Spring Surprises, Circa 2010
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 3:30 AM EST
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Yes, it's that time of year again, when the light at the end of the offseason tunnel begins to grow eversoslightly brighter. The wait from endseason to Pitchers and Catchers Report Day is now measured in mere days, rather than the weeks and months we've walked down already. It's February, and that means baseball is just around the corner.
It also means this is the time of year we all begin to look a bit closer at the roster and construct elabourate fantasies of MVP performances from previously unknown quarters. And each year there are seemingly dozens of players willing to add fuel to that fire with Hall of Fame Marches. (See also Schumaker, Skip) Of course, April proves the cruelest month for most of these split squad superstars as the games get serious and their joyrides come to an end.
But still, there is fun to be had in watching, and dreaming of what might be if this Bo Hart fellow really is as good as he looks.
So that's what we're going to do this week. I've done this each of the last two years, and unlike my colleague Dan, I enjoye diving surprises from the spring training roster. (I'm also aware that's not exactly what he meant when he penned that statement, but it works for me to twist his words to my own nefarious purposes.) Thus, I shall continue the annual tradition of asking all of you to predict for me the players who will make the biggest splashes in spring training.
This is what I want: one position player and one pitcher who will come into camp (they may or may not be in the Best Shape of Their Lives; that's up to you), and suddenly just jump onto the tips of everyone's tongues. It could be a major leaguer already, a minor league guy (the most likely scenario, of course), or it could be the one groundskeeper who's clearly been working on his lawn-care techniques all winter. (I'll let you decide for yourself if that's a eupemism or not.) This does not have to be a player who even makes the major league roster; Francisco Samuel was one of the camp darlings last year and never sniffed MLB playing time. No, I just want the players who everyone is going to be talking about come, say, the middle of March.
I promise to keep some sort of track of these, and to occasionally check back both during spring training and perhaps a bit later, say mid-season or so, and see how we all did. There will be a fabulous (read: imaginary), prize for the person or people who do the best in this endeavour.
For reference, here are the previous iterations of the Spring Surprise Game:
I'll give you my own 2010 picks after the jump.
Pitcher - I'm going to play it safe on this one and go for the easiest demographic: hard-throwing reliever. I considered going Rich Hill just to fuck with everybody, but decided against it at the last. So, I'm going with Fernando Salas. The Cards have two Latin relievers with tremendous stuff right now who I really love, Salas and Eduardo Sanchez, and long-term I'm actually higher on Sanchez. However, in the shorter tem, I think Sanchez's enormous workload last year (and winter ball as well), will hurt him a bit and he won't impress this particular spring. His time will come, but his time is not March of 2010.
Salas, on the other hand, had a huge breakout season in 2008 (he struck out 100 hitters in 74 innings, vs only 16 walks), then struggled with injuries for most of '09. He did pitch quite well in a very limited time in Springfield, then moved up to Memphis and saw his numbers take a turn downward in his first taste of Triple A. He's pitched quite well in winter ball, but it's tough to infer what, if anything, that means. (Other than the fact he is apparently healthy enough to be on the field, that is.)
When Salas is right, he features a mid-90s fastball that tops out about 96 and a hard curve that he locates only sporadically. Still, the quality of his stuff is undeniable, and I think a fully healthy Salas coming off a year in which he rested more than he threw is primed to make some serious noise when camp begins.
Position Player - This one was a whole lot tougher for me, largely because I don't see a ton of surprises among the positional ranks. I fully expect Allen Craig to come in and hit well enough to make the team as a backup outfielder. I expect David Freese to come in reeking of booze and proceed to play a perfectly acceptable third base to earn a starting spot. (I know, that's not funny. I'm sorry.) I expect Colby to take a huge leap forward - much more than the projections say - and move toward being the player we all expected him to be based on his early 2009 performance. I expect all those things, and I don't think any of them would be very surprising at all.
I considered Joey Bombs coming in like a house on fire, but I'm still not convinced his wrist is healthy. If it is, I think he makes the squad and we all stop worrying about who's going to play center field on days when Colby needs a day off, but I'm just not at all confident that's going to be the case.
So my spring surprise on the position side is probably going to be a bit surprising. I choose Brendan Ryan.
That's right, Brendan Ryan. The guy who shocked everybody last year with his Ozzie impression and passable offense. I'm going to predict his time in Dinger Camp with McGwire pays off in a big way, and Ryan comes in with a much, much better approach at the plate. I think his head moves less. I think his body flails around less. I think he takes a pitch more often than not. And wonder of wonders, I think he even shows a little bit of pop. I also think he shows up with 45 pounds of new muscle mysteriously bulging everywhere and shreds his uniform like the Incredible Hulk the first day of camp, but I think that probably falls under the Best Shape of His Life. Right?
So those are my guys. Salas on the pitching side wowing everyone with his arm and Boog on the hitting side wowing everyone with his newfound calm at the plate. Who you got?
The Baron's Playlist for the 3rd of February, 2010
"Queen Bitch" - David Bowie
"Knives Out" - Radiohead
"Pale Blue Eyes" - the Velvet Underground
"Psycho Killer" - Talking Heads
"Silent Shout" - The Knife
"Stab" - Built to Spill
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Ozzie impression?
I thought it was De Niro?
Also, Psycho Killer = Awesome. Thank you for reminding me.
"And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who would attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And you will know my name is ALBERT when I lay my vengeance upon thee." -The Bible
Speaking of... there was a...
BA Talking Heads Cover Band in St. Louis last weekend…
http://www.myspace.com/thismustbetheband
Brenden Ryan is my hero...
Is it just me
or is there a certain person we all may know who is the subject of that dedication???
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
No freakin' way...
…I had WinAmp on shuffle and Pale Blue Eyes started right as I clicked the article…
…Sho ‘nuff, it’s on the day’s playlist.
It’s the little things in life…
Awesome.
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
I saw several cases of Haas avocados at Costco the other day.
I had half a mind to stab the sh*t out of them.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
it's primetime for avocados
effers.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
My god,
how did they ever find pants that fit?
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 9 recs
Huh.
Well there’s something you don’t see everyday.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
I want to know why he had that link handy
On second thought…no, I do not want to know why.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
in all the depictions I have seen show
them in kilt like skirts, so now I know why
Я виключаю ти, сука
I love that I just got to hear the then-sitting President of the United States
use the word “bunghole”
somehow I doubt I will ever quite get over that
and that was before beavis made it cool.
fantastic.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
LBJ is from Texas
Beavis is from Texas
Hmmmmmm
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Feb 4, 2010 10:36 AM EST up reply actions
Or perhaps
they are both big Shakespeare fans???
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
I'm curious...
Is anyone else having a really bad time with the site the past couple hours? Both the old and revised versions of this article have now been published, and both have shown up just in the course of me loading the main page to look it over and see how it is. Plus, the publishing page itself is doing some really wonky stuff, but that’s not really the concern of most everyone else here.
Oh, well. Hopefully we don’t all get SBN’d today, and everything is running smoothly by the time morning traffic picks up.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
I'm totally down with the Colby thing
the legend of C. Rasmus will take on new dimensions. I too am looking for a passing the projections type of breakout season. That’s my position surprise.
Chris Carpenter will (read:will not) get hurt. He’ll languish (kick ass) all year on the DL (mound).
They say sing while you slave but I just get bored
Predictions
I like Joey Bombs, wrist permitting for the same reasons stated above. If his wrist doesn’t permit, however, I like Mark Hamilton to open some eyes as an option for another LH hitting outfielder (is he servicable as an outfielder?)
Hill will go the way of Matt Clement and our fifth starter coming out of spring training will be Jaime Garcia.
among those that finished last year healthy
i’m on the hamilton wagon too
pitchers are really hard, but i guess interns of a surprise it would petey p
don’t think the young guns would be that much of a surprise
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
tbh I like your picks RB
but for the sake of being contrarian, I’ll go with Sanchez instead of Samuel.
Other things it’ll be nice to see: Colby hitting lefties, Luddy getting somewhat back to 2008 form, Lohse injury free and pitching well, Kinney finally looking recovered and not sucking, Freese playing good D at the hot corner, everybody being more patient at the plate and taking more walks, em…is it bad form to wish for someone to do poorly, because I hope Franklin does poorly enough that the organization realizes he’s not a season-long solution for the ninth, and oh..what the hell: MOAR DINGERZ!!!!
Kinney's an interesting call, too
I don’t think it’s impossible he finds his way back. I recall this time last year people were talking about him as a potential 2009 closer.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 3, 2010 7:17 AM EST up reply actions
Wow, I kinda go the other way on Boog
I think he’ll really struggle to hit as well as he did in 2009, but I guess that’s not based on anyone.
I love the Salas pick, I think he’s become amazingly under-rated given that he’s basically Eduardo Sanchez after one injury-hit year in AAA.
I’m going to pluck a couple of seemingly unlikely names out of the air and go with Oneli Perez and Jon Jay (although I could see Mark Hamilton hitting well enough to be talked about, I doubt he gets close to the mlb team due to positional issues).
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
Not sure why you think he'd do worse
Boog said everything feels much more natural and easy now that he’s aping Pujols at the plate.
I just think he's fringey
and he’s never shown the ability to hit at major league level before. He didn’t walk much (5.6%) and he was reliant on a pretty high batting average (which was bolstered by what I think may be a fairly unsustainable BABIP for him, .335), and it doesn’t take much for “fringey” hitters without any real major league skills to fall off the face of the earth.
FWIW, ALL (and I mean ALL, including the fangraphs’ fans vote, which is usually very bullish) the projection systems peg him to hit worse in 2010 than he did in 2009, and he’s got a pretty long (over 2 years, from 2006-2008) stretch of performance at AAA and MLB level where he’s never hit anywhere near as good as he did in 2009 (although unlucky BABIPs and injuried etc. may be partly to blame).
He’ll be 28 this year and that’s pretty old for any major improvements in his hitting skills, although I wouldn’t totally rule it out.
I just think all the signs point to 2009 being about the best POSSIBLE season for Brendan Ryan with the bat. Yeah, it’s possible he could learn some new skills from McGwire over the winter but you’ve also got to factor in that he won’t likely be as lucky on balls in play, etc. I think by far the most likely scenarios are that he either falls off a cliff, regresses slightly in the negative direction, or stays more or less where he is. I just don’t see a lot of hope for a Boog breakout, to be honest, and I think there’s a lot more evidence to suggest he’ll be worse in 2010; despite what he might say about whatever adjustments he’s made, he’s just not a very good hitter.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 3, 2010 9:35 AM EST up reply actions
also for-what-its-worth
he can fall away a little with the bat and if he’s as good with the glove as 2009 suggested (which I kinda think he is) then he’s still (at worst) an average SS. I’d take that in a heartbeat, personally.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 3, 2010 9:50 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, no. . .
I’m going to drag myself into another debate about another Cardinal SS.
Oh well, here goes. . .
It surprises me how many people seem to think that the real Brendan Ryan is closer to:
the 2008 version that hit 244/307/289 in 218 PAs
than to
the 2009 version that hit 292/340/400 in 429 PAs
particularly when that 2009 version is close to a dead ringer to
the 2007 version that hit 389/347/406 in 199 PAs.
His BABIP was a bit high in 2009, to be sure, but using the old rough LD% + .120 formula, you would have expected a BABIP of .309 rather than his actual of .335. That’s well within normal variance. His 2008, if anything, was as unlucky as 2009 was lucky. You would have expected his BABIP to be .315 rather than the actual .289.
Don’t get me wrong, he wasn’t just unlucky in 2008, but I don’t know that it’s fair to say that his 2009 was especially fluky with the bat. His LD% has been remarkably constant as a big leaguer, which is a pretty good sign.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 3, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
playing time, playing time, playing time
he has problems coming back to live hitting, and he was injured … well, pretty much on a regular basis.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
It surprises me how many people seem to think that the real Brendan Ryan is closer to:
the 2008 version that hit 244/307/289 in 218 PAs
than to
the 2009 version that hit 292/340/400 in 429 PAs
I don’t. Nor did I necessarily say that. I just think he’s closer to the projections for 2010, than his actual 2009:
CHONE: .270/.323/.374
James: .268/.319/.358
Marcel: .277/.336/.392
Actual 2009: .292/.340/.400
His BABIP was a bit high in 2009, to be sure, but using the old rough LD% + .120 formula, you would have expected a BABIP of .309 rather than his actual of .335. That’s well within normal variance. His 2008, if anything, was as unlucky as 2009 was lucky. You would have expected his BABIP to be .315 rather than the actual .289.
Don’t get me wrong, he wasn’t just unlucky in 2008, but I don’t know that it’s fair to say that his 2009 was especially fluky with the bat.
Well, I dunno, you seem to saying he was slightly fluky with the bat in 2009, to the tune of an extra .020 average on balls in play (BABIP of .335 as opposed to an xBABIP of .315). Given the league average BABIP is around .300-.305, I think it’s not unreasonable to expect the light-hitting (albeit speedy) Ryan to actually have a true-talent BABIP of less than .315.
(as an aside, all this is assuming that the LD%+0.120 formula, which has been shown to be pretty poor for a lot of players, and which is prone to the extreme park-to-park variations in what is actually classed as a “line drive”, is anywhere near appropriate for Ryan – without hitFX, it’s hard to argue either way, and I agree your estimate probably isn’t bad given that his career BABIP is .317, although I believe there is a formula that correlates better with “real” BABIP that involves a combination of LD% and GB/FB ratio (and also IFFB rate), although given Ryan’s high GB rate, if anything, I would guess this might be to his advantage).
If you subtract the .020 BABIP “luck” that we both agree that he benefitted from last season, you get something like this line:
2009 (luck-adjusted): .275/.323/.370
Hmmmmm, that looks oddly (indeed eerily) like:
2010 CHONE: .270/.323/.374
So really, all I’m saying is that Ryan won’t improve over his 2009 (indeed, I think it’s about his ceiling in terms of ability, given his age, his relatively bad minor league hitting record, his poor BB rate, and his lack of any power, which I don’t expect to develop aged 28, dinger camp or not), he’ll just regress to something like normal luck, which, given he’s kinda “fringey” (as I said) in his offensive skillset, won’t take much of a swing into the “bad luck” or “out of form” region to fall totally off the map.
I just think expecting ANOTHER year of major improvement at the plate is hugely optimistic. Not totally impossible, but it’d be a statistical outlier for a light-hitting SS to suddenly improve on a career year in his late 20s. If his skillset stays much the same, he’s a good bet to regress in terms of his overall numbers.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 5:39 AM EST up reply actions
OK
I just re-read your original post, and I am sorry for reading too much Boog pessiimism into it. It appears to me that we may have close to the same opinion of the lad, although I suspect that I’m slightly higher on him than you are. I think true production-wise, he’s probably about what we saw last season; I think any slight BABIP regression probably has a chance of being made up by a slightly better approach at the plate, whether that be thanks to Dinger camp, having the confidence of having won the everyday job, divine intervention thanks to him now being a man of the cloth, or otherwise. My own 95th percentile projection of him would probably be something like a Skippy Schumacker line (less some SLG), with his 50th percentile being about what he did last season.
Your points about LD +.120 are well-taken of course. I just happen to think that Ryan is a player for whom that rough measure is probably good enough. To my eye (yes, always dangerous), his mix of batted balls has looked to be pretty consistent during his time with the BotB, something that is backed up by his batted ball type numbers.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 4, 2010 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
incidentally
good music choices today. Love Pale Blue Eyes and Queen Bitch (although I’m not a big Bowie fan, in general), and knives out is one of my favourite post-guitar radiohead tunes. Kudos.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
I know where the Salas report is coming from
but I think it’s a misrepresentation of his velocity. When I’ve saw him in person he sat 90-92 and touched 94. He’s more of a command guy than a stuff guy.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
This is what I always thought also
I always thought he had above average off speed stuff with great control. Which I think would explain the dominance over AA.
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 3, 2010 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
He's a curve, rather than changeup guy, I think
I dunno if he throws a change at all (it’s probably not terribly good if he does).
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 3, 2010 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
I had that impression as well
It seemed he was a guy with a moving FB who got his numbers on a nasty snapping curve, right?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 3, 2010 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
I'm going strictly off the two times I've seen him live,
and it’s entirely possible I saw him on unusual days, or the stadium gun was fast. When I’ve seen him, though, he sat more in that 92-94 range and went higher on occasion. Like I said, though, that’s based mostly on just my own very limited viewing of him in two games.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Scout.com says something similar to you actually
But I just never remember hearing he threw that hard before.
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 3, 2010 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
Bounce back, Baby. Bounce back!
I think Joey Bombs helps in a big way. He has great upside if healthy, and he has the versatility thang going for him. Seemed he actually played some pretty impressive D at 3b last spring. Bombs Away! For pitchers, I’m giving Motte some love. He’ll be smarter and better with the slider. We won’t remember Chris Perez when Motte the Hell dominates.
SD
Motte the Hell...
kinda sounds like Motte the Hoople, whose biggest hit was All the Young Dudes, which was produced by David Bowie.
/Full Circle’d
Motte and Bombs are
my two picks as well. Sauce says he has 2 new pitches, and I hope Joey found his wrist.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Question: does anybody expect us to acquire any players during spring training?
I don’t really expect any Spring Training acquisition.
…
Anyway, since I do expect Colby to improve greatly and I expect Craig and Freese to be capable and Luddy to improve, yadda yadda, I’m going to have to be totally unoriginal and say Brendan Ryan will be the surprise hitter. Same defense and improved hitting. I don’t really expect it to happen but I really, really hope it will happen.
As for surprise pitcher? I dunno… Kyle Lohse. There.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Hank Blalock and John Smoltz
2M for Blalock (a la the Diner’s precedent) and 3M for Smoltz, both signed after March 10th.
I’m getting a bit ridiculous with these hypotheses I know.
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
by timmycardinals on Feb 3, 2010 9:33 AM EST up reply actions
Seems like an overpay for a guy with no position.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
I really would love
to see Jamie Garcia just come in to spring ready to win the 5th spot and do it with out any qustion. Since we are talking about suprises I would like tosee Tyler Green step up. So there would be no need for a guy like Floopy.
JAIME GARCIA
(just ’cause I held it in for three days)
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
don't worry
i comment with it randomly and have been trying to cut back. it’s not like I pointed out that it’s ‘Tyler Greene.’
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i fear one day i will typo his name when i do that...
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
My Picks
Breakthrough position player: Joey Bombs
Breakthrough pitcher: Joey Bombs
Deep in his batcave this winter, Mather has been honing his skills, only to emerge this spring with a 95 mph fastball and biting curve. Carpenter is heard to remark that “all Joe needed was a taste of me Samsonite.”
Meanwhile, Duncan turns Bombs into a groundball machine, who splits time at LF, 3B and as a bridge to Ryan Franklin.
Mitchell Boggs/Yadier Molina
Mitchell Boggs will become the answer to the eighth-inning quandary and become a formidable bullpen arm, pushing Motte to the seventh inning/escape artist role, allowing us to shrink games to 7 innings and squeeze valuable nectar from our awesome, yet brittle rotation.
I think Yadi will burst his offensive bubble that has restricted his value to just under the Mauers, McCanns, etc. I predict a Holliday-ian of a line something like .315/.395/.455 with HRs in the upper teens and RBIs over 100. Of course, this offensive prowess will help him win another Gold Glove, even moreso than his 30 pickoffs for the year.
What?!
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
I realize that i did yearly predictions--not spring surprises
I never followed directions very well.
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
by timmycardinals on Feb 3, 2010 9:34 AM EST up reply actions
That's okay
What’s important is that you had fun and nobody got hurt.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
by mojowo11 on Feb 3, 2010 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Jay and Jukich
Jon Jay – For the second year in a row I’m predicting the “Jon Jay Spring Training Explosion.” I can see him hitting a high BABIP, small sample size, crappy spring training competition fueled .340. Capturing the hearts of casual Cardinal fans everywhere.
Ben Jukich – I don’t know why but I am expecting him to have a Pulsipherian Spring Training, in which he is inexplicably effective.
I wanted to say Jay too
but realized that him having a lot of impact on this team beyond Spring Training meant a large ineffectiveness and/or injury to Holliday/Rasmus/or Ludwick, and I’ve developed an extremely violent allergy to something like that.
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
by timmycardinals on Feb 3, 2010 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
So if Salas and Sanchez both make the team
will we be subjected to endless “Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition” memes?
I hope so
but tbh I can’t see room for either of them on the team, really. Given TLR’s lust for players he knows and who’ve proven themselves to him, they’re both well down the pecking order. Also, I don’t think either are on the 40-man, which could cause issues. I expect one of them to make their mlb debut in 2010, though.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 3, 2010 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
fwiw
calling someone from South America or Mexico “Spanish” is a pretty strong insult. If we’re gonna try to do that meme, it’s be much more palatable to do “Hispanic Inquisition”.
/sleepybuzzkillington.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
maybe spanish could be referring to the language they speak?
/avoiding pc drama
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
of course it is.
Doesn’t make it OK.
Anyway, at least they aren’t calling an Irishman “English” *. I’ve done that, in a seedy bar in Fairford, and it did not end well.
* (though it’s pretty much the same thing, if not worse)
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Really hate to see
honky on honky crime like that…
preemptive ’it’s just a joke let it go people’…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
by ducttape16 on Feb 3, 2010 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Nobody expects the Celtic Inquisition?
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Feb 4, 2010 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
c'mon, dude.
some of my best friends are gingers.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
fwiw
calling an irish-german merkan “insane” is a pretty strong insult.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Just like clutch and lineup protection
the Welsh are a myth.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 5:42 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think we need to burn both Sleepy and spants
you know, just to be safe.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Gingers breed like
Lemmings we had them nearly eradicated back in the mid nineties, they just overran Donegal last week
Я виключаю ти, сука
gingers or lemmings?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Gingers, the lemming self eridicate
the best you can get gingers to do is drink themselves sterile
Я виключаю ти, сука
it's the only way to be sure...
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
I will even let a ginger come in my house!
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog
I'm really hoping you're wrong about Joe Mather's wrist and he comes back.
Because I really like him. And not just because he looks good in a baseball uniform either.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
I realise it's often in jest (JWO above) or to make comments about how good he looks in a baseball uniform (!)
But I think people are seriously over-rating Mather’s chances of ever being a productive player again, and, especially, of contributing in 2010. He’s just had THREE wrist surgeries in little over a year, and he looked utterly out-of-sorts when he came back in 2009. I really like him too, I just don’t think we should anticipate anything at all from him in 2010. A solid year in AAA would be just fine.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 3, 2010 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I'm really surprised by the optimism on Mather
Don’t mind it, but I don’t share it quite yet.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I couldn't agree with my fellow matty more
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I didn't say I thought it was likely.
I just hope it happens. Big difference.
Also I’m totally serious about how good he looks in a uniform. There is no jesting.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Yes, it was more of a general point than one addressed to you
I just thought i’d put it in a Bombs-related part of the thread!
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 3, 2010 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with both of you.
I don’t think it’s particularly likely the Bomberman will do much of anything, because I just don’t believe in that wrist. So point to Monk.
I also agree that is one fine, fine looking example of the male half of the species. So point to Clemson.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
You should see how he looks without the uniform on
Not…that…I would know?
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
by mojowo11 on Feb 3, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Wow...
In the words of my daughter, that just happened.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 3, 2010 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
My picks:
On pure hunch, I guess…
Position Player: Allen Craig
Pitcher: Kyle Lohse
I want the Walrus back...
Lohse and Holliday
I had to think for a moment to realize who our 4th rotation spot was reserved for, and I’m sure I’m not the only one who dosn’t have Lohse on the mind as we head into spring training. If he’s fully recovered, I think we can expect him to bounce back to near 2008 form.
I know its hard to be surprised by a $120 million dollar player, but I feel he is gonna tear the cover off the ball and be the Cards MVP in spring training. Look for him to OPS something like 1.023 and then taper off dramatically when games start counting again. Wait this sounds familiar…..
It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great.
Pete Parise and Ruben Gotay
My prediction- both Parise and Gotay make the team out of spring training.
Yes, I know both players are “low-upside” guys, but if both players make the big club that would qualify me for the spring surprise award, right?
Here is my short argument for both players-
Parise- K/9 ratio spiked last year as the closer in Memphis (7.61) and K/BB ratio stayed solid at 2.38. CHONE is already giving him a 4.30 MLE era this year, and if his walk rate stays low he could meet or slightly beat that projection.
Also, I was in a pretty cool ‘q and a’ session with Jeff Luhnow at the Cardinals Winter Warm Up where he specifically mentioned Parise as a sleeper for the big club.
Gotay- Dave Cameron of fangraphs approves of this guy, and that’s good enough for me.
Gotay highlights- He knows how to take a walk (102 walks in 479 PA’s last season in AAA), Showed a little pop last year, so he may be a late bloomer (.879 OPS in PCL), ability to play 3b, and a switch hitter who is best vs right handers (platoon option w/ Freese). Still only 27 years old.
Gotay is much younger than I realized
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
Pitcher: Penny, Pos Player: Rasmus
Brad Penny comes in and reminds everybody that he still throws really hard and had a .205 avg against once he retreated back to the NL last year. Suddenly it looks like we have 3 number one’s, and the talk begins about which of them is most likely to challenge Lincecum for the Cy Young. OK, I’m only kidding about the last part.
Colby doesn’t just show the expected improvement, but starts to look like a legitimate all-star CF — the kind that hits .300 and has 30 HR power.
+1 on Penny
Can we pull a Arroyo here? Let’s buff the balls using a lead solution so that the ball weighs a ton. With Penny’s heavy 2-seamer that’ll guarantee a GB% of 100.
But seriously. As ours have pointed out: Duncan philosophy + Penny = perfect match.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
Where are all the TWSSs?
Are those also now forbidden after the great meme purge of 2009?
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
That's what she said?
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
by ducttape16 on Feb 3, 2010 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I might not be good at many things
but one thing I’ll always be good at is crushing the grooved that’s what she said pitches out of the stadium.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
I keep seeing this "Duncan+Penny = gold" equation
but I don’t really get it, to be honest. Penny’s already pitching like Duncan wants him to. What is he going to improve upon under Dunc’s tutelage?
by brackenthebox on Feb 3, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
MOAR PIXIE DUST
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
Many reasons:
1. He is in the best shape of his life
2. DD, Carp, et al. will identify his pitch tipping flaws
3. STL is the best baseball town in American with the best pitching coach
4. Dennis Eckersley and Dave Stewart both swear that TLR and DD are the best.
But seriously, others have shown that he could be further Duncanfied. I forgot the exact posts and details but it was something along the lines that he was still using his four seamer a lot. Maybe the original poster(s) can rehash the particular stats about the proportions of the pitches. Also, I am fairly upbeat about our infield D. I think even Skip could improve in his 2nd year of 2B. But boy do I miss Rolen’s beautiful D.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
Total, #1 shouldn't be very hard for Penny
That dude can barely run to the bathroom!
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
5. McKay gives those great neck rubs that really loosen you up mid-game.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
i need to refer to andi_k's observations for that one
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Penny's fastball is mainly a hard 4-seamer
that he (apparently) must locate pretty well low in the zone because he’s managed an above-average GB rate most of his career. Duncan usually preaches a 2-seamer running in on RHBs, so really the pitch he’s using is somewhat outside of the Duncan school. I really think they’re potentially a good combo, actually; it remains to be seen if Duncan gets Penny using a sinker or if he continues throwing the 4-seamer (which averaged a higher velo than at any other time in his career in 2009, fact-fans).
Either way, I have a pretty good feeling about Penny next year.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 5:46 AM EST up reply actions
Allen Craig and Mitch Boggs.
Boggs will develop the control that has been missing from his repotoire and become a very good releiver or even a pretty serviceable starter.
Allen Craig will hit .360, OBP over .400, and show lots of pop. Sadly he will be sent to Springfield to work on becoming a 2nd baseman after showing adequate skills at both LF and RF.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
I second Craig and Boggs.
If we are to focus on Spring Training I think these two have as good a chance or better as any of the young guys of having a good showing. For the entire season I like the Penny and Rasmus picks, don’t know they will do much in Spring Training though. I also think the Cards are hoping for Garcia and Freese to be the strong showings in Spring but they aren’t getting much mention on here and I don’t expect much in the Spring from these guys. I think those two will do enough to make the team but I don’t see them being all that impressive this Spring. Freese can’t and won’t be worse than Thurston but I think his season hitting wise will be similar to Rasmus’s season last year.
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."
Yeah, Hawk....
I think a lot of people picking Rasmus may forget just how awful he usually starts the year off. Most of his minor league seasons were kicked off by a very forgettable first month. Maybe he will turn that around with the big club, though.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
boggs
closer by year end in at least some games
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
That's where I would like to see him by the end of the year as well
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."
Josh Kinney and Shane Robinson
Pitcher: Kinney might be wishful thinking, but I have a little trouble letting go of the idea that he could recapture whatever it was that he captured in the first place to make him so freakin’ good a couple of years back.
Position Player: Shane Robinson was created for exactly this kind of scenario. He will have a batting avg. of, like, .440, in spring training, make a couple of diving catches that ingratiate him to all of us, might even have a couple of good games in April, and will quickly become the Brian Barden of 2010.
I love that we put ourselves through this every year.
"When all's been said and done, I can say that all has been said and done."
-Steve "Lips" Kudlow, of Anvil
Just to remind everyone
In spring training 2009, the dudes tearing the cover off the ball were Khalil Greene, Rick Ankiel, and —for a while -- Chris Duncan.
/facepalm
yeah, that's what I was about to say
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Red Baron:
I may not always agree with your point of view or your humor (though mostly I do), but I can never argue with your musical tastes. For clarification: which version of “Psycho Killer” are you listening to? I actually prefer the live recording from “Stop Making Sense.”
Honi soit qui mal y pense.
"I'd like to play a cassette tape"...
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 3, 2010 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
You know,
on reflection, I think you may be right. The version off “Stop Making Sense” just might be the best. Tough to say, as it’s a brilliant song regardless, but there does seem to be an immediacy to that performance that’s just remarkable. Intense.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Does it come with a tarp?
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
by spants on Feb 3, 2010 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Dammit, I just got rid of that image to save space and trim the unnecessary stuff.
It’s a Tarp!
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
Not a tarp.
It’s a snake
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 3, 2010 7:39 PM EST up reply actions
I used to have nightmares about that tarp
Seeing it eat Vince Coleman was traumatizing for my more impressionable days.
by Mulliganstew on Feb 3, 2010 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
it is the maintenance mans fault
He didn’t realize he had a hole in his Reeces Pieces bag
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 3, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
Pete Parise and Freese
see saluki’s comments above concerning Parise – there may be a bullpen spot open, especially if McClelland becomes the fifth starter – not sure how long Parise’s major league career will last but he’s my pick for the pitching surprise
much less sure on the hitting side – let’s say Freese comes in and solidifies his hold on the third base position, though we’ll see if it lasts the entire season
on Rasmus, I also hope for good things this year IF he can stay healthy – remember in early July last year he was leading virtually every offensive category for rookies, before he fell off the cliff – and then he had a very good (tho very short) playoffs
don't touch me i'm a real live wire
Ben jukich and ruben gotay -
Jukich because – though not likely to stick with the club – he has a likeable skillset (groundball pitcher) for the cards. Seems like most people are under estimating him.
Gotay because he could really seize his chance to shine.he has a long history as a patient on-base guy.
Although I don’t expect either to make the team, both could plausibly have a role in the last pitcher/position player spot respectively.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
by tom s. on Feb 3, 2010 11:19 AM EST via mobile reply actions
ST surprises
Bryan Anderson will show enough bat to complicate things (when Pagnozzi and LaRue stand between him and the backup role).
Mitch Boggs will show flashes, before draining away into oblivion.
Or maybe not.
Anderson
Tony is looking high and low for a lefthanded bench bat that shows a pulse. There is Anderson and we have two emergency catchers on the team (Freese and Motte). I don’t know what the organization doesn’t try embracing him and coaching up his defensive skills. The only reason I can see for this is the nagging shoulder injury that was never operated on. If Anderson comes into camp showing that he can throw, then I don’t get Pagnozzi.
Motte will never catch in the bigs. Never.
TLR was very clear about that.
by StanTheManFan on Feb 3, 2010 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
Motte will be in the bigs long after Tony retires (hopefully)
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Connie Mack did manage until he was 87
maybe Tony wants to break all his records?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
hmmmm
he’s 65 next season so that’s 22 more seasons and he averages 87 wins as a manger that’s 1900 more wins.
will that catch Mack?
can he catch him in losses as well?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
well if he averages 87 then he'll average 75 losses which is an additional 1650.
that’s a career total of 4466(#1)-3867(#2)
I say they go for it!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Throwing my hat into the ring
Salas and Gotay
Gotay because I don’t see anyone currently contending for the last MIF spot. He will have a good spring than become Thurston 2.0
I have been awful high on Salas since his great 2008. His injury plagued season of 2009 can be tracked to hand injuries thankfully. No shoulder or elbow problems. He has a good curveball already so that should help him adapt to the major leagues. With his excellent control paired up with him. He is probably good enough to give you a K/BB of 2 or better. Here is a video of him
MIF spot is taken
by Lugo. We have a spare corner IF spot open and Gotay is the only one of the contenders who can hit lefthanded … although he basically sucks with a bat in his hands from both sides of the plate. The analogy to Thurston is aptly put. T. Greene. J. Mather and A. Craig are also contenders for this slot.
Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter
Albert hits .600/.800/2.000 in ST and Carp throws 30 perfect innings
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
jd, the baron is looking for SURPRISING results.
Read more carefully, pls.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
by tom s. on Feb 3, 2010 11:39 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
news flash: walt jocketty signs miguel cairo.
Is this a 2010 news story or a recycled 2007 story? Can it be both?
Also, tony la russa contemplates managing the reds with both cairo and miles on the team, sheds solitary tear.
He then returns to polishing the bronze statue of matt holliday he commissioned last month.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
by tom s. on Feb 3, 2010 11:36 AM EST via mobile reply actions 2 recs
i need more coffee
i just considered asking where he’s polishing it.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
sounds like an uncomfortable place.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
by tom s. on Feb 3, 2010 11:45 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 5 recs
has it come to a complete stop at an intersection?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Holy crap
Now the Reds have Miles AND Cairo. Jocketty is blasting from the pasting.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
Don't forget Scotty....
Actually kind of surprised he never went after JEd.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Walt has a call in
for Speizio but they are still checking all the overnight holding cells in California.
booo.
Spiezio is in the Dominican for some winter ball.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
"Spiezio! Spiezio! You have a visitor!"
“Huh? What? A visitor? Cool, man, just let me get my shit together here, man. Um, who is it? Is it Walt Jocketty or something? Who else knows I’m in here?”
“Yes, actually. Yes it is Walt Jocketty.”
“Awesome! Dude, I knew somebody would remember me! Maybe he’ll bail out the rest of the band, too.”
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
This is like Scott Pioli...
…turning the Chiefs into New England West. Only it’s St. Louis Scrappies East… or something.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 3, 2010 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
it's like Ocean's 19 -- the original had it's flaws and the sequel many years later just stinks.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
one word
Izzy
Heaven has brick walls and St. Peter is a red bird.
by EinFesteBusch on Feb 3, 2010 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
Izzy would be funny
But Walt should also call randy flores, brad thompson, and pedro borbon to round out their bullpen.
"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."
My Picks
Pitching: Mitchell Boggs in the bullpen (even if I’m not sure it’d be a surprise)
Position: Allen Craig
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
My picks
Pitching – Pete Parise: He was awfully good last year and should get a look as a middle reliever. I think he’ll have an excellent spring.
Hitting – Daryl Jones: I think it’s make it or break it time for Jones, and I would guess that he knows it too. If we’re going to see anything from him, I would bet on this spring being when it will happen. He’s fully healthy and could hit .340-.350 over 100 or so spring AB’s.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I'll take Rich Hill and Joe Mather,
because I’d be incredibly surprised if either of them are healthy enough to do anything in ST. Mather is closer than Hill to actual health, but it’s not even that I’d be surprised- I’d be impressed with Bombs if he made it back, because it takes a lot of luck and a ton of work and a high pain tolerance to deal with his injury.
On a more serious note, I think the Gotay and Jukich optimism is pretty well-founded. Both are low-upside TLR and DD sort of guys, and that could give them an edge looking toward the MLB roster. However, we’re not exactly talking about people most likely to make the roster. We know what these guys look like, and it’s their unsurprising, predictable skills that make them more likely than more intriguing people with high upsides.
By the way, a few comments down, Allen Craig actually made the inaugural Spring Surprises list after raking in AA ball. What might have been.
So, despite a few instances of misdirection, my actual picks are Allen Craig and Francisco Samuel. These are the kinds of players people really talk about in the spring. Heavy hitters and hard throwers can make any reporter start seeing unicorns. Our coaching staff is less impressed by these types, so their MLB future is questionable, but that’s no surprise.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
I wholeheartedly agree with your assessment about Brendan Ryan.
Even if he shows marginal improvement in his approach at the plate while maintaining defensive excellence, it will be a real boon for him and the Cardinals. Wouldn’t it be great if Brendan had Tyler Greene’s power?
Lastly, are you sure that light at the end of the tunnel isn’t, in fact, a train?
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
Yes, just an uptick
in OBP, even with everything else remaining the same, would make me ecstatic.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 3, 2010 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
I'd be very suprised if Ryan did not get significantly worse next year offensively
Compared to 2009.
No proof 'til Brooklyn
You basing this solely on his above average BABIP? We don’t have too much history to go on of course, but I could easily say that a mild regression on BABIP will be offset by a return to his 2007 and 2008 BB%.
"But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in." - Albert Pujols 8/20/09, base-clogger.
No, I'm not basing this on his BABIP last year
I’m basing this on his career .706 OPS in the majors, his career .644 OPS in 4 seasons at AAA and .724 overall in the minors, and the fact that the average of the projection systems at FanGraphs has him at .698. Last year, he had a .740 OPS. He’s most likely going to regress… a lot.
yes, while i may cheer and hope he somehow can hit better in the majors than he ever did in the minors
i’m not sure why so many people around these parts expect this to happen. he is what he is. and like i thought most people overrated the previous hitting coach’s impact on our guys i think its likely many are overrating big mac’s impact on our hitters as well.
Seriously? OPS?
Of course his OPS is bad…you have a guy that slugs for nothing, and using a stat that equates OBP and SLG is certainly going to make him look bad.
If you just focus on OBP (or even wOBA), I don’t think we’re really being too optimistic. He’s had 67 MLB games (in 2007) where he had an OBP of .347. 2008 was definitely a bad year where he had 80 games and a .307 OBP. His 2009, where he played 129 games and started a lot of them, was closer to 2007 with a .340 OBP.
I don’t discount his minor league games, but I do not give them more weight than his 375 MLB games.
"But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in." - Albert Pujols 8/20/09, base-clogger.
Exactly. . .
I don’t think Boog is going to turn into an All-Star or anything. On the contrary, I think that what we see is pretty much what we’re going to get: a 340ish OBP, no slugging, and plus-plus defense at the most important spot on the field.
Or, to put it another way, on the short long-term track to the Omar Vizquel wing of the Hall of Fame.
Oh crap, now I’ve done it. . .
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 3, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
I used OPS because wOBA isn't avaiable in baseball reference minors
It shouldn’t make that much of a difference in terms of production.
I’m not giving his minor league games more weight. If I were, I’d use his miserable MLE’s and he’d have a projected OPS of around .600. His major league OPS is .706. When you factor in his minor league numbers, that drops to below .700, which is where I expect him to be next year.
Hardball Times PrOPS
Which kind of takes luck out of the equation. Not a perfect system but not a bad one. Had his PrOPS at .688
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 3, 2010 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
that is from 2009, btw
So luck neutral his OPS would of been .688
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 3, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
haha
i was being a smart ass. i had no idea what “eesh” meant
i thought maybe he hit enter on accident or something
as for boog, he was a 3.2 WAR player last year. if he can maintain his defense and put up at least a .300 wOBA, i will be happier than a pig in shit
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
CHONE (as I said above) projects a regression in his offense
and still has him pegged as a 2.8 WAR player next year (although I think it’s overly bullish on his defense – +15 as a SS is Ozzie territory…). I think he’ll be about average, perhaps even a tick above.
I just think all the logical signs point to a regression with the bat, especially as he’s going to be an everyday player – although his splits ain’t bad so far, I have much more confidence in him vs LHP than RHP.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 5:52 AM EST up reply actions
maybe.
OTOH, the dude is a very big guy, for a middle infielder, and could develop power as he ages. He’s not your typical 5’ 8" shortstop. And he was dealing with a serious wrist injury in 2008, so you have to take that .596 OPS in perspective.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Allen Craig and Sanchez
Sadly it will all be for naught; Gotay will bomb, and Skippy will pull a hammy in ST, forcing MO to trade Craig to the Reds for Aaron Miles.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Motte
you dummy, MOTTE!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
My predictions
Ruben Gotay will be our Opening Day third baseman. You heard it here first (possibly).
Kyle Lohse bounces back to his 2008 form. It is all kinds of rad, and people dance in the streets.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
Oh, and I might have missed this somehow
and I meant to post this much earlier, but I was being all SBN’d,but how in the hell did Aaron get a post up at 2:30 in the morning? My Wednesday is going to be all screwed up now.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
It's kind of nice not hanging out in Tuesday's post, waiting for today's post to drop.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
You know what?
I don’t need this kind of abuse. I can get these sorts of insults and nastiness from people I actually know in real life. So there.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
Do you and VEP have a support group formed up yet?
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
I wouldn't consider that to be the case...
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
Get your mind in the gutter...
then reread that…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
Not very often I get to tell people
to get their mind in the gutter. Feels odd.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
I generally read all comments through gutter glasses first...
makes life more fun.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
he did it last week too
It is the product of sheer grit and determination. Or cocaine. Maybe like a grit-determination-coke speedball,
or as I call that last one,
a Spiezio Special
by mattyp on Feb 3, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I don't care for it.
He’s just setting himself up for failure now.
by Mister Eff on Feb 3, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I am not a fan of the new VEB'ed Red Baron
I am used to being able to come home, throw back a beer or two, and then enjoy my Wednesday afternoon posts when they are fresh. What, am I going to have to start calling in sick every Wednesday from here on out so I can start drinking as soon as I wake up?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
This is absolutely true.
I’ll never hear the end of it from you people now the next time my Wednesday epic doesn’t go up until 2:30 pm Eastern time. And we all know it’ll happen, and probably sooner than later.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
I know, it's crazy, right?
Next week he’ll probably post a Pitch f/x analysis of Penny!
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
by mojowo11 on Feb 3, 2010 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 16 recs
that thing might go green within 5 minutes of being posted.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
This actually did make me laugh out loud
But no internet TLAs from me, no sir.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
the legendary p f/x penny post of yore!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
I love how this has turned into VEP's Holy Grail
.jpg)
probably my fave off season meme
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
It's no ice-cold bottle of Franklins.
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
LOL
In all seriousness though, I think he’s painted himself into a corner…
He’s so critical of the analyses of other people that he’s afraid to throw up anything that might be criticized. Which leads to no analysis instead of imperfect yet quite good analysis. I’m sure there’s a political analogy here that I’m not allowed to post….
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Assuming you are, this is an absolutely ridiculous position
I’ve published some 80 articles here, at THT, BtB and Driveline Mechanics. Not to mention at least 40 FanPosts with analytical content in them. I link to my THT articles in my profile, as well as my email. I absolutely welcome criticism on all of my work.
The reason I have yet to publish a Penny Pitch f/x piece is that it is a shitload of tedious work. I have school, work, as well as writing long, in depth pieces for THT each week. I haven’t been able to find the time to sit down for 5-6 hours, reclassify all ~7000 of Penny’s pitches since 2007, break them down into many different categories, format graphs and analyze it all. It is a lot of fucking work, way more than what goes into RB’s weekly post or Tom’s or whatever (no offense to those guys).
Now, I would like an apology from you.
Hey veb
why are you letting school, work, etc., get in the way of the important things in life?
Yeah me too.
I didn’t mean to sound insensitive if I did.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
You know,
just sticking the words ‘no offense’ at the end of something doesn’t make it all better. Just an FYI for the future.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, well i think you're kind of stupid
no offense, though
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Huh.
I want to get angry, but just can’t. I mean, you did say no offense and all.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
You didn't say no offense!
You go to hell and you die, Fritz!
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
I use the "[something positive]. that being said, [something negative]."
for my backhanded comments. No offense, of course.
Alright, fine.
All is forgiven, since you’re such a sweet douchebag.
Did I do that right?
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
Sweet.
I believe this is what’s referred to as being ‘in the zone’.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
Also, speaking of Morans,
I haven’t seen Liam around here in what seems like forever. Did he swear off us or something?
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
I thought he popped
into one of the threads last week. Upon checking, he commented in yesterdays thread.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
He's probably just swearing off Wednesday threads
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
That's probably a good idea.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
Oh.
Well then, I suppose I just need to pay more attention.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
You think you're in the zone
I’m pretty close to having two of my comments go green in a single thread.
Sometimes you just run the place, you know? Someone bring me some coffee.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
I had a hat-trick the other week.
It was pretty sweet.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
now, i am not a racist, aaron,
but in my experience, [members of your ethnic group, whatever it is,] are all shiftless and lazy, prone to criminality and popping out far too many babies.
mind you, some of my best friends are [members of your ethnic group, whatever it is].
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
by tom s. on Feb 3, 2010 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
better to pop out babies
than to pop out collars ( no offense to your ethnic group, whatever it is, Tom)
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
douchebag is not an ethnicity.
ryan braun is still fair game.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
As I was scanning your comment,
I read far too many babies very quickly, and thought it said something about tar babies. I was very, very worried.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
Also, I'm not only white,
but extremely white. German all the way down the line white.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
Germans love David Hasselhoff!
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
lol...I had to google that.
I was thinking…How does this guy know about my merkin……he really is a prophet.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
ha
i didn’t know it was already a slang word and spelled like that
kinda akes you question the concept of an original thought
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
and btw
i was going for def #2 below
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=merkan
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I miss Norm MacDonald
not being in my life on a weekly basis…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
That's a bit of a haul from Chicago for me...
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
speaking of being racist
How is burwell still on the air after saying, “one of those hoochies from the one the Mexican stations…” yesterday? If someone said “one of those hoes from the black stations..” He would be up in arms. (and rightfully so.)
Sorry. Just irked me yesterday and this is the first time I had a chance to bring it up anywhere…
trying to find the audio on 101.1
not sure if they have the whole archived just appears to be the interviews that are archived
It's totally acceptable...
at least if he was drunk… cause being drunk is the same as no offense… or was I misinformed about that?
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
Well if he was drunk
then I’m not really sure it is acceptable for him to be drunk while doing his radio job. He can’t just go stealing Mike Shannon’s thing!
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Feb 3, 2010 11:49 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
That's really something to be decided
by the copyright lawyers if you ask me…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
Or Flim apparently who might punch him in the face.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
respect my authority
wednesdays at 10 anyway (9 central)
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
And my point is that
you can have your say about being busy and how tough it is to do this sort of thing, and we’re all well aware of it, without tossing your compatriots under the bus.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 8:33 PM EST up reply actions
I just read it as
his stuff takes a really long time to compile, and he doesn’t have much time in his schedule. the no offense bit was probably just a rushed response, since he is so busy. that’s my take anyway
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not saying one is harder than the other
just that one is more time consuming
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 8:36 PM EST up reply actions
so you're saying they take the same amount of time to write?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
No
as the original point wasn’t about “time” and I wouldn’t out rightly qualify one style over the over.
Data mining and analysis like VEP does can months, days, or hours.
Creative writing like Dan and RB does can take months to get a quality article or you can strike lightening in an hour.
I’m not saying any are more or less work than the other. It’s all work and it’s all gratefully appreciated.
by Mister Eff on Feb 3, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
For my serious research articles
I typically spend about 10 hours over the week writing it, writing code to get the data, making graphs, editing. I also take forever to write.
For VEB, I haven’t really spent that much time on an article – but I’m doing that for Penny.
This is going to be your War and Peace isn't it?
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
I'm going to charge 6 dollars for anyone who wants to read it
by vivaelpujols on Feb 3, 2010 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
What cost $6 in 1869 would cost $95.91 in 2010
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 3, 2010 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
or give 141 year contracts.
though albert might rate an exception.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Not my ideas.
I just wait for something bad to happen, then draw a trite parallel between that and a free agent negotiation.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 8:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think the initial idea is the hardest part
the writing about it isn’t that difficult usually
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
My statement was purely about the Penny article, read it again
I wasn’t tossing you under the bus, I was making a comparison.
I think he's saying
Saying “no offense” at the end of something doesn’t keep the person you’re talking about from getting offended
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
You're not helping, Fritz!
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
no offense, kinda like most of our hitters in 2009?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I am trying to forget about that, thankyouverymuch
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I wish I could afford beer
that would help
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 8:38 PM EST up reply actions
You will be in my thoughts
as I pour a nice cold one. Poor soul.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
The point is that it's not tactful.
And it marginalizes the efforts of your colleagues.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
Sure it does
and no offense but I didn’t know that you have had experimental surgery to have your balls removed
Я виключаю ти, сука
Last sentence of second paragraph was a really bad idea.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
i think it's a fair question to ask
if it’s not something you have the time to do, or it’s not something you want to do, why accept the role?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I could fill in when VEP doesn't have time...
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
I would put together something more like tom or rb does
I have no idea how to compile p f/x stuff
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not going to apologize at all
For three reasons:
- I believe that what I’m saying is credible, based on reading your posts here and at THT, and you taking that personally is your own problem, not mine.
- You shouldn’t promise things that you can’t deliver on because you have “other priorities”.
- This post is extremely offensive to both Tom and RB. For that, you should apologize.
Your work is good, but stating that you welcome criticism is mis-stating things a bit. You don’t want to be criticized for something you might have overlooked, meaning that you want to go over everything with a fine-tooth comb to avoid someone coming out and calling your analysis “lazy” or “not thorough enough” as I’ve seen you do to many, many others around SBN.
You also shouldn’t equate VEB with THT — you could throw up a post here with a few errors in pitch identification with some presumed guesses about what those pitches are and nobody here is going to give you a hard time about it, they’d just rather have the analysis and then we can make our own comments and judgments on it in the comments section. This is a very open forum here, yet you treat analysis like it should be “peer reviewed” and perfect before it ever goes up. That is beside the point of this blog, which is about Cardinals first and sabermetrics second, not the other way around like it is on THT and BtB.
Lastly, just because you like to grind out numbers and charts and tables and process everything mathematically, doesn’t mean that you put more thought and time into your posts than tom or RB do, and it’s extremely arrogant attitude to have. It’s making the equation that and accountant works harder at his job than a newspaper columnist — it’s all about how your frame the work. Check the record, those guys haven’t missed many posts — you’ve missed multiple Sundays and had nobody to cover for you. If you don’t have the time to sit down for 7 hours to do a Brad Penny post, but keep using that as an excuse for not posting at all, perhaps you need to reassess your priorities or do smaller, more manageable posts here at VEB. I don’t think that’s too much to ask.
What is expected here is a commitment, and I don’t think that you’ve been able to commit to writing here, because THT and BtB seem to take up most of your time. There are reasons why erik and azru don’t have regular day posts here — they are busy with other commitments and know that they don’t have the time. It’s the same reason that lboros walked away as the lead poster — he couldn’t commit to it fully anymore and chose his real family over his virtual Cardinal one.
Seriously, you do really great work and most of us really do enjoy your posts — when they get posted. Nobody here is going to pick apart your analysis like they would over at THT, we’d rather have a semi-complete analysis where we can draw some conclusions than no analysis at all.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
wow
I thought I was going to be the only person to say Gotay, but his name seems pretty popular on here today. totally agree with picking Boog, RB (no pun intended). also, that’s a very knifey playlist ya got there.
as for pitchers, I think Rich Hill will surprise, if not him, maybe Motte will have a new pitch or just be more effective in general.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 1:34 PM EST reply actions
I am changing my pitcher to Motte
I totally forgot that he supposedly does have a second pitch ready for this season. Or maybe that was just a dirty rumour I came across here on VEB.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
2 ....Motte says he has 2 new pitches.
He is crazy though, so take that for what it’s worth.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
he really is
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Also, one of them is called the Eliminator.
So…
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And to go with that, there should be
the eviscerator and the emasculator.
One is a fastball thrown directly at the gut of the batter, the other is thrown straight at his junk.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Feb 3, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I like "The Emasculator"
It sounds like an Arnie rip-off starring Dolph Lundgren or something.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 6:18 AM EST up reply actions
I would have guessed rene russo
in some 1980’s buddy-cop film.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
or ellin barkin
i’ve always called that maddux-type fastball to lefties that slices back over the plate the devastator.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I now throw the hard fastball and the harder fastball to go with the hardest fastball
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 3, 2010 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
...9000?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
And yet no Mack The Knife
Too obvious, I guess?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Son of a bitch!
Damn it damn it damn it damn it damn it!
No, it wasn’t too obvious. I just forgot about it. And now I’m going to go hang myself in shame.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
Just make up for it next time
with a playlist about hammers. I can think of a couple.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
If I Had a Hammer
The Hammer Song (Nick Cave)
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 6:19 AM EST up reply actions
Greg Valentine's WWF entrance theme?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 6:19 AM EST up reply actions
Maxwell's Silver Hammer by the Beatles (obligatory)
I also would recommend Raise The Hammer by Hammerfall
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
And, it goes without saying (but I'll say it anyway)
You Can’t Touch This
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 8:41 AM EST up reply actions
What possibilities
The great thing about reading the responses is that none of them sound ridiculous. We must have tremendous upside. My predictions(wishes)…Motte finds a second pitch( I also predicted this last year, then cried on opening day) Craig finds a place to play every day on the Cards.
by Remember Kenny B on Feb 3, 2010 1:51 PM EST reply actions
I'm with you, man.
Craig’s journey to relevance as a Cardinal makes me root for him pretty hard.
What else does Allan Craig have to do?!
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Hit as well as Freese only younger?
Oh, wait.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
My picks
Pitcher: Jaime Garcia. it might just be because it’s what I actually hope happens, but it would be great if he dominated in ST and eliminated the 5th starter question. I know it’s not the most important position on the team (it might only be more important than back up catcher and Brad Thompson reliever role) but it makes me feel much more secure when the rotation has 5 guys ready to take the mound each time, as long as they don’t suck. Please make it happen Jaime.
Position Player: David Freese. I’m not usually one who believes that a player’s motivation changes except in extreme cases, but I think Freese is gonna be ready to step out on the field and jack some dongs. And pick it at third. And do whatever badassery needs to be done. All I’m asking for is slightly above average defense, slightly below average offense, his health, and no more poor decisions. Anything else will be a bonus to me. It would be excellent if he could be our cheap third baseman of the next few years who plays a Pedro Feliz type role, at least, when Pedro Feliz was still valuable. Although I hope he’ll be a bit better offensively and don’t expect such fabulous defensive numbers
Some people have their own bowling ball and their own bowling shoes and no friends.
You must be the change you wish to see in the world.
schu and motte
Schu, if he’s in BSOHL, adding a bit more doubles pop to his bat and having the confidence of a full season played with his infield glove.
Motte, if he’s ditched the whirly-bird slider for something that doesn’t rely entirely on gravity for its movement
My entries. . .
Motte – for many of the reasons mentioned above
Allen Craig – TLR will be looking for a bench bat with his profile.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 3, 2010 2:20 PM EST reply actions
veb was kind broke there for a sec
and my picks are gonna have to be oneli perez and dan descalso
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Surprise hitter: Tyler Greene
I think he may have figured it out… Walk rates keep inching up; K rates keep inching down… May steal playing time all over the infield.
Boomer.
OT: I'm listening to some old Adam Carolla Radio Show podcasts
from ’06 at the moment. They had Brandon Inge on there the day after the NLCS win… he said that both teams had a good pitching staff and compared Suppan and Glavine favorably… It completely blew my mind hearing that. Since I remember Glavine being very talented at one point in time, and not so much for Suppan.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
Soon after, he took a consulting position in the Brewers front office.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
It was all I could do
to keep from laughing hysterically.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
Johnny Damon
Because no one expects the Spanish Inquisition. Except, maybe, Mr. Boras.
Honi soit qui mal y pense.
so this girl from my work borrowed my bike to go to home depot
she better not mess up my schwinn
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 3:22 PM EST reply actions
Here we go:
- Mitchell Boggs: Working out of the ‘pen, he’ll be heaving 96 mph thunderbolts that move like snakes. After watching how his FB plays up in one inning appearances I think his future may be out there.
- DJ Tools: My fearless prediction, part two, is that Jones will make some fine catches and hit in a manner that makes everyone say, “dear me, such tools, such a strong face…”
If nothing else, these two guys have the physical gifts that tend to make people go “Wow…” And there’s nothing like a good “wow,” is there?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 3, 2010 3:30 PM EST reply actions
it's hard to pass on a solid yowza
probably on par with a good wow
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I've always been partial to a good "hot diggety dawg" myself.
But to each their own.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 6:22 AM EST up reply actions
the cardinals section on sports illustrated links to this article
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 4:01 PM EST reply actions
Hooray!
Legitimacy now!
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
I guess this means no more Naked Joe Mather jokes from me
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
I disagree.
I think it means way, way more of them.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
I left this page only to return
went full circle
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
want to put bullet in brain
talking to worst customer service ever. i feel confident that a pre-schooler speaks better english
The only thing more frustrating than talking to customer service
Is being customer service.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
This guy lives in the country Columbia
Doesn’t speak English. Can just repeat the same lines. A 5 min call is getting dragged into a 50 min call. I am a rather patient person. I couldn’t imagine what a less patient person would do.
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 3, 2010 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
I think the country is Colombia
Rather than Columbia
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
My Brendan Ryan Big Mac predictions
are incredibly timely, apparently…
Oh, wait, subscription wall. Well, here’s the gist: Brendan is very excited to be working with Mac, has changed his stance to resemble that of Albert, and shaved after he became a minister to marry one of his friends.
I think a question should be raised, though: why aren’t you subscribing to scout.com?
Make way for the Homo Superior.
But does he still lick his shoulder?
That’s my question.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
I swear Mark McGwire
if you made him stop licking his shoulder I will never ever forgive you. Way worse than admitting to taking steroids. Way worse.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Feb 3, 2010 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
yeah
it would be like stealing his soul
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I would probably subscribe
but I make very little money, so that could be a problem. I have lots of internet dollars though!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
Brian Walton is my favorite Non-VEB writer
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 3, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
I remember that name
what was the name of the blog he had?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
No.
That was Brian Gunn.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
Yep. Shocking, I know.
I’m not sure where Brian Walton came from, exactly. That’s the only thing I know him from.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
fyi
This is where I still see WCBW all the time
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 3, 2010 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
before they moved over to scout.com
Walton and another guy (Ray something, i think) had a site at thestlcardinals.com
"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang
(this is what Cards bloggin was like in the old days.)
Before all of your bells and whistles and fanshots and whatnot.
Yep, that was the place.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Wait....did you just say
that Boog’s nickname for this season is The Reverend?
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
wow.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
so is that subscription worth it?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I think so.
I don’t recall how much it is, but their minor league coverage is always really good.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
I think I'll give the three month subscription a go
but I think I’ll wait until after ST
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I like Scout.com
I don’t really want to see this in the open but… it is very easy to get around their subscription system.
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 3, 2010 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
If you want to email me your ways, I wouldn't be upset.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
Thanks for the remarks
My two site names are a bit confusing. The good news is that they are both correct in the VEB blogroll (thanks to danup).
My personal blog is “The Cardinal Nation Blog”, thecardinalnationblog.com.
What you may have known as “The Birdhouse” at Scout.com became “The Cardinal Nation” last summer. It has three URLs. All take you to the same place.
thecardinalnation.com
stlcardinals.scout.com
thestlcardinals.com
My former partner Ray Mileur retired… and don’t expect cache to work much longer… ;-)
Brian Walton
i have actually emailed the scout.com admins about the problem
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 3, 2010 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
And for the record, I didn't bother to look at the site or the site's cache.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
Nothing personal
The blog is kept free and has new content every day, but the subscriptions pay my bills. I don’t have a newspaper or national concern covering my salary and expenses. Still, the economy is terrible and money is tight for everyone. I understand that.
He's become a minister in what?
Like, religion?
Also, I had to read that 3 times before I realised he hadn’t got married to one of his friends. I think I get it all now…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 6:24 AM EST up reply actions
Position Player - Tyler Greene. Pitcher - Boggs (he's going to be great out of the bullpen this year)
If I didn’t know he was going back to Memphis, I’d pick Ottavino. He’ll be my pick next year to slide into the 5th rotation spot.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 3, 2010 4:40 PM EST reply actions
dude
I’m totally excited about Boggs outta the ‘pen… I think he’ll probably be in line for closer, not much of a stretch (unless Motte is bringin the sauce)
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
I was going to go with Ottavino
mostly out of pure hope though, so I went with my second and third choices.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
oh
yes, there is a Kanye mention in comments
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I predict
Lugo will rake and play Smithian D in the spring, making everyone (initially) glad that we didn’t sign floppy.
Hawksworth will doma-doma-dominate! opposing hitters in the spring, showing off a new pitch and flashes of a new arm angle.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 3, 2010 7:44 PM EST reply actions
Hearing Dan McGlaughlin announce basketball is really odd.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Dan McLaughlin calling a layup:
From downtown! Way back there!
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 8:32 PM EST up reply actions
He did just say, "OH GOODNESS GRACIOUS!"
When UVA had a breakaway. It was pretty funny.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Question:
Is he better or worse at basketball than baseball?
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
I can't tell.
I wanna say he’s worse at basketball but I don’t know. Baseball gives him more chances to just kind of talk and then say something stupid.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
It's on ESPNU.
It’s almost over. It’s also not very exciting.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
In his defense
UVA is coached by Tony Bennett. Their average point total is in the low teens. A UVA breakaway is something to get excited about
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
I'll take the low teen point totals
…since it looks like our win total may be finally over the low teens.
[UVA fan trying to get within sniffing distance of the glory days/early 80’s]
youneverknow
Dan McLaughlin calling a dunk
It has a chance to go…IT’S IN!!!!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
"Come along Bort"
“Are you talking to me?”
“No, my son is also named Bort.”
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 4, 2010 6:28 AM EST up reply actions
You're not paid to be on TV. TV people should be halfway decent-looking.
YOU HEAR THAT JACK CLARK?
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
by spants on Feb 3, 2010 9:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
For some reason I read that as "YOU HEAR THAT DICK CLARK?"
I was going to say that was spants’ worst stabbing EVER
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
I fear for a day this summer when neither Hrabosky or Horton can make it to the park
and we end up having a Horton-Clark broadcast.
Of course the plus to all this is that one of them will probably end up eating the other.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
GAH!
McLaughlin-Clark broadcast!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
He was at your house
putting on hats.
by Mister Eff on Feb 3, 2010 9:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So if my nightmare scenario happens, we will know who to blame?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Or just imagine
a Miklasz/Clark postgame show. Now there’s an eat or be eaten situation.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 4, 2010 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
well it looks like I won't be sleeping tonight
thanks a lot
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
So you don't like your studio guys
to be orange and look like they have a future at right tackle?
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
It was weird when I watched a post game last year
and hadn’t seen him since stock footage of when he was playing… Holy crap that was a bit of a shock…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
You guys (gals) are harsh
they are paid to talk not to play ball.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
Nice to see you've resorted to hitting women...
you stay classy Flim
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
by ducttape16 on Feb 4, 2010 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I would never hit a girl
But God damn I would shake the shit out of one.
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 4, 2010 12:03 AM EST up reply actions
You forgot the / jackass
no offense
by vivaelpujols on Feb 4, 2010 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
what if they had nice personalities even though they are generous?
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
yeah, well he can't talk either
If you’re gonna be be a TV guy, you probably shouldn’t say “you know” after like every sentence ( or whatever his freakin’ catchphrase was. Really, whose idea was it to give the guy a job?)
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
So there's a reason they kept the cameras off of him?
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
It's a surreal experience
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
Verlander signs up for 5/80
think I’d rather have King Felix for 5/78
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
Hmm.
I think I probably would, too. Close call, though.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 3, 2010 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
I'll take AW for 6/36.
Yeah, Mo.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Feb 3, 2010 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This makes me think about the difficulties SF
is having in getting an agreement done with Lincecum. They want to pay him $8 mil for the next year, and he wants $13 mil. I know these are arb. years, but the guy’s a a 2-time CY winner, for GOB’s sake. 13×5 = 65 mil. Who wouldn’t want Timmy on that kind of K? Is he an injury risk? Maybe. Is he a “head” case? Probably. Still, he’s one of the 3 best pitchers in the NL right now, so why is SF balking? They need to get him signed to a long-term K.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 3, 2010 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
Lincecum has refused to sign long term.
they’ve been trying for years.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Hadn't heard that.
Well, he is a head case, after all. Either that, or he’s really, really sure that he a) won’t get a bad, or even career-ending injury; b) won’t fall of a cliff; or c) will get beaucoup bucks from the Evil Empire. Actually, assuming a) and b), c) seems likely.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 3, 2010 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
dude just has avacados.
gotta respect that.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Feb 4, 2010 12:02 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I'm really hoping this avocado thing sticks. I quite like it.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 4, 2010 12:32 AM EST up reply actions
It would be a double meme
I can’t see robots being happy about that…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
avocados...
sticking… MUST RESIST!
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
by spants on Feb 4, 2010 1:01 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Did you know that the company that owns Trader Joe's also owns ALDI?
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
yes but sadly
No Traders Joes around me
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 4, 2010 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
I like Aldi's
It is just so cheap compared to everything else
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 4, 2010 1:18 AM EST up reply actions
I've picked up some decent peppercorn bacon there.
Plus, they’ll randomly have good deals on Smart Balance or gourmet items.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
*of=off
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2010 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
Seriously now... can you explain why "G" and "g" are the same letters even though they look different?
ha ha ha indeed, this is humorous.
by BuzzKillington on Feb 3, 2010 8:50 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
It's good for some things......
it’s also an * half way house.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Ya, I get EI every season as well
So I don’t watch it during the season really, but like you said I like watching the old games…the prime 9’s, or just winter leagues like now. And its free, so there’s that.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
I have decided there are no good ones in baseball anyway
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
not too familiar with SQL but
are you having a formatting problem with time?
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
I'll just tell you guys what I am trying to do
Pitch f/x records a time stamp on each pitch thrown. The format for said stamp is:
YYMMDD_HHMMSS
What I want to do, is to find the time between pitches thrown for each pitch. So I subtract the time stamp in pitch_id x from pitch_id x+1. Here’s an example:
091026_000115 – 091026_000047
So I need a way for SQL to identify what each number is supposed to represent (as well as disregarding the _).
by vivaelpujols on Feb 3, 2010 11:58 PM EST up reply actions
That's awesome.
Sadly, I have no idea how to help you.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
How about break it up into two columns
One for “date” and one for “time”…that way you can group all your times by date, and then you should be able to subtract times relatively easily.
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Feb 4, 2010 12:14 AM EST up reply actions
Great...
How do I break it up into two columns?
by vivaelpujols on Feb 4, 2010 12:24 AM EST up reply actions
Actually that wouldn't work very well
You’d have to edit the table to have separate columns, then re-format the data to fit into the new table schema. It would probably require a buttload of work.
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Feb 4, 2010 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
I don't really do this kind of stuff in SQL, but I'm pretty sure these are the functions you need
You first need to convert your strings into dates using STR_TO_DATE. Assuming your hours are 0..23, your format will be ‘%y%m%d_%H%i%s’ (read here for other format options).
Once the strings are converted, you can use TIMEDIFF to subtract the times from each other.
You can then use TIME_TO_SEC to convert the time into a single number on which you can perform normal operations.
by brackenthebox on Feb 4, 2010 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
NPR has the new massive attack album
it’s a big departure from their other stuff, but it’s pretty awesome
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 3, 2010 9:15 PM EST reply actions
I was worried the tubes would be full
by Harknights on Feb 4, 2010 12:29 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Oh crap
Rotoworld has picked up Strauss’ blurb about a Pujols extension negotiation and ran with it. How many times this week will we hear from the sports networks that the Cards have no chance?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
i was going to post a link up about it
Than I saw it was from Strauss.
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 3, 2010 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
it was in one of Struassies Q & A's
those are nothing but blurbs
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
ah
i didn’t know he did a new chat
i’ll read through it now
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
i guess he has a penchant for bat-shit crazy nicknames
i knew there was a reason i didn’t like him…
Heaven has brick walls and St. Peter is a red bird.
by EinFesteBusch on Feb 3, 2010 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
he gives you a reason not to like him every freakin week
that’s why I like him so much, cuz I really hate liking him.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I do declare faith in the Church of Razzle
So obviously, I think Colby will start out fireburningintheoutfield hot during ST and will finally be able to hit lefties. That in itself would be a tremendous and welcome surprise and would definitely temper some of the TLR tendencies towards platooning
For pitchers…eeesh mang, I don’t know. Maybe Franklin? But he sucks, so that can’t work. Eh screw it. Franklin it is.
"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
Proud Contributor to the Night of the Longest Train Wreck Ever 9/10-9/11/09
i'm not worried about colby v LHP
or at least his .184 BABIP v LHP tells me not to be. i believe. that is absurdly unlucky
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Well, we know he can hit them at least on occasion
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 3, 2010 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
oh, al
“we just hope he doesn’t get too home run conscious. don’t try to have the power of ankiel and duncan”
also, if lilly is the only lefty he hits well, i’m okay
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
*
* * *
and not sarcastic at all
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
My favorites are Waking the Baby and Playing with Baby.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
I have been tempted to Wash and Calm the baby like that.
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
by The Continental on Feb 4, 2010 12:25 AM EST up reply actions
hahah!
testing baby’s bottle is pretty hillarious, also the diaper one wtf
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 4, 2010 1:16 AM EST up reply actions
That is awesome
I say this as a parent
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Do you guys remember when Danup
Asked about what we thought about that write up about VEB? Well this is why he asked
if it ever reaches Goold's blog, we're all doomed!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
yeah
it’s hard to wonder if the tigers didn’t overpay for a guy had a 2.80 FIP season following 4 consecutive 4+ FIP seasons
i’ve always though he was a cy yound contender type, but this could turn out to be not such a great signing
plus, he’s 27. seems like he wanted the felix hernandez deal and he got it, but felix is quite a bit better pitcher and way younger in pitcher years
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
it is
always a crapshoot but I would rather have this contract than the miggy one seriously that empanda looks like he ate dmitri young
Я виключаю ти, сука
I don't think Felix is better at all
Felix wasn’t that great before 09 either. FanGraph’s FIP WAR (which is park adjusted – Safeco is a huge pitchers park remember) has each of them worth the following (07-09):
Felix: 4.1, 3.9, 6.9
Verlander: 4.1, 3.4, 8.2
Based on that, it looks like Verlander is the better pitcher going forward, although they are pretty much the same. Felix is younger, yes, but Verlander’s 27 next year – definitely in his prime.
I don’t think either one is a great deal (too much money and years to be handing out to pitchers, given the injury risks), but I don’t think that the deals are much different at all.
right, verlander is signed through his prime
he’s in his prime now
felix is 23. he’s pre-prime. he was putting up 4 wins when he was 19. i think it’s a much better bet that felix’s true talent resembles his ’09 than that verlander is his ’09 counterpart
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
you see, kids,
this is why we do not use drugs
counterpart = incarnation
don’t ask because i don’t know
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I agree with you.
I think Felix is the better pitcher and the better deal.
"Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown." - tom s.
I don't think either of the two season represent the players true talent level
That’s why you weigh previous seasons and regress to the mean. Using simple Marcels, which includes all of that + a generic aging adjustment, Verlander projects for a 3.60 FIP next year and Felix for a 3.56 FIP.
My rule of thumb is that to discount Marcels in favor of a better projection system, you need to show that A) certain components of a pitchers performance need to be weighed differently (like when Pineiro learned a new pitch that almost certainly caused the huge spike in grounders), or B) a players scouting information differs from the stats.
I understand your point about aging, but Marcel’s takes that into account and still sees no difference between the two based on performance thus far.
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