Arizona Farm League Results

by JWO on Nov 24, 2010 1:19 AM EST

I know folks have talked briefly about Zack Cox and some of the other guys performing in the Arizona Fall League. But it occurred to me that no one on this site had actually sat down and compiled the final numbers for our Birds. So with that in mind, I wanted to do a quick summation of performances in the AFL this year. I'll throw a few quick stats out there and limit the commentary. Forgive the lack of fielding stats, but they just don't seem to be out there. It is the Arizona league, after all. Also, please excuse the small sample size. It is what it is.

The St. Louis Cardinals had seven folks playing on the Surprise Rafters. I've created a hotlink to their page, in case anyone wants to take a peek. Those players are as follows (in alphabetical order):

Brian Broderick (RP): Brian appears to have had a mediocre turn in the fall league. His strikeout total was pretty modest (11), but he did manage to keep his walks down (7). He also did well against right-handed hitters, holding them to a .208 batting average. And yes, as with all these guys, the sample sizes are small. But if he is projecting as a 7th-8th inning reliever, he seems to have met expectations. Grade: B-

3 wins - 1 loss
4.39 ERA
26.2 Innings
1.41 WHIP

Adron Chambers (OF): Adron's numbers were good, although the small sample size makes me cautious. He batted .333, and had a healthy OPS of .831. I was also impressed by his 10 stolen bases over the course of only 18 games. One potential downside, his strikeout total was very high, getting 14 Ks with only 66 at-bats. Hard to imagine someone sticking at a major league level when they don't put the ball in play 25% of the time. Grade: B

.333 AVG (66 at-bats)
1 HR
19 RBIs
10 SBs
.831 OPS

Zack Cox (3B): Everybody's favorite lowbie prospect, Cox struggled a bit at the plate, finishing his time in the AFL with a .262 average and striking out 21 times in 65 at-bats. However, Cox did seem to improve measurably in his last few games. He hit his only two home runs during the last four games, and put up an OPS of .993 in his last ten games. That suggests that he got his sea legs under him, and started producing. Still, I'm a tough grader. This guy is very young, and may need some more seasoning. Grade: C+

.262 AVG (65 at-bats)
2 HRs
14 RBIs
.779 OPS

Tony Cruz (C): This guy might be the surprise of the group that went to Arizona. Setting aside the small sample size, Cruz squeezed out a .342 average, 3 HRs, and 17 RBI with 76 at-bats. His OPS was .893. And he hit even BETTER with runners in scoring position (.387). So yeah, yeah. Its only a handful of games. But these numbers are enough to make one curious. This guy has hit for solid average at every level through AA Springfield. I suspect he will be in Memphis next year, and making things interesting. Grade: A-

.342 AVG (76 at-bats)
3 HRs
17 RBI
.893 OPS

Ramon Delgado (RP): Another Cardinals relief pitcher that didn't embarass anyone, but didn't seem to wow folks. He pitched very well in Springfield this year, but his numbers in the AFL were so-so. a 3.65 ERA and a WHIP of 1.23 gets you a cup of coffee, but a low strikeout rate doesn't help the cause much. To his credit, he gave up no hits at all in four of his ten appearances. And the 19 lefthanded batters he faced while in the AFL managed a paltry .182 average against him. In conclusion, I suspect this guy has a lot of promise, but I'm not sure we saw it in the few weeks he was down in Arizona. Grade: B

3.65 ERA
10 Games
12.1 Innings
1.23 WHIP

Blake King (RP): While Delgado managed to impress at times, Blake had some tough games in Arizona. He finished with a 6.30 ERA. Particularly scary to me, his GO/AO ratio was 0.58, meaning that a lot of his pitches were getting fly balls, NOT groundballs like Mr. Dave Duncan prefers. That probably doesn't bode well. He also walked quite a few people, eight in ten innings of work. That's... not so good. I'm not sure what his ceiling is, but I can't imagine he will advance beyond Springfield until he can show a bit more consistency. Grade: C-

6.30 ERA
10 Games
12.1 Innings
1.90 WHIP

Peter Kozma (SS): Well lookie here! Everyone's favorite punching bag. This may disappoint folks, but I am pleased to report that Kozma didn't suck in his AFL stint. He didn't wow anyone either, but I prefer to look at the glass as half full, not half empty. Numbers of note are his .269 average, .762 OPS, and a very encouraging last game, where he picked up two doubles and a triple. No word on his defense, but I hope and pray he worked on that aggressively during his desert sojourn. Grade: C+

.269 average (67 at-bats)
0 HRs
4 RBI
18 Strikeouts
.762 OPS

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Comments

Chambers

I’m a fan of his. If he can cut down on the Ks next season, we might be looking at a possible catalyst for our offense in the coming years. He’s got excellent speed and has the ability to draw a walk when needed. How is his glove in the outfield?

"When I gave up a grand slam to Pete LaCock," Bob Gibson said later, "I knew it was time to quit."

by The Classical on Nov 24, 2010 10:41 AM EST reply actions

He's supposedly a pretty decent CF

so I think we can surmise his glove is pretty good. Not sure about his arm.

His main problem is that he’s somewhat blocked by Rasmus and Jay, and realistically it’s hard to see where he gets any playing time with those two left-handed CFers on the roster. Also, because he’s a slightly late bloomer and previously not a well-regarded prospect, it’s hard to see us getting much trade value for him, which is a shame. If Craig hits well next year, and Chambers continues to impress in Memphis, I wonder if Jay could eventually become a tradeable piece…

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Nov 25, 2010 6:58 AM EST up reply actions

Jay is tradeable now....

Jay is a complementary piece no matter how one slices it.

Also, I’ve seen several reports that Adron’s arm is outstanding (I have not seen him play so can’t confirm from personal observation).

by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 25, 2010 9:38 AM EST up reply actions

fair comment.

There’s Tyler Henley too, who I think is going to pretty much be interchangeable with Jay.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Nov 28, 2010 7:54 AM EST up reply actions

don't tell that to Chitown....

quick, uh.. AVERT YOUR EYES MAN!

from the lou and im proud AND st. louis (ahem bitches)

by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 28, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

eat it

"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 28, 2010 10:58 PM EST up reply actions

Pretty harsh grade for Cox...

this is his first turn at pro ball and he ended up excelling. What did you want?

Screw you, you freakin stats nerd

by guayzimi on Nov 24, 2010 12:19 PM EST reply actions

I agree

Cox came in basically cold, having had just a few pro at bats since his college season ended. And he held his own, and was improving at the end, in a league with a lot of talent. Would love to see him start at AA next year.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 24, 2010 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

I wasn't grading potential

I was giving a grade for what he did in the AFL. Yes, Cox improved as he played. But its already a small sample size. I expect in another year, he will probably be tearing it up. My only observation was, as far as Arizona went, he didn’t do it.

by JWO on Nov 24, 2010 7:22 PM EST up reply actions

If Kozma did that for a full season,

wouldn’t that be his highest ever OPS?

Enter vivaelpujols
My great wit allows me to interject that by assuming the partakers of this conversation are inbedded and perhaps romantically entangled, rather than indeed, the truthful observation that they are both platonic and standing upright. Great comedy may be produced!! -Aranathor

by hazel on Nov 24, 2010 1:39 PM EST reply actions

yeah, the sample size here is dreadful, but if anybody thinks kozma can hit close to .779 and stand at shortstop,

that’s a triumph.

list of qualifying SS with a better than .770 OPS: drew, ramirez, and tulowitski.

"We were men - flesh and blood - and we played baseball in the sunshine. We hit doubles off the wall, slid hard into second base. We had fights, and we made love. We sang songs and prayed on Sundays. . . . We felt pain. And we felt joy. There was a lot wrong with the world. But we weren't sad, man. We had the times of our lives." Buck O'Neil, from "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America."

by tom s. on Nov 27, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

curious what the park factors are in FIP

Delgado – 4.03 FIP (6 Ks, 3 BBs, HR)
King – 4.90 FIP (10 Ks, 8 BBs, HR)
Boderick – 5.64 FIP (11 Ks, 7 BBs, 5 HRs[!!])

wOBAs (this is not knowing how many times they were hit or reached base on error since i couldn’t find data)
Cruz – .393 (with a .390 BABIP)
Chambers – .368 (with a .412 BABIP)
Cox – .345 (with a .357 BABIP)
Kozma – .333 (with a .367 BABIP)

The median BABIP was .359 of the four players so this was obviously a massive hitter’s league and the FIPs are probably way lower than what I calculated

from the lou and im proud AND st. louis (ahem bitches)

by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 24, 2010 2:57 PM EST reply actions

FIP isn't park-adjusted in any of its generally used incarnations, as far as I know.

Broderick’s a starter, whereas King and Delgado are relievers, so a higher HR rate (as a counting stat) is probably to be expected. He’ll have pitched a lot more innings. He is, however, decidedly mediocre.

Impressed with Chambers, and with the way Cox bounced back, though.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Nov 25, 2010 7:02 AM EST up reply actions

I question the usefulness of such a literal interpretation of AFL statistics

The Arizona Fall League is generally considered to be mostly for scouting purposes and as a way for top prospects to get a little extra development time. I’m very pleased at Cox and Cruz’s performances in this league although I heard some skepticism about Cox from scouts in the early going. Everyone else (including Chambers) I could give or take.

Fire John Mozeliak

by purple_haze on Nov 28, 2010 2:12 AM EST reply actions

I understand your skepticism

But there must be some value to it. If going to the AFL is worthless, why do so many teams take the trouble to send prospects out there to work on their tools and show their skills? Heck, if these simulated games aren’t worth anything, just send the most talented young birds down to Jupiter for a two-week minicamp with McGuire, Duncan and some other Cardinals staff?

by JWO on Nov 28, 2010 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

i'm not saying the games aren't worth anything

i’m just saying the statistics coming from the games aren’t worth much and performances should be judged relative to expectations rather than just context-free. I think Cox deserves a solid B for doing as well as he could be expected to. I think Chambers’ performance wasn’t as good as it seems and I think Broderick did just fine considering the level of hitters he was facing. There’s a blanket SSS warning here, of course, so like I said, you aren’t gonna get much in the way of meaningful statistics here. Just an impression of how players compete with other highly rated prospects.

Fire John Mozeliak

by purple_haze on Nov 28, 2010 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

Giving out grades based on AFL stats is a bit presumptuous.

It’s simply not the case that a prospect who lights it up or stays ice cold for the entire AFL is really going to do much good or bad for his stock. IMO, none of the pitching prospects seem worthy of good grades considering their roundly shitty display of control, and it’s tough to say any of the hitters were very good or bad because of the insanely high BABIPs they all sported. Also, none of their defense was even reported. Perhaps next season we can have a designated VEB scout at the AFL?

by hazel on Nov 28, 2010 8:37 PM EST up reply actions

looking up at the numbers from 2009, mike parisi had a stellar az league.

he then got picked in the rule 5. nobody GAF. then he went to iowa and continued to suck as he always had done. i don’t see a real close relationship between succes in arizona and success afterwards.

by tom s. on Dec 1, 2010 9:38 PM EST up reply actions