St. Louis Cardinals Prospect Ranking #1-#10

This is the part of the year I hate. When the season is over and we don't make the playoffs (or we're eliminated early) and it's still too early for a hot stove and all there is to do is sit and watch other teams live the dream. Personally, this is the time of year I find the most solace in prospecting. Better to look to the future than to have to reflect on the stillborn child that was this season. 

Unfortunately, this Cardinals system still isn't a good one. While I definitely like the direction that Jeff Luhnow has taken the organization in terms of drafting, international signing and player development, we're still in the early stages of recovery. There are, of course, no real elite prospects on here besides Shelby Miller and he's still far far away from the big club. This is, however, a much better look for our system than its low point at the end of 2009, when Colby Rasmus, Brett Wallace and Chris Perez were all graduated, traded or graduated then traded. Back then, the only real breakout candidate in A ball was Robert Stock.

Now in 2010, Shelby has a year of dominance under his belt, we have another good first round pick, and a whole bunch of new prospects from our most recent draft and the Dominican, ranging from intriguing to possibly elite. So, without further ado...

#1. Shelby Miller - 1st Round, 2009 - Quad Cities

                The easiest pick by far. Shelby was good in all the ways we were hoping for him to be this season. I’ve seen various criticisms of Miller for not going deep into games or not being promoted to more difficult competition but it’s clear that the system is trying a careful, considerate approach. His peripherals are excellent, with a ridiculous K/9 of twelve and four to one K/BB ratio. That, along with unflappable poise and a plus-plus fastball that sits in the mid-nineties is precisely what I was hoping to see from a kid who just turned twenty a week ago. The curve has the makings of a plus pitch and the change is coming along as well. The ceiling here is something like Justin Verlander.

#2 . An Austin Wilson-shaped void, I mean, Zach Cox - 1st Round 2010 - Gulf Coast League

                Zach Cox was a pretty good pick for where we got him and he’s a fast mover who plays at a position of organizational weakness. Despite that, he wasn’t a gimme for this ranking. I’m always a bit weary of guys labeled as having "doubles power", but at least he doesn’t seem to be a big risk of losing his premium position status and going in the direction of Brett Wallace. The traditional comp here would be Dan Uggla, but I think he’ll hit more like a left-handed Martin Prado. My goal for him in the upcoming season would be to end up in AAA where he can vie for the starting 2b job in 2012. It’s not clear whether the organization is going to try to keep him at second or move him to third, but either way, we need him here in St. Louie and quick.

#3. Carlos Matias/Martias/Matinez/Martinez - International 2010 - Dominican Summer League

                My research says that not only does Martiasnez’s fastball run in the upper 90s with good control and cutting action, but it also has restored the vision of several blind Dominican children and leaves a trail of gold coins wherever it is thrown. He’s had some identity issues before and I’d like to see him play American ball before I fully buy into him. But if he’s anywhere remotely close to as good as Ben Badler described him, he could conceivably shoot up to the top of these rankings. Yes, above Shelby Miller. Don’t believe me? Here’s a quote from Badler’s write-up when we signed him: "Between the velocity and cutting action on his fastball, it is a true 80 pitch on the 20-80 scouting scale, already one of the best fastballs at any level of baseball". Holy Christ. Ben’s effusiveness seems to be supported by the numbers Matinezias has put up in the Dominican Summer League: a K/BB of 5.57 and a K/9 of 11.89 over 59 IP. All at the (supposed) age of 18. He’s a bit small and skinny, at 6’0, 160 lbs. So for a comp… who knows? Pedro Martinez? The secret pitching alter-ego of Amaury Marti Cazana? Wait a second… Marti… Matias… Martinez…  Hmmmm...

#4. Eduardo Sanchez - International 2005 - Memphis

                A fireballing fastball/slider type closer, like Brad Lidge back before Albert Pujols broke his soul. Good command and ready for the major leagues. Our system has done a fairly good job of filling the bullpen with young live arms and upside but Sanchez is the best of ‘em. He looked so polished at the Futures Game that it was hard to understand why we didn’t bring him up immediately. Relief pitchers aren’t the most exciting prospects but I sure as hell feel better knowing we have Sanchez ready to go rather than having to sign some Brian Fuentes type who would inevitably be a payroll drag and eventually be replaced by a prospect pitcher anyway.

#5. Matt Carpenter - 13th Round 2009 - Springfield

                I’m a Matt Carpenter believer. The guy oozes polish when he comes up to bat, picking and choosing his pitches and unleashing on the right ones. It’s a pleasure to watch. He really only has 10-15 HR power, but we could definitely use a nice healthy dose of OBP in our lineup, and Matt’s got it in spades. The only question here is the defense which gets mixed reviews but if he can post an OBP around .380 and play average third base, he could have a long career. This might seem like an aggressive ranking for him but he gets a major bump because I think he’s ready for the big club right now. Here’s an old school comp for ya: how about Kevin Seitzer, former Royals third baseman and current Royals hitting coach. Go ahead, look him up, I’ll wait.

#6. Oscar Taveras - International 2008 - Johnson City

                Another import from the DSL, 18 year old Oscar Taveras turned heads at Johnson City this year with a .322/.362/.526 line. People are excited about this guy. Luhnow is excited about this guy. Baseball America ranked him as the fourth best prospect in the Appalachian League, right above baby Delino DeShields. He’s a toolsy centerfielder but I haven’t heard much about the defense yet. He also doesn’t walk much and his swing looks a little weird to me. At this point, I’m done trying to give comps for everyone, as I haven’t really felt strongly about the ones I’ve given so far but Taveras could have a Colby-like breakout.

#7. Cody Stanley - 4th Round 2010 - Johnson City

                After being drafted in the fourth round, Cody Stanley had no problems hitting in the Appy League. Although he was a touch old for the league at 21, his .321/.380/.498 line looks very good for a catcher. His defense was something of a question when we picked him, especially his ability to hold the running game. He’d had good results so far, but scouts questioned how his release would translate to pro-ball.  Stanley managed to continue throwing out baserunners at a well above average level. I think he’ll be at least an average major league defender, perhaps better. He can even run well. He’s a complete player (not the same as a 5-tool player) and I think he can move through the system fairly quickly.

#8. Lance Lynn - 1st Round 2008 - Memphis

                Lynn’s 2010 season was more of a lateral step. He spent the whole year at Memphis where his numbers took a significant drop. At one point, he had fallen off my top 10 entirely. By the end of the season, however, Lynn seemed to be figuring things out, including a breath-taking 16 strikeout postseason start. As a major leaguer, he looks like a #4 or #5 fastball/change-up type who sits in the high eighties to low nineties. His stuff isn’t electric but fits in well with the organization’s sinkerballing philosophy and could excel under Dave Duncan. He still needs a little more time in the PCL and could be inducing more groundballs but I expect his results next season will be good enough for a September call-up and a shot in the rotation in 2012.

#9. Deryk Hooker - 7th Round 2007 - Palm Beach

                The numbers are good, the stuff is good, the age is appropriate. The only possible qualm here is that the dude likes to get high.  Regardless, the drugs weren’t a problem in 2010, another successful season for Hooker which propelled him up to A+ ball. The repertoire is in the Adam Wainwright style (though I’m not saying he’ll be that good): low 90s fastball and a changeup to compliment the centerpiece, a wicked curveball. The polish is coming. So far, Hooker’s minor league numbers look good from the bottom up: in 268 IP since 2007, Hooker has put up a 3.09 ERA, 10.1 K/9 and 3 BB/9. Hooker just needs to keep truckin’ and he could make a good #3 starter in the not too distant future.

#10. Tyrell Jenkins - 1st Round 2010 - Johnson City

                Right now, Tyrell Jenkins is all ceiling. I really like it when the Cardinals draft for ceiling but to make your way up my organizational rankings, you have to earn it. That said, Jenkins could be a #1 starter one day and there’s only so far someone with that kind of potential could fall in my list. His fastball sits at about 92-93 with good movement and he has the makings of a slider and change-up. What you are buying into here is the frame and the athleticism. Tyrell has all the projectability in the world and a good, loose delivery.  He’s as raw as they come, having never completely focused on baseball and his control is mediocre right now but if you like the star potential, Tyrell Jenkins is for the dreamers. 

Stay tuned for #11 - #20 coming soon...