Our pitchers: FIP Splits

by mysterui on Sep 3, 2009 4:32 PM EDT

As we all know, Fangraphs is a great site... They continuously pump out great content, and they damn sure know who to hire (I'm looking at you, Erik...)

One beef that I do have with them, however, is the fact that they don't have FIP splits, something that should be easy given their resources. This would provide even better background on a pitcher's true abilities by quantifying how they fare in certain situations.

I decided to do it on my own. Results after the jump

First, the methodology. According to THT, FIP is calculated (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (I used 3.20). Using baseball-reference, it was doable, albeit tedious, to find splits of each of these stats. The only trick is with IP... Obviously, they don't keep these statistics for LHP and RHP, etc., so what I did (at vivaelpujols' suggestion) was take (PA-BB-H-CS+DP-SF)/3. It wasn't perfect, but the IP were, like he said, within a couple of innings of the actual result. There wasn't much change from the original, erroneous calculation, at most a tenth of a point in ERA.

Here's what I found:

Pitcher	Total	vs RHB	vs LHB	Home	Away
Adam Wainwright	3.43	3.06	3.90	3.07	3.93
Chris Carpenter	2.87	2.82	2.94	2.79	2.94
Joel Pineiro	3.19	3.13	3.25	3.04	3.33
John Smoltz*	4.06	2.55	5.64	2.45	5.22
Todd Wellemeyer	5.36	3.63	7.14	4.80	6.02
Kyle Lohse	4.55	3.90	5.28	3.97	5.43
Jason Motte	5.52	5.07	6.32	4.87	6.40
Ryan Franklin	3.28	3.37	3.16	2.78	3.87
Kyle McClellan	4.28	4.88	3.58	3.89	4.65
Dennys Reyes	4.01	5.65	3.15	3.59	4.40
Trever Miller	3.37	7.36	1.76	3.15	3.66

*both Boston and St. Louis stats

One thing you'll notice is that the FIPs I got are different from fangraphs'. I suspect that it's because their league-specific factor isn't actually 3.20, but it's close enough.

So what does this mean? What does this tell us that other measures can't? Well, most of it we can get by watching the games. Trever Miller is awesome against LHB. Todd Wellemeyer is not. Ryan Franklin, who sucks, likes to pitch at home. Take from this what you will... it takes awhile to get all the information from BR, but apart from that, it wasn't hard to do.

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Comments

This must be wrong

no way ryan franklin has a 3.28 FIP
/end sarcasm
Really nice work

No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson

by stlwcards on Sep 3, 2009 6:47 PM EDT reply actions

Does my method for counting IP for the splits make sense to you guys?

My feeble mind can’t come up with a better way

Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'

by mysterui on Sep 3, 2009 7:21 PM EDT reply actions

Not really

Innings pitched is just total outs/3. So, for the lefty right splits, you would do (PA-BB-H-CS+DP-SF)/3. It won’t be perfect because it doesn’t include pickoffs or triple plays, but it should be within 1 or 2 innings pitched.

Smoltz.

by vivaelpujols on Sep 3, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks

That’s what I was thinking… As I thought more and more about it, it didn’t make any sense to assume that the pitcher would get lefties and righties out at the same rate

Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'

by mysterui on Sep 3, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Changes made

Thanks, VEP

Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'

by mysterui on Sep 4, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

can;t believe

welly is that good v righties

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Sep 4, 2009 1:23 AM EDT reply actions

Welly & Smoltz as RHRP?

with Miller & Pork Chop for LHRP

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by gocards62 on Sep 4, 2009 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions

ooooh.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Sep 4, 2009 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions

ROOGY

Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Excellent info here

One thing:

This Chris Carpenter is good, REALLY, consistently good.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Sep 4, 2009 10:29 AM EDT reply actions

Pineiro ain't too shabby either

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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions

KMac is a LOOGY?

I seem to recall he’s been surprisingly good against lefties in the majors… has he pitched a small amount of times to lefties making him susceptible to a small sample sized illusion?

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Sep 4, 2009 12:20 PM EDT reply actions

Yeesh

Like we need another one of those. We should be seeing more Hawksworth in the 7th and 8th.

"But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in." - Albert Pujols 8/20/09, base-clogger.

by lightbulb on Sep 4, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, with relievers, these are all pretty small sample sizes

But according to my calculation, 31 IP against RHB vs. 26.33 against LHB

Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'

by mysterui on Sep 4, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

and 248 PA vs LHB, vs 326 for RHB (43.2%)

for the team, they’ve faced LHB as RHP in 52.6% of PA’s, so he’s actually been a bit protected.

it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie

by SleepyCA on Sep 5, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions

ugh, 47.35% (2276/4806)

I picked the wrong line out of the B-R table as the numerator. Still, he’s been a bit protected.

link

it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie

by SleepyCA on Sep 5, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm really worried about K-Mac

he can’t pitch an inning w/o at least one walk. His approach is to nibble rather than to aggressively go after hitters. I don’t distinguish between K-Mac and Welly now. They both have the rest of the month to sort themselves out and earn a post-season roster spot.

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by gocards62 on Sep 5, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions