Bringing Back Suppan: Yea or Nay?
Hey all. First of all, I am stoked on Westbrook being signed to a contract that doesn't seem like a complete ripoff. Granted I'm going to be nervous for every million dollars we put towards signing someone before we've finalized a new deal with Pujols, but we essentially traded Penny's contract for Westbrook's.
While I feel that Pujols should be the next thing we do even if it means we miss out on signing a has-been shortstop like Edgar Renteria or Miguel Tejada, I did have one idea and was wondering what you all thought of it. HINT: It's in the subject line.
I feel Jeff Suppan should be signed; although he'd have to do so on our conditions, to basically fulfill the role he got last year when we brought him on for the minimum at the end of the season. I think he'd be just fine as a long reliever and occasional spot starter if only for the right price. However the issue is that there's probably a small chance some team somewhere might be interested in signing him as a starter. And it's understandable that starting is the role Suppan would be searching for if possible. It's what he's used to, it's what gets you recognition, and more importantly starters make more money than relievers.
However if no one bites, preferably near this offseason's end, I'd like to think Suppan would face the facts that no one would trust him as a full-time starter after his last few years in Milwaukee. If he truly feels he has some more years in him and wants to be a full-time starter again, he'd have to earn it with a solid performance as a long reliever/spot starter.
Think about it, guys. If the price were right, would it honestly be worse than giving that type of role to Blake Hawksworth or PJ Walters again? We saw signs of life out of Suppan. It was a small sample size but it made me think that maybe it was as simple as returning back to his fond memories of wearing the birds on the bat for him to get on the road to recovery from his horrifying stint with the Brewers.
One year, $1 million? Not sure if that's even within the realm of possibility considering the huge money he had with his last contract. But he'd have to understand, this wouldn't be like taking a flyer on Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, Brad Penny, Brandon Webb, or Chien-Ming Wang. He doesn't have an injury to use as an excuse for his skill dropping off the face of the Earth. And he wasn't ever an ace, either, despite the Brewers giving him ace money in 2007. Signing anyone from that group I just mentioned (I'm pretending it's still the 2009 offseason for most of them, I know) is what is known as "low risk, high reward." Suppan should be considered "low risk, mid-ranged reward" at this point.
What do you guys think? If you're interested in bringing back Suppan, what do you think the contract should look like?
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Jeff Suppan is as if not more replaceable than LaRue
We have a ton of options that could not just replace, but probably outperform Suppan. A minor league deal with an invite to ST is probably the most I’d give him.
check out VEB on facebook...just search groups for Viva El Birdos
call up a minor leaguer and give him a shot if we have to resort to Suppan level
"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 16, 2010 11:28 PM EST reply actions
NO.
he clearly showed that he’s not the same soup that we saw in 06… and even then, he was throwing 87, 88 tops. we can easily replace soup.
Maybe,
MAYBE, offer him a minor league deal, no more. I’d as soon see Lynn or someone else from Memphis make emergency starts next year.
this
as long as it doesn’t kick someone out of the Memphis rotation. Maybe throw in a “you can walk at such and such date if you aren’t called up yet” clause to make it a little sweeter for him.
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
my first response is no
after some hard thought and anyalsis, my calm and collected response is FUCK NO
or to be politically correct – “nay”
by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 17, 2010 1:29 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Who cares?
Suppan is what he is- a crappy back (way back) of the rotation starter. He’s a last-ditch or insurance signing who should not make any difference to a good major league team this season. We already have a fifth starter, our bullpen is full of better pitchers minus lefty relief. We have PJ Walters, we have Lance Lynn, we have Kyle McClellan, we have Hawksworth, Boggs, Kenshin Kawakami is available and Ken Takahashi is a free agent and Chad Gaudin is still alive. Suppan should be a last-ditch signing or injury insurance picked up at league minimum late in spring training and put on the AA roster. Cliff Lee hasn’t even signed yet- why are we talking about one of the worst starters on the market when we can still speculate about where the best one will end up (bold prediction: not here)?
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
Sorry
I felt he did good enough with us at the end to warrant a question. And I don’t feel Cliff Lee is relevant to the Cardinals.
by Ghosty on Nov 17, 2010 10:17 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
the lesser pitchers
always wait for the top dog to sign. once he’s off the market, the teams that missed out fight over everyone that’s left over, causing their prices to go up. that’s how cliff lee is relevant to the cardinals.
Kyle Lohse has a No-Trade Clause.
Is
There a HELL NO!!!!!! option I missed?
The player I would like least at #9 would be my sister’s cat, Captain Creamsicle. She does have a great work ethic and agility, but I’m really concerned that at 9 lbs., she’s too small to play safety in the NFL. She also bites way too often on play action and is easily distracted by someone waving string in the crowd. Lastly, her wonderlic score was pretty awful, answering "meow meow meow" for most of the questions- Dr. Brackish Okun
.
Can someone post his stats from his time with us (not counting Milwaukee) this season?
by Ghosty on Nov 17, 2010 10:15 AM EST via mobile reply actions
sure
ERA 3.84
GS 13
G 15
IP 71
WHIP 1.493
H/910.2
HR/9 1.2
BB/9 3.2
K/9 4.2
SO/BB 1.32
RAR 3
WAR .3
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
The Efrog swoopeth in...
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 17, 2010 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
are those just for his time with the Cardinals?
Because it looks like those are his season numbers.
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
yes
Fangraphs.com supports partial season numbers.
He was, just being him with the Cardinals. Nothing special.
Cardinals fan from Korea
hmm
it won’t surprise you guys to learn that as a Suppan-defender (you all prob think I’m 12 yrs old but I’m 27!) I’m not very savvy to a lot of those stats you posted; I’m just staring at an ERA under 4 and wondering why no one thinks that’s decent. He’s even a hair over replacement level which is a heckuvalotmore than I can say for Hawksworth who was -1.1 WAR in 2010.
The sub 4 ERA is kind of deceiving if you look at his saber stats
He could have easily had a 4.8+ ERA if a few balls had landed differently.
Always late to the party
The ERA was under 4.00
But he walked a lot, struck out very few, gave up tons of baserunners, and just generally pitched in a way that invites a lot more runs to score than actually did, for some reason. The advanced stats can tell us a little bit about why.
Look at it this way — in the first half of the year, in Milwaukee, he got destroyed. Totally bombed. 7.84 ERA! Awful!
Then he came to St. Louis. In the midst of what his ERA shows as a miracle transformation, he struck out less batters than when he was in Milwaukee (rate-wise), walked hitters at about the same rate, didn’t get appreciably more ground balls, and allowed homers at basically the same rate. Yet somehow, he magically posted an ERA under 4.00 for us. Something just doesn’t add up there. How do you pitch just as shitty but get much better results?
Well, in his time with the Cards last year, he stranded about 80% of baserunners, which is about 10% more than his career average and significantly higher than any single year of his career. There’s no skill involved in stranding runners when you can’t strike people out and your WHIP is over 1.50 — it’s just blind luck. He gave up lots of baserunners, but they just didn’t happen to push those baserunners around to score. It’s the old baseball adage of “scattering” the baserunners — except Suppan gave up a shitload of them and scattered them as if he had divine intervention. And that’s nice, but I’m not signing him again to see if that luck continues, because it almost certainly won’t.
Suppan is probably not a 7.00 ERA guy, but he’s sure as shit not a <4.00 ERA guy. He’s probably more like the 5.00 ERA guy that he was last year if you combine his stint with the Brewers and the Cardinals together. That’s not a pitcher we need.
by mojowo11 on Nov 19, 2010 4:36 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
a 5 ERA guy who goes 5-6 innings
IS what we need for a 6th starter. As long as he is paid like a 5 ERA guy who goes 5-6 innings.
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
Of our prospective 6th starters (Walters, Hawk, Gaudin, McClellan),
Suppan has a higher projected ERA than all of them.
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
I don't see how you can even begin to project ERA
without knowing what team a pitcher will be on. But whatever.
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
If the pitchers are all prospectively pitching for us,
then we kind of do know what team they are going to be on.
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
Hawksworth, or even Walters, Lynn or McClellan, might all possibly improve.
Suppan is only going to get worse. TBH, I’m not convinced Suppan is any better than any of those guys right now.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 25, 2010 7:06 AM EST up reply actions
I'd say no
The guy was part of the problem last year, barely making it out of the fifth inning at best. That stretches your ‘pen out and, let’s face it, ‘pen guys are out there because they’re by definition not starters. ’Pen guys throwing big innings is almost never a recipe for success.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 17, 2010 10:39 AM EST reply actions
While it's true he averaged about between 5-6 IP per start
This is what you expect from your fifth starter. Anyone else who takes that role would be the type of pitcher that averages 5-6 IP
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
True
But the team’s already paying Lohse a huge heap of cash and has guys like Lynn and Hawksworth who could conceivably fill in in a pinch. There’s no particular reason to grab Suppan with a bunch of cheap kids and a sunk cost floating around.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 17, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
LL
I DO want to see them give Lynn a chance, but not as a bullpen piece. They need to give him a chance to hone his skills as a starter so they can bring him up to do so for however long it would be necessary for him to do so if/when Lohse gets hurt.
Hawksworth is out of options
so the choice at the end of spring training will be to include a Suppan or Hawksworth as the long man in the bullpen. Suppan would have to sign a deal that allows him to be sent to Memphis until the all star break or so, otherwise signing Suppan would mean releasing a very similar pitcher, less expensive Hawksworth.
no
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
by scoot on Nov 17, 2010 12:11 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Think about it, guys. If the price were right, would it honestly be worse than giving that type of role to Blake Hawksworth or PJ Walters again?
No, it would be exactly the same as giving that type of role to Blake Hawksworth or PJ Walters again. Hence it’s not really worth spending any money on.
Still bitching to contact.
This
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 17, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
WAR! What is it good for?
2010 WARs:
Suppan: 0.3
Walters: -0.5
Hawksworth: -1.1
Thing is,
younger players are cheaper and get better. Older players cost more and get worse.
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
by hazel on Nov 18, 2010 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah
But I’m not suggesting we sign Suppan for more than one year nor am I suggesting we release Hawksworth. Hawky would still get work in PK situations. Walters would still start in Memphis.
by Ghosty on Nov 18, 2010 11:38 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
i wouldn't flip out if we released hawksworth
Stand inside an empty tuxedo with grapes in my mouth, waiting for Ada
twatter
by prophetjohn on Nov 18, 2010 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Me neither
but I don’t think he’s likely any worse than Suppan, going forward.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 25, 2010 7:08 AM EST up reply actions
Chuckb's kinda made this point already
but xFIP, which predicts what a players FIP would be given a league average homerun-per-flyball rate (which tends to be around 10% for nearly all pitchers, with minor fluctuations) for the last THREE seasons:
Suppan: 5.06
Hawk: 4.46
Hawksworth’s 27 this season, Suppan is 35.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 25, 2010 7:12 AM EST up reply actions
no just doesn't seam like a strong enough word
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
should there even be a question?
the dude just is not very good. Brad Thompson would be better than Jeff Suppan.
"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 17, 2010 7:14 PM EST reply actions
Ummm
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
by VolsnCards5 on Nov 17, 2010 8:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Irrelevant...
… If Suppan is an improvement on this team in any way, then we have no chance of making the playoffs.
by kindred on Nov 17, 2010 10:06 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
uh
Suppan was an improvement over Hawksworth last year and we almost made the playoffs. You can’t blame Suppan for our choking to death over teams like the Nationals, Pirates, and Astros. You want to blame someone for that but Suppan is not the guy.
i'd suggest Miles
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
We didn't almost make the playoffs...
… We lost by 5 games in an absolutely terrible division, and that is after a meaningless 5 game win streak that corresponded with a 3 game Reds losing streak. We were out of the race for all of September and most of August.
That isn’t Suppan’s fault at all, but the fact that Suppan was an improvement over other options only defends my point: Suppan made the team better last year, and the team got blown away.
If this happens...
it will only be at a Minor League Contract with an invite to ST. This should not happen unless Kyle Lohse decides to waive his no trade clause and the Pirates/Nationals trade nothing to get him but eat his salary (that would be a dream come true). You have a guy named Lance Lynn sitting in the minors who projects to be a 5th starter. He should be the person you look to in order to fill the role, not an old man hanging on to memories of a postseason that earned him millions of dollars.
But
Lynn is blocked by our starting five. And the last time we took legitimate starting prospects and had them fill in in the bullpen we endes up with McClellan and Boggs in the bullpen permanently. Not suggesting that’s a bad thing but that’s probably what would happen if we brought him up out of ST. My suggestion is we have Suppan be our long reliever and emergency starter. If we get a starter on the 60-day DL (God forbid) then we bring up Lynn.
by Ghosty on Nov 18, 2010 11:44 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
In a perfect world in two years when Lohse and Westbrook’s contracts expire, we replace them with Miller and Lynn.
by Ghosty on Nov 18, 2010 11:46 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
That perfect world includes Carpenter, doesn't it?
Realistically, I think, the plan is for Miller to replace Carpenter. Lynn would replace one of Westy/KyLo, and whatever other prospects that distinguish themselves between now and then compete for the 5 slot.
i expect lynn to replace carpenter next year
and then in a perfect world, miller and martinez replace Lohse and Westbrook
Wainwright
Miller
Martinez
Garcia
Lynn
holy shit why can’t things ever turn out this way?
by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 18, 2010 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
not exactly a reason...
just proof of why you can’t hope for it…
by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 19, 2010 5:07 AM EST up reply actions
If Jeff Suppan is the Answer,
you sure have to wonder about the question.
I saw one of Suppan’s better games in person last year, where he used smoke, mirrors, his defense, and huge amounts of luck to barely hold a bad Pirates team at bay. I’d be very nervous to have to rely on him going forward. Even 6th starters have a way of being needed.
The problem with Suppan is with luck he MIGHT have a deceptive 4.00 ERA. But with a different flavor of luck, he’ll be over 7:00 again. He has little upside—his good years are gone. The best you’ll get from him is mediocre, and you might get a whole lot worse.
I’d rather have the roster spot go to someone with more upside.
question would be
“If we have one of our starters go for a few weeks, who can we afford that will give us 5-6 innings and won’t break the bank?”
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
Jeff Suppan pitched six innings in only three starts last season-
about 20% of his total. He pitched five innings in just over half of his starts. So if the question is, “who can give us 5 innings 50% of the time, while routinely giving the game away before he leaves it and overexposing the bullpen in any case?” Then the answer is, in fact, Jeff Suppan.
Jeff Suppan is also the answer to the question, “Who might Evilfrog show up to start defending when he has no place on this team and is at best an unnecessary afterthought, at worst a roster mainstay due to horrible injuries, and in any case a terrible outcome for 2011?”
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
by hazel on Nov 19, 2010 9:39 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
5-6 innngs inlcudes
5 IP; 5.1 IP, 5.2 IP, and 6.0 IP
Which is what Suppan did in all but his first 2 starts with the Cardinals, when they were starting to stretch him out from moving out of the bullpen. But whatever, he is completely replaceable with dozen of other pitchers out there and it’s not worth burning Busch down about. Just don’t whine if we let Suppan walk and end up with another Mike Maroth or Kip Wells.
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
Suppan has a 5.11 ERA over the past 3 years
He’ll be 36. He tops out at 87 MPH, he has bad control and terrible breaking stuff. Small sample size in St. Louis doesn’t mean jack shit – Suppan is replacement level or below going forward. We can do better.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 19, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Suppan has been at or below replacement level for three years in a row.
Replacement level is, by definition, the level at which Randy Keisler or Brad Thompson could come up and pitch. Why do we even care who eats these garbage innings when Uehara, Takahashi, Gaudin, Jukich, Wang, and everyone in the Rule V draft, is still available and most of our Memphis rotation could do better anyway?
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
You need the keys to the van to pull it off.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Another point worth noting
Suppan, after a superficially decent last couple of months for the Cardinals (with a sub-5.00 ERA) might want to have one last season as a starting pitcher. If that’s the case, you’d think he’s more likely to sign for a bad team needing a cheap 5th starter for the league minimum (Pittsburgh, Arizona, Cleveland etc.) than to sign for us to be a long reliever or on a minor-league deal.
Still bitching to contact.
I'm in the yes list
If you are signing him to be a spot starter/long relief, makes sense to me. Some of the non-suppan crap we threw out there last year was just awful. i think he fills a niche. He’s the perfect guy to throw 3-4 innings when one of your starters gets blown out or to start the 12th inning of what seems to be a lot of long duration games as well as the occasional double-header start.
If you are signing him to compete for a fifth spot, I say no.
Generally his numbers are not that good but he had a prolonged time period in Milwaukee where he didn’t throw much before he hooked on here. I think he showed signs that he can give you a 5-6 inning start 10-15 times a year at replacement to above replacement level.
He won’t cost anything if he’s a free agent, but is he a free agent or does he have another year left on his other contract?
Just win
you know who else won't cost anything?
players in our farm system, some of whom are likely to outperform Suppan
by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 25, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Suppan is in no way perfect
in fact, I’d like to see him never play for the Cardinals again, since I’d like the team to win
"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 26, 2010 9:21 PM EST up reply actions
I say no, because he has absolutely no upside
I’d much rather have someone in the 6th starter role who at least has the potential to be better than mediocre.
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)

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