open thread

Sometimes, life sucks.

Sometimes, you’re born Aaron Miles.

Repeal The LaRussa Tax.

by Michael_68_1999 on Nov 27, 2010 2:27 PM EST reply actions

i'd become aaron miles in a day

without hesitation

from the lou and im proud AND st. louis (ahem bitches)

by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 27, 2010 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

it would be truly interesting if Aaron Miles was a regular poster here

Fire John Mozeliak

by purple_haze on Nov 27, 2010 6:57 PM EST up reply actions

he wouldn't stay long

Kyle Lohse has a No-Trade Clause.

by BVHeck on Nov 27, 2010 7:00 PM EST up reply actions

amiles is one lucky dude

I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR

by sportsman on Nov 27, 2010 7:54 PM EST up reply actions

Came up to take some pictures for a family friend for senior pictures. Wife decided old town would be a cool site. Now we are about to get caught up in some sort of christmas parade. Hope we get out in time to make it to the blues game tonight. Anyone else down here?

"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum

by scoot on Nov 27, 2010 2:29 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Jeter

For a guy who is supposedly a genuinely good-guy, he certainly has a vastly inflated idea of his value. I doubt he could get half of what the yanks are offering on the open market.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Nov 27, 2010 2:40 PM EST via mobile reply actions

But he won 5 Gold Gloves!

/end sarcasm

Bob Feller is THE prime example of a cranky old man...working with him a 8:00 AM has to be one of the most dangerous jobs in America.

by mtzxc on Nov 27, 2010 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

...

I doubt he could get ~~half~~ a quarter of what the yanks are offering on the open market.

by vivaelpujols on Nov 27, 2010 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

notwithstanding his sucktastic 2010, he could be a 3-4 war player in 2011.

The yanks offer seems fine on aav. It’s much worse on years. A 3 year deal should have a huge discount built in. His notion that he should get $23-24m for the next 4-5 years is insane.

37, 38, 39, 40 – even the best players tank at that age (except for barry bonds). One of the things in the post which will never see light now was that out of the top 500 career years in WAR only 5 came from players age 37 or older (non-bonds division): Cy young (twice), ted williams, phil niekro, and a deadball era pitcher whose name escapes me now.

Not that jeter needs to have an 8-10 war season, but the trend shows how quickly people lose value in that age range.

"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."

by tom s. on Nov 27, 2010 5:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Actually, if Jeter's defense is as bad as WOWY says it is

He’d have to be a .400 wOBA hitter to be a 4 WAR player.

by vivaelpujols on Nov 27, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions

It's a negotiation...

Rolling over and taking what management wants to give you doesn’t make you a “genuinely good guy.”

by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 27, 2010 7:09 PM EST up reply actions

When you get an offer for more than you are worth

you take it. If you don’t, you seem like an ass with an inflated sense of self-worth.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Nov 27, 2010 11:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

The amount of money and years greater than 3yr/$45mm that Jeter eventually signs for....

will be what you would have cost him had you been his agent.

BTW, I’m guessing that Jeter and his agent don’t agree that the current offer is “for more than Jeter is worth,” nor would they agree that Jeter is fungible to the Yankees, and capable of being replaced with another SS that is likely to put up similar numbers according to a simple $=WAR projection system.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 28, 2010 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

I am thinking of buying thepainguy's rotational hitting DVD for my nephew

he is going to be a big Lego looking dude i guess I should get him started doing it right

Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have? Frank Chance 1908

by TomCat009 on Nov 27, 2010 2:42 PM EST reply actions

sometimes?

All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away

by gdm426 on Nov 27, 2010 2:53 PM EST reply actions

come on, gdm. impressionable teens read this.

We have to break the bad news slowly. We start with “sometimes.”

Congrats on the job, btw.

"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."

by tom s. on Nov 27, 2010 5:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

thank tom, i always forget about the children

All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away

by gdm426 on Nov 27, 2010 6:43 PM EST up reply actions

Prophet John in Chitown

st louis to austin. better stop off in chicago for a couple hours huh

Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter

by prophetjohn on Nov 27, 2010 3:04 PM EST reply actions

Oh jeez that sounds like a great post

I’m sorry, that’s happened to me many times.

by vivaelpujols on Nov 27, 2010 3:34 PM EST reply actions

I'm not saying it

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Nov 27, 2010 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

In bed.

Bob Feller is THE prime example of a cranky old man...working with him a 8:00 AM has to be one of the most dangerous jobs in America.

by mtzxc on Nov 27, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

close, but wrong meme

by ubeddie on Nov 27, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

Both work in this case though.

Bob Feller is THE prime example of a cranky old man...working with him a 8:00 AM has to be one of the most dangerous jobs in America.

by mtzxc on Nov 27, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions

something something pitch f/x something something

Kyle Lohse has a No-Trade Clause.

by BVHeck on Nov 27, 2010 6:49 PM EST up reply actions

f'in sbn, tom s. f'in sbn.

Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Nov 27, 2010 3:41 PM EST reply actions

i know, i know

by tomsteele on Nov 27, 2010 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

Oh my god

http://thecardinalnationblog.com/2010/11/27/using-war-to-identify-cardinals-bargains-and-busts-in-2010/

by vivaelpujols on Nov 27, 2010 4:34 PM EST via mobile reply actions

why am I not surprised that this is your reaction?

Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have? Frank Chance 1908

by TomCat009 on Nov 27, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions

I was just shocked by the Lohse thing

by vivaelpujols on Nov 27, 2010 4:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

What stands out to me (not that it hasn't been noted here before)

Is 1764 plate appearances given to replacement level players. 5 of those players were free-agent signings.

Play ball!

by IL and StL Fan on Nov 27, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions

without looking - lopez, feliz, winn, miles . . . .

Larue?

One thing I noted last year was that we had a lot more crap on our roster; between k greene and a few others (ankiel, duncan) we ended up losing like 3 war just to subreplacement types. We didn’t do as bad this year (mather and feliz were the biggest offenders). Still, we seem to give a lot more time to terrible players than other teams.

"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."

by tom s. on Nov 27, 2010 5:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

wait what the fuck?

Matt Holliday 675 5.5 $16,333,327 6.7 -1.2

I did the standard $4 million per 1.0 WAR and he comes out to 22 million… how the hell did he get -1.2?

from the lou and im proud AND st. louis (ahem bitches)

by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 27, 2010 5:20 PM EST up reply actions

nevermind i figured it out

that seems way off to me… he has Holliday being worth 5.5 WAR and being paid to have 6.7 WAR…

that isn’t right AT ALL…

from the lou and im proud AND st. louis (ahem bitches)

by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 27, 2010 5:21 PM EST up reply actions

I think he must have switched the numbers

by vivaelpujols on Nov 27, 2010 5:49 PM EST up reply actions

this is going by BRef WAR

Fire John Mozeliak

by purple_haze on Nov 27, 2010 7:02 PM EST up reply actions

still doesn't pan out

in no universe is 17 mil—or whatever mattyHo is getting paid—expected to produce 6.7 WAR of value.

by mattyp on Nov 27, 2010 7:22 PM EST up reply actions

this is true

Fire John Mozeliak

by purple_haze on Nov 27, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions

The figures seem off to me

Felipe Lopez is listed at $1M salary, 0.3 paid WAR
Skip is listed at $2M salary, 0.7 paid WAR
So, if $0.4M is 0, that’s 0.3WAR for a .6M difference, 0.5 WAR/M
But, the difference between Skip and Felipe is 0.4 WAR/M
Then, the difference between Albert and Lego is a little more than 1 WAR/M.

So the scale is non-linear?

by ArkansasTravs on Nov 27, 2010 9:53 PM EST up reply actions

If you guys start bringing Dif Eq into this I'm out...

"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson

by ducttape16 on Nov 28, 2010 12:12 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Why should it be linear?

Intuitively, it shouldn’t be linear because, for starters, there aren’t an unlimited number of baseball players capable of playing at one time.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 28, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

But, in actuallity, baseball players are played linearly

Look up dollar per WAR on google, there are many studies out there. The majority of them find a linear connection to dollar per WAR.

by vivaelpujols on Nov 28, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions

paid

by vivaelpujols on Nov 28, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions

I don't know that it should be

I just assumed, from the little I’ve read about such evaluations (mostly here), that there usually was a $/WAR value and that is what was used to find the “worth” of a player to a team. If they used a non-linear scale in which the value of a WAR rose with the number of WAR, I could understand the justification for that. I’m not sure I agree from a roster construction approach that the 7th WAR produced by player A is more valuable than the 2nd WAR produced by player B. But I could understand someone arguing that point.

by ArkansasTravs on Nov 28, 2010 7:08 PM EST up reply actions

So Suppan was replacement value and PJ and Hawk were negative

If they can get him for the minimum, I would do it

Just win

by The Duke on Nov 27, 2010 6:12 PM EST up reply actions

disclaimer

wcbw makes an appearance

Kyle Lohse has a No-Trade Clause.

by BVHeck on Nov 27, 2010 6:57 PM EST up reply actions

His $/WAR calculation seems very, very low.

According to him, the market value of one WAR from Holliday is just over $2.5M- a number that is about 60% of the standard number.

Enter vivaelpujols
My great wit allows me to interject that by assuming the partakers of this conversation are inbedded and perhaps romantically entangled, rather than indeed, the truthful observation that they are both platonic and standing upright. Great comedy may be produced!! -Aranathor

by hazel on Nov 27, 2010 8:22 PM EST up reply actions

The numbers aren't internally consistent from player to player on that table.

Stats are not the strength of that blog.

Silly humans, this world is for robots.

by azruavatar on Nov 27, 2010 8:50 PM EST up reply actions

ok, so sbn didn't eat my thread. mlbtraderumors.com stole it.

The reliever half of the thread was about george sherrill, who is about to be non-tendered by the dodgers.

Sherrill went from having an era under 2 to one over 6. (See if this were my real thread, it would have actual numbers.). His big problem. was a high walk rate – like 5.9 bb/9. However, sherrill has a 4ish bb/9 rate over his career.

The weird thing is in 7 seasons sherrill has 4 seasons with a walk rate under 3.5, and three over 5.5, and none in between those two marks. so either sherrill has the worst case of jekyll and hyde control, or it’s really dumb to look at relievers just in terms of their last season. Think brad lidge, who famously had awful seasons followed by outstanding ones.

It’s not lidge or sherrill who’s broken: it’s your expectations.

Now, if people are really talking about sherrill going on a minor league deal, then we should pounce. Offer him a major league deal at 500k to 1m, with an end date on it. He may stink up the joint or he may be great. But if the going rate is at or near league min, why not? Anybody who thinks his 6.69 era is predictive of bad things will be the same one clamoring toi trade for him in june if he’s got an era of 1.50.

"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."

by tom s. on Nov 27, 2010 5:32 PM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs