Tuesday Morning Thread

The nats overpaid because they are the nats…

They are not many peoples first choice. So to lure a big name they overpaid.

end of story.

1. They can’t contractually guarantee that right now, so it’s effectively worthless to Pujols. Aside from the fact that they wouldn’t be required to do it once he is retired and value contributed (AKA they wouldn’t give it to him then), there’s a >0 chance ownership sells the team and that “promise” becomes REALLY worthless.
2. They aren’t just going to dilute the entirety of the ownership group by 5% anyway. They can say they will try to let him buy a minority stake, but they aren’t going to give it to him from the bottom of their hearts 10 years from now.
3. They wouldn’t even give him 5%. Corporate standards for executive equity stakes fall way less than 1%. Given that the franchise is “only” worth 500M, 1% is not much money anyway.
4. Aside from even that, it would be impossible to properly value that promise even if they were 100% to keep it. The franchise is worth 500M now, what will it be worth 10 years from now? Microscopic changes in your assumptions create massive changes in the 10 year FV.

-Again they will not get the votes to dilute everyone’s ownership stake by any significant amount, and franchise is not worth enough to make this sort of thing work for a <1% stake.

-To avoid dilution, it would have to be a significant holder(s) saying he/they would give/sell 5% at a discount to Pujols. That would mean one of the owners would be giving up value to the profit of the other owners. So yeah…

-Valuing the franchise now is a tenuous exercise at best without actually trying to find bidders: valuing it 10 years from now is basically impossible especially in our current economic state….and then valuing that in NPV terms to Pujols is beyond impossible. Their growth rates are pretty crazy as is (the recent times→economy notwithstanding), and those would vary wildly anywhere from 5-20% nominal depending on where you stand on the deflation/inflation or recovery/double dip debates….and then Pujols’ discount rate is going to vary wildly as well. You’re talking about an asset that could be worth anywhere between say $15-50M (WAG alert) and you basically have no idea where it would be….and then you have to figure out a “discount” on that. That’s a whole lot of “and thens”. Both sides would probably rather just deal with cash to eliminate a whole bunch of uncertainty.

And people wonder why banks don’t want to lend right now…

Yesterday, Goold tweeted that Pujols’s camp and Mo met. Then, Heyman retweeted this info, including an attribute to Goold, with the addition of Heyman hearing that Pujols wants A-Rod money, without Heyman naming a source. His source could be BJ Rains for all me we know. Here is the tweet:

pujols’ people met with top #cardinals officials (via @dgoold). hes thought to be seeking a-rod money. #bestplayeringame

Just an anecdote:

In 2008, Lance Berkman was 32 y/o. He put up a 7.5 fWAR season with a .419 wOBA.

In 2010, Albert Pujols was 30 y/o. He put up a 7.3 fWAR season with a .420 wOBA.

Going into the 2011 season, there are many people who think Berkman is done, too old, will never again be the hitter he was a few years ago, and don’t even think he is worth the 1yr/$8MM deal he just signed (or are really glad it was just a one year deal).

A lot can change in a few years. This is, of course, not to say Berkman is or has been as good as Pujols. It is only one data point. But it is indicative of how things can change quickly as players enter their mid-thirties. I would not be in favor of givng Pujols a 10 year contract.

All we really need to do is keep payroll the same and allocate Berkman’s money to Albert, deferring some until after retirement.

the issue is the years…

will Pujols be worth 27.5 mill during the remaining years of this contract? Who knows. I say do it and worry about the consequences 7-8 years from now. Hopefully he is taking a run at a few records and continues to put people in the seats.

We would only increase payroll by 11.5 mill a year from Pujols current salary. Just don’t sign a lohse deal and invest in young pitching and no harm no foul.

Also,

That show is arguably was the pinnacle of American comedy writing – albeit overtly incongruous bloody awful and routinely cringe-worthy in their later seasons.

he back in pog form"

Milhouse rules

Remember when we used to make out to this hymn?

.333 wOBA last year. .334 wOBA in ’09. Career wOBA of .318.

Before we signed Bennett, he put up wOBA’s of .269 and .262. His career wOBA is .278.

Zaun is significantly better than Gary Bennett or Jason LaRue. In fact, I would be very interested in signing him, if I were the Cards.

Rex Banner: (Grabbing Ned Flanders) Are you the Beer Baron?
Ned Flanders: Well, if you’re talking about root beer, then I’m guilt-diddily-ilty as char-diddily-arged.
Rex Banner: (to other cops) He’s not the Beer Baron, but he sounds drunk; take him in.

After blasting marge in the face with a make-up shotgun Lisa tells Homer that women won’t like being shot in the face.

Homer replies women will like what I tell them to like….

You see the sexual innuendo in this?

however, my wife is, being a massive fan. coincidentally, she brought this subject up last week. i think the name of the episode was “marge and the monorail”, or something like that. we were watching conan, he mentioned it, having written the episode. i said i hadn’t seen it and she made me watch it immediately. pretty funny.
she said “mr. plow” was her second favorite.

Hank: Uh, hi, Homer. What can I do for you?
Homer: Sir, I need to know where I can get some business hammocks.
Hank: Hammocks? My goodness, what an idea. Why didn’t I think of that? Hammocks! Homer, there’s four places. There’s the Hammock Hut, that’s on third.
Homer: Uh-huh.
Hank: There’s Hammocks-R-Us, that’s on third too. You got Put-Your-Butt-There?
Homer: Mm-Hmm.
Hank: That’s on third. Swing Low, Sweet Chariot… Matter of fact, they’re all in the same complex; it’s the hammock complex on
third.
Homer: Oh, the hammock district.
Hank: That’s right.
Hank: Uh, Homer, one second. I gotta take care of this. Very important. Be right back.
Homer: Fine.

        [Hank’s map of the world reveals a giant viewscreen, on which appears the UN staff]

Hank: Good afternoon, gentlemen. This is Scorpio. I have the Doomsday Device. You have 72 hours to deliver the gold or you’ll face the consequences. And to prove I’m not bluffing, watch this.

       [activates a remote]
       [an explosion occurs near the UN building]

Man 1: Oh, my God, the 59th Street bridge!
Man 2: Maybe it just collapsed on its own.
Man 1: We can’t take that chance.
Man 2: You always say that. I want to take a chance.
Hank: Collapsed on its own? You, sh… You have 72 hours. See ya.
 
[to Homer] Back to the hammocks, my friend. You know, there’s a little place called Mary Ann’s Hammocks. The nice thing about that place is Mary Ann gets in the hammock with you. [laughs] I’m just kidding.
Homer: Oh.
Hank: You know who invented the hammock, Homer?
Homer: No.
Hank: That’s something for you to do. Find that out.

I also want to say I like the garbage man episode

if only for the song (and quimby getting garbage juice on his mouth)

You’ll get no recs from me.

i will not make any jokes about your tardiness

That’s my name, that name again is mr plow

Damn! There goes my whole future career in journalism.

He doesn’t even attribute it to anyone or use the patented Twitter rumor regurgitation introduction of “Heard this.” He merely cites some sort of collective thought. This doesn’t mean that Pujols is not looking for A-Rod money. He very well could be. But we have no substantive basis for this thought.

And also: the one where Homer befriends a man not realizing he’s gay, only to freak out when Marge tells him; the Lemon Tree episode; the Monorail episode; the one where Sideshow Bob is released and runs for mayor; and one where Homer has to go to college.

plenty of hydrofoil and “…Mr. Black, and now…Mr. Black” jokes

“But that was non-alcoholic champagne…”

featuring the appearance of Alfred E. Neuman requesting some “furshlugginer pastrami sandwiches”

I saw that ALL THE TIME

also krav kalesh!

the lord of the flies episode

one of the twins I think: "im so hungry I could eat ar arby’s
random kid: wow that is hungry

also
ralph eats berries and rolls around on the ground in agony
Kids: how do they taste, Ralph…good?
ralph: they taste like…burning

or how about in the teacher strike episode during the debate
someone in the crowd “the finger thing means the money…”

they will still be able to get a pretty solid haul for him.

they should have set a deadline for last offseason – sign an extension or traded him then.

they better move him

I would also eat something healthy, like bland cereal. You need to get your metabolism going.

Even running a mile, I think you jump start the system.

the worst thing for hangovers is waking up to a crying baby at 3am and changing a poopy diaper. That after going to bed at 2.

seauerkraut juice…or not drinking so hard

More vodka is the correct answer.

They can start an IV on you…quickest hangover killer ever because it rehydrates you in no time.

Not that I would know of course.

And water.

dont drink so much

or spaghetti with butter

Seems you’ve had lots of chances to try them all out recently.

nothing at all…