the last pennies in the jar

Gimme Freese, Church and whatever reliever we could still afford. I would love to see Smoltz back, but I’ve got to believe he’d take up too much of our remaining payroll, regardless of his role on the team.

More starting pitching is always nice, but I don’t really think our rotation is the biggest weak spot on the team right now. There were plenty of hot streaks for random hitters throughout last season, but our offense was rarely clicking last year. Holliday helps, but we can’t expect him to play at his 2nd half of 09 levels.

aren’t they?

i hope all the people who’ve complained about the site lacking content recently have read this!

In other news, there is one area I’m not convinced about, and that’s projecting Lopez’s ability to sustain his 2008/2009 performance using his LD% and xBABIP (which I believe looks at batted ball types). I’m not sure I believe too much that the Fangraphs batted ball types are wholly accurate, and it remains a subjective classification (at least until HitFX is properly implemented?) as to what constitutes a GB, a FB and a LD, and I wouldn’t put much stock in its predictive value or its ability to accurately paint a picture of Lopez’s hitting during the last two years. I still think a significant drop in his BABIP is likely.

That said, if he’s available in the $3m range, we should definitely be in on that.

I think the last couple of bargain signings can be a real wealth-builder, from a GM/club standpoint. Lopez has a chance to become a type-A free agent after this year, and could be worth a couple of wins as the next spiezio. Signing him now costs us nothing but money, and he could be traded at the deadline (like derosa last year), or he could replace Skip or Freese if one gets injured.

Thing is, there’s almost certainly a Ludwick or Pena or Garrett Jones or Allen Craig out there, somewhere, too. That’s the guy we need to identify and sign to an MiLB contract. Problem is figuring out who that guy is. Hopefully it was Brad Penny. Hope it wasn’t Brett Myers. In reality, it’s probably someone none of us would recognize…

Did Jimmy ever officially retire? I would be for having him as our LH bench bat… In other over the hill news, I wouldn’t mind signing Brian Giles to a minor league contract. In my mind it would seem to make sense to roll the dice on the next Larry Walker/Will Clark/Eric Davis. Old dude with one more left in him? Or they could be the next Juan Gonzalez - old dude without one more. If not, I would be comfortable with Jay/Craig….

if sheets can be had at six mil.

b/c I feel comfortable that he could play 3B passably in the event that Freese falls on his face and he could play the OF corners in the event that he doesn’t. Perhaps Lugo can do that as well or even Tyler Greene but I think we’d have to be able to count on Freese pretty well before leaving Greene as the fall back. I like Gross or Church in the OF. Church hasn’t been the same since his concussion but he has more upside than Gross. Gross is a very good defensive player though and likely would be cheaper than Church as a result.

I’d keep my powder dry for now. Save the money until we know:

1. will our current staff hold up
2. how well does the rest of division play
3. how many teams are having financial problems and may have to dump salary (mets, dodgers are looking like they are in down-sizing mode, could be more)

We only need to win the division, not lap the field. If Cubs play up to form, then we can look at adding a pitcher.

Having said that , I’d like to get Martinez as fifth starter more than Smoltz — would even consider a two year deal

1) A couple of years ago, I outlined why I think Garland would have been a good signing for the Cardinals, namely the innings eating and slightly lower contract than big named starting pitchers – same as is being used now as arguments for signing him, and got universally ripped for it. Why is there such a sentiment now that he would be a much better signing than before? Is this sentiment present just because he would come a bit cheaper?

2) I agree that a #5/ long man in the pen is really a need for this team – with all of the injury concerns in the rotation. One of the things that our 100+ win teams had was a stable rotation. Remember, we didn’t have the greatest starters in the world (Marquis, Suppan) but they threw consistent innings, thus giving the players in our bullpen defined roles. Smoltz or Garland, IMO, are the best options to do that.

3) I think that many people are forgetting that we have Lugo for, basically, free this year as well. I know that I did until being reminded Thursday or Friday in the comments section. That being said, I still believe signing Lopez, to give us an infield of Freese, Ryan, Schu, and Albert – with Lopez and Lugo backing up – wouldn’t be bad at all. We’d have the same two catchers, with Holliday, Rasmus, Ludwick in the OF and (hopefully) Craig backing up with Ludwick as the 2nd CF and Schu as the 3rd.

Having these players would give us a lot of flexibility, like TLR likes. Lopez can play a little corner OF in a pinch (and hopefully ONLY in a pinch). The same goes for Julio Lugo. Freese could, ideally, be used as a LF if needed as well. Craig could, again ideally, be used as a 3B as a last resort, too.

I realize none of these are LH options off the bench, so the second OF/3B/1B (if possible) could be a bigger LH bat. What does everyone think it would cost for: Branyan, Catalanotto, or Damon – and to a much lesser extent Ankiel, Brian Giles, Thome, and Geoff Jenkins?

how a perfect scenario plays out: Smoltz begins as fifth starter, Jaime gets more seasoned in the minors; once Franklin’s inevitable late-inning suck manifests itself, Smoltz realizes the detriment to the team and agrres to move to closer, Franklin moves to set up role where damage can be minimized more when he sucks, and Garcia slides into the fifth starter role just as we’re beginning to pull away in the division, thereby giving him some low-pressure MLB experience. It’s not a huge sample size, but all of Smoltz’s peripherals last year show that he could be a real shutdown pitcher for one inning. In his first time through the order, he had a K/BB of 4.22 and was holding opponents to a sub .700 OPS. Okay, he still got hit hard by lefties, but I’d much rather see him out there with the game on the line than Franklin.

I agree, sign Smoltz. He can start, spot start and close in the event that Franklin breaks down. Makes the most sense. John Jay = Ryan Church, so why spend that money? David Freese = Lopez so why spend that money?

I would rather the Cards have excess pitching as I think the offense/defense will be there

the market doesn’t like Pinata.

Wonder if we could get him on a Beltre-type deal… Of course, Pineiro’s value will never be higher. Tough luck for Pinata…

We don’t need another 3B. Freese projects to be good enough over anything else we could get. Worst to worst Craig can also play 3B. And don’t tell me the organization doesn’t want him there when we have an OFer playing 2B. But if we do acquire someone like Lopez than Lugo absolutely has to go. He would have no place on the team. Lopez is essentially a better Lugo all around. Trade Lugo to the Padres who need a stop gap short stop for whatever.

The backup CFer position is absolutely pathetic on the free agent market. I have literally looked at everyone for a fanpost I was going to do and none of them stood out. When you factor in defense and cost Jon Jay is essentially equal to all of them. I am awfully high on Jon Jay and still am not sure if he ready or not for the show.

To me we have a lot of players to fill all our remaining gaps from within. They are all above replacement level also. I think the best plan of action is to roll our remaining money on one single player. A high upside starting pitcher. Whoever is left of the group of Bedard, Sheets, Smoltz, Chien-Ming Wang, or Pedro Martinez in that order. Wait till March to see who is left.

A lot of talk about resigning Smoltz but I think he is drawing to much interest. It seems at least 5 or 6 teams are interested in his service.

that what you call the last pennies in the jar are what he calls bullets.

Felipe Lopez seems like the perfect signing for this club. We can hide him in the outfield, he can play a decent 2B or 3B, he’s probably even better than Aaron Miles at SS although we wouldn’t want him there. He’s a higher OBP Derosa, with a few less homers, for about half the price. I don’t see what the issue is here. If he’s available for 1Y$3M we should just get that done and stop talking about it.

I am intrigued with the Garland talk tom — I think he’s an interesting choice, but signing him really depends more one what you think of the other options I believe. Smoltz is likely to be a better pitcher over 100 innings or so, as are Sheets and Bedard. The question is, do you think that we need 220 IP from a 5th starter who doubles as injury insurance, or would you rather have a higher upside 100-120 IP from someone like Smoltz or Sheets, who might also end up able to throw 150-180 innings depending on health. You also have Garcia/Boggs to think about — if you sign Garland you’re relegating Boggs to the bullpen (which may not be a bad thing anyway), and Garcia to what amounts to a full season at Memphis barring an injury to another pitcher.

Garland is an interesting choice for Duncan as well. He’s a soft thrower, doesn’t walk a ton of guys, gets a lot of ground balls, but not an inordinate amount of them. Maybe he’d be better here with our fantastic defenders and a park that suppresses home runs.

If I was Mo, I’d sign Lopez now at $3M for 2010, then make the annual Matt Clement offer to Ben Sheets. If he takes it, perfect, if not, look at signing Smoltz for $5M plus incentives for innings to bring it to $7M, or Garland for $3M or so.

if Freese is to be considered a viable ‘free’ option, then I think Boggs should be considered in the same vein as a starter. He has the arm for it. His major problem was his high walk rate. If Dave Duncan is supposed to be about getting pitchers to give up velocity for location and movement, then I’d rather him work with Mitchell Boggs than waste money on Erik Bedard.

gone to the ’Stros for $5 million on a one year deal + a mutual option. (Sorry if this is already over in the hot stove thread.)

playing our hand with Freese at 3rd (if he ain’t ready now, then when?) and taking a shot with Craig as the 4th OF bat. It’s no secret that I am in love with Allen Craig, even as a third basemen I think he’s more than capable. On the mbDAB (Memory-Based Defensive Assessment Barometer) Allen Craig never once made my smack myself in the forehead on a bonehead play at 3rd here in Springfield. At least, not even half as much as Pete Kozma does on a regular basis.

My ideal scenario right now is to put Freese at 3rd, Craig as the 4th OF, sign Jon Garland, and focus the rest on bringing in one potentially solid bullpen candidate.

also with multiple needs. I’d be interested in a future comparison of what they do with it vs. what Mo does.

what do y’all think? unfair comparison? last gasp of hot stove excitement? or is it just wrong to compare anything with a guy named Jed?

could get Lopez & Smoltz for about $8M, I think that would be a great move. The Cards could use Lopez b/c of his versatility, and he wasn’t bad for us a couple years ago. In addition, the Cards could use him as a switch-hitter since they only have 2 lefties (Schu & Raz) on their roster right now.

The more and more Opening Day gets closer, the more & more I’m getting excited about 2010. We’ve got a lot of studs on our ballclub, and I think we’ll be better this year than last. I’m hopeful that the guys that need to stay healthy do, and I’m hopeful the Cards can figure out their solution to 3rd base/5th starting pitcher soon. I think our bullpen will be alright.

OT: I’m playing MLB 09 The Show again, and I just played a game against the Brewers, Gallardo vs. Waino. I won 8-3. Highlights: Waino goes 7 2/3, 8 hits, 1 run, 5 K’s – also goes 2 for 4 with an RBI at the plate. Lud goes 3 for 4, Yadi goes 3 for 4 with a homer and 2 RBIs. Got 6 runs off Gallardo in first four innings, 4 runs in the 1st. Also, today’s my 18th, and so far it’s been pretty good.

Seriously, I’d much rather see the Cardinals blow their wad on pitchers with pontential upside than position players that offer little or no upside to what we have. Let Fresse have a shot at 3rd; use a Rasmus/ Craig platoon in the OF (with Luddy moving to center against lefties).

this makes it even more obvious to me that we should be done signing position players. we need more pitching imo, sheets or valverde would be nice! of course, valverde would be just as nice not signed too because of the 1st round pick (which is a crapshoot). if jon jay continues to rip the ball in ST he should make the team as 5th OF, and Craig utility guy.

how do you see the bullpen shaping up right now?

the 2010 season with three at home against…. Colorado?? The jeniuses at mlb strike again.

I think we’re also going to need five starters down the stretch this time. They’ve got us playing on 42 of the last 44 days of the season.

The guy put up a wOBA of .328 in Memphis last year. I understand that he’s good defensively, but he looks like he could be a near automatic out.

Remaining money in the budget could go to an albert signing bonus to take some of the burden off the 2011 or 2012 budget by keeping the total value of the new contract high.

I think there’s a solid argument that one of the four starters mentioned (and I have to take a closer look at pedro) is a good use of $, but these other moves may just be scraping after a win or two.

to not show the Great American Launching Pad. fuck the nfl, the lights aren’t even on & like anyone watching this crap cares it’s right next door. i hate the nfl so much