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The Best Hitters in the "Year of the Pitcher"

OK, so by now I think it has settled in with everyone just how weird a season 2010 was for major league baseball. We are about to start a world series between the Rangers and the Giants, first of all. I gotta say, I wasn't expecting that one (although indakind and purplehaze correctly guessed this outcome, if I'm not mistaken). This brings to mind Tim Lincecum, who wasn't even a Cy Young candidate this year, despite being Mr. Cy Young Award in his brief career thus far. Still, he is one of the most referenced names and faces in this new trend of excellent starting pitchers (although not sure just how much better the pitching has been, is this more of a myth?). But I'm not going to be writing about pitching in this post, oh no. Time to delve into more offensive statistical realms and outcomes.

Star-divide

We know there's an award for batting average: the batting title. But who were the players that could avoid an out most often? Before going into this in more detail (thanks, fangraphs.com!), I'd like to point out that during Albert Pujols' career so far, his On-Base Percentage is 13th ALL TIME. Only Todd Helton and Barry Bonds can top that among recent players. Anyway, to celebrate those frequent on base offenders, On Base Average Champ is Joey Votto... but, our very own King Albert was second this year in the NL (Miguel Cabrera was 2nd overall). Pujols, however, scored the most runs in the majors. So sometimes that aggressive baserunning can pay off (with a little luck and willpower thrown in; and grit doesn't hurt either). Texeira, Weeks, C. Gonzalez, Cabrera and Jeter all scored more than 110 runs this season).

Back to OBP, Hamilton, Mauer, Choo, and Fielder were also over .400 OBP players, making them among the most valuable players in the major leagues. The best of the .300 tier was Jason Heyward, surprisingly. Amazing that a rookie could have the 8th best on base average in 2010! He ended up not being that overhyped after all (ok, so the ESPN stuff at the beginning of the season was batshit insane). To round out the Top 10 on base % playas, Daric Barton boasts a skillful .393. Konerko and A-Gon were both .393'ers too. Next our shiny-headed one, Mr. Holliday, getting onto the basepaths 39% of the time. It's a bit bittersweet to note, that no other team had more than one player in the top 12 on base percentage players... this just goes to show how awful most of the rest of the team was at getting on base. Next Cardinal on the list was Rasmus' respectable 38th best in the majors, a .361. Outside of Pujols, Holliday, and Rasmus, the other players' on base percentages were rather disappointing (Yadier was at .329... and all the other guys were faster than him!). All those low percentages lowered the runs scored for the team.

So that was the oba zen masters... I think most people know the big slugger this season was Josh Hamilton (who is about to compete in the world series). He had the highest slugging percentage in 2010. Miguel Cabrera comes up often in the important stat categories as well: he slugged .622 to Hamilton's .633. The freaky outlier hitting award goes to Jose Bautista, who had the third highest slugging in the majors, while posting a gawdy .357 isolated power rating. Votto was the big slugger in the NL this season, followed very closely by Carlos Gonzalez and Albert Pujols. Konerko also had a wow-that-came-from-out-of-nowhere type of season, with the 7th best slugging %. Tulowitzky showed himself as an extremely valuable shortstop with the 8th highest slugging (albeit, he's at Coors). Beltre, Dunn, L. Scott, and Cano also bashed the hell out of the ball in '10. Beltre had by far his highest SLG% season since 2004 (which was his outlier year).

An alternate way of looking at offense, kind of similar to RBIs is Runs Created. An interesting note for Cardinals fans: Pujols and Votto were tied in wRC for the lead in the majors. I'm beginning to think Albert perhaps should win MVP (trying not to be biased here!). Holliday was ahead of Prince Fielder in wRC for 9th in MLB. After that the dropoff here for the Cardinals is pretty bad, since next is Rasmus for third best on the Cardinals (barely makes top 70 in MLB). 

Which two teams have not one, but two, top 10 major league hitters (by wOBA)? If you guess the Cardinals and the Rockieshere are your internet dollars. The Cardinals with Pujols and Holliday, and the Rockies with Gonzalez and Tulo, should be set for a while (given, of course, that Pujols re-signs!). Hamilton and Votto are the best hitters, one for each league even. If OPS is more your thing, baseball-reference.com has OPS+, which is an adjusted OPS (more complicated formula, park adjusted on base plus slugging %). This stat prefers Cabrera over Hamilton, but still has Votto first in the NL. 

 

At this point, I am having some trouble with formatting. This seems to happen every few fanposts, an inexplicable format change from out of the blue.

The Lucky You, Wait for Regression! Awards go to Josh Hamilton and Carlos Gonzalez for their ridiculous BABIPs

(Bautisa's BABIP was so ridiculously low that I'm not sure if he should be considered). The Sleeper Award goes to

Shin Shoo Choo again, with a .388 wOBA and over .400 OBP. The Golden Dinger goes to Bautista and Pujols, with

54 and 42 home runs, respectively.  I am still at a loss to explain how Jose Bautista can have 12 more home runs

than everyone else, especially after hitting only 59 home runs total in his career from 2004 to 2009. HE

ALMOST DOUBLED HIS CAREER HOME RUN TOTALS IN ONE YEAR! Unbelievable.

 

Another aspect of the game, perhaps not as flashy as the home run, but related to on base percentage, is speed. Players that can flat out run fast are a good way to help round out a team. Since Fangraphs has a way of quantifying a player's running abilities, called Speed, and of course, stolen base totals, we can figure out who were the most blazingly fast ballplayers in the major leagues. That list can be found here. Carl Crawford is still very fast... I wonder how his .342 BABIP relates. Brett Gardner, Austin Jackson, Michael Bourn and uh, Drew Stubbs round out the top 5. The Cardinals didn't show much in the way of Speed rating (4th lowest in the majors), except for the extra smooth outfielder, Colby Rasmus. Juan Pierre and Michael Bourn were both prolific base pilferers, leading the leagues in stolen bases. Rajai Davis, Brett Gardner, Carl Crawford and Ichiro were all very very good at the lost art of base stealing as well. The Cardinals on the other hand, were among the worst teams, with only 79 stolen bases, while being caught 41 times. The most obvious fixes to the team's offense are plate discipline and to a lesser extent, quickness and savvy on the basepaths. 

Poll
How would you repair the offense?
try to play the faster players on the team more often (i.e. Rasmus, Boog, Chief Justice, etc. or add more players with speed to the roster)
10 votes
cease immediately with the "be aggressive" hitting philosophy, work on taking a base, as well as do away with ineffective tweaks to a player's hitting style (theoretically)
29 votes
do not sign pitching, sign more effective hitters to replace 2B and/or RF if possible
19 votes
oh shit, McGwire is back
1 votes
glad McGwire is returning, I think he can improve upon last season's questionable results
8 votes
wait til next year, team BABIP will be up, the middle infield will be less unlucky, Jon Jay will be fine in right field, WE NEED MORE PITCHING
16 votes

83 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 21 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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We were above average on the basepaths

According to BP, Cards were 5th on EqBRR in NL. We were pretty bad in basestealing(-8.49 EqSBR), but generally performed well in other baserunning categories and ended up with a positive score(+1.4).

Cardinals fan from Korea

by FreeRedbird on Oct 27, 2010 11:34 PM EDT reply actions  

perhaps there is a lot of fluctuation in the speed factors in different types of statistics and analysis methods

I got the general impression that we were one of the slower teams, and we goofed a lot on the basepaths (this could be a subjective bias, being a fan of a particular team). it’s hard to say… we might not be the 4th worst in the majors, but we could definitely improve in that area. could add a few wins over a whole season.

"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 28, 2010 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

now with grammar corrections!

"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 28, 2010 1:24 AM EDT reply actions  

The Cardinals on the other hand, were among the worst teams, with only 79 stolen bases, while being caught 41 times.

That is generally pretty appalling. It’s on the absolute cusp of being “just about neutral” (in terms of value gained through steals – value lost through CS, although in reality I think it’s a slight loss overall, by conventional wisdom of 70-75% being the break-even point), and yet only 120 attempts. Pretty pitiful.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Oct 28, 2010 8:12 AM EDT reply actions  

it really is

when your team is doing that poorly and it’s better just to not steal at all, you are either super slow or just not getting good jumps, etc

"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 28, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

How many of those CS were botched hit and runs, though?

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Oct 31, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

since #2 & #5 were the same thing, i voted for #5 because it didn't have as many votes

some where i saw a story about how batista changed his swing in order to hit inside fastballs, and for some reason the league didn’t get the memo to not throw him inside fastballs & thats why he almost doubled his career home run totals & hit a lot more than anyone else.

All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away

by gdm426 on Oct 29, 2010 3:43 AM EDT reply actions  

how are they the same thing?

it didn’t seem like McGwire was preaching taking walks, seemed like he was mostly just aping Larussa’s be aggressive thing, and trying to get people to hit like he does.

"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 29, 2010 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

mcgwire preached taking walks.....

i thought this was a well-known fact…(and we improved on that from last year..)

by stlcardsfan4 on Oct 30, 2010 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was looking at OBP

2009 and 2010 are both .332 OBP (middle of the pack)

as far as walk rate, the Cards raised that by .1% from 2009 to 2010, so not much improvement

"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 31, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

league wide OBP was down

look at league averages… relative to the league averages, we improved slightly

by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 2, 2010 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

inconsequential

basically the same

"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 2, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's a telling thing that Pujols is our stolen-base leader

and I’m not sure why more hasn’t been made of it. It’s a clear sign of how unbalanced this team is. A smart move right now would be trading John Jay to the Nationals for Nyjer Morgan.

by peppermartin on Oct 30, 2010 7:01 AM EDT reply actions  

I see this as a big "who cares"

I sort of see stolen bases as a tradeoff with OBP. If you have a lot of guys who can get on base well, then you don’t need stolen bases all that much. The logic being that if you’re getting guys on base regurlarly, there’s little reason to risk taking them off the basepaths with stolen base attempts.

As to the team being unbalanced, I don’t think I agree. This is not the first year that Pujols has led the team in stolen bases. He’s also led the team in SBs in 2005 and 2009. I don’t think you can say either of those teams were unbalanced. I would say those teams had lots of guys that got on base.

This year, we just had lots of bad luck with OBP – Schumaker, Molina, and Ryan all had down years. They’ll bounce back to varying degrees next year.

by lightbulb on Oct 30, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

aaaaahh shaddap

actually, I suppose you have a point. If you look at the 2010 team stats, there’s no clear correlation between stolen bases and run production. San Francisco, Minnesota and Atlanta were in the bottom 5 of stolen bases.

That said – what would it hurt to have one or two guys who could steal at least 20+ bags a year. To me, it’s sort of like having an intimidating linebacker to throw off the QB’s concentration.

by peppermartin on Oct 30, 2010 12:42 PM EDT reply actions  

plus Nyjer Morgan isn't very good at stealing bases efficiently

he’s stolen 34 bases and got caught 17 times… that is terrible…. i think its been proven that you need to have 75% chance to be safe in order to make the risk….

he’s safe 66% of the time which is below average and hardly worth the risk of stealing

by stlcardsfan4 on Oct 30, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, the work has been done I believe

Maybe they compared the run values of a stolen base with the negative run value of a caught stealing or something?
Anyway, the thing I hate most about stolen bases is that they cost more than a normal out. Instead of a missed opportunity to get on base, you lose a base that you already had before you decided to try stealing. It’s bad enough to give up outs when you don’t need to, but when you go further and give away hard-earned non-outs it’s infuriating to me.

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Oct 30, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

That number is dependent on the in-game situation, but yeah

9th inning of a tie game, you can get away with a lot less than that.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Oct 31, 2010 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

so Hamilton's hitting abilities came crashing down

how much was this due to regression?

to change the subject, here’s the poll results:

most people think that the team needs to be more patient at the plate, and needs to relax a bit

second most popular suggestion is that the team needs to go along with Mozeliak’s plan, and sign more offense

16% voted that the team needs to sign and bolster the pitching staff, and that the offense will fall into place next season with more regular BABIP numbers and better defense

12% voted that the team is quite slow, and that it would benefit from gaining in speed… playing players like Colby Rasmus, Brendan Ryan, and Jon Jay (plus potential future signees) would change the dynamic and allow more runs to score due to quicker athletes

the rest of the people voted on McGwire, and figures that he can do better next season (it is, after all, his first season, and things can change fast)

"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 7, 2010 2:26 AM EDT reply actions  

Interesting thought on Hamilton

Part of my feels like anybody batting close to .360 should have a way higher OBP than that… I think that’s because I am so thoroughly spoiled by having Albert Pujols on my favorite team.
It’ll be interesting to see if he can maintain the very very high average. Even Albert, who has had a couple seasons with BA that high, can’t come close to that every season, and has a couple “pedestrian” seasons merely in the .310-.320 range.

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Nov 9, 2010 9:44 AM EST up reply actions  

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