Salaries and WAR and stuff
by vivaelpujols on Jan 10, 2010 7:00 AM EST
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PrintWith the offseason winding down, and the Cardinals blowing a pornstar sized wad on Matt Holliday, it appears that the Cardinals are done in free agency. Many of the players who I had wanted to sign at the start of the offseason (Harden, Beltre, Cameron and VEB's favorite douchebag*, Brett Meyers) have been signed by other teams, and there are very few guys who I could legitimately see us having use for still around.
However, before I accept the fact that Cardinals are set for the upcoming season, I'd like to, characteristically, run some numbers to ease my mind. As the title of this post alludes to, I'm going to be taking a look at how much the Cardinals have tied up for next year (salary) and what kind of production they should be expecting to get (WAR).
For salaries, the numbers are pretty self explanatory. Using Cots Baseball Contracts as my source, I went through every player on the Cardinals current roster and entered in their 2010 salary (with no bonuses). For arbitration cases Skip and Ludwick, I entered in estimates of what they would get. Also, according to Cots, both Carpenter and Holliday have 2 million of their 2010 salary deferred without interest - so I subtracted that from each of their salaries.
Figuring out WAR was a little more complicated. For the "Offense" column, I used CHONE's R/150 projection for each Cardinal. That number expresses how many runs over an average hitter that player is expected to produce. For defense, I used Steve Sommer's excellent UZR projections (which are regressed against the fans scouting report) for all non-catchers who had enough playing time in the majors to qualify. I filled in the rest using CHONE's defensive projections, which use Total Zone as the source. For plate appearances, I simply gave my best guess - obviously there is room for disagreement. After I had those 3 components it was a snap to add them all together to get WAR for hitters.
For pitches, I used CHONE's projected ERA and my best guess at innings pitched. The "Leverage" column expresses how important those innings pitched are expected to be. For starters, the default was at 1 (meaning those pitcher's innings are expected to be of neutral importance), and for relievers I used an average of their deserved leverage (mmmm... deli) and their actual leverage from last year. I then put that all through the surprisingly complicated WAR formula to get the final number.
So, without further ado, here are your current 2010 Cardinals!
| Position players | ||||||
| Name | Position | 2010 salary | Plate apperances | Offense | Defense | WAR |
| Yadier Molina | CA | 4.25 | 500 | -4 | 9 | 3.0 |
| Albert Pujols | 1B | 16 | 600 | 53 | 5 | 6.7 |
| Skip Schumaker | 2B | 3 | 550 | -1 | -5 | 1.5 |
| Brendan Ryan | SS | 0.4 | 550 | -15 | 7 | 1.7 |
| David Freese | 3B | 0.4 | 400 | -1 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Matt Holliday | LF | 15 | 650 | 29 | 6 | 5.3 |
| Colby Rasmus | CF | 0.4 | 550 | 2 | 6 | 2.7 |
| Ryan Ludwick | RF | 5 | 500 | 11 | 1 | 2.1 |
| Julio Lugo | 2B | 0 | 300 | -15 | -1 | 0.3 |
| Jason LaRue | CA | 0.95 | 150 | -36 | 5 | 0.0 |
| Tyler Greene | SS | 0.4 | 200 | -18 | -5 | 0.1 |
| Nick Stavinoha | Chair | 0.4 | 200 | -10 | -3 | 0.0 |
| Joe Mather | RF | 0.4 | 300 | -7 | -1 | 0.3 |
| Pitchers | ||||||
| Name | Role | 2010 salary | Innings pitched | ERA | Leverage | WAR |
| Chris Carpenter | SP | 12.5 | 130 | 3.13 | 1 | 3.7 |
| Adam Wainwright | SP | 4.65 | 190 | 3.7 | 1 | 4.0 |
| Kyle Lohse | SP | 8.875 | 150 | 4.33 | 1 | 1.9 |
| Brad Penny | SP | 7.5 | 160 | 4.13 | 1 | 2.5 |
| Jaime Garcia | SP | 0.4 | 140 | 4.55 | 1 | 1.5 |
| Ryan Franklin | CL | 3.25 | 60 | 3.82 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Trevor Miller | RP | 2 | 60 | 3.64 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Kyle McClellan | RP | 0.4 | 55 | 3.71 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Jason Motte | RP | 0.4 | 50 | 3.84 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Dennys Reyes | RP | 2 | 55 | 3.82 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Josh Kinney | RP | 0.4 | 40 | 4.38 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Mitchell Boggs | RP/SP | 0.4 | 50 | 3.88 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Total salary | Total WAR | |||||
| 89.375 | 42.1 |
For reference, a replacement level team is expected to win 47-48 games, so the Cardinals are currently projected to be a 90 win team - at least using these numbers. For a salary just under 90 million, that's a pretty damn good team. Furthermore, that salary is lower than I thought it would be, and potentially leaves room for us to continue adding depth and high-reward type players to the roster.
Some general observations:
- Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday are going to be amazing... dare I say ridiculous? Even using somewhat conservative playing time projections for Albert to account for the injury risk, the two are still projected to be worth ~12 wins next year.
- The rest of the offense is actually quite balanced. Rasmus, Ludwick and Molina are all projected to be average to slightly above average (and Rasmus has plenty of room for a breakout) and Skip, Freese and Boog are all projected to be slightly below average. Boog's projection is the most disappointing, as his defense isn't projected to be as good as it was last year, and his offense is projected to hover around the Thurston line - however, he's still projected to be almost exactly a league average player over a full season, which is quite valuable given his salary.
- Boggs was actually projected as a starter by CHONE, but I think he'll end up in the pen next year. So I subtracted .8 points of ERA from his projection as a starter to translate the difference.
- Our weakest links are clearly 3B, the 5th starter's spot, the bench and the pen. I think the bench could be easily improved by signing guys like Gabe Gross or Ryan Church, and Lugo should be a bit better offensively than his projection, so that's shouldn't be much of a problem. Plus, should Craig or Gotay make the bench out of ST, they should be able to manage .5 WAR.
- The rotation looks pretty good as is - Garcia projects to be about league average which is excellent for a 5th starter - but there is little depth. Walters, Hawksworth and Boggs all project for a high 4's ERA in the rotation, and while that isn't terrible, should Carp or Penny or Garcia miss a significant amount of time, having to fill 150 innings with that kind of pitching can really hurt a team. Again, I lobby for John Smoltz, but I would be happy with a guy like Washburn who figures to be a league average starter who could end up shielding us from the replacement level brigade in the minors.
- At 3B, Freese looks fine, but he's obviously upgradable. Really, the only other 3B option left is Floppy, and I'm not sure if that upgrade is worth the money. So, I think I'm happy with Freese for the time being.
- It's weird how basically everyone in the pen projects for the same ERA. The bullpen is very balanced, and should be able to avoid a lot of blowups, but something about it scares me. Franklin isn't a bad pitcher, but a 3.8 ERA from the closers spot is right around replacement level. And, unless Motte's able to improve, there isn't a guy out there who can strike somebody out on a consistent basis.
Even with all of those problems, the Cards look to be in great shape. They have a very well balanced offense, a potentially excellent rotation and some money to spare lest they find it in their hearts to get some more rotation depth. I'll wait to see the other projection systems (ZIPS, PECOTA and a new revamped Oliver coming soon to THT), but right now I'm feeling very optimistic about this team.
You did good Mo, you did good.
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i'm guessing the WAR totals for the position players don't include positional adjustment?
or have you included that in the “defense” column?
I really can’t make much sense of Luddy’s defensive projection being half a win less than Holliday’s.
To me, intuitively, the bullpen WAR seems high. I’d be pretty amazed if some of those players end up being significantly above replacement, really.
Why is Stavinoha on the bench ahead of Craig? I see pretty much no chance of that happening, and Craig is liable to be better than replacement level, I’d have thought.
I also think you need to add a few more innings to the rotation somehow – if Boggs is just throwing 50IP (and starting the year in the pen?), it’s hard to see how we make up for the fact that Carp’s only throwing 130, Lohse 150, Penny 160 and Jaime 140. There’s a good 100 or so innings that need to come from somewhere else there, even given a low IP/GS projection.
Still – I think your summation (a 90-win team) sounds about right to me. Nice post!
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
here’s a good 100 or so innings that need to come from somewhere else there, even given a low IP/GS projection.
Our total IP from the players listed above is actually in the low 1200s, about 250 innings short of what the average team throws in a season. Assuming the projections that account for injury are a bit low (between Penny, Waino, and Lohse, I think the 500 innings total is quite pessimistic, and Boggs will probably make a handful of starts as well), we can probably assume our shortfall is somewhere closer to 150. That still leaves 150 innings to be sucked (and I do mean sucked) up by the 2010 version of PK.
If we sign an innings-eating starter (Garland, Davis, Odalis Perez, Looper, Washburn), we could probably get these innings taken care of at just below league average for around 1-3M. Because the total isn’t too high, however, we could also sign a high-upside injury risk like Sheets, Smoltz, or (not my preference) Bedard. We also have the option of making Boggs/Hawksworth our long men/PKers, and signing an arm or two to really be good in the bullpen. Calero comes to mind, but I’m sure there are a handful of others (I love Mark DiFelice, and Chan Ho Park seems like a decent guy).
I doubt Joe Mather (wrist) or Nick Stavinoha (Chair) will be primary bench personnel, probably replaced by Craig (fingers crossed) and maybe Jay.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Washburn
has Scott Ourobouros as an agent, and he just turned down an $8 mil K for one year from the Twins. Agent 00satan is looking for more years, apparenlty (and I’m sure, more $). I don’t see the Cards spending that much on someone who projects as league average when they’re already overpaying Lohse. I’d love to have a lefty in our rotation, but not at that price (hmm, “not at that price”….. that sorta sounds familiar).
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 10, 2010 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
*apparently
Asshat.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 10, 2010 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
there is another lefty out there
that could be had for a relatively cheap price, and he already knows most of the guys on this team!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Rick Ankiel?
NOOOoooooo.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 11, 2010 1:32 AM EST up reply actions
...
he just turned down an $8 mil K for one year from the Twins.
Source?
by vivaelpujols on Jan 10, 2010 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
My bad
It was $5 mil according to my source, as well.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 11, 2010 1:32 AM EST up reply actions
Washburn
probably doesn’t even project as average. You could argue that moving leagues might help him, but at his age (despite his awesome durability) and the fact that he’s been below 2 wins quite often in the last couple of years, I’d say he’s a shade below that. I like Garland quite a lot more, I think, if we’re going “cheap-and-slightly-sucky-innings-eater”.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:38 AM EST up reply actions
Garland will not go cheap
There is a definite market for guys who can throw at least 190 innings year in, year out. Garland was coming off a 2008 year in which he had a 4.90 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP, and still got $7.5 mil for last year from the Dodgers. Both of those numbers went lower while his innings went up; I’m betting his salary will go up, too. (Sorry, I don’t do SABRmetrics, so no idea what his ERA+ or WAR was the last two years).
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 11, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
Well,
$7.25 mil, not $7.5 mil.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 11, 2010 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
and it was for the D-Backs
but last off-season was the year in which Kyle Lohse got a $40m deal. I don’t think Garland gets much more than that ($7m), and it’s not implausible he gets a bit less.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 12, 2010 6:30 AM EST up reply actions
If Garland or Davis falls to a $3m/yr value
I’d do that in a heartbeat. I think they’ll both want more, though. Washburn is surely out.
I could be tempted by Looper if he’s only wanting $1-2m (which he really should, after last season). He sucks, but as a 5th starter he’s not bad and I still think he could a job from the pen (albeit probably no better than some internal guys).
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:36 AM EST up reply actions
Luddy's UZR/150
The last two years hasn’t been stellar, and that’s a decent amount of what went into the projection. Additionally he’s in the bottom portion of the Fan’s Scouting Report.
by stevesommer05 on Jan 10, 2010 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
that surprises me, actually
I’ve always thought he grades out pretty well by eye. He’s the best OF thrower of any cardinal in years (although people always over-rate that), seems to have OK range for a corner guy, and catches a lot of what he gets to.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:39 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah without looking at the number's I'd have thought the same
According to UZR at least, the gains of his arm (~5 runs) are canceled out by his lack of range.
by stevesommer05 on Jan 11, 2010 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
I've always thought he looked a little slow out there.
I know he’s not Chris Duncan slow, but he’s no Colby Rasmus, either.
Now with extra feisty!
I think our eye may be more
critical than some other fans in that survey. Some of the sample sizes are astonishingly low. 11 votes and what have you. I don’t know how much Steve weighted the fan vote, but it shouldn’t have been much, IMO.
* is an Asshat
It depends
on service time. It’s basically 125 games of the FSR, 125 games of average (ie 0), and the weighted 3 year total of games.
Also of note the fan vote was used to bin fielders (i.e. top 10, 2nd 10 etc) and the FSR value was the average UZR of the bin.
by stevesommer05 on Jan 11, 2010 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
Yes, I included the positional adjustment in WAR, scaled to plate appearances
Why is Stavinoha on the bench ahead of Craig? I see pretty much no chance of that happening, and Craig is liable to be better than replacement level, I’d have thought.
Brain fart! If you swith Craig and Stav and give him 300 plate appearances, using CHONE’s projections, that adds another win to the club.
For innings in the rotation, I’m assuming that the rest of them will be filled by replacement level pitching. Maybe Boggs is a little higher in the rotation, but probably not that much.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 10, 2010 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
For innings in the rotation, I’m assuming that the rest of them will be filled by replacement level pitching. Maybe Boggs is a little higher in the rotation, but probably not that much.
That’s probably fair, actually.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:40 AM EST up reply actions
90 wins? I'm in
Damn man, why’d you have to go and remind me that Stavinfection is still on the team? Nearly forgot about him.
Besides the keeping-my-fingers-crossed/I-know-you-can-do-it-buddy potential of a break-out by Rasmus…
I think Lohse can outperform the projections. 2008 numbers may too much to expect, but improving on 2009 wouldn’t be that difficult (at least off the top of my head).
If there is middle ground between Lohse/2008 and Lohse/2009, where might put him in WAR? No need to run numbers, but could someone ballpark that?
They say sing while you slave but I just get bored
nevermind me
found it. I guess 1.9 is a nice middle ground for Lohse.
Ok, new directive for Lohse. Forget the middle ground and pitch like you did in 2008.
No pressure.
They say sing while you slave but I just get bored
by Scarecrow7775 on Jan 10, 2010 8:26 AM EST up reply actions
I think Lohse is about average
to be honest, I really like all the projections for our SPs here. I agree that Carp remains a big injury risk (130 IP is probably the mean, but not the mode, for his likely 2010), I like the projection for Penny, and i think waino’s is about right. My only issue is I wonder if Garcia’s is a bit bullish (especially the IP total) but time will tell. I remain a big Garcia believer, anyhow.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 10, 2010 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
do you think it's bullish
because he’s the #5 or because he’s a young’un and might make trips to Memphis or the pen or for some other reason?
They say sing while you slave but I just get bored
by Scarecrow7775 on Jan 10, 2010 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
I doubt the Cards know
what will happen, but my guess is that they’re hopeful that Garcia will be # 5.
I’m down for 90 wins. 95-100 would be great.
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
SIGN FELIPE LOPEZ & JOHN SMOLTZ!
He's coming back from major surgery (TJ) and only threw about 30 innings last year
I don’t believe he’s ever exceeded that innings total in the minor leagues, and surely they’ll be fairly careful with his arm for those reasons. I also think that this projection is pro-rating him at slightly above average; that seems a little aggressive to me, even though I think that’s what he’ll be long-term. He wasn’t very good last time he was in the majors, and he’s been injured for most of the interim.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:41 AM EST up reply actions
Lugo
I thought the Cardinals still owe him the league minimum…so chalk up $0.4M more to payroll if I’m right.
you're right.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 10, 2010 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
Then subtract it again..
Skip won’t get $3 mill. Kelly Johnson only got $2.8 mill coming off a really good 2008 season.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
also, VEP
using your procedure that you described above, who adds more wins to the team, pencilling in John Smoltz for, say, 80IP as a starter and 20IP as a reliever (or using your method for estimating innings; I wonder if 100IP isn’t even a bit of an over-estimate), or Felipe Lopez for to eat, say, half of Freese’s 3B innings and all of the non-skip 2B innings?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
Smoltz is probably projectable around 1.5 WAR in 100 innings,
and Lopez is probably a 2.5 WAR player, assuming he accrues six-something PA’s and stays around average for defense.
The trickier part is calculating what you’re losing. Lopez replaces Lugo almost completely, Freese mostly, and subtracts a bit from other players. This is probably a loss of around 1.5 WAR. The marginal gain here is 1 WAR, although Lopez seems to have a good amount of upside and in some ways he’s a surer bet than our rookies. He’s worth 3-5M to us.
Smoltz replaces Jamie, I suppose, though he doesn’t replace him completely, and he’d really serve best if he was replacing Kinney/Hawksworth. The innings he throws for us are (IMO) going to be in the place of replacement-level players for the most part, and I think it’s actually a benefit that Jamie gets to spend a bit more time down south. Smoltz also has a fair amount of upside, considering his potential to just dominate, but he’s also like 57 and has had at least seventeen surgeries. It’s a bit feast-or-famine with him, since a healthy Smoltz could be a 3.7 xFIP starter for 150 innings, and an unhealthy Smoltz requires a third shoulder surgery after 17 innings. He’s worth 1-1.5 WAR to us, and around $5M with a bit of that not guaranteed since he’s risky.
I kind of wish we had signed Myers.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Jan 10, 2010 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Myers would've made a lot of sense
my personal wish was Justin Duscherer. He falls in the “slightly more risky” category, but he’s been good in the pen AND in the rotation in his career, and signed for even less than Myers. I’m pretty sure we could’ve got him and still had money to perhaps LOOK at Lopez, and, if not, we could certainly have added Calero and our choice of another LH bat (Church?) or a righty backup guy who could play CF (Kearns). In fact, my preference would’ve been to get Duchscherer (~$3.5m guaranteed, as he signed for $2m + incentives for the A’s), Hinske (signed for $1.5m for the Braves, potential for ABs at 3B against righties, and some ABs from the bench & as 4th OFer), Kearns (signed a MiL deal for the league minimum, we could probably have got him for a few 100k more) and still have $1-2m to throw at Calero or Springer. I think that would address all our potential issues and still be under budget.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:48 AM EST up reply actions
I'd like to see where we could gain the most WAR as well, Smoltz vs. Lopez
And then throw in another scenario: Dotel instead of Kinney in the bullpen.
Also, with the current market and this payroll as you have it displayed, I’m beginning to think Lopez and either Smoltz or Dotel would be possible. Maybe that’s just wishful thinking.
Excellent posts by VEP and tom s this weekend.
by pitchingandefense on Jan 10, 2010 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
I think you're right about the market-
is Floppy really going to cost more than $4M? People seem to think so, but I’m not sure that’s the case.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Floppy for less than $4M would be great for this team.
Put Schu and Floppy on base better than 35% of the time in front of Albert, and Holliday and Luddy behind him for the entire year. Wow.
by pitchingandefense on Jan 10, 2010 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
a flop
personally, I don’t want him for the minimum. He’s a bad apple, and not baseball intelligent.
Smoltz, on the other hand is, well John Smoltz. I don’t want him starting tho, unless it for the first six weeks or so and he KNOWS it is going to be that. He would solidify our pen something fierce, and that is a better priority for spending money than getting even a floppy-LIKE player. (Freese, Craig and Gotay are fine by me.)
And if floppy himself is a Cardinal, I may puke.
I agree he can be bumbly
But I’m surprised by the amount of hate Floppy gets around these parts. Did everyone forget that he hit .385/.426/.538 in his short stint with us? I mean, he booted a few balls and threw to the wrong base at least once, sure, but he was on base 42% of the time!
I dunno. I’m not totally sold on Floppy either, mostly because I don’t think he’ll recreate his 2009 walk rate, but the idea that he’s a “bad apple” is, to me, a bit unfair.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
My only concern with the "smoltz as closer" idea
(which I really like otherwise) is this – can the 43-year-old John Smoltz, who has had to miss the occasional start even when he’s been healthy in the last couple of years due to aches-and-pains, really take the ball 3-4 times a week, and sometimes on consecutive days, from the bullpen?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:50 AM EST up reply actions
Does the chart above declare LaRue
to be the worst contract on the team? Doesn’t he get anything for awesome facial hair?
+ Carp's BFF
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jan 10, 2010 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
anything? don't chicks with lots of tattoos count as "anything"?
oh, you mean in the WAR calculations? no.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
yah, he's probably replacement-level
but we don’t have a catcher that good in AAA, so it makes sense to give him that deal. Chone projects Pags-Lite to be WAYYY below replacement, and Anderson to be a bit below (also I think Anderson could regain some value with a full season in AAA, so there’s certainly value in NOT having him as backup).
Sometimes paying replacement-level money for replacement-level players is a smart idea.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:51 AM EST up reply actions
"blowing a pornstar sized wad"
::money shot::
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
pulled a smile out of my hangover on a sunday morning
by I miss Jack Buck on Jan 10, 2010 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
I've graduated from hangovers
to still being drunk.
Sold out Arch Rival Roller Girl season opener last night. Epic after party…. suppressed after-after party. Roller Girls make excellent wingmen if you’re trying to pick up gay dudes :-(
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
I heard that The Breeders filmed a video with the Arch Rivals
Sad that I missed out on that. I love me some Deal sisters.
Was that during a match, or was it a closed session?
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
by The Continental on Jan 10, 2010 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
the breeders vid is AWESOME!
they came to STL and they filmed it at our practice rink, the skatium so it was a “closed set”. Outside of the actual fighting everything else is pretty much real life….even though Enya Nightmare kick a girl in her face with her skate last night….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJAYQ2rrkdQ
Features a lot of the girls: Enya Nightmare, Joanie Rollmoan, Ms Lippy, Julia Ghoulia (she’s the one with the blood tears makeup), and the ref jumping over people is from men’s derby, Magnum P.I.m.p.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
Good post VEP
but I disagree with you on one thing – Floppy. He was good for us a couple of years ago, and while he may be about the same defensively as Freese, I would take his offense over Freese’s. We could use Floppy as a utility guy like we did 2 years ago.
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
SIGN FELIPE LOPEZ & JOHN SMOLTZ!
Right, I don't have a problem with him as a player, he's much better than Lugo
The question is whether or not he’s better than Smoltz an we could sign him for a low-ish salary.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 10, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
I suggested that the Cards
try to sign Lopez & Smoltz for a combined $8M (Lopez 3, Smoltz 5 or something along that line). Don’t know if it can happen, but we can dream.
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
SIGN FELIPE LOPEZ & JOHN SMOLTZ!
Like I said
maybe that can’t happen, but it would be nice.
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
SIGN FELIPE LOPEZ & JOHN SMOLTZ!
It's just funny that you would assign specific numbers to it.
But hey – I’d love to have Lopez and Smoltz for 8M combined.
Now with extra feisty!
I think Freese will be better at D
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 10, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
floppy's got great range at 3B
wayyyyy better than DeRo, who was basically a scarecrow from what I recall. He boots a lot of balls and has an unsure glove, but he’ll get to like 15-20 balls over the course of a year that DeRosa won’t reach. Even if he boots 5 that DeRosa WILL reach and field cleanly, that’s still a net gain, even though (by your or my eye) it looks like DeRo is the “better” defender because he makes fewer mistakes.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:53 AM EST up reply actions
I've never seen anything from Freese that made me think he was a plus defender at 3rd
It was always one of the more perplexing things about him for me. Very average defender, imo.
Think; It's not illegal yet.
thanks, vep
I was just wondering what our projected WAR looked like now that we had signed Matt – thanks for your efforts
Freese
doesn’t Chone have Freese as closer to a 2 win player? 1.8 – 2 WAR, something like that? Is the difference that you’re using those UZR projections?
Also, I’m really starting to like the idea of Endy Chavez in the OF. He’s a lefty and can play all 3 OF positions extremely well. Add Kiko Calero to the pen. Those 2 can’t cost more than $2.5 M which leaves us w/ a few pennies leftover.
It's not the UZR
I don’t believe I have any Freese projections as he wouldn’t have had the requisite service time I don’t believe. I think the difference between the 2 and VEPs ~1.5 is playing time.
by stevesommer05 on Jan 10, 2010 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
Chone has Freese at 1.8 WAR,
on the strength of average defense and above average offense and 112 games of playing time. That means Chone actually things Freese is around the same talent level as Floppy- 2.5 WAR or so, given a full-time job.
Also, from what I’ve heard, Freese is supposed to be above average on defense, and I’m not sure he’s really projectable as above average on offense. In that case, he could easily be a 3 WAR player.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I used CHONE's defensive projection for Freese
CHONE projected more PA out of him, so his WAR is a little bit lower than CHONE projects.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 10, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
signing endy would be a bad pr move
it probably makes good baseball sence, i don’t see many fans opening their arms to a guy who almost sealed the loss for the Cards in game 7 of the lcs. now i could be totally wrong here & not giving the fans much credit. but i can’t see many fans warming up to the guy
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
if he had caught Yadi's HR, too
I could see it. but we won, and therefore all is forgiven.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
i don't know, it would bug the crap out of me to see that replay over & over again
which is what they would do every time he comes in the game
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
I severely doubt that
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Jan 11, 2010 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
They wouldn't do that if was playing for us.
Maybe only the first time. But after that it would be over.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Jan 11, 2010 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
if he does sign with the Cards, i put the over under of that clip being played at 75
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
Exactly
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Jan 11, 2010 10:00 AM EST up reply actions
VEP........
following your link chones R/150, shows Albert @ 51, not 53. And actually looking at it, none of them match up. Did you make an adjustment?
* is an Asshat
updated link
I think there have been some updates Linky
by stevesommer05 on Jan 10, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
btw,loved the post about Edmonds over at PAH9
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
ah, that was a Erik post
GREAT POST ERIK!
yes, I did mean to yell
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Nice post
Sheets for #5? I figure if we could get him for 1Y 10M and defer three until 2020 or something that would get er done.
I'd much rather go after
Bedard. I’m not sure what his asking price is, but I imagine it isn’t huge. After just a quick look at his stats, even through all the injuries, his numbers have been pretty stable. If he can stay on the field, he has the potential to be absolutely nasty.
by tireinhardt6 on Jan 10, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
Sheets
has the higher upside, if he gets there, while Smoltz is the more flexible option. I think bullpen help is the higher priority here, given the lack of SO ability. Bedard could be an option if we pick up a potential set up guy to spell for Franklin, and the best option out there is Kiko Calero. Plus, I miss saying Kiko Calero.
Dots Miller for HOF. 'cuz a name means everything!
by Oedipa Maas on Jan 10, 2010 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure I agree
that sheets has a higher upside than bedard. Sheets’s K/9 has been way down from his big ‘04 season and I’m not really comfortable with paying him anywhere close to what he is demanding coming off not having pitched at all in ‘09. If Bedard truly is healthy this season (a major question, i know, and it is pretty weird that no one knows when he’ll be ready), he has a better shot at reaching his peak performance than sheets. Obviously, both are huge injury risks, but I’d bet on Bedard returning to form more than Sheets, and i like that we probably wouldn’t have to pay him as much. Though, I do agree that Smoltz is the more versatile and preferable option, but how much is he asking for?
by tireinhardt6 on Jan 10, 2010 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
Both Sheets and Bedard
a big risk types, and neither is preferable to Smoltzy in my opinion. I do take your point about Bedard’s consistency over Sheets. But it all maybe irrelevant if we don’t shore up the pen.
Dots Miller for HOF. 'cuz a name means everything!
here is how I rank the three (Sheets>Smoltz>Bedard)
1.Sheets- because I can see him becoming a type B or A FA at the end of the season.
2.Smoltz-Because he might retire, so the sheets gamble looks better.
3.Bedard I heard might be out until August, which eliminates him as an option(it would be Mulder ’08 all over again.)
I am the Batman
am I the only one that thinks Smoltz is not going to be very effective this season?
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 10, 2010 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
probably not
but this may be a “better than suck” train of thought going on.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
JOHN SMOLTZ - BETTER THAN SUCK!
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 7:01 AM EST up reply actions
catchy
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jan 11, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
Bedard is a much bigger risk than Sheets IMO
Sheets has had TJ, which has a very good recovery rate, and when he HAS been healthy, he’s been a good bet to take the ball every 5th day. Bedard’s had shoulder trouble (I think he had a labrum tear, which is what Mark Mulder had, gulp…) and doesn’t appear to be fit for the start of the year, so he has zero chance of making 25+ starts. I could see Bedard not starting a single game this year, tbh.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 7:00 AM EST up reply actions
the thing is, when will Bedard be able to pitch?
I have heard he might not be ready until the ASB, but this little blurb says may is possible.
what I really dont like is the last paragraph on Sheets:
bq . Speaking of oft-injured pitchers, MacPhail requested the medical records for free agent right-hander Ben Sheets, but never received them. That’s probably a sign that he won’t pitch for them.
Is Sheets really not giving prospective employers his medical records, or does he just not want to even think about signing with the O’s?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
dangit VEP, now I have to reread the whole post in Brendan Ryan's voice.
good work. kudos for the table wrangling in SBN, too.
Boog’s offense has got to be better. Screw the HOF, if Big Mac doesn’t make a dent in that projection, I’m not gonna be happy. (What have you done for us lately!)
also thanks a lot, now I have to check to see if I put chair in the glossary. if not it’ll go into the next mythical update.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
What is Boston wanting for Lowell?
Why not try to swing a deal where they pay for all but about $3M of the salary. I haven’t followed his situation closely, is he healthy? Could we get away with not giving up a top 10 prospect or so? Am I retarded?
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
I think he's healthy but I think Boston is not willing to bet he'll stay healthy that long.
I’m not either but if we could get him for cheap I think he may be good pick-up. But I have no idea what it would take to get him, I’m no good with that stuff.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Jan 10, 2010 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
There was a trade voided for him
late last year, IIRC. Something about his thumb(I think.)
* is an Asshat
thumb surgery, yo.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jan 10, 2010 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't want to go after Lowell
If he wasn’t hurt, sure, but we’ve got enough guys that are injury-prone to begin with.
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
SIGN FELIPE LOPEZ & JOHN SMOLTZ!
He's not healthy
They tried to trade him and he failed the physical. Some thumb or wrist problem or something. Regardless, he’s basically immobile at this point, so his defense would probably be brutal and his speed has been completely sapped.
I need your discipline / I need your help / I need your discipline / You know once I start I cannot stop myself...
Rangers wanted to give Max Ramirez (who is probably slightly better than Bryan Anderson as a catching prospect)
for him in exactly that deal – Sox eat all but ~$3m of his salary. However, his finger/thumb injury and subsequent surgery put them off.
I think the concern is whether Lowell will be healthy/productive as a 3B this year. There’s a legitimate concern that he might struggle to play in the field that much, so he’s better off on a team with a DH slot (which is where the Rangers probably had him pegged, as they have Michael Young at 3B).
His bat & glove have fallen off a bit in the last couple of years, too. Overall, I guess I’m not that high on Lowell. $3m + a nothing prospect wouldn’t be too bad, though.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 7:04 AM EST up reply actions
Good post!
I actually read it and pretty much understood it! Yay me! And yay you for making it easy for me to understand.
A Colby breakout season… that’s going to happen right? I mean it has to right? Please tell me I’m right.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
you're the one teaching him
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jan 10, 2010 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
i thought she quit?
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
Well you know...
conflict of interest and all. Tony found out and complained.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Jan 11, 2010 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
just another case of the man keeping you down
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
Thanks.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Jan 11, 2010 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
* tweeted.
Aroldis Chapman has agreed to a $30MM with an unknown National League team
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
it can't be the Marlins at 30M, can it?
So if that number is correct, I’m just freakin shocked.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
it could be
if the payments are spread out over 30 years and he’s only gonna be under contract for 5 or so.
not a chance
most people say that the league he was playing in in cuba is about equivalent to low A ball. baffles me that anyone would give a $30MM contract for that. strasburg didn’t even get that much!
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
he's still not worth it
strasburg could be league average in MLB next season. i don’t think chapman could handle AAA right now. i think the yankees not signing him speaks volumes
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
did you say that wearing a smoking jacket and smoking a pipe?
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
No smoking jacket, but I am wearing an ascot.
Now with extra feisty!
by spants on Jan 10, 2010 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
She'd also need a half conscious hunting beagle curled around her feet
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Jan 10, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Cat curled next to me on my couch.
I mean, on the arm of my leather wingback.
Now with extra feisty!
Dr. Claw!?!
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Jan 10, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
that sounds suspect. Who tweeted it?
Rosenthal? It’s gotta be Rosenthal
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Jan 10, 2010 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Ah!
so close
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Jan 10, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
Well, he is a pillar of the
sports journalism community. I’m sure it must be correct.
* is an Asshat
your fave, RiverRat
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
SIGN FELIPE LOPEZ & JOHN SMOLTZ!
Mets, Dodgers, Cardinals, Phillies.
Those are the big four. Maybe the Cubs, but I can’t see them spending that kind of scratch.
Now with extra feisty!
Not the Cards
I don’t think they’d be willing to spend that much after Holliday. Of the big 4 spants suggested, I’d say Mets or Phils.
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
SIGN FELIPE LOPEZ & JOHN SMOLTZ!
I meant big four in terms of spending. I should've said that.
The Dodgers, Cards, and Phils were never connected to Chapman.
Now with extra feisty!
and the Nats
makes kind of sense, in a rebuilding way. They do have a high ceiling type guy on the way in a couple of years.
Dots Miller for HOF. 'cuz a name means everything!
Well... Maybe not.
From NBC Sports:
There’s a tweet circulating from someone claiming to be Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports that says the following:
Cuban LHP Aroldis Chapman agrees to $30M deal with National League team, according to source. Left Ft. Lauderdale airport this a.m. to sign.
I’m posting this with the caveat that the account was just created and people have been burned with similar reports in the past.
Now with extra feisty!
haha
Nevermind. Appears legit.
Few NL teams beyond the Marlins have been linked to Chapman. The Houston Astros and Washington Nationals sent their general managers to the workout. The New York Mets are an intriguing possibility as well, fulfilling Chapman’s desire to play in a big city. The Cincinnati Reds were "going after him like crazy," according to a source, but were skeptical about landing him.
Now with extra feisty!
Sounds like it's the Reds.
Holy sh*t.
From @JeffPassan “Non-stop Delta flight left FLL for Cincinnati at 9:20 this morning. Another source said $30 million deal is for five years.”
Now with extra feisty!
HFS ®
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
haha. it's not the Nationals. relief!
http://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/7600049979
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
yeah. i was jokin'
it’s past noon, let’s see if i’ve got a beverage….
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
sounds like the reds pt. 2
Narrowed it down: It’s an NL Central team. Cincinnati making more and more sense. Reds “going after him like crazy,” team source said.
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
SIGN FELIPE LOPEZ & JOHN SMOLTZ!
I just told the fella
and he said, “Well, the Reds have gotta have somebody, don’t they?”
Dots Miller for HOF. 'cuz a name means everything!
It looks like he is going to the Reds
It makes sense. As a former Commie it makes sense he would feel at most home playing for the Reds.
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 10, 2010 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
i laughed.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
it's the reds
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/01/aroldis-chapman-agrees-to-30mm-deal.html
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
KBot going to the Rangers
via MLBTR: “The Rangers agreed to terms with infielder Khalil Greene on a one-year deal worth $750K, reports MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. He’ll serve as a utility infielder.”
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
SIGN FELIPE LOPEZ & JOHN SMOLTZ!
FYP
He’ll serve as be on the roster a utility infielder.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
covered yesterday
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2010/1/9/1241815/the-last-pennies-in-the-jar#28557070
and probably a couple of days before, IIRC
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
As noted above, why no Allen Craig
Anyway, it is a fine post. I have been say for a while, the 2010 Cardinals project pretty well. Although I’d feel better if we could sign a pitcher.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
yeah
craig is on the roster, and unless he does horrible in ST I think he will make the team
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 10, 2010 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
isn't carp making 14.5?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
ah
i see he did that with holliday, too. i don’t hink it’s fair to subtract all the deferred money. something like 16 for holliday and 13.5 for carp would be more realistic
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
The whole point of deferred money is to free up more money today.
I think it makes sense to subtract the deferred money, at least for roster matrix purposes.
Now with extra feisty!
and the amount of money freed up today
(also known as present day value) is not the full amount of the deferment. that aren’t just going to wait until 2020 to start paying matt that deferment. it comes out of years 2010-2016 payroll and needs to be accounted for
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
There's two seperate questions...
if you want to know how much the Cardinals are spending, then you include the deferred money. VEP is looking at how much they have to spend, and he’s just focusing on cash out the door this year.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
but there's more cash out the door
to holliday than $15MM. it’s a lot closer to 16
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
okay.
link?
according to the player’s union, the present day value of the contract sits at $16.2MM per year
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
I don't remember where I read it.
But that article says “The Cardinals’ present-day assessment will be less than that of the union, because it uses a higher discount rate.” What does that mean?
Now with extra feisty!
i'm assuming here
but my guess is that that means the union is estimating holliday picking up more of the incentives than the cards are. like i doubt the cards are projecting him to ever win an mvp, etc
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
The article also actually
says “Holliday will be making salaries of $17 million for seven seasons, and of that, $2 million is deferred without interest, which reduces the present-day value.” Doesn’t that mean he’s making $15 million per season?
Now with extra feisty!
Sort of
It’s basically 15 now + 2 deferred is approximately 16.2 now where the discount rate is how you get from 2 in the future being 1.2 now (which is why a different discount rate alters the present value)… granted this is me trying to remember the present value of money stuff I’ve learned in the past, so take it with a minor grain of salt
by stevesommer05 on Jan 10, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
you have to consider the level of interest of the money saved
If you go buy financial markets it will be much lower if the Cardinals invest in the organization. The organization return rate has been about 9% a year over the last 10 year avg.
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 10, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
right
I was just using the 16.2 number from above. No idea what it actually would be…
by stevesommer05 on Jan 10, 2010 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
the club is giving him $15MM per season, but they also need to set aside fund to pay him between 2020 and 2029
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
maybe or maybe not
Setting aside money means taking money outside the organization. It makes more sense to take that $2M and reinvest it into the Cardinals. They would end up getting better rates.
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 10, 2010 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
i don't know what this means
i wasn’t necessari;y implying what they were doing with the funds. i’m just saying that even though matt holliday only gets $15MM per season, his cost to the cardinals each of his 7 (or 8) season will be greater than that. probably around $16MM
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
or they buy an annuity
inflation and prime being what they are, it makes no financial sense to actually invest the money in an account to pay him outside of real 2020 cash flow
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
i don't really know what this means either
i just know they take some money they have today, do something with and later they have more of it. that’s about the extent of my finance knowledge
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
BREAKING NEWS
Prophetjohn new CEO of Bank of America
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 10, 2010 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
just check ghe options when you win the lottery
so much per year for so many years, or
cash now
this will tell the true depreciation rate for a dollar today
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
First time I have looked at likely roster
- Looks like a bench with no upside, where’s Craig? Bullpen looks like it will need strong starting pitching to avoid collapse
-
— I think you are likely to see Boggs rather than Garcia in the rotation
Brett Myers would have been nice at the price he came in at, and I’d still like to see them take a run at Pedro but all in all, that’s not a bad team to start seson with
Just win
I think 90 wins with this team is very possible
I think 94-95 wins would be my guesstimate… Brendan Ryan, Ludwick, and Lohse probably won’t have too much difficulty outperforming those predictions, and we will probably add another player. any of sheets, calero, valverde, lopez would be nice
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 10, 2010 2:15 PM EST reply actions
i would do more than that
but not sure what
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
write this down, 118 wins
you heard it here first
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
We all know that's only possible
if Ditka is managing the team…
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story." - Bob Gibson
Interesting Read
While it is a poor idea for the city to pay for new sport stadiums
Good article talking about Cincinnati being near bankruptcy because they are trying to paid off stadiums for the Reds and the Bengals.
Interesting read
I live in the Sacramento region and the is lots of fuss about a new arena for the Kings.
Don't ping my cheese with your bandwidth.
by RosevilleRedbird on Jan 10, 2010 4:47 PM EST reply actions
interesting read
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
So yet again, this begs a question.
Chapman will roughly make 6 million a year, while Strasburg is stuck at about 3.75 a year. That’s a hell of a discrepancy when you are talking minor league contracts. So why are international players able to just sign with whomever they want?
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
I phrased the question wrong
I apologize. I meant to ask why doesn’t the MLB force these players into the draft?
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
it's is not in the Basic Agreement
there is talk of the players and owners agreeing to it being in the next one.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
i guess partly there's a likelihood that no NPB players would be interested in coming over, then
although I suppose they could sign for monstrous signing bonuses. No Japanese player making a few million a year playing for the Yakult Swallows or whoever is going to want to come and play for minor league money/league minimum for 3 years.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 7:09 AM EST up reply actions
That's a fair point
I was under the assumption that people in Japan good enough to make a few million a year in Japan would receive at least a decent signing bonus, but that’s a bit idealistic.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
haha, packers
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 10, 2010 5:57 PM EST reply actions
handegg
I forgot my headphones so instead of watching hulu i’m watching handegg….i has a sad :*-(
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
this movie is going to be a wow
http://filmdrunk.uproxx.com/2010/01/yes-please-nick-nolte-has-a-documentary
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 10, 2010 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
woooooo, fitzgerald!
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 10, 2010 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sad that I missed watching the Patriots disintegrate
so it’ll be Ravens-Colts next week, right? That’ll be fun….
yeah, it was a wonderful way to start the day
Ravens and Jets look hard to beat right now. although I’d still pick Chargers over Jets… I don’t like the Colts so I’d say Ravens upset
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 10, 2010 6:40 PM EST up reply actions
Wow. Rosenthal actually has a great column up.
My favorite parts:
Our membership is too bloated, too riddled with voters who do not take the process seriously enough to educate themselves properly.
and:
To vote for the Hall, a writer must be a 10-year member of the BBWAA. But one sports editor from each outlet also is eligible, and so are feature writers and current or former columnists who rarely attend games.The sports editors should be eliminated immediately; they simply do not develop the same feel for the game as writers who cover the sport regularly. Drawing the line on feature writers and columnists would be more difficult; many columnists, in particular, are astute observers of the game. But somehow, the local chapters need to police their memberships more diligently. There has to be a better way.
and finally:
The BBWAA has done a fine job in recent years of adding Web-based writers, including several whose work is strongly influenced by sabermetrics. The next step is to go the other way, trim the fat from the membership, purge those who do not study the game closely enough to warrant Hall of Fame votes.
Why the hell would they let sports editors vote anyway? Those people are mostly too lazy to even do their jobs and look over the columns that go up.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
It is like Driver Licenses exams for old people
They can’t see straight but hell to high water if you try to take their license away. I would love to see some more saber inclined writers included that make judgments based upon their play on the field instead of their supposed moral fiber.
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 10, 2010 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
Ken Rosenthal, you are no longer an asshat... for now
by vivaelpujols on Jan 10, 2010 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
he's more of a gnome.
i am in favor of separate *s getting separate nicknames.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
VEP and i did not plan this weekend's posts to interlace so well.
unintentional synergy ftw!
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
do you guys call each other before you go out
to make sure you’re wearing matching outfits? That would be sweet.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
wonder twin activate?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
need to watch that
saw parts of season 2 and liked it
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 10, 2010 7:14 PM EST up reply actions
i'm disappointed in the first two shows
they’ve lost what made it so fun to watch, it’s like they lost the soul of the show. the second one was better than the first one. but neither one was anywhere close to being as good as one show from the first two seasons.
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
and BAM
we get an underwear scene. Gotta love it.
got back to it in the end
transition was hard, and they could have done better, but i bet it picks up from here…and yea underwear scene
by I miss Jack Buck on Jan 11, 2010 2:37 AM EST up reply actions
Erik has a great post up
at PlayaHard9 about JED’s HOF cred’s. And a great Thurston dig:
In discussion of WAR
Then you find out how much Joe Triple-A would hurt you if given the same opportunity.
He might not have been thinking of him, but I did.
* is an Asshat
Redonkulous
something about it scares me
I don’t care how balanced that bullpen looks, it needs to be upgraded. Please, please, please, MO, get some upgrades for the ‘pen! There are no stand-outs in that crowd, and 1 or 2 of them are needed. People keep arguing for Calero; I wouldn’t mind seeing him back in the BotB uni, but we’d better hurry, ‘cause I don’t think he’s gonna be around for much longer.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 10, 2010 7:49 PM EST reply actions
i quite like octavio
but I think he might come in a little over-priced this year.
He’s also (results-wise) VERY similar to Calero. If we only get one, might as well be Kiko as I imagine he’ll cost ~$2m less. They both terrorize right-handed hitters but give up above-average OBP and SLG to lefties (although neither get absolutely hammered by lefties, they’re both far, far better on the right-hand side).
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 7:12 AM EST up reply actions
yeah, I just noticed, should work now
it is pretty funny!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 10, 2010 8:33 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, it was probably me
just ran across it again and it cracks me up every time
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 10, 2010 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
aw trey wingo why you gotta be like that
no need to be so emphatic bashing stl handegg while praising kurt warner
your name is still trey wingo
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Carp
When I see a projection for him to pitch what looks like half a season (~120 innings, or in this case 130) I can’t help but really wonder if that’s possible. Carp, it seems, is either good for the whole season (05 and 06), majority of the season (04 and 09) or next to nothing at all (03, 07, and 08). I can’t really see him trying to rush back from an injury midseason just to have it recur and take him down for an extra DL stint.
I don’t have any basis on this, just that my concept of Carp is that he’s either there or he’s not – not some middling amount of production/durability. kinda like a 2 true outcomes for pitchers’ health. Anyone else feel this way?
R.P.O.F.Y.M.
130 is the median
everyone feels this way
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Jan 10, 2010 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
i've learned not to feel re: Carpenter
other than intense rage or stone-cold determination
i couldn’t take it otherwise
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jan 10, 2010 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
See, when I look at it
it looks more like a mean. since his breakout (04) he started, in order, 28, 33, 32, 1, 4, and 28 games. anything in between just doesn’t seem like Carp.
R.P.O.F.Y.M.
they said something about TLR being on BBTN tomorrow
if Sabathia doesn’t eat him first
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
a friend of mine mentioned doing a horoscope for Holliday, now that he's in here for the long-haul
where’s andi_k
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I think she is very busy right now.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Jan 11, 2010 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
we've got 7 years to do it
I may get to it before she does, who knows. my stuff to-do has been multiplying since december
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jan 11, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Nick Stavinoha
He doesn’t deserve a spot on the roster at all.
He managed to post a negative 1.3 WAR while receiving only 152 PA in 2008 and 2009. The projections you used are way too optimistic on him, both offensively and defensively. If you give him 300 PA, he’ll severely hurt the team.
Cardinals fan from Korea
I really hope we don't see him this year
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 11, 2010 1:34 AM EST up reply actions
i could have sworn he was released right after the season ended
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
Yes, but
I just wanted to show other VEBers how awful he has been really.
-1.3 WAR over 152 PA is incredible.
Cardinals fan from Korea
Love the chair analogy
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Jan 11, 2010 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
I have two questions that I don't think have been covered yet...
How does 1 WAR per $1M spent relate to the rest of the league for 2010?
How does 1 WAR per $1M spent relate to the past cost per win for the Cardinals and the MLB in general?
I know you kind of alluded to this, but a breakdown of this would be fun to look at to see how our front office is doing in terms of investment per WAR related to the FA market dollars per WAR.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Thanks
for this post VEP. I guess that I am too late, and you may not read this comment. I read the post initially the same day that you posted, but had no comment. Then, while lying in bed last night with insomnia, I started thinking more about it, and I found the post has a lot in it to think about, actually.
It raises a lot of questions, and trying to put myself in management and ownership’s position, how would the questions be answered by them? First, you are saying the 2010 salary is currently around $90m. At the start of the off season, I heard that the team was willing to have a salary level of around $110m. So, here are my questions and assumptions, if the limit of $110 is correct.
Now that Matt is signed, do you (management) assume that we have done a reasonable off-season job, and just wait until spring training to pick up cheap acquisitions to fill the spots that you mention (5th starter etc.), or spend larger amounts of $? Essentially, I am asking, assuming that the WAR above gives us about 90 wins, do we say, OK, that is good enough to win the central division, or try to add more WAR, and at what price.
To illustrate my question, and the thing that came to mind last night, if we still have $20m left to spend, why not spend it on Jo-el? He might cost what, $10-12m (or whatever) if we catch him unsigned around spring training, and can negotiate a 1 or 2 year contract? I think his 2009 WAR was around 4.8, so wouldn’t it be economical to sign him? Or, does management satisfice and say we can win the division without such an expense, and add to the profit bottom line using Garcia, or a cheaper alternative? What about the playoffs? When does paying more money to go deeper into the off season factor in? Or perhaps for management/ownership, that is really not their objective, just ours’ the fans?
Also, if we have $20m available, why not also get Dotel or someone like that, plus the LH off the bench guy that we need (despite Church being gone)?
Again, thanks for the post. It kept me from being bored while not sleeping!
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on Jan 13, 2010 9:00 PM EST reply actions
Don't worry, I search "VEP" in the little box on the right every once on a while
Before you call me egotistical, there are 260 different comments on VEB not made by me with my name in it, so it’s probably a good thing for me to do.
Anyway, you have a lot of good questions. My post next week will focus on playoff probability added and how to best maximize our current resources, so I’m sure a lot of the questions you have will be answered then.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 14, 2010 4:20 AM EST up reply actions
OK
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on Jan 14, 2010 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
but he is our egotistical jerk
so we still love VEP
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
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