. That’s not to say we should pay that much…
by vivaelpujols on Feb 4, 2010 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah dude
that market doesn’t exist and it never has. This is the problem with WAR. It’s not realistic with this shit.
It is!
Tango has literally gone through each free agent every since since like 2006 and analyzed why they are worth according to his projected WAR compared to how much they’ve been paid. Generally, players get what WAR says they should.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 4, 2010 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
You do realize Soriano signed his free agent contract 3 years ago
I doubt the Cubs would have made that deal if they knew he would be one of the worst players in baseball last year.
When Soriano signed, his deal was an overpay according to his expected production via WAR. That’s because he’s a slugger coming off of a 40-40 season, and the Cubs overrated that and ignored his lack of walks and other flaws.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
-0.7 WAR last season?
Ouch!!!!
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Feb 5, 2010 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
Let my try to simplify WAR for you
Projected WAR is just (offense + defense + position) over replacement level. It’s really the only way you should go about projecting a players worth (that doesn’t mean you have to use FanGraphs WAR, that’s just one implementation of the framework).
If you accept that a players WAR is how many wins that player projects for the team, that’s what you should be paying him by. There are market inefficiencies (like defense), so a guy like Crede will be paid less than his projected WAR; however, that doesn’t mean you should pay more for a slugger than a guy like Crede, given equal projected WAR.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 4, 2010 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
if you want to havea 70 win team
with a ~100M payroll, then yes, you play all of your players what they are worth.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
by SleepyCA on Feb 5, 2010 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Did I say that?
I specifically said there are market inefficiencies so that you can get players like that on the cheap (like Crede).
A player’s worth isn’t defined by what he is paid, it’s defined by his actual contributions to winning games.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
Which is exactly why
we should not use fangraphs stupid WAR value on judging what a player should be paid!
(I don’t think WAR is stupid and I get the projections. I just think their $ value system is really, really retarded. Unbelievably so.)
i'm with you
just never wanted to get clobbered for saying it.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
BTW, I hate a lot of things about FanGraphs
So I would probably not clobber anyone for dissing some of their stuff.
I do love the framework of WAR.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
the framework, fine.
i just think that every WAR is not equal – maybe the first is worth less, and then it escalates, and then it comes back down – something like that, without thinking about it too much. and i know that it makes no mathematical sense, but there has to be some context. why pay to win the division by 20 games when a couple will suffice?
if this makes no sense, i always have the drinking excuse.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I understand what you are saying
And a lot of people bring that up. However, if you look at the data, dollar per WAR is linear.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/12/wins_above_repl.php
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
i guess that's what i disagree with
glad to hear i’m not alone, though.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
The FanGraphs WAR system doesn't judge how much a player should be paid
That’s just what the asshole commenters there think.
It represents how much you would have to pay in free agency to get a player who provides as much value as said player.
Pujols last year was around 8 WAR. Going into last year, teams were paying about 4.5 mil per WAR. So to replace Pujols’ production in free agency, you would have to spend roughly 36 million.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:11 AM EST up reply actions
Again
I get it. It’s just wrong.
Not a knock on you, just on them. Maybe they need a new scoring system where they use actual examples of someone who produced 8 WAR and what they made doing it relative to their era if you want a realistic picture of what an 8 WAR player earns.
That's actually exactly what they do
Do you think they are just making these numbers up? They look at a free agents projected WAR and how much he gets paid. They do that for all free agents and average out the dollars per projected WAR in each offseason.
(Of course, there are no 8 WAR players in free agency ever, so they are just extrapolating for players that good)
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
But isn't it just another way to
compare players to each other and provide some sort of relative financial perspective?
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
Yeah
and it overestimates the shit out of everyone! If last years Colby Rasmus was worth $10M, I hate baseball.
Here is exactly what the system tries to do
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:23 AM EST up reply actions
lol
BTW, they just mentioned FAN Graphs Dot Com on the mlb network, during the hot stove bit… never heard anyone do that before.
Anyway, I find it hilarious that happened during this “discussion”, but otoh, i’m easily amused.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
i read alot of fangraphs
i just don’t like the WAR valuation (the framework is, like i said, fine). but some good analysis and writing there, though i used to like it more – maybe there’s been alot of turnover, as i don’t pay attention to the writers’ names.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I think there is a lot of groupthink
Or at the very least, lazy analysis.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
It’s kind of funny when people bring up groupthing about FanGraphs, because it couldn’t be further from the truth.
Nick, why don’t you send me a note about what you hate about FanGraphs and I’ll try to address your concerns.
I don't think the stats are groupthink David, they are by far the most accurate out there
I think that the commenters often partake in groupthink, and I think some of the front page analysis can get lazy at times.
I’ll send you a longer email.
FWIW, I agree with VEP here somewhat
some of the front page articles are unbelievably lazy.
There needs to be some editorial input because most of the writers clearly cannot edit their own material – MAJOR spelling and grammatical errors seem to predominate in a lot of articles (RJ is the worst offender for this, even though I generally really like his writing) and I agree that, for the most part, a lot of the articles lack content and can be prone to factual errors and laziness.
I think fewer articles would be a good idea, actually – either that, or have short articles for straightforward analytical things (like trades or free agent signings) and then maybe one longer analytical article per day on the front page.
I love the stats though. I think the only possible improvement would be to add lefty/righty splits, which are a big part of the game IMO and which seem to be ignored not just by the FG stats pages but by a lot of the front page articles too (I guess so as not to publicise BR).
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 7:53 AM EST up reply actions
That's a little unfair
The part about BR, FanGraphs is non-profit and links to other sites like THT and BtB all of the time.
Why not add platoon splits then?
I’ve never understood why they don’t do this.
Also, I find it hard to believe that the long-term plan for FG is as a completely non-profit endeavour. Pretty sure the advertising pays for the site (+ more?), and it’ll be interesting to see where they take it, eventually.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 4:53 AM EST up reply actions
with wrinkled noses.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
Joe Crede is much better with the bat than Greene
by vivaelpujols on Feb 4, 2010 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
but he is projected to be basically the same player
and he is 5 years younger and healthier.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Let's get some stuff straight here
Tyler Greene has a career .765 OPS in the minors. Crede has a career .748 OPS in the majors. Greene is 27, Crede is 32.
CHONE projects Crede to have a .733 OPS (.319 wOBA). CHONE projects Greene to have a .692 OPS (.311 wOBA).
That being said, Greene is probably as good with the glove and cheaper (although barely, given that Crede will likely get jack shit). I would be fine with either.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 4, 2010 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
Thank you
is Crede going to get any better? Probably not.
does Greene have more of a chance to do so? Probably so.
I am sick and tired of unneeded stopgaps.
and hell, I get confused on which projections people like using here.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Frank Thomas and Barry Bonds.
Both sides of the plate are covered and we draw the heat off of McGwire.
As long as they come at league minimum
I’m in.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 5, 2010 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
Neither one of them is the bat off the bench that we need though.
I am not saying Greene is a solution, I just can’t see how Crede is.
Am I so far off, is .008 points of wOBA really worth it?
If it came down to it, I’d rather see Greene get the PA.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
s'wat I'm sayin.
Crede is not a bat off the bench, and I certainly don’t see him doing better than Freese. If he is an upgrade – and that is an if – it’s a marginal upgrade.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
Freese is injured, we are stuck with Greene/Craig at 3b, this isn't the ideal
situation to be in, of course there’s also gotay.
I actually wouldn't mind that situation,
and I don’t think Freese will be injured.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
And didn't someone at the P-D
float the idea that Descalso may get a try-out at 3B?
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
I'd love to see him usurp Gotay's presumed spot
since I think he has to replace Skip for financial reasons in the next two years.
that would be a horrible idea though
he’s a bad second baseman, why on earth would he be any better at third?
he can only do so much, Descalso won't be a third baseman
because it would be like making skip a third baseman.
it's why last year Thurston/Barden started so many games
some guy who can provide a positive WAR will make me happy.
what about
that whole part about him playing the last few months of the season and being good at it?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
um
i’ll just pretend i know what that means and how that supports your claim the freese isn’t healthy
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
okay.
hey, check it out
david freese got into a car accident a year ago and hurt his foot. i think he’s healthy
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
That and I heard he had SARS.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
by spants on Feb 5, 2010 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You never comeback from SARS
Did they ever figure out what the eff SARS was?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
have there been other injuries?
i don’t see how one car wreck makes you injury-prone, unless you are accident-prone.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
ah, i see
incase the car accident turns out to be a recurring condition
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 5, 2010 12:38 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
that happened to a friend of mine once
everyone just assumed it was a one off thing, but now it’s practically a semi-annual thing that he breaks his wrist in a fender bender. sad, really
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
does he go to court with a neck brace
and claims he’s never going to live a normal life again, because then I’ve got some bad news for you.
if my brother were here
that SOB would be green
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I'd rather we gotay to
someone else.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 5, 2010 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
and we don't need a defensive replacement
for freeze (for anybody, actually). our bench needs to be able to hit.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
not so sure about jay.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
he would be a defensive sub/ pinch runner type
I don’t like the idea of rasmus getting hurt then everyone needs to shift to a harder position.
my problem is he bats lefty
like rasmus. and i don’t think we need a defensive replacement in the outfield.
come back to life, joey bombs!
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Why though?
I don’t think he has more upside than Crede – Crede’s actually had some really good offensive years in the majors, and Greene’s had one good offensive year in the minors. If they are about equal in value, and we would only have to pay like 800,000 for Crede, I couldn’t care less who plays.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:03 AM EST up reply actions
We look at things differently
I do like these stats, but I just don’t believe that they can really project several years down the line ( can they?). Crede would be lucky to be here 1 year, and we have Greene for 4 more, right? I think Greene is worth the risk, especially at league min.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I'm not even considering stats for this at all
I think it’s pretty clear that Greene and Crede are similar players. Crede is probably slightly better, and has a narrower range of expected performances given his experience in the majors.
I’m just saying, if I could have either Greene at .4 million next year or Crede at 1 million, I couldn’t care less who I had.
Actually, that brings up a point about playoff probability which I might take a look at in a future post.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
worth it?
there is no way he would get it in this market though, right?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I think we have a misunderstanding here
Tyler Greene projects to be worth x amount of wins to a team. Other players who projected to be worth x amount of wins to a team get paid y dollars.
Therefore, in a perfect world, where players were actually paid for there production rather than a world where Ryan Howard makes 10 million in his first year of arbitration, Tyler Greene would be worth y dollars.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
is that WAR dollar value
derived only from free agents?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i think that's a problem.
i don’t think the free-agent market should (or can accurately) define the value of each and every player.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
well
how exactly is the dollar value of anything supposed to defined if not by the amount of money someone is willing to pay for it
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
non-free agents are also signing contracts
they are also being paid.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
okay
and WAR dollar value measures what a player would be worth on the open market. not in their second year of arbitration or in their third pre-arb year
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
it doesn't matter that linececum is only going to
get a max of $13m this year, because the cardinals can’t go out and get him.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
okay!
are you reinforcing what i am saying or is someone confused?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
i don't believe i am confused.
i was trying to illustrate your point.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
ah okay
yeah, you’re absolutely right
i thought that you were using that to refute my point
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Yes
according to fangraphs, last years Cards starting 8 and final five in the rotation (so the bench and bullpen aren’t added into this) they were “worth” $205.5M. So the biggest payroll in the history of the national league would buy you a 91 win team.
Source:
Rasmus – 10.2
Ludwik – 8.1
Holliday – 25.6
Pujols – 38
Molina – 15.3
Shu – 5.4
Ryan – 12.8
DeRosa – 7.6
Carp – 25.1
Wain – 25.6
Pin- 21.5
Lohse – 3.7
Smoltz – 6.6
If you were to buy a 91 win team by only paying for free agents
With no cost controlled players or players who signed favorable extensions, than yes, it would probably cost you close to 200 million.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
What if you paid Jason Bay 12.8 million?
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:40 AM EST up reply actions
...is inappropriate?
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Feb 5, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
it's really not that hard to understand
if you were to buy all that talent on the free agent market, yes, it would probably be close to that
teams don’t pay that because they have club controlled players. next year will include 4-5 players out of 25 who were signed on the free agent market
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
understanding isn't the problem
agreeing is the issue. to say each WAR is worth 4.5 mil or whatever the number based solely on free agents skews that value, imo. it should be called FAWAR, in that case.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I agree
if it is going to be based on salary, it should be based on all salary.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I was just trying to figure out
where you people were hiding.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
Great....
another excuse to push back the Penny post.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
by RiverRat on Feb 5, 2010 12:47 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I know how it works
I just don’t like it
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Yeah
guys, we get it, the whole thing, we just think it’s flawed.
Markets which exist in a vacuum may be markets, but they’re not realistic.
but this isn't some theoretical amount
it’s based directly on how much actual free agents are being paid according to their production in the actual market
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
What is the point then?
What is the point of putting a real world dollar assessment on a player if it does not apply to the real world?
I've explained it multiple times
If you were to replace the production that a x player provide that year, you would have to pay y dollars on the open market.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
probably not
because he doesn’t have a track record and because he’s not a free agent.
3 wins above replacement on the open market would cost more than that, though
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
BUT IT DOESNT
I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.
Nobody gets paid what fangraphs says they should it is the definition of a flawed model.
They DO get paid what FanGraphs model says they should (on average)
That’s why the model exists, do you think they are just making stuff up?
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
It's based on actual free agent signings
So you are incorrect.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
I can prove nearly every one of their "values" wrong in the real world
and I’m the one that s wrong.
you're wrong
for thinking anyone is claiming it to be an exact science. and you’re wrong for claiming that it’s theoretical when it’s based on real life dollars paid to real life free agents
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Please, prove that everyone of their values were wrong
Or why don’t you just go through these threads instead.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/sabermetric_moves_of_the_off_season/
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/sabermetric_moves_of_the_2008_pre_season/
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/sabermetric_moves_of_the_2009_pre_season/
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/sabermetric_moves_of_the_2010_pre_season/
They were wrong on what every single Cardinal made in 2009.
And not really close on almost all of them.
You deal in projections, I deal in history.
We are clearly not going to agree here.
I think to make us happy
Cody, PJ, and VEP need to go throughout the entire FA class for every season since Fangraphs started this, and do the math for us.
it would be an awesome fanpost guys, awesome.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Tango already did that in the posts I linked to
and that is exactly what the fucking numbers on FanGraphs represent.
iam clearly messing with you there
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
list of cardinals
signed as free agents that weren’t injured last year
joel pineiro who had a career year
in ’08 his WAR$ and salary were pretty close
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
But not reflective of what actually happened.
Brendan Ryan’s doppelganger John MacDonald never made $10M when he hit FA.
He's been worth his contract in my eyes
but juuuuust barely.
Plus Seattle sucked the whole time, so what was the point in overpaying?
how was it an overpay
you just said said right there yourself with your own fingers that he was worth his contract
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
So you're saying
That Beltre got valued properly in the FA market, which Fangraphs Value attempts to model and that model agrees with you on that statement to a tee?
Not afraid to nitpick
Do you not agree that to replace the proudction he provided
You would have to pay, on average, 65 million?
No.
Not if you have a good farm system, good rule 5 drafts, good FA signings, etc. You may not get the SAME value back but you’ll get close for a hell of a lot less.
The monetary value supposes
that you’re replacing that talent with Free Agents.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
His contract was actually 64M
He was “barely worth his contract”……what am I missing?
Not afraid to nitpick
fangraphs doesn't say that!
the free agent market says that!
oh my god!
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Apparently you have a better calculater than I
add it up. I have no idea how fangraphs doesn’t blatenly say he’s worth more than he was paid. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=639&position=3B
FanGraphs says to replace Beltre's value in free agency you would have to pay 65 million dollars
That’s based on looking at actual free agents.
I just want to make two comments in the middle of this thread:
1) Anyone who says the threads are too off topic should be pointed to this 400 comment subthread on baseball valuation.
2) I love that calculator is misspelled in the middle of this back and forth. I don’t know why that entertains me so much but it seems fitting somehow.
Carry on.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
honestly
beltre was probably overvalued. did he sign as a free agent? i don’t think he did. he was signed under mariners control, so they probably valued him at more than he was actually worth. yet ended up paying him what he was genuinely going to be worth because they weren’t competing with other teams
i think the beltre/red sox deal is a better example
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Not really arguing that
I’m just saying without the contract year he would’ve been paid significantly less.
Okay
I want fangraphs to have a section that instead of saying Colby Rasmus was worth $10M last year, they say, here are the comps and a first year CF with those stats would have made $X. Moving forward, he would be worth $Y while cost controlled and $C in free agency.
The same algorithm should show that Brendan Ryan will get $Z in arb the next few years based on his comps and $Q in free agency.
You know, real world shit.
That measures a different thing than FanGraphs WAR values measure
So you don’t have a problem with FanGraphs WAR values, it’s just not measuring what you want it to measure.
My problem with FG Value
is it replicates a market that exists in a vacuum (where everyone is a free agent and are paid for what they did that year) and not the actual real world.
I have no idea why you’re not willing to agree to disagree on this. FA WAR $ is like the worst indicator of what actually happened ever, for all of it’s pluses, which are few.
but
wouldn’t a first year player in general have made $400K in ’09 pretty much regardless?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Randomly found
this gem tonite. Seems like a good place to share…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
What?
John McDonald never once had a season anywhere in the same ballpark as good as Ryan’s was last year.
Not afraid to nitpick
Back to the matter at hand
Joe Crede and FG stupid $ values.
Joe Crede was “worth” $8.6M last season. According to fangraphs, to replace his value on the free agent market, you’d have to spend $8.6M.
Or, you could just re-sign actual Joe Crede for five million less.
That is flawed!
And again
Because Crede was “worth” 8.6M last year does not mean that Crede will be worth 8.6M next year. It is a backwards looking metric.
Not afraid to nitpick
I don't know why you can't accept that it has limitations
It’s an estimate of past performance.
Not afraid to nitpick
It's not theoretical at all
It’s based upon the actual market. They didn’t just pull shit out of thin air.
Not afraid to nitpick
it’s what someone says his value was worth, not what he was actually paid. So it’s something which didn’t happen.
Oh my god
It was a guess as to what he was worth. Or rather, it is a guess as to what you’d have to pay to get 1.9 WAR.
It’s for friggin fun, was Adrian Beltre worth his contract? It helps answer that.
FIP is theoretical, it doesn’t measure what actually happened…..is that worthless?
Not afraid to nitpick
No, it's not worthless.
And neither is FG $ Value. It just attempts to represent a market whose conditions do not actually exist in the real world, which makes it a theoretical market, and one that is flawed in my opinion.
These boxes are small.
And FIP attempts to theoretically model the real world, which makes it a theoretical metric with lots of flaws. It’s not that hard to say “FIP doesn’t work so well with Tom Glavine or Javier Vazquez” just as it’s not that hard to say “$FG doesn’t work so well with AllGloveNoHit players”
Not afraid to nitpick
It's just like anyone's salary.
Almost no one is paid purely by performance. We all outperform or underperform our salaries.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
I still don't think you really get it, but I'll trust you
Anyway, I’ve been wanting to do a WAR post for a while now.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:47 AM EST up reply actions
oh
because tim lincecum was worth $500K last year. i see why it’s relevant to include that kind of data. team controlled players are not paid what they are worth. it’s kind of absurd to say otherwise
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Answer my question please
Would you pay Jason Bay significantly more than Boog if both were free agents.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:48 AM EST up reply actions
Honestly,
no. Boog plays stellar defense at a premium position.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
Right, if you accept that Boog ~ Bay in terms of value
Why would you pay more for Bay?
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:50 AM EST up reply actions
I like WAR,
and I don’t have a beef with how Fangraphs does things. I find it an interesting way to put things into context.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
I'd rather have Manny than either of 'em
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Feb 5, 2010 12:53 AM EST up reply actions
I would not overpay for wither.
Hey, Ryan, you;re a dime a dozen not hit SS. I’ll give you a Mil. Bay, you’re a no glove LF that is getting old. Here’s 3M. Don’t like it, I’ll move on.
i don't see
how you’re going to build a team offering 3 win players 1-3 mil dollars
i also don’t see how brendan ryan (the best defensive SS in baseball) is a dime a dozen
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
everett
might be slightly better. about 3 runs according to UZR/150
wilson is a little above average and janish hasn’t even logged 1000 innings there
i guess i should have braced myself for semantics, but my point is that +15 runs with a glove is a pretty fucking good SS
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
i'm a fan of bartlett
not saying he’s got more leather than boog. just wanted to include him.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i think his production was worth that
and i think if he were a consistent 3 WAR player, he wouldn’t have much of a problem being paid that in the free agent market with multiple teams bidding for his services
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I don't think so
Defense is still highly undervalued. I would say that to get the production that Ryan would provide, you would need to pay about 12 million on average… if he was a 3 WAR player.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:50 AM EST up reply actions
you don't think his production was worth that,
but you do?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
His production was worth that
But you wouldn’t have to pay him that because of the market inefficiency surrounding defense.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
guys that re-up
when not under club control – these contract extensions don’t count in WAR. and some of those cost-controlled contracts would balance out the free-agent mega-deals.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Well those cost controlled deals aren't made in the open market
So they can’t be representative of what a player like that actually costs.
It’s economics people!
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:53 AM EST up reply actions
That's my point as well
and does fangraphs take into account the FA that are overpaid for their value, when they are doing these calculations?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
you;re saying
that FAs are inherently overpaid or that some free agents are overpaid?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Some free agents are overpaid
Free agents as a whole may be overpaid, I don’t know. I don’t have a point of reference.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
no
but since i already have his FGs page open, matt holliday
’09 WAR$ – $25.6
’10 salary – $17
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
personally, i don't think
matt holliday is underpaid. yes, according to some arbitrary definition on fangraphs – but not in real life.
i can come up with a definition by which he is overpaid. i think it’s called common sense.
hey, just having a little fun.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i don't think
you know what arbitrary means!
do i want to pay matt holliday $25MM? no
but based on the average dollar per win paid on the free agent market that is what the market dictates him to have been worth
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
my parents tell me
that arbitrary was my first spoken word.
it’s like the productive-out debate. redefine what a productive out is and the results would show that it exists.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
He'd be underpaid on a 1 year deal yes
He’s almost certainly going to be worth 18M in 2010, the issue is that the security of a 7 year deal (will he be worth 18M 7 years from now?) drags down the AAV. If he were willing to go year to year and stayed healthy and productive, he’d get a lot, lot more than 18M a year IMO.
Not afraid to nitpick
most projection systems
put the holliday right around market value for the duration
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Yes, it also takes into account free agents who are underpaid for their value (like Gabe Gross or someone)
In theory, it should even out.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
thank you
so does it take into account extensions like Carp’s latest one, even though he did not hit the FA market?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
back when he signed it
or is it ignoring this whole class of contracts?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I understand the basics of it
I just think it is flawed for these reasons.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I agree that "worth" is a bad term for it
I’ve said this earlier, but the WAR$ on FanGraphs can be defined like this:
How much money you would have to spend in free agency to replace the production of a given player
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
Indeed
And it’s also the FAs being “worth” the marginal wins they provide. They get paid for wins 86-90 basically but it’s the arb/pre-arb guys who are essentially getting paid for 40-85.
I may have made no sense in this post.
Not afraid to nitpick
I get you
But I think it’s been shown that teams on the playoff bubble don’t pay higher dollar per win totals.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:53 AM EST up reply actions
Well right
Because a lesser team still has to compete with the playoff bubble teams to win over a player’s services in the market. If anything the lesser teams probably have to pay even more of a premium to lure a player to a non-playoff type team.
It’s why the Blues had to sign Jay McKee to 4M a year and Kariya to 6M.
Not afraid to nitpick
hey, if the market is being unfair to them
then they should use the money on the draft and overslot every pick, if they do this for four years they should be in the clear.
Oh yeah
I don’t see why some bottom feeder team doesn’t go and sign like a 25M draft class. They’d instantly turn around their future. There’s always David Prices and Kyle Gibsons and Matt LaPortas who are signable for the right price.
Not afraid to nitpick
but there are stars
like apu.
you don’t think you can sign 8 1WAR players on the market for far less than one albert pujols?
this is my problem with the definition.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Again, I understand what you are saying
in theory, an 8 WAR player should be paid more than two 4 WAR players; however, that just isn’t the case in free agency.
Actually, an 8 WAR player gives you more bang for your buck, but 2 4 WAR players distribute risk more evenly.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2010 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
I get it
I just don’t always get it. Meh.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Is Wayne Brady going to have to murder a GM?
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
by spants on Feb 5, 2010 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
wow@1000 non-nested comments in a row
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
That skit was hilarious by the way.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
at SS, maybe.
Anecdotally, it seems like good-defending SS don’t translate that well to 3B. Though I could be wrong, as always.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
Russell Branyan has a pretty damn good bat
He is the best hitter remaining on the market.
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 4, 2010 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
Damon, Dye, and Delgado
have a better track record than Branyan(hitting), it would be a smarter bet to buy low on one of those three first, as long as we’re not talking about defense(DH).
damn you CHONE, damn you!!!!!
I still wouldn’t sign Branyan as a third baseman though, considering his injury problems.
Branyan is an injury risk for sure
But has potential to be a .900 to 1.000 OPS bat. No one in the market can get anywhere near that kind of potential.
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 4, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, I don't really buy that
He’s never been a great hitter
by vivaelpujols on Feb 4, 2010 11:25 PM EST up reply actions
zomg floppsters
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
This is over at Rotoworld today.
A baseball source told Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com that free agent first baseman Russell Branyan was seeking a three-year deal “somewhere between $20 million and $30 million.”
It’s no wonder he’s still out of a job. Branyan, 34, batted .251/.347/.520 with a career-high 31 home runs and 76 RBI with the Mariners last season, productive numbers by any measure, but he may end up having to settle for a one-year, incentive-laden contract. The Marlins have been linked to Branyan this week, although he wouldn’t be guaranteed a starting gig there.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
I could go either way
Probably the flopster, as he’s a good shot to be at least a type B next year. I really like Branyan too, though. I guess Floppy’s a better fit for our needs.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 6:41 AM EST up reply actions
Yo, diggity-DanUp
Do you know where we can find the archived audio of your recent radio appearance?
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
KMOX last Thursday in the 7 O'Clock hour.
I was driving to McGurks and got out like ten minutes before he was supposed ot come on. I was kind of upset I missed it.
Then I got drunk and forgot until right now.
Try this
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
yeah?
HOW BOUT YOU CALL ME A STRANGE DEMOGRAPHIC TO MY FACE
thought so
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I kept expecting to hear,
JOHN SMOLTZ yelled randomly in the background while they were talking about pitchers.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
BEN SHEETS
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
Bravo DanUp!
A well-executed interview. I don’t think the host knew who Charlie Zink was.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
OT: Warning potential handegg content
Am I the only person who finds this completely ricockulous?
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
That should be illegal.
Where the hell is the NCAA when you need them?
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
going on forever in basketball
though it’s pretty new to football.
bobby knight recruited damon bailey in junior high.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
shouldn't be illegal
but OTOH, the school should be forced to start the kid for a year if he commits and they accept.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
lane kiffin is the coach at usc?
that is ricockulous. and, wow, i’ve really missed some stuff. where is pete carroll? i suppose he ran to the nfl before all the violations hit the fan.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
did you really miss all that?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
yes
i was traveling sports-free. missed the holliday signing, that kukich (?) signing, as well as many more, including aroldis chapman.
that link above to sickels top 20 cards prospects gives one some optimism – at least this one.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I saw that.
That is… ridiculous. That doesn’t even begin to cover it actually.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Pete Carroll is the new Seahawks coach, I believe.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 11:50 PM EST reply actions
*
/reply fail
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 11:51 PM EST reply actions
AARRGGHH!
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
Almost as big of one as y...
Yuniesky Betancourt.
Jebus, how in the hell did I actually know how to spell his name?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
it was probably my proudest moment of the night , here on VEB
and you had to go and taint it!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Seeing this picture
begs the question… can women be douches?
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
RYAN BRAUN IS ANGERED.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 8:11 AM EST up reply actions
Can I just say that people are going to wake up tomorrow and be like Look at all of those comments!
They were obviously talking about dating or music. But, no, y’all have been talking about baseball. Nicely done.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Hell I cam back from a 2 hour trip to the gym
and wondered what the hell happened. Then just z’ed through the part where you guys went all pension plan puppets on me… Hope I didn’t miss anything of import in there…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
This thread is to VEP
as to what a bacon, nic cage, I hate ohio thread would be to gdm. Just everyone poking him, patting him, getting involved, in bed with everyone free for all.
Here comes a synergy of all this
The GF just asked what Luke Hochevar’s FIP was. I have never been so happy in my life. I don’t know what this says about my life, but whatever.
Not afraid to nitpick
Dayton, you've just been topped by a blonde who is borderline mathematically retarded, your response?
Not afraid to nitpick
I think that facial expression is probably his response to most things
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
Derp
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Feb 5, 2010 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm really asking nd I'm sure I could look it up but I'm tired and lazy.
could someone tell me in a way I would understand (so probably joker’s GF’s level) what FIP measures?
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
FIP
Attempts to separate a pitcher’s luck and defense from his pitching ability. It uses Ks, BBs, and HRs to form a number that is what a pitcher’s ERA “should” have been given neutral luck and defense.
Not afraid to nitpick
Easy intuitive example
A pitcher who is pitching in front of the Mariners (Awesome Defense) will have a better ERA than if the same pitcher were to pitch in front of the Royals (Terrible Defense). This change in ERA has nothing to do with how well the guy pitches but rather his teammates around him changing.
FIP is trying to isolate what the pitcher is doing by himself. Its components—-HRs, Ks, BBs—-are not affected by defense.
Not afraid to nitpick
He looked pretty good... wait.
I guess you maybe weren’t referring to that.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Right
But think how much better he would look in a Cardinals Uniform than he did in the Royals Uniform.
Not afraid to nitpick
I don't know the blue really brings out his eyes.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Wrong answer
Adam Wainwright starting Game 3 of the playoffs would be the sexiest thing in history.
Not afraid to nitpick
Well the contrast with the red and blue may work too.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
That would be scary.
It might intimidate hitters though.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Imagine a pitcher staring in with red eyes...
I’d crap myself…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
nike makes sport contacts
the eyes are orangey-red.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
FIP *attempts*
To measure what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if batters performance on balls in play were assumed to be at the league average level and timing was taken out of the equation.
The reason that we do this, is that it’s been shown that a pitcher doesn’t have much control over whether or not balls in play goes for hits or not (they obviously have some control, but less than they do over other stats). It turns out that FIP is more predictive of future ERA than ERA is.
BABIP
measures part of the luck aspect of hitters. more is involved, like LD/FB/GB%
plus batters are more like to sustain a BABIP outside of the average range than a pitcher based on being exceptionally bad/good hitters
there isn’t really and defense independent offensive metric that i’m aware of
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
you'd need hitFX
things like LD/FB/GB% aren’t cast-iron either.
Wanna bet that Albert Pujols has a considerably higher BA and SLG on his flyballs than Brendan Ryan does? Because not every hard-hit ball is categorised as a LD (and, indeed, they’re categorised differently from stadium-to-stadium), not every GB or FB is created equal.
I guess you’ve also got to take the speed of the hitter into account – Colby Rasmus will reach first base on a groundball that would be an auto out for Yadi. So I suppose we need hitFX + a decent measure of speed to completely take “luck” out of the equation for hitters. Then we’ve pretty much solved baseball. NEXT!
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 8:16 AM EST up reply actions
exactly
players who hit the ball hella hard are going to have better results on ALL their batted balls than ones who don’t, so you can’t really accurately estimate “true” BABIP (at least, not as well as looking at several seasons of real data) by looking at their batted ball profile.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 4:56 AM EST up reply actions
it's supposed to be
what the pitcher’s ERA would have been with neutral luck on balls in play. or with a completely homogeneous defense behind him
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
i'm gonna put this down here
are you guys saying that FG’s WAR$ doesn’t accurately represent the kind of revenue that a certain production level brings into an organization?
because there is truth to that
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
i know
i’m just trying to figure out why people disagree with a system that basically averages the dollars per WAR given to free agents in a given year
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I don;t think Rasmus or Ryan were worth $10M last year,
and those are two obvious examples of my FG $ sucks.
Carlos Silva(Salary-value)+Colby Rasmus(Salary-value)=0
(10M-0.4M)+(0.4M-10M)=0
It’s an average. Carlos Silva was not worth $10M, Colby Rasmus was.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
that didn't really answer my question
how do you define “worth”?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
love that one
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
You want me to fuck it or something?
by Mister Eff on Feb 5, 2010 2:30 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I just put on the Curtis Mayfield
check back in in the morning.
by Mister Eff on Feb 5, 2010 2:36 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sad to see that Solomon Grundy has to get rid of his wheels.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I memorized an updated version of that years and years ago
Solomon Grundy walked on Monday
Rode on Tuesday
Motored Wednesday
Planed Thursday
Rocketed Friday
Space shipped Saturday
Time Machined Sunday
Where is the end for Solomon Grundy?
Don’t know where I saw this, but it’s been in my head for close to 40 years.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 5, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
Aaaand google has the answer
“Space Child’s Mother Goose”, printed in 1956.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 5, 2010 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
Is the driver's seat also a swivel bucket seat?
I feel like that can’t be legal.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
I'm just saying if Blake does indeed buy this car he may need to fix that.
Unless he also doesn’t care.
Also because he is obviously buying this car.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
I effing love curling
I’m being totally honest here. I love watching it and trying to figure out what the hell is going on… maybe I should watch cricket. I hear there are like 4 people who know the rules and understand that game…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
I like curling for about 5 minutes and then I'm bored again.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Figure skating brings up a point I like to start arguments about
Can anything that is judged like figure skating or gymnastics be considered a sport, or just an athletic skill?
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
I say no.
But then people say I am belittling it and that I can’t possibly like it that much.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
No
A sport has offense and defense. Everything else is an activity or a game. This doesn’t belittle activities or games, but they are not sports. Sorry golf, I love you, but you are no more than long distance beer pong.
Not afraid to nitpick
I've never heard the offense and defense argument
but I really like it. I think I’m going to steal that next time I get into a discussion about this. It works much better than ‘I know a sport when I see one’
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
I've always used an objective winner and loser.
They usually pull out something about refs and umpires at that point. But usually that argument falls apart when the argument continues. I try to tell them that I am in no way saying this makes their activity any less difficult but they can’t seem to get that.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
In fairness
NFL games feel like the go on forever so there’s that…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
by ducttape16 on Feb 5, 2010 2:07 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
TV rights
MMA started out with no time limits—-it was either submit or get knocked out, but constructing a TV schedule around that system is impossible. Baseball by its nature provides enough opportunities for commercials.
Not afraid to nitpick
that ole abner!
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Feel free
If my mark on the world is getting the definition of sports to be “an event that requires athleticism and skill as well as involving both offense and defense”, I will have led a happy life.
The first statement eliminates NASCAR via “athleticism” and offense/defense gets rid of a bunch of marginal shit like skateboarding and synchronized swimming. This is not to say that track sprinters are not insanely athletic, they just aren’t playing a sport. You don’t play “let’s run fast”, you do it.
Not afraid to nitpick
I don't know about NASCAR
not having athleticism… there’s a certain skill set that is required to race at high speeds and keep it out of the wall. Quick twitch, endurance to sit in a hot car for hours on end. Not saying you have to be in Usain Bolt shape to do it, but there are athletic skills involved in it. That being said not claiming it’s a sport. Just defending my redneck heritage. Speaking of which BUD SHOOTOUT SATURDAY NITE!!!! Get ready for some door handle to door handle racing.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
If you tear your ACL and skip surgery to drive in a race, it's not a sport.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
Let the record show
Hines Ward doesn’t have an ACL… They’re overrated.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
But he had to have surgery on that before he could play, right?
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
I think he had it removed when he was 12
or maybe was just born without one… point being everyone who “blows out an ACL” is being a pansy… it’s obviously overrated.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
I just find it funny the man doesn't have a ligament
that has been made so much of over the years.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
Your body can deal with not having them
If you slowly get yourself into that situation ala DeJuan Blair. The other muscles/ligaments can compensate eventually, but if your body one moment has an ACL for stabilization and then it does not, you can’t play a sport for awhile.
Not afraid to nitpick
From what I gather
If you tear it all the way, it doesn’t hurt after the initial pop and you think you can walk right after, but if you were to try to walk without support you’d blow out the rest of your knee and muscles. Anyone blow an ACL clean in half?
Not afraid to nitpick
...
He’ll never play golf again, because his weight displacement goes back, all his weight is on his right foot, and he’ll push everything off to the right. He’ll never come through on anything. He’ll quit the game.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
by RiverRat on Feb 5, 2010 2:29 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't remember that line, and I just watched that movie.
Damn.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
It was actually about cutting
Smails’ hamstring, but it worked better cutting that part out.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
oh, for cryin out loud spants!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I don't have that boy skill of memorizing movies the
first time they seem them.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
to be fair
I’ve probably seen that movie at least 50 times. I’ll pull out the ol’ DVD and watch it at least 2 or 3 times a year. And I don’t even wanna think about how many times I have stopped to watch it on the telley.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I know it's important
I just like making the joke…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
No
There is no athleticism. You don’t have to be strong, you don’t have to be fast, you don’t have to be explosive. A 12 year old child can turn a steering wheel for 3 hours. He can’t turn it accurately or as skillfully as a real driver, but the physical limitations are non-existent. There has never been a description of a NASCAR driver as having his athleticism set him apart from the rest of the drivers.
Sitting in a hot box playing video games for 4 straight hours requires the same amount of athleticism as NASCAR. I am not an athlete.
Not afraid to nitpick
There is a fair amount of upper body strength
required in any form of auto racing. As rat said go drive a kart for an hour and tell me how you feel the next morning. Also in road course racing there’s a lot of hand eye foot coordination required.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
There's a ton of eye thumb coordination in my domination of NHL10
And if you drive for 10 hours on a straight highway, you feel tired and terrible getting out of that car. And it takes a lot of mental focus to not drift into oncoming traffic. I wasn’t being athletic while driving to Columbus Ohio on 2 hours sleep and a hangover even though my body said it was difficult. Difficulty is not athleticism in any way shape or form.
Not afraid to nitpick
There's a fair amount of upper body strength required for throwing clay.
And if I were to win a clay bowl-making competition, does it make it a sport since I used muscles, technique and hand-eye coordination?
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
I wasn't defending it as a sport
just saying there was an athletic skill set involved. Muscular strength and reaction/coordination are athletic skills in my opinion… that’s all I was trying to get across. I’m now getting out of this rabbit hole.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
The whole discussion was about sports v. non-sports,
so you can see why I thought you were defending it as a sport. No matter. I am so going to learn to throw clay and I will beat you all!
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
Joey Logano was racing several hundred lap races
At age 8 apparently.
No 8 year old can throw 95 mph, hit a 500 foot home run, run a 4.2 40, bench 600 pounds, shoot a 100 mph slap shot or do any other feat of what would be called “athleticism” at as high a level as it gets in professional sports. Aside from Bryce Harper that is.
It’s called power steering.
Not afraid to nitpick
bryce harper
haha. i was going to write that till i got to your line.
hey, he hit a dinger the other day.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
if you can get hundreds of thousands of people to pay $$$ to watch you do it
not only will it be considered a sport, but you’ll get a movie about it starring Will Ferrell.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
I am not a Nascar fan, I don't watch nor care about it,
and do not take this to say it’s a sport, but if you ever have a chance, go to a real good go kart track….do about 60 laps and talk to me the next day.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
What about swimming?
Just swimming. There really isn’t a defense in a swimming. But I think it’s still a sport. There is an objective winner. A judge didn’t sit over on the side and say I like how that person’s butterfly looks better than that person’s they win! That’s my problem with calling figure skating etc. a sport.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
It's an athletic component
You don’t go play swimming. You do it.
More importantly, it’s a singular thing: if someone is faster than you, there’s not really shit you can do to win. That takes all the intrigue out of the deal. And from a philosophical standpoint, you can’t include swimming and exclude the Double Stuff Racing League.
Not afraid to nitpick
it's an athletic competition
i think you meant. anyway, i agree with you on all this. water polo is a sport – marco polo is not.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I know.
I don’t think NASCAR should be excluded from sport. That kind of takes away any credibility you have when you tell people just because I don’t think your activity is a sport doesn’t mean it isn’t respectable and that not being sport makes it any less respectable when you made your definition of sport to exclude NASCAR because you don’t like it. If that makes any sense.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
nope
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Well obviously we're not going to agree.
I just think the most important thing is the objective winner component.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
just messin' with your last sentence
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
This is all semantics, but I use the terms differently
sport => essential athletic component, and competition (not necessarily interaction)
game => interaction and strategy (offense and defense as one instantiation)
I’d argue that golf, track, etc are sports but not games.
Baseball, tennis, etc are sports and games.
Poker is a game, but not a sport.
by brackenthebox on Feb 5, 2010 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with this.
I still think there is something to be said for objectivity in sports though.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
monk's supposed to do a fanpost......
from what I gather, it lasts any where from a week to a month, and it ends suddenly.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
You're getting it confused with Tantric sex.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 8:20 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i love it too
no idea why, but i think it’s because i’m amazed and fascinated in a why-are-they-doing-that sort of way.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
In 02 I was in college
and me and the roommate would sit in front of the TV trying to figure out what the hell was going on. We never really figured it out… Still I love watching it.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
shuffle board on ice
that’s pretty much what i get out of it.I just get a kick out of drinking whiskey and watching people sweep an ice rink.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
that's why the commentators blow me away too
you can tell they know what the fuck is going on. they even have scouting reports on these people.
i wish the jamaicans would field a curling team.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I love on beat the streak
when they put curling up… They might as well ask you pick the next coin flip and trust them on the honor system…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
I know nothing about curling, but really, it's pretty straightforward, isn't it?
I can’t see how it can confuse anyone.
They have to throw the stones down a rink and get them nearest the middle of a big circle. The two teams take it in turns to throw the stones, whoever gets nearest the middle wins the game (or whatever it’s called) and gets a point. You may get a second or third point for having the 2nd or 3rd nearest stone, as well, I can’t remember, but that’s hardly fucking complicated, is it?
Oh yeah, they brush the ice with some brooms in an attempt to smooth it out and make the stones travel further, as and when required, although I can’t imagine that makes a huge amount of difference.
First team to get a certain number of points wins.
Isn’t that it? Sounds pretty damn simple to me.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 8:26 AM EST up reply actions
Sounds like shuffleboard on ice
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Feb 5, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
that's a cold harsh way to put it
of course, you’re a scientist, but thanks for ruining the intrigue, monk.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'm not merely a scientist, but a misanthrope too...
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 8, 2010 4:58 AM EST up reply actions
maybe I should watch cricket. I hear there are like 4 people who know the rules and understand that game…
High time I did that fanpost…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 5, 2010 8:18 AM EST up reply actions