Assessing the Boog's Value, Future
by JWO on Dec 1, 2010 3:59 PM EST
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With the acquisition of Ryan Theriot, it appears that part one of the Mozeliak / LaRussa master plan for jettisoning Brendan Ryan is complete. Personally, I think the Cardinals would be foolish to trade Boog. But unless I miss my guess, Ryan is likely to be gone within the week. This got me thinking about two general questions.
1) What is Brendan Ryan worth?
2) What might the Cardinals get in return for Boog?
STEP ONE - VALUE
A quick scan of such resources as Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference yields Ryan's key sabermetric stats. For purposes of this discussion, I'm going to limit myself to WAR, OPS+, and UZR.
WAR:
2010 - 0.9
2009 - 3.4
2008 - 0.3
2007 - 1.6
TOTAL - 6.2
Ryan has averaged about 1.5 WAR per season. Yes, this has clearly been assisted by his stellar defensive abilities. But the numbers by themselves are respectable. Keep in mind that his first two years were in a part-time status. Projecting forward, I think we can assume Ryan is good for somewhere between 1-2 WAR annually, at least for the next five years or so (assuming he plays somewhere regularly).
OPS+
2010 - 57
2009 - 97
2008 - 59
2007 - 95
AVERAGE - 77
Ok, here's the part of Ryan's game that sucks. Lets just roll with it. A seventy-seven OPS is pretty darn poor. But I think its also worth pointing out that Ryan's range is fairly broad. In two of his four seasons, Ryan managed to post a nearly acceptable 100 OPS. This suggests he has the capability to be serviceable as a hitter. Barely.
UZR
2010 - 11.5
2009 - 7.2
2008 - 3.8
2007 - 0.6
TOTAL - 23.1
I could just as easily have used some other sabermetric stat like his Total Zone rating, but I figured UZR was the prettiest, because it showed the best possible direction. Brendan Ryan's fielding is electric. No one is denying this. He was deserving of a Gold Glove this year. He could still finish his career with five of those things. I also checked his TZ rating verses other shortstops. Ryan is elite level. The people ahead of him are noticeably older, with the exception of Tulowitski (who just got the insane contract, btw).
SHOW ME THE MONEY
Finally, you can't talk about value until you mention the money. Ryan is entering the first of three arbitration years. That means for the next three years, he is (theoretically) very affordable. What is he poised to make the next three years? Well, I'm no expert on arbitration values, but I used JJ Hardy from the Twins as a comp. Hardy has managed 9.9 WAR over six seasons. His arbitration years, he received $2.6M, $4.6M, and $5.1M. My guess is Ryan comes in south of that figure, meaning he costs the Cardinals (or some other team) about $8-10M over the next three years.
STEP TWO - TRADES
So with all of this in mind, I now ask the fuzzier question of what Mozeliak and company should ask for in return for Boog. I'm assuming a fair-value trade here, not one where the Cardinals take sixty cents on the dollar or something nonsensical. To that end, I'd like to propose a few potential trade possibilities that make a small glimmer of sense. I tried to take needs of both teams into consideration with these ideas. I also tried to look for matches between the Cardinals and high-octane offense teams (as they can absorb Ryan's lack of plate prowess). Feel free to mock, argue, scold, or insult me below.
Brendan Ryan for Joel Zumaya (RP, Tigers)
I've been reading about Zumaya being non-tendered, but likely to return to Detroit. But I think there's a potential good match here. Zumaya is still in the arbitration years of his service time, albeit further along. He's also had some minor injury issues and inconsistencies. But he also has very high upside. He has a terrifying fastball and other skillsets that would make him attractive. Furthermore, I think he'd do very well under Duncan's instruction and with a talented catcher like Yadi behind the plate. In return, the Tigers get a vastly superior SS to Peralta, at least in terms of defense. And Detroit's offense is already in the top third of the league, likely to improve with the acquisition of Victor Martinez.
Brendan Ryan for Drake Britton (SP, Red Sox)
I know, I know. You're asking who this guy is. He's one of the Red Sox's better prospects in the minors. And he projects to have very high upside. I linked his profile here, for those curious. I was tempted to list Casey Kelly, the Sox top prospect, but I don't think they'd give up that high a prize for Ryan. Then again, what do I know. I DO know that the Red Sox have an aging Scutaro at SS (35 years old). I also wondered whether I should suggest Jed Lowrie, who would be a nice infield improvement. Just remember, I'm trying to identify realistic matches that offer fair value to both sides.
Brendan Ryan for Joba Chamberlain (RP, Yankees)
Joba has been a disappointment for the Yankees, but it may be that a change in environment would do wonders for his confidence and play. The Cardinals would be taking something of a gamble, but they could potentially have a solid starter or reliever if they made this move. The Yankees in return would have a low-cost defensive upgrade. Yes, they may sign Jeter. But the Yankees are the type of team that would love to drop a talented defender into the game in the later innings (presumably when they are preserving their leads). Chamberlain and Ryan would also have the benefit of effectively being a salary push.
Anyway, I've blathered on long enough. This is where you tell me I'm full of it. And one final note - I do NOT think the Cardinals should trade Ryan. His upside is just too high for my taste, and I feel as if they would be trading low. But if the clubhouse chemistry needs to be tinkered with, then so be it.
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I'm gonna miss Ryan.
I’ d like to give him another shot. Oh Well!
I want a 2nd baseman for him.
Baseball is only a game. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole.
Good Post
I had my own analysis comparing Boog and Theriot’s WAR, but your post is better, so I’ll edit down and post in comments.
I have to be honest. It’s probably my hatred of all things LaRussa right now, but the Theriot deal kind of ticks me off. Theriot was decent in 07 and 08, but has a net of 0.2 WAR over the last two years (minus .8 WAR last season) and he’s the answer? I don’t think so. It’s reminiscent of bringing Aaron Miles and Pedro Feliz on last year and it’s infuriating.
Heck, Skip Schumaker had 1.5 WAR last year and that was despite a minus 1.0 defensive WAR.
Brendan Ryan had a bad year last year offensively and below par year defensively and still has had 4.3 WAR over the last two years.
Ozzie Smith in his first two years of playing full time had a grand total of 2.9 WAR. I’m not saying that Brendan Ryan is Ozzie Smith, but WAR thinks he’s just as good and maybe better defensively in his first two years as a starter.
I’d rather take a guy who is outstanding at one part of the game and try to raise the other part of his game to an acceptable level than start with a guy who frankly is AAAA and have him take at bats from players who might develop into something worthwhile. Ryan has more value now and more potential upside. Theriot just isn’t very good and is 31.
Ryan exhibits all of the qualities that LaRussa supposedly respects. No one works harder and no one tries harder. But if he’s not the guy, then bring up Tyler Greene and see if he can do better. We don’t need anymore Aaron Miles clones.
Anyway, I know that WAR is not the end all and be all of baseball analysis, but it does mean something.
It has already been pointed out that Theriot has stolen 63 bases and been caught 32 times over the last three years. That’s the last guy we need batting in front of Pujols and Holiday.
If Theriot were brought in to Platoon with Skip that would make sense, but apparently they have already announced that they are looking to trade Ryan because LaRussa believes he’s inconsistent. So apparently consistently not very good at anything is better than sometimes brilliant defensively and sometimes not very good with a bat.
This is a recipe for getting pwned by the Reds.
Hmmmm....
…Zumaya and Joba the Hut scare me – Zumaya because he gets injured too easily, and Joba because I personally think he is way over-rated. I think I would prefer the Britton/Kelly/Lowrie situation, although we may have to sweeten the deal. They are looking for an OF; if they don’t get Werth or Crawford we cud tempt them with Jay, and a package of Jay/Boog/throw-in might get us Lowrie and Britton, or some such cowbination. it is worth exploring, at any rate. But yeah, I’d rather have Boog play for us, but its starting to feel moore and moore tenuous…
My intense hatred of JASON MARQUIS keeps me warm and toasty at night. Believe!
:=8O
Theriot could play 2nd
if something else doesn’t come our way and we could keep Boog at SS. I’d rather do that, or trade Theriot for another 2nd baseman.
Baseball is only a game. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole.
I think we already took the Anthony Reyes route on this one.....
You know. The plan where we take a player with value, limit his ability to succeed, say miserable things about his performance and future, scream to anyone who will listen that he plays no part in our future plans, and trade him for someone who will never sniff the 40 man roster.
I don’t think any of the trade ideas offered up above are truly viable. All of the players you mentioned have upside. The Cardinals have not had interest in trading for anyone with upside in many years; that may be a good thing because if we traded for someone with upside, we certainly would not play them. Players with upside make mental errors sometimes-we do not tolerate mental errors. Old players with little skill, ability, or upside hardly ever make mental errors because their slow reaction times allow them more time to think.
Sell low?
After driving down the price yourself?
There’s some truth to that, but remember that Reyes was hiding two injuries, so there was some substance to his degradation.
I'd love to work with Brendan Ryan on his hitting
He officially has nothing to lose and, with his plus to plus plus glove, a lot to gain.
Brendan, call me.
Seriously.
Yeah, I don't think the Sox will give up Casey Kelly for Boog either...
not in A MILLION years.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 1, 2010 5:32 PM EST reply actions
Are these trades straight up?
Or just who we should go for with boog as part if the package? Cause I think we get laughed off the phone if we call with any if these offers.
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
by VolsnCards5 on Dec 1, 2010 7:05 PM EST via mobile reply actions
yes -- I would do any of these trades
which means they are totally ridiculous
Just win
by The Duke on Dec 1, 2010 7:07 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, I was serious
I didn’t invest huge amounts of brain matter finding the perfect matches. That job belongs to a guy making a lot more money than me. But I don’t think these suggestions are “ridiculous”. Zumaya and Chamberlain both have had issues that make them semi-flawed players. Both the Tigers and Yankees could use improved defense. The Yanks in particular would hugely benefit from someone who can compensate for A-Rod’s declining range.
But rather than poke holes, why don’t you try something productive and suggest and alternative. What do you consider a fair trade for Ryan?
by JWO on Dec 1, 2010 7:39 PM EST up reply actions
FWIW
The yankees are the first team I thought of as a fit. Even though (presumably) they have GG Captain there, someone who actually deserves a GG would probably get some PT, especially with the questionable roles of Jeter and ARod in the next couple years. I have my doubts that Brendan would net Joba, but it’s prolly not crazy.
i don't know that zumaya is getting non-tendered, but the rumors are out there. i can't see that's implausible.
if he’s at risk of non-tendering, a boog trade isn’t crazy.
"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."
Except Zumaya has a problem keeping his arm attached to his body.
Brendan Ryan is still a St. Louis Cardinal.
Aaron Miles is not.
I didn't say it was a good trade, just not implausible
"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."
by tom s. on Dec 2, 2010 1:05 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Wait a minute...
If Theriot costs Blake Hawksworth, and Theriot is roughly similar in value to Ryan – or even a step down from Ryan – how does Ryan bring any of the guys you listed? Brendan Ryan for Blake Hawksworth is a lot closer to reality…
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
Ryan works best for
Teams with excess amounts of hitting, and weak defense, particularly in the middle infield. As stated in my original post, Ryan has managed about 1.5 WAR a season. I think its reasonable to think he will do so for as long as his defense remains elite. Ryan is worth a LOT more than Hawksworth.
by JWO on Dec 1, 2010 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
The comp is Adam Everett...
he was never traded after he became established, but on the FA market he was never able to garner more than a one year deal for a couple million.
If a player falls below a certain floor offensively, teams will not part with anything of value for that player regardless of defense. I think that floor is around 280 woba and Ryan’s true talent level is perilously close to that line.
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
Uhm, no
Everett has generated 0.2 WAR over the past four years. Ryan’s WAR is almost entirely predicated on his defense. Given his age, that’s not going away for several years.
I think your comp is invalid.
Young Everett and Boog are essentially the same player - elite glove, no hit...
After Everett’s age 29 season he was non-tendered and received only one-year contracts for the rest of his career. If that’s what the market thought of Adam Everett, I can’t believe anyone would send value to the Cardinals for Brendan Ryan.
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
That's clever
You show a graph that makes your point (the no hit part), and then you ignore broader stats that might show this comp is meaningless.
I mean, I’m not going to compare Ryan to Ozzie Smith, but the Wizard had wOBAs of .296, .244, .288, and .261 in his first four years (same age range as Ryan too). So sorry, not impressed yet.
Furthermore
Your use of that chart is unreasonably deceptive. The wOBA for every player in MLB is between about 200 percentage points. For example, this year, the highest wOBA was Josh Hamilton at .447. The lowest was Cesar Izturis at .248 (and he was an outlier). But your chart makes it look like these two are neck and neck. I don’t mean to be snooty, but your chart is very misleading.
Dude...
You can read the x and y axis, right? How can the chart be misleading you? Ryan and Everett are similar hitters and similar fielders. How are they dissimilar?
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
Its misleading because
It makes it look like they have similar numbers, when they do NOT.
Here’s the difference between their wOBAs, year to year:
Age 24 = 87 points
Age 25 = 31 points
Age 26 = 11 points
Age 27 = 33 points
That means, on average, they were over forty points apart over that four year period. It would be likely comparing the offense of Troy Tulowitzki (.408 wOBA) to Ricky Weeks (.368 wOBA).
The chart is misleading at best.
fwiw that is a stock chart from fangraphs
nothing really deceptive about it. The ryan/everett comparison is interesting, except that Ryan has much higher potential.
Sorry to run over a dead horse
But it bugs me when people abuse stats for their own purpose. Guayzimi uses his chart to argue that Boog is “no hit” like Adam Everett. Well, he sucked this year pretty bad, but for two of his four data points, Ryan had a wOBA of .324 and .342. Those look pretty ok to me.
Would you like to hear some wOBA scores for players in 2010? Here’s a few to consider:
Drew Stubbs – .342 wOBA
Omar Infante – .340 wOBA
Ichiro Suzuki – .338 wOBA
BJ Upton – .337 wOBA
Michael Cuddyer – .329 wOBA
Placido Polanco – .323 wOBA
Matt Kemp – .323 wOBA
Are these guys examples of “no hit”? No? Then maybe using wOBA isn’t a very good stat to prove this argument.
None of those guys had .260 wOBA in 2010
And Boog had like 100 PA in 07, that means nothing.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 2, 2010 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
Don't disagree
And Boog had like 100 PA in 07, that means nothing.
Guayzimi used the year as a datapoint. I’m just here to disprove the utility of the graph.
by JWO on Dec 2, 2010 1:26 AM EST up reply actions
Why do you think that?
Aside from the obvious fact that Ryan’s career is ahead of him and Everett’s is over…
Here’s their minor league performance:
Ryan: .292/.340/.384 in 1700 PAs
Everett: .259/.346/.368 in 2100 PAs
And most of Everett’s came in AAA while Boog did his thing at the lower levels.
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
And Houston traded Ben Zobrist because they had Adam Everett
Brendan Ryan is still a St. Louis Cardinal.
Aaron Miles is not.
Drayton fail
I don’t think the Astros quite appreciated what they had in Zobrist
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
It has always made me laugh.
Houston didn’t want to promote him because they thought he wasn’t ready.
Tampa put him as their starting SS immediately and he kept playing like he did at Houston’s AAA.
Brendan Ryan is still a St. Louis Cardinal.
Aaron Miles is not.
Haven't you heard? Ryan is practically a 4WAR player.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 1, 2010 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
no, but he is probably a 2 WAR player. which, at a million, makes him a bargain, relative to the alternatives at SS.
"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."
this
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 1, 2010 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
this
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 1, 2010 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
boog has some decent value
but nowhere good enough to get somebody like zumaya or chamberlain in return.
hey Mo: theriot at 2B, boog at SS.
Ryan has a lot more value than people think he does
Due to his tremendous defense, a quality which is still highly underrated. For this reason he will be underpaid in arbitration and undervalued in a trade. For these reasons the best value is for us to keep him, not trade him away.
Trade Skip, a player who will be overvalued due to his high batting average and shitty defense.
Exactly...
No team is going to give up value for a guy that’s likely to put up a 250/290/310 line. Unfortunately, our organization is part of the problem when it comes to over-rating some things and under-rating others.
Screw you, you freakin stats nerd
I seriously doubt there is much trade value for the Cards' entire infield (including bench) not named Pujols
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
someone might bite on Freese, but yes.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
what about descalso?
MO has said all along that they are not really looking for 2nd base help as much as they are looking for SS help. So we all thought he meant skip was penciled in as the everyday guy. But I’m not sure this is the case. I believe skip will get his fair shot at 2nd. But we will also have descalso, greene and theriot vying for time there. I think the middle infield will be a mix of skip, boog, descalso, greene, and theriot. Descalso could still prove to be a solid 2nd basemen.
by rumors on Dec 1, 2010 10:41 PM EST via mobile reply actions
another thing of value is that boog is fast
the cardinals have 3 fast players: rasmus, jay, and ryan. if they are dead set on having theriot at short, then brendan would make a good utility man. I’m sure larussa probably played him in the outfield at some point so he can do that too.
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 1, 2010 11:09 PM EST reply actions
Keep Boog for 2011 trade him in 2012
This season will be Boog’s cheapest and it is an odd number year. If he maintains his pattern, this year will be above average and next year will be below average as well as more expensive, being the 2nd arb year and coming off an above average season. Sell high in next offseason.
The Cards need depth on the infield with Freese at 3B and Schu needing a platoon partner. Whoever is the odd man out in the starting rotation at 2B/SS/3B will still see about 80 starts even without one of the three starters spending any time on the DL. The likelihood of no DL time for 2B/SS/3B is not something to plan on happening. Any trade this offseason would have to be a DeRosa type fleecing of the other team.
make boog the shortstop in 2011!!
boog at shortstop makes the starting pitching a lot better
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 2, 2010 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
I'll second that.
Baseball is only a game. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole.
by Dave Pendleton on Dec 2, 2010 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
Here's the root of Boog's problem
I’ve think pointed this out before, but Brendan Ryan’s understanding of hitting mechanics is all screwed up.
What you see at 1:36 of this clip…
- Brendan Ryan talking hitting
…is utter nonsense.
Very common nonsense, and stuff that’s taught by Don Mattingly and others, but nonsense nonetheless.
I’ve also heard McGwire parrot Mattingly’s stuff, so I assume that’s where this came from.
Man, I’d love to talk to Boog and show him the truth.
I think the real root is in his head.
Baseball is only a game. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole.
by Dave Pendleton on Dec 3, 2010 12:14 AM EST up reply actions
It looks like he's keeping his bat in the zone for a very minimal amount of time.
By trying to put more backspin on it he looked like he was just chopping down instead of getting the head of the bat through.
"I got to get Dr. Freeze off my twig right now."-Nyjer Morgan
by flipthebird15 on Dec 3, 2010 2:39 AM EST up reply actions
lay off the sauce
You think that trading Boog for Zumaya or Chamberlain would be selling low? I would click my heels and float all the way home if either of these deals went down. Ryan has some descent value as a late inning defensive replacement/utility infielder but you have really jumped the shark on this.
by AnkielsInTheOutfield on Dec 3, 2010 1:25 AM EST reply actions
zumaya has been worth 2.6 wins above replacement in his five season career. he's had negative value - worse than replacement
two of the last three. brendan ryan has been worth 5 wins above replacement in that same period, and has been far more consistent.
next time, justify your position with facts rather than telling someone to “lay off the sauce.”
"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."
that's a pretty good assessment...
Ryan has some descent value as a late inning defensive replacement/utility infielder
Short and sweet. At the moment, that’s about it. Who knows if it’ll ever change.
Ozzie was pretty much just a glove man when he first got here.
All of the “going forward” predictions can’t say if he has the type of makeup that Ozzie had to make himself a better hitter.
So, as it stands, without a crystal ball, I’d say that either of these deals would be fair.
My reason for wanting to keep Ryan is mainly just a gut feeling. I could be wrong, I’ve been wrong before but I’m not ready to give up on Ryan just yet.
Everybody raved about Brendon Ryan in ‘09 and everybody’s bummed out about him in ‘10.
I like Ryan at SS more than just about anybody else out there…defensively. I like him enough to say that if he could even improve to being on the minimal side of decent with the bat his value would skyrocket. I think he should be groomed to be a lead-off hitter.
If he had Aaron Miles type numbers would we be pretty happy with him?
I just don’t want to give up on him yet. I’d much rather have seen something done for 2nd base before addressing SS.
This season was pretty tense, to say the least. Hitting was lacking and Ryan really tanked. I don’t think he does well under pressure (Duh?).
In a way, you could say he was the face of the team, magnified…..tense.
If the team around him is hitting and having fun I bet he would too, but as soon as it gets intense (like Shu) he gets tense and it shows.
I think his problems are more mental than physical and it affects his mechanics. I’d treat the head first and see if the mechanics improve.
At the very least, I’d like to see him stay with the team long enough to fight for his job. He’s been a plus except for this season.
Baseball is only a game. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole.
Ryan's head and his mechanics
You are correct that his head is a big part of the problem.
However, this isn’t just mental. He doesn’t just need to focus more.
Rather, neither he nor the person who had him revise his swing understands how a good swing actually looks and works. As a result, Boog is working his ass off to try to pull off a swing that no major leaguer actually uses.
It’s tragic but quite common.
I think he needs to lighten up...
and quit trying all together for awhile. just relax and let it come.
Baseball is only a game. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole.
by Dave Pendleton on Dec 3, 2010 5:55 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, but...
It’s not going to come if he keeps trying to do what he was taught.
Lightening up won’t be enough.
Otherwise, he’ll be a very relaxed Boog with a fundamentally flawed swing.
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