A Motte Proposal
by DanUpBaby on Sep 4, 2009 1:30 AM EDT
605 comments
I missed most of yesterday's game, for a variety of reasons, and when I left the Cardinals had their narrow lead. So I was happy to learn, when I finally checked the box score, that it wasn't the bullpen that messed things up (and happier still to learn that it wasn't altogether Smoltz's fault, either.)
Lugo's infield mishaps reminded me we hadn't, to this point, seen much of his infamous defensive inadequacy. It's yet another signal that I do not have a future as a baseball scout; given his range numbers in Boston, which were earth-shatteringly, biblically terrible—he was slow to his left (-10 outs), he was slow to his right (-8), but he was somehow also bad straight on (-1)—I would not have been at all surprised to see him play shortstop from the dugout, or just stand in place with his glove out. But since he's been here I just haven't seen it; he's seemed, at worst, average, of the bad-instincts/good-speed variety. (In my defense UZR and +/- both see him as basically average in his limited time at second base; I don't know how it's happened, but that's what's happened. Presumably it is the inherent superiority of AL ground balls at work.)
#
Given the continued struggles of McClellan, and Hawksworth's reluctance to excite too much, It's been nice to see Jason Motte string together a few good outings. Here's an arbitrary endpoint for you: on August 14 he pitched his second lowest-leveraged game of the year, the ninth inning of a 9-2 win against San Diego. How low leverage was it?
It was so low leveraged that Khalil Greene, Brendan Ryan, Julio Lugo, Mark DeRosa, and Joe Thurston were all playing at the same time! He didn't do very well; Chase Headley hit a long double, Kevin Kouzmanoff hit a long home run, and Motte walked off the field with an ERA of 6.05. The summer could basically be written off—from June 5, when his ERA hit its season low, to that night opponents had hit .354/.433/.756, and swung and missed just eight percent of the time. It was like everyone he pitched to became... Albert Pujols.
Since then he's allowed just one run in those seven innings. Only one of those outings was in a well-leveraged situation, but a few more solid outings will win him confidence almost by default; right now there's just nobody else out there doing any better than he is. It would be interesting to see Jason Motte end up the final winner in the setup man sweepstakes, since he's lost so much, but it wouldn't be out of the question, either—this time last year, you'll remember, he was striking out nearly twice this many batters in Memphis. The PCL is a minor league, but it's not that minor.
While we're on the subject—I have to say that I've found no reason yet to lay Motte's struggles at the feet of Dave Duncan, any more than I would have given Dunc credit for his success; he's simply not a normal pitcher. And certainly there's no visible traces of Duncan's usual meddling on his pitching style. On that bad day in August Motte averaged 96 on his fastball, peaked at 98, and was all over the plate.
It was the prototypical 2009 Motte night, right up to the one swinging strike he managed in his nineteen fastballs; after getting swings and misses on an extreme 25% of his strikes in his 2008 call-up he's pegged the league average (15%) in his second go-around. In fireballer terms, that's the difference between Joel Zumaya 2006 (22%) and 2007 (13%); Rob Dibble 1992 (33%) and 1995 (18%). This is all to say that if your game plan is to go out there and throw it by people, it helps to be able to throw it by people; as of now the intent may be different, but the result is closer to Ryan Franklin (12%) than it is Nolan Ryan.
As for his much-maligned off-speed pitches, which seem to change as much and as often as Yadier Molina's old batting stance, they're apparently of his own invention—
The righthander has been working on expanding his repertoire. He said recently that he's trying to refine his changeup and mix in a slider and cut fastball to go with his fastball, which has been known to top out at 97 mph consistently. Motte said by adopting a two-seam fastball he's willing to give a little on his velocity to gain some on the movement.
The two-seamer is being caught by PitchF/X—it's easy to make the distinction when the four seamer is arrow-straight and a hundred miles an hour—but in his most recent outing he threw exactly one, to 23 four seamers (again averaging 96 mph.) The cutter's harder to pick out, given the inconsistency of his slider, and something else—a curveball or a splitter or a changeup—has started bouncing over the plate at irregular intervals in the last month.
The picture pieced together from all these indiscriminate breaking balls and the weird interviews he's given about them is an odd one for me, as a longtime Cardinals watcher, to consider: here, it seems, we have a pitcher who is not being given enough direction.
Whether Motte's fastball is going to prove this hittable long term is important for the Cardinals down the road, and I'm still optimistic about it; it might be that 2008 was simply his peak, but if nothing else his home run rate will come down from here. But right now the throwers-keep-throwing mentality is causing all the contact of Dave Duncan's best laid plans with none of the supposed benefits. I don't know if Duncan (or Marty Mason) is in charge of Motte's relentless experimentation, but he ought to be.
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Oh please oh please oh please
let him come up with a pitch he calls the Eliminator. I’ve lived most of my life hoping just once to hear a pitcher say it. Jason Motte, you could literally make my long years of waiting pay off.
I cut the sleeves off because it looks awesome. Now get your head in the game!
by the red baron on Sep 4, 2009 3:44 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I would hope that after doing so,
Motte would then come up with some red glasses featuring a skull and cross-bones on them. I realize I’m mixing Ricky Vaughn eras here, but I feel that anyone with an “Eliminator” should also have a silver skull on his glasses.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Sep 4, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Just keep him away from
talent managers who wear leather pants, and make sure he doesn’t go anywhere near Dorn’s wife.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Did you get that thing I sentchya?
Pretty much FML any time Todd Wellemeyer touches a baseball or Joe Thurston runs the bases.
8% fear of the crazy man
might not be crazy enough.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
not bad for a finesse pitcher...
… not so great for a guy who’s trying to blow it past everyone on every pitch.
It's certainly not good if you're route of success...
….is missing bats in large numbers. Merely average will not do.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 4, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Lugo (bury me where they can find me)
His most egregious errors lie in getting the ball out of the glove. Three times now, IIRC. Get the ball out of the glove! It’s like Brendan’s thing with bobbles — except Brendan in the second half is fast enough to still get the runner.
To my eye, the catch-the-ball part hasn’t seemed incredibly atrocious, especially with Skip as a backdrop. Just… something. Get a new glove!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
great photo, momup
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Weird. I had a Mott the Hoople in my car stereo this morning.
by Toledo_STL_fanatic on Sep 4, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Weird. I had a Mott the Hoople in my car stereo this morning.
^CD
by Toledo_STL_fanatic on Sep 4, 2009 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions
So should we call Motte "Young Dude"?
As opposed to Perez’s “Young Pitcher”?
Something tells me Khalil Greene likes this idea.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
lugo aside
In yesterday’s game when Weathers proved he had nothing and was ripe for a BS and Manny Actu was going to let him pitch to Ryan, why was La Russa so intent on getting him out of the game by pinch hitting Shumaker for Ryan, knowing a counter move to a lefty would be made requiring another counter move etc. etc.
Really, Weathers was ready to blow it. He had the match up that was needed.
holy cheeseburgers
“To pull the trigger on Brendan … I’m not really sure,” La Russa said. “In fact, I think it wasn’t a good move to make. I should have let (Ryan) have the at-bat.”
…
What would’ve happened if Brendan Ryan had totally missed the sign from Oquendo and the bench, and started his AB? Haha, wow.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
which he was seconds away from doing
he was on the second shoulder-lick already.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I think I saw Lugo shoulder-licking during his AB
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
they exchanged a jovial high-five
….they’re fusing!
Either that, or Boog is contagious.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Assimilating
Boog is awfully similar to Borg.
Boog of Borg? Lugo of Borg?
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
great. now I'm even more terrified.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
You should be.
Resistance is futile. The Boog will assimilate.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
i think it's late for that
they’re already headed for the alternate timeline.
save yourself if you can
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Hm
Would mirror universe Boog have a goatee, or just the beard part?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
evil Boog was in L.A.
had the goatee.
This entire post has me all turned around, now…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Actually, in a mirror universe,
Bogg would be clean shaven with baggy pants and no stirrups.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 4, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
he would also have hair on his head.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
And can't do DeNiro.
But secretly is DeNIro.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 4, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Tony is wrong here.
Tony La Russa makes decisions based on information that we as fans don’t have. Maybe Ryan’s ankle was still sore from sliding into second. At any rate, it was the right decision, whether it was based on observation, gut, or pitcher-vs.-batter splits.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Sep 4, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions
did you read the whole article?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
No. I was being facetious.
Since SoonerFan hasn’t swung by today, I thought somebody ought to defend Tony La Russa’s decision-making…from Tony La Russa.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
aha
that would be kind of awesome, actually. he could sue himself.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Holy shit.
I just read the whole quote:
“To pull the trigger on Brendan … I’m not really sure,” La Russa said. “In fact, I think it wasn’t a good move to make. I should have let (Ryan) have the at-bat. I’m disappointed in my decision there no matter how it turned out. Albert could have hit a grand slam or Khalil hit a three-run double and it’s not a good decision.”
TLR is wrong. If either of those things had happened, it would have been a great decision because the result would have been great!
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Tony understands
that decision making should be judged by its merits, not its outcome. Huh.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Suddenly
all the things we thought we knew about Tony La Russa…
I’m in a quandry….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
he's never been the same
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
with you, ridgesee
Weathers did not look good. Seems like Weathers has been around forever. I did not realize how much better a pitcher he has been in his thirties than he was in his twenties (B-R link).
Strauss:
The Cardinals rallied on left fielder Matt Holliday’s eighth-inning home run…
That is an oxymor[a]n. We would have rallied but for Holliday’s HR, which killed the rally because HRs are rally-killers.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Thanks Dusty
back to managing the Reds please — Homer Bailey has thrown too well his last 3 starts, time to give him a 140 pitch night to cool that little fucker off.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
dude, you're using a dead body.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
is he going to teach colby how to sell it?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Pitch F/X Sucks
The two-seamer is being caught by PitchF/X—it’s easy to make the distinction when the four seamer is arrow-straight and a hundred miles an hour—but in his most recent outing he threw exactly one, to 23 four seamers (again averaging 96 mph.)
Here’s my core problem with Pitch F/X cropping up again.
Motte threw more than one 2-seamer the other night. He threw at least 3 that I can think of off-hand.
For example, both of the pitched he threw to Prince Fielder in his AB in the 7th were two 2-seamers . Also, pitches 2, 4, and 5 of the Gerut AB in the 8th were 2-seamers. They came in at 92 and 93, not the 96-99 of his 4-seamer. They also tailed between 4 and 6 inches while his 4-seamer is flat.
I don’t know why this is so friggin hard to get right. In this case, the velocities are quite different, which you would think would be a tip-off.
Maybe the guys who are doing the pitch classifying just suck?
MLB, call me and I’ll help you fix your stupid system.
Until you do, real baseball people will continue to regard Pitch F/X as a joke.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
tell MLB to fire Fox until they let us have day games
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
There's a difference between Pitch F/X and Gameday,
but if you’d like to continue to take pride in your ignorance, I can just keep that to myself.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Gameday only shows one 2-seamer, the 5th pitch of the Gerut AB in the 8th.
So obviously they share the same flaw since they are working off of the same core data.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
And nice job dancing around my core point
I don’t know why you insist on defending a system that is so obviously flawed.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Hazel's point is that the pitch classification
isn’t “pitch f/x” it’s gameday. A lot of the analysts on other sites that use this stuff develop their own pitch classifications rather than using gameday.
And, if you think that baseball people aren’t using this, you’re so grossly misinformed. People like Josh Lakl have been snapped up to do this sort of thing for a living.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
DanUp said Pitch F/X so I just went with that
And again you guys are ignoring my core point.
DanUp drew a conclusion based upon a reading of Pitch F/X or Gameday or whatever. The problem is that his conclusion is wrong because the source he relied on is wrong.
Maybe he should have verifier the data, but a good system won’t mislead a user of the system to draw incorrect conclusions.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
And the first rule of usability is to blame the system, not the user
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
I think even Kalk
takes some of it with a grain of salt though, just from reading his analyses. I still think it’s a valuable tool, but like a lot of other tools that we have, shouldn’t be taken for granted.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Sure
there are a lot of adjustments and data cleaning that needs to happen. But the contention that no one in baseball uses this stuff is simply wrong.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I don't disagree
but I think how you look at the raw data is going to determine how much use you get out of it.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
The problem is that you are ignorant- ie you are uninformed about what pitch F/X and gameday actually are.
For instance you said
I don’t know why this is so friggin hard to get right. In this case, the velocities are quite different, which you would think would be a tip-off.
Maybe the guys who are doing the pitch classifying just suck?
This is just laughable when you know that gameday classifies pitches using an algorithm. And then you go further:
MLB, call me and I’ll help you fix your stupid system.
Until you do, real baseball people will continue to regard Pitch F/X as a joke.
The entire idea of “real baseball people” is fallacious and dumb, but you also make an error of terminology when you conflate Gameday- the series of algorithms in the program that Josh Kalk made for MLB.com and Pitch F/X- the sets of cameras in ballparks that record movement, speed, and spin with high fidelity.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Classification
I have read that it’s done by computers, but can be over-ridden by human operators.
And you have yet to ignore my core point, which is that DanUp tried to draw a conclusion based on the data, but came up with a bad conclusion due to the bad data.
Which was my core point.
And if the fidelity is so high, then why can’t it classify pitches correctly when the velocities and movement are so different? I could see missing a couple of the 2-seamers that are on the borderline, but not most of them.
Keep dancing.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Good fucking god.
Literally you took a line from my last sentence, about PFX, and STILL failed to differentiate PFX and gameday. The PFX fidelity does not change the gameday classification.
Danup didn’t look at the PFX data, which JBrew kindly reproduced below. Danup looked at the gameday data, which is run through an algorithm that thinks most of Motte’s 2-seamers were within the margin for 4-seamers.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
And the algorithm is wrong
The algorithm apparently isn’t sensitive enough to detect the critical differences.
The way this works in the real world is that a plus to plus plus pitch moves just enough (usually 3 to 4 inches) to look like it’s going to hit in the sweet spot of the bat but not move so much, or so early, as to obviously be moving. That way you think you’re going to square the ball up and swing, but end up hitting it off-center.
I would LOVE to go up against a team that relies on PFX and similar systems for their advance scouting. I would also absolutely puke if my team was relying on these kinds of systems to decide whether to draft a guy or not.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
You're going to be puking within 5 years then
Again, “baseball people” are drawing information from this, you’re lagging behind on your self appointed “knowing a heck of a lot about baseball” if you can’t figure out how PITCHf/x is useful when used right.
Not afraid to nitpick
I'll take what I can from the Moneyball folks...
…but their current systems aren’t good enough.
That doesn’t mean they won’t get better, but they aren’t good enough at the moment.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Quite honestly
From your comments you just haven’t educated yourself enough on them. You’re picking apart the smallest little detail and saying the whole thing sucks because of that. The pitch classification algorithms are meant to be a guess, look at the stuff yourself and you’ll be able to tell a lot more. At least a handful of big league pitchers and front offices are looking at this stuff already and that number is only going to grow (because it is useful), you can either be a late adopter or figure it out now.
Not afraid to nitpick
I've been looking at it for years
But every time I do I see glaring problems.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Looking at it and understanding it are very different things
The latter is clearly not happening, and you’re on the wrong blog to spout off about how dumb it is to people who do understand it. You’re on the right blog if you want it explained.
Not afraid to nitpick
I understand that the system isn't classifying pitches correctly
It missed five 2-seamers and only caught the most obvious one (which Motte actually mis-threw).
Simple as that.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Once again,
you are conflating a set of algorithms (gameday), with a set of cameras and data (PFX). Please stop.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Gameday relies on PFX for it's core data
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Gameday permutes PFX data according to a "book" on a pitcher,
separating pitches into specific classifications, because it’s easier for casual fans to read “slider” instead of “spin axis 180”.
This has nothing to do with the quality of the data and has more to do with the book provided to the gameday program.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Then the book sucks
But if the book is part of the system, then the system sucks.
Ipso facto and hunky dory.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
But, scouts go off of a book, too.
If you go to scout a pitcher who is known for throwing a slider, mightn’t you mislabel a curveball a slider because it had less vertical break than his normal curveball? I realize that you have extensive training on identifying pitches visually, but isn’t that possible? The same result is possible with a computer that is looking for what a pitcher commonly throws.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
No because the velocity will be different
The nature and amount of the break will also be different.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Your argument is exactly like a scout seeing a pitch,
deciding it was a 4-seamer, looking at the radar gun showing the wrong velocity and deciding the radar gun is wrong.
There are objective measures, with which you have raised no issues, instead repeatedly raising the strawman of gameday as a flaw with PFX.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
It wouldn't happen
The gun is rarely wrong.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
PFX also shows objective data, like a radar gun,
and you are calling PFX crap because a program that permutes that data was wrong.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Holy shit
Captain miss-the-point up in this thread
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Sep 4, 2009 1:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm trying to stay cool here.
But your willful blindness is really taxing.
For the last time. Gameday is a classifaction program. PFX provides the data with which it classifies. Gameday is not perfect- hell, neither is PFX, but a minor SEMANTIC problem with three pitches in one night does not mean the system sucks. In fact, we are using data from PFX to show the flaw in gameday’s book.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Yes, but your whole argument has been
about Dan saying that “Gameday only saw 1 2-seamer” and then that PitchF/X is crap, because your trained scout go-go-gadget eye can see everything.
[Sorry Dan for this huge argument from such a simple statement, most people accept that Gameday may be wrong occasionally but apparently not him.]
J,
we actually had a similar argument a few days ago because TPG said smoltz was obviously throwing a screwball and gameday was classifying it a splitter.
Even though it is a splitter.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Thrown like a splitter
Moves like a screwball.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Except it doesn't
It moves like a splitter but let’s not get back into that one where everyone once again disagrees with you.
Not afraid to nitpick
I don't understand what Moneyball has to do with either Pitch F/X or Gameday.
“Their” current systems? What?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Pitch F/X is an extension of Moneyball's idea of objectivity
It’s a great idea, but the technology’s not mature yet, at least when it comes to Pitch F/X.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
What is not mature about it?
The measurements are consistent and accurate. All I’m hearing from you is that you love scouting and hate semantics.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Except when pitches get totally and obviously mis-classified
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
PFX is not gameday.
Gameday uses PFX.
Please stop making this error.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Brooksbaseball doesn't use Gameday
Yet pitches are still getting mis-classified?
I wonder why?
Perhaps the error is leaking through somehow.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Please point to an actual error-
your problem earlier was semantic.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Here you go
The two-seamer is being caught by PitchF/X—it’s easy to make the distinction when the four seamer is arrow-straight and a hundred miles an hour—but in his most recent outing he threw exactly one, to 23 four seamers (again averaging 96 mph.)
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
You'll note that it was DanUp who said Pitch F/X
So I assumed he was relying on something other than Gameday.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Semantics again.
I’m quickly losing all respect for you.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Right back at you
My kingdom for an ignore list.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
All I have to go on is what he said
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
If that were actually true
You wouldn’t have said “Pitch F/X sucks.” You would have said that Dan was using it wrong. Instead, you condemned the whole system. Which is why everyone and their mother who read this long argument knows that you didn’t know the difference between Gameday and Pitch F/X and that now you’re talking out of your ass about how you actually assumed Dan was using something other than Gameday, yadda yadda.
Which is a statement from Dan about his interpretation of Gameday (which he called PitchF/X)
He didn’t go back and do any PitchF/X analysis of the actual data.
The PitchF/X system is not broken, only mis-interpreted when users are not fully informed.
But I would argue that...
…that isn’t entirely DanUp’s fault.
The system mislead him.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
That system being Gameday.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
High five!
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Now let's go back to the other thread and argue about race.
That will end well.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Is the technology adolescent?
I don’t understand at all what you are saying here. The technology tracks the pitch’s flight—speed and movement. What Gameday classifies a pitch as really doesn’t have much to do with anything because it is based on formulas that allow for nearly instantaneous labeling. However, you can go back and look at the plotting of the pitches and discern a pattern, as shown below, and determine what was being thrown. This isn’t an either/or proposition. You counted 5 two-seamers. Well, so did Pitch F/X, even if Gameday didn’t. So, it would seem that the immature technology found exactly what your mature eyeballs did.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
The Gameday classification algorithm is inadequate
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Everyone here agrees with this,
that Gameday can be wrong. However, this is separate and distinct from PitchF/X.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Fine
The data is being captured correctly, but isn’t being interpreted correctly.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
EVERYONE AGREES WITH THIS
EVERYONE AGREES THAT IT IS DIFFICULT VIA PITCHF/X TO PICK OUT 2-SEAM VS 4-SEAM.
Tell me, is K-Rod’s pitch a slider or a curveball? Ohhhh wait scouts disagree on what to call it therefore scouts are utterly worthless. That’s the argument you are making and it is dumb.
Not afraid to nitpick
Actually a 2-seamer vs a 4-seamer is pretty obvious
…except on the margin when a pitcher mis-throws one.
You’re ignoring the power curve, which is a hybrid.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Ooooo
But scouts disagree on what to call that pitch so they’re all worthless!
Not afraid to nitpick
I never said that
Scouts are good at classifying pitches. They aren’t so good at analyzing mechanics of getting inside a prospect’s head.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Obviously not!
They are conflicted on whether to call it a slider or a curve, therefore the system is broken and not mature.
Not afraid to nitpick
I will pay attention to scouts in a few years when their craft matures.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Baseball America from 2003
His lightning-quick arm generates 94-96 mph velocity on his fastball with explosive late life. Rodriguez tightened the hard rotation on his breaking ball and became more consistent locating it. He can throw it for a strike to either side of the plate or bury it in the dirt, and hitters have a difficult time reading the pitch until it’s too late. Scouts are split on whether it’s a slider or curveball
They must be worthless if they can’t call a pitch the same thing.
Not afraid to nitpick
Best not bring the mechanics into this
or things could go boom.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
In fact, scouts think smoltz threw a screwball.
Yet it was a splitter. Scouts fail! All hail our new computerized overlords!
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I really don't care how you throw it
All I care about is what it does as it approaches the plate.
Unless how you throw it makes it do something unusually nasty (like Joel’s sinker).
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Barf
So this “plus to plus plus pitch” that moves 3 to 4 inches in the real world, what is it moving 3 to 4 inches from? A straight line? A ball thrown with no spin?
By the way, if scouts are so perfect why do draft picks bust?
Reference point
The reference point is a 4-seamer, which is the flattest pitch out there.
A ball thrown with no spin is a knuckleball, and nobody knows where that’s going to go.
Draft picks bust…
1. Because many scouts are either stupid or lazy. They never get out from behind home plate. They don’t pay attention to the good stuff that Moneyball has to offer.
2. It’s impossible to get a good sense of a guy’s makeup. You can’t know if he’s going to have what it takes to make it in the leagues. He might be soft, etc.
3. Guys can overwhelm lower-tier hitters with velocity, but that doesn’t work at the higher levels.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Which 4-seamer?
Not every one moves the same amount.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
If it's moving, then it's not a 4-seamer
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Learn physics please.
Assertions like this are simply and blatantly false.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Learn aerodynamics and fluid flows, please
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Please read this.
http://webusers.npl.illinois.edu/~a-nathan/pob/ppt/SABR38_June08.ppt
Stop pretending to know physics.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
You need to get out of your basement and get behind a plate
Then tell me what you see.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Everytime you make statements like this
you are only making your argument much less persuasive.
So is AVG still better than OBP Joe Morgan?
No he's not.
I see that a 4-seamer wouldn’t be a bad reference point. It does drop less than most other pitches. Therefore, it is the flattest pitch out there.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Except it's relative. Whose 4-seamer?
Which one? Average? How can a pitch rise relative to a 4-seamer that’s unpossable!?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
He said
that we need to get out of our basements and get behind a plate. I used to pitch and could tell you that a four seamer was my straightest pitch but that doesn’t mean that your fastball would have identical movement.
See numerous other agruments about which 4 seamer would be the best reference.
Then what should be the point of reference?
A lazerbeam attached to a shark?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
A lazerbeam attached to our electronic overlord.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I was talking about the dancing robot from that beck video.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
O you mean Jeff.
Nice robot. Nasty drunk though.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Have you ever been crossed up?
Have you ever seen a ball move 12 inches laterally?
Have you ever had your thumb busted by a really good sinker?
Have you ever had an “Oh, shit” moment when a guy snaps off a REALLY good cutter and you almost miss it completely?
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Look.
It’s obvious from several of your statements that you are simply spouting off on something that you are not educated about.
You believe PFX is Gameday.
You think “Moneyball people” invented PFX.
You think a curveball or any pitch can have a “late break”.
You repeatedly refer to “scouts” and tell us to “get behind the plate” as arguments rather than using logic and evidence.
You think a 4-seam fastball does not move.
One of these is an ad-hominem attack, two of them are physically impossible, and two are just factual errors.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Look Yourself
Gameday relies on data provided by the PFX system. I can draw you a data flow diagram if you’d like.
PFX is an extension of the Moneyball school of thought. Objectivity is a good goal, but it’s not there yet.
Pitches appear to break differently, which is all that matters since we play the game in the real world.
A 4-seamer moves less than any pitch. It’s a relative measure.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
A RELATIVE MEASURE,
except that you were suggesting it be used as a point of reference.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
And were still
left asking which 4- seam fastball? motte’s? zumaya’s? You have to use a theoretical reference point so that it’s fixed.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
But what is wrong with using it as a point of reference?
We were having this conversation the other day when we were looking at pitch charts. We were discussing what should be the baseline, and I remember several of us had varying ideas as to what that baseline should be. What is wrong with Pain measuring other pitches versus a 4-seamer? We have to have some sort of starting point. And your argument is also stupid and baseless, as Pain said “the 4-seamer is the flattest pitch out there” . He never contended that it didn’t move. He said it moved the least.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
What 4-seamer?
You have to use a theoretical model or it’s a moving target and there is no theoretical model for a 4-seam fastball only an empirical one.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Not on his 4-seamer
You throw a 4-seamer to spots because it moves the least (which is very little aside from gravity-induced sink).
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
This is absurd
You contending that EVERY 4-seam fastball that leaves motte’s hand has the same horizontal and vertical movement?
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I'm not convinced that Pitch F/X is capturing lateral movement correctly
The web site says they rely on High 1B and High 3B camera positions (I haven’t looked for them at Busch). That isn’t the greatest location for judging lateral movement, especially when it’s small.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Interesting,
that this is the first time you’ve even mentioned this argument. Perhaps we could find another straw man around here or change the subject again.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
It relies on 4-cameras
Which with geometry gives you where the ball is in 3D space.
Not afraid to nitpick
Actually, it was the presentation Hazel linked to
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
I've read some ridiculous stuff on blogs
but I’m not sure I’ve ever read something so ridiculous, and blatantly (and probably knowingly) false as this.
I got it Flim
I’ll email back today. If it doesn’t recognize names, it goes in the spam folder but I check my spam folder and add contacts and the rest. Thanks.
Sorry, but I have no idea what you are referring to
Too much nesting.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Hit the up button
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 4, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I know I'm late to the party, but...
a quick google search keyed with “understanding pitch F/X” led me to a post at BtB by Sky Kalkman, where the “reference point” utilized in the movement graph is defined as the location where the pitch would end up as explained by the projectile motion equations from Physics I, neglecting spin and knuckling effects. Just sayin’.
Whoa, JBrew, don't go there.
could a computer have predicted that Josh Hamilton would get addicted to cocaine? Scouts and statistics BOTH are both essential in assessing a player’s capibilites, but neither are fool-proof.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
So scouts predicted Josh's addiction?
Oh wait scouts still fail.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Scouts missed Josh Hamilton's drug addiction therefore they're worthless and the system is terrible!
Not afraid to nitpick
Soon Drug Addiction F/X will replace rehab centers!
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Yes, they do.
You’re obviously to worked up to be rational. I am saying that both scouts and statistics can screw up at times.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
I'm not saying to elimiate scouts
just refuting thepainguys argument that PitchF/X can’t be trusted and should be thrown out. I’d agree a mix of both is essential since a computer can’t see mechanics (at least yet, better watch out painguy), but he is grossly mis-interpreting what we can do with this information.
I don't think he said it should be thrown out.
He said it should be refined, because he believes that in its current form, it isn’t a very usefull tool.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
But it is extremely useful for those who know how to use it
I could link to over a hundred articles that have shown its usefulness.
The way this works in the real world is that a plus to plus plus pitch moves just enough (usually 3 to 4 inches) to look like it’s going to hit in the sweet spot of the bat but not move so much, or so early, as to obviously be moving.
That sounds good, but it’s completely fallacious. Pitches move slowly and in the same direction over their entire flight path. They do not “break late” in the same way that they can’t rise- it’s physically impossible.
Also, these are not the moneyball folks. Even your pejorative terms are behind the times.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Tell that to Carlos Beltran
Who’s got that GIF handy?
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Check out this award winning illusion
The spinning of the curveball creates both a physical effect ("the curve") and a perceptual puzzle. The curve arises because the ball’s rotation creates an imbalance of forces on different sides of the ball, which leads to a substantial deflection in the path of the ball. The perceptual puzzle arises because the deflection of the ball should appear gradual, but from the point of view of the batter standing near home plate, the flight of the ball often appears to undergo a dramatic and nearly discontinuous shift in position (this sudden shift is referred to as the curveball’s "break").
That doesn't say that a CV doesn't break
It says that the apparent break is accentuated by the rotation of the seams.
You guys need to get behind a plate and catch some plus curves.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Oh the "play the game" argument
I’ve done this.
If you’d read it, it’s actually saying that “late break” is an optical illusion.
Not afraid to nitpick
I don't care
For whatever reason, there is a huge difference between curves.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
I never said a CU (curveball) doesn't break
but you assert that you can pick out small breaks with your trained eye. Actually read it and you will see that curveballs don’t have that late break that you think.
I was talking about tail
Which is horizontal movement on a FB.
The break of a curve is much easier to see.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Where were you talking about tail?
hazel said that pitches move gradually over their entire flight path and you said where is that gif of Beltran, which obviously means the big curveball from WW.
The article points out that the break is less than what you think your eye sees.
275 posts above
The way this works in the real world is that a plus to plus plus pitch moves just enough (usually 3 to 4 inches) to look like it’s going to hit in the sweet spot of the bat but not move so much, or so early, as to obviously be moving. That way you think you’re going to square the ball up and swing, but end up hitting it off-center.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Pitches move in mostly constant directions and velocities,
there is no late movement.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Maybe not actually, but effectively is all that counts
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
WHICH IS WHAT MY LINK SHOWS
but you clearly said:
but not move so much, or so early, as to obviously be moving
As Christy Matthewson (or whoever) said...
Go stand behind that tree over there and I’ll bean you with my physical impossibility.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Right, because a guy who would have called the internet witchcraft knows a ton about physics.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Sep 4, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The welt on your head would be real
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Considering the only way I'm going to meet Christy is through the use of LSD,
not so much.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Wouldn't it
hit you if it broke at a constant rate?
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
On this point
I agree, I hate PITCHf/x trying to split 2-seam from 4-seam, it can’t be done by judging movement. There’s so much overlap between the two pitches it’s a fool’s errand to try to split them up. Motte has thrown a number of 4-seams this year at 92-93.
But real baseball people already regard PITCHf/x as useful, you’re the one lagging behind if you don’t pick it up. Ask the Tampa Bay Rays front office, Mariners front office, Brian Bannister and Max Scherzer (and I’m sure many, many more who haven’t told the media)…or are they not “baseball people” enough?
PS quoting yourself as a “real” baseball person while claiming ignorance on something that “real” baseball people are already flocking to for information reminds me all too much of Joe Morgan sticking to his guns that AVG and RBI beats OPS (or wOBA but he doesn’t know what that is).
Not afraid to nitpick
Talk to scouts and you'll find that they trust their eyes over Pitch F/X
This is one area where the old school guys have the new school guys beat.
The best scouts combine the old school and new school methods.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Talk to old school guys and they'll tell you about how heart and grit wins championships
The best scouts combine the old school and new school methods.
Exactly.
Not afraid to nitpick
This makes me laugh
Talk to scouts and you’ll find that they trust their eyes over Pitch F/X
This is one area where the old school guys have the new school guys beat.
Can you tell me in less than a second the movement on that curveball, in inches?
Can you tell me the run value of Wainwrights curveball?
Can you tell me the optimal separation between FB and Change-Up velocity?
PitchF/X can: 
Source Dave Allen at Fangraphs
Yes, I Don't Care, 7 to 10 Percent
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Is ignorance really bliss?
First, you are confusing PitchF/X and Gameday. Gameday uses the PitchF/X data to present pretty little graphics that users like you love in near real time. Without PitchF/X all you could follow would be a box score or whatever the stringers in the booth would mark as pitch outcome. Now, Dan was probably wrong is trusting the Gameday classifications, but the PitchF/X system is definitely not broken due to some split second classifications.
Second, it’s not “guys” classifying pitches, its computerized algorithms that have been extensively developed by extremely intelligent individuals. Each player has a designated repertoire that the algorithm uses to classify pitches. Obviously you are smart enough to be able to distinguish a 2-seamer from a 4-seamer, but its possible the “book” on Motte is only 4-seamers; the system will get tweaked and learn his new pitches but it will never be perfect. One piece of information it uses is break, so I present a graphic:
source Brooks Baseball. As you can see pitches overlap so some classification may be wrong. Maybe its so figgin hard to classify pitches because there really isn’t that much different between a 2-seamer and 4-seamer, it really comes down to splitting hairs. How do you know he didn’t just take a little off?
Now, you may be right that he threw about 6 2-seam fastballs the other night. Here is the movement plot:
again, thanks Brooks Baseball. That group of six on the left are probably what you saw, but good PitchF/X analyst would see that and classify them as such. Gameday can only work with what it is told.
Now, since it is such a stupid system why do teams continue to employ people to work with the information and provide Sportvision with funding to improve the system? I believe even some teams (Mariners IIRC) are starting to eliminate some advance scouts in favor of PitchF/X and video. Obviously you are a scout and are biased in your statements.
Lastly, please read up before dismissing something out of hand. Start with these:
Tracking Baseball Pitches Using Video Technology: The PITCHf/x System
PITCHf/x Classification Update
Real-time pitch identification?
Thanks for this.
Judging by that chart, Motte seems to be attempting more 2-seamers than just the one.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
That you were wrong, even with your scouting expertise, on how many he attempted?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
No, I got the number exactly right
I counted 5 above, and would have found 1 more if I had looked for it.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
So 3-5 plus one=exactly right.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
5 + 1 = 6
That’s how many pitches are plotted in the chart.
You can count them yourself.
Here’s my exact quote.
Motte threw more than one 2-seamer the other night. He threw at least 3 that I can think of off-hand,/i>
I guess I confused you by mixing up numerals and words.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
I should also note...
…that the chart above appears to have change-ups mixed in with sliders, which is also wrong.
The dots are too small to say for sure how many change-ups there are, but it looks like there are more than one.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
CU = Change-Up, not Curve
CV = Curve
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Good god
Your method of shorthand is not necessarily the same as someone else’s. Brooksbaseball uses CU for curve, CH for change.
Not afraid to nitpick
It would be helpful it they used standard terminology
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Or you can just not be ignorant and pay attention to what someone is using
Instead of assuming your way is the way everyone else does it.
Not afraid to nitpick
In the chart below...
…the system seems to plot at least 3 change-ups, one of which is an outlier but two of which are literally plotted on top of a pitch that is labeled a slider.
I’m not saying that you can’t design a system that gets this right, but this ain’t it.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Jesus Christ, man
You are the Ming of semantic bullshit. I’m not even participating in the discussion and I’m incredibly frustrated with you. It’s like you can’t actually defend your points in any respectable manner, so you resort to little nit-picky bullshit in hopes that everyone will get so annoyed they stop arguing with you. Congrats
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Sep 4, 2009 2:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It's a standard of abbreviations that you base them off of consonants and not vowels
That’s what the post office does.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Like with Iowa (IA)
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Sep 4, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course there are exceptions
I never said there weren’t.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
yeah, but the point is
who the fuck cares?
you’re dodging the actual argument in favor of tangential semantic bullshit and one can only assume that’s because you’ve looked like such a fool throughout this entire subthread
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Whatever
I thought you had an actual point.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
i don't know
what gave you that impression
thought it was obvious i was just bitching
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
I have a trained eye...
…and can see as little as maybe 2 inches of movement.
Yes, Motte threw some 2-seamers with quite different break (and tilt), but a good system needs to be able to handle this, since it’s important.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
And the system can see it
An algorithm isn’t going to be good at classifying 2-seam vs. 4-seam when it has to work on every pitcher in the big leagues.
You can draw information from a chart like that can’t you.
Not afraid to nitpick
So you are saying that you can pick out
2 inches of movement on TV from a camera behind the pitcher on an elevated platform?
Part of the secret is to watch the catcher's glove
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
So if a catcher accurately predicts the break on a slider
then it didn’t break at all? You’re just introducing more error by interpreting the catcher’s interpretations of the pitcher’s pitch.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
you just need an infinite supply of catchers
who have never seen a pitch before. The errors will cancel eventually
by brackenthebox on Sep 4, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm talking about the tail on FBs, not sliders
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
This simply makes no sense to me
If a catcher doesn’t move his glove how much break is there? If he moves his glove a lot? If he moves it a little? If he guesses wrong? if he guesses right?
I can understand looking at the glove for where you want the ball to END but to determine HOW IT GOT THERE is baffling using the mitt.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
He sets it where he wants it
For a good 4-seamer, he won’t move the glove at all.
If the ball tails, he’ll roll it a bit.
Of course, this isn’t the absolute best way to see tail. Just watch the movement of the ball.
However, if you want to see that balls tail, start watching the flight of the ball combined with what the catcher’s glove does.
This is what I have done with my sons (and daughters) so that they can start seeing tail.
The absolute best way to train you eye to tail is to player catcher. You have to start seeing the tail or you’ll miss a lot of balls.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Your sons are going to be seeing plenty of tail
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
LOL
You’re the best.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Just out of curiosity
Who trained your eye? Do you have some sort of eye degree from an advanced eye institution?
Or are you just tooting your own horn and expecting us to just accept that what you see is “trained”?
by mojowo11 on Sep 4, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I Did
I started out as a catcher, which makes you appreciate movement (when you get crossed up enough)
Once you know it’s there, then you can start looking for it.
Dead CF camera positions help a lot.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
So the key to understanding movement is being crossed up
And also having “started out as a catcher.” Right. If I’d known that was so helpful, I would’ve crossed up my catchers more often over the years, you know, just to heighten their appreciation of pitch movement.
Here’s my equally empty and self-serving argument that makes just as much sense:
I started out (and finished up as!) a pitcher, which makes you appreciate movement (when you’re actually throwing the pitches).
So I guess I have a trained eye, too?
Probably
You at least know it’s there.
Back in the day, I didn’t even know a ball could move horizontally.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
I remember when I threw my first REALLY good cutter...
…I thought my eyes were deceiving me. I had never seen a ball move that much (9 to 12 inches to the left).
Now if I could just throw it consistently.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
You played baseball
We get it
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Sep 4, 2009 2:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm not trying to be obnoxious about this...
…but some of this stuff isn’t obvious unless you’ve played at the higher levels and/or watched a few thousand pitches from behind home plate.
I know I never saw this stuff up until a few years ago.
Most little league fastballs are flat and most little league curves are humpy. Only at the higher levels (even 7th grade and above) do you start to see quality pitching and things like tail and sharp, late movement (or the illusion of it).
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
This message evidently started off the Bizarro Dos Equis Thread
The least interesting thread in the world.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Sep 4, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Brian Bannister used Pitch F/X...
…to turn himself from a terrible pitcher with a rapidly ending ML career to a guy who could legitimately pitch at that level. I guess he doesn’t count though.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 4, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
then again
the year before he was a “terrible pitcher”, he was a good pitcher who claimed that his success w/limited talent was due to his sabermetric knowledge.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
well
I’m referring specifically to the Posnanski interviews, where he claimed to use situational count splits to decide which pitches to throw, or something like that. he thought he could use that to help him beat BABIP. This was in the off-season after 2007, before 2008.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
this must be what happens when you anger the GOBs
http://www.seanengelhardt.com/index.php?/infodesign/mets-2009/
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
link fail
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Motte
In all seriousness, where is Bruce Sutter? WHERE IS HE?!?!?! The Cards retired his number, half our bullpen has goatees and/or beards, even if half of them look more Looney Toons than intimidating.
/not being serious
The kid needs a splitter. Not a cutter, not a slider, not a 2 seam fucking fastball. An effective splitter would make him a pretty tough pitcher to hit. He pounds the strike zone with 96-98 mph 4 seam fastballs and then uses the split as an out pitch. He doesn’t need “movement”, he needs a pitch that get hitters out in front but looks like the fastball. A changeup would be effective too — Trevor Hoffman has proven this. He’s essentially been a fastball/change pitcher and has 500 saves to show for it. I understand it’s a hard pitch to learn, but it should be easier for Motte, because the effective splitters are usually thrown by guys who throw mostly over the top, and Motte does that.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
How big are his hands?
If he can’t handle a Burger King double-cheeseburger, he probably couldn’t handle a splitter…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Doesn't it have more to do
with hand flexibility than size?
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Most guys
who’ve thrown an effective splitter have pretty big hands. Clemens, Darling, Sutter, Smoltz, etc all have pretty big mitts.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
there's a joke here, but I can't put it together.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I'd posit that most MLB players have big hands...
But I get what you’re saying.
I know this is completely different, but I find it telling nonetheless…
I have tiny, delicate hands. Yet I can wedge a tennis ball in there and throw a mediocre split-finger for a strike at a much-shorter distance.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Ron Darling
had so much flexibility in his hands that he could get a softball in between his index and middle fingers on his right hand. It does have a lot to do with flexibility, imo.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I remember seeing Johnny Bench,
hold five baseballs in the same hand at once. I know that has nothing to do with throwing a splitter, just a neat demonstration of flexibility.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 4, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
conservative estimate
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
All great catchers go to heaven?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
for the record, he's still alive
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I honestly wasn't sure if it he was
But I would have said that either way because that song got in my head as I was counting the baseballs.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I've also heard
that when he makes appearances in the radio or TV booths, he is terrific—funny, intelligent, insightful. Basically, the opposite of (fire) Joe Morgan. Even as I criticize Joe the Announcer, I should praise Joe the Citizen, who knows his rights and stands up for them.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
That's what I get for going off memory of a kid.
I could only think of five.
/Note to self: Use the friggin computer for more than a paperweight, dumbass.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 4, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Closest I get to that is
that I can throw a baseball with my feet
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 4, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
hooray! a splitter! spants for setup!
Get down to the bballpark, lady!
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Sep 4, 2009 10:51 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Then he should be working on a change-up
Pedro didn’t have huge hands, and he threw a pretty devastating change-up. Same story with Johan Santana.
I still think you can throw an effective split without huge hands, you just have to work your fingers into the flexibility to stick the ball in between them. The reason I think the split is a good option is that it looks so much like the fastball, and he throws so damn hard that you’re basically guessing as a hitter, and if you guess fastball then you’re going to be out front and swinging over the split.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I know the guy who taught Santana his change
I could give him a call.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Pedro had huge hands
Freakishly large hands for his size. His hands are bigger than his head.
Not afraid to nitpick
And, aren't they incredibly flexible?
I remember seeing something back in his Sawx days, where he is double-jointed or nearly double-jointed, allowing him to grip the ball is unique ways.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I remember him demonstrating his changeup
For local TV. It’s the fact that his fingers are so long that he maintained enough contact with the ball upon its release to slow down its velocity on his change.
by olddomination on Sep 4, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Wait, what happened to Pedro? Did he get burned up in the fire?
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Doesn't that mean he has cancer?
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
Works every time!
We should ask Pedro if he wants to join the Pen Fifteen club.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
A 2-Seamer would give him a tool against lefties
Because he could tail it away from them like a slider (which is what he seems to be playing around with).
But a splitter would also be a good tool.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
I don't see how a slider tails away from lefties
unless you’re Trever Miller.
Here’s why I don’t like the slider as an option for Motte — he doesn’t snap it off like Perez does on his, and hanging sliders get absolutely mashed by opposing hitters because they always seem to end up in the middle of the plate. You can be out in front of a hanging slider and still rip it into the gap for a double. I just don’t have the confidence that he’s ever going to throw an effective slider that doesn’t get mashed from time to time.
With a split, thrown correctly, even if you hang it, it’s probably not going to get hit all that hard because it has that tumbling action, and it may very well end up in the dirt. It’s also hard to pick up out of the delivery, so it’s going to make his fastball more effective because hitters will have to pause a split second longer to make sure they aren’t swinging over top of the splitter. All he really has to change is the grip on the ball, he doesn’t have to throw it with different arm action or learn to snap the ball like the slider. He can just reach back and throw it like a fastball, and the placement in the hand takes care of the rest. Pretty well the same thing with a good circle-change, and that also will tail away from lefties if thrown correctly.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
A 2-seamer thrown by a RHP to a LHB will tail away from them...
…like a slider thrown by a RHP to a RHB.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
That makes more sense...
I guess i just didn’t infer what you were talking about in your comment.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
back in the sixties
a lot of pitchers were throwing what was called a palm ball. I never knew what is was but I think it maybe what is now called a circle change.
Terminology changes over the years. I cant remember when I first heard the term slider. I think it might have come with Bob Gibson. It used to be just hard curves and slow curves and change ups (even slower).
I have heard the arguement before
that Babe Ruth never faced the slider so it is impossible to play the ole “if he played in this era” game. Don’t know how accurate the “no slider” comment is.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Sep 4, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I gotta say, I'm more of a fan of Motte throwing the ole
circle change. Then he doesn’t have to come up with a new mechanic to throw a pitch. He could just change his grip and still use the same motion.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
What do you think a splitter is?
It’s just a change in grip — mechanics are the same.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Yeah, but it either requires having huge hands or
extensive flexibility training. I doubt Motte can train his hand to hold a splitter in the next 2 weeks or so. I’m just suggesting the path of least resistance.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
I'm not talking about tomorrow
If you think he can learn and effective change-up, control it, and throw it with the same arm speed by the middle of September, well, I have some swampland water-view land in Florida to sell you.
I think this is something he should be developing over the winter this year. Either splitter or change, I’d just rather see the splitter as I think it would be more effective for him.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I may always have trouble keeping pitch types straight in my head.
Pitching will probably always seem a little complicated in general to me. However, for those of you who know about this stuff, would you say this infographic is a good visualization of the more common pitch types? I rely on visual aids like this from time to time, it’s a bit more simple than the latest Beyond the Boxscore Pitch fx article.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
That's a cool chart.
I’d say it’s generally pretty accurate. Of course, pitchers’ pitches are like snowflakes, each one is different and unique (and special, like each member of my generation). The other odd thing is that pitchers will call their own pitches a “slider,” for instance, when everyone else thinks it is a “curveball.” To reiterate, though, I think it is pretty solid as a general guide. To me, the biggest problem in deciphering pitches is the different camera positions behind home plate. That can really distort your perception of how a pitch is moving, IMO (as well as your perception of the strike zone).
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I hate the tilted angle that is so common on television
I’ve noticed that the default angle in Gameday mimics this, which is stupid because there is no “dummy pitcher” to get in the way, only a dummy hitter. It’s annoying to have to adjust it every time to be straight on.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
also the common camera angle on TV
allows you you to see what a right hander’s pitches are doing, but with a lefthander you can’t tell much.
Yup
It also makes it look like every lefty’s pitches move about 8 feet horizontally.
It’s interesting to me that a television technique done for superficial reasons became so “normal” that it’s almost the default way to present a batter/pitcher match up.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
The FSN Busch III position is almost dead-on, which is nice
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Yeah, I don't get to actually watch games on FSN much these days
But it’s really nice to see that. It helps me understand what is going on so much better.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Not really
First, is the pitcher a RHP or a LHP?
Second, no RHP’s 4-seamer moves like that. But it would be AWESOME if it did.
Third, I would love to throw a double break 2-seamer, but it’s not going to happen.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
A better way to visualize this is using a clockface
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
I was a little confused about the perspective at first
I assume it is from the batter or catcher POV and a right handed pitcher. Not sure why every pitch begins in the upper right corner like that, makes it look more like a lefty is throwing to me.
Also, the “double break” thing is weird too. The guy is himself not a pitching expert, he was just going for a simple way to visualize it so I suppose he probably made some stylistic choices which hurt accuracy.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
unless the trace of the ball's flight
begins somewhere before the release point?
I'm going to anticipate Albert being walked if Babe Ruth is hitting behind him -Holliday
Maybe
Also I assume that it’s supposed to be a straight-away angle but maybe he was assuming some off-centeredness. Again, obviously it’s not perfect but it seems like at least a good back of the envelope sketch.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I assume it's supposed to be a righty...
…but it looks like a lefty’s release point, in which case the breaks are all wrong.
This is from the catcher’s POV.
Also, there is variability in the way pitches move (known as tilt). For example, Lidge’s slider is generally more of a vertical breaker (like a splitter or power curve), which lets him use it against both lefties and righties.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Right
I think it is supposed to be a righty pitching, but for some reason he uses a weird release point which confuses things.
The simplicity of the style is one of the things I like about it. There is clearly lots of variety between individual pitchers, but he was going for more of the prototypical movement.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I think if you ignore the tail
and just assume that every ball would end up dead center without spin, along with the side angle at the bottom, you get all of the information that went into the figures. Those tails look completely worthless.
by brackenthebox on Sep 4, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I have watched Lugo on a regular basis
SInce he came to Boston
His range IS terrible, he does have trouble getting the ball out of his glove (especially on double plays), and routine throws often will go awry.
Thanks to his infrequent playing time and whatever Pie you feed these vagabonds in Flyover Country, he hasn’t shown his defensive darkside yet. However, in a playoff series against a team with a bunch of lefties (Philadelphia?) he should implode defensively.
I only watched the 1st inning yesterday—and I questioned whether a player with a modicum of reaction time would have snagged the Deputy’s line drive hit right at him that went for a base hit.
What. The. Fudge.
"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols
I sure am glad we lost yesterday.
Sweeping series leads to a huge W/L record, which is a distraction. Winning series is our goal, therefore going beyond winning the series is a distraction. Now we can forget about the Brewers for a little while and focus on winning exactly 2 of the next three games against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Phew!
Coach talk is fun.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Is it wrong for me to really want the cardinals to go 21-6?
(And think that they have a realistic shot at doing so?)
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Not at all
It’s possible but it’d be pretty hard obviously.
Here’s the thing. The more we win the higher chance we have for play-off home field advantage. But more importantly, the better we do from here on out, the better our peripheral numbers will be as a whole. That will lead to us improving our standings in Justin’s BtB power rankings! Which, I think we can all agree, is kind of the whole point of being a fan, right?
Right guys?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I want him to run rankings on previous seasons now.
Because the smell test they weren’t passing early this season has turned into a vile and overpowering spectre that torments me every time i open the BtB main page.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
it just seems to deeply flawed to me
When we are in the bottom half of teams in baseball.
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 4, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I would think 18-9 would be more of a real possibility.
21-6 is a great goal but I would say that 66% is a reallistic probability.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 4, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Probability-possibility.
/note to self: Pick one and stick with it dumbass.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 4, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I think tony says that so that the players feel better about themselves when they don't sweep
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 4, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
I was just playing around with Tony’s statements. I thought his main point was not to make “the great” the enemy of “the good”, and I think he does have a point. It’s just that the way he makes his points are easy to twist around and have fun with on the internet.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I was just thinking about the win the series thing a couple of days ago
and that was what I was thinking
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 4, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Oops
I totally misread what you said at first, and that’s why I was confused.
You could be on to something actually.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
how did you misread it
I might ask
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 4, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
It's actually kind of embarrassing
I thought you were saying that Tony believes players feel better when they do not sweep. Which just made me go “huh?” because I had no idea why you would think that. So instead of re-reading to make sure I just assumed you were making no sense. Which makes me awesome, I’m pretty sure!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I am sense
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 4, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Honestly
that’s really not a bad way to look at things. Taking 4 out of 4 games or 3 out of 3 games from any team in baseball is a really difficult thing to do. But, if you focus on “winning series”, then you take things one game at a time and attempt to play .667 or .750 baseball. Now, if we won every series all year long, we’d play at about a .680-.690 clip, which equates to about 110-120 wins. That’s pretty fucking good by any measure.
I realize that this isn’t exactly going to happen, just that this mindset is a pretty good one. You should sweep bad teams when you face their bad pitchers 3 days in the row, and some crappy teams are going to split series or win series against you when they have a couple of guys pitch well or they catch your rotation injured or having a poor start. Still, the mantra stands — win enough series and you’ll have a shot at the division every year.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
See, that's kinda how I feel
It does makes sense when you break it down. But it’s easy to hear Tony say things like that and think “wait, he doesn’t want to win all the time? That’s weird.” And that makes for fun light-hearted teasing of the manager. I wasn’t trying to make a serious critique or anything.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I agree with both of you.
I like TLR’s “win the series” philosophy. However, I hate it when that philosophy manifests itself in the form of, say, Joe Thurston in the OF or something after we have gone 2-0 in games 1 and 2 of a 3-game series.
His quote, though, was nonsensical. I wonder what the question was, probably a pretty silly one. Nonetheless, TLR could have just said that it is tough to sweep any team in Major League Baseball and that he was pleased to have won the series against a quality team like the Brewers.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Sep 4, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
If Tony was half as good at
explaining his philosophy as he is at creating his philosophy, we’d be so bored here at VEB I’d actually have to take up another hobby…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I think Motte is still a work in progress
although I will still be very nervous if he comes into any important games
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 4, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions
You're right!
It’s like the creator doesn’t know what a period is! And any time he could end something with a period…
He usually just uses the good old ellipsis and then it’s back to the exclamation point!
I find it very unintentionally hilarious to read!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
who the fuck reads those?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Sep 4, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hahaha
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Sep 4, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
seriously, imagine the kind of person you would have to be to regularly read a serialized
cartoon about a mark trail. i can’t think of one person i know who would like that.
and i know all sorts of people who would read stupid cartoons. I know Ziggy people, Garfield people, I even know Family Circus people. I don’t know a single Mark Trail person.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
the only thing that can be said for garfield is that we have shown that it can be made
even stupider — in a mixed live-action/animation film (one which constitutes the major stain on Bill Murray, in my mind).
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Exactly
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
Garfield is not on the level of Calvin and Hobbes
How could you even utter those two in the same sentence, except in something similar to my subject line?
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
I've never met anyone who reads any of the serialized comics
I would be beside myself if I did—it’d be a great moment in my newspaper-reading life.
But my favorite reader-free comic is “They Do It Every Time.” That guy’s lingo is beautiful, I once wrote a (summarily rejected) mcsweeney’s piece in that style.
Mike Mussina feels your pain.
Try getting rejected seven times!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I think I'm at four right now
not to mention five or six short stories. It is I who feels Mike Mussina’s pain.
ahahahahaha!
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
yeah, I scrolled right past all that bickering
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 4, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
you want PAIN!?
Stabs you (leaves AlxFritz fingerprints)
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 4, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I fear what you would make of my daily meals
BBQ pulled pork is going to be the highlight of my life for the next month. I eat the same meals over and over and over — most of which are generally bland.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
i am a good chef
but really only show my skills off for others. I am not a picky eater what so ever. I regularly eat dry plain oatmeal and cooked black beans.
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 4, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
you mentioned low sugar
what kind of diet are you on?
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 4, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not a diet.
I kinda hate that word — as someone who dealt with “dieting” previously — but my eating habits or lifestyle is high-protein, low-sugar and avoid food that are overly processed. Lot’s of meats and vegetables and fruits. I eat small meals 6-7 times a day (every 2-3 hours).
I really only started this about 18 months ago but it’s made a huge difference in how I feel throughout the day, energy levels and my workouts.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
So how many pitiful humans do you crush per day as compared to pre- um non-diet?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Are we talking relative to average
or the theoretical model of human-crushing robots?
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
What workout program are you on?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
It varies.
I really like running and cycling so those are my primary cardio activities though when the weather is cold I tend to rely on cycling classes, kickboxing classes and ellipticals. I lift 4 days a week (2 upper body, 2 lower body) and generally find myself working out 5-6 times a week.
Again, this is all within the last 2 years. I was about as fat and unfit a person as you can imagine prior to that.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Well
I wasn’t “stuck in the sofa please pull up a card table full of food” fat but I was definitely overweight.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
This is going to be unsolicited advice,
But I really suggest getting on a better workout program… There’s no need to have a body part split unless you’re an experienced body builder… You’re likely not doing anything that beneficial for your body.
I suggest Mark Rippetoe’s “Starting Strength.” It’s simple, effective, and I’ve had GREAT results with it. If you want to get big, it’s a great option. If you wanna get leaner, it’s a great option. The difference is in the diet. You can do cardio on your off days, as well
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/7/15/950672/training-introduction-to-weight
http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=998224
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Agreed on the lifting
I lift three times a week and basically just do full range on motion lifting that engage as many muscles as possible, and then finish up with balance and core work each time, which are more resistance exercises instead of actual lifting of weights.
On the diet front, I’m with Az. I didn’t change my lifting or workout routine (I am a famous hater of all things cardio — I just simply HATE IT), I simply went to eating a few small meals a day, mostly plants, with leaner meats and fatty dairy products like whole milk and whole cottage cheese from an organic dairy. I found that I have a lot more energy and that I got a lot leaner a lot faster even with a higher fat content in my intake as a percentage of calories.
My biggest problem is the weekend beers, and fall football tailgating doesn’t really help me with that AT ALL, as you can imagine.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
My friends hate when
I ask them if they want to go run a few miles or cycle and they think I’m crazy. Or they come and I don’t go easy on them.
I think it’s that, for me, when I first started working out, I really just wanted to do the cardio equip to lose weight and I often read when I was at the gym. I’ve now graduated to more intensive cardio (and I don’t read) but I still have a positive connotation to it. I’d really like to run a marathon eventually (years in the future) but next summer I’ll probably do a 100 mi bike ride. It’s definitely not for everyone though and there are days where I can’t drag myself out for cardio after lifting.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Hey, speaking of marathons.
Are there any in the STL area that are cheap/free? Is there some place I can get a good idea of the long runs and road races around here?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
a less sarcastic answer
http://www.bigriverrunning.com/racecalendar.php
my wife does half marathons while I bike around her. The one in St L in the spring isn’t all that great.
Shut up, Fritz™.
FIXED
Running 26 miles is always free insane!
I don't understand the purpose of the line, "I don't need to drink to have fun." Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and sticks when they've invented the lighter?
or 26 years
I don't understand the purpose of the line, "I don't need to drink to have fun." Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and sticks when they've invented the lighter?
See
I would rather mow my lawn, bike down to the farmer’s market or the gym, or bike over to a friends house than do any cardio AT the gym, anything to do with running or jogging, or any stationary bike or elliptical. I don’t mind sweating and getting my heart rate up, I just hate the physical aspects of cardio because I just end up getting tired and I don’t feel like I gain anything.
I’m buying a mid-grade road bike next spring to do bike-runs with friends who also cycle, so maybe I can get out of my rut. I have many friends who ride RAGBRAI across Iowa every year and would love to do that, just not sure by Day 3 that I’m even going to be remotely interested in it.
I love lifting weights, hate cardio. Just seems to be the way that I am.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I used to do a bunch of
full-body exercises, too. Like squat-to-press, etc. But, I injured two muscles in my ass, and irritated the SI socket or whatever that’s called. So, no more squats or lunges for me. :(
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Two hours later,
and no one has made fun of me for pulling my ass. Is this thing on?
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I'm curious what makes you say this --
There’s no need to have a body part split unless you’re an experienced body builder
It might just be semantics in what I consider an upper body focus versus what you inferred it as. Uppers (for me) consist of a lot of push-ups, cable rows, some presses, etc. I’m not a fan of machines since they take out so much of the stability aspect of lifting. Lower days are deadlifts, squats, box jumps (I hate these), etc.
I’m not isolating muscles (bicep curl = worthless) or using a leg press machine (when was the last time you sat with your back against an immovable object and tried to push something 1 foot by extending you legs. that’s right — never.) but I definitely alternate the primary muscle focus of my workouts.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
curls for the gurls
and what if a car was pinning somebody to the ground and you had 2 ft or so between it and a tree? you could put your back against the tree and push the car off of the person with your legs.
They say splitting days (push/pull or legs/upper body) unless you're really killing it in the gym,
but I’ve always felt more comfortable splitting like that. It doesn’t hurt you in any way I know of.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
should be splitting is unnecessary
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
source?
I’ve never heard this. I haven’t read anything too recently on the subject, but I’ve only ever seen groupings:
Back/Biceps
Chest/Triceps
Lower Body
"The split is better suited for a more advanced bodybuilder."
http://bodybuilding.about.com/od/weighttrainingprinciples/qt/workoutsplit1.htm
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
it mentions saving time
but I think that’s why I prefer to split. I get what they are saying about how you can rest one group of muscles while working another, but I don’t think that would work for me. I like to drink water between exercises and just punish one muscle group at a time. Low rep heavy lifts followed by 15-20 minutes of cardio when it’s all said and done and I’m in and out of the gym in 30-45 minutes. (when I’m not in a lazy bum juncture of my life)
I understand the theory and approach, though.
i think any time you can say "I really like . . . ." and have the words follow it
describe your exercise program, you’re doing something good. it’s much more important to do something you enjoy (because you’ll stick with it) than to do something that has slightly better cardio value.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Kettlebells
absolutely brilliant 30 minute daily workout.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
One of the few items I wish my gym had but doesnt
thank god they got a hex bar a few months ago
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
is the blandness personal choice or diet-related?
if the latter, you should get into spices more; pick up a good indian cookbook or something.
not hard cooking, actually.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
laziness I suppose
I do rely on some spices to keep things from being totally plain but I haven’t been experimenting much lately — hopefully the slow cooker will help with that.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
a little garlic, cumin, fresh ginger, nutmeg, cinnamon, etc. can go a long way.
some good approaches on sauces, etc., in indian cuisine. a lot of good plain yogurt sauces – high protein, low calorie stuff which might be in keeping with the diet.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I need to find a decent plain yogurt -- haven't yet.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Ever had quark?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
make your own
Especially if you eat a lot. I have made my own for awhile now. A yogurt machine is cheap. This is the one I got
Not sure why it says the price is $150. I only paid $15 for it
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 4, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't know that was possible.
Fascinating.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
you just put milk and a 1/2 cup over yogurt in it.
It pretty much just keeps it warm for like 8 hours. I like the taste of home made yogurt better. It has a more tart taste to it.
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 4, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
The best thing to do
is to find an organic dairy and order it, but it helps to have a local dairy for this because it doesn’t keep well and shipping it is really expensive. Check at a local Farmer’s Market with someone selling cheese or other dairy products — they’ll point you in the right direction.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
IMO, organic doesn't matter
as much as local, vegetarian-fed, no hormone, no anti-biotic. The best milk I’ve ever had is from a Missouri dairy called Heartland Creamery. I treat myself to their chocolate whole milk.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
I'm not in on the organic craze
I think our bodies are far more tolerant of chemicals and antibiotics and hormones than others would contend. It’s just not a bandwagon I’m on.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I'm a USA made robot though.
Buy American!!!
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Protectionism is not logical.
Who’s been tampering with the robot???
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
clearly not the Invisible Hand.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
This is what happens
When we let the [insert political party you don’t like]s take control of things!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Staying away from extremely processed food (ie cheese that can't legally be called cheese),
and getting stuff that’s fresher and higher quality is good. Organic itself is constantly being expanded legally to include new general mills crap, and genetically modified food is one of the biggest stupid things to be scared about. It’s nice to know who and where your food comes from tho.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
This is my biggest issue with "organic"
Organic itself is constantly being expanded legally
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
My issue is that genetically modified is included.
The same food, chemically, can’t be labeled organic because it’s modified.
Less pesticides and such is good, and less processing is great IMO. But the GM thing just rubs me wrong.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I'm not saying that it HAS to be organic
I don’t totally subscribe to the organic theory either. HOWEVER, if you want good tasting yogurt, I have found that organic yogurt simply tastes better, and you can be sure that if it’s coming direct from a dairy that does organic products you aren’t going to get it with a bunch of added sugar in it, which is a problem that I’ve found in the past. Even the plain yogurt at the store has about 10-20 grams of added sugar per serving. Considering the precautions I’ve taken to get the added sugar out of my diet, I’ll go the extra mile and pay a little extra to make sure I’m not getting any of it.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Also,
See this is why I love VEB
Ruthless back and forth on pitch f/x
followed by a discussion of workout plans and organic yogurts.
My day is complete.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
my wife dies for good greek yogurt.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Kefir and Skyr
are great, but the place I get mine I can buy in bulk and it’s not as expensive. I’m a big fan of Greek yogurt though.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Where do you get it?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Local farmer
that specializes in organic milk and other dairy products. He doesn’t have a website though, unfortunately or I’d link you to him.
Got to know him through a farmer’s market where he used to sell his own cheese all the time.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
There have been some studies recently that can't seem to find a health difference between organic food and "regular" food
But I totally can see how it’d just taste better. It’s like Kosher hot dogs.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Some "foods" don't have an organic equivalent.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
The Ultimate Bacon Flavored Spread
This implies there are other bacon flavored spreads. And that implies that I need to get off my ass and find them and then eat them!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
ultimate just means last.
maybe it is the alpha and the omega of bacon-flavored spreads.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Have you read anything by Michael Pollan?
I highly recommend “The Omnivore’s Dilemma”.
The thing I always seem to find with “studies” is that about 80% of them find results which come out in favor of the entities responsible for funding or completing the “study”. Any food “study” is essentially a sum of who’s funding it and what the desired results would be of that group.
Also, as Pollan points out in his books, nobody has yet to figure out why many different diets work for the people that eat them. I used to eat for nutrient value, I no longer do this, simply because of the fact that people who do this are no healthier than a french guy who eats foie gras 4 times a week and drinks red wine by the jug.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Well, the study I was thinking of
Was actually a review of 162 different studies that was commissioned by the British Food Standards Agency. The problem of bias that you talk about is a totally legitimate one, but I’m not sure it applies here.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
This is true.
The thing with “organic” is that smaller growers can’t afford to have it certified. But plenty of them grow without chemicals.
You just have to search.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Farmer's Markets = Best place to find those people
Or at least people who know those people.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Absolutely.
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
check BCB
always entertaining, those small bear fans.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i do read BCB
I normally chat over there in non game day threads
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 4, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
You know what?
I’ve been thinking about this quite a while. I know guys like me, Sooner, and Pain see the game a bit differently than most of you.
The sad part of that is that this blog has become increasingly intolerant of non Sabr-friendly viewpoints. I think I am going to pack my bags and move on.
Go Cards!!!
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
could you put that in numbers
So i better understand
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 4, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
01011001 01101111 01110101 00100000 01101011 01101110 01101111 01110111 00100000 01110111 01101000 01100001 01110100 00111111
01001001 11100010 10000000 10011001 01110110 01100101 00100000 01100010 01100101 01100101 01101110 00100000 01110100 01101000 01101001 01101110 01101011 01101001 01101110 01100111 00100000 01100001 01100010 01101111 01110101 01110100 00100000 01110100 01101000 01101001 01110011 00100000 01110001 01110101 01101001 01110100 01100101 00100000 01100001 00100000 01110111 01101000 01101001 01101100 01100101 00101110 00100000 01001001 00100000 01101011 01101110 01101111 01110111 00100000 01100111 01110101 01111001 01110011 00100000 01101100 01101001 01101011 01100101 00100000 01101101 01100101 00101100 00100000 01010011 01101111 01101111 01101110 01100101 01110010 00101100 00100000 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01010000 01100001 01101001 01101110 00100000 01110011 01100101 01100101 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01100111 01100001 01101101 01100101 00100000 01100001 00100000 01100010 01101001 01110100 00100000 01100100 01101001 01100110 01100110 01100101 01110010 01100101 01101110 01110100 01101100 01111001 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100001 01101110 00100000 01101101 01101111 01110011 01110100 00100000 01101111 01100110 00100000 01111001 01101111 01110101 00101110 00001101 00001010 00001101 00001010 01010100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01110011 01100001 01100100 00100000 01110000 01100001 01110010 01110100 00100000 01101111 01100110 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100001 01110100 00100000 01101001 01110011 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100001 01110100 00100000 01110100 01101000 01101001 01110011 00100000 01100010 01101100 01101111 01100111 00100000 01101000 01100001 01110011 00100000 01100010 01100101 01100011 01101111 01101101 01100101 00100000 01101001 01101110 01100011 01110010 01100101 01100001 01110011 01101001 01101110 01100111 01101100 01111001 00100000 01101001 01101110 01110100 01101111 01101100 01100101 01110010 01100001 01101110 01110100 00100000 01101111 01100110 00100000 01101110 01101111 01101110 00100000 01010011 01100001 01100010 01110010 00101101 01100110 01110010 01101001 01100101 01101110 01100100 01101100 01111001 00100000 01110110 01101001 01100101 01110111 01110000 01101111 01101001 01101110 01110100 01110011 00101110 00100000 01001001 00100000 01110100 01101000 01101001 01101110 01101011 00100000 01001001 00100000 01100001 01101101 00100000 01100111 01101111 01101001 01101110 01100111 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01110000 01100001 01100011 01101011 00100000 01101101 01111001 00100000 01100010 01100001 01100111 01110011 00100000 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01101101 01101111 01110110 01100101 00100000 01101111 01101110 00101110 00001101 00001010 00001101 00001010 01000111 01101111 00100000 01000011 01100001 01110010 01100100 01110011 00100001 00100001 00100001
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 4, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ø A G C A T
Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø
G Ø Ø (G) (G) (G) (G)
A Ø (A) (A) & (G) (A) & (G) (GA) (GA)
C Ø (A) (A) & (G) (AC) & (GC) (AC) & (GC) & (GA) (AC) & (GC) & (GA)
I loved Gattaca
Interesting story, plus Jude Law & Uma Thurman
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
great movie
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 4, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah?
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"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Thank you
Also:
QWxiZXJ0IFB1am9scyBpcyByaWRpY3Vsb3Vz
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Sep 4, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I didn't realize you were such a nerd!
:)
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter
Is it a bad sign
that I feel like if I tried hard enough, I could find the hidden picture in there? Like one of those Magic Eye things?
Ha ha. You dumb bastard.
It’s not a schooner, it’s a sailboat.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
YOU KNOW WHAT
THERE IS NO EASTER BUNNY! THAT THERE’S JUST A GUY IN A SUIT!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I haven't been involved in a good discussion like this on VEB is a long time
Didn’t get anything done at work today but its Friday.
We are not intolerant of non SABR views, just people who claim to be all-knowing and mis-interpret information and then dismiss it out of hand.
I think it is apparent that you, Sooner, and Pain think you know all about baseball and can’t accept what actual information or numbers would tell you.
on the other hand numbers don't tell you everything
And think some people are over confident in the numbers
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 4, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Screwball you guys.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Joel's 1 seam, obviously
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Fuck it, we're going to five seams!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Sep 4, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
This is gonna blow 8 minute abs right outta the water
by brackenthebox on Sep 4, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, yeah
Until someone comes along with 6 minute abs
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
ding ding
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 4, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
See, there are differences tho.
Sooner is a contrarian who has one argument- the argument from ignorance. Pain is a good scouting/mechanics type who is a little bit dogmatic.
Eckstreem just kind of shows up to support Sooner- i thought he was his sock puppet or something.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Yeah
The thing about Sooner is that his points are often perfectly valid, but he refuses to elaborate and often even contradicts himself in the course of a debate.
Personally, I’ve never had any problem with anything Eckstreem has said, nor would I have classified him as a Sooner sock-puppet.
Well Eck never seems to start the arguments like Sooner.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Bingo
It’s not that thepainguy is being too “ANTI-SABR!” or something. It’s that he started his point with a post that quite literally said “Pitch F/X sucks” and how “real baseball people” consider it a joke. And then he proceeded to show that he really didn’t know all that much about the system in the first place.
Anyone’s viewpoint is acceptable here, but if you’re just pulling stuff out of your ass, OF COURSE you’re not going to get a free pass, nor should you accept one.
It's not non-SABR views that I disagree with,
it is when people trash a statistic without understanding what it is that they are trashing. It’s when their reason isn’t a legitimate gripe. Also, I don’t hold stats on a pedestal. I think they compliment my firsthand watchings of games. They help me understand what is going on in context of the game and season.
That said, here are non-SABR arguments that I’m intolerant of:
1) Pitcher’s W/L record is indicative of the pitcher’s individual performance.
2) BA is more important than OBP.
3) RBI is a stat indicative of a player’s skill as an plateappearer.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Sep 4, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I certainly hope todays
who has the bigger pitch f/x boner contest isn’t the straw that broke the proverbial camels back.
Shut up, Fritz™.
i'm disappointed in the lack of ASCII art
i’m out.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Each pitchf/x boner is unique so it's kind of difficult to say
There are some basic curve/break types but lots of variety within those. Rarely do you see one that is straight with no curve. Grip and motion play into it as well.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Sep 4, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Plus it all depends on your reference point
And there’s no such thing as late break, it’s all an optical illusion.
Not afraid to nitpick
I kept telling her
it was my four seam but all she felt was the two. Wait, what?
by JBrew on Sep 4, 2009 2:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Turns out you were just throwing a crappy screwball
Gotta go for the split-her.
Not afraid to nitpick
That's it...
That’s the last penis/camel metaphor I will ever read on this blog… You guys won’t have my dumb posts to wade through anymore.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
It's well known that camels spit
HEYO
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I agree
that people on here can get overly dismissive and needlessly heated in the course of a thread, and I’m not a fan of that at all. But SoonerFan’s style of internet argument—posit something, posit something only tangentially related, posit something unrelated, leave the argument—has far more to do with the enormous, unreadable threads that follow him around than the way he thinks about baseball.
I hope you stick around.
I think chris got about 87 recs on his last two fanposts on pujols' mechanics.
and he didn’t mention wOBA once.
I can’t say that i’ve seen people getting roundly attacked for what they believe here. Moo or the Tewk come to mind as “intangibles” guys who either don’t care much for SABR stuff or who rely on other things. I think we’re generally pretty nice, even when we disagree. If we’re not, then we should be called out on it.
There’s also a difference between somebody reinforcing their own beliefs (“I think DeRosa should be resigned because he’s a great clubhouse presence”) and challenging somebody else’s (“FIP is stupid.”). If you want to discredit a SABR metric, people who like that metric are going to defend it.
Sometimes the line between defending your own beliefs thoughtfully and attacking another poster is blurry. I can’t say we’re always great at it, but we generally do better than most.
Sooner presents his own conundrum for which the SABR v. tradition conflict is just the agar in the petri dish.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I hope you decide to stick around
But you’re creating a dichotomy that simply doesn’t exist. It’s not stats vs. scouts, numbers vs. tradition, etc. etc. around here. It’s make an argument and support it. I think you’ll find that most of the times Sooner or painguy (and it’s not remotely fair to lump those two together) or hell even myself get bopped upon the head it’s because we stepped out of line on the appropriateness front, made an under or unsupported claim, or argued from a faulty logical position. It’s not an issue of someone’s perspective being inherently wrong…it’s the thought process or the behavior.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 4, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with what you're saying
but as someone who’s argued against the merits of sabermetrics before (UZR, WAR, etc.), I think there are some people here who get offended when the stats that they use to support and argument aren’t taken literally to mean exactly what they say they mean. I think it’s those people who get guys like Eck bent out of shape, because it’s simply impossible to argue with their “stats” unless you have an advanced engineering degree with a minor in mathematics. I think that some sabermetric people use that to their advantage: because you have to have special knowledge to pick apart a sabermetric argument, and breaking down a complicated stat like UZR takes a lot of time, it’s much more difficult to argue against what a particular stat says, so much so that few people would actually try to do so. Just because your stat makes the conclusion harder to disprove doesn’t mean that the conclusion itself isn’t faulty.
Again, I think we’re at the cusp of an incredible stat revolution in baseball, where we’re going to be able to pick apart players simply by how they perform. But we still need to remember that this is a game played by humans and that these stats are developed by humans and recorded by machines that are programmed by humans, so they are not without flaw.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Most exciting scout in baseball.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I only have 30 minutes to get caught up on nearly 300 comments on the daily thread
I was a little worried that I wouldn’t be able to read them all before I left. Then I noticed that there was a devolving conversation about pitch f/x and screwballs and such, so I was able to just “z” through about half of the pile and get to something worthwhile, like barf stories.
And now for something completely useless about WPA …
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
makes "z" seem like a particularly good choice of letters
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
by brackenthebox on Sep 4, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Gentlemen!
I give you… a kind of neat collection of funny infographics. Warning: it’s by some site called “Coed” which, judging by the other content there, is pretty sleazy. There are some real gems in there though. Probably my favorite so far is the How Not To Dress Like A Douchebag, which I assume would be helpful for internal VEB debates.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
dress?
it’s the internet. who needs clothes?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I regret to inform you I can no longer respond to your posts. I am uncomfortable
conversing with naked men.
I now have to avert my eyes from my screen so i aplogiz for any misspelinsg.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
especially when you are at work
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 4, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
now that there are only four people reading this thread... mwahaha.
4. Before leaving for the road trip last night, Cardinals shortstop Brendan Ryan was seen packing a duffel bag full of football jerseys. There was a Steven Jackson in there, a Donovan McNabb and a stack of others. Sources close to the duffel bag who requested anonymity because they are not authorized to speak on behalf of the duffel bag said the jerseys were for last night’s fantasy football draft.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
My question:
Are the jerseys signed?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Sep 4, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
wayback... Chris Carpenter's PD-Q
Word or phrase you use too often?
(cannot be printed on a family blog)
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
wayback some more
After discussing the merits of the [Khalil] Greene-inspired or Reyes-like flat brim, [Brendan] Ryan waxed ball-cap philosophical:
"Once you go flat," he said, "you never go back."
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Brooksbaseball pitch classification question
I have no interest in reviving the whole preceding debate, but I’m trying to understand something.
As I understand it, Pitch F/X is the core database of descriptive pitch information. Gameday pulls from that database (I assume through some XML-based API) and then runs that data through its classification algorithm to tell us what the pitches were.
Brooksbaseball also sits on top of Pitch F/X like this, pulling from what I assume is a similar, if not the same, API.
Gameday <— Pitch F/X DB —> Brooksbaseball
The question is, since Brooksbaseball also has pitch type classifications, do they have their own proprietary pitch classification system?
I assume they must since we’ve already established that Gameday does the pitch classification, not Pitch F/X, and that Pitch F/X just supplies the raw data.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Yes
PITCHf/x refers to the data itself i.e. velocity, movement in x/y axis etc. Gameday and Brooksbaseball and everyone else who does PITCHf/x stuff are pulling from the same database of PITCHf/x xml’s.
Creating an algorithm that can separate out pitch types that can work effectively for the entire roster of big league pitchers who throw different pitches with almost identical spin angles (in part due to arm slot differences) at very different velocities is extremely difficult. Jamie Moyer throwing a fastball at 83 with the identical movement to a lefties changeup is one of the many problems in classifying pitches by movement and speed with a generic algorithm.
That said, the algorithms are pretty good for what it is: a good guess. It’s good at picking out “traditional” pitches e.g. a normal slider, a normal downer curveball.
Not afraid to nitpick
But are Gameday and Brooks using the same alogorithm?
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
So the correct data flow is
Pitch F/X —> Gameday —> Brooksbaseball
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
I believe Gameday = Brooksbaseball
It’s my understanding that Brooksbaseball pulls from the same database that contains the Gameday pitch classifications. The algorithm that MLBAM uses in Gameday does a fairly good job at identifying pitches but you can do a much better job by looking at the underlying pitchf/x data.
I went back at looked at 6 of Motte’s recent games and it was easy to differentiate between Motte’s 4-seam and 2-seam fastballs. It was also pretty easy to identify the curves and sliders. The hard part is when you only have one or two examples of a pitch to go on. Out of 120 pitches, there were 5 that I had difficulty classifying. (It appears that Motte has experimented with a change, cutter and possibly a split-fingered fastball. I had him throwing 3 cutters, one change and one splitter.)
Why?
What he said actually makes sense.
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
I know
after like 4 hours in the afternoon the 20 sentence entry basically sums up what everyone was arguing over. Seems so much less dramatic.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Usually pitches that are hard to classify are ones he didn't thow quite right
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
Salt in the wound time
From a fantasy article on Yahoo!:
Chris Perez(notes) is simply untouchable right now. He worked two scoreless innings Thursday (with three Ks), upping his string of zeroes to 19.2 inningsPoopie.
argh
but I suppose it took him going to a different organization to get it right… sometimes change is a good thing for people
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 4, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he'd have done well here, too
It’s not like he was pitching terribly in St. Louis—he was just invisible.
probably
but he wasn’t going to get the chances to get the experience he needed to do well, after his shaky start and propensity for BB
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 4, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I dunno....
Walking 15 in 23 2/3 innings is pretty close to terrible. Granted, he also struck out 30, but it was pretty clear he had some control issues.
And I don’t have much confidence they would have been fixed here (indeed, since he’s had it his whole career in the Cardinals system, though worse in the majors).
Yeah, well
Mark DeRosa has hit more homers.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Wow...
I’m regretting that DeRosa deal now… It seemed ideal at the time.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
Draft MOAR first round and supplementary picks!
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
yes there's that...
he’s about .36 points away from being a type A and rising.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
To be fair
Much of this production downswing with DeRosa may be due in part to the wrist injury, which was just terrible luck for Mark and the Cardinals.
think this'll speed up AL games?
warning: pap
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Tonight's Lineup via FSN tweet
Schumaker 2B
Rasmus CF
Pujols 1B
Holliday LF
Ludiwck RF
DeRosa 3B
Molina C
Ryan SS
Wainwright P
....my quick smells like french toast...
Anybody have a sense...
as to whether Ank will be back. I’d be shocked, but I haven’t heard anything one way or the other.
Please take this comment in the spirit it was intended.
You know
I said those exact last two words right before that wild night I had in Bangkok
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
nobody makes decisions
like that this time of the year. Too many unknowns, that’s December questions.
OT....
…anyone know how to save video from the MLB website? I’d imagine it’s an FLV file, but I haven’t scoured the source code yet. I’m wanting to start some work on a highlight reel for this year
QWxiZXJ0IFB1am9scyBpcyByaWRpY3Vsb3Vz
“mlb video downloader” should give some hits. I know I looked for it a few weeks back under the same guise. Not enough time though.
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
In Albert I Trust, In Colby I Believe.
by AdjustedExpectations on Sep 4, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Found a much easier way.
Temp Internet Files for the win…
The videos show up as an mp4 file
QWxiZXJ0IFB1am9scyBpcyByaWRpY3Vsb3Vz
re: Motte
two words. One is “change”, the other is “up”. That is all.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
changeup is one word.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Because it's a puss pitch
Name one hall of fame caliber closer who has succeeded with just a change-up and a fastball.
/irony
Well, I'm from Texas and my mama taught me to not piss all over myself.
oh yeah
but the real question is how do you abbreviate it?
eh?
ehhhhhhh?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Sep 4, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This comment is completely unnecessary
unless you’re trying to start a flame war. I hope that’s not the case.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
after suffering through all the posts in this thread
I thought that was pretty funny.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Could this be the lowest scoring postseason ever?
When is the last time that we’ve had such a power house of pitching in the NL Postseason?
Lincecum, Lee, Hamels, Pedro, Wainwright, Carp, Penny?, Billingsley, Kershaw, Smoltz?
When I think post season I think we’d have a solid shot due to our pitching, even though our run production seems to come in spurts. But if we’re going up against top of class pitching, can we hold up?
I’m sure Glaus is a running joke about now, but I do hope he’ll have some “Please give me a contract next year” moments and make our bench deeper.
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
In Albert I Trust, In Colby I Believe.
by AdjustedExpectations on Sep 4, 2009 5:13 PM EDT reply actions
It's been a while
Probably have to go back to the late 90’s with the Braves and Mets staffs from around that time.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
matheny is with the team.
nice article.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
do they own a spell-checker? for 6.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Question on UZR
First of all, long time reader, first time poster. Thanks for the entertainment, thought it was time to jump in.
I have had this question on UZR, specifically as it relates to the Schuman. Skip’s UZR is especially poor when he ranges to his left. In looking up UZR on Fangraphs it says this “DG (defensive games): The number of outs made by an average fielder at his position given the exact distribution of balls in play for that player divided by the number of outs an average player at that position makes per game.” From what I gather, it takes a look at the distribution of balls per game data and extrapolates how many outs Schu should make given that distribution. However, AP, especially early in this transition, tends to shade or stray far to the second base side potentially taking outs expected outs away from Schu. Is this corrected in the UZR ratings? I would assume yes, but I can’t tell.
Also, does UZR take into account defensive positioning? I remember a game earlier in the year where Carp was perfect through 6 and a ground ball was hit to the right side and the second baseman was nowhere to be found because he was playing up the middle. There was little chance that anyone would get to that ball.
Positioning is the biggest challenge for defensive metrics
They have no way to account for that, so it’s not all that accurate in small samples. Basically it’s measuring how many balls go through the 2B “zone” vs average. Obviously it’s more complicated than just that, but that’s the idea.
Soon with the rollout of HITf/x (and supposedly they’re calling the whole deal Baseballf/x) that’ll get solved. To be honest I don’t know how much time I’d even invest in learning the intricacies of UZR, it’s going to be completely and totally obsolete starting next year.
Not afraid to nitpick
skip is not penalized for plays made by other players in his zone by UZR, iirc.
he may lose out on the chance to GAIN points by making out of zone plays because he has a great defender to his left. that effect is probably minimal, since he’s already weak on the range — even with jason giambi to his left, he’s not gonna make a lot of out of zone plays.
UZR does not (yet) take into account defensive positioning.
finally, UZR has a high noise ratio – beware of reading too much into UZR stats in even a season’s worth of data. two seasons worth is the threshold for making a real statement about a players worth.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
OT: Maybe we should follow the trend and fire our offensive coordinator?
coughhalmcraecough
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
by effin fisk on Sep 4, 2009 6:18 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
it would be interesting to see
someone else work with Ankiel.
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps.
ZOMGLOL
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
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