My Cardinals Christmas Wish: One Third Basemen to Play Them All
(All the innings that is.)
I hope everyone had a good Christmas with family and friends.
I'm going to have to make time for catching up on the first three seasons of 30 Rock in the next few weeks. The first thing I've noticed is that Tracy Morgan has gained a solid 30 pounds in the last 3 years. Also, I'm uncertain why I didn't start watching that show until season 4 as it is hilarious.
Other distractions I got included:
- David Rakoff's Half Empty - I primarily read science fiction so this satirical take on modern events and moments in Rakoff's life is a departure for me. I skimmed the first few pages and I've already noticed that Rakoff's style of writing is far more dense than anything I've read previously. He also has an impressive vocabulary so expect me to whip out words like abrogate or palliated whenever I've the opportunity. For example, mysterui's mother is often used as palliative care for those who are not otherwise able to have consensual intercourse.
- Halo: Reach - I don't play many video games but I do enjoy me some Halo. It's strictly a co-op thing for me. I rarely enjoy games as isolation and prefer them as a socializing game.
- Tennis Racket - I'm not good (nor terrible) but it's hard for me to pass up on the opportunity to casually play a sport.
- St. Louis Blues gear - I find that I'm slowly getting into hockey again. I love watching baseball on TV but I find hockey to be the easier sport for me to enjoy in person. Shorter duration, less demanding of my attention, consistent activity on the ice and the inability for me to overthink decisions since I'm not as well versed in the intricacies of the relative choices.
So give me a list of your favorite Christmas presents this year. I'm also curious just how many people here received Cardinals paraphernalia (I did) since I would assume that is a favored present in these parts.
* * *
I'm a little perplexed by the lack of hype around Matt Carpenter. Much of the focus has been on David Freese and whether his two peg legs medically repaired ankles will hold up over the course of a full season. Freese emerged almost fully formed in the Cardinals system after coming over in the Jim Edmonds trade. Jumping straight to AAA from 2008, Freese hit .306/.361/.550 while knocking 26 balls out of Autozone Park. It was an impressive showing if an unsustainable one.
Matt Carpenter has a .300/.403/.444 line in roughly 900 PAs in the minors. He progressed to AA in just his second season in the minors. If anything, his offensive profile is much more refined than Freese. Carpenter's profile is, additionally, one that the Cardinals are desperate for compared to Freese. (I know that you want the best player on the field but when you have two comparable players it makes sense to balance your team's weak spots out with your selection.)
The point I'd make is that Matt Carpenter and David Freese are comparable players. Using Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projection system, Freese has a marginally better OPS but Carpenter's OBP lead makes them virtually identical offensive values. This should be at least marginally surprising given the skepticism that projection systems show toward players who are levels removed from the majors. It's a remark on Carpenter's impressive but unheralded performance to date.
Matt Carpenter will serve as a nice insurance policy on Freese. I was initially skeptical of both players in the minors. I remain skeptical of Freese because I find the power he showed to be flukish and that represents the lion's share of his value. Conversely, I'm a Matt Carpenter convert thought I'd tamp down on having high defensive expectations for him. Simply put, ZiPS gives credence to those of us who would like to be more excited than the average fan.
Now, whether Carpenter's approach can stand up against the "aggressive" doctrine of offense that is espoused at the majors . . . well, that's the cart before the horse.
Even if the Cardinals just plug ZiPS' David Freese in at third base, we've made steps in the right direction. The Cardinals' third basemen hit a measly .260/.317/.338 in 2010. Freese projects to be about a 5 run improvement relative to that line. He'd still be a slightly below average offensive player but nonetheless an improvement. I'm not quite ready to say Matt Carpenter is the better option for 2011 but my guess is he'll be the better option for 2012.
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as noted in yesterday's thread
Goold reports Freese is still progressing nicely
over under on when he’ll have to become half man half machine? i bet the All Star break
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
Late April.
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 26, 2010 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
Favorite Christmas presents
Well, I posted some last thread, but since I only mentioned baseball presents, I might as well expound upon that. Well, to rehash, I got Ken Burns’ doc in book format, Baseball trivia for the dumpster (not in the literal sense of course), Best American Sports Stories book, Cards T-shirt, Holliday jersey….
non-baseball, I got a Playstation3 (well – it was a family thing) which I will use mostly to play Madden and MLB ‘10 since I’m not a big “war” game guy (I have never gotten into Halo or CoD). I got a few movies as well with – Get Him to the Greek (I had the misfortune of watching this with my family unaware of what happened – awkward way to start Christmas morning – I didn’t put two and two together when I figured out it was Rated R and also about a rock star), Inception (still haven’t seen), and The A Team (ditto).
Rams are my other distraction. I really can’t get into hockey. Maybe it’s the simplicity, maybe something is wrong with me. I love going to games, but it’s rare and infrequent. I can’t sit down and watch it on TV either. It has to be the background to something else I’m doing. I find it boring somehow. (Ironically, I can sit and not be bored in a 1-0 baseball game, but the big hits and fast pace of hockey doesn’t do it for me)
Who wouldn’t love an infield of Pujols, Cox, Greene, and Carpenter in 2012? Pipe dream for sure if you ask me. Tony will have to be gone for sure.
And to finish off my novel, Merry Christmas!
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
SBN stole my first attempt at comment
so…I love all things pro sports that have St. Louis as their first name; but as for sports in general, it’s baseball #1, soccer second, football a distant third, followed closely by hockey. I can’t stand pro basketball, and only follow Mizzou college basketball, even though I never went there. As for hockey, I will (rarely) go to a college hockey game up the road, because my alma mater is often ranked in the top ten (not this year); and I will follow the Blues online, but haven’t watched a pro game in at least 3 years. Likewise, I follow the Rams, and Mizzou football, but that’s about it. My wife used to follow the Broncos, but not since Elway retired (like me, she liked him as a football player, but detests him as a human being).
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 26, 2010 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
well, you won the war
but I’d say Lee won the punter battle. Wanna re-visit your stats from the other day? Congrats on the win, I hope you beat Seattle and make a little noise in the post-season. That spread, hurry up offense you ran for awhile in the second half looked pretty good. We, on the other hand, looked terrible the entire game, save for the punt return and TD pass that was caught be a receiver it wasn’t even intended for.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
well we didn't play great and still beat you pretty comfortably
You guys have some work to do. Troy Smith is not good. At all. It’s amazing to me how bad he played. Our playcalling was atrocious too and our run game was non-existent. Again, I’m amazed at how bad the run game was.
Yeah Lee may be better. I don’t know what’s happened but Donnie’s doing worse than earlier. Maybe it’s fatigue, I don’t know but he is clearly not doing as good as the beginning of the season. Although, your punter had many more oppurtunities to show off how good he was. (For instance, when he punted it was mostly your own 10-30 while Jones actually got to punt at more reasonably distances)
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
by stlcardsfan4 on Dec 26, 2010 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
I was referring to the Ginn return
which was one of those opportunities where Jones punted from fairly deep in your territory.
I agree Troy Smith is not good. He got amazingly lucky the first time around with some short passes that our playmakers turned into big gains, giving Smith a higher yardage total. Alex Smith definitely gave us the best chance to win this year, when he was healthy but singletary didn’t like his “intangibles” and “leadership”.
I’d say one of the reasons your running game sucked today is that we are pretty good up the middle and it appeared we had game planned to eliminate the run.
Silver lining, we appear to be set up for a top 5 pick yet again.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
don't be too amazed about how bad the run game was
the 9ers front four owned our o-line all game. Because they are really really good.
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
amazingly as in the fact that getting to the line of scrimmage was a positive
i’d say we should have done better than that
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
by stlcardsfan4 on Dec 26, 2010 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
BTW: singletary was fired when they arrived back in SF
Our front seven is very solid. 2nd rated in yards per carry. Haven’t allowed 100 yard rusher in 20 games. Jackson has historically struggled against us. Link
That environment in Seattle is going to be a huge test for Bradford. Hope he handles it well.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
that makes me feel a little better
49ers are clearly going in the right direction with this move – can they do it in the draft now?
The Seahawks just got stomped by TB so they have no momentum and Rams have a ton so I feel pretty good about our chances.
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
by stlcardsfan4 on Dec 27, 2010 12:29 AM EST up reply actions
momentum is only as good as the next turnover
I think they have a good shot, but Seattle is a notoriously rough place to play.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Mr Freeses says "Cool Out" on all this Matt Carpenter talk.
And after being around a combined seven screaming kids for the last four days, the best present I did not receive was monday’s vasectomy.
Best presents, actually received division: Old school pajamas (matching top and bottom kind), a shit ton of books (Eggers last two and Taibbi’s most recent as my personal highlights), three new amazingly awesome Japanese knives (9" chef knife, 7" chef knife, 11" slicing knife), a mechanical chiming wall clock (circa 1940) which was not actually a present but I found it in my parents basement while searching for an erstwhile crock pot and they said they clearly did not want anymore, and a back scratcher.
I’m like a 78 year old man!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
I didn't get any presents
I’m Jewish. Didn’t get anything for Channukah either. Well my dad gave me a belt.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
So the two young guys here at VEB that are good at math are either jewish or asian.
Way to mix it up, Deities!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Dec 26, 2010 3:14 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Who's the other
Can’t think who you’re talking about
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
RIP Boog. FIRE TLR NOW
by VolsnCards5 on Dec 26, 2010 9:58 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Rui is asian
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 26, 2010 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
that explains a lot...
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
by stlcardsfan4 on Dec 26, 2010 3:41 AM EST up reply actions
Hope it was a leather belt, and not a punch,
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 26, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
That would be a gift for spants.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 26, 2010 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
what kind of tennis racket id you get?
Ive hardly played since high school
I should probably get back into it this spring, thanks for making me think of it
Since my parents know less about tennis than I do
it’s a nondescript racket from Sports Authority.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
i prefer Racquetball to Tennis
But it is easier to find free courts of Tennis
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 26, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
The best present i got was a day off . Oh and an old school cards jersey
from the Musial era with the skinny cardinals Grey and Red thick flannel , thanks wife.
Woke up to the cat hurling at 5:30am i guess he ate to much ham.
"Thats fucking Little League shit , if you're going to flip the bat , I'm going to flip your helmet next time " Steve Kline at Jimmy Rollins in his rookie year.
by riftraftredbird on Dec 26, 2010 9:04 AM EST reply actions
Drew, Ryan, and Rex the wonderhorse
the presents under my tree (relative to this board) are yet to be realized, but I must say, compared to recent years, things look pretty good.
What I always want beginning this time of year, or when the roster looks fairly set, whichever comes first, is three feelings:two very raw statistical (non-sabermetrical) [a bowling ball and a can of Simoniz] and one admittedly totally subjective [the thrill of seeing the son rip open his Rider Rider package]
I want Cardinal hitters to lead the league in fewest strikeouts.
I want Cardinal pitchers to lead the league in fewest walks allowed.
I don’t want anybody on the roster that I don’t like.
Cardinal teams generally do pretty well re the first two, with Duncanism helping out the second one. And so far so good on the third one. I feel ok with Westbrook for a full year and with the acquisition of Laird, And tho’ decidedly pro-Boog, I have nothing against Theriot, at least going in. I’ve always liked Berkman, I’m fine with rooting for Freese to stay healthy, and I’ve always had a place in my heart for Skip.
The line-up looks good.
The only three dark horizons I can think of involve Franklin, Rasmus and LaRussa, but those are not emotionally based. I LIKE all three but I just think we need a better closer, that we would have better balance with McCutchen in CF rather than Colby, and Tony is a hapless tinkerer.
the Drew reference
what I meant to say is that I suffer the LOSS of players that I like better than I endure the presence of any that I don’t feel good about.
I was so high on J.D (the way I used to be on Colby) that it was a blow when he had to go, tho’ I concede it was one of the best deals made by Walt.
And the absence of any roster clunker for ME (so far) balms the heart-ache of no longing seeing B Ryan pick ’em going forward.
Freese power outage
I would think the Freese’s ankle injuries are sapping his power. While that may be an excuse, unless that issue repairs itself he’ll be an average 3b with no power and it would logically argue for taking a look at Carpenter unless they give Beltre a big one year offer.
Just win
the only way adriaaaaaaaaan
gets an offer from jmo is if they recast Rocky
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
My favorite (and only) gift this year was a few private lessons with one of the top golf instructors in the US
He’d better be as good as he claims, b/c I suck horrendously. The only thing I can do is drive, but that’s only b/c I get to swing the club like a baseball bat. The ball rarely, if ever, goes straight. :/
Testicle-exploding shit storms, to date: T.E.S.S. '08, T.E.S.S. '09, T.E.S.S. '10
by dan on Dec 26, 2010 10:26 AM EST via mobile reply actions
i got some cardinals stuff
but my favorite gift was josh hamilton’s book ‘beyond belief’. i also got an autobiography of daniel schorr (a famous journalist), and i think that should be an interesting read since journalism is what i want to get into later on in life.
Fire John Mozeliak & Tony LaRussa! (Good luck in Seattle, Boog!)
You can still listen to episodes of Weekend Edition's Week In Review With Daniel Schorr on npr.org
There are a host of tributes and farewells there also.
Boog woulda.
by The Continental on Dec 26, 2010 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Is everything back to normal yet???
I’m sick of my a-hole relatives looking askance at routine laptop usage.
Sign Carl Pavano!!!
Long Live Allen Craig
Who has a better Projection than Freeze and is also 2 years younger. Carpenter isn’t that young also, 25. I am skeptical of Freese for the same reason. Lack of power and low iso. He has shown the abilty to hit to both sides of the diamond but doesn’t have the power I am hoping for.
Spring Training
This season I would love to go to Spring Training and watch Carpenter, Craig, and Freeze take grounders and hit. It would be great to get a bit of a side-by-side-by-side comparison.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Dec 26, 2010 10:59 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
A side-by-side will shed more light on this particular competition than stats.
I don’t understand the Carpenter apathy either. Okay, there is a faction out there that sees power numbers as the-all-end-all, and he’s unlikely to hit for the isolated power of Craig or even Freese. Me, I’m more of an OBP guy, and his ability to hit for average and take a walk looks awfully good to me. I just hope he gets a chance in ST to show what he can do.
StanTheManFan
Contributes any way he can.
He's normally a nuclear physicist
Except when writing for this list.
by StanTheManFan on Dec 26, 2010 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
i also just started watching 30 rock from the beginning
just finished season 1 last night
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
i've been watching the new ones as the come, and binging on season 1 and 2 here and there
and i love it so much. Yet to dip into 3 though.
by infallibleopiniongenerator on Dec 26, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
i really need to get into that show
I watched the first episode and just didn’t grab me so I stopped watching it
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 26, 2010 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
i watched all three seasons this week.
it may be the best show ever imo, a spot that was reserved for the sopranos
it's not the best show ever
but it’s definitely worth watching
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 26, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
You haven't seen THE WIRE, have you?
Testicle-exploding shit storms, to date: T.E.S.S. '08, T.E.S.S. '09, T.E.S.S. '10
it's really good
turn it up to '11
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 27, 2010 2:00 AM EST up reply actions
I can't wait till people get bored of their Health related Christmas presents
I need a new elliptical machine and hope people give up on theirs by Feb
I got the only thing I asked for
the shiny new restoration of Metropolis.
I also got something I didn’t ask for- a damned cold. Bah.
Boog woulda.
by The Continental on Dec 26, 2010 12:25 PM EST reply actions
Released in November, I believe.
Since I feel lousy, I’ll probably curl up on the couch and watch it today.
Boog woulda.
by The Continental on Dec 26, 2010 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
My favorite Christmas present
wasn’t something I got but something I gave.
My-son-the-percussion-major, alongside the usual iTunes cards and Xbox games, asked for “CDs of Renaissance masses”. Now I personally have no particular fondness for ecclesiastical music, even if it’s 500 years old; but it’s incredibly heartening to find he’s not only learning something in college, he’s valuing it. It’s like getting all his tuition back.
The Mang does more than Milton can
To justify God's ways to man.
As I live in Colorado
I tend to limit my Cardinals paraphernalia to baseball caps. I do own a couple of t-shirts with Pujols’ name and number, but I don’t have many occasions to wear them here. Since I already have 6 or 7 Cardinal caps, and I tend to wear them out before going on to another one, I’m set for awhile; therefore, nothing new on the Cardinal front. Also, being in my 50’s, there’s not much that I want that I don’t already have, so my gifts from wife and kids tend to be clothing and the like, often something I’ve already picked out and told my wife about (and rarely, something I’ve already purchased and had her set aside). This year, my fave gift is a nose hair trimmer that came with a new dopp kit; at my age, I’m easily amused.
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 26, 2010 1:45 PM EST reply actions
Best gift of the year...
Imo’s gift cards…and plenty of them.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 26, 2010 2:10 PM EST reply actions
oh and cash...
which will almost assuredly be spent on Imo’s, Budweiser, or Cardinals stuff.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 26, 2010 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
gift list
included a car and a sectional this year. Not the typical Christmas in the least. Oh, and the parents got me a new skinning knife and climbing stand.
Az, its sad that hockey is becoming more enjoyable to watch for you, and to some extent for me for the same reasons. It is at times agonizing to watch baseball and second guess, whereas I don’t know enough about hockey to second guess. I guess ignorance truly is bliss.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
OT:
In baseball news, which sometimes seems to get reported here, Brandon Webb is apparently still deciding between the Rangers and this “mystery” NL Central Division team, according to Stark. But Stark also says that the Cubs (and Natinals) are out of the running, and the Brewers and Reds seem unlikely destinations (according to Rotoworld), while the irate Pirates haven’t spoken to him in months. This leaves the ’Stros, and some team whose misguided GM has pulled this kind of thing in the past, as a sop to the rabid ( but somewhat less enlightened) fanbase.
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 26, 2010 2:43 PM EST reply actions
what're we gonna do if he pans out?
trade him?
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
yeah
throw away $24MM. that sounds like a solid idea
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
kyle lohse will have every opportunity to be in the starting rotation through the end of 2012
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
i don't take kindly to kyle lohse jokes, sir
you just wait until he puts up a 4 WAR year in 2011
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
heh
every time you get defensive about lohse, I’m going to make a boog/theriot post
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
its not like signing him for 41 mil was a solid idea in the first place.
not that I advocate simply throwing away 24 mil, but as time goes on there will be a team more willing to take on half of it if he can stay off the DL for a couple month stretch. And he’s going to be very willing to waive the NTC if he’s sitting in the pen being all frustraded and pissy.
meh, oh well, i can dream.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 26, 2010 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
he's not going to be sitting in the bullpen
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
i know.
he’ll be on the DL.
no big deal.
Just a terrible move. it happens
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 26, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
he may be on the DL
but him spending 3 of 4 years on the DL is certainly not something that can be predicted. it’s not like he’s having elbow or shoulder problems
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
yeah, but it would be easier to predict that
Kyle Lohse was not a $41 million dollar pitcher after putting together a stretch of 8 mostly unimpressive seasons
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 26, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
if a bit above average is unimpressive
then you’re still wrong. that would have made him, conservatively, worth about $30-35MM over 4 years. stop acting like it’s some albatross
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
math time
assuming a .5 WAR decline every year since ‘08 and assuming $4.5MM per win the first two years and $5MM per win the second 2 years, that’s $34.65MM
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
His base isn't a 3.1 WAR player
That’s was his best season since 2003. A weighted average of his three previous seasons is 2.5. After regression to the mean and, aging and injury risk – both particularly harsh for pitchers – he would have a below 2 WAR projection for 2008. If you do the same thing with a 1.8 WAR projection for 2008, the contract comes out about twice his actual projected value.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 26, 2010 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
he put up 3.1 WAR in 2008
why are we projecting 2008? was it luck influenced or something
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 26, 2010 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
looks like a typo
meant 2009. . . i think
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
he said it twice
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2010 12:03 AM EST up reply actions
i think he's saying
that based on his seasons prior to 2008, he would’ve been projected for below 2 WAR and if we used that projection instead of his actual numbers from 2008 and regressed from there, his projection for the next 4 years would suck, but that’s kind of a stupid way to analyze the contract
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2010 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
That's not what I'm saying
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2010 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
I meant 2009
From what I gathered from your gathered, you said you started Lohse off as a 3.1 player (his 2008 number) in 2009, is that right?
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2010 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
no
i started lohse off as a 3.1 player in ’08 and gave him the following
’09: 2.6 WAR at $4.5MM per win
’10: 2.1 WAR at $4.5MM per win
’11: 1.6 WAR at $5MM per win
’12: 1.1 WAR at $5MM per win
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2010 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
i'd still say that paying a guy expected to perform
at a $34 million level is stupid considering how pitchers age (not well) and huge risk that they just lose it
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
by stlcardsfan4 on Dec 27, 2010 12:33 AM EST up reply actions
.5 WAR per year decline accounts for injury risk
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2010 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
But not on the original projection
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2010 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
also
this sentence:
paying a guy expected to perform at a $34 million level is stupid
doesn’t make any sense to me
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2010 12:35 AM EST up reply actions
using your method
I came up with a total price of $34.65 million…
I think if your estimated surplus value is -$6.35 million, then it’s not a really smart idea to sign that contract
DONNIE FUCKING JONES FOR PRO BOWL!
by stlcardsfan4 on Dec 27, 2010 12:43 AM EST up reply actions
did you read my point?
being that $1.5MM higher AAV than he’s worth is a slight overpay and not a “terrible contract”?
this is not me arguing that this is a fantastic deal. this is me railing against the massive, brendan ryan-esque overreaction to a slightly below average contract which hasn’t panned out for reasons that could not have been predicted
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2010 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
you just had to go and lump boog back into this
you know, money wise, he’d be playing this year at less than that $1.5mm above value you keep quoting.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
okay
from a purely on-field perspective it was a bad trade. and like the lohse contract it’s not nearly as bad as your average VEBer makes it out to be.
we traded a mediocre SS and replaced him with a slightly worse, but still mediocre SS. we paid a player who projects to be slightly below average over 4 years like a player who is average over 4 years. the situations are analogous
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2010 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
Only you think it's slightly below average
The rest of us think it’s terrible.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2010 1:01 AM EST up reply actions
and i've provided arguments
to support the claim that it’s slightly below average.
and no, i’m not the only person who has provided reasoned arguments for why it’s not that bad of a deal. azruavatar comes to mind. i guess these people are less inclined to repeatedly argue the point because they respect themselves more than i do or something, though
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
Oh, ok
Well I think 2.6 WAR is far too high of a projection still. That’s basically his weighted average of his previous three years – and that doesn’t take into account regression, injury risk, and aging (the latter two are huge for pitchers).
I think a little below 2 WAR is a fair projection for 2009, and that + the .5 WAR decline per year and dollar values you gave, yield around 22 million in value.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2010 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
that's not how it works
you don’t take a 2.5 true talent player coming off a 3.1 year which does not appear to be luck influenced and project him for 1.8 WAR
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2010 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
That's exactly how it works
The weighted average of Lohse’s past three seasons prior to the extension was 2.5 WAR. What that number represents is how well we think Lohse has performed the last three years – you can’t just use 2008 data because that’s too small of a sample size. You have to use multiple seasons to gauge performance, weighing the most recent seasons higher.
After you’ve done that, then you have to account for aging from his 2006-2008 self to his 2009 self, as well as injury risk (Lohse was fully healthy from 2006-2008), and regression to the mean (any player who has performed at an above average rate for a period of time likely got lucky to some degree – how much is based off of his peripherals, but even K and BB rates can be lucky).
Honestly, you have to trust me on pitcher projections. Those are my thing.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2010 12:43 AM EST up reply actions
if you're taking a _weighted_ average
of his ‘06-’08 seasons and coming up with 2.5 WAR, you’re not weighting ’08 very much more than 2006. his straight average is 2.4 WAR. a straight average, and even a weighted average also completely ignore any change in approach by lohse. he dramatically increased his GB%, and walked fewer batters, a result of better control and throwing his FB more. all of which is, sorry, probably attributable to dave duncan.
you’re gonna have to convince me that he didn’t actually pich at a 3 WAR level in 2008 before i’m going to accept the premise that his ‘08 baseline should be a normal weighted average of ’08-’06. and even if i accept that premise, i’m not going to make the leap that he should have been projected for 1.8 WAR in ’09
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2010 12:53 AM EST up reply actions
By weighted average I mean 5-4-3
Which are the standard weights in a projection – the ones used in Marcels. If you change it to 10-4-3, you get, 2.7, which isn’t that big of a difference and is likely drastically overweighting 2008.
His GB% rose exactly 4% from his career average in 2008, which is within the realm of random variation. Besides, we are accounting for that with the weights. You could argue that it should be weighed higher than usual due to the Duncan effect, and you might be right, but that would only raise the 2008 weight to 6 or 7, and his projection would mostly be unchanged.
I agree that Lohse pitched at a 3 WAR level in 2008. That’s not the area of disagreement. However, he pitched worse than that in 2006 and 2007, implying that 2008 was above his true talent level for his 2008 self – do you understand that?
Once you’ve established his true talent level for 2008, which is done through weighting past seasons (to include more data and to account for luck) and regression to the mean (to account for luck), then you project how he’ll do in 2009 – which involves calculating injury risk and aging.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2010 1:20 AM EST up reply actions
if you give '08 a .7 coefficient
that makes his true talent 2.8 in ’08
that’s 2.3*4.5+1.8*4.5+1.3*5+.8*5 = $28.95MM
which is more like a $3MM AAV overpay. that’s 0.6 WAR average for the 4 years. it’s not a good contract, but it’s not like it was bound to cripple the team from the start. if he performed to that projection it would be a slightly below average deal.
i think the fact that he got hit in the arm with a pitch is coloring the outcome of the mid-contract evaluation
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
I don't understand what .7 means
If you give his 2008 a weight of 7, 2007 a weight of 4 and 2006 and a weight of 3, that gives a weighted WAR of 2.6:
(3.1*7+2.5*4+1.6*3)/14
Which I would regress/age/injury risk to about 1.9 WAR. And 7 is the absolute highest weight I would give 2008, that assumes that he changed his style drastically under Duncan, which I don’t really think was the case.
At any rate, were quibbling over a couple of million here. If you value his contract at 25 million, which I think is fair – that’s higher than I had him at earlier this thread, 41 million is a pretty significant overpay in my book.
The fact that he’s pitched like shit since the extension certainly might color people’s perceptions of him, but it doesn’t change the stats.
I’m not making up proper projection procedure on a case by case basis.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2010 2:48 AM EST up reply actions
i didn't use the word albatross...
I said a terrible deal. Its not a Barry Zito albatross contract, but its still terrible. It was then, and its worse now.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 26, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
i don't think
an AAV $1.5MM higher than market average is “terrible”
it seems like a very slight overpay
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
with a no trade clause.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
i think the length is really the biggest problem
it’s not a typical pitcher injury, but pitchers are pitchers and they tend to get hurt. the money seems pretty close to me, though
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
I agree
if the AAV was the same over three years it wouldn’t be a big deal. It was/is just frustrating to see the Cardinals be on the tail end of the 4/40 contacts to slightly above average-ish pitchers era.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
and when exactly did ballclubs start using WAR to determine market value?
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 26, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
lol, you misunderstand
the average dollar paid to a player was $4.5MM per WAR. this year it was $5MM. the front office may not look at the player’s WAR to determine what they sould pay him, but there’s a clear trend and decent correlation
basically, the market made the determination. all i’m doing is using the WAR adaptation. you could probably use whatever you want. WAR is easy, so that’s what i used
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
However,
Players who have been “a little above average” and are 31, generally start to suck real quick. MGL, with his own intracate projections, placed the deal at a surplus value of half of the contract:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/sabermetric_moves_of_the_2009_pre_season/#3
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 26, 2010 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
that 1.5 WAR appears to be completely pulled out of his ass
as you said, his 3 previous season average was 2.5 WAR.
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2010 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
also, look at the next damn post
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/sabermetric_moves_of_the_2009_pre_season/#4
kinda roughly something like what i was saying
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2010 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
2.5 WAR + regression + injury risk + aging
Gives you pretty close to 1.5 WAR, I think it’s a bit low, but that’s just a WAG. Besides, MGL has less of a decline (.3 per year), than I would (.5 per year).
Tango’s comment was a guess, whereas MGL is basing his projections off of his complex projection system. That’s not exactly a resounding retort.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2010 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
.5 WAR per year encapsulates all that
if players tended to lose a full win per year, everyone would be out of baseball by 35. most of them by 32, probably
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2010 12:32 AM EST up reply actions
The .5 WAR per year encapsulates the aging and injury risk from the original projection
The original projection still needs to include aging and injury risk from his previous seasons.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2010 12:35 AM EST up reply actions
but why are we trashing the 2008 data
and projecting based on his ‘06-’07 data. you’re just looking for a way to poorly evaluate him in that situation
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2010 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
No I'm not
We’re not trashing the 2008 data, we’re weighing it the highest! But you can’t just throw out the 2006 and 2007 data (nor the 2005 and 2004 data, but those are so far away as to be meaningless). You have to weigh those seasons because they are also a record of his most recent performance. Would you project Ryan Ludwick as a 6 WAR player for 2009? Of course not, because the fact that he was a worse player previous implies that he didn’t play as good as his numbers were in 2008. It’s the same thing with Lohse.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2010 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
that's kind of simlar
except that ludwick’s .342 BABIP and 20% HR/FB kind of explain away how he was playing over his head. lohse has no such data indicating he was lucky. his peripherals actually support the claim that he was just plain a 3 WAR pitcher in 2008
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2010 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
His FIP WAR was 3.1
That does not mean he was a 3.1 WAR player in 2008 it means he performed like a 3.1 player in 2008. Because performance is only a sample of true talent level (what his performance would be like if he had pitched an infinite amount of innings), you have to supplement it with other data to guess at what his true talent level was in 2008. That data is in the form of his previous years performance and the mean of his population of pitchers.
Here is link about what I am talking about:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-treatise-on-true-talent/
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2010 1:23 AM EST up reply actions
boog wouldve
been happy sitting in the bullpen. Maybe that would have kept him on team, being so far away from LaRussa.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
careful
pitching killed floppy’s burgeoning career as a 3rd baseman
he was never the same after that
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
but can you imagine how awesome
the boog and motte show would be?
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Now Rotoworld is claiming that
the Reds have been identified as the “mystery” team.
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 26, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
Hope everyone is recovering from too much whatever,
too much food/family/snow/etc.
My stocking was filled with a couple of books (a bio of Buzz Aldrin and a “bio” of the Mars rovers), a couple of things I’m not sure I’ll use, and Star Trek (calendar, movie). I was hoping for the Cards calendar but no go. Guess I’ll have to order it myself now. I did hit home runs with my family, Star Wars movies for the grandson, diploma frame for his mom, and an iHome and Frank Sinatra bio for daughter #2.
Let’s all hope that Cards fans receive a non-crippling AP contract as a late Christmas, early Valentine’s Day present!
rangers signed webb
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/rangers-reach-agreement-with-webb.html
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
go play with your new car or something
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
busy dismantling the christmas tree
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Gah...
In addition to his 2006 Cy Young nod, he also finished second in both 2007 and 2008.
That seems like a logn time ago though, as Webb has thrown four innings since. Webb has spent a total of 372 days on the disabled list in his recovery from shoulder surgery in 2009.
Wonder if he got his $8-10 million.
Brendan Ryan is no longer a St. Louis Cardinal.
Fortunately, Aaron Miles isn't either.
we have our own version of webb (the injured starter).
a man named lohse.
Fire John Mozeliak & Tony LaRussa! (Good luck in Seattle, Boog!)
Except that ours was never half as good,
And is fifty times more likely to be better going forward.
Enter vivaelpujols
My great wit allows me to interject that by assuming the partakers of this conversation are inbedded and perhaps romantically entangled, rather than indeed, the truthful observation that they are both platonic and standing upright. Great comedy may be produced!! -Aranathor
by hazel on Dec 27, 2010 5:47 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I got a Moscow Mule Gift Basket.
Which consisted of 4 copper mugs of a much cooler design than anything I can find on line.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
I got somewhting that hasn't happened in my 41 years on this Earth, a white Christmas in Alabama
I know it’s not a huge deal up St.L way but it’s the first time it’s happened here since 1967. It was great for my kiddo and generally an overrated pain in the ass for me.
As for Cards gear, I got a set of home and away jersey Tervis tumblers to add to my collection, a road gray ThermaBase dugout pullover, and a 1946 M&N Musial jersey.
Hope that the rest of the VEB crew had a great one…is it Spring yet?
My wife got me a Cardinals snuggie for Christmas.
Well, other stuff too.
The thing is, we actually were at the game where they gave them away for free. We went with my parents and our two year old. They were out of them by the time we got to our gate, which was ridiculous because we made a point to try to get there early, but since it was with my parents things didn’t exactly go as planned. The folks working the gate told us to try another gate, they still have some down there. Well, I was skeptical, but off we went. We finally got there and asked of they could give us some. No, they said, we’d have to actually exit and get in line and re-enter in this gate to do that. And by this point they’d be gone by the time we got back in. Phooey!
I had the last laugh, though.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
New glasses!!!
It may seem like a small thing, especially since I generally wear contacts, but I didn’t realize just how bad my old glasses had gotten.
Boog would have made that play.
good deal
maybe you can review that matt pagnozzi video again =p
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2010 1:06 AM EST up reply actions 4 recs
I got a nice portable microphone, should be pretty versatile
new guitar pickup that sounds amazing, and some nice oil based markers that I can paint on anything. also dvds, cds, books, snacks, and a cool power drill set. excellent christmas, I now have my bike hanging from the wall.
turn it up to '11
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 27, 2010 2:04 AM EST reply actions
question for the robot
do you think the Cardinals would actually consider using Carpenter as insurance for Freese? or would they just get another Pedro Feliz
turn it up to '11
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 27, 2010 2:05 AM EST reply actions
Depends on when the need arises
Early in the year and I think they’d look outside the org or use Tyler Greene as a stop gap. They’ll want to see how Carpenter fares at Memphis if I’m reading the tea leaves right.
Silly humans, this world is for robots.
yeah
Greene would be the guy probably
turn it up to '11
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 27, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

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