who am i?
by tom s. on Dec 4, 2010 12:09 PM EST
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below you can compare and contrast the outputs of pitcher A and pitcher B, arranged by their age-seasons. got any guesses?
|
Pitcher A |
Age-years |
Pitcher B |
||||
|
FIP |
xFIP |
WAR |
|
FIP |
xFIP |
WAR |
|
4.57 |
4.74 |
2.7 |
Age -30 |
4.53 |
4.35 |
1.5 |
|
4.50 |
4.12 |
2.3 |
Age -31 |
4.70 |
4.66 |
1.7 |
|
4.78 |
4.56 |
1.7 |
Age -32 |
4.42 |
4.90 |
2.5 |
now i will show you pitcher A's most recent season and pitcher B's last three seasons. i bet some of you have figured at least pitcher B out.
|
4.61 |
4.60 |
1.7 |
Age -33 |
5.51 |
4.79 |
-0.2 |
|
|
|
|
Age -34 |
5.70 |
5.26 |
-0.7 |
|
|
|
|
Age -35 |
4.89 |
5.05 |
0.0 |
last chance to guess before the jump . . .
yes, pitcher B is jeff suppan. pitcher A is of course bronson arroyo. arroyo took home a 3y/$35m contract from old friend walt jocketty yesterday, for reasons best known to walt and the little men who live inside his head.
i am obliged by reds honks to note that the contract was of course an extension of the 2011 option for $13m that the reds already exercised. so, it's more like a $22m pile of shit that's heaped on top of a $13m pile of shit than just one steaming $35m pile. both decisions were made by walt jocketty within the past month or so, and, to the best of anyone's knowledge, neither decision involved a remote detonator and arroyo strapping a vest full of plastic explosives to one of jocketty's family members. i'm not sure how saying that walt made two very expensive mistakes is better than him making just one, but there it is.
of course, what i have posted above is deeply unscientific and unfair. it draws an equivalency between two pitchers who are different in some ways -- though not, i would submit, in ways that are terribly meaningful. some pitchers of similar talent will not drop off the face of the earth. maybe arroyo coasts along for the next three years putting out average value. sure. it's not a good bet, though, that he will maintain value. and $35m would be an overpay even for his LAST three seasons, which were worth about $25m in total. $35m is a bet that he will get better in the next three seasons, which is just an awful proposal for a pitcher entering his age 34 season.
the baseball world is and has been for several seasons a walking object lesson on the hazards of offering only-okay pitchers in their mid-thirties large, multi-year deals. walt was overheard to wonder why, for three nights prior to signing the deal, he'd been having dreams in which randy wolf, enwrapped in chains, kept appearing.
in december 2010, any GM who sends a thirty-something mediocrity that kind of money for 3+ years deserves what he gets. (a tear just came to mozeliak's eye as i wrote this. then he put another pin in his boras voodoo doll. mo used to put the pins in his lohse doll, until kyle suddenly needed motocross surgery the day after a very frustrating budget meeting. the substitute doll is not as satisfying, but putting pins in it fills the empty place inside him - even if only for a few minutes.)
what makes the deal even more perplexing is that the reds had maybe the best cheap starting pitching depth in the majors. they have room in their starting eight for improvement: in the outfield, for instance, where a chunk of money could have made a big difference. $12m/yr would get you most of the way to jayson werth, say. i think it's fair to say that even if their fifth pitcher is replacement value, werth would supply more value than laynce nix or whatever corner outfield they end up cobbling together, relative to the 2 wins arroyo nets them (if that). more likely, their fifth starter would have performed comparably to or better than arroyo and cost league min. mike leake, edinson volquez, homer bailey, johnny cueto, and travis wood all had a better FIP than arroyo last year; except for volquez who was recovering from injury, they all pitched at least 100 innings.
potential in the field acquisitions: third base
edwin encarnacion has been nontendered. he is consistently worth a win or two at third despite godawful defense. toronto put him out in a corner outfield spot to keep his bat in the lineup. both options are useful to the cards, and good spots to hide a pinch-hitter/spot starter, given our untested platoon in RF, and our glass-ankled third baseman. his personality would be likely to irritate the hell out of la russa.
andy laroche is a perplexing third base talent, whose potential never materialized: he now looks like an average fielder with terrible hitting, suited for a utility role. He had a stellar 2009, but has otherwise been at or below replacement level. i can't tell the story better than fangraphs already has, so I won't try.
|
encarnacion |
years |
laroche |
||||
|
wOBA |
UZR/150 |
WAR |
|
wOBA |
UZR/150 |
WAR |
|
.350 |
-16.4 |
1.4 |
2007 |
.300 |
6.4 |
0.3 |
|
.351 |
-14.4 |
1.9 |
2008 |
.236 |
-1.8 |
-1.0 |
|
.322 |
-15.2 |
0.2 |
2009 |
.324 |
5.1 |
2.6 |
|
.339 |
-2.3 |
1.8 |
2010 |
.252 |
-5.9 |
-0.6 |
|
.344 |
-11.5 |
5.3 |
total/avg* |
.287 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
* showing WAR totals over four years, 2007-10; UZR and wOBA's are lifetime averages.
to me, encarnacion has clearly demonstrated more value, even if it is of the bat-first variety. laroche's only edge might lie in an outside chance that he finds his potential; well, that and avoiding the chris carpenter aneurysm when he sees his infield is encarnacion-theriot-schumaker-pujols. i don't see what the interest in laroche is, even as depth. matt carpenter's MLE's suggest he could hit better than laroche right now, and i think being an average defensive talent is reasonable for carpenter.
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Comments
This is where becoming familiar with sabermetrics has paid off
I admit that a couple years ago, a 3.88 ERA would have looked pretty damn hot to me. Too bad that was achieved with a .245 BABIP. Good luck counting on him to repeat that, Reds fans. Those FIPs are much more instructive and aren’t too pretty, and are likely to only get worse due to regression and aging.
but i'd be ok
signing souperman to a milb deal w/ invite, if he’d do it
there’s worse things, like thinking bergman passing a physical of some kind means he can actually play in the outfield every other day, much less every day
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
even after steaming, dried crap can be burned to keep the stove hot.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 4, 2010 12:40 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Is it wrong to dream?
If we could…
Reyes SS
Theriot/Schumaker 2B
Pujols 1B
Holliday LF
Rasums CF
Freese 3B
Jay/Craig RF
Molina C
Pitcher
I know it won’t happen but wouldn’t it be nice?
You fit into me
like a hook into an eye
a fish hook
an open eye
if we're talking dream lineups that can never happen,
Skip schumaker is not in it.
"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."
by tom s. on Dec 4, 2010 1:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 4 recs
+1
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
i'm waiting for the cow to cowrect this
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
moooooola
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
cards "expect to be busy during winter meetings"
but, of course, it’s written by strauss. read if you dare.
hey Mo: theriot at 2B, boog at SS.
KEEP BRENDAN RYAN.
Even if Mo doesn't do anything substantial here on out
(And I assume he won’t)
There likely wouldn’t be any bigger news for the Cardinals than hearing that the Red Sox have (reportedly) traded for Adrian Gonzalez, thus removing perhaps the top bidder for Pujols’ services in a year. Of course, the Mets, Dodgers, and Angels are all still in play (and I won’t completely discount the Yankees signing Pujols to DH), but the departure of the Red Sox from the bidding certainly helps the situation from the Cards’ perspective.
by olddomination on Dec 4, 2010 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
and the contract terms will inform the pujols negotiations.
Pujols will demand more in years or money than howard and gonzalez, being better than either. That will be very tough for the cards to meet. 6y/ $27m per would be a low-end of reasonable.
"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."
by tom s. on Dec 4, 2010 2:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I just don't see hpw he springs for only 6 years
unless there are some friendly player options in there for a couple more
that's a very low floor - like mozeliak's opening offer.
"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."
by tom s. on Dec 4, 2010 2:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
my conspiracy theory is that a couple of east coast teams are driving the price up for Albert
the Sox will then try to trade A-Gon for him
it was all Jed Hoyer’s evil plan!
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
IKE FUCKING DAVIS
3.4 last year and he’s got 5 years of team control left and he costs like 500 K right now
no way they get pujols
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
wtf?
I got a text two days ago from cards fan in chitown saying we traded Ryan to the Pads for a ptbnl.
What’s going on here?
Life is tough, but it's tougher if you're stupid.
- John Wayne
I was fooled
sorry, I thought you had already figured out I was incorrect
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
OT: too many Joe Morgans
I have previously noted that the good news of Mr Morgan’s boot-off of the ESPN Sunday night game has been tempered by the fact that he is essentially being replaced by Bobby Valentine.
At these minutes, with CBS treating the North Carolina/Kentucky basketball game as a slice of WWIII, I am reminded that it is another winter of enduring the excessively nasal and overall obnoxious Clark Kellogg.
More parochially tho, I still have fingers crossed that Al Hrabosky will be removed far away from my ears and eyes for the 2011 season.
So, not only is Adrian Gonzalez apparently going to the Red Sox
But the Yankees and Jeter apparently agreed to a deal. “Three years, up to 51 million, tricky option,” according to the New York Post [pause for inevitable jabs at the NY Post’s status as near tabloid, which is largely deserved I will admit… OK, that should be enough time].
So, it looks like Jeter is agreeing to basically what the Yankees offered him to begin with, just with some bells and whistles added on. Some deferred money here, a weird possible option for a fourth year. Way closer to 3 years, 45 million than the alleged demands of the Jeter camp anyway. Can’t say I’m too surprised.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Does this mean...
That Freese’s true destiny is to be a willing foil to the true durable third baseman of the future? That his actions, while the source of much suffering in themselves, will serve to draw out this unbreakable man from obscurity for the greater good? And ask yourselves, honestly… do you ever remember Matt Carpenter being on the disabled list?
Maybe instead of Mr. Freese of Mr. Glass, we should call David, “Thin Ice”.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
makes perfect sense
when was the last time we had a 3rd sacker who didn’t qualify as being made of glass? Gary Gaetti?
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
but he hurt his knee that one time playing football!
"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."
by tom s. on Dec 4, 2010 3:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
and then the sharks
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Anybody have some tax questions or need some tax advice?
deductions, exemptions, tax credits, deferrals, depreciations, etc. Seems like it would be a more interesting way of studying than what I’m currently doing, burying my head in 2,000 pages of text and Internal Revenue Code.
are you in law school?
studying for finals?
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
not right now
but maybe in a couple of months. Well, there is one thing. . . does TurboTax really maximize my return?
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
I was just kidding
I don’t think one semester of Tax qualifies me to give tax advice you can take to the bank. As for turbo tax, it probably depends on whether it automatically gives you the standard deduction or if it lets you itemize (and which one is better you for you). Also, I don’t know if it picks up all the tax credits that could be available to you.
Re: Encarnacion
…his personality would be likely to irritate the hell out of la russa.
Do you see this as a minus or a plus. I’m leaning toward the latter.
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 4, 2010 3:16 PM EST reply actions
so would you rather see the Cardinals sign more MIF'rs or Encarnacion/Laroche?
I think Laroche could have a good offensive season out of the blue, and of course plays defense like David Freese (if his ankles are made of ice Laroche wouldn’t be much of a downgrade, if at all). not sure about Encarnacion, I haven’t paid much attention to his career, but it seems he is a lot better of hitter. I just worry that if they downgrade shortstop defense, as well as having bad defense at 3rd, would be a bad idea. but we have grown pretty used to bad defense at third, other than the start of 2010 (which was quite nice)
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 3:20 PM EST reply actions
the cards need someone at 3rd
given freese’s injury history, and the fact that they have virtually no backup for him. laroche over encarnacion, but the priority should be 3B, not MIF.
hey Mo: theriot at 2B, boog at SS.
KEEP BRENDAN RYAN.
yeah, I'd like to see them sign Laroche (although Hudson would probably be a better signing given their propensity for handing the 2nd base job to schumaker right now)
which I think should be his to lose in spring training. hopefully they will be fair about that (since I’d much rather see a brendan ryan/ryan theriot infield than a theriot/schumaker infield. Theriot is better at second base). anyways, while Freese’s injury history is not very encouraging lately, at least we can still claim small sample size since he hasn’t really played much yet. I’m unsure of how he was in the early minor leagues for injuries.
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
why should it be laroche's job to lose?
he has SUCKED lately and Freese just put up a 1.5 fWAR season if i remember correctly
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
sorry, I was pretty unclear their
was rambling a bit. what I meant was, they are going to probably hand 2nd base to schu, and that if he should be outperformed in spring training, he should not start at 2nd
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
oh sorry
the parentheses threw me off… totally agree.. schumaker should not be handed the job but have to earn it
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
- sign Laroche as backup third baseman (which I would not advocate if they had given T. Greene some playing time at third last season instead of signing Feliz).
- they can maintain that Schu is the starting second baseman for the offseason, but if Brendan Ryan is still a Cardinal, he should be given a chance to remain the starting shortstop, which would move Theriot to 2nd if Schumaker stinks in ST. I think Ryan should remain on the team since they have no really good reason for getting rid of him. anyways, him being a defensive backup is not the worst thing in the world if they insist on not giving him a starter role.
- if Freese gets hurt, they can start Laroche at third, Ryan at short, and Theriot at second base. this would not hurt the defense at least.
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
i want that marquez or whatever cubs player
that was left exposed in the rule V draft
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
Johnny the Tackling Alzeimer's Patient?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Everything I learned about hospitals
I learned from Scrubs
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 4, 2010 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
Gonzalez to sawks seems to be done
pitcher Casey Kelly, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, outfielder Reymond Fuentes, and a ptbl heading to san diego
A lot for a one year rental.
Of course, san diego would have lost them next year. Hopefully as soon as he shows up in Boston they extend him.
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
i think they've already got an extension worked out
or very close at least. someone posted that terms in maybe the last thread. something like 7 years at $27MM AAV
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
I wonder what VEP thinks of the deal?
Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have? Frank Chance 1908
i don't know about those prospects
but i’d say there’s about a zero chance that their total median WAR minus salary isn’t going to be way greater than one year of gonzalez considering that that’s about 18 years of team control
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
yeah but that is one year of Adrian Gonzalez plus two high picks they will never get
Gonzalez is an elite bat and if he signs an extension the Red Sox made a good deal.
Likely one of those players has at least one all-star type season(my money is on Kelly) one will be a productive player, and the other will either wash out or be a bench bat.
If any of them are really good the Red Sox can sign them in FA in a few years
Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have? Frank Chance 1908
The drafts picks aren't worth that much
Not nearly as much as established prospects (yes I know this is oxymoronic).
Those are gooooooood prospects in this deal
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
yeah but way young
Brandon Wood was hitting 46hr and 52 doubles in 600abs at that age there is a lot of room to wash out beween A+/AA and MLB
Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have? Frank Chance 1908
And Pujols was hitting for a .900 OPS at that age
There is a lot of room for improvement between A+/AA and MLB.
sure but for every Hanley there are a lot of washouts
Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have? Frank Chance 1908
I don't get the whole six times whatever number of prospects it is thing
It almost never works out that way.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 4, 2010 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
it's not my logic
i don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a return that is equivalent what is given up in prospects. not equivalent in the sense of median WAR projection, at least
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
We could go on forever about this
But my understanding is that value now>value later since it’s really hard to know how things will play out long-term. Also, one great player is much more valuable than three players whose value add up to the one. Adrian Gonzalez is very likely the best player in the deal and the Red Sox get the exclusive opportunity to sign him beyond this year. All this is worth quite a bit to large market teams.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 4, 2010 6:00 PM EST up reply actions
Good deal for the Pads
But also good for the Red Sox – given their 150+ million payroll and incredibly strong roster, they don’t really need to worry about prospects.
This is what happens when two competent GM’s trade with eachother.
Watching 3 games at once
Duke vs Butler – BBall
Oregon vs Oregon St – CFB
Auburn vs SC – CFB
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 4, 2010 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
go oregon state
two reasons… 1) don’t want Oregon in NC 2) my friend is a 3 star recruit RB committed to OSU
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
I want a good game but Oregon to win
Pac 10 baby
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
i love how they are showing nebraska destroying blaine gabbert
it’s a little disheartening to be honest in the halftime report
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
i blame you.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
i'm watching Serenity
someone please stop me
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
It's all right
I’m a leaf on the wind!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
you gorram bastard
ok
i’ll stop at the planet.
i really will
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I still can't believe the Braves traded Escobar
for what was essentially Alex Gonzalez and Rick Ankiel. Escobar had a .299/.377/.436 line in 09 as a 26 year old. 2010 was rough but overall Really?
Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have? Frank Chance 1908
Yeah, the Braves should have taken a page out of Bostons playbook
and tried to negotiate an extension before pulling the trigger.
You fit into me
like a hook into an eye
a fish hook
an open eye
I believe their shortstop had some kind of huge problem with... their... clubhouse....
ohnoez
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
apparently the cards just signed berkman to a 1 year deal.
hey Mo: theriot at 2B, boog at SS.
KEEP BRENDAN RYAN.
Either Pujols is on his way out...
or a guy who hasn’t played the OF regularly since 2004 is going to be doing his best Vlad Guerrero impersonation on a nightly basis.
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
Meh, put him in left
He’ll be fine. He was a good OF
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
in two thousand and freaking four.... That was a loooong time ago.
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
i dunno man
that was a long time ago. if he’s as good as duncan, that’s about all we can hope for. his bat will be nice, though
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
Was. Before he lost a knee and had another dozen peanut butter and banana sandwiches.
Brendan Ryan is still a St. Louis Cardinal.
Aaron Miles is not.
sweet...
Our offense is set… now the pitchers just have to keep it on the ground.
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
Elvis
has entered the building
http://twitter.com/CardsInsider/status/11180255838474240
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
hell yeah!!!
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
YESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYSESYESYESYESYES
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
what universe IS this
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
where the hell is he gonna play?
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
i don't give a shit right now
right now the important thing is we got LANCE FUCKING BERKMANN
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
ETHEL MERMAN
…wait.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
cardinals sign lance merkmann to one year deal
by DanUpBaby on Dec 4, 2010 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
My son's name is also Bort.
"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
follow me on teh twitterz @greenfieldt
so clearly
Mo is collecting one from each NL Central team, once removed
that leaves Bucs, Crew, Reds…
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Laroche for 3b
JJ Hardy for ss (he still counts as a brewer right? ;))
im not sure about a red
by jealousblues on Dec 4, 2010 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
who?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
play him at second
can’t be any worse at defense than Schu, amirite?
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
haha...
Craig is fucked he’s Anthony Reyes part II he won’t even make the roster now… Ryan and Craig for Jose Molina in a big FU to the VEB crowd
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
Berkman can't hit lefties
Craig presumably can
He’ll get plenty of ABs
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
ah...
He can take Winn’s place:
Holliday, Rasmus, Jay, Berk, and Craig
Freese, Theriot, Skip, Ryan, Pujols, and another guy
Molina plus backup
I like this team… we just need a third baseman.
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
Craig != Reyes
Craig is actually a good player.
Anyway, now that i’ve stirred that Hive, tony seems to like Craig.
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
fantastic!
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:16 PM EST reply actions
berkman?
id still like to see hudson
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
Note: It's quite possible that Berkman and Craig will have a psuedo-platoon
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
I don't get the Berkman deal, he's aging and has bad knees.
He’s not a good outfield either.
Cliff Lee: "Seventy or 80 percent of [Hamilton] is better than everyone else. Everyone knows his history. He’s a complete player who plays every aspect well. He’s the best player I’ve ever played with. That’s the best compliment I can give him.’’
He also had a .390 OBP
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Berkman for leadoff!
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
Last time he played outfield was 2007 and that was 32 games.
And his UZR/150 was -48.4, with all that coming in RF.
Cliff Lee: "Seventy or 80 percent of [Hamilton] is better than everyone else. Everyone knows his history. He’s a complete player who plays every aspect well. He’s the best player I’ve ever played with. That’s the best compliment I can give him.’’
That means almost nothing
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Still hasn't played a game in the OF since 2007, that means something to a degree.
Cliff Lee: "Seventy or 80 percent of [Hamilton] is better than everyone else. Everyone knows his history. He’s a complete player who plays every aspect well. He’s the best player I’ve ever played with. That’s the best compliment I can give him.’’
did you watch any Cardinals games last years?
it was three to four hitters and the rest were automatic outs. That, and that alone, is why this makes some sense.
I know, but dang.
Cliff Lee: "Seventy or 80 percent of [Hamilton] is better than everyone else. Everyone knows his history. He’s a complete player who plays every aspect well. He’s the best player I’ve ever played with. That’s the best compliment I can give him.’’
I am
totally with you on this. Why is everyone so ecstatic about getting a veteran with declining physical capacity to play LF for us? And $8 million? I would rather have paid $2m for Arthur Rhodes, and find a young LF for less than $6m (supply any name).
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on Dec 5, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Have to say, I'm pleasantly surprised that DeWallet has been open
Though it sure makes you wonder, if the money spent on Berkman, Theriot and Schumaker wouldn’t have been better spent on say Uggla.
i wonder how much they paid him
i would’ve expected him to go for about $10MM. i hope this doesn’t imply something nefarious about pujols
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
The number being floated was $7M
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
from back when we were lolling about the cardinals "interest"
or has this been stated more recently?
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
It was Morosi tweet, saying that one front office exec expects Berkman to sign for 1 year $7M
This was like a week ago
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Signing a 35 year old to a 1 year deal doesn't scream "Albert is leaving" to me
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
by mysterui on Dec 4, 2010 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
yeah
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
if it does then id question
backup plans
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
yeah my thoughts too
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
now he and Albert can chat *all* the time.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
bill james projects berkman to a .385 wOBA
if he gets 550 PAs and is a -10 LF, that puts him at about 2.5 WAR, i think
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
outfield upgrade then in all likelihood
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
Seems like Craig/Jay could've...
mustered something close to that.
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
TLR is not patient enough with young guys
i havent like dhow hes handled the young OFS the last 2 yrs
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
What if we limit his ABs against lefties and give them to Craig?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
I wouldn't use Bill James projections liberally.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 4, 2010 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
It's the only option we have right now
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
also, CHONE is gone right?
that sucks
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
to Seattle?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
heh
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
i do miss the figgins jokes.
is he relevant yet?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
He isn't allowed to say
It could just as well be any other team. Other than the Phillies, I guess.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 4, 2010 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
it's better than taking the time to formulate by own projection system
it also seems reasonable to me, assuming he’s healthy
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
James projections are notriously optimistic for hitters.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 4, 2010 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
adjust down by 10%, if you like
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
we had this conversation yesterday
and no one was able to provide empirical evidence for the claim. i’m still open to finding some
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
I think they should be alright for players with a lot of experience - there's not a lot of room for error in those projections
I mean his careerr wOBA is .400, it’s .387 the past three seasons – this seems about right to me.
Giving greatest weight to last year
and the steady decline he’s shown, a little better than last year is reasonable. .385 would be a pleasant surprise.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 4, 2010 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
Nope, your wrong!
A 5-4-3 weighted-by-plate-appearance average of his past three seasons yields a .381 wOBA. Regression to the mean and aging probably bumps that down to a .370 mark; however, Berkman also had a .282 BABIP last year (.40 points below his career average).
If you were to do a proper project, weighting and regression each component based on it’s degree of repeatability (as measured by year to year correlations), and individual aging components, his projection would be higher than the simple weighted average of his wOBA. ZIPS and CHONE and probably Bill James all do something like that, so I would have to think that a reasonable projection for him is around a .380 wOBA.
He had a 44 wRC+ against LHP last year, and faced them in only about 20% of his total PAs. I think 5-4-3 is fine, but I would also want to consider how much of the aggregate wOBA was protected by favorable platoon matchups.
(not that I think his actual talent level against LHP is 44 wRC+, of course)
But I do imagine he’s only slightly above-average at best against them, at this stage.
but as you saw in 09
he is not necessarily done yet
Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have? Frank Chance 1908
Well let's see
Berkman’s career wRC+ against LHP is 108, so I don’t think he’s a major liability in that department. And for his career he’s faced lefties 24% of the time, compared to 19% last year.
So maybe there is something to worry about there, but it’s minor and it appears to mostly be noise. Besides, I would rather have him platooned and give Craig most of the at bats vs. lefties. He probably has a higher run expectation against them, and it would help his development.
My stated vote is a Berkman/Craig platoon too. But:
http://twitter.com/#!/dgoold/status/11209505614331904
“Cardinals going to shift Craig back to third during spring, just to find another way for his bat to be on team. #stlcards”
So that’s two players (Theriot, Berkman) I’m happy to have on the roster, and much less happy about the way they plan to use them. Very frustrating.
There's a reason he progressively has less PAs per year.
Making him an outfielder again won’t help that. There’s also a reason his BABIP and ISO dipped. He just isn’t hitting the ball as hard.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 4, 2010 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
BABIP does not necessarily correlate to how well you are hitting ball ya know right?
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
I would think it might have a bit to do with it
Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have? Frank Chance 1908
BABIP does correlate with how hard you hit the ball
But very little, like a .15 correlation, if you were able to figure it out.
That’s because BABIP is so influenced by things outside of the batters control. It means very little about a batters performance.
so a 40 point drop is more than likely a result of unluckiness
than not hitting as hard
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
Yes
Or in other words, 80% of his drop in BABIP can be explained by luck, and the rest is explained by him not hitting it as hard. Since his BABIP was also lower in 2009 and he’s older, his true talent BABIP going forward is probably in the .300 – .310 range, which of course is still well above what it was last year.
The reason he has gotten progressively less plate appearances is that he played for the Yankees last year
And he was like their backup first basemen (fuck the Yankees). Before the trade, he played in roughly 85% of the Astro’s games, which is only a bit lower than his career pace. I don’t know what happened in 2009, maybe he was injured.
Also, the BABIP and ISO arguments are crap and you know it. Both of those are heavily influenced by things outside of a batter’s control and single season trends in those areas are inadequate towards showing a delince or change in performance. Get that shit outta here.
His performance slipping had a good deal to do with his being a backup.
The Yankees acquired him with every intention of him being their DH. Maybe a return to the NL will rejuvinate him. It doesn’t take much research to know that Berkman has had some injury problems over the past couple years.
You can call it crap but I would find it an odd coincidence that his BABIP was a career low the same time his GB% and infield fly percentages went up and his LD%, FB% and HR/FB were as low as they’ve ever been. He probably isn’t any faster thanks to his injuries and I doubt his bat speed is any faster. In fact, according to Hit Tracker Online, his average home run speed off the bat dropped four MPH and 30 feet per home run despite having 11 fewer than in 2009, and both numbers were by far the lowest since this data has been collected.
He may have a great 2011 for the Cardinals. I hope he does. It would go against his recent trends, though.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 4, 2010 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
People said the same things about Vlad Guerrero before last season
And look how that turned out.
I'll add a little to my point to actually make it, you know, a point:
It’s true that injury and aging and blah blah blah certainly have an effect on these older players and sometimes they DO drop off the cliff, but just because they had one bad year doesn’t mean its all over for them. In this day and age a lot of people are overestimating how much impact aging really has on how a player will perform in the future and if they have a bad season due to a variety of factors – like Berkman, with his poor BABIP probably due in part to luck and in part to other factors – they like to take it as a sure sign a guy is done when in reality it’s mostly just a down year, like any player is prone to having.
It’s possible Berkman is done but its also quite possible he posts a .400 wOBA with a neutral UZR or something. I tend to agree with most of the sentiment here; the .385 wOBA projection is probably fairly reasonable.
The thing to worry about is how many games he’ll miss due to injury.
I find it concerning that there are some signs his bat is slowing.
I don’t think he’s falling off a cliff but he has shown fading.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 4, 2010 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
what's double plays got to do with it.
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
Why
are we talking about batting only? I just cannot envision a guy with gimpy knees lasting the season in LF, let alone making plays. If his name was Larry Walker I would be OK with this, but not Lance at this stage in his career. To me, he is a DH, not an NL player any more. This reminds me of the DeRosa deal, a ticking physical bomb. This is more TLR love of veterans. Mo’s interview about great clubhouse guy tells it all. What has clubhouse presence done for us 3 out of the last 4 years? And why are we getting an OF guy when the pressing need is in the infield? And Ryan Theriot, he of the 0 WAR, doesn’t give me any confidence at all. Going back to the James projections, Theriot looks better than Ryan, but the projection is only offense. If it was WAR, I think that Brendan would come out better. In short, these moves don’t excite me at all. For the Berkman $8m and a little more, we could have had Torrealba and Tejada.
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on Dec 5, 2010 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
this offense just got considerably better
theriot
berkman
pujols
holliday
rasmus
freese
molina
skip
pitcher
eh??
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
Berkman is going to look weird as hell..
in a Cardinal uni. I hated that guy for a long time.
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
by guayzimi on Dec 4, 2010 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I always liked Berkman
he always seemed to play the game right
/end dave pendleton shtick
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
go Elvis!
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
especially since he was in houston for so long
i bet it’s gonna be just as weird for stros fans
hey Mo: theriot at 2B, boog at SS.
KEEP BRENDAN RYAN.
they exist
?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
you spoke with one!
egads!
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
The killer B's
Berkman
Bujols
Bolliday
Bolby Basmus
by jealousblues on Dec 4, 2010 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Killer M's
Matt
Merkman
Mang
Molina
’maker
Mr. Freese
…Moomhauer?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I never hated him
but he was never my fav, and yes he IS going to look weird in a Cards uni
god, it makes me feel like playing the MLB game on Xbox back in the day
(I sucked with lefties but could hit anything out with so many rh hitters)
by jealousblues on Dec 4, 2010 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
why is the pitcher batting 9th?
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
That sounds about right to me
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
mo' says he's an everyday player
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
mo doesn't fill out the lineup cards
and in the lineup against all RHP is about as close as one can get to being an everyday player without being albert pujols or yadier molina on a TLR run roster
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
TLR is gonna sit a veteran, who is actually a good hitter,
in favor of allen f. craig?
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
I don't think he's ever been show to be averse to platooning people like that
First off, of course, Craig has to show that he’ll be an improvement over LHP
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Berkman, at his age
is not going to be able to play every day as an OFer. The only way he makes it through the season is sitting against LHPs and probably even has some off days against RHPs too
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
yeah, my feeling is that he shouldn't be an every day starter
but his off days he would be the pinch hitter
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
he should play as much as able,
but i just only see him able to play about 130 games, w/o looking at his b-r page….i’m lazy
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
I think if he's playing the outfield he may as well only play about that many games
save his aging knees and whatnot. then when he’s not starting he can pinch hit several order of magnitude better than Nick Stavinoha
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
also
interleague games he would be DH
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
good point
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
Matt's backup
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
he set Winn
in favor of Jon jay.
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
Well, shit.
I think age, dubious OF experience/stats, and a long history of middling offense against LHP will bring him down quite a bit if he’s out there all the time. Plus ItWillCostCraigDevelopment™.
Craig is 27 now
he’s not exactly a top prospect that we are ruining…
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
Ludwick was 29 when we brought him up in 2007
Like Craig, he mashed in AAA. I don’t think Craig has as high a ceiling as Ludwick – especially because of defense – but (early) age of callup isn’t the only factor in player value.
don't really care. he's a far better hitter than craig.
He’d have to be adam dunn to make this a close call between him and jay or craig.
That said, I hope the FO promised him $10k for every pound under 240 he weighs on april 1.
"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."
by tom s. on Dec 4, 2010 6:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Mo said that about rasmus too
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=548&position=1B/OF&season=0#advanced
Career 162 wRC+ versus RHP, 108 vs LHP.
Mozeliak on Berkman: "He’s an impact player who not only helps solidify our everyday lineup, but he also brings a wealth of experience."
http://twitter.com/#!/Ackerman1120/status/11181776974123008
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
take away point being that he's gonna be an everyday player
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
everyday player??
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/cardinals-sign-lance-berkman.html
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
berkman has got to be a type A, right?
picks! did the yankees offer arb?
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
well,
let’s hope he bounces back to something like his ’09 form and is a type A FA
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
Then you would have to offer arb for a pick
which he would undoubtedly accept.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 4, 2010 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
Why would he undoubtedly accept?
If he bounces back and has a good year, then he’ll sign for more elsewhere
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
if he pops off a 4+ WAR season,
he’ll be fielding multi-year offers. if he accepts arb, we keep him for no more than $10MM.
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
That may be true
I don’t see it as a likely scenario, though. Jim Thome isn’t really fielding multi-year offers and his 2010 for Berkman is sort of a best-case scenario type of deal.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 4, 2010 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
It's also a sample size of one
Which means that you can’t judge how the free agent market is responding to Thome, and extrapolate that to how they will respond to Berkman a year later.
How's Vlad Guerrero as an example?
A .360 wOBA would be pretty good from Berkman. It is sort of a comparable situation as to when the Rangers signed Guerrero, given the age. The Cardinals, though, don’t have the advantage of putting Berkman at DH or even 1B. If you expand Berkman’s contract to account for better performance, it gets even less clear. The point is, Guerrero isn’t getting offered what his performance would warrant.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 4, 2010 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
healthwise, too
I’ve never seen someone look as old on the bases as vlad guerrero the last few years.
I like this comparison in general, though.
he has knees?!
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
yeah, two of them
the left one most recently and he tore his right ACL in 2005. But Vlad Guerrero runs like Cotton Hill.
by DanUpBaby on Dec 4, 2010 6:24 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I'm not sure I would ever describe Vlad as "running"
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2010 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
this guy...?
maybe
http://video.adultswim.com/king-of-the-hill/ode-to-cotton.html
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
It makes me further question humanity's future
when Cotton Hill’s wikipedia page is that detailed
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
hank's daddy
c’mon , it was on right before futurama!
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
LOL
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
I never watched King of the Hill
I don’t think it was even approaching humorous
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
You obviously didn't grow up around rednecks
if you had you saw a lot of people you knew in that show.
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
I never liked it or thought it was funny
and this is coming from someone who thinks The Simpsons seasons 3-8 is THE all-time pinnacle of comedic television, and that Futurama was an outstanding comedic program in its own right. Just never really took to King of the Hill, though.
king of the hill reminds me of seasons 1-3 of the simpsons, honestly
in terms of its occasionally sentimental emphasis on the family situation.
Among other reasons I liked it because it could have been a really easy potshot at “rednecks” but in fact had a lot of nuance, and (especially weird for a sitcom father) hank hill was actually a truly decent guy.
at first i resented it bc judge cancelled
bevis & butthead in order to focus on it. but it really was a good show with a lot of heart.
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
+1
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
it was funny
although not overwhelmingly so.
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 7:51 PM EST up reply actions
Berkman is better than Guerrero and less injury prone
And, sample of two is hardly better than sample of one.
Let’s pretend you are actually making a legimate argument here and not just talking out of your ass.
Go find me the last 10 1B/LF/DH players who put up a 4 WAR performance prior to free agency in their mid 30’s and let’s see what they got (BTW, I have a counter example, just of top of my head – Aubrey Huff).
I have a suggestion to make from out of my ass
try not to be the most abrasive person on earth when making legitimate arguments. nobody appreciates it, least of all me, and nobody finds it instructive.
by DanUpBaby on Dec 4, 2010 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I understand, I'm sorry, I won't do it anymore
But this guy comes in here once for the first time in like a month on the heals of the first good move this team has made in like a year, and makes every kind of fallacious argument in the book to convince us that this isn’t a good deal. That reeks of trolling to me, if not highly articulate trolling.
I don't think it's a bad deal
I don’t think it’s a great one, either. It’s at least questionable given that it just doesn’t seem prudent to have Berkman play the majority of his games in the outfield. Otherwise I would see it as a decent move.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 4, 2010 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
but really
it’s all upside. it’s less safe than a hudson signing, but the worst case scenario is that he never takes a PA as a cardinal and we get 2 WAR out of a jay/craig platoon. best case scenario is he’s healthy all year and he BABIP lucks into something like 5.5 WAR, becomes type A and walks giving us picks
picks!
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
plus, if Jay/Craig do break out
we can trade him for something shiny at the trade deadline.
And it gives us insurance for Albert’s elbow.
I dunno, I doubt they would trade Berkman midseason if we are contending
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
true dat
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
the man has a career .400 wOBA
that’s, like, matt holliday
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
Actually, it won't be announced until after the winter meetings, but
ol’ Bud has decided to extend the DH to the NL. Berkman for DH. Either that, or this move was made so we’d have a valid DH in the 2011 WS.
Padres' RFL for GG!
if this were true,
i’d expect other teams to be making wtf signings of this nature also
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
you've just been in Texas too long
they don’t seem to understand sarcasm down here.
Padres' RFL for GG!
Nationals
You didn’t see the contract the Nats just gave Jayson Werth? Do you need any more evidence?
by WizardofOz1982 on Dec 7, 2010 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
couldn't agree more.
the upside is huge and the downside is nil (except for the money). If Berkman gets hurt, we just go back to Jay/Craig anyway.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 4, 2010 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
only if we jump in the DeLorean & go back to 2002
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
so let me get this straight
we’ll sign awesome guys
and then put them in the wrong roles…?
there better be some Sun Tzu s**t going down here, and it best not be on us
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 4, 2010 5:29 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
berkman's going to play 1850s shortstop
where they just kind of stood around behind the infielders and in front of the outfielders. brendan ryan will volunteer to play second and short and then be traded for jim thome.
by DanUpBaby on Dec 4, 2010 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He can catch, right?
That’ll really boost his value
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 4, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
Albert to second base
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
I would totally be willing to try this out
but no way in the wwwofsports that happens
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
Saw the Milwaukee game where that happened.
Sadly no ground-ball came near him. I feel like Albert is so HFS that he could be better than Skip
"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
follow me on teh twitterz @greenfieldt
Albert was nursing something, and they told him not to turn anything
and I so distinctly recall him practicing the turn
he looked so pumped to do it
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
he pretty much already plays second
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
Bad idea...
Since Pujols is in his walk year we should just stick him at third and not worry about the elbow exploding.
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
Chris Duncan esque defense
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
Actually looks liek LF
w Holliday going to RF
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 4, 2010 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
According to Jon Heyman
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 4, 2010 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
this
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
so who do you trust more when it comes to baseball
Jon Heyman or John Hodgeman?
Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have? Frank Chance 1908
if you need to ask that question
you really need to spend more time at VEB
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
but I don't have any more time!
Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have? Frank Chance 1908
Amaury Marti Cazana
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
yes
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not upset about Berkman,
but If we’re really paying him $7mil, then I would have rather seen us sign Jack Cust on the cheap to platoon with Craig, and then sign O-dog to field 2nd/ insurance for 3rd. Probably would have cost the same and would have done more to improve the team IMO.
Padres' RFL for GG!
that sounds more level headed
but I find it hard to complain about signing a top hitter
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
OldHossRadbourn:
The Cardinals like Lance Berkman so much they are going to put a statue of him in the outfield this year
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 4, 2010 5:32 PM EST reply actions 10 recs
and a rec for Hoss
now let me go RT that
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
heh
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
too bad we couldnt have gotten Tejada too
(not that I want him, I just think that would be funny)
by jealousblues on Dec 4, 2010 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
GOOOOOOOOOOOLDDD!
dgoold Did see Berkman play 3B in college, so there’s that. #Cardinals active offseason continues with another “good in the room” sign. #stlcards 18 minutes ago via Twitter for iPhone
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I assume it's got a bed in it.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Wow...
that would be hilarious… Berkman to Schumaker to Pujols. Weirdest around the horn ever.
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
Fun with stats!
Berkman 2008 – 2010 wOBA: .387 (Matt Holliday esque). Over a full season (600 PA, 150 games) that’s worth about 31 runs above average (!). Let’s say he plays right field – that comes with a -7.5 run per 150 game positional adjustment (about). Add in replacement level (about 20 runs).
So before factoring in defense, Berkman’s a 4.4 WAR player (!!!!!). How bad could his defense possibly be? Even if he’s a -20 run defender (Adam Dunn esque), he’s still better than Jay or Craig. And I don’t think he’s a -20 run defender. His career UZR/150 in RF is -10 runs (in a small sample), and he’s actually been above average in left (in a small sample). Overall, in over 7,000 innings in the field (a pretty good sample size for UZR purposes), he’s been a -2 run defender in the OF. Now the last time he played the outfield was 2007, so some healthy aging needs to be applied. But still, I have to imagine the very worst he’ll be is a -10 run defender in the outfield. Still a 3+ WAR player!!!!
How much did we sign him for?
Not announced yet
I’m guessing somewhere between $7-10M
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Holliday said he'd move to RF too
and Larussa likes to move players around a lot… might see Berkman in right, left, third, who knows.
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
hey shut up
this was the first really cool move he’s made.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 4, 2010 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
that might have a high iron content.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
cough adam wainwright cough yadier molina cough
but i’m just breakin’ balls
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
its cool, for sure
in the “i’m excited because I have memories of Lance Berkman just dominating us season after season” sense.
In the actual baseball sense, it remains to be seen.
Fire John Mozeliak
they always end up with us
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
By all statistical analysis this looks like a fantastic move
Signing a 3+ WAR player to a one year deal well below market value and not giving up a draft pick? This is gold.
And there’s NO downside. If Berkman flops, we still have Craig/Jay – it’s not like we were going to use that 8 million elsewhere.
happy days are here again!
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
don't tempt them, man!
don’t you dare!
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
ok, I will mope again then
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT
we’re perfectly normal. perfectly. everything… everything is under control.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I think making it harder to afford a Hudson multi-year is a downside
And, to a lesser extent, the ability to develop Craig as a MLB OF.
would you like the accompanying gif?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
the milk carton
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I agree
But I don’t think we were going to sign Hudson anyway as that would require replacing Skip, and this team seems really reluctant to do that.
Point taken about Craig.
I kinda like that whole
signed Matt Holliday move myself.
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
At one time Berkman was a good enough athlete to play CF in the majors
that was a long time ago of course, but he’s got to be much, much better than Adam Dunn (who never ever had that ability in the first place).
Berkman actually has a good arm too. It wouldn’t surprise me if Berkman is about as good as Craig would be in the outfield.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 4, 2010 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
I say we just have Boog field both 2b and SS
and have four outfielders
Fire John Mozeliak
by purple_haze on Dec 4, 2010 5:37 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
per heyman
cards signed berkman for $8M, playing him in LF and moving holliday to RF
hey Mo: theriot at 2B, boog at SS.
KEEP BRENDAN RYAN.
wow
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
That's a steal for us, methinks
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
i'm willing to forgo hudson
if it means berkman. hudson is a lock for 2-3 WAR, but berkman could bounce back and be worth up to 5
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
Berkman could be worth up to X, but only for one year.
Let’s just give him 5, and let’s give a Craig/Jay platoon 2. That would be +3, for one year.
Schumaker was worth 1.5 WAR in 2009, -0.2 in 2010. Let’s give him 0.5 for 2010. If Hudson puts up another of his normal 3 WAR seasons, replacing Schumaker with him is +2.5 for one year – then shores up the position for another 1-2 on a multi-year deal.
I think you're right that Hudson would be a better use of money than Berkman
But I think it’s also unlikely that Mo was going to replace Skip for a non-star player. And Berkman is still a well above market value deal.
Compared to Hudson (who always seems to sign well below market value), it’s doesn’t look great, but then again, nothing looks great compared ot Hudson.
I think we just have to take this as a win.
What's the difference between replacing Schumaker
and replacing Jay and/or Craig?
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 4, 2010 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
About the same
Berkman is better than Hudson, Jay/Craig are better than Skip.
I’m not arguing that this deal was better than signing Hudson, I think I would have rather signed Hudson.
The enemy of the good is the perfect, or whatever. There is no possible case you can make for this not being a good deal.
Jay Craig for 2nd base!
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
I just don't get why there would be opposition in the FO to replacing Skip
but not Jay or Craig especially since replacing Skip is saving more money. I guess I’m undervaluing the TLR factor.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 4, 2010 6:36 PM EST up reply actions
Hudson is a big star compared to Schu
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
I do think it's a positive move, at a fair price
Results notwithstanding, I’m much more happy with it as a planned Berkman/Craig platoon in LF than Berkman every day, though. And I would have preferred Hudson.
As for likelihood, I dunno. I think if a Hudson opportunity fell out of the sky, Mo would consider it – but I’m sure he hasn’t and wouldn’t SEEK 2B replacements.
true Cardinal
so proud of you, Matty
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I am giddy
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
I mean, Holliday was a great defender in left
I’d imagine he’s no worse than average in right
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
so
that’s a full $100MM payroll before we add at least another $10MM with a pujols extension. unless it takes effect next season
dewallet: open
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
the Boxes have gotten wind of it
the two people there, that is.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2010/12/3/1853012/tcb-movie-club-makes-its-debut#53541567
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
front page
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2010/12/4/1855372/cardinals-sign-berkman-to-1-year-contract
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
should i be sad?
This is the 3rd sadest day
Of my 21 years of Astros baseball, right behind Bagwell retiring prematurely and losing game 4 of the world series… It serves Ed Wade right for making it seem to Berkman that he would get re-signed with Houston. Sad sad day for Astros fans.
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
Bagwell retired because he could no longer do anything with his right hand.
In or out of bed.
Brendan Ryan is still a St. Louis Cardinal.
Aaron Miles is not.
hwo was berkman not able to get a multi-year deal?
mo’ is the man!
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
IT'S THE PIE.
he does seem rather susceptible.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
yes, it is a bit of a coup, isn't it?
this rocks so hard
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
He had been talking about retiremnt early in 2010
this may be his last season… last chance to win it all with Pujols, Holliday, Carp, Waino, etc. as the core… seems like a good move for him. Especially if he can stick it to his old team
Padres' RFL for GG!
so..... chances of full grown men dressing up in puma suits at Busch Stadium...?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I LIKE THIS MOVE
but seriously, where the eff did all this cash come from?
what does this put the payroll at?
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
I was thinking it would put it at around 104 mil, but I'm probably wrong
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
ah, I thought we were at AT LEAST 96 already
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
they dug up the body from the Ballpark Village site
it just took them a while because of the money pit
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 4, 2010 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Over a 100
Although I don’t mind if this is our last money move. This improves our team by a solid 2 wins.
does Berkman still have 5+ WAR potential?
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
I think it's there
more likely 4-5
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
Yup
.400 wOBA an average defense (both things he has done many times before), would give a 5 WAR projection over 600 PA.
I wouldn’t bank on that – but his median projection is somewhere around 3 WAR, and with attainable upside.
And he himself doesn't have to give us 5 WAR, necessarily
If he and Craig platoon to get us 5 WAR, that’s just as important
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
happy birth!
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
was confused
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
I definitely remember comments on the Lance Berkman end
to the effect that he would either want to play for the Yankees or the Cardinals if not the Astros.
Seems like the pie really does come into play here.
Fire John Mozeliak
eh, he just wanted to play for one of the top 2 teams in baseball history
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
"Lance, I think... I think you've had enough pie.... Lance! Dear god!!"
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
The more I think about it if Manny Ramirez and Pat Burrell can be starting LF
so can the Big Puma, still if he gets hurt they will have to send Fat Elvis to Memphis to rehab
Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have? Frank Chance 1908
I read that as "re-rib"
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
lol
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
Now we just need to convince
Russell Martin to sign for $2M as our backup catcher, keep Boog, and we’ll be neat.
this
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
I think I know how Martin would feel about it.
Someone would give him a starting job; there’s no way he becomes a backup C at this stage of his career.
another great thing about this trade is that it basically forces the team to keep Rasmus, right?
MO has to know he needs a premium defensive CF with those corners
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
you really are the most evil of the mattys
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
matty fight!
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I dunno
Jon Jay is a much more polished player than Colby Rasmus.
/TLR
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
something that was mentioned earlier
struggles against lefties.
hey Mo: theriot at 2B, boog at SS.
KEEP BRENDAN RYAN.
yup
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
for whom?
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions
A competent reliever
preferably left-handed, or a good closer.
TBH, I’d probably (definitely) go for a Jay-for-Heath-Bell deal. He’s probably gonna make about $6m or so next year so he’s hardly a massive bargain, but he’s a legit shutdown closer and, well, seems we’re (somewhat) in win-now mode. I doubt Jay will ever be valued higher anyhow.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 5, 2010 9:08 AM EST up reply actions
of course it will
i’ll bet the berk-jay-holl outfield will be quite prominent.
DAMN YOU TLR
"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
follow me on teh twitterz @greenfieldt
i think this gives Rasmus more ABs
i think Jay might get packaged in the Boog trade
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
I'm going over possible packages in my mind as well after this
They only thing that is clear to me right now is that the Cards have decided to increase the payroll, which isn’t bad in and of itself.
I would say that Mo is working on a trade or at least would very soon like to be working on a trade. I’m hoping that he had foresight enough to have those wheels in motion before inking Berkman.
I just didn’t see this Berkman signing coming at all.
Does anyone think TLR will want to use him in the no 2 slot in front of Pujols?
They say sing while you slave but I just get bored
by Scarecrow7775 on Dec 4, 2010 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
it sounds like berkman or holliday could be in the 2 slot
from what’s been suggested so far on here. frankly i’d be happy either way
hey Mo: theriot at 2B, boog at SS.
KEEP BRENDAN RYAN.
holliday is the cleanup hitter
every day. bank on it
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
I'd like to see
leadoff guy
Berkman
Holliday
Pujols
but it probably ain’t gonna happen
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 6:41 PM EST up reply actions
same
but i think this is more likely
theriot
rasmus/freese
pujols
holliday
berkman
which is okay, also, i guess
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
yeah, having three really good hitters
plus Rasmus is quite nice… I wonder if they are over the drama with him, or how TLR will platoon him. I’m guessing he starts about the same amount of games this season, barring a truly breakout start to the season, and continued hitting into the year… otherwise TLR will be tempted to tinker. and it seems he likes Jon Jay better.
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 7:58 PM EST up reply actions
any way you slice it, Berkman-Holliday-Pujols-Rasmus in the middle of the order
isn’t chopped liver…
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 5, 2010 9:09 AM EST up reply actions
pretty much
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
this is possible
but trades are pretty hard to foresee. Craig might be more likely candidate in trade since he was a better prospect
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 6:40 PM EST up reply actions
but we have an abundance of lefty OF bats, we need Craig for Tony's love of double switches
he might love double switches more than grittiness
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
good point
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 7:58 PM EST up reply actions
Double switches are a sign of managerial grittiness
Also, 3 pitchers used in an inning.
Brendan Ryan is still a St. Louis Cardinal.
Aaron Miles is not.
if no one's traded this definately cuts into his at bats
by I miss Jack Buck on Dec 4, 2010 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
well,
we’re supposed to “expect” another MIF move. looks like jay or craig could be expendable now. i’d like to move jay and this gives us a year to see what we have in craig
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
anything we can while his value is still something
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
Yeah, I don't think he has a role in this team much more than that of a 4th outfielder
He looked like a starter last year, so let’s try to get some value back.
Should get a decent haul
He’s young, had a very good season last year (BABIP excluded, but a lot GM’s still don’t look at that stuff).
that's what I was thinking
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
Berkmania.
Career .409 OBP in front of Albert? I can buy into that.
On the other hand, I would rather have an actual Puma strap on a glove and play the outfield.
I didn't know that chivalry still existed in your semi-savage country.
maybe they demoted Barry because he was unwilling or unable
to go along with the complicated puma-leg implant surgery
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I enjoy when the Cardinals make news on Saturday afternoons
makes my job sooooo much easier.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
how often does that happen?
my guess would be rarely and especially not one of this magnitude
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
curse your metal body!
Friday night is the right time!
"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."
by tom s. on Dec 4, 2010 9:28 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
yeah, but
you can’t even capitalize your letters. how are people supposed to read that and find out what’s going on, Dan S.?
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
NEWS OF THE ASTOUNDING
dgoold Mozeliak says lineup for 2011 is set after this move. #stlcards less than a minute ago via Twitter for iPhone
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Also goold
#Cardinals GM also describes payroll as “leaking” & pushed for deal. Berkman received higher salary as tradeoff for one year deal. #stlcards
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
are you serious?
no hudson..BOOOOOO
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
links
and
#Cardinals GM also describes payroll as “leaking” & pushed for deal. Berkman received higher salary as tradeoff for one year deal. #stlcards less than 20 seconds ago via Twitter for iPhone
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
what does leaking mean?
They need to dump salary? I suggest they start with Lohse.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
Yeah, that phrase was confusing to me as well
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
ntc's can be worked around
unless st louis is lohse’s utopia
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
well i'm a lifelong cards fan, so no
maybe lohse isnt the biggest tlr fan
maybe he wouldnt mind playing somewhere else
i’m just sayin it isnt impossible to move him
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
some team takes on lohse's salary
if colby is included in the deal, correct?
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
I hear the cardinals are looking to trade brendan ryan for the first warm body that comes their way
maybe we can dump kyle lohse on them. ryan can’t hit but he’d be an upgrade on defense…
no kidding?
I guess that means our special little guy will not be traded
They say sing while you slave but I just get bored
by Scarecrow7775 on Dec 4, 2010 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, the bench is still in flux
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
no, that just means the starting line-up is set
It’s a Boog-less line-up full of Riot, The. I could still see them trading him since he’s no longer the starter.
Padres' RFL for GG!
if we muse that this is a precursor for a trade for s 2nd baseman
any guesses on who Mo may be targeting?
They say sing while you slave but I just get bored
How is this a precursor for a new 2nd baseman?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
I was thinking that
this gives the Cards another trade chit who could be packaged with someone(s) else. The recent talk has been MIF and Mo has said Theriot is the shortstop, so…
They say sing while you slave but I just get bored
by Scarecrow7775 on Dec 4, 2010 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder what kind of second baseman Jay, Craig and Skip could get?
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
The crappy kind.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 5, 2010 9:11 AM EST up reply actions
Someone with a better memory than me help here
Wasn’t some of the logic behind the Ludwick trade that they couldn’t afford him in his final arb year?
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2010 6:24 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
maybe they just hated his face.
Pads sure had to give up a lot, too.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
that's what we were saying
i think the official logic was that we needed a SP more than we needed a league average OFer. i’m inclined to agree. i also think berkman is a good bet to be better than luddy next year
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
agreed on all of the above.
That trade, IMO, was another feather in Mo’s cap. (of course, I never had any particular attachment to ludwick, so it never bothered me to see him go)
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 4, 2010 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
i think it was a pretty even trade
but seeing what the pads gave up to get us westbrook kind of hurts
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
if we hadn't signed westbrook then that trade would have looked horrid
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
couldnt afford that potential 7M salary
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
I can't remember if the FO used that logic though I know people here said that was part of the logic
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 4, 2010 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
I know and I'm aware this isn't crowdsourcing from a netral sampling
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
My memory isn't better than yours
but that was at least the only way that deal made sense, vis-a-vis a run-up to a massive Pujols extension
They say sing while you slave but I just get bored
by Scarecrow7775 on Dec 4, 2010 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
Well and Westbrook was a pretty good return
But yeah, this just seems like a circular way to get what we already had. A 3 WAR outfielder with high upside.
heh
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
you know it had nothing to do with $$$$ & everything to do with TLR
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
so with Berkman in the 2 hole and Holliday batting clean-up
will Pujols have his best statistical season EVER!?
Padres' RFL for GG!
i don't think it works like that
but if he did it I would totally be ok with it
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
was liking the Berkman deal if they got another MIF
solid back up at 3b or something and hudson. But the lineup being set. Dont liek that, unless they sign AP long term
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
the payroll is already beyond $100MM
i don’t think your expectations are realistic
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
but we can dream right?
i would have rather seen a MIF than another OFer..
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
i would have, too
but i didn’t think berkman was a realistic choice for an OF. i think i prefer berkman over any FA 2B. hudson or berkman might be a wash. both likely to be about 2 WAR upgrade. (i’m projecting skip for 1-2 WAR)
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
what about something different
whats the defensive splits between skippy and Hudson? or whose the 3b backup for freeze?
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
i dunno about defense specifically
i just see skip as 1-2 WAR and hudson as 2-3 WAR. jay/craig as 1-3WAR and berkman as 3-4 WAR with a ceiling around 5 WAR if he’s healthy
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
IF
yeah i was thinking D and someone to turn a DP better than skip…or like i said insurance at 3b..Laroche to a MIL wouldnt be bad
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
i think skip is good at turning DPs
he definitely has the arm. his range is the issue and maybe his hands to an extent
unless you meant “turn DPs” in a more abstract “play 2B” sense
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
they could still get a backup for Freese and it wouldn't affect the opening day lineup
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 6:59 PM EST up reply actions
If the lineup is set, does that mean Boog is safe?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
he did not win immunity in the last challenge, no.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
he is somewhere between tlr roleplayer and not being on the team at this point
most likely he’ll be traded with craig or jay to another team. small chance he’ll just get released as well.
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
If we fail to sign an adequate 2B or at least start Boog at Short and Theriot at 2nd...
this is shaping up to be one of our worst defensive teams of the last decade.
Berkman in LF
Holliday in RF
3B is still a relative question mark given Freese’s injury escapades
Theriot at SS
Skip at 2B
I didn't know that chivalry still existed in your semi-savage country.
so
2B and LF are the only spots that are below average
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
Unless there's a backdrop of towels...
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
Does him sacrificing a testicle factor into this statement...
or would that constitute a small sample size?
I didn't know that chivalry still existed in your semi-savage country.
by The Classical on Dec 4, 2010 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
did you just refer to the avocado
Matt Holliday, and small sample size?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Holliday is almost certainly moving to RF
at least, I hope
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
I know right
a freaking circus
They say sing while you slave but I just get bored
by Scarecrow7775 on Dec 4, 2010 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
wrong
Freese is average to good fielder and TGreene should be too
Theriot is an average fielder don’t be fooled by his milesness
and Holliday should be good in right
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
Doesn't matter if we score more runs than we lose, eh?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Holliday isn't a bad defender by objective measures availble to us currently
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
although Holliday is somehow fine
I would never guess that the way he approaches grounds/files
“oh shit oh shit oh shit oh shit” that’s what seems like is going through his head
They say sing while you slave but I just get bored
by Scarecrow7775 on Dec 4, 2010 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
i also worry about his arm in RF
his arm has been negative in LF, and that doesn’t sound like it is going to translate well.
But I’m still excited to see what this lineup does.
a big part of Holliday's WAR in 2009 was from him being an elite defender by UZR
not sure what that says about UZR or if it is actually accurate, but it surely means he’s not a bad defender.
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
TBH, last year I thought he was little short of excellent.
He really put that bad drop in LA behind him, I think. I can’t remember him missing a catchable ball and most of his routes looked pretty solid. He’s a big guy but moves pretty well. I think I’m in agreement with the defensive metrics – Holliday is an above-average corner outfielder, to my eye at least.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 5, 2010 9:14 AM EST up reply actions
Berkman
I like it. As the roster is now, it gives us multiple options for RF, and strengthens the bench. OR…..it gives us a trade chip in Jay.
Craig might be just as valuable a chip
any of these guys could go in a heartbeat via trade for, not sure what position but hey, here we go:
Jay
Craig
Boog
bullpen guys (hopefully including Franklin)
T. Greene
the rest is pretty well set I think
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
Things thatpiss me off
pick aa hotel because it has a bar, and find out that it will e closed tonight. Comfy 8hai1 for Me.
NOBODY EXPECTS THE SPANISH INQUISITION!!!!!
by The Spanish Inquisition on Dec 4, 2010 6:32 PM EST reply actions
I didn't expect that.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 4, 2010 6:33 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
you didn't expect that, right?
it’s not just me?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Also mobile commenting.
NOBODY EXPECTS THE SPANISH INQUISITION!!!!!
by The Spanish Inquisition on Dec 4, 2010 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
This was definitely not expected
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
by mysterui on Dec 4, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
you lie
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
i watched some monty python last night
i always expect the spanish inquisition
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
by mattyfrommo on Dec 4, 2010 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
btw
the network has been down at work for about 4 hours. fiber cut. but the only thing that’s down is the local network. good chance i sit here and fuck off for 5 hours and get paid. good day to do it with the berkman signing to discuss
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
I'm okay with Mo saying the lineup is set...
as long as there is a depth signing for 3B…
Who of the Bill Hall, Ty Wiggington, Jorge Cantu, Eric Chavez, Andy LaRoche class do you guys like?
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 4, 2010 6:37 PM EST reply actions
Bill Hall... but he's also the most likely to get a lot of interest
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
laroche
because he’s the most likely to take minor league deal
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
Laroche's 2009 stats would look okay at 2B
I think he could still be an okay player – he was a beast in the minors and that was only a couple years ago
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 4, 2010 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
I like LaRoche
because, as PJ said, he’ll likely be dirt cheap. He’s probably not much better than replacement level, but there’s a strong chance our other options aren’t even that good (Descalso, Greene, Theriot?) as fill-ins if Freese isn’t healthy. He’s a good defender and I think a change of scene might do him some good.
We likely only need a 3B fill-in for a couple of months (with Carpenter likely to start in Memphis, and Freese probably not out for too long, hopefully); if it turns out to be any longer than that, we can look to make a trade. In the meantime we should get the cheapest fill-in we can find to compete with Craig in ST.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 5, 2010 9:17 AM EST up reply actions
what if MO is being sly and
the ML roster is set, but that doesnt include St invites? or MIL
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
what if mo' is being sly
and he’s grinding out a deal for robinson cano right now!
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
mo's just gonna say "screw it"
and sign Lee while he is at it
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
it's so early that who knows if it is really set or not
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
way OT, but the extension for arroyo would cause all the Walt lovers to STFU for good
he once again proved why he shouldn’t be running the Cardinals. sadly MO’s done almost nothing to prove the same thing
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
New-ish reader
Can somebody please justify Dan S’s assault on readability? Capitalizing letters is not that hard. Reading his posts is pretty hard.
it's not as hard as reading your face
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
are you talking about tom s?
yeah, he refuses to capitalize.
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2010 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
his prose would be too readable compared to mine if he were allowed to capitalize words
I’m going for consistency.
...says the guy who didn't capitalize or space out his username.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
if you didn't realize that he wasn't capitalizing on purpose,
then the jokes on you…
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
I think it's also partly a tribute to erstwile site editor, lboros, who used to do the same thing.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 5, 2010 9:18 AM EST up reply actions
I wish my dad was still alive
he would have gotten a huge kick out of a guy nick named “fat Elvis” playing for the Cards
Andy LaRoche is done
Never quite recovered his power after his shoulder problems, never was the same hitter as he had been in the minors.
Could Colby Rasmus hit a ball so hard that even he couldn't catch it?
i often i ask myself, who am i?
i still don’t have a good answer
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
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