Mo’s Report Card

trade timelines seem a little off, or am I missing something?

on Mo because I think it is still too early to tell. I would love to know the club’s intentions regarding Holliday and just exactly who pushed for the deal – was it MO, DeWitt, TLR, some combination or all of the above. I think the acquisition only makes sense if ownership is both willing to do what it takes to sign Holliday and to increase the team payroll substantially. If we have to put Nick Stavinoha in the OF because we sign Holliday then what is the point. Until he is signed we paid way too much for a rental.

Besides what happens in the playoffs. But what happens next year? If Holiday isn’t back, the Cardinals are back to .500 (or so). The offense with Holiday sort of stinks, without him next year, ugh.

Still, I think Mo made some calculated risks and they paid off. Carpenter being able to pitch, for one. Almost no one expected it. He could have gone out and tried to get another starter. But he stayed pat. And it worked.

Same with Pineiro actually becoming good (who’d have thought? I had to change my sig because of that).

i mean, he traded the walrus and gave away barton and perdomo

and the derosa trade aint lookin’ too hot now

He trimmed out a year of Rolen’s deal and got back a good player, albeit one who didn’t play this year. In hindsight the Piniero deal looks like a pretty good deal, and it was the one we were complaining about all of last year. The Lohse deal is a pretty bad one, and is his worst move as GM so far, imo.

I do NOT understand why everyone is so upset about Wallace. Holliday is going to be worth around 2.5 – 3 WAR in his two months here, Wallace wouldn’t have been worth anything for this stretch run. If the org doesn’t think that Allen Craig can play 3B at the major league level, then Wallace had no chance of ever manning that position as a Cardinal. This is why he was drafted — to bring back a stud player in trade. It seems obvious to me that’s the case. He’ll be at 1B or DH for the A’s pretty quickly, imo. Mo has put this team in a position to make a World Series run in a year where our pitching has stayed healthy and we’ve gotten a few breaks with Franklin, Miller, and Boog all performing way above expectations. How you cannot give him an A here I don’t understand. You can’t give him a lot of grief about long term when he’s been here around 18 months as GM and inherited a payroll mess.

Now, the Cardinal future certainly depends on this offseason, and a good chunk of that will fall on Mo.

1. Sign or don’t sign Holliday (Preferably sign, and at below market; not at the expense of Pujols)
2. Buy out Ludwick and Rasmus’ remaining arb years at good rates for the club.
3. Negotiate with Piniero or Smoltz to get him to return at a below market rate. (to me, it’s one or the other, and I’d rather have Smoltz for one year than Piniero for 4)
4. Keep enough payroll in reserve to be able to make a move or two if need be.
5. Focus on arbitration to maximize the number of draft picks we get in return for players leaving which will help rebuild a farm system that we’ve gutted this year.
6. Attempt to bring back Glaus for a cheap 1 year deal.
7. Let DeRosa and Ankiel walk.
8. Start working on Pujols extension.

A lot of this is going to depend on payroll as well. Is DeWitt and Co. going to be content with payroll above $100M if the team is making the playoffs every season for the next 4-5 years? To me that’s the big question.

not giving him an A until if or when the world series it completely depends on how the trades produce in the playoffs and signability

The Lohse move was terrible, and the Holliday move, to me, displayed knee-jerkiness, mis-valuation of prospects and an inability to acquire undervalued talent. However, I always advocated for Smoltz, and Mo came through, and Lugo has been very good as well.

I was somewhere between “C” and “D”. As with most GMs, there’s some good moves and some bad moves, but IMO there’s a worrying inability to recognise the value of freely available talent, a worrying undervaluing of the organisation’s minor league talent (though I’ll give them a pass on the Tyler Herron release, given the apparent “personal problems” involved), and a couple of really outright poor moves (Holliday trade, Lohse 4-year deal) that looked poor when they happened and still look poor now.

Also, I feel he doesn’t seem to understand a few things that seem quite straightforward – not that it matters hugely or will end up being a move that cripples us, but there really wasn’t any need to add another year to Franklin’s contract this year, it’s all risk with very little reward. This, plus the talent wasting (Reyes, Perdomo, Barton, Boyer were all here at some point and basically let go), they’re not terrible moves or ones that will badly hurt a club, but to me they show a fundamental sloppiness in his ability to identify talent and areas of need for the MLB club, as well as simple economics and ability to plan for the future.

Balancing the books, of course, are the great Lugo trade, getting Smoltz (hopefully we can get him next year too) and the Lohse contract last year.

We can all give him a free pass on the Holliday trade because he’s torn the cover off the ball for a month, and I (for one) am a big Holliday fan and hope he’s back next year, but that was a really, really bad trade from a value standpoint. I don’t think it’s possible to claim that we won that trade – maybe it’s what we needed to do to go over the top this year (and I agree it was a well-timed acquisition; NOT doing something similar last year was smart, too), but we got absolutely fleeced on that one, value-wise. Also, with the way the Cubs and the rest of the division have collapsed, we didn’t actually need Holliday to make the playoffs, most likely; even without him we’d be a long ways ahead in this division. I was on the fence before that move, but I’m going to say Mozeliak is, at best, an average MLB GM.

Jury’s still out, IMO.

And I pretty much agree with Felonious above. He’s made some good moves, and the team has been playing well; but he doesn’t seem to understand the concept of F.A.T., or basing deals off of a one year sample (Lohse).

Again, we’ve done great this year, but I don’t think he’s maximized our resources.

I will say this though; the Smoltz and Lugo deals displayed some growth in my mind. Both of those players were acquired for nothing, and even at the time of the signing, it was pretty clear that they could be league average or better. If he’s able to pick up some (good), cheap bullpen help next year, and resigns Pineiro and Holliday to nice deals, then I’ll be happy. If he brings up Allen Craig and manages to trade Lohse, I’ll jizz in my pants.

but I really give him somewhere in the B- to C+ range rather than a straight C.

Mozeliak has done a pretty remarkable job remaking the roster this season, taking what was a marginal playoff team and turning it into a legitimate title contender. The downside, of course, is the amount of value he traded away to do so.

Pluses:

Bringing in Matt Holliday. The Cards acquired the best left fielder in the game in the prime of his career.

The Julio Lugo/ John Smoltz/ ex-Red Sox train to glory. Both were free and represented considerable upside. Awesome job on both, Mo.

Identifying third base as a position of considerable weakness and, rather than ignore it, acting decisively to shore up the position.

Getting Chris Duncan out of the organisation when it was clear his presence had become a serious problem.

Minuses:

Overpaying for Matt Holliday.

Failing to deal Rick Ankiel when he had some value.

Trading for Khalil Greene, though many (including myself), thought it was a solid deal at the time. Tough to really blast Mo for this one, as Khalil’s problems have been a surprise, to say the least, but one would hope this is the sort of thing which could have been spotted earlier.

Failing to recognise a potential upgrade to 3B in the system, rather than dealing for Mark DeRosa.

Gutting the right-handed relief depth the Cardinals had built.

As has been said by both Felonious and Viva above, the chief issues I have with the job Mozeliak is doing so far hinges largely upon his inability to properly value freely available talent just sitting around in the Cards’ system, rather than going outside the organisation to fill in holes. However, I also feel there are some extenuating circumstances here.

The thing is, Mozeliak isn’t operating in a vacuum. I know we like to do our valuation calculations, and god knows I’ve thrown around more than my own fair share of figures showing the Cards got hosed in both the DeRosa and Holliday deals from a pure value standpoint. However, the problem is this: if Mozeliak was given the directive by ownership to go for it with this year’s team, he’s not really in a position to give them value calculations showing Brett Wallace is going to be very valuable over the next six years. He is in the position of trying to turn this year’s team into a real winner, which leads him to make the moves he did.

Also, like it or not, Mozeliak is dealing with a manager who has as much or more pull with ownership than any other manager in baseball. He can’t simply hand Tony a roster and tell him to play the guys he gets, because Tony has the ear of the owner. If La Russa pulls a power play, Mo could very well find himself in an untenable position. It’s a difficult balancing act, and really one of the chief reasons I myself feel so conflicted about La Russa returning for future seasons. By the same token, if the manager seems uninterested in giving a guy from the minors any sort of chance (ie Craig, though I am only speculating here), there’s little point in Mozeliak trying to force said player onto the roster. We saw how well it worked with Reyes last year; I can’t imagine anyone in the org wants to go through that again.

I do absolutely take big time points away from Mo for the Perdomo fiasco, as well as failing to recognise Perez as the better future bet over Motte. But I also think Mozeliak is still in a tough position, trying to serve two masters. If the on-field management faction demands veteran talent and ownership is prepared to back them up, Mozeliak himself has little choice but to do the best he can to acquire such talent. Likewise, if ownership has decided they want to go all in this season and try to get to that next level, the valuation of various players changes to reflect that imperative.

Overall, I think the DeRosa deal was very bad, and we’re going to be paying for it for quite some time. Both Perez and Todd have the potential to be true impact arms out of the bullpen, something the Cardinals are now badly in need of. I don’t care how bad Allen Craig is at third, his bat and bad defense plus Chris Perez is much more valuable than Mark DeRosa’s bat and bad defense plus nothing.

The Holliday deal I was bothered by, and still am, due to the sheer amount of talent given up by the Cards in the deal, but the value of the first-round pick lost by the A’s in the deal must be included if we wish to make sense of exactly what the cost really was. Regardless, in this case, I think the fact is Mozeliak was told to go out and get the biggest upgrade to the team he could for this year specifically, and Holliday fit the bill. Personally, I wish the Cards had made a strong push for Willingham instead, but here again we may have the managerial stamp. If the manager says it’s Holliday or bust, how do you hand him Josh Willingham? Unfortunately, in this case, the name value matters to someone in the organisation, I believe. Of course, I could also be wrong here, but it feels right to me. Regardless, if the imperative is to improve the club this year, then the valuation of those minor leaguers becomes very different than if you’re looking to improve over the next several years.

In the end, you have to admit Mozeliak has built an impressive team heading into the postseason. The future cost is likely too high, but whether or not ownership is willing to pony up financially has a lot to do with just how much too high. If DeWitt and co. are willing to increase payroll in order to keep Holliday, the equation makes much more sense, particularly if they’re able to get him signed before he hits the open market. If he leaves, the trade becomes a whole boatload of talent for three months of Matt Holliday and two early draft picks. If he signs with the Cards after testing the market, the deal becomes three minor leaguers for three months of Matt Holliday. Even if you wish to zero out Brett Wallace for the value of the draft pick Oakland isn’t getting, it becomes two minor leaguers for three months of Matt Holliday. I’m not sure if that’s a good deal or not.

criticizing the Lohse deal especially those that then hail the Pineiro deal in the same breath. Lohse projected as a 2 WAR player going forward. That’s what the Cardinals signed him at. Also, let’s remember that this is year 1 of a four year deal. The injury issues stem back to, IIRC, him being hit by a pitch and then the club trying to rush him back (surprise!).

As a rule, I’m against long term contracts to league average players but the deal isn’t THAT bad.

Only way he gets a lower score is if you rate him against perfection, or you somehow forgot that Pujols wants to win now, not wait for a 3 WAR/year player to develop three years from now when the Cardinals probably don’t have the best pitching staff in the NL.

Lohse deal was bone-headed, but it was made up for by the Smoltz/Lugo pick-ups.

The Holliday trade re-energized the franchise and the city, and now if the Cardinals don’t go all the way, Mo won’t be laid with the blame and Pujols won’t go to Boston in 2011.

Still too early to tell until we see the results of the Holliday situation. If we win or go to WS then I don’t care if Wallace becomes a top 20 player. If we don’t, then we have to re-sign him for a less than break-the bank deal. Glad we got him and I think one or both of those is very possible.

Derosa deal looks like a steal for the Indians, but that doesn’t make it bad for us. He’s the kinda guy who will win you a W.S. so I put this one in the “playing for keeps” category.

Lohse I view as a 5/46 deal and when looked at that way, it seems like a good deal. He was hurt this year and all the complaining about the no trade seems unreasonable to me. You don’t sign a a number three starter to trade him so I don’t think we gave up much there.

Lugo looks like a big win. Greene was a bust and I don’t get not signing Springer. Glaus/Rolen looks like a wash.

My big complaint is Mo’s lack of getting a couple deals done last year to eek us into the playoffs. I think the F.O. gave up last year on a team that could have rallied in September with a couple key infusions. I think with Albert Pujols on your team, you have to try to find a way into the playoffs every year. So in my book he gets plenty of demerits for that.

So, I have him heading upward at this point.

is an automatic loss of half a grade. My “B” becomes a “B-”.