Friday Notes
by DanUpBaby on Feb 12, 2010 6:00 AM EST
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PrintI am happier, perhaps happier than I should be, to see that SIERA, Baseball Prospectus's new run estimator, looks both accurate and worthwhile. As I've said before, when I started blogging—and this wasn't a long time ago, except in internet years—Baseball Prospectus was the sabermetric website of first resort, and as superior as the current situation is I miss those halcyon, VORP-quoting days. Here's hoping these new stats come with a more usable website.
At Play a Hard Nine Erik has already run the numbers on the Cardinals—good news for people who love Jason Motte, by which I mean, presumably, everyone on this website—but for now I'm more interested in the philosophy, specifically how close it comes to encapsulating my understanding of the Cardinals' philosophy:
Thus, these four points have shown us that strikeouts have a diminishing return as you accrue more of them, ground balls have an increasing return the higher your tally, and ground balls are more beneficial to pitchers who allow more walks or balls in play, especially because fly balls are more detrimental to pitchers who allow more runners on base.
The Cardinals, or my caricature of the Cardinals—there's Dave Duncan, with a huge head, and he's yelling "MORE GROUNDBALLS" at Anthony Reyes, who also has a huge head, and is crying—might take this a little too far. But this seems like a good way to describe the Cardinals' bargain basement pitchers of choice. The ones with high strikeout rates and nothing else always seem to slip by, to our chagrin, but for strikeouts-are-fascist traditionalists Duncan and La Russa have always seemed surprisingly sanguine about pitchers with terrible control, so long as they are—or at least appear to be—groundball pitchers.
Incidentally, this makes my sentimental favorite bad-reliever candidate for a Spring Training invite look slightly better, so I am on board. Mike MacDougal, Mac the Ninth or Eighth or Whenever, Really, had an ERA of 3.60 last year after catching on with the Nationals, despite striking out and walking 5.6 batters each per nine innings. His xFIP—4.74. His SIERA—4.64. But it's an exciting 4.64!
Obviously I am not quite serious here, or maybe just-kidding-but-seriously, because I really am, against all reason, a Mike MacDougal fan. ERA substitutes are already really good; except for exceptional cases, new ones aren't going to tell us a lot of things we don't know. But I like the way SIERA suggests we think—the S and I stand for skill-interactive, and with all the information we now have, updating in real time, at our disposal, the series of articles on the stat, though a little over-long, have some interesting ideas on how to parse it.
#
So, did everybody have a good Truck Day? I'm torn on the divide Strauss mentions between teams that make a big deal about Truck Day and teams whose home newspapers make a big deal about how there is no big deal about Truck Day. I am, of course, starved by now for any and all baseball pomp and ceremony; it's been a long time, and it's going to be an excruciating month and a half until there's a Championship Season going on. But I am leery of anything that is celebrated primarily by the Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox.
Nevertheless, between the Jupiter bylines and the surprise wrist surgery all the signs are here: The offseason, at least the part of the offseason that sucks the most, is nearly over. To all who have braved it by talking here about baseball, TV, obscure music, and image macros (probably not in that order)—thanks.
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Unrelated Personal Story...
My 7 year old daughter comes home from school yesterday and is all excited to show me some baseball cards she made a trade for at school (she unloaded some pokemon). She’s got 20 or more cards but proudly tells me she put the only Cardinal in the deal on top for me to see.
I shed a single tear and may have whispered ‘more groundballs’.
Hey Ump!
by paposse on Feb 12, 2010 8:40 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
haha
well, reyes did pitch good for us at one time…
Check out my sports blog!
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
SIGN FELIPE LOPEZ & JOHN SMOLTZ!
by zoomzoomj88 on Feb 12, 2010 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
not that one-hitter against the marlins
that ended up a 1-0 loss b/c that one hit was a homer. wasn’t it against florida?
Check out my sports blog!
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
SIGN FELIPE LOPEZ & JOHN SMOLTZ!
by zoomzoomj88 on Feb 12, 2010 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
Wasn't it the White Sox?
Jim Thome hit a solo homer, I believe….too lazy to look it up right now, but I also think that was the series where that lefty-whose-name-I-refuse-to-say-out-loud-but-he-cost-us-Dan-Haren allowed 13 or 14 ER the next night.
" Baseball is reassuring. It makes me feel as if the world is not going to blow up." - Sharon Olds, This Sporting Life, 1987
by Futility Infielder on Feb 12, 2010 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
we allowed a gazzilion runs in the two other games
only to have the kid throw a gem and still lose…..
painful series that was.
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
Resident malcontented betamale
the most painful thing about that series
was that it cost Jim Edmonds the HOF, imho.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
how?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
that's boog
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
nice sig, sleepy.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
strictly speaking, it's not really John Cale
that song was a cover version. Excellent one, mind you.
I’m surprised there’s so many Cale fans on here – I’ve always thought of him as a VERY niche artist. He’s always been one of my faves. Jonathan Richman cover, I think.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 13, 2010 8:39 AM EST up reply actions
Chicago WhiteSox
Jim Thome homer in the 9th, if memory serves.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 12, 2010 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
Ah. The 7th. Near enough.
Whatever happened to Freddy Garcia? In other news, that was some no-true-outcomes game he had going for 8 innings – one walk and two strikeouts, pretty Duncan-esque.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 12, 2010 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
Fraddy Garcia had labrum surgery a few years ago.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
Attended that game
Man, he was sharp.
"But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in." - Albert Pujols 8/20/09, base-clogger.
Yes
I was at this game.
It was a soul-crusher.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
wasn't it his first start?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
No.
His first start was in late 2005, at Milwaukee, and resulted in a 6-2 victory, I believe, with the runs coming on one really bad pitch to Bill F. Hall.
The 2006 gem was, though, Reyes’ first game after being recalled.
Make way for the Homo Superior.
by the red baron on Feb 12, 2010 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah I recall that game, and I wondered if King Anthony was in fact . . .
. . . not to be preferred to young Adam Wainwright. . . .
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
Damn, we were sure all ready with the answer to that question...
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 12, 2010 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
and i got served... multiple times.
Check out my sports blog!
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
SIGN FELIPE LOPEZ & JOHN SMOLTZ!
by zoomzoomj88 on Feb 12, 2010 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
Where's Jack Wilson?
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
not sure about this
maybe someone can verify
but i think it was the white sox/jim thome
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
this is the start of a baseball movie starring Kevin Costner, right?
Lick it—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Feb 12, 2010 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
Clear the mechanism*
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
That's great
“…strikeouts have a diminishing return as you accrue more of them…”
The flip-side of that is that walks have an increasing accrual of return as you allow fewer of them and that’s the key to the Duncan philosophy as I understand it. Groundballs are great because they’re at low risk of landing in the bleachers, but if you can buy a BB/9 reduction for the price of a K/9 you’ve made a significant improvement that’s plausible for a lot of pitchers who’ve mysteriously struggled beyond what would be expected given their stuff.
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
Yeah I can definitely see the rationale
if you give up nothing but groundballs (taking it to the extreme), it’s going to be pretty hard to ever score more than 1 run in an inning, and that’ll probably take three of them escaping infield gloves.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 12, 2010 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
57,949 ground balls in 2009
resulting in a slash line of .237 / .237 / .258 / .495
papa dunc is on to something here :)
by ball in play on Feb 12, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
Well yeah
But if I had to guess, I’d say a strikeout resulted in a .000 / .002 / .000 / .002 line.
Not afraid to nitpick
This bit of data matches up nicely with your username
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
Jo-el
Looks like SIERA still like Joel to have a good season. If he were still here and put up those numbers I’d be happy.
Hey Ump!
Also
this was linked on the same page. If ever we needed genetic engineering, it’s now.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 12, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
all due to the bats' built-up tolerance
humans just don’t drink enough is the moral of the story?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
that's how I'm pitching it to the wife, anyway.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 12, 2010 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
MacDougal
I like MacDougal as well. A buddy of mine sat at a bar in Lee’s Summit and drank with him once when he was a Royal. He was a little quiet, we didn’t really make it known that we knew who he was, and fun was had by all.
I need to re-read the SIERA articles but
I still feel like they haven’t contextualized the results yet. Or perhaps I haven’t internalized the context. One reason why I never liked tRA was the adamant usage of the RA scale. I understand the debate between RA and ER but the fact is that most viewers understand the ER scale better. tERA as Fangraphs now uses it makes vastly more sense on an intuitive and immediate level.
I also wish that SIERA would have run through some y-t-y correlations as that’s my preferred evaluative method.
I just need to spend a lot more time digesting it to see if it’s really worth looking at SIERA rather than the far simpler and more intuitive FIP. I hope everyone makes an informed decision before wildly jumping on board and quoting SIERA all over the place.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
I thought the robot
didn’t like avatar changes. ;)
It's an avatar update
Same robot, different outfit.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 12, 2010 9:28 AM EST up reply actions
That's true.
So I guess the robot is in the clear on this one.
I've gone through several bender picture iterations.
Also, I’ve got a rock to throw at your avatar-less glass house.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
BOOM!!!
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 12, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
I'm still waiting for you to find the drunken Bender riding a unicorn one
but maybe you’re saving that one for after a World Championship
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I have long been a critic of FIP. . .
but from the description here and my (admittedly poor) attempts to wade through the SIERA articles, I worry about SIERA’s ability to predict future performance.
From memory, I had thought that FIP was an attempt to predict a pitcher’s future performance by isolating those aspects of the pitcher’s performance that were more repeatable (i.e. K-rate, BB-rate, HR-rate) than others (i.e. BABIP).
SIERA seems to me to be seeking to “game” the numbers in a way to more closely accord with our idea that pitchers who see a lot of success thanks to a groundball-inducing approach are just as successful and just as capable of repeating that success as pitchers who succeed thanks to Ks and BBs.
My biggest problem with FIP is that it is often misused by those who try to use it to prove that a pitcher’s historical performance has been better than other pitchers’ historical performances. I don’t think that it identifies “luck” or even “team defense” accurately enough to use it for that purpose. Another problem is that it tends to unfairtly regress all pitchers to the mean, and those with the groundball-inducing/walk-avoiding profile more than others.. xFIP fixes that to a degree, since it uses batted-ball run values, but it still regresses pitchers on the extreme to a mean.
The nagging concern that I have about SIERA (and I can’t adequately explain why) is that it may be better suited to isolate luck than FIP or xFIP, but with less predictive value.
These are merely my early impressions.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 12, 2010 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
i don't understand this comment at all.
FIP doesn’t innaccurately depict team defense or luck – it doesn’t depict them at all. It’s components are bb, k, and hr.
While much complaint is made about GB pitchers being diminished by FIP, it seems like in practice good GB pitchers do very well, precisely because to be a good GB pitcher you must be very stingy with your walks.
XFIP doesn’t add any batted ball run value to the underlying FIP calculations – it simply takes FIP and assumes an ordinary HR/FB rate. One of the nice things about FIP and xFIP is that their guts are very simple.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
by tom s. on Feb 12, 2010 11:28 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
The idea behind FIP. . .
is that it only measures those components that are within a pitcher’s control, and it deems those pitcher-controlled components as Ks, HRs, and BBs. Therefore, put very simply, the difference between ERA and FIP is fielding + luck.
With respect to xFIP, I stand corrected. I was thinking of tRA, rather than xFIP. My apologies. I like xFIP even less than FIP, given that I think that it increases the regression to the mean effect.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 12, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
i guess i misunderstood your comment.
“Inaccurate” threw me, because that makes it sound like FIP is trying to capture it and failing.
Why would we want a pitching statistic that incorporates luck and team defense? Neither say anything about a pitcher’s true talent nor how he is likely to pitch in the future. What you’re describing seems like a feature of FIP, not a bug.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
by tom s. on Feb 12, 2010 12:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Oh, I think it's important to isolate luck and team defense. . .
although that’s slightly imprecise, too. I think it’s more important to isolate luck than it is team defense, even though the two are intertwined.
A pitcher can pitch to his defense to a degree, and to his park to a greater degree. Heck, that’s one of the reasons that the Dave Duncan approach has been so successful.
My problems with FIP are that: (1) I don’t believe that it does a particularly good job of isolating (really, eliminating) luck, (2) in attempting to eliminate luck, it also eliminates those aspects of defense that a pitcher has the ability to influence (not control, admittedly), and (3) it regresses heavily to the mean at both ends of the spectrum.
I just don’t think FIP is a particularly useful stat that can be used with any precision. Using it to compare pitchers is the exact mirror image of trying to evaluate hitters using TTO%, if you think about it, and I don’t know anyone who would assign to TTO% the importance that many have assigned to FIP in evaluating pitchers.
FIP does have some predictive qualities, but only as it relates to the three true outcomes.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 12, 2010 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
How exactly does FIP not isolate luck?
Is there much luck involved in Ks, BBs, or HRs (outside of HR/FB% stuff)? No? Then it’s taking luck out of the equation. And then it’s been demonstrated beyond all doubt that those three true outcomes are a lot more predictive to future run prevention performance (not just TTO performance) than just looking at ERA.
You don’t use TTO% to evaluate hitters because hitters control their BABIP and SLGBIP a lot more than pitchers do.
Not afraid to nitpick
It isolates more than luck. . .
that’s the problem.
And I agree that FIP is more predictive than ERA. I disagree that it should be used retrospectively to determine which pitcher “pitched better”. I just think that it’s predictive power is of a very general nature. All else being equal, a pitcher with a FIP of 4.00 is a good bet to be better next season than a pitcher with a FIP of 6.00. The same is lessl likely to be true when you are talking about FIP differences of .25 to .5 runs. I just think that it’s a pretty blunt stat that is being treated too often as if it is a precise predictor of pitcher performance, or worse, measure of (past) pitcher performance.
And I think that more advanced metrics like tRA and maybe SIERA would be more predictive than FIP.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 12, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
FIP is used because it's amazingly simple
You know exactly what it is doing, and it’s on a familiar scale. tRA is better than FIP, and it’s equally as intuitive, but it’s harder to calculate and prone to errors stemming mis-classification of batted balls. In my book the two are equal in their usefulness.
SIERA is impossible to understand why the formula is doing what it is doing. It is built off of a regression, and not intuitive to understand. In my opinion, it has to be a lot more accurate than FIP or tRA to be as useful.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 12, 2010 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Didn't they claim that SIERA
specifically wasn’t regression based which is (part of) why they wouldn’t test it against tRA*.
Also, I can’t recall seeing anything that shows tRA is more than slightly better than FIP.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
better in what way?
I would say that for measuring past performance, it has to be at least a bit better because it includes more inputs. (Yes, I understand that the batted ball data inputs may be subject to bias, and therefore more imputs does not necessarily = better.)
For predicting future performance, FIP is probably better in general, but I suspect that it undervalues “pitch to contact” adherents, whereas tRA does not (as much).
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 12, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
I have a preference for predictive measures
but even as a backward looking metric I’m not sure I’ve seen evidence that it’s an improvement. Apologies for me not giving a shit what you think should be better.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
If you don't care. . .
why do you reply?
As a backward looking measure of results, ERA is better than FIP.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 12, 2010 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
of results? maybe. of pitching results? i doubt it.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
So J.A. Happ was considerably better than Justin Verlander on a rate basis last year?
Not afraid to nitpick
Depends on what stat. .
Happ was better at keeping runs off the board, in a better hitters’ park, but in front of a better team defense.
Verlander was better at striking out hitters and keeping them off base via the walk. From the batted ball data, Verlander may have given up harder contact than Happ, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on that, given how close the LD% rates are, and given the relative unreliability of bated ball data.
Happ benefitted from slightly better bullpen support than Verlander.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 12, 2010 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
Are we really having the ERA conversation again?
If you’re really going to equivocate that Happ was the better pitcher last year rather than Verlander, then I have to question whatever evaluation you are doing. Happ got lucky with stranding an insane amount of runners. If we know that pitchers have little control over timing and sequencing (and LOB%) why would we credit him (like ERA does) for that effort?
Think; It's not illegal yet.
ERA involves defense, hitting, and BIP luck
It’s true, you can look back and say that Pitcher X truly did allow Y runs. But you can’t really say how much of that was due to luck (several unfortunate bounces of the ball, simply misplay by an OFer that isn’t called an error, so on and so forth). You’re essentially blaming or crediting a pitcher based not on his own skills or performance but on extra variables.
You can pick apart FIP because it isn’t perfect, but ERA is worse. It makes no sense to toss the better metric for the inferior one just because the better one doesn’t measure everything we’d like it to.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 12, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not advocating tossing FIP in favor of ERA. . .
but I’m also not in favor of using FIP as a substitute for ERA when judging past performance.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 12, 2010 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
That's pretty close to what you're doing
We’re talking about measuring past performance and you’re arguing FIP doesn’t catch everything you want it to, so ERA is what we should still be using, or at least it’s better for measuring past performance. Which is what you said:
as a backward looking measure of results, ERA is better than FIP.
Which is what i argued against and is what we’re talking about. If you want to say that tRA is better go ahead, but ERA? No. Not now not ever.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 12, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
I understand what you are saying but
ERA is not just judging a pitcher like something xFIP would. ERA judges the pitcher, his luck, his defense, and his park. While xFIP tries to take these out of the equation to best judge the player individually.
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 12, 2010 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
I care about which is actually the better stat.
I just don’t care what your intuition tells you or what you think the best stat is. And based your comments regarding ERA below, I was right not to care.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
yeah
but think is not illegal yet
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 12, 2010 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
pretty good
a rec
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
FIP leaves out a lot, obviously
It doesn’t accurately capture how well people pitch w/ vs. w/o people on base (in isolation anyway), for example. However, guys who don’t strike a ton of guys out, but DO walk a small number of hitters and give up a small number of HR’s will have low FIPs (see Piniero, Joel and Carpenter, Chris). It’s about as close as we can come right now to isolate what pitchers do and don’t do w/o any help or harm from their defense. Until there is a particularly good way to quantify luck and defense, the best option is to chuck it completely for now until a better model arises. This isn’t a finished product, it’s the best we’ve got now.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 12, 2010 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
tRA is a little better than FIP
It’s not nearly as easy to calculate yourself, and impossible in some instances.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 12, 2010 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
which data
does statcorner and fangraphs use for their tRA?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
FanGraphs uses BIS, StatCorner uses Gameday (what I use)
They are both about as good (although there is no real way to tell), with BIS probably being slightly better as it’s marketed to teams.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 12, 2010 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
There was a THT link that showed it was better than FIP at predicting future performance
And it definitely is better. It’s the same exact concept as FIP, except instead of assuming all BIP are equal it splits it up by value.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 12, 2010 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
FIP does a very good job of predicting
subsequent ERAs. It’s not exact but, on balance, it’s a very good predictor. There’s some regression (especially based on each pitcher’s events being equal) but that’s not a bad thing. Your list of problems doesn’t hold much water when you consider that FIP is one of the best estimators for future performance.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
Best as compared to what?
ERA? Sure.
WHIP? Probably.
Facial hair? Almost certainly.
It’s a Ford Taurus that is being touted by some as a Lamborghini. ERA is an Escort, or maybe a Yugo.
I don’t have anything against the Ford Taurus. It’s a solid car, but it’s not the car I’m going to by for my rapidly approaching mid-life crisis phase of life.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 12, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
What's your alternative?
If the Taurus is the best vehicle out there, you buy a Taurus.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
i don't know...
if the Taurus is the best vehicle out there, i’m riding the bus.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
by IHeartBoog on Feb 12, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I assume this means you calculate a pitcher's RA using batting average against.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
by hazel on Feb 12, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
FIP answers this question and this question only
How well would this pitcher have pitched if timing and performance on balls in play were taken out of the equation
Obviously, FIP will underestimate those who have better than average ability to control run value on balls in play, or sequence their timing better. However, those skills are very hard to identify because the numbers that manifest them are influenced by so many things besides pitcher skill.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 12, 2010 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
Eh
it also underestimates the best pitchers and overestimates the worse pitchers.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 12, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
it's much easier counting numbers
although the expenses of living outside of one’s mother’s basement tend to pile up
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
How do you define good and bad?
What skills do the majority of good pitchers have that bad ones do not?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 12, 2010 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
As your question indicates. . .
the answer is different for different pitchers. That’s why I think a stat like FIP does not work well for all pitchers, particularly those that employ a ‘pitch-to-contact’ approach. It feels like SIERA has been developed to fairly evaluate those pitchers, but I’m not sure that it can adequately do that without introducing more error into its evaluation of other pitchers.
Put simply, good pitchers have the skill to get more outs than bad pitchers and allow less baserunners than bad pitchers.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 12, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
And...
It’s been determined that most pitchers have little control on how they get outs/prevent baserunners in ways other than their ability in Ks, BBs and HRs. The other outs/baserunners are the result of luck/fielding in all but a few cases. Groundball/contact pitchers don’t have a significantly lower BABIP or any of that, so why should pitchers be credited for that in a single season of favorable variability in something out of their control?
Not afraid to nitpick
Little control is in the eye of the beholder, certainly
Voros McCracken’s original DIPs findings have been pretty thoroughly discredited.
I suspect that when we have HitFX, we will determine that pitchers have far more control than most envision today.
strikeouts > Infield flies > groundballs > fly balls > line drives
at least from a pitcher’s POV.
Groundball rate, in particular, is something over which pitchers can have a fair amount of control. Just because we cannot yet accurately measure the type of batted ball with any consistency does not mean that a pitcher’s ability to induce more groundballs (or infield flies, or line drives) doesn’t exist.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 12, 2010 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
And it isn't captured by ERA or ANY other metric due to all of the confounding factors
That’s why FIP, tRA, xFIP, SIERA all predict future performance better than ERA.
I’m getting a little sick of your shtick here. Nodody is saying FIP is perfect, or does what you think people say it does. I provided the exact defition above, and if have further complaints about FIP they should only be about whether or not they accurately measure the defition of itself.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 12, 2010 8:26 PM EST up reply actions
And what skills go into reducing baserunners?
Avoiding base runners isn’t really a skill… it’s a result. How do you get to the results no baserunner and an out vs. a baserunner and no out?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 12, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
By a VERY small amount
BaseRuns FIP adjusts for the concerns about FIP not being dynamic, however, the difference between it and the MUCH simpler FIP formula is very noticeable:
by vivaelpujols on Feb 12, 2010 8:23 PM EST up reply actions
it also underestimates the best pitchers and overestimates the worse pitchers.
Does it? During 2003, Eric Gagne gave up a NEGATIVE FIP against right-handed batters. So, you’re arguing that it UNDERestimated him during this period? Gagne was actually not only so good that he never gave up any runs to right-handers (despite having one home run hit against him!), but so good that he actually added runs to his own team with his pitching, according to FIP. And this is UNDER-rating him?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 15, 2010 5:26 AM EST up reply actions
seems like you're talking about
the inputs used
it’s still on a runs per 9 scale.
meaning, it’s not really any more difficult to understand tRA than it is FIP or ERA
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
No
But it’s not intuitive for people who are accustomed to the ERA scale to switch the RA scale.
Not afraid to nitpick
tRA is scaled to RA
FIP is scale to ERA. tERA is scaled to ERA.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 12, 2010 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
still
it’s still on a runs per 9 scale
none of them are hard to understand
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
just to report that Burwell
and that other guy had Leitch on their show, listened to his pretty good explanation of “new media” (that would be us), and then bashed him the minute he hung up. Something about Deadspin putting up photos of Mariotti because it wasn’t news (though Leitch said it was an internet meme joke☨). They were annoyed with free speech, you see… not enough checks and balances for their taste.
(☨ In my opinion, it’s telling that these * don’t even rate their own meme. Also, please don’t ask why I had it on. It’s a long, sordid story.)
What else… oh yeah, they used the example of a politically extremist blogger (with her own website and name, which they repeated over and over again) to prove that it’s all illogical sensationalism.
I’ll let y’all enjoy that last clause for a bit.
Lick it—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
BUT WE AREN'T PROFESSIONALS
NON-PROFESSIONALS CAN’T HAVE INFORMED OPINIONS
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
is this the HCWDB comment section?
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
the other thing I did while AFK
There was this Law and Order SVU marathon, and there was this episode: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1031382/fullcredits
Note the names after the detectives… haha, Mets fans.
Lick it—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
heh.
“Manny Beltran” has to be the winnar…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 12, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
and what a body count
Lick it—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Ode to the Colonel
There once was a pitcher named Todd
His post-game reactions quite odd
His pitching was sucky
He though it unlucky
Perhaps he’ll make the Giants’ squad
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
by IHeartBoog on Feb 12, 2010 11:56 AM EST reply actions 6 recs
I don't think the last line quite scans
not sure how to fix it, though…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 12, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
say it with a british accent...
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
nah. Just the same as you guys do.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 15, 2010 5:31 AM EST up reply actions
well, i can't wait to hear this
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
The emphasis on the word "make"
sort of throws off the beat of the line…even though it’s got 8 syllables like lines 1 and 2, the beat is different. If you don’t emphasize “make”, and instead emphasize “the”, you can shoe horn it in to make it scan better.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 12, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
Even so
it gets rec’d.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 12, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
ah, i see
when i wrote it, i imagined the emphasis on “Giants” – sort of like, he sucks for the Cardinals, maybe he’ll make the GIANTS squad.
oh well, i’m no professional limericist. just bored.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
It has one too many syllables
“Will he make the Giants’ squad?” scans better, but it’s probably not what you were looking for in terms of meaning.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 15, 2010 5:30 AM EST up reply actions
Hmmm maybe not too many syallables
what Gibby said above. Disregard.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 15, 2010 5:31 AM EST up reply actions
wow.
leave it to the stl media to make a mountain out of what appears to be a molehill. i hope his brother is right.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
very informative
thanks for digging that up. I’m sure there will be some who take the “but its wrist surgery, and everyone knows you don’t recover from wrist surgery” route. But, this piece leaves me optimistic.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
it's always nice to have information like this...
it tends to tamp down the nonsensical “ZOMG, the Cards’ medical staff is blowing it again!!” crowd.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 12, 2010 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
Is that crowd nonsensical?
Sincerely,
Ray Lankford, Mark Mulder, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, Troy Glaus, and a cast of many others
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 12, 2010 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
OK, you've now shown that players get hurt playing baseball. Riveting stuff.
You can add “ill-informed” to nonsensical, if you’d like.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 12, 2010 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
All of those players. . .
had beefs with the Cardinals medical staff, except for Mark Mulder, who the Cardinals’ medical staff should have red-flagged when an extension was being discussed. Maybe I’m assuming that the brain trust consulted the medical staff before re-signing Mulder, but that seems to be a pretty safe assumption.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 12, 2010 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
And even assuming these players had "beefs" with the med staff, so what?
That doesn’t tell me whether the player or med staff or management or anybody else was correct in diagnosing or treating (or doing anything else) regarding these players’ injuries.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 12, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
Concern about surgery
Ryan had “arthroscopic surgery and debridement.” Arthroscopic surgery uses small incisions to reduce pain and infection risk. “Debridement” is the medical removal of a patient’s dead, damaged, or infected tissue, in Ryan’s case a “capsule” that was “shaved” at the point where he had experienced pain.
Best case: quick heal, less pain – Hurrah! However, the process isn’t perfect, and restoration of full function is not guaranteed. I don’t think that’s a nonsensical point of view.
people expressing concern about Boog's surgery is not at all the crowd I was referencing
so you’re right, your post is not expressing a nonsensical point of view. it also doesn’t respond to the point I was making above.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 12, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
wow...was it intentional irony
to call the removal of one’s dead tissue “de -bride-ment”
***rimshot***
I don't think that's irony.
Unless Brendan got divorced on the same day.
Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown. - tom s.
10,000 spoons
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
unfortunately
its pronounced “de-breed-ment”. . . maybe one of our female contingency would volunteer to check into that?
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
i'll give that comment a little respect
but just a little.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
somewhere, Joe Mather has a sad.
Lick it—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Feb 12, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
am most concerned
that they’re wanting Boog to do nothing with his wrist for weeks…
Lick it—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
although... best case scenario
he learns to do everything with his feet
Lick it—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Feb 12, 2010 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
That's gonna really kill his love-life.
rimshot***
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 15, 2010 5:42 AM EST up reply actions
I know I'm excited to see "The Boog" at 100%
"At the end of the day, he will recover from this quickly and Cardinals fans will get to see ‘The Boog’ for the first time doing what he does at 100 percent. We are all very excited here in SoCal," Paul concluded
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 12, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
What is The Boog's upside?
If the wrist has truly been impacting his performance and the surgery solves the problem, then what can we expect going forward? More power (though perhaps only in more doubles)? More consistent average? I really don’t know – any informed ideas?
More awesomeness?
Not really sure, either. Maybe more power, although I would think that would be more related to core and lower body strength as opposed to wrist/forearm. In my experience (healthcare), wrist tendon problems tend to produce a lot of problems with gripping and anything that uses pronation of the forearms/wrists, which is a lot of hitting, so I would imagine it would improve hitting in some way; though I don’t really know in which aspects.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 12, 2010 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
i'd probably agree with that
not that there’s anything wrong with that.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
sight unseen
HI BRO IN THE TRUCK
Lick it—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Feb 12, 2010 11:07 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
mister eff
going to get his knee cut on. . . lets hope his surgery doesn’t have the effect on his range of blogging that Lugo’s surgery had on his range in the field.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
I'm back already!
Doctor: Now I don;t want you to be active for the next week or so. No running, biking, swimming or legwork.
Me: Yeah, that won’t be an issue.
what'd they do?
you didn’t get a “debridement” did you? I would be quite concerned for Misses Eff’s Valentines Day if that were the case!
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
They carved out a cyst
that had been getting a free ride on my knee for the last decade. Little bugger was about nine ounces all together. They grow up so fast.
I don't wanna see a picture of that thing on The FYC
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Bakers cyst?
Sounds like it was time he moved out and started earning his own living. Hopefully none of his little siblings follow in his footsteps.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Is VEB hugging the sides of the browser window for anyone else?
the comments are all the way to the left, and the sidebar all the way to the right for me
yup
but it beats the hell outta the KY add running in the background slowing everything down that was up earlier today…
I wish I knew what the KY ad everyone's talking about was
AdBlock Plus FTW…
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
You stil occasionally see ads
even with Adblock. I saw the KY ad this morning. Don’t see it now.
The only ads I've seen make it through
are the commercials at hulu.
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
my sidebar is below the comment box
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
weird
Must of just started to do that. Mine is fine but opened a new tab of VEB. Now I know what you are talking about
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 12, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
yeah mine's playing up as well...
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 12, 2010 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
I'm surprised they didn't go a little longer ala Hernandez and Verlander
He hit it good. He hit it good.
he's said for a while he wants to go year-to-year and isn't interested in a long-term deal
odd but there ya go.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 12, 2010 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
The other odd thing....
Giants offered 8, timmeh asked for 13…Contract: 8M this, 13M next and a 2M signing bonus. I think he sold himself short.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
He could have gone year to year with 10.5M this year
But really the consensus seems to be that he was going to get 13M. And then he could have earned like 15M with even a mediocre performance, probably 16-18 with a Lincecum-like one. That’s 2/30M on an upside.
Even with Tommy John they probably don’t non-tender him and he’s guaranteed 80% of his salary. He’s hedging against a shoulder injury….I don’t get it.
Not afraid to nitpick
his upside was probably 2/27 had Everything gone his way...
even his agent’s didn’t start the negotiation off at 2/30MM (they started at 2/$25MM) so you know you’re not figuring in all the factors corrrectly.
for starters, i don’t think he would have won $13MM at his hearing (and you have to discount the risk, at a minimum). it’s not an issue of whether he “deserved” it – those arbitrators would likely have lost their jobs if they’d given it to him.
Moreover, if he gets injured this year, his next year’s salary would have gone down considerably (now he’s protected against that). And if it were a significant injury, his subsequent year’s salaries would have been lower too (potentially never even recovering next year’s salary).
by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 12, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
2/27 is definitely short on his upside
I don’t care what his agents have done, he signed for slot 2.025 out of the draft as the #2 rated prospect in the draft, his agents are apparently not very good at maximizing value. That and the arbitrators do not lose their jobs, they aren’t MLB owned. They are outside legal consultants basically. IMO Howard is the closest precedent, he got 10M. Lincecum is better than Howard, 13M is going to be closer to whatever value they peg that at than 8M is. I think his case was pretty solid here.
In any case, all goes well he gets 13M this year and then with another Cy Young performance he could get 19.5M the next year (Howard got 15M his 2nd year of arb eligibility….if Lince is gonna beat him by 30% 1st year, +30% year 2 would be 19.5M). That’s 2/32.5 as his upside. What are the odds of him performing at about his career level with no serious injury? 50%?
Regardless, in estimating the arbitration award, let’s just say he splits the difference and guarantees himself 1/10.5M. In the above situation, he ends up 10.5M and then say 16.5M (conservatively). 26.5M on a 50% chance.
Worst case scenario for his career, he has Mark Prioresque shoulder surgery this year from which he can’t come back. 10.5M + non-tender and then ends up trying to come back on like 2M guaranteed. 5% chance?
Bad scenario, he has Tommy John surgery or some other ailment that doesn’t project him to be out all of 2011. There’s no way they non-tender him (see Brandon Webb or Bedard) and they can’t even offer him less than 8.5M. He’s guaranteed 19M. 20%?
Middle of the road scenario? Has a good but not great season, maybe gets dinged up a bit….still ends up getting Howard’s 15M (conservatively, Howards year after winning the 10M was not as good but still got him 15). 2/25.5M. 30% chance?
Expected value? 25.5M using as conservative of numbers as I can use (25% chance of major injury!). I personally am not paying 10% risk premium on a very conservative calculation when your base number is already 12.5M.
Not afraid to nitpick
A lot of this is wrong, and it messes up your numbers (and your numbers are off anyway)
That and the arbitrators do not lose their jobs, they aren’t MLB owned. They are outside legal consultants basically.
The arbitrators are agreed to annually by the MLBPA and a division of MLB’s Labor Relations Dept. If the Giants would have lost that hearing, thus giving a first-year eligible player a salary of $13MM, I guarantee you no member of that panel who voted for Timmy would have been agreed to by MLB ever again. So, they would have “lost their jobs” as salary arbitrators. Not to mention, either side can individually strike any arbitrator they don’t want for any arbitration – ergo, both guys (out of 3) who voted for Lincecum wouldn’t work on salary arbitration cases any more.
IMO Howard is the closest precedent, he got 10M. Lincecum is better than Howard, 13M is going to be closer to whatever value they peg that at than 8M is. I think his case was pretty solid here.
Sorry, but this is pretty weak. You can’t just assume a $3MM raise over the highest win ever for a first-year player. All you did was assume you were right and then proceed with your analysis, including 30% raises for subsequent years (Howard didn’t win $15MM, he settled as part of a long term deal). I don’t think there’s any chance in hell Linecum would get $19.5MM in year two.
Lastly, all of your injury estimates are skewed the wrong way. Linceum wouldn’t just factor in a 5% chance of catastrophic injury and be done with it. It’s a CATASTROPHIC injury. Protecting against that 5% chance (or whatever the real % is) is FAR more valuable to Lincecum than the value you ascribed to it.
And all of this is not even including calculating the marginal value of money. The 9th, 10th, and 11th millioneth dollar Lincecum guaranteed himself by signing the contract is FAR more valuable than the difference between the 23rd and 25th million that you’re trying to squeeze out while hoping not to get injured.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 12, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
It's pretty weak to assume 13M is 30% more than 10M?
The two options are 8M or 13M. There isn’t an in-between in the hearing. I believe 13M is clearly a better answer than 8M in the question of “where in relation to Howard year 1 arb is Lincecum?”. Do you disagree?
If Lincecum wins 13M (again, I was talking about the best case scenario), he again can use precedent to argue he is worth 30% more than the previous high. That is his best case scenario. Hence, it is filed under best case scenario wherein Lincecum would have won 3 consecutive Cy Youngs and I then consequently assumed that a 3-time defending Cy Young award winner might blow away precedents. I don’t find that to be too big a leap of faith.
I then hedged all that for the remainder of the analysis with 10.5M (and 16.5 in year 2) because that portion of the post was not talking about best case scenario.
Howard didn’t win 15M, but presumably that was his expected value in arbitration no?
The MLBPA would let the arbitrators who in effect helped their member gain a huge win would try to get those arbitrators off the panel for future hearings? What? Are the Howard arbitrators gone? No, Robert Bailey worked a hearing last year. Even so, arbitrators aren’t baseball people, they have a lot of other big stuff to fry aside from baseball arbitration. It’s their job to be fair, if they aren’t primarily concerned with that, they’re jobs as impartial arbitrators outside of baseball are gone.
We’re apparently wired differently as if I’m guaranteed ~13M as is (10.5M + 2M in a comeback try), I’m not going to be afraid to try to maximize my value. Dude already has probably 1.5M in the bank anyway.
Not afraid to nitpick
if the arbitrator
determines his value at 10 mil, don’t the giants win, as that figure is closer to theirs than to timmy’s – or do i have that wrong?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Big Hurt's retiring
That’s going to be an impressive HOF class in five years, with him and Johnson and Glavine and someone else I feel like I’m forgetting (assuming the voters don’t get their panties in a bunch about so many first-ballot inductees). Would be even more impressive if Griffey, Martinez, Smoltz, and Maddux had slightly better timing….
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 12, 2010 12:52 PM EST reply actions
I'm starting to feel really old now
There’s only a couple of guys left that I really remember following during the years when my passion for baseball really exploded
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 12, 2010 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
Well, now you're making me feel really old... :)
The guys who were in their primes when I was really getting into baseball as a kid have been retired for 10-15 years. Brett, Saberhagen, Ozzie, Mattingly, Murphy, Dawson, Gwynn….
There’s still some connection to this crop of future HOFers, because Griffey was on Homer Simpson’s softball team along with Mattingly and Ozzie. But Griffey’s the last of Homer’s team still playing, so when he retires it will truly be the end of an era.
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 12, 2010 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
We're actually probably coming from about the same era,
I got kind of a late start on my in-depth baseball interest. I remember watching all those guys (Brett, Ozzie, Gwynn, etc.) from time to time as a kid, and I played some Little League growing up, but it seems like my love for baseball really took off while playing in high school and that coincides with the starts/primes of Griffey, Smoltz/Glavine/Maddux, Big Hurt, McGwire/Canseco, Cincinnati’s “Nasty Boys”, etc.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 12, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
a better article
is found under yahoo in the sidebar: why he is a first-ballot HOF’er. “better” because it’s as much about apu as it is big hurt.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
That is a good article
I had forgotten how good Thomas was in the beginning. Also, from the same article….who knew there was a nickname HOF?
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 12, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
and who knew gehrig was also "biscuit pants"?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Gotta be the all-time greatest baseball nickname evar.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 12, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
talk about man-stew
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
ok, i'm not surprised
but did anyone else know?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Sure.
I own From Abba-Dabba to Zorro: The World of Baseball Nicknames.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 12, 2010 7:47 PM EST up reply actions
I don't get this sentence from that article:
“Pujols should eclipse Thomas’ career numbers someday — not to mention everyone’s career numbers — but he will always be lacking in one department.”
It sounds like he’s talking about walks – Thomas is “one of only four players in history to have at least a .300 batting average, 500 homers, 1,500 RBIs, 1,000 runs scored and 1,500 walks,” and he finished with 1,667. But Pujols is already more than halfway to 1,500, and almost halfway to 1,667 (he has 811). And with the exception of a slight dip in 2006, his walk totals have gone up every year he’s been in the majors. It’s not at all hard to imagine him passing Thomas before he’s done. (The Bill James Projection Tool predicts 1,482 and gives him a 28% chance of passing Thomas.)
Now if he’s talking about nicknames, I’ll grant that The Big Hurt is pretty awesome. But so are The Mang and El Hombre, especially because of the nod to Stan the Man.
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 12, 2010 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
i don't believe he was talking about nicknames
he even mentions stan the man as one of the great nicknames.
i was also confused and came to the conclusion he was talking about walks, and agree with you that this was a bit overboard considering apu’s chances.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Actually I think Glavine, Madduz, and Thomas all go in together
At least they should, since neither Glavine nor Thomas played in the majors in 2009. You don’t have to announce that you are retiring to be eligible for the HOF. I am going to be excited for that class just for those 3, but who else will be eligible in that same year?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
the Maddux class is going to be one helluva test
Mussina, Kent, and Shilling are also eligible. I find it hard to believe all six get in on the first ballot. That class just keeps getting more interesting.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I'll be surprised if Kent ever gets in.
He deserves, too, no doubt, but I just can’t see it happening.
Couple things going on here...
- Bad fielder
- Kind of a dick
- Late start
- Not much attention paid to him, i.e. never a guy whose name just popped off the page to the casual fan
And so on.
The dude hit better than damn near every 2nd baseman ever. The numbers say Hall of Famer to me.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 12, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
This may be apocryphal
But apparently he was in the Astros locker room one time and said he wanted to leave baseball with no friends.
Bagwell was standing right there and said “And you’re doing a great job!”
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 12, 2010 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
I think Mussina and Kent definitely won't get in on the first ballot
possible Schilling might miss out too, because he pissed a lot of folk off by being so outspoken, although I think he’s liable to get in eventually. I think Mussina maybe sneaks in based partly on being a Yankee and partly through being a reasonable candidate, although (like, say, kevin brown and maybe even Schilling) he might be hurt by being in a historically strong group of pitchers in the 90s and 00s.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 15, 2010 6:03 AM EST up reply actions
interesting. how much of that is actual personal inclination, how much is a sense that he'll be more in demand
once other pitchers show up to ST injured, and how much is a preemptive strike based on the assessment that he won’t get a deal soon and thus doesn’t want to diminish his perceived value by waiting on the shelf like so many brown bananas?
by taking himself off the market, he may remove some of the “still unsigned by march” stigma.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
That's from yesterday, and the
roto sidebar yesterday quoted Smotzl as saying that’s not coming from him.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
I had read another rumor about Smoltz and Martinez waiting until mid-season
that basically said neither of them had enough in the tank for a full season, and they knew it. Dunno how much of that was just half-assed speculation on the author’s part though (can’t remember where I read it).
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 12, 2010 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
Or...
he knows that he can’t get 200 innings out of that arm and pulling a Roger Clemens allows him to pitch for a team in the playoff picture, probably make more money for less work, and be able to pitch in the playoffs.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Now the new Rotowire on Smoltz (at least new to me - the time stamp is late this morning)
Is that he’s looking for a $3 million contract. Unless there are some health issues I don’t know about, I would sign him for that in a second.
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 12, 2010 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
SIGN JOHN SMOLTZ!!!!
did I do that right?
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 12, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
if it's true we have 7 mil in dry powder
we should sign smoltz, floppy, and calero for 8ish because that pretty much covers anything we’d be looking for down the line anyway (without paying a premium later), and i’d think it puts us in good position to be guaranteed two home playoff games, whereas last year…well, you know. question is, and iirc it’s been discussed, how much is a home playoff game worth – will it cover that extra mil we spend to acquire these three?
and that’s merely the financial aspect. baseball-wise, i think our world series chances would significantly increase.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Totally agree
If we could get those three, I’d consider this an awesome-tastic off season.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 12, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
later
will also likely require a player too
$7M is a $14M player on june 30, which i don;t see them doing
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
yep
and once you commit to winning (holliday), why pull up just short?
i could see not signing any of them early in the process, but now that they are sitting there within the budget…isn’t that just what we were hoping for?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
if the GOBs want to punish you
they will answer your prayers.
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Feb 13, 2010 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
+1
I can’t see any reason not to do that. Also, I can’t see why other teams wouldn’t sign him for that, pronto.
this is what's killing me.
how are there NO teams willing to pay $3m for JOHN SMOLTZ
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
there might be
but he doesn’t want those teams. he’s john smoltz. did anyone really think he’d end his career with the nats? (now i’ve probably done it – i expect he signs with them within hours)
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Why would the teams who want him pony up cash now
when they can wait, since there’s no real competition at this point, and possibly pay less?
if there's more than one team
how is there not competition?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Wouldn't the list of relievers who've signed for more than that
this off season be somewhat extensive? I mean, Geroge Sherrill got 4.5 million to play set-up man for the Dodgers. 3 million for Smoltz has to be a steal.
OT, sort of
Did anyone know of this awesome fact about our spring training quarters? link
Upon arriving in Jupiter, there is one attraction that towers above the rest: the Burt Reynolds and Friends Museum. The museum includes copious memorabilia from the legendary thespian’s long career, and also provides classes for aspiring actors and filmmakers. Items found therein include the canoe from “Deliverance” and boots that Burt wore in “Smokey and the Bandit.”
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 12, 2010 2:24 PM EST reply actions
I went there last year
As a fan of his goofier movies, like “Stroker Ace”, it was well worth the short drive from the stadium.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Do they have the giant novelty cowboy hat?
That would be worth an even longer drive.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 12, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
Do they have any "City Heat" memorabilia?
I crawled the earth, but now I'm higher, 2010 watch it go to fire!
by First mammal to wear pants on Feb 12, 2010 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
I think it sucks
that no one got my reference to Deliverance two days ago link
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 12, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
i think everyone got it
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
yeah I got it.
but the thought of yadi2 and gdm involved in some kind of deliverance-type scenario was too disturbing to comment on.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
Q
what’s the difference between meme and meem?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 12, 2010 2:53 PM EST reply actions
That's pretty simple
Meme is spelled right, meem is spelled wrong.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
iMeem was a (rather innovative) music streaming service
But the word “meem” doesn’t stand on its own.
It got bought by MySpace, doesn’t exist anymore.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
Ahem
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/what_does_siera_think_of_walks/
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/siera/
I’d say it’s a little too early to be lauding the metric.
Agreed.
And as if the Matt Swartz/Tango discussion weren’t obtuse enough for us non-math types, the web page is off-kilter for me, cutting off the start of all the sentences on the bottom of the page.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Feb 12, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
this
SIERA = 6.262 – 18.055*(SO/PA) + 11.292*(BB/PA) – 1.721*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) +10.169*((SO/PA)^2) – 7.069*(((GB-FB-PU)/PA)^2) + 9.561*(SO/PA)/PA) – 4.027(BB/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA)
..is enough for me to dislike it
just start drinking
that’s what i did.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I love excessive linear regression
at least that’s the only thing I can assume came up with something like that.
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
Upon closer inspection
the ^2 would have indicated that… but still there is way too much regression going on there for me. Granted I’m a civil engineer and we like to hide all the regression we do in a table with design values for stuff so take that as you will.
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
I'm having trouble thinking of an advanced metric that doesn't involve some empirical fit
does truncating the decimals somehow make the metric better?
by brackenthebox on Feb 12, 2010 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
The problem is not the best fit
It’s that you have to be able to find causation for that fit, or else it’s just crap. Y-T-Y testing and Year N+1 ERA is a good start, but you have to be able to show how the variables interact.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2010 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
yes, I know that good fit is nowhere close to sufficient
But all of this discussion had to do with the equation itself; nothing about the performance of the metric. As you stated, that’s a quadratic equation with 3 variables in it. Hardly an absurd amount of complexity given the amount of data that one has in hand to train on. If you wrote out one of the neural nets used to classify pitches from pitch f/x data it’d look a hell of a lot worse, but no one seems to have any issues relying on that much much more involved formulation.
There’s no underlying theory of run scoring/prevention that I’m familiar with, and even if there were, we can all agree it wouldn’t be linear and it wouldn’t have nice simple coefficients. As such, that equation is about as simple as you could ever hope the “right” answer to be, so I don’t see how we can reasonably reject it upon mere inspection.
by brackenthebox on Feb 13, 2010 6:56 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
wow, i'm impressed
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'm not rejecting it
The underlying theory of runs right now is Linear Weights. If you want custom Linear Weights tailored to run environment, you could use Base Runs, which makes it dynamic. Markof Chains have also been used to model runs scoring.
However, each of those changes to Linear Weights add very little to the accuracy of the equation (even at the extremes), and add a whole bunch of complexity to the formula. SIERA might be slightly better than Base Runs-ing tRA or FIP, I’m not sure, it needs more testing; however, the fact that it’s so hard to figure out what the formula is doing, what it’s strengths are, what it’s weaknesses are, which players it undervalues, which players it overvalues, how you can change it to match different eras and so on, means that, in my opinion, it has to be a lot more accurate than straight FIP or tRA to be of use.
The reason I am looking for something complex with Pitch f/x data is that there is NO “basic” way to classify pitches. Whether you are using K-Means clustering, Neural Nets or some other technique, nothing is going to make intuitive sense and be easy to replicate. That’s a necessity due to the complexity of the data. However, for modeling pitching, we already have a bunch of intuitive measures (tRA, FIP, LIPS – which is actually dynamic, not linear) that have been used, dissected, tested and deemed very good by the sabermetric community. SIERA doesn’t offer the elegance of FIP, or the intuitiveness of tRA, and it’s damn hard to break the formula down and find it’s faults. So unless it’s a hell of a lot more accurate than those other metrics, there is no reason we should be using it.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2010 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
I wasn't originally addressing your comments
I was reacting to this:
..is enough for me to dislike itand this:
I love excessive linear regression
This equation is neither all the complicated on it’s face, nor “excessively” regressed any more than other metrics we use. Linear weights themselves are fit, unless I’m missing something in the methodology.
If SIERA doesn’t add that much statistically beyond existing metrics, I 100% agree that simpler/more intuitive models are preferred. I just don’t like the sentiment, as expressed in the quotes above, that just because the equation looks messy (which it isn’t), it can be disregarded without examining it’s actual performance.
by brackenthebox on Feb 13, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
by the way
whereas linear weights seems like a great way to evaluate hitters who have almost no control over the context of their PAs, it feels like there should be something better for pitchers. At the very least, starting pitchers have a lot of influence on the context from which they pitch, and it’s reasonable to think that there are going to be significant non-linear effects as a result. Maybe SIERA doesn’t do the job, but I appreciate the direction.
Now that I say all this, it brings up questions about the dataset. Are PAAs for both starters and relievers used in the regression? How about PAAs from pitchers who didn’t start the inning? I didn’t see any discussion of this in the SIERA article; is there a standard practice for such things?
by brackenthebox on Feb 13, 2010 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
Base Runs makes FIP or tRA dynamic
Which means that it takes into account the fact that good pitchers will have fewer base runners on and thus less likely to receive as much damage from walks and home runs.
I’m not too sure about the SIERA equation. I’ve read the articles, and am having trouble weeding through all of the details. I’m reading Tango’s thread, which should push all of the relevant details to the surface.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2010 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
in theory those pairwise terms can account for those types of effects
but, as with any regression, nothing is that isn’t modeled is isolated, so it’s hard to interpret directly (as you said). Naively, the equation suggests the follow:
- The positive coefficient on the K^2 terms indicates a diminishing return on Ks (that was a point of contention for much of the discussion)
- The positive coefficient on BB^2 means that BB’s are increasingly worse when you give up a lot of them.
- The negative coefficient on GB^2 means that they are increasingly valuable as you get more GB.
- The positive coefficient on K*GB means that Ks and GBs are less valuable if you give up a lot of the other
- The negative coefficient on BB*GB means that walks aren’t as bad if you get a lot of ground balls, and ground balls are more helpful if you give up a lot of walks.
However, those things aren’t true in a perturbative sense, but only in a correlative one. That is, if pitchers who give up more GBs also tend to have fewer HRs, that gets coupled into all the GB terms, because it wasn’t explicitly modeled in the regression. If there are strong correlates that weren’t modeled, it can completely muddle the interpretation. So, technically, the quadratic formulation can account for the run scoring environment, in a somewhat indirect way.
That Tango thread is an awesome read, by the way.
by brackenthebox on Feb 13, 2010 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
there's some english for you
nothing is that isn’t modeled is isolated
nothing that isn’t modeled is isolated,
by brackenthebox on Feb 13, 2010 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that SIERA could potentially do a good job of modeling run scoring based on interact events
That’s basically what it strives to do, and that would be a legitimate advancement in DIPS statistics. I just don’t think that regression is necessarily the best way to go about doing it, and as you say, it could introduce a lot of collinearity and other confounding factors into the equation.
I’m not sure what’s a better way to go about accounting for those interacting variables; however, I really am somewhat opposed to regression in this case – although the metric looks to be holding up nicely.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2010 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
there is, incidentally, a fair amount of irony in my taking this side of the discussion
In my real job, I am staunchly against empirical modeling. Whenever possible, we use physics-based models and make all of the arguments that you, Tango, et al are against statistical models.
As such, there is probably a fair amount of devil’s advocacy in al of my comments to date on this (be it intentional or not).
by brackenthebox on Feb 13, 2010 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
Linear Weights are literally just the average change in run expentancy following each event
It’s not like regression, where you try to infer the value of each event based on the final product, it’s actually literally how_many_runs each event adds, on average.
The only problem with Linear Weights is that fact that it is tailored towards average. If you have a pitcher like Chris Carpenter, who is clearly not in average situations when he pitches due to the fact that he allows so few base runners, the coefficients in FIP aren’t going to be a perfect fit to the “real” coefficients.
I agree that SIERA shouldn’t be dismissed just because the formula isn’t intuitive (and I do think that truncating the decimals would make it better – it’s not like it would have a big effect on the final product).
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2010 7:59 PM EST up reply actions
Linear weights is not an underlying theory
It is a statistical model that does well. This has been my problem all along. About the only thing that I know of that actually is a sort of theory would be something like the diamond mind projections, which inputs a bunch of raw probabilities, and then uses those raw probabilities to output probabilities of run projection, directly, by doing actual simulations based on actual lineups and actual schedules.
Markov chain analysis would work too.
Bohr’s model of a hydrogen atom, with quantized angular momenta and only certain transitions producing only certain photons is a constructed model. There is no reason to believe why that should be the way it is. It has a bunch of input data, and it is jury rigged to the particular problem at hand. A priori, the relationships between the energy levels, in particular, just seem weird… unless
You have an underlying theory, in this case, quantum mechanics, with only one abstract data input (you still have to measure and understand planks’ constant), which can then go and make the particular prediction about the hydrogen atom. (Also, it shows that Borh’s model needs refinement)
Quantum Me
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I don't know why that says "Quantum Me" at the end
but that’s kinda awesome
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I love the idea of a first principles model of run scoring
let’s get on that
and quantum me too.
by brackenthebox on Feb 13, 2010 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
i got quantumed last night
and yeah, definitely kinda dirty.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I would hope that you washed your hands afterwards
Belief that success is inevitable is as likely to hold you back as a belief that it is impossible.
figuratively
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Linear Weights is not a model
It’s the average change in run expectancy for each event. It’s not based on regressing against runs or something, it literally figures out runs.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2010 8:00 PM EST up reply actions
they're still determined empirically, though, right?
Aren’t those run expectancies are computed from some sample of real games?
by brackenthebox on Feb 13, 2010 8:36 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, but it's not really modeling I don't think
A regression infers the value of each event from the finished product. For example, you can figure out OK Linear Weights by simply running a linear multivariable regression for 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, etc. on runs scored. You can split it up by game, or by year, or even by inning. In either case, it’s inferring the value of each of those events by how they explain the runs scored in each row.
Linear Weights is empirical, but it actually looks at how many runs are scored before a single is hit vs. after a single is hit. It still has a little bit of inference in it (as there are possibly some correlating factors – although I can’t really think of any off of the top of my head), however, it’s nowhere near as much as in a regression.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
It can't be empirical and not empirical
to the best of my understanding, it is generated by fitting a massive, massive number of variables to a regression. You have a coefficient for ‘runs following a BB with one batter on’ and ‘runs following a 2B with one batter on’ and so on and so on. It is an assemblage of very many linear regressions into a composite. The fact that you and tango and everyone who talks about this says ‘average’ 2000 times every time they talk about this has me really convinced that a regression enters at least there.
If this is not how each of these individual run expectancies are calculated, tell me I’m wrong, but as far as I can tell, linear weights is a model with a ton of free, statistically determined, parameters.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I don't think it's quite as bad as that
As I understand it, there are two steps:
(a) determine the run expectancy table, i.e., the mean number of runs scored in an inning subsequent to reaching any state (e.g., runner on first, two outs).
(b) using the run expectancy table, compute the effect on run expectancy for the event of interest (e.g., RE after a double – RE before a double + and runs that scored during the play). This difference is computed separately for each event of interest, and is treated as the “linear weight”
In theory, either or both of those could be handled through a simulator, without any explicit regression. In practice, they are generally both computed empirically.
(a) For the run expectancy table, the value for each entry is computed separately over some sample by tabulating the number of runs that are scored over the course of an inning subsequent to the state of interest. For example, the easiest state to think about is nobody on, nobody out. The expected number of runs for that state is just the average number of runs scored in an inning (maybe it’s a bit different from that for cases of lead off home runs, not sure how such things are handled). For the RE of man on third, two out, you just figure out how many runs have scored historically after seeing that state in an inning, and take the average.
(b) given an RE table, the weights can be determined empirically by looking at the change of RE from all examples of an event of interest. For example, to determine the linear weight of a single, you’d take all of the singles in your data set, and see how much the RE changed as a result of each single. The linear weight is then the average of those changes in RE.
So, in summary, nothing about linear weights requires statistical modeling, but functionally that’s how it’s usually done. And while there are a lot of parameters to fit (all the 8*3 entries in the RE table, and the weight for each event of interest), they are all determined separately, so that mitigates the dimensionality of the problem to a large extent (the beauty of linearity assumptions, I suppose).
by brackenthebox on Feb 14, 2010 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
just to be fair
the fact that it gives a (very) surprising answer doesn’t mean that answer is wrong. It’s PROBABLY wrong. But it’s far from certain.
This is certainly an interesting conclusion:
“our findings suggested that line drives per ball in play exhibited virtually no persistence, and did not represent a pitcher skill.” -link
Is there a consolidated cheat-sheet of “things that are and aren’t skills” out there anywhere?
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
is it odd that milwaukee
is giving away a cc sabathia bobblehead on aug 29?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
they will always have the half a season
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 12, 2010 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
you'd think they'd sell them on Ebay instead
at least make a little profit from the excess stock.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
Check out this fan letter to an obscure Twins relief pitcher:
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 12, 2010 3:48 PM EST reply actions
Dear Chase
I feel like I can call you Chase because you and me are so much alike. I would love to meet you someday, it would be great to have a catch. I know I can’t throw as fast as you, but I think you would be impressed with my speed. I love your hair. You run fast. Did you have a good relationship with your father? Me neither. These are all things we can talk about, and more. I know you have not been getting my letters because I know you would write back if you did. And I hope you write back this time and we get to be good friends. I am sure our relationship would be a real home run.
by mattyp on Feb 12, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Pat Neshek isn't that obscure...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eW3j2obTEH8
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
They really do have some of the best commercials.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
It's great because it's literally about him being obscure.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
repost from RB @
I wish Peej, his wife, and little girl all the best.
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Thanks for the link.
I will definitely be sending some thoughts and prayers their way.
Is it Spring yet?
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Feb 12, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
Can't you all see SIERA for what it is-
a moneymaking scheme by the insidious and monolithic corporate SABR-empire?!
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
I dunno
I think there’s some honest effort by Schwartz and Seidman to make a good metric but to make any substantive gains on the existing stuff, they have to get crazy complicated.
Also, BPs interface continues to suck horribly.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
it really is the worst
I think that, even more than their stats, is what has made them completely invisible over the last two or three years.
when did Nate Silver leave?
seemed to go down hill after that
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 12, 2010 7:23 PM EST up reply actions
when he realized there was more fun to be had
in projecting political races. but by then I’d already let my subscription lapse.
For my hardcore Sabr reading now in days
I go to the Hardball Factory.
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 12, 2010 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry that was actually a reference to an inflammatory article from a month or two ago about how sabermetrics are all about moneymaking.
Also, BP’s interface does suck…I feel like it sucks the life out of me or puts me to sleep within moments of reading anything on that site.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
Ah the Silva article
didn’t catch that at first. Too bad I think there is a grain of truth in that argument when applied to this situation with BP.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
Was it a Silva article?
I thought it was a Boston Red Sox one
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 12, 2010 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
ha I forgot about the guy bashing Cool Ranch Doritos
The guy I was thinking of was just bashing Sabr stats in general.
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 12, 2010 8:13 PM EST up reply actions
yes....His argument is crap
because he says we don’t need CRD IIRC…..*
* is an Asshat
Also, Dave Concepcion.
That's actually what I thought as well,
there’s a definite subtext of “we’re BP, of course our newfangled stat is relevant” even if Matt and whoever haven’t said anything like that.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
disagree.
the constant crashing of the stat server raised my blood pressure enough to keep me awake, back when I was a subscriber.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
So SABR has gone from nerds in mom's basement to the evil corporation?
It’s like Microsoft or something.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 12, 2010 6:37 PM EST up reply actions
Didn't read all the comments, but anyone heard about this yet?
Nodar Kumaritashvili – Luge competitor from Georgia – died today in a training run just a few hours before opening ceremonies for the Olympics…
…Just horrific looking. I will not post the video, out of respect.
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
It was quite a shocking video, to say the least...
…My condolences.
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
I'm now glad they have that 5 second delay.
If that happens during the competition I don’t want to see it. Apparently the lugers have been saying the track is really fast for awhile. Really sad story.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Just read about it
That’s no good. Tragic stuff.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 12, 2010 6:40 PM EST up reply actions
OT IT help
tired of fussing with mac mail and entourage
any suggestions for a good mac email client, maybe even as good as eudora used to be?
thanks
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
Thunderbird
is Mozilla’s email client. You could give that a try.
http://www.mozillamessaging.com/en-US/thunderbird/
I don’t use an email client, so you may want to wait until someone else offers some advice.
Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown. - tom s.
I have yet to find a better client than gmail, personally
what features are important to you?
by brackenthebox on Feb 12, 2010 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
mac mail, thunderbird, entourage are all about the same
haven’t found anything that has the search and mail filing capability of eudora
and eudora doesn’t handle imap well enough to use with our “new, improved” email system at work.
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
but to answer your question
incredimail is popular
might check that out
but i have no experience with imap servers. only pop
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
why use an email client?
this is something i’ve never, ever understood.
just use the webmail
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
Guess who I saw at Borders today?
The six is a serious number guy! The one with the glasses! So exciting! Almost makes it acceptable that it’s snowing in Clemson and not here today.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
is clemson on break?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
No I went home for the weekend.
I don’t have Friday classes and only one on Monday that I am allowed one absence so I’m just taking it now. I’m worried though I won’t be able to get home by Tuesday with the weather.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
word has it
a flake fell in new orleans last night.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Was he pushed or did he jump?
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 12, 2010 8:13 PM EST up reply actions
does it matter?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I went to high school with the other guy.
Last I heard he was on Broadway. I guess that’s one way to launch a career…
by ComoCardinal on Feb 12, 2010 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
6ly?
I crawled the earth, but now I'm higher, 2010 watch it go to fire!
by First mammal to wear pants on Feb 12, 2010 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
Yes!
My family sees him there all the time apparently! I love that he works in our local Borders.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
He WORKS in your local Borders?
6ly? That seems…. unlikely.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 15, 2010 6:20 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks for the link, Dan
There were some screw ups in my calculations on my original post at PAH9, but the errors have since been fixed.
Motte still looks good, the rest of the non-lefty bullpen looks pretty sad.
godfather of futureredbirds.net
yeah, kinda worried about the 'pen
I just see a lot of games lost in the later innings, and I’m not confident that our offense is over getting shut down by lefties consistently (at least, it hasn’t been very consistent over the last few years it seems), unless Freese, Colby, etc can make up for it, and of course having a full year of Holliday is going to help, but it’s no fun losing a bunch of games because of the bullpen
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 12, 2010 7:41 PM EST up reply actions
our team is weird against LHP
We have a bunch of RH batters who hit RHP better than they do LHP.
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 12, 2010 7:46 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, it drives me crazy
hopefully mcgwire will help?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 12, 2010 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
sadly, big mac was pretty much platoon-neutral.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
That would be a help.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
Really, only Ludwick and Holliday
and there’s a pretty fair chance that, in those cases, it’s partly luck and sample-size issues (especially Luddy, although his split is more pronounced – Holliday is basically the same on either side, give or take).
OTOH, Molina hits righties FAR better than lefties, Freese and Craig both had typical splits in the minors, and Boog is likely slightly better against lefties. Albert is (slightly) better against lefties for his career. We should hit left-handed guys as well as we hit righties, I think. Most of the reasons we sucked against lefties last year are not on the team any more.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 15, 2010 6:23 AM EST up reply actions
Sorry, I meant Molina hits lefties far better than righties.
The list of Molina, Young Third Baseman, Albert and Boog was meant to be RHB in our everyday lineup who will hit lefties better than righties. I suspect, in reality, Holliday and Luddy will be about the same on both sides. Colby will be better against righties, and our 2B will likely be better against righties because Schu vs RHP is much better than Lugo/Greene vs LHP. Overall, we should be slightly better at hitting left-handed pitching this year.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 15, 2010 6:25 AM EST up reply actions
But it seems like relievers are getting over paid compared to everyone else this year
While I don’t think we have a good bullpen. I don’t think it is a bad one. It makes more sense to allocate the money to a hole on the bench or the 5th starter. The most bang for the buck. Plus, maybe a bullpen guy surprises and makes the team, ie Salas
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 12, 2010 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
for $3M
where he won’t be worth anything around that
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 12, 2010 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
he seemed to lucky last year
To low of HR and LD rates. He seems to have much better swing and miss rates with essentially no difference in his pitches per pitch/fx
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 12, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
what about for 2 mil
or a shade under?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
While I don’t think we have a good bullpen. I don’t think it is a bad one.
I just don’t see how our bullpen is NOT a bad one. I can’t think of more than maybe 5 or 6 worse bullpens in MLB, and nearly all of those are non-contending teams. We have a couple of competent LOOGYs and a bunch of right-handed question marks. We’ll need a lot of luck for our pen to not suck horribly this year, I think.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 15, 2010 6:27 AM EST up reply actions
Heh - Luhnow and Keith Law are trying to work up a nice pissing contest
over Law’s trashing the Card’s farm system:
“Said Luhnow, who cited internal analysis as placing the system around the industry midpoint: ‘I’ll put our analysis up against Keith Law’s all day long and after five minutes the debate will be over.’
Law responded in a Thursday chat: ‘Now we know: Not only do the Cardinals need better prospects, they need better analysts, too.’
I don’t claim to know much about our farm system, but from everything I’ve heard we’re a lot closer to the bottom than the middle after last year.
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 12, 2010 6:01 PM EST reply actions
I've got to hand it to Law
that’s a solid response.
And I know Luhnow has to stick up for his guys, but this doesn’t really look like an industry midpoint system to me, unless he’s implying that the league as a whole is about to run out of star players.
Luhnow has to pump up his players
but what he should be saying, while not somehow walking a fine line between of not slamming his players is “I’ve rebuilt this system from a bottom-dwellar in the prospect rankings before to being respectable, and I can do it again”
godfather of futureredbirds.net
by erik on Feb 12, 2010 6:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Or...
That’s his opinion and we should set out to prove him wrong this year… Or something other than “our analysis can beat up your analysis!”
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 12, 2010 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
KLaw is irrelevant
Aside for 3B and the 5th Starter, there are no holes in the Cardinals major league club this year. The farm system did exactly what it was supposed to do – some players advanced while others gave us the ammunition to acquire players from other teams.
You don’t need to visit the farm if your dinner table is full of food…
I agree
but I also agree with the idea that it’s all irrelevant. The team used what was a rather good farm system last season to help the major league club. I don’t understand why Luhnow would get upset about a ranking the year after that happened. . I don’t understand all the back-n-forth over this.
It’s like saying that the chili I have going on the stove is mediocre chili just because it hasn’t had all the ingredients bought and added to it yet, plus the ingredients that are already in the pot have not yet meshed to make it a perfect pot o’ chili yet.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
are you blogging from the kitchen?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
well this is awkward
I better put on some pants
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 12, 2010 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
/mfm wins.
if you can call it winning.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
by SleepyCA on Feb 12, 2010 9:25 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah thing is...
…the Cardinals lost Gregerson (not really a ‘spect but definately considered useful at the time of the trade), Perez, Wallace, Mortensen, and Todd, which was pretty much the whole top tier of the system. Who is left? DJ Tools, who looks kind of like a fringy-OFer right now with room for improvement, Shelby Miller who is really young and raw, Ottavino who can’t throw the ball over the plate consistently, Descalso who is no future All Star, and the three S relievers Sanchez, Samuel, and Salas, one of who walks nearly 8 guys per nine.
So it’s pretty bare. They dealt away the top flight group and what’s left is grim. You’re right, they’re pretty close to the bottom.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 12, 2010 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
Luhnow should, imo,
shy away from tit-for-tat statements against individual analaysts. It comes off as petty. Even if Strauss gives the lead in of “Keith Law says. . .”, it’s unbecoming for him to respond in that manner.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
by azruavatar on Feb 12, 2010 8:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
agree, it's unprofessional
but then again, there’s a reason Law is a former member of an MLB front office.
It’s kind of cute to see him attack luhnow that way; if the cardinals hired Law to replace Luhnow, would ANY of us consider that a good thing?
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
or at the very least stick to multiple exclamation points in his twitters
Lick it—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Feb 12, 2010 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
i would have said a) "memphis won the PCL in 2009, so we clearly have a better skillset on the field than a lot of teams."
b) “i think we can expect great things from our farm. every year, players surprise the experts and jump in the ratings. i look forward to the cards’ prospects proving keith law wrong.”
the comments made here about keeping his cool are right, though i can see luhnow takes the success of his prospects personally. which is probably good in a lot of senses, just not in this instance.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
That would have been a perfect response.
from someone in a “face of the franchise position”, like Mo or DeWitt.
Why is Luhnow talking to the press at all?
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
Our system produced a handful of major league regulars even from the hellish depths of bad prospect rankings years ago.
It’s almost guaranteed that David Freese is worth $10M+, meaning he’s worth more than the majority of the top 10 prospects of most of the teams in the league. Allen Craig is a similar case, Lynn is a similar case. Prospect rankings are generally quite unreliable once you get off of the guys who are just obviously future ML studs or are extremely close to the majors, but even those cases are unreliable considering the boom and bust and the hype machine that turned Madison Bumgarner’s 88 MPH fastball into that of a left-handed Tim Lincecum.
On the other hand, Lunhow’s comment sounds like something I’d spout off and say- the guy could just not be acclimated to the spotlight. Perhaps Lunhow should be seen in the shadows, polishing our fabrege egg collection instead of heard.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
Our system sucks.
Sincerely,
Yadier Molina, Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, Brendan Ryan, David Freese, Colby Rasmus, Adam Wainwirght, Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, Mitch Boggs, Jaime Garcia, Blake Hawksworth, Tyler Greene, Allen Craig, Jon Jay.
PS. That is 15 players that would have made their MLB debut with the Cardinals that could and/or should make the opening roster. I don’t know how that compares to the average franchise, but seems pretty good to me and vast improvement over years past.
by Mister Eff on Feb 12, 2010 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
dont forget
Placido Polanco, Jack Wilson, JD Drew, Coco Crisp, Braden Looper, and that ghost hat that pitches for Arizona
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
don't forget the cure for cancer himself
brett wallace
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Feb 13, 2010 12:16 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i mightn't go that far
but i’ll bet he rakes. truly love that guy’s makeup.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
his eye shadow is particularly beguiling.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 15, 2010 6:31 AM EST up reply actions
OT, gonna go watch Frontiers; the Journey tribute band tonight...
…my only regret is that they’re going to play Don’t Stop Believin’…and that song greatly irks me because of its overplayedness.
Yes, overplayedness is a word. At least in my mind it is.
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
I don't know how you could expect to not hear that song at a Journey tribute show.
Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown. - tom s.
So Don't Stop Believin=Tim Tebow?
Annoying to you because of over coverage? Or something.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 12, 2010 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
Tebow doesn't bother me...
…Don’t Stop Believin’ bothers me because it’s the ONLY song about 60% of the public know from Journey….
It was AWESOME, though. They opened with my favorite, Separate Ways, played some of the “lesser known” songs, and even tossed in a Steve Perry exclusive, “Oh Sherrie”
Good times…
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
FREEBIRD!!!
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
Only if
the video is included…
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
Greatest horrible video ever
Followed closely by “Oh Sherrie”
…I mean, freakin’ Steve Perry plays a broomstick!
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
Faithfully is good too
for some reason there’s an unnatural focus on his stache… it’s really strange.
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
this thread is like a mix-tape report.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Feb 15, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah we should really hold off
til the next RB post shouldn’t we?
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
is that a good thing?
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
hav ing never seen the show
that was one incredibly cognitively dissonant paragraph…
“guy i know on the interweb just met a fictional character who died (past tense) 39 years in the future”
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
haha
it’s a great show, but i can see how that would be confusing
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
that's awesome. rico was one of my favorite characters.
i presume you mean the actor. he was in something else recently. can’t think of where i saw him.
"It doesn't have to be terribly prolific! Just so that it isn't childish and silly." She reflected. "I prefer stories about squalor." J.D.S.
no
i had a customer named federico diaz
when he told me my name, it threw me off hard
i just finished the series for the first time a couple weeks ago
and yeah, rico was great if a bit of a homophobe
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
well usually if you met him, you were on his table
so when you said you talking to him, i had to think for a sec
Heaven has brick walls and St. Peter is a red bird.
by EinFesteBusch on Feb 13, 2010 12:03 AM EST up reply actions
it'll be funny if Mather, Jay, and Craig make the team
Mather if he steals Freese’s spot and is healthy, Jay because he’s a lefty bat off the bench and is a great defender (at least, that’s my impression), and Craig if he ends up being able to continue hitting has he has in the minors. granted this is an extremely unlikely scenario, but I’m a fan of all those prospects
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 12, 2010 8:00 PM EST reply actions
right now I think 2 out 3 is going to happen
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 12, 2010 8:06 PM EST up reply actions
that will definitely make me a happy camper
pretty sure that Craig will make the team, the other two not sure about. Jay made some noise in spring training last year, and Mather has had more major league playing time than Freese so who knows
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 12, 2010 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
if mather and craig both made the team I would be ecstatic.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he would drive down the street in his El Dorado... -J Cale
FIP undervalues groundball pitchers on teams with good infield defense
It has to.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
A little bit
A very little bit.
http://www.3-dbaseball.net/2009/11/pitching-to-contact-and-fip.html
And I’m not sure why the pitcher should get credit for having a good infield defense.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2010 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not trying to give the pitcher credit
but if you’re going to pay for that good infield defense, you might as well use it. If you have a team of Adam Dunn’s, then yes, the strikeouts become much much more important.
And also, there is nothing in that article that talks about GB/FB, which was what my whole point was about. A pitcher who has a high GB rate and a low LD rate, but a relatively high FIP is someone who would make sense for the Cardinals, who have tended to have pretty decent infield defense in recent years.
FIP ignores what happens when the ball is put into play. Different teams do different things with balls in play. It’s worth looking at that when constructing a roster, no?
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
tRA looks at batted balls, though
You should never just look at one stat. You need to look at multiple stats and multiple years.
what's more likely to go for a hit
GB or LD/FB?
genuine question
i know BABIP on LDs is ridiculously high and FBs ridiculously low
what’s lg avg?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 13, 2010 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
A LD is much more likely to go for a hit and get hit hard
The run values of groundballs and non-home run fly balls are the same.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2010 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
what i meant is
what’s the difference in lg avg BABIP between GBs and non-GBs (LDs and FBs)
seems like even if BABIP on GBs is going to be well lower than the alternative (considering that FBs are just as likely to go for hits and LDs are much more likely to go for hits) not to mention SLGBIP. which in turn would mean that GB pitcher have a valuable skill. not saying that carp of the cardinals should be credited more than if he played for, say, the (insert team with awful IF defense), but an ability to consistently induce GBs has to be seen as a valuable thing. as for how it measures up to a pitcher who is more average on batter ball types but with more Ks and more BBs, i don’t know. just making an observation
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 13, 2010 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
BABIP isn't really important
I’m not really sure why it’s been given so much weight. What you really care about is Linear Weights on batted balls – that’s what FIP and tRA use. Here are the Linear Weights per batted ball from 2007 – 2009:
FB = 0.0670003
GB = -0.0723904
LD = 0.3638210
PU= -0.2653174
These are from the pitchers point of view, so lower is better. Basically, this is how many runs you’d expect the pitcher to give up on each of the events. As you can see, the ground ball is much better than the fly ball or line drive. These are including home runs, if you exclude home runs from the picture, you get this:
FB = -0.1014103
GB = -0.0723904
LD = 0.3391058
PU = -0.2653174
If you exclude home runs, a fly ball is slightly better for the pitcher than a ground ball. Line drives are still terrible, and pop ups are still great.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2010 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
linear weights is fine
but i think determining how many BIP for each batted ball type go for a hit is relevant information
but yeah, if you’re basically gonna give me wOBABIP, that’s a lot better
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 13, 2010 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
this would actually be a pretty sweet stat now that i mention it
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
I think you're missing his point a bit.
Ground balls actually go for hits more often than fly balls (league wide BABIP is in the low to mid 300s vs mid 200s), however, ground balls never leave the park, rarely go for more than singles, and they sometimes result in double plays.
"What's your favorite Chuck Palahniuk book?"
"I like the one about the alienated character who finds the socially unacceptable way of coping with modernity."
But BABIP is kind of stupid because it treats all hits as singles
Linear Weights on BIP (exuding home runs) is just wOBA on BIP which is a lot better than BABIP.
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2010 8:27 PM EST up reply actions
yeah but that's not what he was asking
?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 15, 2010 6:35 AM EST up reply actions
woot
just got home to find two new hats!
freakin love hats
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
That St. Louis hat looks awesome.
How much did you pay for it?
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
i believe
they were both $34 from neweracap.com
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 12, 2010 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
is it as nice as the photo?
i need a stl cap after waking up w/o mine (the blue) in new orleans, and haven’t come across one here yet. it is black, right?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
well
that depends on how well i am able to get the bill to curve. but it’s a new era fitted cap. very good quality. same thing the players wear on the field
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 12, 2010 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
reminiscent of that guy pictured
in the first comment.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
not no mo
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 12, 2010 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
aaaahahahaha
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 12, 2010 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
even better
The Cardinals are the only club known to still have interest in Lopez,
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
by prophetjohn on Feb 12, 2010 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
get it done Mo!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 12, 2010 11:15 PM EST up reply actions
wouldn't this bring in other teams?
it’s not like there aren’t teams who could use him. they were probably just wary of dealing with Boras.
Heaven has brick walls and St. Peter is a red bird.
by EinFesteBusch on Feb 13, 2010 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
get it done
before that happens, MO!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Feb 13, 2010 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
my point above
this cuts both ways.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
ha
He neglected most of his clients this off-season for Holliday.
Damon
Floppy
Crede
Blalock
Washburn
are guys that should have jobs by now and they don’t.
So
he got the best possible value for a guy we signed, and has let the values of a lot of players who will be signed by other teams drop.
I’m not sure how this is a good thing (!), unless you dislike Boras more than you like the Cards, I suppose…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 15, 2010 6:37 AM EST up reply actions
Oh I dislike boras,but the holliday deal I feel was a fair price for his service.
Now would I have liked him to sign for less? in a heart beat.
I hope we sign him
dude can hit
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 13, 2010 4:27 AM EST up reply actions
I agree
it would be somewhat redundant. if we don’t sign any pitchers though, I think he’s probably the best option
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 13, 2010 4:36 AM EST up reply actions
.320/379/.456 vs. LHP last year will be a huge boost in the lineup.
I would play him at RF, Craig at second(or vice versa), Freese at third, and Ludwick in center, and we got a much better lineup against lefties.
you, sir, are drunker than i
anyone ever have hitachino beer, from kiuchi brewery in japan?
seems pretty good.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Never heard of it
I’ve only had the big 3 from Japan, Kirin, Asahi and Sapporo. Also, Tsing Tao (which I’ve heard should be pronounced Ching Dao) from China (of which Anheuser Busch still owns about 7%), and Singha from Thailand.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 13, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
never had the thai beer
and this one’s actually called hitachino nest white ale – has a red bird on the label. a bartender from chicago (sox fan and devout baseballer) gave me a few bottles to try last nite, or this morning…mardi gras is killing me – the parades march right past my place and evolve into huge block parties (am i complaining?)
anyway, this beer is so dry it’s almost saki. nice change of pace from the abita amber i normally drink here.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Try anything from unibroue brewing in Montreal
I would recommend Trois Pistole although Maudite is amazing as well
Belief that success is inevitable is as likely to hold you back as a belief that it is impossible.
wrote it down
will look for it. my one hope here is probably this bar in the quarter with 100 beers on tap, and i will be there fat tuesday (the saints parade was this past tuesday, now known as dat tuesday. there was also some play on lombardi/mardi but forget how that went)
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
La Fin du Monde is the one you're most likely to find
in Boston, anyway; can’t speak to NO
by brackenthebox on Feb 13, 2010 7:39 PM EST up reply actions
i hope i find that one
would be somewhat fitting to the occasion.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
You can also lift a Don de Dieu
When you think of the Mang…
Play ball!
by IL and StL Fan on Feb 14, 2010 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
Dry Beers
I can heartily recommend Orval (Belgian Trappist) if you ever get the chance. It’s unbelievably dry and spicy, quite unlike just about anything else I’ve tried. Very good though.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Feb 15, 2010 6:38 AM EST up reply actions
I wonder how many different lineups to expect this year
we should do a fanpost contest before the season starts
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 13, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
testing sig
Ezra Pujols
(5th of February for you horoscopers)
thoughts?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Do you still feel that way...
when you know I fall into that category?
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
don't you get points for Albertofstan?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Feb 13, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
Wow you must really like those then...
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
I'm not going to let such a small sample affect the whole batch.
Forget it, spants. It's Chinatown. - tom s.
Did not expect to see you on here at this hour...
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
Are you also running on vampire time?
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
Me, Aquarian.
I do well with Virgos.
Time for a new sig.
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 13, 2010 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
Are you one to believe
that astrological signs affect how a person acts and such?
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
That's an acceptable answer
if you were to say hardcore yes I may have to start thinking less of you.
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
I found something online once
about what all the different signs mean and don’t mean. I remember one for Aquarius being that sitting through meetings was not something they liked. I really want to know one person who enjoys sitting through meetings.
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
now but droonks
and wondering why baseball blog comments are the optimal thing for me in my state of drunken delirium/bliss
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
Resident malcontented betamale
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