Care to make a bet?
by azruavatar on Feb 19, 2010 10:01 AM EST
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PrintWandering around SBN, I saw this fanpost from Sky Kalkman on Beyond the Box Score. The premise is that individuals can make bets (typically performance related) about the upcoming with Sky for avatar changes and or signature line changes. I generally avoid gambling because of my addictive personality and its addictive nature but this seems relatively harmless. I've also made some terrible predictions in the past (Buerhle's arm falling off; Schmidt's arm staying attached) so I've got a sketchy enough track record that it should be fun.
I'm willing to make bets with individuals on a variety of things Cardinal related or not. The only qualifiers I have are: 1) the "awards" for winning or losing cannot be (overly) lewd or uncouth and 2) no money changes hands. So if anyone's interested, we can exchange bets here. I'll likely have a hard time resisting prospect related bets and getting me to change my avatar will be a harder threshold.
Any takers?
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A bet for the 5th spot in the rotation
I don’t know if I should be the one that proposes which pitcher I bet it will be and what the odds should be, but I’d love to see some kind of community odds on who gets the fifth spot:
KMac
Jaime
Hawkesworth
“Tricky Dick” Hill
Hired gun at the end of spring training (Smoltz or other)
I’d think the first two are the best options with KMac getting the LaRussa annointment so far, so if I had to bet, I’d say, KMac then Jaime as the 6th, but I don’t know if I like ’dem odds.
I think it'll be KMac
but I won’t bet on this because there’s too much decision calculus that I’m not privy too.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
kmac will start the year in the role
he’ll struggle sometime after the all star break and jaime will take it from there
they will comprise no 4 and 5 in ’11
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I'm going to bet
that Garcia forces Tony, against his inclinations, to install him in the rotation. By mid season he will be thought of as the third starter. How’s that for February optimism?
by easy on Feb 20, 2010 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 8 recs
I'll give you four weeks to one week avatar odds on that.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
I think easy came from the future.
That is what happened… EXACTLY. Not just close, but EXACTLY right.
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
I bet you a copy of any Cardinals game this season
that Gotay starts 60 games at a variety of positions, most of them being at 3B.
Sometimes, I crack myself up.
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 19, 2010 11:45 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
sadly
I can totally see this happening
I'm gonna need a whole lot more franklins if Franklin is our closer this year
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 19, 2010 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
this is tempting those GOB's
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I can also see this happening
I believe Gotay will be the ghost of Joe Thurston.
Check out my sports blog!
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
SIGN FELIPE LOPEZ & JOHN SMOLTZ!
Tempting because of the word "starting"
and how little faith I have in David Freese . . . but this is TLR we’re talking about.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
I'll bet you this little gambling contest leads to you
offering robot services outside of the Casino Queen at 3 in the morning and, ultimately, your demise, all by the All Star game.
by Mister Eff on Feb 19, 2010 11:55 AM EST reply actions 4 recs
where will the best play to stay
close to the Casino Queen circa 2010 All Star Break be? Pennzoil? Valvoline? Other recs?
by infallibleopiniongenerator on Feb 19, 2010 9:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So you're saying that I'll perish by ASB?
Because I don’t close shop outside the Casino Queen currently until 4am.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
craig's list still an option for bots?
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
Alright, let's do this.
Over/under on Colby Rasmus’ season OBP: .850. You make the call, Azru…if you’re wrong, you have to change your avatar to this. (Still robot related, at least…and I love it so much.)
"But I’m still hungry. I’ve got 10 fingers. There’s one that’s busy and I need nine more."
- Albert Pujols
by splhcb67 on Feb 19, 2010 5:06 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
And by OBP, clearly I mean OPS.
Fail.
"But I’m still hungry. I’ve got 10 fingers. There’s one that’s busy and I need nine more."
- Albert Pujols
I will bet...
10,000:1 (internet dollars of course). I have a friend named Kevin who lives in Scranton PA who said that if anyone ever gives you 10,000 to 1 odds, you take the bet no matter what it is.
O that's not hard at all.
I’m a huge fan of Rasmus and if you’d made me pick the over, I’d have been hard pressed. I’ll take the over on his projections for next year (.779 OPS) but the smart money is the under.
Bet: Under .850 for Rasmus
Az Loss: azru’s avatar for one week
Az Win: splhcb67’s avatar for one week
Think; It's not illegal yet.
Pleasure doing business with you.
And, to be completely honest, my head tells me the under, too…considering there’s nothing really at stake here, I just wanted to make something obviously enticing, yet vaguely (key word) possible to go either way. (Oh, and you’ll probably have to remind me about this come October, because I’m pretty sure there’s not much chance I’ll remember it. Fair warning.)
"But I’m still hungry. I’ve got 10 fingers. There’s one that’s busy and I need nine more."
- Albert Pujols
Looks like the robot is in for an avatar change
Come on Colby, hang on to that .856 OPS today.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
that said
i would wager that it’ll be somewhere in the lowers .800s
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
yeah, me too
I just don’t see Colby getting on base enough to OPS over .850. I think he’ll see more lefties this year, too, so, overall, I’m not sure he’ll massively exceed his .779 projection.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 22, 2010 5:53 AM EST up reply actions
HA!! Colby laughs at your pessimism.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Yadi hooked on speed
Hey Azru, how about this one.
Yadier Molina – swift of foot – shocks the world and manages 12 stolen bases next year. Care to take that bet?
i'll take that.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Feb 21, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
i'll take it because last year
he managed 9.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Prior to last year
Yadi had stolen a total of four bases in his career. But I think he’s on the verge of a Vince Coleman like renaissance. Maybe by 2012, he’ll be stealing 25 bags a year…
Nah. Nevermind.
Mickey Mouse for
you.
May I suggest Steam Boat Willie?
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
I'll bet even money....
Pujols hits between .327 and .338
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
He's not a maching.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
I'll bet he's outside that range.
I win – you change your avatar back to the dead mother picture.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
Done...
except my mother is still alive.
We need to sticky this thread.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
time for the dead mother.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Ludwick
Outside of the top 6 Cardianls WAR for 2010
by I miss Jack Buck on Feb 21, 2010 4:58 PM EST reply actions
Basically betting....
that waino, carp, lego, and pujols stay healthy, and 2 other players have better seasons than ludwick
by I miss Jack Buck on Feb 23, 2010 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
Penny, Molina and Colby would be the favourites, I think
it’s hard to see anyone else bettering Luddy if healthy. Maybe Freese and Lohse are possibles.
Yeah, in retrospect, this doesn’t seem too far-fetched…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 25, 2010 5:07 AM EST up reply actions
Does this count even with Ludwick getting traded?
Cause was 5th in Cards WAR
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
Ryan Franklin spends more than 30 days on the DL this season.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
Right
I don’t think Franklin gets hurt but I do think he’ll be terrible this season.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
i thought you meant the "down low" and had a whole other theory about ryan.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
I'll throw an opening series one at you.
The Reds win the first three game series to start the season over the Cards. What’s the wager?
I once defended the managerial styles of Jerry Narron after a Reds loss in a bar after a long night of drinking. I wish I could say that I don't remember doing that.
www.nextyearisouryear.blogspot.com
Sure -- I'll take this bet.
It’s pretty marginal – the Cardinals have the better team but the Reds will have home field advantage so it’s probably something around a coin flip for either team to win.
Bet: Reds win the opening series against Cardinals.
If Reds lose, your signature becomes “Colby Rasmus > Jay Bruce” until the teams meet again at the end of April.
If Reds win, my signature becomes “I love Dusty Baker” until the teams meet again at the end of April.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
I like it
I’m down
I once defended the managerial styles of Jerry Narron after a Reds loss in a bar after a long night of drinking. I wish I could say that I don't remember doing that.
www.nextyearisouryear.blogspot.com
I'll make an avatar related bet with you:
Ludwick’s first half OPS exceeds .900 (by first half I mean to the ASB, even if that’s more than half the games played in the season). I get the over. You get the under.
If I win, you have to change your avatar to this .
I you win, you get to pick my avatar. . Clearly, standards of decency apply. :-)
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
good find on the avatar
hope he takes the bet.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Absolutely taking.
And I’ll pick an appropriate avatar since I’ll want it to be recognizable and germane — I’ll have to look around for something appropriate.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
Hitler?
Oh wait, I didn’t see the “e”…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 25, 2010 5:08 AM EST up reply actions
And before anyone says it
yes, I know.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 25, 2010 5:08 AM EST up reply actions
I figured you would
but I’m bullish on Ludwick having a first half similar to 2008, because he’s not going to be asked to hit behind Pujols and I think Mac is going to help him a lot.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I'm curious to see what your
avatar will be.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
shall we have a lineups betting pool?
closest guess to Tony’s actual number of lineups
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
he was actually only middle of the pack last year
indians had the most, though both were over 100. so i guess it seems like a lot to us, but isn’t.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
it might be a harder estimate this year
if we can’t go by past years’ data
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Feb 25, 2010 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
I would think it would be very injury-dependent
I wonder if any team has ever fielded 162 different lineups.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Is this even possible with a 25 man roster?
Considering that you can really only field 18-19 guys on a lineup card as the others would be relief pitchers.
It would take some doing, that’s for sure.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Not sure what constitutes a lineup exactly, but either way, mathematical possibility is not a problem here
There are 43,758 ways to choose 8 out of 18 players (ignoring order)
For each set of 8, there are 40,320 orderings to consider.
Realistically, many of those combinations/orderings will never be used, but it’s definitely “possible” with a 25 man roster.
by brackenthebox on Feb 26, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
plus a 25 man roster
changes here and there over the year, and then has september callups
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Yes
but clearly there are limitations on those 18 players. Certain ones cannot play certain positions (like catcher, SS, 2B, CF) and others will be limited to certain positions (like both C). I just think it would be pretty difficult to have a different lineup every single game, with no duplications while being practical (in other words, TRYING to win baseball games not just trying to set some crazy “most lineups” record) unless you carried a roster with 3 catchers and 4 guys who could play SS, and that violates the practicality concept.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Well, even considering that you leave the pitcher's spot fixed
as well as your #3 hitter and your leadoff guy, that leaves 6 remaining positions to move around, and
6*5*4*3*2 = 720 batting orders to pick from, and that’s not even dipping into the bench, or factoring in injuries.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
In 2008 Tony used 140 batting orders
per b-r and 148 in 2007. 2007 had 125 different defensive lineups (excl pitchers)
That number just went up
in the past 24 hours.
by WyoCardsFan on Feb 27, 2010 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
Opening day starter?
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
christ
how ’bout a little warning, river rat.
can that even be bet? gotta be carp (i think, unless…).
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I wish you had taken this.....
You would look good with that avatar.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
PA's for Floppy
I’ll take under 500 PAs for Felipe. IMO, Tony won’t use him in the OF except in emergency circumstances and Tony will cycle the IF through to keep everyone fresh similar to how he managed the OF for the first half of 2009.
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