Matt Holliday! Five hours later
by DanUpBaby on Jan 5, 2010 11:31 PM EST
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PrintThis is a lot of Matt Holliday. And yet—if you were to tell me that the Cardinals had signed Matt Holliday to a six year, $102 million contract and also agreed to burn $17 million in a giant bonfire prior to the start of the 2017 season, I think I would be singing John Mozeliak's praises at this very moment.
So some of my reservations might be unwarranted and irrational, and there's enthusiasm there, even if it's tempered. Matt Holliday is a really good hitter right now, and he will probably remain a really good hitter for at least four years of this deal, and that's awesome. Re: the Hot Stove, now we're left to build dreamily cheap platoons in the bullpen and at third base, where there is sadly less Jack Cust discussion involved.
Edit: the promised Provisional Thoughts follow the jump.
- It is more or less self-evident, but the Cardinals are now committed to running expensive teams out there indefinitely—while three players are combining to make more than $45 million, as will be the case in 2010 and 2011, there's simply no reasonable case to be made for "cheaping out", even in the pretty expensive, basically meaningless open-the-DeWallet sense of the word. A team that's paying that same $45 million to two players once Pujols's existing contract expires is not being run on a mid-market budget.
- In the comments section, lboros mentions the big bottleneck of 2012, in which a lot of the Cardinals' current payroll advantages crumble into dust. I have to imagine this means payroll's going up, but it won't be going up enough to keep the entirety of the Cardinals' current core together. Mozeliak will probably be watching, say, Daniel Descalso especially closely this year. David Freese might not start the season as the Cardinals' third baseman of the present—I expect to hear more about Joe Crede and the other Freese-like options at the periphery of the market—but it would be a boon to the Cardinals if he could end the season in the role.
- In the end... I like it. Holliday is a better hitter, a more consistent hitter, than the two cautionary tales that this deal most closely resembles. Alfonso Soriano, whose sudden decline frankly makes no sense to me, was signed coming off a career year with the bat that had been prefaced by consecutive seasons as a bog-average, frustratingly incomplete hitter. So too with Vernon Wells—in each case there were bookend seasons that seemed to promise a rare talent but really obscured warning signs that were already present. And all of those purported breakout seasons—Soriano in Washington, Wells in 2006—they're all nearly as valuable as any of Matt Holliday's last four seasons.
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crap
right as I posted this I saw that lboros had the same idea, and posted his own overflow thread, complete with thoughts that I did not get the chance to read. Now it is gone, but I am hoping that by so summoning him in this first comment I can get said thoughts into this thread.
impeccable timing!
we even used the same picture . . . . .
and we have the same thoughts. i agree w/ this completely: “if you were to tell me that the Cardinals had signed Matt Holliday to a six year, $102 million contract and also agreed to burn $17 million in a giant bonfire prior to the start of the 2017 season, I think I would be singing John Mozeliak’s praises.” judging from guayzimi’s contest in the fanposts, most people thought 6/100 was about the right price . . . . the 7th year sucks, but it doesn’t ruin the deal. it just downgrades it from “very good” to “good.”
the other thing that was in my post was this: in 2012, the cards might have $90m or more committed to 7 players. Albert will be in the first year of his deal, so put him down for $25m. holliday will be making $17m, and lohse is guaranteed $12m. then they hold options on carpenter at $15m, wagonmaker at $9m, and yadi at $7m. plus colby will be in his first arb-eligible year and (we hope) good enough to command $3m to $4m. Schumaker will be a 1st year free agent, Ryan will be arb eligible . . . . cost control goes way out the window that year.
In other words, they’ll have to decline an option on a core player in 2012, and/or dump Lohse’s salary (which probably should happen sooner rather than later).
i wouldn't bet any important sum of money on chris still being healthy in 2012.
i wouldn’t say it to his face, maybe, but it is true. of all the core players likely to get that option declined, carp has to top the list.
still, that’s a lot of scratch, even w/o $15m for carp.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
agreed --- there's a good chance they'd decline carp
with or without their other payroll commitments. either way, it’d be nice if they could dump the lohse contract too.
oh, no question.
i have yet to concoct an alternative that doesn’t involve hitmen.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
the player holliday most reminds me of
is bobby abreu -- high average, high OBP hitter with 25-homer power throughout his 20s. abreu remains an excellent player with a high OBP, but his power has declined steadily since his age 30 season. i think we’ll see the same out of holliday -- continued high OBPs, but slugging avgs dipping into the .480 range by his age 32 or 33 season and the .450 range by age 35. the last two or three years of the deal he’ll be a $10m player, making $17m a year -- an overpay, but hardly a disastrous one.
Nice comparison
There is likely to be an analog on defense as well. Still the Cards should see some significant surplus value in the first 2-3 years of the deal further mitigating the overpay in the contract’s later years.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
The only reason I'm more hopeful on Holliday than Abreu
is that, if my memory serves right, Abreu’s skillset was at least somewhat speed-dependent—I would imagine some of that slugging decline was derived from him no longer being able to leg out singles into doubles.
(and now that I’ve looked it up, it seems that his sb rate has not declined as quickly as his HR rate, for what THAT’S worth)
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
holliday's skillset is somewhat speed dependent.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 7:09 AM EST up reply actions
I believe (w/o looking) that Abreu's slugging decline can be traced to hitting fewer dingers....
Speculation why that is…age, lack of “enhancement,” change in ballparks, some combination of these, etc.
I actually see Holliday aging differently. Holliday has much more of a power hitter’s stroke than Abreu (IMO). Holliday ( I think) will hold onto his power longer and may even see a uptick, at least in the next few years, in his number of homers.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jan 6, 2010 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
Holliday's never won a HR Derby though!!!
/sarcasm
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
throwaway prediction first seen here -
Holliday will win the 2010 HR Derby.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jan 6, 2010 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
Even if he's healthy...
I betcha he’d take one for the team and sign a friendly extension a la Rolen this year with the Reds…
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
Payback
For the 07 & 08?
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
The Cardinals have to make the playoffs the next 2 years to make some money
Look at the Phillies also. Just a few years ago their payroll was in the 85 million range and now is $140M.
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 5, 2010 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, I think it Dan in the main post the other day made this point
If the Cardinals are going to give Holliday a huge deal, they have to either raise payroll or make an effort to build from within. If they can do one of both of those things, then this deal will work fine – however, if they don’t we’re screwed.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 5, 2010 11:55 PM EST up reply actions
110-120 million payroll
And a youth movement would benefit the Cardinals a lot. We were headed in the right direction with the farm system before we traded a lot of that talent away in the DeRosa and Holliday deals. Get that going again and raise payroll a little, we will be in good shape. If we’re not going to raise payroll, I hope that Lohse has a strong year so we can trade his contract, which is too big IMO. Get some mid-level prospects and shed some payroll. But then if he does play well this year, I don’t know how eager I would be to trade him.
Would it be worth it?
We’d have to get a pretty heft haul for that to work. Assuming Carpenter will be a type A free agent, we’d have to get good enough quality prospects to get those two prospects to make up for that loss, and then we’d could also lose another first rounder assuming the replacement we sign is type A. So we’re losing Carpenter, 2 first rounders and a 1st/2nd rounder. I think letting him become a free agent would net us more than a trade, including the year(s), depending on the option, of Carpenter we wouldn’t lose.
Well then you're delaying the process of getting some solid prospects into the system.
Unless they’re deal would run out by 2011/12, which I doubt it would. And how much would the replacement cost? I can’t see them being much cheaper than Carp, so do we really benefit from that?
like tom s
i just can’t seeing the cardinals picking up carpenter’s option in 2012. even if he is still performing at a high level (and that’s assuming a lot of thing: health, aging well, etc.), the cardinals may simply not be able to afford him, and he would be the obvious choice to go. by far the oldest, highest risk player from the list.
that said, the lohse deal looks worse and worse everyday. i still don’t see any way a team takes on that nasty contract unless he just pitches out of his mind in 2010. even then, would the cardinals still dump him after that, i don’t think so. which would probably be the right move anyway, as i would take out of his mind 2010 lohse and coming off that 2011 lohse over high risk, old 2012 carpenter anyway.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jan 6, 2010 12:06 AM EST up reply actions
Why Assume...
…Pujols at 25 mil? He’s hinted often enough about a ‘hometown discownt’ if the FO shows him they are serious about making the Cards a perennial cowtender – which they have done with the Holliday signing. Clearly you can’t take that to the bank, but I cud see Pujols extended for, say, 20 mil/year. Still a lot, but that extra 5 mil saving give us a bit moore flexibility.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
25 mil/year WOULD be a hometown discount
and i can say with pretty decent certainty that’s at least what he’ll get. can you imagine what he’s worth on the open market? scary to think about.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jan 6, 2010 8:59 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
But the Yanks are out of the bidding...
and that leaves the Angels, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Mets. They’ll pay huge money, but not insane, Arod money. Especially considering that by 2011, everyone will see that the bubble economy is not coming back.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
why are the yankees out of the bidding
NEVAR count them out!
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jan 6, 2010 9:06 AM EST up reply actions
They've got Tex...
and I don’t think either he nor Pujols would accept being the DH. He could play third or left, but those positions are taken by Jeter and ARod. There really is no place for him.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
But Tex could become the DH
It would be stupid, I think, for the Yankees to have two GG first basemen on their team and only have one of them playing the field, but I don’t put anything past them.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
Not all GG 1Bs are created equal, though. . .
Pujols > Texeira > Palmeiro, for instance.
Then there’s the whole tallest midget aspect of the GG 1B moniker.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jan 6, 2010 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
If He's as Team-First..
…as he appears, then he might be moore flexible when it comes to moolah. If he just wants to get paid, period, you’ll see him with the Yankees. I think Albert is bigger/better than that, so I don;t think it’s unreasonable that he would come in somewhat less than market value for the Cards – or perhaps I am being moonumentally naive.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
he wants to play for the cardinals
but he also want to get paid. why do you think he signed an 100 million dollar contract (when they were still somewhat rare) in the first place?
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jan 6, 2010 9:07 AM EST up reply actions
This
careful on the idealizing…
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
Somecow...
..I don’t see Albert Pujols on the bread line making 20 mil a year. So far The Mang’s behavior has not been mercenary-like. I don’t think we have to assume the worst-case scenario with him.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
At the moment, FA wins are going at about $4m per win
let’s just assume this year’s FA signings are slightly anomalous, what with the recession and all, and push them back up to the $4.5m/win region, which is (frankly) a bit of a stretch. Albert’s maybe a 7-win player. That makes him something like $28-31m in value. This is at his absolute peak. He’s going to decline, and he’s going to probably miss a big chunk of at least one season due to needing tommy john surgery.
Paying him $25m/yr now would be fine, we’re probably getting a decent deal there, but paying him that until his late (or even mid) 30s is probably going to be an overpay, IMO. Not an egregious one, but an overpay nonetheless.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 9:19 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe he'd take...
$20 million per for 10 years or so, then $4 million per for the next 20 years. He’ll generate value as a Cardinal emeritus – they’ll put up a statue, fans can tell tales, and there will simply be more tradition. Why not pay him for that?
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
i'd do that
how effing awesome would it be if albert pujols: 4.0 still showed up on your 2038 payroll?
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jan 6, 2010 9:08 AM EST up reply actions
fuck no
that would be an awful deal.
I have zero idea why everyone is keen to pay Albert Pujols a massive deal when he’s 40 years old. Seriously, I love the guy, but if we’re going to have to pay him like $30m/yr (albeit with lots of deferred money), which he’s arguably barely worth NOW, how much is it going to suck in 5 or 6 years when we’re paying the corpse of Matt Holliday and an Albert Pujols who may or may not have his elbow hanging on by a thread and who probably won’t be worth more than 4 wins/yr a combined totaly of nearly $50m?
If he wants a 10-year, guaranteed deal, I’m happy to go as high as maybe, MAYBE $200m for it. But I’m not expecting to yield masses of surplus value from that. I’m not kicking in another $80m (even hugely deferred). Personally, I’d hope he’d sign for ~8 years, maybe something like $20m/yr in total, with some of that frontloaded. I want no part of a $30m/yr long-term deal for any player in baseball, and I want no part of any $200m+ contract for any player in baseball.
I want Pujols to retire a cardinal, but I don’t want that so much that I’d be willing to cripple the franchise for a good half-decade to do it.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 9:13 AM EST up reply actions
I find it hard to believe the ARod contract
isn’t a goal for Pujols.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
This
I heard something about part ownership in the cards too…I wouldn’t mind that at all.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
i think that's against the CBA or law or something
i’m 99% certain that’s not a possibility.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
What about beer distributorships?
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
sounds like a plan...
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Now hold on...
I happen to believe that A-Rod is a flaky guy who is something of an attention whore, but the Texas Rangers offered him that ungodly sum of money in the first place. What in the hell was he supposed to do?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 6, 2010 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Reject it...
whilst admitting everything he’s ever done wrong in his entire life on his way to joining a Franciscan monastery.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
Can he Gregorian chant?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 6, 2010 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
You ain't heard nothin'...
til you’ve heard A-Rod lay down some Salve Sanctus Parens.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Well what is the purpose of your comment?
AZ said he thought A-Rod money was in the realm of possibility for Pujols, and then you call ARod a tool, and somehow it’s not about the money you just felt like calling the guy out. I’m not sure that was really called for, but do what you gotta do I guess.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 6, 2010 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
Or moo what you have to moo?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 6, 2010 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
Centaur, man.
Centaur.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 7, 2010 6:04 AM EST up reply actions
He'll probably take something of a hometown discount...
…but less than about $23M or so would be mighty white. The guy isn’t Gandhi for Pete’s sakes. As was said above me, $25M is a considerable discount considering he’s a about an 8-10 WAR player every year.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 6, 2010 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
He's more like a 7 WAR player
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Just for the record
2003- 9.0 WAR
2004- 7.9
2005- 7.7
2006- 7.7
2007- 7.7
2008- 8.9
2009- 8.4
Fangraphs WAR, so he is more like an 8.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
awh yeah
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2010 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
Baseballprojection.com's WAR has him worth at least 8.2 every year except his first two, which were 6.9 and 5.8
I have heard some of the differences between those two versions of WAR, but would someone like to make a case that one is simply superior? I would guess people lean towards Fangraphs since UZR seems to be more celebrated for defense right now than RZR, but I’m interested in peoples’ opinions on this question.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
OK, I'll be VEP for a minute
you’ve got to figure in regression & injury risk. Guy’s got a bum shoulder. Even if he only gets seriously injured like 5% of the time next year (and you’ve got to imagine the risk is probably higher than that) that trims a good 0.5-1 WAR off what he’s generally done previously in his fully healthy seasons.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 7, 2010 6:07 AM EST up reply actions
Nice to see you again!
A few notes on your subject here:
- I, like others here, don’t see any way the Carpenter option gets picked up in 2012.
- I don’t see Lohse as movable unless they move him this year, as he gets expensive in 2011 and 2012, and with his injury issues last year, I can’t see them moving him prior to the start of the season. I suppose they could eat a $6M out of his last two years, but I’m just not sure that would be a good idea — he’s durable pitcher (last year was his first year ever that he’s missed significant time) and this rotation doesn’t have a lot of those.
I posted in the other thread that three things have to happen for the Cardinals to be competitive in the near future, and I’m going to add a fourth here that was the caveat before:
- Rasmus needs to develop into a 4-5 WAR CF (not a stretch given his defense), and the Cards need to lock him up to a Gutierrez/Granderson/Sizemore type contract (4Y/$20M w/5th year team option for $8M or so) after next season.
- The farm needs to develop two position players that can be league regulars in the middle infield or 3B and RF. Which means one of Kozma/Greene/Descalso/Freese has to make the leap, and one of Craig/Henley/Jones has to do it also.
- We need to graduate two of Miller/Boggs/Garcia/Lynn/Ottavino to the rotation in the next couple of seasons so we can bring down the amount of cash we’re spending on the rotation. I don’t think the club can afford to play Russian Roulette on the FA market each season and having some farm hands helps to insure against injury.
- Payroll is going to have to go up to at least $110 – $115M or so from 2012 to 2017. I kinda predicted this at the time of the Holliday trade using a roster matrix to show that a payroll at $100M was not feasible if Holliday was going to be resigned, even at $15M per season. I think Mo and DeWitt knew this going into the negotiations, and with this signing they’ve indicated that payroll will be going up OR Pujols will not be re-signed. I don’t think the latter is even an option for the club, so the former seems likely.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Just for fun...
…which of the young guns do you see making that leap into useful-player land?
I’m taking Daniel Descalso, Allen Craig, and DJ Tools. However, I’m also betting that one of them does it outside of the organization
For arms, I’m taking Boggs as a bullpen arm and Garcia (hoping his arm doesn’t explode) in the short term w/ Miller coming in behind them in a few seasons. That’s my guess, anyway.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 6, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmmmm
If I had to pick three, I’d take:
Daniel Descalso — can play 2B or 3B and is a left handed line drive hitter. I think he’s a good bet to replace Skip next year or the year after.
Jaime Garcia — was the top pitching prospect in the org before Tommy John. I think he’s a middle of the rotation starter.
Mitch Boggs — either as a starter or reliever, he’s going to be productive because of his fastball. I’m hoping for the starter, as that solves more problems, but a 96-97 mph throwing closer with a good breaking ball isn’t horrible either.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Is that next year...
as in the forth coming season? Or 2011?
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
I'm talking by 2012
when Skip is expensive and that is Carp’s option year. If the payroll goes up by $5-$10M in the next couple of years the club should easily be able to stay competitive — it’s post 2012 we could see some issues, and that’s when we’ll need some low cost and cost-controlled impact players.
I’m not high on Craig because he doesn’t seem to have the plate discipline or the contact rate to be a really good player at the big league level. He’s a right handed John Rodriguez I think. Expect few walks and lots of strikeouts from him next season.
I’m skeptical that Jones becomes a productive player for the Cardinals because we have a CF and LF locked up and those are the positions that he’s likely to be valuable at the big league level. He doesn’t have the arm or the bat to play in RF, and I’m beginning to lose faith (as are some scouts) that his power isn’t going to develop. He could very well be Skip Schumaker with worse On base ability, better speed, and better range on defense. That’s not someone you can play in RF at the big league level.
I’d like to see Lynn pitch above AA, but I think #4 starter might be his ceiling.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
FWIW I think we end up filling RF internally in 2012
probably whoever does best out of Craig/Jones/Henley/Jay/Mather. That’s quite a lot of talent, and a few options from both sides of the plate. You’ve got to think there’s a league-average platoon in there somewhere, although I do agree with you about Jones (that he’ll end up being a Skippy-type with less contact and better speed/defense), but that’s probably a fair fit in RF (especially vs RHP) when you have a great hitter in LF and a good hitter with an awesome glove in CF. I also agree about Craig – I think it might take him a while to adjust to MLB (although I think he’ll be better than J-Rod as he’s got more pop) but I don’t expect him to be much better than a good 4th OF/platoon/Speizio type, ultimately.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 7, 2010 6:11 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not that high on Tools
I’m gonna go Freese, Craig, Descalso, Garcia, Lynn (only as a 1-1.5 WAR-type starter) and maybe Boggs.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
I don't really like any of the position players all that much. . .
If I had to rank them, it would probably be:
Freese – I think he’s a good bet to be replacement level or a bit more right now, and with some upside, but not All-Sar upside.
Descalso – A bit uneven record to really count much on him, but I do like his skill set.
Craig – I defer to the scouts here, without really knowing why.
Jones – A long way to go.
Henley – A longer way to go.
Kozma – Literally no upside.
Greene – Not enough contact to succeed at the ML level – he will be lucky if he ever gets called up again.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jan 6, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
Sup?
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
by vexedtechie on Jan 5, 2010 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
[Batman related quote adapted to VEB]
Original located HERE
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
by vexedtechie on Jan 6, 2010 12:58 AM EST up reply actions 34 recs
[whispered so CodyG can't hear]
What a dick!
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
by vexedtechie on Jan 6, 2010 1:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
whispering....?
whoa, I don’t want to know.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
This is not for you. You're batman. Not Lboros.
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
by vexedtechie on Jan 6, 2010 1:01 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
flagged!
how dare you think you’re LB
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
I think that is almost ban worthy
kids these days!!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
almost?
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
gdm is right
one of these days Cody has got to learn his place, might as well be now
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Muchos Thankos.
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
When comments are posted at the same time
Regardless of which one actually got in first, yours will always show up first. I’ve figured this out.
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
Woooo! On a roll! Thanks!
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
this entire thread is comedy gold
rec’s all around
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
That could get dangerous...
someone’s gonna take that to mean rec every comment and make the thread green. Do we really want to see that again?
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
awesome.
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2010 1:31 AM EST up reply actions
that is beautiful
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
AWESOME!!!!!
yeah, that might be the best one yet. good job vexed!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Thanks!
It’d been seemingly FOREVER since I’d done any Photoshop work before today, then I get summoned to throw together a pair of ’shops and both have been received well.
Thanks again!
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
i'd recognize that stance anywhere
but the other kids will never believe it!
Heaven has brick walls and St. Peter is a red bird.
by EinFesteBusch on Jan 6, 2010 3:45 AM EST up reply actions
looks like a LH mang to me...
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
RH mang. Picture originally from the back-end
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
Crazy thing about silhouettes...
…never know which direction the original was taken from
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
I read this story about
A Kirkwood kid and thought you might enjoy it
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 5, 2010 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
I actually got a bit teary over that
tis an emotional day for me
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I'm fairly positive I read it.
Was it posted earlier?
I said:
“Thanks for maing me cry. Good job Kirkwood. I can give credit where it’s due.”
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
I just can't type.
But Freud may have said it was a sign.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Lots o comments today
I personally just felt bad for Seniors of Fox
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 5, 2010 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
my buddy who was there said the whole fox team exhibited pure class
and as I said when I posted it in another thread, i know the stillmans as they’re both in my parish and i played volleyball with their eldest son for a few years back in the day. anyway, they’re one of the nicest families you’ll ever meet and i’m so happy they got to have this moment.
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
Resident malcontented betamale
by slu on Jan 6, 2010 1:39 AM EST up reply actions
So do we still want to fire brian burwell?
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
he gets a reprieve
keep up this kind of work BB.
and why did I read some of the comments those asshats at the PD were leaving?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
alright, what's this thing about?
now i half way want to read it even though i swore i’d never read anything that guy ever wrote again
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
it is a stroy about a special education kid
who finally got to play the last game of his senior year. it really is worth reading
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and why did I read some of the comments those asshats at the PD were leaving?
Glutton for punishment?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 6, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
agreed.
it’s what those despicable kirkwood kids do.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jan 6, 2010 9:00 AM EST up reply actions
I like the contract.
We did bid against ourselves, but the odds of us getting surplus value on this deal are quite high.
Also, Sheetmolopez would have been a good alternative signing; of Carp, Waino, Penny, Lohse, and Garcia, we have exactly zero starting pitchers with good track records of health.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
wainwright and lohse have both been pretty durable
neither have had major arm/shoulder issues, and both have missed time in the last couple of years with slightly freak injuries. I think they’re both more likely to throw 180+ IP than most pitchers, other than the Jon Garland/Javy Vazquez-type freaks who throw 220 year upon year.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 7:13 AM EST up reply actions
I still think we add a starting pitcher and bump Garcia to the minors to begin the year
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I agree with you on this.
And I hope that it is Smoltz. Of course, I’ve been hoping for a Penny/Smoltz/Garcia trio for the rotation slots 4 & 5 for a while.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2010 8:35 AM EST up reply actions
i'll give it to Holliday
he knows how to give an interview that makes me smile (per Fox sports)
“Obviously, with Albert Pujols on the team you have a great opportunity to have a great team,” Holliday told ESPN. “Albert is the best player in the history of baseball in my mind. Hopefully between the two of us we can help do our part to win a World Series.”
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
A question for Matt Holliday
Albert Pujols: Best player ever or best player possible?
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
i would love to see a sabermetrician actually try to tackle the answer to what's the best player possible
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
Resident malcontented betamale
by slu on Jan 6, 2010 1:41 AM EST up reply actions
switch-hitting babe ruth
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
ambidextrous
every 3rd day
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
uh, grizzly adams did have a beard.
Anyway, on the days he isn’t starting, he’d need to play a +15 shortstop, or catch (once someone develops a useful catching performance metrics)
That’s albert’s biggest flaw. I really wish he had gotten TJ and moved back to 3rd base after Rolen left, even if it meant missing half of 2007 (in retrospect, that wouldn’t even have been a huge loss)…
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
win the WS next season
Albert has the surgery the day after the series ends, and does his usual awesome healing, then is back for opening day and our new 3rd baseman
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
See, That Bugs me....
…it should not be a ‘flaw’ that Pujols plays first base.
:=8/
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
why?
it clearly reduces his value. He’d be more valuable if he played anywhere else.
We’re lucky he’s a good first baseman, but playing first base reduces his overall value.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Well, he wasn't always a first baseman
If I remember correctly, that wasn’t even completely settled until we got Rolen, who finally completely displaced him from 3B
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Really?
With all the carping you do about defense, you’re picking Babe Ruth as the best player possible?
I would have gone with Mickey Mantle, prior to his knee injury. Speed, power, hit for average, great defense in CF.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Well, if We're Cherry-Picking...
… cow about Rogers Hornsby? A .400 BA from 1920 – 1925, and a lifetime 1.010 OPS. Teddy Ballgame isn’t too shabby either, lifetime OPS of 1.115.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Hornsby was considered to be a pretty horrible defender by his peers.
Ted Williams was a horrible defender his whole career.
I really believe that if Ted Williams was playing now, sabermatricians would be killing him due to his horrible defense or he’d be a DH.
Barry Bonds should be in the conversation since he was a great LF, but it’s not like LF is an especially desirable defensive position, kinda like Pujols at 1B. You would have to look at A-Rod back when he was a SS — good defender, 40/40 potential, batting title, etc.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I would say Willie Mays,
Roberto Clemente, and Stan Musial would be in the conversation, too.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Was steroidy Barry 2.0 really a great LF?
He looked pretty immobile by the end of his career, while he was hitting all of those HR and taking all of those walks.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
You mean 37 year old Barry?
Even Ozzie slipped a bit by age 37 man…give the guy a break.
He was the best LF in the game for most of his career, probably until 1999 or so.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
And either way...
he was still easier to watch in the outfield than Vlad Guerrero is.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
or Matt Holliday, for that matter.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jan 6, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree. . .
at least not if you’re talking about how they look in the field. I realize that the defensive stats were unkind to Barry at the end, but watching Matt Holliday take a route to a fly ball physically hurts me.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jan 6, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
CORRECTION
at least IF you’re talking about how they look in the field.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jan 6, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
Peak Vlad Guerrero, however...
And note that this is different, because Vlad declined across the board, rather than derive most of his value from the years where he was horrible defensively
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Such things happen
when your knees decide that they’ve had enough and go away…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
As we all know...
“I believe there oughta be a constitutional amendment outlawing astroturf…”
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
No one would be talking about him as the best player ever
if he didn’t hit all of those HR at 37
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Ummmmmmm
Wrong. I thought he was the best player in the 90’s simply with his on-base ability and power. If he’s simply able to continue his 1998 numbers through 2004, he still hits over 600 homers, has a career 1.000+ OPS and is the only 500 HR/500 SB player in the history of the game.
Steroids or no, he goes down as one of the all time greats, which is part of the reason why I was so disgusted with his steroid use in the first place.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
The 500/500 thing happened during his 73 hr season
and assuming that he has no decline phase at all through 2004 without steroids when you attribute his defensive decline to age, and speed was an important part of the younger Barry’s skillset is pushing it. He’d certainly be one of the great players of the late ‘80s and ’90s without steroids, but there is no way that wed’ be sitting here comparing him to Ruth and Williams and everyone else without that massive end of career power output.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
yeah
Bonds WITHOUT steroids is still probably in the all-time top 10. I think people forget just how amazing he was in the 90s. At his pre-steroid peak, he’s still way better than any other current player, with one possible exception, IMO.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 7, 2010 6:13 AM EST up reply actions
Stone hands at the keystone for Rogers, if I'm not mistaken.
Back then, second base was like LF, where clubs hid poor defenders.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
sabrs have nailed hitting across era's with ops+
however there is no way to go by defense outside of hearsay and people’s biased memories or observations.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
This is an interesting clarification that needs to be made:
OPS+ is computed by comparing a player to the average players of his time. It only tells us how much better (or worse) a player was than the average player of his day. It has no way to account for fluctuations in talent in the league as a whole.
I, for one, think that strength training, injury treatment, much deeper talent pool, etc makes the average player in 2009 much better than the average player in 1900-1950 (there is myriad evidence to suggest this is the case – ie olympic record progression).
Should we still judge “best player possible” as performance vs. peers regardless of peer quality?
Free Melodi Dushane
Seems like we have to, otherwise its much more grey than it already is.
Plus, if you give those other players the same advantages…who knows. It just seems like there has to be a line and the only logical place to draw it is with OPS+? I really don’t have the answer, and I’m not terribly excellent with all these new fangled stats. Damn you kids and such!
Hand-eye coordination is crucial,
and I don’t think training has much of an affect. (Although, HGH probably does.) I remember reading a wonderful, wonderful article on how scientists performed hand-eye coordination tests on Babe Ruth and he was in something like the 99th percentile. For kicks, they did the same test to Pujols, who broke the machine and then fixed it, and had test results very similar to Ruths. If someone could find this article, I would be forever greatful. (Yadi2Second, I’m looking at you.)
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Oh definitely, and I'm not saying that Babe Ruth couldn't play by today's standards
But I do think Pedro Martinez would have broken people’s brains if he had pitched in 1940. And Albert might have hit 200 homeruns in a lineup with Stan Musial in 1948.
Free Melodi Dushane
Original NY Times article from 1921 on the Ruth test results.
“Ruth Supernormal, So He Hits Homers”
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
you guys do know
that most of the stuff I do, any moran can do too. it’s a daily training regimen, and the energy drink, but it’s really easy, truly.
though it is flattering to be known for something.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
HGH does not.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Thank you.
I read some speculation on this and am happy to be corrected.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2010 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
The injury thing, though, might make this argument go away
Every pitcher that has had a tommy john would no longer be in the league in 1957
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
massively reducing the pitcher talent pool
thus making hitters look better than they were…
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Have you read Baseball Between the Numbers?
The BPro guys make this exact case in the first chapter, comparing Bonds and Ruth. They do a bunch of that fancy math stuff to compare how each would do in the other’s era of play. It’s kind of interesting.
Albertofstan.
F* Yeah!
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Jan 6, 2010 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
not really
you should’ve heard him live. the most bored “I’m so excited” I’ve heard since Ben Stein.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Regional Network
I wonder if the Cards will try and launch a regional TV network and use the revenue to increase the payroll. I don’t see how they can commit 42M or so to two players and remain competitive unless they raise the payroll by at least 10-15M. I guess the other options are to raise ticket prices (which are already some of the highest in baseball) or commit less money to the debt servicing on the stadium if possible.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
I hope they raise ticket prices
I’m willing to pay more if it means a competitive team.
by Mulliganstew on Jan 6, 2010 12:06 AM EST up reply actions
I agree
If the only choice is to pay more and get a more competitive team then I am willing to pay more. However, I would rather see ownership foot the bill somehow, at least for the time being. The fairly small populace of STL has done its fair share to help fund the team. I wonder if another option is to re-capitalize by selling a portion of the ownership. That money could be used to pay down the stadium debt lessening the cost of the debt servicing on the bottom line.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
+1 on selling part of the team
but i don’t think dewitt would ever go for that.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jan 6, 2010 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
We already have ticket prices that are in the top 5 of MLB in price, don't we?
Count me out on that.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2010 8:36 AM EST up reply actions
I'm totally not up for higher ticket prices
Last season, ticket prices from the team were well above resale value. The ticket prices are already some of the highest in baseball. As a season ticket holder, I think they need to find some other way to foot the bill.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 6, 2010 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
BALLPARK VILLAGE MAN.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 7:14 AM EST up reply actions
But then
we’d miss out on this…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
surely they can do some creative architecture...
http://markbenkertsculpture.com/galleries/sculptures.htm
or
serious
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Um. Wow. Cool.
/speechless
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
I was thinking a giant Cubs Suck that appears around the equinox
and maybe a Go Cards for the solstice, to balance it out.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jan 10, 2010 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
I think this isn't really relevant, but, it is in a way
Justice put up a nice satirical column up that is hilarious in my opinion.
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
by timmycardinals on Jan 6, 2010 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
We need an updated payroll matrix
To see what might be left in the budget. This team could still use some tweaking.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
My quick calculations
Using arb figures of 5.5 for Ludwick and 2.5 for Skip leaves the team about 5.5 – 6M below 100M.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
That's what I got too
So so we could potentially add Valverde and/or Felipe Lopez, depending on how much each would cost and if we are on a strict 100m budget or if we could go a few million over.
I was thinking more like Eric Hinske
But he has apparently signed with ATL.
I could see Reed Johnson, Ryan Church, Tejada or Jerry Hairston Jr.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
How much do you think Tejada would cost?
I think he might just be on the bubble of our price range, so depending on flexibility, we may or may not be able to get him. And then if we get him what do we do with Brendan Ryan? Are you planning on moving Tejada to third base?
I don't disagree
I was thinking of likely scenarios not what I would want to happen. What I want most is closer backup. I’m just not sure who fits that description…maybe Calero.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
I agree
in ’08, Tejada was unbelievably atrocious.
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2010 1:35 AM EST up reply actions
3.2 WAR
Though Tejada’s defensive stats are probably the most interesting I’ve ever seen. It’s like the last 5 years he either decided to play defense of offense one year, and didn’t bother with the other.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Tejada would definitely play 3rd
Ryan is way too good at short to move. I agree he would be on the bubble cost-wise. I could see the Cards signing Jerry Hairston Jr. and a bullpen piece.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
We still defintiely need starting pitching depth
I opt to move Garcia to the minors and Smoltz as the 5th starter.
maybe, kinda
but if we add smoltz, i want him closing.
Heaven has brick walls and St. Peter is a red bird.
by EinFesteBusch on Jan 6, 2010 3:53 AM EST up reply actions
in april, i agree
but in, say, july? i really don’t want franklin to close all season long.
Heaven has brick walls and St. Peter is a red bird.
by EinFesteBusch on Jan 6, 2010 4:27 AM EST up reply actions
You think he'd make it a whole year starting?
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Jan 6, 2010 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
Define make it
I bet he is still breathing. Probably only have one arm. Then he and Mulder could duke it out to replace the drummer from Def Leapard.
as of this post
there were three posts in this thread that contained the phrase “make it”. They were, sequentially, the last three that were posted.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
As in
Not get injured and not fall off a cliff performance-wise
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Jan 6, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
Well then no
I think he could be a starter to begin the season then move to the bullpen and be fine. I would like to see a Smoltz signing for the record. Or he could skip a few starts to rest him and let some of the young guys take a turn. We probably need two more pitchers of the old/scrap heap variety.
oh oh oh
What has nine arms and sucks?
Def Leppard
I love that joke way more than I should…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
by ducttape16 on Jan 6, 2010 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'd see him as a platoon partner for skip at second
and pinch hitter, and insurance against a Ryan or Freese injury (Ryan’s career games played per season are 148, 132, 108, 105, 93, 52, 28, and that’s counting both milb and mlb games…)
He’d be a better super sub than Aaron Miles or Mark DeRosa, and if we could get him for 4-5M he’d almost certainly be worth it.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
the bench consists of julio lugo
and the smothers brothers. felipe lopez should be the next target, then a bargain arm for the ’pen in March.
Heaven has brick walls and St. Peter is a red bird.
by EinFesteBusch on Jan 6, 2010 3:57 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks
Your numbers are very close to mine. I have 94.5M.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
Boston is paying it
Cards are only on the hook for the ML minimum which is about 450K.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
I know that, it's the page above which bothers me.
How can the total be ~$64M when it should be ~$73M.
I am the Batman
I don't follow
When I add up the salaries listed in that column of the sheet, I get 73M. When you subtract Lugo’s salary (which makes sense since BOS is paying) I get 64M. I’m not seeing the problem.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
we are paying $73M(without Lugo)
Lugo is basically free to us, so how can it take away for the 73M?
I am the Batman
That column only adds up to 73
If you include Lugo’s salary.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
i dont want to link to it
but check the most recent this is why you’re fat entry
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
Resident malcontented betamale
by slu on Jan 6, 2010 1:46 AM EST up reply actions
Slight overestimates
I guess Ludwick will come in around $5 instead of $6, and $1 m of Holliday’s is deferred.
If we have about $7m left
I’m really liking our chances. A lot of the holes we need to fill can be done pretty cheaply – I guess we could (if we so desired) get Calero, a LH bench bat (Hinske? Church?) and a real bargain bucket 5th starter for about 7-8m (although we would have to go REALLY cheap on the rotation, and I’m personally not sure if Livan Hernandez and his ilk are much of an upgrade over Hawksworth/Boggs/Garcia).
I suppose my preference would be to sign someone who can pitch reasonably well (Smoltz? Contreras? Even Doug Davis) as starter #5, and then try to get a useful pen arm with whatever we can spare (Calero/Springer), and try to solve the bench internally. Jay is a potential option as a lefty bat/OF glove, and I still like Norris Hopper on a minor league deal in case Colby never figures out lefties this year…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
Hinskie Singed with the Braves.
Church would be ok, and Calero. I’d be willing to let our baby birds fight over the 5th spot and see who sticks, u can always pick up someone off the scrap heap later in the season.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Braves have had a good off-season IMO
I know lots of folks hated the Vazquez deal, but I think they’ve put together a pretty solid team all-around. I reckon they could be the 2nd best team in the NL next year, tussling with us for that honour I’d say.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 7, 2010 6:15 AM EST up reply actions
they got really old, i think.
glaus, saito, wagner, and cabrera join jones and lowe as older and or fragile pieces of the braves puzzle. it could be a good season with those guys healthy or really ugly with a bad bout of injuries.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
This makes me...
… SO HAPPY!
I love the Cards.
by Sir Sci on Jan 6, 2010 12:27 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
So, am I to understand that the pies worked?
Any word on whether he preferred the apple or the pumpkin?
Keep a lookout for my new book: Bakeryball: The Art of Winning Hearts and Minds with Pastry.
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
by The Continental on Jan 6, 2010 12:31 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
he liked both
and stayed for the gooey butter cake
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2010 12:33 AM EST up reply actions
They always stay for the gooey butter cake.
It’s like Saint Louis’ finishing move.
CAKE-ALITY!!!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
if only pixelated gooey butter cake retained some identifying element
it looks like a custard …. that’d make a great photoshop project
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I'm still shocked OMWN worked
though, again, based on his initial interview, we have the wives of the players to thank for making them feel at home and welcome.
THANKS DEE DEE.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I'd just like to say...
lboros is why I became hooked on this blog to begin with. It’s nice to read his thoughts again, even if they’re in the comments section.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 12:34 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
It doesn't seem like a smartly constructed contract
it seems more like a ‘run of the mill’ big free agent deal. I guess with Walt having been able to swing somewhat more reasonable, team friendly contracts I had grown accustom to not being completely disgusted by long term deals.
I hope this works out. I can’t even begin to imagine the guy who dropped a fly ball still being on this team in 2017. That seems so far away.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 6, 2010 12:35 AM EST reply actions
yeah.
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2010 12:47 AM EST up reply actions
correct me if i'm wrong, but Lego is the first big name free agent this ownership landed right?
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
there is no bigger name than Tino Martinez!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
well khalil was supposed to be pretty big
and it doesn’t get any bigger than porkchop
Heaven has brick walls and St. Peter is a red bird.
by EinFesteBusch on Jan 6, 2010 4:05 AM EST up reply actions
El Guapo
would like to have a word with you…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
oh, to have those two in the same bullpen...
the mound would hate us.
Heaven has brick walls and St. Peter is a red bird.
by EinFesteBusch on Jan 6, 2010 4:13 AM EST up reply actions
We would definately
have to reinforce the path in from the bullpen…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
add Todd Coffey and you can kiss the StL pie industry goodbye
Heaven has brick walls and St. Peter is a red bird.
by EinFesteBusch on Jan 6, 2010 4:17 AM EST up reply actions
or...
the next economic boom for the city…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
I know for a fact that area Krispy Kremes have been struggling ever since Ray King left town.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Thought they would have picked back up
when the Diner rolled in…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
Well, he'd finish in the top-ten of the 2016 MVP race
for his 2017 option to kick in, so I’d love to see him still on the team in 2017.
What's Next??
We signed Matt Holliday, so are the Cards done completely? I’m just curious what money we have left to play with, and what are the possible and reasonable options remain. Maybe it’s just because I love hot stove time so much I don’t want it to end :(. I just want to get the next lead!!
There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem - once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit. ~Al Gallagher, 1971
me too
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2010 12:47 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly.
If we hope to have Holliday, Pujols, Yadi, Rasmus, and Wainwright on the club past 2011 and 2012, we will need all of the first-round draft picks we can get. Surrendering one for an aging late-innings reliever would be a very poor decision, especially when Kiko Calero can be had without such a loss.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2010 8:38 AM EST up reply actions
I was against the contract
Then I found that Holliday can both mash the ball and photograph himself mashing the ball at the same time. Talent like that should be locked up
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
fritz you made deadspin!
http://deadspin.com/5440936/buster-olney-gets-scooped-by-his-own-story
[and yes i was the tipster]
[and yes i feel bad for being credited. should i tell him to amend it?]
[is that the type of thing i shouldn’t even have to ask and just do?]
[i’m a neurotic ass hat]
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
Resident malcontented betamale
oh i already sent in the request for him to link the veb comment
might as well credit fritz while also driving traffic (especially after they took joy in our agony)
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
Resident malcontented betamale
by slu on Jan 6, 2010 1:55 AM EST up reply actions
i don't think you needed an excuse to use it
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
Hat!
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Jan 6, 2010 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
why didn't you all tell me there was an overflow?
i missed LB damnit! although i’m sure he didn’t miss me.
anyway, here’s what i said in the other thread so no one has to wade through all 1500 comments. like you would anyway or care, but here is.
7 years is such a long time,
i’ve never been a big fan of the guy, i’ve always felt he was one of the most overrated players in the MLB & was a coors made player. i’ve always known his D wasn’t all it was cracked up to be. and i’m not even going to reference the nut shot that broke all our hearts. and we all know the reason we made the playoffs last year wasn’t because of our O, it was our pitching. sure Lego helped, but that still wasn’t a big help. Lego doesn’t make the O go, Albert does. a healthy Albert means a healthy Cardinals O. Lego is just a piece of the puzzel. just how big of a piece has been debated & hashed over the last 6 months. i’m of the belief that Colby & Luddy performance in front of & behind Albert will lead to more runs than anything Lego can or will do. Albert & Lego can only do so much, yes they are one of the best combos in the game. but if you don’t pitch to them & get the rest of the lineup out, you can beat the Cardinals. but if Colby & Luddy both hit to their potential, then my friends, the Cardinals have something very, very special on their hands. and suddenly the 2-6 spots in the order become a nightmare for the rest of the MLB.
if you add in the fact that every comment he made last summer was right out of the Boras script, meaning he never let himself or us fans totally fall in love with each other. and his interview today sounded even less in love than before, something still just doesn’t feel right to me about this guy. i feel like he’s trying to pull something over on us & the team. i don’t trust him at all. but he’s ours now so i better get used to it.
i hate the 7th year though. i’m disappointed, but not mad about the $17Mil per year too. i still think MO could have done a $15-$16Mil per over 6, but he bid against himself. no, that’s not the case at all. this deal has DeWitt’s fingerprints all over it. i think Bill himself took the lead & Mo rode shotgun. i’m not saying it was a bad deal, it could have been so, sooooo much worse. i just think they could have done a better deal & got anxious & sick of Boras dragging his feet so Bill made it happen. and good for him, it’s his cash he can spend it how ever he wants to. i just don’t want to hear him crying poor here in a few years when i comes time to pay ADAM & Colby after he’s done this & now has to pay Albert $25-$30Mil per in a year or two.
all in all, i guess this is a good thing even if it doesn’t feel like a good thing. i don’t know where i’ll be in 8 years when this deal has reached a end, i just hope i’m in a much better place than i am now. i feel the same way about the Cardinals & i hope you all do to. one thing this does tell us is DeWitt & CO feel the team will be better off or there’s no way they commit this much money & this many years to Lego. so i guess we’re going to have to take that leap of faith & trust them on this one.
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
by gdm426 on Jan 6, 2010 2:03 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Lot of good information in there...
Totally not reading all that…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
Agree with most of this
I still get the feeling that Matt was really wanting one of the West Coast teams to make an offer (Dodgers/Angels) because that would have been his first choice of where to play. I’m not convinced that Matt was really set on playing the rest of his career in St. Louis. And right now he’s trying to get used to the idea and because the Cards offered the best deal and he really didn’t have much of a choice if the money was important…which it was.
But I do think like Edmonds before him that he will fall in love with the city/fans in time. A lot of that depends on the type of year he has this year I believe. A good year in 2010 will be the start of a beautiful relationship. A bad year and it is the start of a BAD nightmare for him and the fans. Let’s hope for his sake, ours and the team’s that this will be a big year for him.
Boy a frosty cold Budweiser would be great about now"…long pause…then an "aahhh". --Mike Shannon
I doubt they were bidding against themselves...
No way Holliday would have signed for less per year than Bay ($15-16 million?). He might have signed for fewer years, but only for more money per year. 5 years, $100 million. But not a shorter contract for only $15-16 million.
Worst case for him, he signs a one year deal, then shops again next year. But certainly not a long term deal at $15 million.
I read all of it...
and I still agree with most of it. I agree that Bill was calling the shots. And I’m not at all sure about Holliday. He is getting paid more money than Albert Pujols, the outlier, the best player in baseball (ever). That is some heavy responsibility and I don’t think he gets it yet. He probably expects that if he has a bad year we are all gonna be ok with it. hmmmm…not so much. Albert would be forgiven for a bad year. (But I would be SO surprised if that ever happened.) .
I like the intense regard that cardinal fans feel for the players on the team. I think that’s part of the rational for the TBBFIA. Matt Holliday feels like a hired gun. Maybe that’s all he’ll ever be. Just as long as he doesn’t morph into Tino I guess it’ll be ok.
Cud be Worse...
…we cud be stuck with Soriano and his cowtract. Or big, fat, bloated Carlos Silva and his cowtract. Oh wait, aren’t the Cubs stuck with both of those? SNAP!!!
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Boom...that just happened, Hendry!
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 6, 2010 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
i'm with you, gdm
i keep trying SO HARD to like matt, and expected some seriously effusive stuff once he signed, but the comments are still so vanilla… language like “At the end of the day, playing in St. Louis with guys I made friends with and given the way the organization is run became very appealing to me.”
it became appealing? it BECAME appealing?
sigh.
i’m going to keep waiting for him to charm me, but damn.
I don't think there's much room for 'charm'
he seems to be awkward with the media, as per Leach. I think we’re in for 7 years of the strong, silent, hexagonal-headed type. get used to it….
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
yeah
that makes it sound like he doesn’t care that much
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2010 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
I don't care as long as he hits
He could not speak a word to the media for this whole contract and I won’t care if he keeps OPS’ing at least .900.
We're going through a new avatar test phase here at mojowo11. Please be patient as we may try a variety of new ideas over the coming days and weeks.
Concur
All this stuff about wondering if he loves STL or not is kind of “eh” to me. We may or may not be the Best Fans in Baseball© but we don’t need to be a needy significant other either.
“Well, he or she is with me now but I don’t know if he/she thinks I’m the one…”
The guy is a good player and by all accounts a professional. He’ll do fine on the field here whether this is his number one place or not, and if it isn’t it doesn’t matter a lick to me.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 6, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
John Mozeliak will make a speech aboard the S.S. Musial with an accompanying banner saying "Mission Accomplished"
/no moar politics
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Jan 6, 2010 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
FWIW
fangraphs’ wOBA comparisons of holliday, beltran, and soriano actually look pretty good for holliday. holliday and beltran signed the same length for the same price and turn out to be good matches.
Heaven has brick walls and St. Peter is a red bird.
Um, Bryan...
Now in the face of the gloom-and-doom pessimists who were convinced that DeWitt would never open his wallet
You’re calling out your co-workers.
Cards can only prosper if DeWitt opens DeWallet
i don't think bernie thought that dewitt would never open his wallet
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jan 6, 2010 9:10 AM EST up reply actions
dewitt took heavy criticism for being a cheap skate
to the point he actually replied to an SI article writer. My guess is he thought he could get by with the WS win and new stadium at first then realized quality of the team is the overall factor in generating revenue.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
"...the always impatient, constantly grumbling, never-satisfied lunatic fringe of Cardinal Nation whose constant woebegone nature could find a flaw in the Mona Lisa's smile"
geez, you guys suck.
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
I think that the Fangraphs article
linked in the other thread pretty much nailed it:
This deal is not a bargain for the Cards; they paid pretty much going rate for Holliday’s expected production, which is not a disaster, but it’s also nothing to crow about.
I even think that analysis is a smidgen to generous to the Cards: I don’t think the Cards got much value back (if at all) for giving the NTC, and I think the length of the deal and Holliday’s age should have lead to a bigger risk discount.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jan 6, 2010 9:27 AM EST reply actions
as our robot overlord stated last night
as Holliday will be a 10-5 guy, the NTC is only really for the 1st 4 years of the contract. were we REALLY gonna trade lego in the 1st 4 years of this deal? if so i gotta believe we have bigger problems….
It looks like...
cooler heads have prevailed. I closed VEB down last night after reading the initial reactions to the deal. I didn’t agree with all the negativity and decided it would be better to watch a Hawkeye victory in peace than get frustrated and defensive of the deal; I probably would’ve made an ill-conceived comparision to Larry Walker and gotten laughed out of the comments section. I agree with what seems to be the consensus around here – this isn’t a great deal but it’s unlikely to be Soriano-like albatross either. Ultimately, I think us fans are the victor in this Holliday deal. Hopefully we will never again complain about wasting the peak years of the greatest RH hitter we will ever see.
My reaction to the Holliday contract is similar to my reaction to the Holliday trade. I thought (and now think) that the FO gave up too much, but ultimately I’m fine with it. I think it was unrealistic to think the Cards were going to be able to sign Holliday for a discount because he wanted to sign in StL or because there were no other logical suitors. Holliday is an elite player and elite players cost a lot (in terms of FA $ or prospects in a trade) and they always will, economy be damned.
There is no such thing as an ill-conceived comparison to Larry Walker....
And Go Hawkeyes.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jan 6, 2010 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What are you talking about???
Illinois destroyed Iowa… oh wait… yeah… that…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
I see a lot of similarities
between Holliday and Walker, aside from handedness and defensive skill, they’re similar in size and rate stats, at a glance.
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
late to the party
I feel remarkably similar about this deal as I did to the original trade for Holliday: it could (likely will) really screw us over long term, but man should it be fun in the short term. Unfortunately, (unlike that previous deal), I now have to wait 4 months before getting that short term benefit.
hmm, it appears my title was more prescient than I realized
feel free to read IA Card’s post instead
by brackenthebox on Jan 6, 2010 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
Thank god for this site
I quick glance at BCB will really make you appreciate this site. I think in all of Chicago their are two people who see some value in Holliday. The constant comparisons/justifications to Soriano and the childish nut shot videos, though funny. One writer looked at both players career stats:
Holliday:
.318/.387/.545/.933
Soriano:
.278/.326/.510/.836
and somehow came up with this gem of analysis:
So in one category that I’m looking at, holliday is 97 points higher(OPS). In all others the diffrerence between him and soriano is about 50-70 points. To me, they’re both the same: the differences are not that exaggerated…..
AND, he threw out last seasons numbers for Soriano because of some sort of cold war logic. Like if you don’t recognize communist China it doesn’t exist.
I agree with IA Card above. I think most of us see this as fair value, or at least the going rate. I don’t think we overpaid, but we didn’t get a deal. The bottom line is that we never seem to land the big name free agents and this time we did. It cost money, it does these days, probably always will. He is still young enough to think we will see fair value for a large portion of the contract, with a decline phase at the end…so be it. I am rather happy with the signing.
Yah
I was over there yesterday and eventually just gave up. They aren’t stat oriented at all, and they’re never wrong. Bunch of homers.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Facts have no place on that board.
One guy kept insisting Holliday was 35, and that’s why it was a bad contract.
* is an Asshat
If anyone is older than they say they are it would probably Soriano.
Nawmsayn?
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Jan 6, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
couldn't the guy just look up his age?
unbelievable
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
Somebody pointed it out
down the thread, and no one even replied to it. Facts are not needed for discussion over there.
* is an Asshat
I should expect as much
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2010 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
I think what you mean is
They’re a bunch of dingers?
We're going through a new avatar test phase here at mojowo11. Please be patient as we may try a variety of new ideas over the coming days and weeks.
He's right you know
a .326 OBP and a .387 OBP are JUST THE SAME. EXACTLY THE SAME.
Say it enough times and I think Hendry might get a do-over on that deal…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
Does anyone have an OBP curve to illustrate just how far apart the two are?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
is that actually true?
those curves look remarkably normal (in the statistical sense). I’d have assumed there’d be more skew and/or noise.
Anyway, looks like Soriano (career) would be below the bottom 30th percentile or so, and Holliday is above the top 30th percentile or so.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
I stole it from THT...
Link here…article isn’t about the this topic exactly, but the data holds. And the minor stats are MLEs, naturally.
Free Melodi Dushane
This is great.
We should really do something like this for advanced stats like FIP, wOBA, etc. I think it would help folks understand what is good and what is not good. Any lifelong baseball fan can look at a .315 BA and say, “That guy is a good hitter.” Where folks get lost, in my opinion, is when someone compares batters based on, say, wOBA, and, while one batter’s wOBA is higher, they don’t understand how much better that higher number is. (Like the BCB folks and Soriano vs. Holliday in terms of OBP.)
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
isn't that (part of) what the + stats accomplish?
just z-score the stats and you don’t need the plots anymore
by brackenthebox on Jan 6, 2010 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
so basically two whole standard deviations seperate holliday and soriano
EXACTLY THE SAME!!! SDFSDJFSDFJSD
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jan 6, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
holliday and soriano are only two [units redacted] apart ?!!
they’re even more similar than I realized
by brackenthebox on Jan 6, 2010 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
303/423/706
316/330/645
Alfonso Soriano and Joe Thurston are EXACTLY THE SAME.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Jan 6, 2010 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Since Thursty hit two baseballs which carried out of the outfield grass in the air,
I assume he is the player with the .330 SLG %.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Thursty's ABs were accompanied by magical rings of magic...
…which surrounded the IF and forced all his popups to stay in the IF area.
Scientists have determined this magic to be real and have named it BAB-2.74, which is an acronym for Bad At Baseball 2.74. The 2.74 is arbitrary mumbo jumbo.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 6, 2010 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
Correction
He did not throw out last seasons numbers, he just wrote them off as a fluke. Probable. The numbers above are career.
Soriano best ever season - .380 wOBA
Matt Holliday last year – .390 wOBA.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 7, 2010 6:21 AM EST up reply actions
Personally, our options were extremely limited
Boras had at least some leverage, even though there is evidence to the contrary. Personally, I would rather pay his worth than miss out on him and watch him play for the Angels or something.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
Timing of the deal
While there’s been significant responses to the tune of “who were we bidding against?” I’d like to offer up one thought…
I believe we were bidding early on in the process against quite a few teams.
We offered a deal to Matt (somewhere between 5-8 years, and one that could exceed our largest (read: 100M+) contract ever, at the end of the Winter Meetings. At that time, only LAA and possibly SF had said “we will not pursue Holliday” in so few words.
I think Boras and Matt waited out to see if anyone else came in, but in the end, the initial offer parameters the cardinals offered, encapsulated this deal (roughly) he signed. Therefore, since we didn’t pull our offer in fear of losing our favor, Matt was able to make an agreement on a deal that was most likely offered very early in the offseason, when we expected a few more teams to pursue him.
In the end, we made what we felt was a good offer, a fair offer, one we could live with, and work with (PUJOLS), and he accepted it. It just wasn’t a “bang-bang” play, so to speak, with Matt and Scott waiting for any other suitors to come in.
At the end of the day, I echo DanUp/lboros’ thoughts that this deal, while not “very good” is “good” and one I’m happy with.
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
Overlooked
I do believe you are right that this is an overlooked aspect of the negotiations. The Cardinals willingness to go long term and leave the offer on the table allowed them to narrow the group of expected bidders. If the term was shortened I believe that more teams would have been brought into the bidding.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
Remember the old 8yrs 130MM contract?
At least I think that was the number anyway, doesn’t this 7 year with an option for an 8th that can be worth 120 or 136MM look an awefully lot like that? I think this is basically the offer we made back then.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
finally, something I have in common with AP
by brackenthebox on Jan 6, 2010 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
Im sure there is more, bracken
BUT not much. I assume you do not have bionic body parts.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
But historically
teams often hide a bad defender in left field, so when Matt starts to show his age, we won’t have to go looking for one
He Cud Be the next Lonnie Smith!!!
Anyone here remember the ol’ lovable “Skates”, Mr.. Adventures in Left Field? He was a lot of fun and a decent hitter too.
:=8D
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
On BCB's front page is a Cubs Plan to get Albert
That’s what it has come to for a Cubs fan? Dreaming about picking up a Cardinal in 2012. Cant say that i am surprised.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
Don't read the comments
Basically, we won’t be able to resign him because of the Holliday contract, but the Cubs will because they are going to ignore their massive contracts, therefore they don’t exist. Also we don’t have any farm system or cost controlled players so we have no chance, but they have no farm system or cost controlled players but they do have a chance. Me CubbieBlue, me smash logic. Not to mention Al missed the club option on Albert from the get go…
I browsed the comments
A lot didnt WANT Albert, they prefer Mauer. Oh, to be a Cubs fan.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
but will those sideburns?
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
What are you talking about
those sideburns could cure cancer…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
i should say
would they settle for 1B?
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
Today 1B
Tomorrow the world…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
Assuming he keeps hitting dingers.
If he slips back into the .375 wOBA region he’ll be down in amongst some useful, albeit not elite, hitters, and will be making A LOT of money to do that. We shall see… I hope that 2009 bat sticks around. The pre-2009 bat was pretty good, the 2009 one was otherworldly.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 6, 2010 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
aaaand the money quote:
I don’t want Albert Pujols. I don’t want an icon. I don’t want the biggest star in the game. I want a TEAM
This is literally too stupid to insult. To be fair, even BCB posters had the requisite infant-level IQ to denounce that comment.
Wow.
That’s bad enough to remove myself from BCB’s membership.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
another poster doesn't want him because
“in this day and age” his accomplishments are “suspicious.” Hmmm….another negative drug test. Seems like that’s the exact thing a rampant drug user would use to throw off the scent, no?
Someone ACTUALLY wrote that?
I mean, what?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 6, 2010 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
remarkably delusional
even for cubs’ fans
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I love knee jerk reactions like this
That’s how the Cubs ended up with the fucking mess of contracts that they currently have.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Come on!
Ditch Derrek Lee, Ted Lilly and Fuku, replace them with Brett Jackson, Andrew Cashner, and Pujols. Voila! And of course he’ll sign an 8/200 to play for the Cubs. There’s no doubt he’s dying to take a below market contract while simultaneously giving the finger to millions of his fans, who have also been his neighbors since he was 14.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
They're like the midwest Yankees
I remember finding a NY blog when the whole CC thing was in its initial stages and it had pictures of Holliday, Mauer and Lincecum complete with photoshopped Yanks gear and how the payroll would be worked out.
Teehee
Albert a Cub. If that ever happened I would first laugh assuming that it was some kind of Deadspin phony article. Then, upon finding it was true, I would laugh and then commit seppuku.
Perhaps laughter is not the correct reaction then… hmm…
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 6, 2010 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
Buster Olney just tweeted...
Terms on Holliday’s contract:‘10-’16: $15 m. annually, plus another $2 m. a year in deferred payments. ’17: At least a $1 mill. in a buyout.
Thoughts?
Better News than 17 annually
I like the deferred money in this case.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
Likewise.
If it’s factual, I think it speaks much better to Mozeliak.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
It would seem so.
This is very good news now that I think about it. It helps in negotiations with Albert and allows the Cards an extra 2 million to play with. I think Fourstick or Hardcore brought this up but this is a page from Jocketty’s playbook when signing big FAs. This makes this contract much more palatable.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
It was HL, not me
Agree that it’s a very good idea to defer money in this way.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
This whole situation has been Jockettyistic in practice.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
At the time of the Perez/PTNL-for-DeRosa trade,
when I was still emotionally fragile and the spector of Jess Todd being the Crash Davis of the deal had been raised, I declared the deal “Jockettyism at its worst.” I don’t mean to use the term pejoratively in this instance. The Wallace/Holliday Trade* seems to me very much in vein of Edmonds and Rolen.
*Isn’t it now, officially and forever, “The Holliday Trade”?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
The 2010 payroll...
is still below 2008. Smoltz must come back.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
Strange that Buster is tweeting this today
and that it didnt leak yesterday. Plus, Buster was late to the party on breaking the news that Holliday signed. For some reason I dont quite trust this yet.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
I do...
Pujols is making $16 million in ’10 and ’11, Carp is making $15 mill in ’11.
This keeps the pecking order relatively intact. It seems kind of trivial, but celebrities actually do care about this sort of thing.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
Hollidays contract
also includes a dart board in the locker room with Jason Bay’s picture on it.
by Mister Eff on Jan 6, 2010 10:47 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I just hope...
there are limo rides for his wife. Then I’d have to hate him for the next seven years
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
OT: Computer Literate Picture Mess-With Guys
Is there a way that I can make the size, not the height/width but rather the size in bytes, of a picture on my computer small? It’s 1.3MB but I need to make it 800kb. I tried resizing it but, as you probably already know, that didn’t affect the size on disk.
Go to download.com and search for a picture resizer.
Find a free one that you like. Most of those will allow you to alter the size in bytes or quality instead of the physical size.
As It Turns Out...
I wasn’t aware I had to re-save the image for the Attributes to update. All I had to do was reduce the image by 5% on both sides and it was below the amount. I really need to learn how to use this machine.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
Much easier way
if you have MS Powerpoint 2007 open it up, insert the picture, got to the pictures tools tab on the ribbon and on the far left you will see something called compress picture, use that to compress it, then right click on the now compressed image and save it. In PPT 2003 it is similar but I haven’t used it in awhile.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
Given that I have the attention span of a robot raised on the internet
I’m done with the Holliday deal (it was a market value deal) and onto worrying about our rotation. I still hate that Carpenter extension and am really worried about him holding up for a full year.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Well, thats over and done with too.
Move on. However, the 5th spot of the rotation and insurance against an injury to one of the top 4 must be discussed. IMO, Garcia should begin the season in Memphis.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
I'll will join your chorus of discontent toward the Carpenter extension,
and add to it a few notes of angst toward the Lohse contract. Our rotation is fragile, and I don’t mean from Italy.
Question Marks: Lohse, Penny, Smoltz (hypothetically), Garcia
Huge Question Mark: Carpenter
Small Question Mark: Wainwright
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2010 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Carp's Contract...
doesn’t bother me despite the injuries; he’s good enough to merit the risk. I’ve hated Lohse’s deal from day 1, though.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
I disagree.
Five years for a pitcher Carp’s age and with his injury history, which was the term of the contract, was a foolish commitment and still is. There is an ever-present fear when he pitches that, after the next throw, he will be lost for the season or forever, and it primarily fueled by the length and amount of his contract.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I feel that concern, as well...
and perhaps I’m just too sentimental, but I truly believe what he brings is worth that risk.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
Carp's extension was a bad choice
There was no reason to extend him before his contract expired when taking his age and injury history into account. I love watching Carpenter pitch, but I hate always worrying that his arm is going to fly off after about every single throw.
The Lohse deal was awful from day 1 as well.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 6, 2010 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
Ha!
Recced for the Christmas Story reference.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Jan 6, 2010 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
Best Christmas ornament I own
and I dont’ even get a tree…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
I am in Foundation Grounds in Maplewood
looking at this lamp.
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog
I think signing someone durable on the cheap
like Garland, wouldn’t be a bad idea for 4 million dollars, despite my recollection about how much nobody wanted him on these forums last offseason.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
IMO Garland was subject to a bit of a sabr-witch hunt last year
there seemed to be a suggestion parroted about that his peripherals showed severe signs of deterioration in 2008, when they really didn’t. I would be fine for him @ $4m, although I’d rather roll the dice on Smoltz.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, 4 million was the price I was thinking of.
I just remember a certain post by maybe DanUp loathing Garland, perhaps I am mistaken, but it was just intriguing to me.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
I think he's just so unbelievably unexciting
he just plods along, year after year, with his uninteresting stuff, plowing it into the bottom of the strike zone, for 220 innings of average-ish production. I think everybody wants to see K’s, and great stuff, and excitement, whereas Garland is just solidly productive. If he’s available for $4m, that’d be a pretty good deal, actually. Even with his HR issues in Arizona last year, I think he was still a 2.5 win pitcher and there’s a good chance he’ll be something like that again.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
Give me groundballs and...
half a dozen double-plays every night and I’ll be a happy man.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
Me too.
Not a happy man, of course, but happy nonetheless.
Not to mention...
He, Garland, will knock you all down.
As a total geek that would be my favorite part of acquiring Garland. It would be nice to have another durable guy as insurance, though. I think it would be more realistic to expect 200 or so innings than 220. He hasn’t done 220 in a few years.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
We already have Lohse.
If Garland comes cheap, sure he’s probably worth picking up. I think people were a lot more concerned last season because Garland got a 7-10M contract.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
i guess it depends how risk-averse we are
if Holliday’s money really is deferred ($2m), we could probably just about stretch to someone like Jon Garland, who’ll throw his usual 200+IP of roughly-average-or-slightly-above baseball, but with very little upside. Personally, I think we can afford to add a bit more risk (and more upside) by going with a Smoltz or a Contreras (I don’t believe we can stretch to afford Sheets, but I’d like him as an alternative), mainly because our baseline for a 5th starter (assuming a three-headed monster of Garcia/Boggs/Hawk/whoever) is probably 1-1.5 wins anyhow.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not necessarily averse to risk...
but I think that we’ve got enough risk built into our rotation at the moment. Lord knows what Penny will bring, Carpenter isn’t ever guaranteed a full season. I don’t see the front office as being averse to risk, but there’s plenty in play already.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
I too would love Sheets
but can the Cards risk his injury history with Carp, Lohse (last year), and Penny slated to fill 3 of the spots?
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
yes, IMO
Carp is a big question mark but Lohse and Penny are “very durable” and “about average durability” respectively throughout their careers. Penny was fine last year, had an injury the year before, and was fine before that. We’ve also got a better 6th starter than most (Garcia).
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
Possible that the Cards
may wait until into the season to do much more. After all, one can make a current case for help at third base, a fifth starter, and bullpen help. The Cards could wait to see where their biggest need is by June and take a salary dump from some other team to fill the biggest hole. Doing something now precludes that option, tho the free agent choice is bigger now (and we wouldn’t have to trade a low level prospect in June).
I'd be entirely in favor...
of bring on some additional relief help before the season begins.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
So, you're saying...
I need a space, then?
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
If we sign him, and he pitches any relief
I will refer to the ‘pen as "Smotzly’s Deli"
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Just Say No...
… to an-udder arm disaster waiting to happen. Sheets is too risky.
:=8/
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Yeah...
when intelligent, well-informed statheads are getting snippy with one another, you know the deal was pretty close to even.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
As for Carp...
there is species of pitcher that has injuries early, then peaks, or at least has a second peak, in their mid-thirties. Dave Stewart, Curt Schilling, Kevin Appier, and Tommy John sort of fit this mold.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
Proud to say...
I’ve never posted a pork-related picture.
alliteration.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
That is one screwed up...
sentence. Is species singular or plural?
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
I agree
but there seems to be a serious amount of injury risk in our rotation. Unless Mitchell Boggs/Lance Lynn takes a step forward, I’m worried about our starting depth. PJ Walters is not someone I want to see taking the ball for us next year.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Yup...
our whole team revolves around four guys, the loss of any one will likely doom the season unless the Cubs also under-perform. Rasmus needs to become a star really badly.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
Rasmus needs to become a star really badly.
I can’t see any reason in his plate discipline numbers at fangraphs why we shouldn’t expect more walks. Keith Law consistently raves about his approach at the plate last year. He’s already there defensively.
My only fear, and it’s one that’s still harbored from the Anthony Reyes debacle, is that the coaching staff is wanting him to be more “aggressive” or swing at more pitches. I hope that rhetoric disappears with our new hitting coach but I admit that it’s still my secret fear.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
there's reason to think his power should continue to develop as well as I recall
I seem to remember reading sometime last year that Rasmus really crushed the home runs that he hit. I have no idea if that’s at all meaningful, but it’s another reason to hope for a breakout beyond the projections.
by brackenthebox on Jan 6, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
Hit Tracker Online
Average HR distance in MLB: 398.8
Rasmus Average HR distance: 413.25
Half the 16 HR’s he hit were “no doubters” and only 3 were just enough. He’s got power in spades and it too should come to fruition more.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
yeah he absolutely crushed some last year
was it in pittsburgh where he hit one into the river? That was ridiculous, in an Albert way…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
sunk a pirate ship if I recall correctly.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
And the hopes and dreams of an entire city...
oh wait that happened after the Steelers finished the season… Well except for the 15 hockey fans in the city…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
Don't let Hardcore hear you say these things about the Penguins. . .
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
It was more of a hockey in general comment
As one of the remaining 140 hockey fans left in American I feel the best coping mechanism is to joke about it.
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
I really wanted to get behind the Blues this year
but, after toughing out the first few weeks, I lost interest. Can’t grab casual fans and turn them into hardcore ones by sucking that badly.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
same with me
i was all pumped up for the start of the season and have now once again lost interest.
hockey was my favorite sport as a youngin so it’d be nice to see the blues return to late 90s form.
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
Resident malcontented betamale
by slu on Jan 6, 2010 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
the blues have been built exactly how you want a team to be built
the results have just not come. it’s sad, really.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Jan 6, 2010 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
Seems like the Blackhawks
have just outfoxed them at their own game actually. Doesn’t make it any less sad to see though.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Yeah I'm pretty much a casual fan
but now I’m living with a guy who’s a diehard Hawks fan so I assume that will probably wear off on me getting more back into hockey. Right now it’s a battle if his hockey wears off on me or my love of college basketball wears off on him…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
Doesn't just about every team revolve around "four guys"? (Except for the Yankees.) Doesn't seem like something to be worried about.
Who’s going to replace Pujols? No one. Who’s going to replace Carp or Wainright? No one.
Other than the Braves, who has five legit starters? We don’t even “need” five legit starters.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jan 6, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
I kinda agree with that actually
everyone was very high on Garcia as our 5th starter about 2 months ago, and now all of a sudden everyone (including people I saw advocating him in our opening day rotation, incl. azru) thinks he needs to start in memphis. I think it’d do him good to start in memphis, but in all honesty Garcia is probably, at the very least, a league-average 5th starter, and arguably a bit better than that.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
Garcia simply can't take a starting spot for health reasons.
His ceiling is probably 150-170 IP, and he’s joining a rotation where the top four all have checkered injury histories. Penny and Waino are likely to be healthy, Lohse and Carp are still questionable, and Garcia probably shouldn’t break 150 IP for his own good. That means we’re probably going to need a decent 6th starter regardless of how things break in the rotation. Is Mitchell Boggs that guy? He certainly could be, but Ben Sheets is more likely to be that guy. I’d like to have Smoltz as well, but not for SP money- he’d come in as one of the less reliable arms in an already luck-dependent rotation.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Isn't...
170ish innings acceptable for a #5?
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
I would guess it to be high.
I believe that no. 5 starter actually make fewer starts over the course of the season, getting skipped over more often when the no. 1 starter can start on regular rest. But, I could be wrong.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2010 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
2005 Cards used only 5 starters
31 GS for Morris was the low with 192 IP. 33 GS the high for Carp & Marquis Link to B-R
An effective # 5 would get 30 starts. Most # 5 end up being either ineffective and demoted to the pen/minors or injured.
I'm mostly comparing...
us with the Cubs. They’re the only impediment we have to the post-season, and they are the opposite of us. They’ve got Z, Lilly, Dempster, new guy whatshisname, and Gorzelanny – all worse than our top 2 and (arguably) better or equal to our bottom three.
In the field they have the following career wOBAs
374
364
360
349
338
332
332
328
Meanwhile we have…
436
400
357
335
316
311
305
? (Freese)
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
So outside the top two, they've got us beat
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Jan 6, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
So except for what makes us better than them, they're better than us.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jan 6, 2010 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
All of which leads me to conclude
That when we don’t beat them, they’ll probably beat us.
We're going through a new avatar test phase here at mojowo11. Please be patient as we may try a variety of new ideas over the coming days and weeks.
My opinion
This is a bad deal. Not awful now, but we are going to hate it down the road. The Cardinals were bidding against themselves for a player with no other serious suitors. 6/100 would have been about the highest amount I think Holliday would be worth. I see no way that he will be worth his contract at the tail end of the deal. The logic that “he had to make more than Bay” is faulty because it’s not true. Bay’s signing only meant that there was one less team in the market for Holliday. I also see little incentive to root for Holliday at this point, other than for the fact that he’s a good player on the Cardinals. This is what he said after getting the contract:
It is a tremendous amount of money. When you’re a little kid growing up who hopes to be a professional baseball player and hopes to play in the Major Leagues, I don’t think you ever think about the money. Now that you look at it and it’s that kind of money, it’s a little overwhelming.
I call BS. It’s all about the money. That’s why you hired Boras and that’s why if any other team had offered a cent more, you would have been there. I don’t want to hear all of the generic nice things you have to say about St. Louis now that they proved to be the higest bidder, I want some sincerity. I’d rather you just say, “My choice this offseason was all about my family’s fiscal security. Now that we have this security, I will do my best and train harder than I ever have before to live up to my contract and win a World Series with Albert.”
Holliday cost us the farm and now $120M. I really hope he lives up to the hype. Until he does, I’m only going to remember what it cost to get him.
/rant
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
Boomer!
Where have you been? How were the holidays? We missed you. As a complete aside, I’ve been happy to see a lot of folks posting over the last week who have been noticably absent from our discussions for a while.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Sooner!
I’ve been around, just reading though. We moved our work office, I bought a house, college football, and just life, I guess. I never stop reading, my posting usually slows way down during the offseason.
I should be around more and more. Very curious to see how we round out our roster.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
bought a house huh?
congratulations sir
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
Mortensen...
is not to be overlooked, either.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
Re-Reading that...
makes it look like I thought you left out Mortensen, but I’m simply echoing that he is a valuable loss.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
I think he is somewhat fungible in our system, personally.
I’m not sure Peterson is worth much of anything.
The fact that two teams have decided that Wallace can’t play 3B is a big hit to his value, IMO. I still feel it was an overpay for Holliday, but not such a bad one as it appeared at the time.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
I watched Walrus a fair amount...
here in Springfield and I was really taken with his bat. But you watch him day to day and you (well, I) have to wonder if his body is really suited to a Major League season. It’s not a slight on the guy, he’s got great abilities at the plate, but you don’t see professional athletes that are built like him… and I think there’s a reason for that.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
Watching him in Springfield as well,
I thought that the ragging on him for his “bad body” was exaggerated. But that’s just me.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 6, 2010 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
Well, I'm torn on it...
because he’s clearly a capable player. I’m just slightly concerned with his ability to hold up for a full season/long term especially if he wants to play 3rd base. I really really like him and respect what he does, but I don’t think it’s off-the-wall to be curious how his body type would stand up long-term.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2010 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
Totally agree with that assessment.
But I think that many here are far too quick to dismiss his body type and ability. Last offseason everyone was in love with him but now it seems just the opposite.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 6, 2010 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
there was some suggestion he piled on a good bit of weight at the end of last year
at the very worst, I think he’ll be a league average DH for somebody on the cheap.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
“The farm” is talking about those three, and Wallace was the #1 prospect in the system. However, we also lost Perez and Todd for the DeRosa trade which means we don’t have much of a farm left. That’s why I said the farm. It wasn’t really supposed to be hyperbole, even though that’s how Sooner interpreted it. Whatever the case, that’s not even a significant part of my point. The DeRosa trade was much worse than the Holliday one, though I think we could’ve gotten Halladay for what we gave for Holliday.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 6, 2010 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
perhaps more pertinently
we could’ve gotten Cliff Lee for what we gave up for Holliday, still signed Holliday this off-season, and still have about $5m to spend on a 5th starter.
Anybody for:
Waino
Carp
Lee
Smoltz
Lohse?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 6, 2010 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
wishful thinking.
“we could’ve gotten Cliff Lee for what we gave up for Holliday” – no fricking way.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jan 6, 2010 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
the deal we gave up for holliday was very similar (some would argue better) than what the phillies gave up for Lee.
Bear in mind also that they got a viable 2nd player (Ben Francisco) into the deal, who is a cost-controlled OFer with a good shot of being average going forward.
The players Philly gave back:
Jason Knapp is a single-A pitcher who is young and has good stuff but still has just a single year of pitching above rookie ball, and MAJOR question marks over an ongoing shoulder injury.
Carlos Carrasco was an (admittedly young) AA pitcher with decent stuff and so-so returns, who was probably equivalent to mortensen, with more upside and a bit more risk. You could readily argue he was better than Mort (sub-3.00 FIP in 114 AAA innings, and he was younger) but I don’t think he was close to Wallace as a prospect.
Jason Donald is a 25-year-old AAA shortstop who left his bat in the low minors. I doubt he’s worth any more than Peterson.
Lou Marson is a 23-year-old AAA catcher without much of a bat who probably profiles as a backup guy.
None of those guys was the prospect that Wallace was. AND they got Francisco back, too. Perhaps take Francisco out of the deal, and it could be, I dunno, Carrasco, Donald and Marson. No way that’s as valuable as Wallace, Peterson and Mortensen.
Fangraphs describe the trade thus:
Also keep in mind that Cleveland also tossed in outfielder Ben Francisco, who has some value as a bench player. To be honest, Donald and Marson are likely part-time players at best. Clevaland has better options, especially at catcher. Knapp is a long way away and the injury to his shoulder is worrisome. Carrasco is a pitcher who has never been able to live up to his impressive potential. Lee, on the other hand, has already exceeded expectation.
Lee was traded on July 29th, Holliday was traded 5 days earlier. You seriously think we couldn’t have matched the grab-bag of minor-league scrubs, one seriously hurt single-A guy, and a decent AAA prospect that Philly sent Cleveland’s way with Wallace + others? I honestly wonder if Wallace alone might’ve been enough.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe Shapiro...
didn’t like Wallace and didn’t want him at all.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
i think we were never in the running for Lee, tbh
we wanted a bat, and TLR (and the org) was fixed on Holliday. Even if Shapiro hated Wallace (fair enough as they have Hafner, and I think they’ve got a decent 1B prospect somewhere), we could have matched what Philly gave up even without him. There’s not an A-grade prospect anywhere in that Lee package, AND they got Fransisco back, too (who is a slightly above league-average bat in a corner spot).
I can see why we went after a bat rather than a pitcher, the logic was reasonably sound, but it still stands to reason that (2009 aside) Lee would’ve been better value going forward, as he’s also signed through 2010, and we’d still have had money to get Holliday to the deal he’s currently on (as Lee costs little more than what we’re paying Penny this year).
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
I think you are forgetting...
The first round draft pick we would have given up for signing Holliday
We get it back if/when Lee leaves
which we won’t if/when Penny leaves.
Swings and roundabouts.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 7, 2010 6:24 AM EST up reply actions
Well
I wasn’t really talking about the other deals, b/c that isn’t about Holliday. Holliday doesn’t owe us performance b/c we lost Perez and Todd.
And I know it doesn’t mean much b/c we lost, but without Holliday last year, I don’t think we have any chance of competing with the other playoff teams. Just didn’t work out.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
I'm not trying to say
That Holliday owes us performance for Perez and Todd. The original post was just worded somewhat poorly. I just didn’t like the trade for a rental and thought we could have done better with Wallace, who from watching play I thought had more value than people seem to think now.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 6, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
agreed (to an extent)
though we gave another fielder (Robinson?) and a pitcher too (Worrell?). Anyway, in hindsight, I’m much more pissed about what we gave up and got in return for the DeRosa trade (Perez and Todd)
robinson's still in the system
Worrell was included in the trade for Khalil Greene (with Luke Gregerson) and promptly had his elbow explode. He had Tommy John last year, I think.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
It was about the money
but he is saying the right things. Plus, Holliday seems to be a workout warrior. I am not all that concerned that this contract will go to his head.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
In fact,
one can make a case that Holliday will perform very well. His worst years were 2008, after he turned down Colorado’s offer and was playing out the string with them. Then, he performed badly the first half of ’09 with Oakland, where he was likely not going to stay. Perhaps he is that rare bird who performs fine when he is happy with where he is at and has the security of a long contract – he has asked for the latter all along. Probably too rosy a view but who knows?
a lot of the colorado fans had him pegged as a good player in pressure situations
and a guy who came through a lot in pennant races, in the clutch etc.
Not sure how much value (if any) I put on that, but I get the feeling his attitude (as a player) is pretty good.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
In Economics
The general assessment is that people will be looking out for themselves. You can’t blame the guy for not suiting our needs. Being a fan of the team, I will like him either way, unless he turns into Vernon Wells, which is unlikely due to his past history of being a good hitter.
(Just read what Soonerfan said) He cost us a guy we couldn’t even use, (The A’s trading him despite 3b being open validates my position), and perhaps saved us more money in the long run on Pujols extension. Maybe those 2 are mutually exclusive you could argue, but what if he saves us 5 million a year on Pujols contract?
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
(Econ major)
I don’t blame him for going after the money. I just don’t like it that now he is pretending that he wasn’t all about the money. I’ll root for him to succeed, obviously, but I have no attachment to him like I do any of the other Cardinals core players. To me, he has yet to earn that status.
I don’t agree that Wallace was at the point where we couldn’t use him. He still played 3B, and was our top prospect. We could have traded him for Halladay, Lee, or saved him to trade next season. I don’t think we maximized his value trading him for a 3 month rental.
I’m not sure where you are going with the saving money on a Pujols extension…
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 6, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
because pujols will sign for 10/100 now that we have holliday
it has to work
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
Sorry if I insulted your intelligence
didn’t mean to do that and didn’t know you majored in it, just pointing it out from some of the classes It took :p.
But i mean, what do you want him to say? “Just give me my money” “I don’t care about winning, just the money”. He just can’t say those things. He has to have some level of decency. He may not have the “Favorite player” award right now like Pujols or Skip does, but he is still going to be a major cog in the team.
My point is that in the eyes of Luhnow and Mo, Wallace could not play 3B in the long term. He wasn’t going to turn into a Ryan Zimmerman for us, which is unfortunate, so he made the most of his investment. We very well could have traded him for Holliday or Lee, but i think the organization knew it had a better shot at resigning Holliday rather than Lee or Halladay. The pitching staff didn’t need a shot in the arm. When you get shut down by Randy Wolf and Vincente friggin Padilla in the playoffs, you aren’t going to blame the staff are you?
I’m trying to say that if the Cardinals hadn’t signed Holliday in some way, shape, or form, Pujols price would probably have gone up to his actual value (30 million or so). I am arguing that signing Holliday lowers his price because our team won’t be nearly as bad as it would have without Holliday. If it appeases Pujols and shaves 5 million off his asking price, I would say it is worth it.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
Oh no
You didn’t insult my intelligence at all, just letting you know I understand your point fully. I can see your point on everything you just said, and I can agree with much of it. My original post was just getting rid of some frustration about a deal that I think went too far. It was a rant, as I said, and I really hope people don’t think I’m some irrational idiot that thinks Holliday should play for free.
That said, I don’t know what he’s supposed to say. I didn’t like his implication that he wasn’t going for the money when we all know that was the case—which is perfectly fair. I just don’t think we should have given it all to him. At this point, he’s just a guy the team signed to me, but I have high expectations for him. When he meets those expectations, I’m sure I’ll root for him like the other core players. At this point though, I’m simply going to hope he doesn’t hurt himself somehow. A week from now (ok, maybe tomorrow) I’ll be drooling over the lineup possibilites.
As far as the trade, I would have rather gotten Halladay or Lee. Lee would have been under contract already….but this is all hindsight so it doesn’t really matter. I thought Wallace had more value than we got for him, but again, it’s all in the past.
Hopefully this signing helps Pujols to want to stay. Winning the series in 2010 has to help our chances of getting a hometown discount…
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
I disagree with every single sentence in this post.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jan 6, 2010 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
Why do you hate the Cardinals so much?
I really hope he lives up to the hype.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
he got you there...
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
Snap....Crackle, and Pop.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
Face it...
Holliday cost us the farm and now $120M. I really hope he lives up to the hype. Until he does, I’m only going to remember what it cost to get him.
It doesn’t matter how well he plays, you’re always going to be thinking about what it cost to get him. That’s the way you think, and there’s nothing wrong with that as you’re entitled to your opinion. I just get the feeling that everyone that doesn’t like this deal is going to always hate this deal down the road and will be lurking around waiting to jump all over Holliday as soon as he fails in the very least, even though he plays a game in which failure is a given nearly 70% of the time.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Everyone
Is going to remember what it cost to get him. I’m not going to jump all over him for anything unless he drastically underperforms for an extended period of time. If he stays fully healthy 5 of 7 years and at least produces somewhat in the other two, I think we should be ok and I won’t mind the deal. But that’s hindsight. Right now, it’s a sizeable risk when that much money is invested in one player.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 6, 2010 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
Historical valuations of a win.
Can anyone point me to historical valuations of a win over, say, each of the past ten years. How much was a win valued at in dollars back in 1998, 1999, 2000, etc.?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
not quite what you want
but if you’re talking about the fangraphs valuation of a win, you could work it out from first principles by taking a player who’s played for a while (say, albert) and divide the “annual value” in dollars by the number of WAR they provided.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
Very good.
The problem, of course, is that WAR only goes back to ’02 or so on Fangraphs, right?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
i think statcorner might have it going back a bit earlier
and there’s always sean smith’s stuff.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
I thought Statcorner didn't go back much further than Fangraphs?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
And
does Smith have historical valuations?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
i think so
i don’t really follow his stuff. Someone else will probably be able to answer your questions better than I will!
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
The problem with that
Is that teams weren’t using statistical valuations to measure players so they weren’t paying any attention to WAR. I’ve read it in multiple places that salaries had increased 10% annually though.
Not afraid to nitpick
Can we get a HOF induction thread before 1 pm EST?
I know this is Wednesday and the red baron is casually late but I don’t want the HOF announcements to get gobbled up into this Holliday-gasm.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 6, 2010 11:52 AM EST reply actions
Seconded!
We know you are around robot!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
If there isn't a RB thread by quarter till, I'll put something up.
I don’t want to fracture the front page unnecessarily.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
ot: found something for IHeartBoog
Which, hopefully, will not cast further doubt on your screenname, IHB, because I still do echo the sentiment.
Just wondering if you saw this: http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/10/5/1069688/cardinals-back-into-the-playoffs#22337283
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
The day after
All i can say is…YAY…damon or nady would have been such a downer
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
Where would you start if you want to get deeply involved in statistical evaluations?
I bought the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract and BP’s Everything You Know About Baseball is Wrong. Suitable? Any other suggestions? I’ve got a B&N gift card and I’m itching to use it.
Baseball Beyond the Numbers is worth reading, I would say.
I would read The Fielding Bible and The Fielding Bible II. There are also lots of very good websites. Some rough sketch primers that are informative for the following stats can be found at the links below. Also, I believe Az compiled some SABR articles for a Fanpost a while back. The comments for that post would be rich with pieces to read.
WAR: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-WAR?urn=mlb,211211
WPA: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-WPA?urn=mlb,209597
wOBA: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-wOBA?urn=mlb,208135
FIP: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-FIP?urn=mlb,206286
OPS+: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-OPS-?urn=mlb,204667
BABIP: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-BABI?urn=mlb,203710
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2010 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
Shoot.
Those links don’t work. But, you could copy and paste them into your URL, if you are sure to get the black numbers that didn’t hyperlink at the end.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I'll echo the sentiments...
I like the contract, but I don’t love it. That seventh year scares me. I mean, SEVEN years… damn. But, all things considered, I’ll take it. It’s a big contract, for certain, but considering that Soriano and Wells are, for reasons mysterious to all, making similar amounts and are vastly inferior players…
Now all we need is the MLB hat supplier to start making seven years worth of square hats!
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 6, 2010 12:20 PM EST reply actions
so how bad does it get if bay puts up similar numbers to holliday?
i fear backlash
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
I don't see how he puts up anywhere close to Holliday numbers
he might, MIGHT, outdo Matt in HRs, but that isn’t a given considering Citifield.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
So I was reading Bernie's column...
And one of the cons to this contract that was listed is the length of the contract. I also am hearing from cub fans who are saying that he isnt going to be that great when he is 37. However, if he is getting ready to turn 30 shortly, then won’t he only be 36 when the contract is over? For a dude as built as Holliday is, I cannot imagine that he is going to be a slouch at age 36
If you are going to suck, you might as well try to kick (butt), like, Jesus Lizard, they suck, but they kick (butt)-Beavis
by FredbirdisaDork on Jan 6, 2010 12:48 PM EST reply actions
McGwire was pretty muscular.
Albert Bell was, too.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
2017 Option and Carlos Delgado
In 2008, Carlos Delgado (age 36 year) started the year very poorly, and some thought his career was over. He then rebounded in July, and helped carry the Mets in their division run.
Monthly splits from B-R.com
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=delgaca01&year=2008&t=b#month
He then finished 9th in NL MVP voting.
http://www.baseballwriters.org/awards/2008/2008_NL_mvp.html
I guess I can imagine a similar situation with Holliday where a hot half-year pushes him into the 8 to 10 range of MVP voting. Which would trigger the 2017 option.
And for reference, Delgado didn’t earn his salary that year ($16m), per fangraphs.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1297&position=1B#value
I’ve seen some arguments that are basically “if he is still that good, we would want him for 2017”, but I don’t know if that is always the case.
I was thinking something similar
MVP voting can be so fickle. Luckily wedon’t have to really worry about that option for another eleventy-billion years. Ok, not that long, but a while. I still am fine with the signing.
Man, the MVP discussion was really frustrating that year. I mean, Carlos Delgado, seriously?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
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