I don't doubt he'd win the Carlos Beltran Award
by DanUpBaby on Sep 29, 2009 6:00 AM EDT
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PrintRE: the Cardinals taking home a Cy Young this year, this is a great gambit—"Carpenter: Wainwright Deserves Cy Young." Tomorrow's article, "Wainwright: Carpenter Deserves Cy Young", is going to be the one that tips their hand, but hopefully they can keep Bud Selig in the dark until he threatens to cut the award in half.
Meanwhile, on the internet: "Advanced Metrics: Lincecum Probably Deserves Cy Young." If computers and basements had existed in Solomon's time the bloggers would have excoriated him for failing to check the birth records and FiveThirtyEight would have posted an exhaustive demographics breakdown. Here, I guess, there's probably a fairer case to be made.
Wainwright hasn't gotten BABIP lucky—both hover around .300—and some of the yawning gap between his ERA (2.58) and his FIP (3.16) might be explained by his groundball prowess and (relative to Lincecum) a high rate of double play conversion. It hasn't all been his defense; by UZR the team D is right down the middle, so it might not even mostly be his defense. It's a little unnerving—there's a certain thing, in pitchers' seasonal lines, that is easier to see than it is for hitters, where a Texas leaguer over Dan Uggla's head is worth as much as a line drive in front of Colby Rasmus. It's value, maybe, and in the course of a game it's buckling down and throwing your best curveball, and in the season it's having everything come together. But over the course of a career we know it's mostly flattened out.
Prospective run-batters in have hit .216/.288/.269 against Adam Wainwright this year. He's walked twice as many of them and struck out 30% against 20% with the bases empty. He managed to shut things down with runners on in 2008, too, but not 2007, and there's no particular reason to think he'll be as good in 2010. But it happened. I'd give this one to Lincecum, if for no reason other than it'd be a shame if this comes down to whether or not Wainwright goes five innings, allows three runs, and wins his 20th game on the last day of the season. He's the better pitcher, and in reality he's probably no worse at pitching with runners in scoring position than Wainwright is.
But game by game Wainwright has done nothing but impress me in 2009, and yeah—in those situations with runners on I've grown increasingly, absurdly confident in his ability to throw five curveballs past the other team's best hitters. Remember the arguments about keeping him in the bullpen? The terrible start he got off to when the team made the right choice? It was hard to see him struggle in the right role so soon after he had the iconic moment of his career as a closer, but he, and the Cardinals, kept at it admirably—he became a de facto ace and then a real one, and this year he's been a revelation.
I wish they could cut the award in half.
#
While we're rehearsing for next year's tropes, we're seeing a lot of Julio Lugo at shortstop as Brendan Ryan and Tony La Russa nurse dings and an intense desire for lineup variety, respectively. A while back I mentioned that I hadn't yet noticed Lugo's awfulness on defense; soon after that, as though I'd dared the GOBs, I couldn't stop noticing it. It seems like once a game now I see him react to a ball late, dive awkwardly, or move, as though wearing Brendan Ryan-sized ankle weights, in the direction where the ball used to be.
Early, probably not-that-predictive returns at Fangraphs are not comforting, inasmuch as he seems to be exactly as terrible as he was in Boston. 2010, another year removed from knee surgery, might be a different story, but Lugo's ugly play at shortstop to this point might put Tyler Greene ahead of the field in the Tony La Russa Vaguely Relevent Second Utility Infielder sweepstakes. (The Brian Barden Derby?)
Backup shortstops who can hit seem to lose their shortstop cred all at once —one day teams just stop playing Rich Aurilia-types at short, unless they're out of their mind, but it happens more suddenly than you'd think given the usual gap between a player's defensive peak and the baseball world's recognition that he possesses any defensive talent at all. I wonder if 2010 might be the last year he's Shortstop Julio Lugo.
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not bad
ive never been a huge fan of sabrmetrics, mostly because i will never truely understand them, but either way you look at theres a case that can be made for timmy, waino, and carp.
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
S'metrics vs The Alternative
I may not understand all the formulas but if I hear one more announcer say that the reason a team wins is “heart, momentum, leadership or desire” I will hit myself with luggage.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Sep 29, 2009 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Not Everything...
….is quantifiable in this universe, ie there is life beyond Sabrmetrics. The approach I’ve advocated is to use all the tools in the toolbox. Besides, I come from an era where we liked baseball card stats because we had, well, baseball cards! Before they got over-produced and full of suckage. true, it was not an in-depth indicator of a player’s true talent, but giant piles of bubble-gum smelling baseball cards (and playing Flip!) got me through my childhood (which cud have been veally bad)…
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
I am too.
I would think veal would be a touchy subject for a cow.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Oops. I should have said "neither can I"
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
That's What I Meant...
…by bad childhood – VEAL bad childhood, which thankfully I avoided.
:=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Does FIP overvalue things?
Baseball is a game played in front of a defense yet all we seem to do is seperate pitching from defense. I know it is possible for a groundball pitcher to have a good FIP (see Pineiro, Joel 5th in the NL with a 3.02 FIP) but that is mainly due to his amazing 1.11 BB/9 and 0.31 HR/9 rates and a lot less to do with his amazingly low 4.43 K/9 which is the lowest of the first page of FIP leaders on Fangraphs (35 pitchers and only 1 other has a K rate in the 4’s). Lincecum on the other hand has both a nice K rate in the 10’s and a relatively low BB rate (higher than any of the Cards’ big 3 though) and thus has the lowest FIP. He also has the lowest BAA and his FB and LD rates are comparable to Carp and Wainwright so while he is giving up more balls in the Air it isn’t by enough to draw a real conclusion other than Carp is the best pitcher of the bunch when healthy and if Carp had not missed any time I doubt we would even be having this discussion (his LD rate is in the 19s while theirs are in the 16s and 18s respectively and his FB rate is in the 33s compared to 28s and 30s). I just think in the end some people are putting all this empahsis on FIP when every other stat also has Lincecum leading Wainwright but not always Carp.
For reference FIP=(HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)3-K2)/IP
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
I think it might, but it depends on what you value...
To be honest, I value a starting pitcher that doesn’t give up a lot of home runs and doesn’t walk a lot of people, but I don’t really care how they get outs necessarily (FWIW, relief pitchers are different — I want relievers with high strikeout rates). FIP works for me, even if I don’t value strikeouts as much as the next guy.
I think Lincecum is a great pitcher and I am looking forward to seeing him pitch for a long time to come, but it seems like Wainwright and Carp get similar results without having to strike out 10 guys per 9 innings. I also think that they are more methodical in their approach and get into fewer 3 ball counts, and they give up fewer big homers than Lincecum does, simply because of their approach. They are incredible pitchers, and not because they can rear back and throw it 97-98.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Well, Carp can, now...
somehow…
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
I think I might be "the next guy"
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I'm not pointing fingers...
I don’t think PIniero is as valuable as Lincecum, but I don’t think that you have to strike out 10+/9 innings to be a valuable starter. I’d rather have a guy who strikes out 6 per 9 and has a K/BB of 3:1 with a HR rate of <1 per 9 than a guy who strikes out 10/9 and has a K/BB of 2:1 and has a HR rate of >1. Call me crazy, I just think that the 1st pitcher is going to be more valuable than the second one in the long run.
I simply don’t subscribe to the theory that a pitcher who strikes out a lot of hitters is more dominant than a pitcher who gets a ton of ground ball outs and never walks anyone. I don’t buy that Clemens was more dominant than Maddux, in fact, I think the reverse is true. I don’t buy that Lincecum is any more dominant than Carp is when they’re both pitching well.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Tim doesn't just strike people out (which is in value terms the best possible outcome of an AB),
he also limits his walks (and has a better K/BB than Carp or Waino), he also generates a large percentage of ground balls, and he gives up very few home runs.
Maddux was more intelligent than Clemens, and his control and pitch sequencing made him one of the greatest pitchers in history without necessitating a high-octane repertoire. That said, he gave up more runs because sometimes ground balls find holes, and sometimes a few hits come in a row.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
True
Let me put it this way then — I think Lincecum would be a much more valuable pitcher in the 1970-1988 era than in the current era, where more guys have high strikeout totals and better power numbers and the SB isn’t in vogue like it was then. The current era has more teams looking for 2 walks and a three run homer, versus putting together a walk, a SB, a bunt, and a base hit to score runs.
Summarizing — I think it’s simply important to limit HR and XBH in today’s era, because few teams really string together 4 or 5 singles to get into a big inning.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
That seems reasonable.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I'll still take Maddux
Koufax, Gibson, or Maddux is a much tougher question for me…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Ryan's Career FIP....
is 2.97 VS Maddux 3.26. There is a lot to say for Ryan’s stats, but what kills him (and not Maddux) is walks. They really are the ultimate Control VS Heat argument
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Seems to me...
that the ridiculous strikeout numbers would favor Ryan using FIP as the measuring stick. What are their tRA’s career?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
That's Total Runs....
…right? Ryan is 2178 in 5386 innings pitched, and Maddux is 1981 in 5008 IP.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Right...
to me, it’s all about preventing runs, so he who has the fewest runs allowed per inning would be the best pitcher….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
.5 runs per inning
is really splitting hairs.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 29, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
crap
That’s supposed to be .05.
/ reply.fail
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 29, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
No
Fewest runs is pitching AND defense. You have to seperate the two.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
tRA wasn't availabe back then
No batted ball data.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Maddux pitched longer into his decline phase
for about the last 5 or 6 seasons of his career, he was no longer the dominant pitcher he was in his prime, merely a pretty good one. Ryan retired earlier & closer to the top of his game; I think you’d have to cowpare FIPs from their best 8 seasons or something, moo.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 5:54 AM EDT up reply actions
ryan threw 1271 innings after the age of 40 ;)
and had a K/9 of 10.2 in that period (age 40 to 46).
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
hmmm yeah
looking at the numbers I see I was completely wrong. For some reason I had it in my head that Ryan’s purple patch came earlier in his career and he wasn’t active that far into his 40s.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 1, 2009 5:19 AM EDT up reply actions
K/BB vs BB/PA or BB/9
K/BB may be a great predictor of future performance, but I think BB/PA or BB/9 are better indications of what a pitcher actualy did. More to the point, Carpenter and Wainwright walk fewer batters than Lincecum.
K/BB BB/PA BB/9
Lincecum 3.85 .075 2.7
Carpenter 3.73 .050 1.8
Wainwright 2.63 .068 2.5
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
And they strike out less, which means they will allow more hits
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, 100%
Strikeouts are an out 99% of the time, while balls in play are an out 70% of the time.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
The point is,
Wain-o and Carp walk fewer batters than Lincecum. K/BB may be a better gague of future walk rates, but as they performed, stats show Carp and Wainwright better at avoiding the free pass.
As far as Ks go, I agree to an extent. Ball in play are outs 70% of the time, but that is just an average. Some pitchers are better at avoiding hits (or XBH) on balls in play than others
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
A strikeout is worth approximately 2/3's of a walk, if that makes sense
You’re right that is just the average; however, most pitchers hover around the average in terms of value on balls in play. And it is nearly impossible to tell the ones who are different based off of sample data.
The point is that FIP is a good formula that takes a lot into account. Lincecum, by FIP, has pitched much better than Waino and a little better than Carp.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Is a K always "in value terms the best possible outcome of an AB"?
If I have 2 men on or 3 men on with one out, I sure as hell want a double play instead of a strikeout.
Yeah, but what if that groundball gets through the hole
Then you have two runs instead of zero.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions
A double play isn't technically an outcome of an AB.
The outcome is a ground ball. Considering a pitcher has around a 5% chance of getting a double play while some pitchers K as many as 30%, yeah.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
FIP doesn't "overvalue" anything
By definition, it’s based off of linear weights, which is the average value of each outcome. High K pitchers have lower FIP’s because K’s are very, very good – they result in an out 100% of the time. GB’s or FB’s on the other hand, will only be caught 75% of the time.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
[contributes half a sig to this post]
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
[halski has a few more shots in his flickr stream]
Brendan Ryan and Jose Oquendo discuss Dan’s post
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 29, 2009 8:41 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Not always indicative
It’s not surprising that A.D.A.M. would have a better actual ERA than his FIP for exactly the reasons you gave. And while some of it can be attributed to some breaks going his way, it can also be determined by the gameplan a pitcher or even a team follows when the bases are empty vs. having men on.
A perfect example of this was Tom Browning: he challenged hitters when nobody was on base, and regularly gave up a high number of homers. But those were all solo shots, because once somebody got on, he gave them nothing good to hit. FIP would have a field day with him, but he was quite succesful, perhaps in part to his pitching philosophy.
One of the fastest played MLB games I ever listened to on the radio (and scored at home), was a tilt with the Reds, Browning on one side, Tewks on the other. Probably exaggerating, but I think a full nine innings were played in about 90 minutes. Lots of first and second pitches put in play, counts hardly got deep enough to even have a chance at a walk or strikeout. Never mind that both guys would get the ball back from the catcher and immediately want to throw the next pitch.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
by Solanus on Sep 29, 2009 9:20 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Wainwright may be one of the few pitches who can consistently beat his FIP
However, we probably don’t have enough info to tell right now. His career ERA is .40 points lower than his FIP due to a strand rate well above average, so that lends credence to the theory that he’s smart about managing his situations. Again though, not enough info to tell.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Wainwright may be one of the few pitches who can consistently beat his FIP
However, we probably don’t have enough info to tell right now. His career ERA is .40 points lower than his FIP due to a strand rate well above average, so that lends credence to the theory that he’s smart about managing his situations. Again though, not enough info to tell.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Yer gonna hate this statement, but...
…I think Waino should get the Cy Young because he is right there in all the Sabr-stats with the best pitchers AND he won 19 games. It would be different if he won 19 but was getting hammered and was benefiting solely from a great offense. Waino winning the Cy should make both the Sabr-folks happy and the traditional stats folks happy.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
basically what you are saying is
if Marquis had continued his lucky run and won 3 or 4 more games and got to 19 wins he still shouldn’t be anywhere near getting cy-young votes.
Milt Thompson FTW!
What hes saying is its the best of both worlds
the saber folks are satisfied as Waino is performing very well in “saber stats” such as FIP, WAR, WPA, etc. And the traditionalists are happy because of the high wins and low ERA.
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
Except "wins" are such a bad way of looking at things
They’re like 70% irrelevant and shouldn’t really be considered at all. Wainwright has a win on his record when he gave up 6 ER ind 5 innings.
Not afraid to nitpick
Never advocated wins as a good way to look at things
neither is ERA, but there is no denying that the BBWAA looks at those things
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
Im with you
and it bothers me when broadcasters bring up a pitchers W-L, especially when the offense is amazing, see Wang 06-07
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
Yeah, Wang's W/L was Yankee-aided
To his credit though, his FIP numbers had always been in line with his ERA until this year. FIP said he got slightly lucky with ERA in 06 and unlucky in 08. Plus, for about three years he basically didn’t give up homers. That does not mean he “deserved” all those “wins” or whatever.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
In fact, if B-Ref is correct
He seems to have led the league in HR/9 two years in a row with a third year that was similarly awesome. So he was a very good pitcher for a while. I wish we could scoop him up for cheap and fix him…
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Actually he might be a good buy-low.
What ever happened to him after his knee injury?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Was wondering the same thing...
I checked his fangraphs page and this was the most recent rotowire news blurb: “News: Dr. James Andrews, who performed the surgery on Wang’s shoulder, told the Yankees that it could take a year before Wang will be able to pitch again in the majors, The Journal News reports.” Season-ending shoulder surgery is kinda scary. I didn’t realize he wouldn’t even be able to pitch before the middle of next season. Ah well…
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Hm, was it a labrum tear? Ouch.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
torn labrum = leave well alone, I'd say
still, I’d be happy taking a Matt Clement-esque gamble (say a 1-yr, $1m or less contract); healthy Wang was pretty effective and would be a Dave Duncan/Marty Mason wet dream (if either are here in 2010).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 6:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Wang apparently doesn't have a career-threatening shoulder injury,
so he might be a decent buy-low candidate.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
see i think
era is still relevant because it still shows the average runs allowed per outing, to me theres still some traditional stats that are important, and if wins are irrelevant then every 300 game winner in the HOF or going there shouldnt be in there on that merit alone. It is still relevant in the fact that its used as a pretty stat. it looks good to see a 20 game winner instead of a 12 game winner. you still have to rely on the team to win games
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Yes but ERA
can depend entirely on if the scorekeeper, scores a play an error or not
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
That's Like, What...
…less than .01% of the total plays during the course of the year? i don’t see the scorekeeper as being much of a statistical variable, IMO.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Wins are only relevant in the sense that other people are dumb and use them
But the goal should be to move away from a dumb stat like that.
ERA is somewhat relevant yeah because it measured what actually did happen and not what was supposed to happen, but ERA can oh so greatly be affected by defense and as stlw says, the official scorer.
Not afraid to nitpick
Yeah Wins are dumb
By all saber stats Tampa Bay is one of the best teams in baseball. We will see them in the playoffs….
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 29, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I Do Not Think...
…that wins are ‘dumb’, but judging a pitcher’s performance solely on W/L is certainly not a very good way to judge a pitcher’s performance. But I think it is wrong to totally throw out wins as a variable. After all, MLB does not award division crowns based on a team’s FIP or BBWAA. I think of wins as a secondary stat.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
And I Do Not Think...
…anyone here is judging a pitcher’s performance solely on W/L because it’s dumb, but having it play into all the other facets of the game is a good way to do it. As a pitcher, if you are better than the other team on that given day, it’s a good thing.
Luckily, they don't play in the NL central.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Another strawman argument
Let’s differentiate between a pitcher’s win total and a team’s win total. They are two separate things and each has it’s own positives and flaws. Intermixing them only obfuscates the issue.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Sep 29, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
But you are also saying
That a pitchers win total has no value. It is all luck based
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 29, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Factors outside a pitcher's control that determine his W/L total:
1. His league.
2. His division.
3. His defense.
4. His offense.
5. The opposing offense.
6. The opposing pitcher.
7. His manager.
Factors within his control:
1. His K rate
2. His walk rate
3. His HR/9
4. His batted ball profile
Factors in FIP
1. K rate
2. Walk rate
3. HR/9
Factors affecting team W/L
1. Offensive talent
2. Defensive talent
3. Pitching ability
4. Division/League
5. Run distribution
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Sep 29, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
It's not that absolute
Pitcher wins are more luck based than other stats. There’s a choice between stats that better isolate a pitcher’s skill and actual contributions versus one that incorporates more noise (luck, teammates’ defensive contributions, etc).
Why would we use the latter?
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
It seems like this argument is more about semantics?
On one side we have somebody saying “Wins aren’t totally worthless, and you guys said that they were.”
On the other we have somebody saing “I was employing hyperbole, yeah, but there’s no reason to use them if you have something that is better in every way.”
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
This is like a choice between a rock
and a hammer. The rock can accomplish most of what I need it to but it’s not very good at the specific tasks at hand. I could also choose a hammer, which isn’t perfect, that is far more adept for what I’m trying to do.
In the presence of the hammer, the rock IS worthless. If all I had was a rock, I would probably use it.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I agree with your logic.
I just was wondering if there was a disconnect on one or both sides of the argument as to what is actually being argued?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Not a Strawman Argument...
a pitcher’s win total cownts towards the team’s win total. One might even say that a team’s win total is made up of all its pitchers’ win totals (sarcasm)…
:=8/
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
A Strawman argument..
…is when an opponent takes the original argument of his/her adversary & then offers a close imitation, or straw man, version of the original argument. I am not doing that at all.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Nice wiki,
but he’s referring to the saber-love for TB, equating the playoff miss with a saber-fail, and then using that as a support for the value of W/L records.
The reason it’s a strawman is because no one is arguing that wins and losses don’t actually occur- teams win and lose, but pitchers can be awarded wins for pitching terrible or losses for great performances. He is taking issue with the methodology that awards a win to a pitcher two goes 5 IP and gives up 6 ER.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Don't Udderstand..
…your 1st paragraph, I don’t know what TB is (aside from a disease). But in the second I am not arguing “that wins and losses don’t actually occur” either, so why even bring that up?
And there is no point to bemoaning the rules of the game: you can give up 6 ER and still win the game. You don’t always have to have a perfect performance, as long as you keep your team in it for 5 innings. Good luck getting Bud Selig to change that rule.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Ahhh...
….so he’s referring to someone else’s post then? I wish there was a better way to differentiate who is replying to who, is becomes a cowfuddled mess on my screen after a while, and I am cowfuddled enough as it is…
:=8/
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
press "up"
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
what the hell does that have to do with anything?
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Tampa Bay
who are like the 3rd or 4th best team in baseball, failed to qualify for the post-season in a division which includes the 1st and 2nd best teams in baseball, plus one other above-average team which would probably be a playoff contender in any other division.
No, I’m not sure either.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 6:29 AM EDT up reply actions
To me if you are consistent enough to get 300 wins
you are probably not relying on solely luck or on run support. It’s not like Wang was winning 20 games for 15 seasons.
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 29, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
That's why 300 game winners are all in the HOF (or will be)
On the other hand, most 20 game winners are not. Over a smaller sample, luck is more involved in determining record, however that does not mean that luck cannot drastically affect career W/L i.e. Bert Blyleven has only 287 wins and he was one of the greatest pitchers in history, while Jack Morris has 258 and he was a middling pitcher with a 3.90 career ERA.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
So Bert Blyleven should be out of the hall of fame because he always played on sucky teams?
his ERA+, FIP, IP – were all great, yet he finished with less than 300 wins and a barley over .500 record because he played on shitty teams.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
That's exactly what I was saying
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 29, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
and he has SIX losses
in which he went 7+ IP and gave up less than 2 ER, including one 8 IP 1ER loss, and another 2 games where he went 6 IP and 5.1 IP and gave up 2 ER. HE could easily have “won” 25 games this year.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
What surprises me..
is the overwhelming support for Lincecum on this board. I see it as a pretty close race, where Carp is the best of the three, but doesn’t have the K’s/W’s/IP’s of the other two. Lincecum has the flashy numbers, but is not THAT much better than Waino. I might think that Lincecum deserves the award over Waino, but not enough for me to vote for him over A.D.A.M.
IOW…what happened to personal biases in this place?
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 29, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Ankiel deserves the Cy Young.
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
by vexedtechie on Sep 29, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
If Carp had not tore his oblique,
then I believe he’d be the frontrunner. But, he did, and that missed chunk of the season rules him out, in my opinion. We had a discussion previously about Wainwright vs. Lincecum and I lean toward Lincecum because most of their stats are relatively even while Lincecum has the higher strikeout numbers.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
K
any pitcher that missed a start, does not qualify for the cy young, if CC can spend less then half the season and still get CY votes then Carp is the clear winner here
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
and
i realize Carp missed some time, but that tells you the W/L stat is not meaningless because he still put up 16 wins, which means he at least kept his team in the game long enough for the offense to put up enough runs for the win
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
in which
the CY award if flawed because the pitcher needs his offense and defense to win, lose, and get outs that will affect the sabr and traditional stats
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
the pitcher
merely puts the ball in play to which the defense can make a play or not
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Unless you get 250 Ks
a year, in which you would be not putting the ball in play. Your statement about “merely puts the ball in play” equates Lincecum, Carp, Wainwright with your average beer league softball player. The Cy award is for the most dominant pitcher of the year and in this year it is a very close race in which arguments can be made for all three contenders.
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
I'll admit, with a pitcher, the stats are much more closely tied to the performance of teammates,
but the highest wins for Cy argument is basically the same as the RBI=MVP argument.
There are stats like tRA that award pitchers for their batted ball profiles, and I think this is a good time to bring out the old “if Timmy was on the Cards, how many wins would he have?” saw.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I know this isn't where the convo was heading
but it just made me think (and drool)…if Timmy WAS on the Cards…good lord. That’s gotta be up there with the best rotations ever, doesn’t it? I mean, that’s Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz/Avery territory (adding Joel in there).
Yes.
Lincecum/Carp/Waino/Pineiro would be, off the top of my head, better than any 4 man rotation that has ever existed. There have been top twos as good as Lincecum/Carp or Carp/Waino, but no one has ever had that much talent.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
This is flawed logic.
Basically, you are saying that because a bunch of ignorant sportswriters voted for CC Sabathia for NL Cy Young (despite CC not pitching in the NL for half of the season) as well as the PED’d up Manny Ramirez for NL MVP (despite the fact that Manny spent a majority of the season in the AL), therefore, Carp deserves the Cy Young since he only missed a month due to injury. In a nutshall: Since the BBWAA award Cy Young votes for less-than-full seasons, it is the way everyone should approach the award.
What I am saying, in contrast, is that if I were a (hopefully somewhat) less ignorant sportswriter, casting my ballot for Cy Young, I would vote for Lincecum and Wainwright over Carp because they pitched more games and have therefore been good over a larger portion of the season. Thus, I would give Carp my third-place vote, behind Lincecum and Wainwright.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
MY POINT
is you cant discount the fact that Carp missed like a little over half a month or so and not give it to him, if the so call sabr stats were that great, then it would show Carps true value compared to timmy, which if i remember right they are very close. the bbwaa votes based off of team wins as well, and playoffs, in my opinion, thus my logic states Grienke will get shafted as well as lincecum. but in the case of timmy waino, and carp also made good cases to win it, there is no lose situation, all three were dominant, all three made it close enough to have this debat on who was more dominant, and what i cant get is was the sabrmetricians think they are infalable with there math skill and it ultimately proves everyone wrong. it really doesnt its just added evidence and argument to the discussion because there is two ways of thinking and always will.
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
I haven't even used SABR stats in my pro-Lincecum argument
My argument for Lincecum’s being more deserving to win the Cy Young has never been based on new age stats. If you look at the baseall card stats, Lincecum has been a bit better. He leads in strikeouts. His strikeout-to-walk rate is better. He has more shutouts. His ERA is lower. I would vote for him for these reasons.
As for Lincecum’s direct comparison to Carp, Carp’s counting stats are hurt by his missed time. He has started fewer games, thrown fewer innings, and struck out fewer batters. Furthermore, Lincecum’s ERA is lower than Carp’s.
Sabrmetrics does have a stat that takes into account injury time: WAR. Carp’s WAR: 5.5. Lincecum’s WAR: 8.0. Wagonmaker’s WAR: 5.5.
No matter how you slice it—SABR stats or ol’ fashioned stats—on this, the twenty-ninth day of September, twenty-aught-nine, Little Timmy Lincecum is more deserving of the 2009 NL Cy Young than either Adam Wainwright or Chris Carpenter. (No matter how much it pains me as a Cardinals fan to type this.)
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
ERA
Carpenter: 2.30
Lincecum: 2.47
Lincecum probably deserves it, but I’m selfish. I want to see Wainwright win 20 and get the Cy Young, Pujols get the MVP, and Carpenter get the Comeback Player of the Year…Hell, as much as Jim Tracy probably deserves manager of the year, I want TLR to win that. I want some more STL Regalia…
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
Carp
has 4 less starts then timmy, and timmy also has no bullpen to speak of…considering Carps injury history i really dont want him pitching all 9 if he doesnt have to…waino still has more IP to counter your argument, and timmys ERA is not lower then Carps right now. the thing that im trying to say is Waino really has been just as dominant then timmy, just because Waino doesnt have the K’s to back it up or the complete games doesnt mean crap to me.
plain and simple you save your best arms for the postseason, and besides a late season run the Giants were out of it from the get go. The dodgers had a strangle hold on the west, and the Rox are about to give up the wild card to and amazingly hot atlanta team.
CG to me means you were more efficient in a way, but not really because you threw less pitches and depended on your defense to get the outs from the BIP
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
The Giants Bullpen
is better than ours. It’s not a good argument to say that Lincecum’s pitched more innings because Carpenter has frequently been reliever by our superior bullpen – Brian Wilson alone has been worth more than our entire bullpen, and I’d argue Jeremy Affeldt is probably as good as any reliever on our team. Sergio Romo and Bob Howry have been pretty good too, better than any of our relievers barring Franklin and Miller (and certainly better, along with Affeldt, than any of our set-up guys).
The Giants bullpen (~5.5 WAR) is better than The Cardinals bullpen (<1.5 WAR) and it’s not even especially close.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 6:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I want Waino or Carp to win
But Lincecum’s been about 2 WAR better than both – that’s a huge disparity.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Why use wins at all?
They are at least a large part dependent on your teammates, meaning they should have no place in an award for pitcher performance, especially when you have better ways to judge pitchers.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Wainwright would probably counter than Albert Pujols deserves the Cy Young award.
Pitchers have won the MVP award before, it’s only fair. I can imagine the quote: “It’s hard for me to imagine a pitcher being as good as Albert. Sorry Cy Young, you were great and everything. But Pujols is ridiculous.”
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Sep 29, 2009 10:02 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
YES
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 29, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Wagonmaker vs. Blooper Friday Night
For Wagonmaker’s 20th, and perhaps Cy Young clinching, win. I’ll be tuning in.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I may have to go to that.
Speaking of, I’ve got two bleacher seats for Sundays game if anyone wants to buy them.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Yup, 1:15
and you get vouchers for free tickets to a game next year.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Damn sorry
We have a night college football game, so there is no way I can make it to St. Louis by 1:15. Thanks though
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 29, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought the vouchers...
were handed out at Monday’s game.?
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 29, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
There is no game Monday...
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Man...
I’m an idiot.
For some reason I had the 4th pegged as Monday in my mind…even though I thought it was odd to end the season on a Monday and all that was not enough to make me verify it.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 29, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
TLR has to play the regulars right?
He may not admit it, but he badly wants WW to get #20
Albert Pujols is ridiculous.
I would be shocked if he didn't.
We will see the “a-team” Friday night.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Ooohhhhh!!! Freese!
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
by vexedtechie on Sep 29, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
OT: i am a hopeless case of photoshop gone wrong
posted a ‘how to tag a fanshot’ fanshot. because I generally fail at explaining it with wurds.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Sabremetrics gone too far
I think that if Lincecum wins the Cy in a landslide, it will be a sign that sabremetrics has won a debate that it shouldn’t have won. Back in its infancy, one of the big aims behind sabremetrics was to find out how repeatable / predictable success was. One of the bigger predictors of repeatable success for pitchers was K rate.
Predictor of success, though doesn’t equal success, IMHO, and I think that if Lincecum wins the Cy solely because he has a higher K-rate, then that is very wrong and a perversion of the Award.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Sep 29, 2009 10:15 AM EDT reply actions
No way he wins in a landslide
I have heard from too many different sources that they are voting for Carp or Waino. This includes the WWL. It will be close and honestly I am not sure who is going to win. But I don’t think it will be a landslide
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 29, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
A perversion?
In what way is Wainwright better than Lincecum? Not ERA (despite the super human runners-on effort), not HR/rate (despite the pitch-to-contact montra), not K/rate, not pitches per inning, not a whole lot of things. Waino has a .18 BB/9 advantage which is approximately one fewer walk per 10 starts, and he has more wins which is a direct result of the Giants being the anti-’27 Yankees offense.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Sep 29, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
thank you
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
just to clarify
Waino’s walk rate being 1 fewer walk per ten starts is slightly incorrect…(not that it changes the entire point of the argument). Lincecum has played 2 less games, and 9 less innings, and has two more walks. It is still strikingly close over 30+ starts and 200+ innings pitched.
Isn't one of the reasons
these stats are more predictive because they do a better job at measuring a player’s skill?
"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols
not to mention Lincecum has the better ERA right?
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Predictor of success, though doesn’t equal success, IMHO, and I think that if Lincecum wins the Cy solely because he has a higher K-rate, then that is very wrong and a perversion of the Award.
You continue to argue against strawmen. Lincecum has a much better K-rate than Wainwright, BUT he also has a near-identical walk-rate; so the difference in K/BB (which is basically the single biggest measure of a pitcher’s success without getting into the more complex metrics) is pretty big. He’s also given up fewer HRs per 9 innings, and has a much better WHIP (if that’s a stat you like, personally I don’t care for it).
Lincecum has had a better season than Wainwright in EVERY single useful measure of success; Waino’s just pitched a few more innings and induced a few more GBs (and even then, it’s not much 47% to 51%). No-one thinks tiny Tim should win it just because he’s got more K’s – we think he should win it because he’s got more K’s, walked fewer batters, and given up fewer HR, which are the three most controllable skills in a pitcher’s armoury.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 29, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Lincecum has walked slightly more batters per inning. . .
Really, though, the only marked differences in the two pitchers’ performances are:
1) Lincecum has struck out 2 more batters per start than Wainwright.
2) Wainwright has made two extra starts.
I value 2 more than 1. Many others value 1 over 2.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Sep 29, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Lincecum's given up fewer dingers, too.
and 2 more K’s per 9 innings is a LOT. That’s 2 free outs.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 6:39 AM EDT up reply actions
There is some weird double posting going on...
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
In the FOC vein, I'm imagining him as Jemaine
or, more accurately, Brett and Dave making impersonating Jemaine
by brackenthebox on Sep 29, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
in the butt?
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
by vexedtechie on Sep 29, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It took a while to sink in after I scrolled past it
but well played sir.
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 29, 2009 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I know that you disagree
but posts like this aren’t really productive.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I think its already clinched
cy-young voters aren’t saber-stats guys….if he wins #20 it will be a run away win.
Milt Thompson FTW!
i dunno
I bet a lot of them also like Carp’s come back story
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 29, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Totally OT: Nats baseball starts a trend!
Yesterday I went to my local drugstore where a hand-lettered sign in the window informed me that among the October holidays I needed to celebrate (i.e., buy a card for) was Oct. 16 – NATINAL Bosses Day. I laughed!
Heh.
I went to a drugstore recently and was surprised to find they were huge Nationals fans. I mean, just look at their logo:
Look familiar?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
You have to be in drugged bliss to be a Nats fan?
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 29, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Hahaha, nice
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
by vexedtechie on Sep 29, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
My wife happened to walk by the other night while I was watching a Nats game on MLB.tv
and she commented, “Hey, their logo is the Walgreen’s logo!” I hadn’t noticed until then, but had to agree with her.
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Sep 29, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I just realized it the other day
I never really cared for the “W” anyway, so this just seals the deal. I think that team’s whole look is very “blah”.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Did everyone suddenly become Ken Rosenthal sockpuppets?
I love Waino, and I want Waino to win, but every quantifiable measure of pitching ability has him third to Carp and Lincecum.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
The only sabermetric counter argument to be made
is actually in Carpenter’s favor. I am not a WPA fan, so you won’t see me making the case for that stat but it’s there.
I just don’t understand how we can continue to have this debate. Does anyone doubt that if Lincecum played for the Cardinals and Wainwright for the Giants, the advantage in win totals would be reversed? I don’t. If you believe they’d be reversed then how can you contend that it’s something Wainwright is doing rather than a function of the team? I hope some day we’re past discussions like this. . .
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Sep 29, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Even if Adam or Carp win, it's not the most egregious of decisions.
They all deserve it, it’s not like Rollins as MVP dumb.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Is Franklin Gutierrez still a frontrunner for MVP according to WPA?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
No
He never was unless you want to toss clutchness into the conversation as well. The argument for Gutierrez was an exceptionally weak one from Mariners’ bloggers doing mental gymnastics.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I thought WPA included clutch...
honestly I know jack crap about WPA.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
hmmmm
I don’t remember the specific context of the Gutierrez argument at the time (at least not as well as I thought I did) but I recall thinking it was silly. Could be that was just becasue I’m so biased against WPA.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
There was an article on BtB around 3 months into the season,
and I think it had Berkman over Pujols and Gutierrez blowing everyone away in the AL.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
It mixed in an (over?)-weighted value based on defense
Gutierrez has some amazing UXR numbers this year. Combined with his clutch hitting and he looks like a god compared to his overall stats.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
Berkman was last year
Pujols is leading the NL in WPA.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I think
I must not remember the specific context of the Gutierrez article at the time but I remember being disposed against it, perhaps that was simply it’s reliance on WPA.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
And as for the Gutierrez for AL MVP argument,
here’s where I first heard it.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Actually
I’m not sure this is true…
Our offense really hasn’t been much better than the Giants offense for most of the season — just mostly the last two months. We’ve lost plenty of games in which our offense has scored fewer than 3 runs, so I’m not sure you can say that their win totals would be reversed just because they switch teams.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Bernie arbitrary cutoff point stat from his blog,
Going into Sunday’s game at Colorado, the Cardinals had scored 3 runs or fewer in 21 of their previous 46 games…
That would be roughly September and all of August, with the murderers’ row of Pujols/Holliday that is worth roughly $500MM over 20 years worth of contracts.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Our offense hasn't been "much" better? We haven't been great, and it's a subjective term,
but our wRC is more than 100 runs higher than the Giants. They are dead last in the league in runs created and runs above average. Our offense has been average- almost dead on average, while theirs has been the worst in the league by more than 20 runs.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Fine
then compare the run support for Adam and the run support for Tim and see what you come up with. Saying their offense is so much worse than ours and that swapping teams would lead to more wins for Lincecum is a subjective analysis in itself. There’s no way you could prove that is true, because they are completely separate events. It’s not like the Cardinals have been a fucking murderers row this year. I would tend to agree if he had said to swap AJ Burnett and Lincecum, because the Yankees are leading the world in runs created, but you still can’t prove it, you can only speculate.
As far as I’m concerned, go by quality starts instead of wins. it’s not the greatest stat, but it’s more under a pitchers control than wins is.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Steve Phillips
See, I think it all depends on the energy a pitcher brings to his dugout. A pitcher can motivate his batters to score more runs for him just by the way he carries himself. It happens all the time, or so I hear.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Does Steve Phillips
Motivate his skin to tan into it’s bronze color? Or does he use a “tanning solution”….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
While I can't technically "prove" it's true that Lincecum would have more wins as a Cardinal,
that’s really just part of the flawed nature of the win statistic. The fact is, Lincecum would be much more likely to have more wins if he were backed by an average offense instead of the worst offense in the league.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Maybe
but what if Wainwright had pitched in Carp’s turn in the rotation? He’d have more wins. What if Lincecum comes over and pitches in PIniero’s turn in the rotation? He probably has maybe one or two more wins.
I agree that wins is a flawed stat and it shouldn’t be used to determine how talented a particular pitcher is. But saying that he simply would have more wins by playing for a better offensive team isn’t necessarily true either. There are plenty of good pitchers on bad teams that for some reason don’t win a lot of games because the teams doesn’t score runs when they pitch for some reason.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
How about we make it more rigorous and say,
Lincecum would probably have more wins if he were a Cardinal.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
That's a hypothesis I'd like to have the opportunity to test.
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Musial
C'mon, make it happen MO!
Ankiel for Lincecum, straight up.
…
OK fine, we’ll throw in Thurston. They’re both very “versatile” and between the two of them they can play like, 6 positions. That’s like trading 6 guys for one guy, only without giving up 4 of those guys, it really is.
I know we’d get robbed in this trade, but it might be worth it.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I am now wondering about Adam's run support
some talking head was saying something about it being low, and then I didn’t check it…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Yes
and that’s true whether you pitch on a good team or a bad team. So lets just leave it at that.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
WPA is okay
I think that timing should be included when valuing a pitcher, but you also have to seperate pitching and defense. Maybe FIP/24?
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Lincecum should win,
but Wainwright will win if he wins Friday night (and probably even if he doesn’t).
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
This is true.
I’m responding more to the sentiment that, “There are more things on heaven and earth, Bill Jamesio, than are quantifiable by your spreadsheets.”
It just doesn’t work as an argument because it posits nothing and puts forth no evidence.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I love Waino, and I want Waino to win, but every quantifiable measure of pitching ability has him third to Carp and Lincecum.
I think you can certainly argue that Wainwright’s been better than Carp simply because he’s amassed more innings (he has a tiny lead in WAR as well, but it’s basically a wash there).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 29, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Every quantifiable measure?
Let’s see:
IP: Wainwright 227 – Lincecum 218 – Carpenter 187.2
GS: Wainwright 33 – Lincecum 31 – Carpenter 27
ERA: Carpenter 2.30 – Lincecum 2.47 – Wainwright 2.57
R(ER): Carpenter 49(48) – Lincecum 67(60) – Wainwright 72(65)
K: Lincecum 254 – Wainwright 204 – Carpenter 153
The ERAs are very close, and so are the R/ER breakdown, with Lincecum having the slightest of edges that could easily be negated in these guys last starts. I think the difference in two starts between them is important. At similar levels of outstanding results (and notice I’m not relying on the wins stats here at all), making additional starts is a big deal. It’s why I think Carpenter finishes third among these guys, frankly, even though for the starts he has made, he’s been slightly more effective than both of them.
I just cringe at the idea of Ks being used as the deciding factor. It would be like awarding the MVP to someone who hit 350/365/500 over someone who hit 300/365/500 because the first guy’s performance was more aesthetically pleasing to sabremetricians and more repeatable.
Going to the extreme, you could argue that Garrett Jones doesn’t deserve the NL ROY despite a 305/380/596 line because it’s not repeatable given that he is a flash in the pan (his minor league line in 11 seasons is 258/312/450).
by SouthsideCardsFan on Sep 29, 2009 10:45 AM EDT reply actions
It's not really fair to deny
someone a postseason award just because you assume the guy won’t be good next year. That’s kinda really unfair based on the qualifications for the award. It’s not the guy you think will have the best career award. It’s the rookie of they year award. I’m assuming you’re not trying to argue this though, so I’m just saying it to those that would perhaps argue that.
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 29, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
It’s just an extreme version of the argument (or at least a part of the argument) that those who would give Lincecum the award simply because he has Ks more batters, even though Wainwright has been every bit as effective in keeping runs off the board while making two more starts.
It’s a close call, but using Ks to say that Lincecum should win the award is wronheaded IMHO.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Sep 29, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
This is a strawman, since no one is advocating giving the award to someone simply based on K rate.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Its not just K rate
its FIP, ERA, K/BB, HR/9, WHIP, and WAr
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
*WAR
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
goog god yall
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Sep 29, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 8 recs
This better be serious by the time i get back.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
And this litany of stats is somewhat of a strawman. . .
because its the difference in K rate that makes the difference in FIP and K/BB.
ERA is essentially a wash (or at least could be depending upon their respective last starts).
Many sabremetricians will tell you that WHIP is a flawed stat (although I like it better than most).
I am not wild about WAR, although YMMV.
Look, it’s a nailbiter of a call, but my opinion is that K-rate based stats are not particularly appropriate for use in determining who wins the Cy, and that the 2 extra GS from Waino are enough to overcome the small Lincecum leads in the other stats.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Sep 29, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Okay,
what stats do you use for your Cy Young considerations?
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
My Cy Young Analysis
I start with ERA as a baseline, because a pitcher’s job is to keep runs off the board.
I then look behind that to see whether a pitcher’s ERA is hiding something, like pitching in front of a really good defense, or giving up a lot of unearned runs, or leaving a bunch of runners for his bullpen, who is constantly bailing him out.. (Admittedly, the hole in this analysis is if there is a pitcher out there with an ERA of a full run worse who has really been victimized by his defense, I might miss him on my first pass, but I think that is a rare occasion.)
I would also look at innings pitched and games started. Both are important, in similar, but slightly different ways.
I might look at something like strikeouts as a tiebreaker, but only if the difference is really striking, like the difference between Lincecum (254) and Piniero (100). The difference between Lincecum and Wainwright is 2 batters per game. If Wainwright is getting those two guys out by anything other than pine-tar penalties on HR swings, I’m not going to use that thin reed to deny him a vote unless it’s the only difference.
So to extend the analysis to the instant situation, I think Lincecum’s and Carpeneter’s and Wainwright’s performance is so similar in preventing runs that I have to move to the next point of analysis: GS & IP. When the run prevention rate stats are so close, the difference in GS eliminates Carpenter. And IMHO, starting two extra games at the level of performance that a Wainwright or Lincecum gives you is more valuable than Lincecum’s striking out two extra batters in each game he pitches.
YMMV, but Lincecum’s extra Ks shouldn’t make him a shoo-in, IMHO.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Sep 29, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
ERA is not a pitching statistic, it's a team run prevention stat
What if both Wainwright and Lincecum both face 50 batters, strike out 20, walk 5, allow 5 home runs and 20 balls in play. However, Waino has a defense of 9 Ozzie Smiths and Lincecum has 9 Adam Dunns. Accordingly, Waino gives up only 5 hits, while Lincecum gives up 15.
Did Waino actually pitch better or did his defense play better? I think that answer is obvious.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Kinda Overstacked Argument There...
…but point taken. then again, hits don’t necessarily lead to runs. What if Lincecum and his Dunn team strand 9 or those 10 runs, but Waino and his Ozzies strand only 2 of his 5? What if The Dunn team has moore errors and moore baserunners, but gives up less unearned runs?
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
I'm not sure
Personally, I think that should be considered towards a pitchers value (read my post at the end of this thread); however, I know that other people feel that it is just luck.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Look, it’s a nailbiter of a call, but my opinion is that K-rate based stats are not particularly appropriate for use in determining who wins the Cy,
So, the single best thing that a pitcher can do in any given plate appearance is totally irrelevant to evaluating how good a pitcher is? That’s what you’re arguing?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 29, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not on either side of this debate...
But I would rather retire a guy in one pitch before striking him out. A strikeout is ideal in certain situations, but I would disagree that it is always the best outcome.
V, b.
Definitely.
Sure there’s a chance a ground ball goes through a hole, but there’s a greater chance you retire a guy in one pitch and can send your pitcher deeper into the game.
by Mulliganstew on Sep 29, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Strikeouts send a pitcher plenty deep enough
let’s say you have a mythical pitcher who Ks every single batter he faces, but has a struggle to do it, say, taking 5 pitchers on average. With a pitch count of 105, he pitches 7 scoreless innings every single game.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 29, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, with a no hitter. Pitching to contact is much more realistically going to get you deeper in the game.
by Mulliganstew on Sep 29, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Pitching to contact gives up a bunch of baserunners
I don’t especially see that it gets you deeper into games, because you’ll face more batters.
If you list the league’s starting pitchers by innings/start, do you think the guys at the top of the list will have strikeout rates which are above or below league average?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 6:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, the "ground ball outs get you deeper into games" thing is logical as a principle
But real life is more complicated than that. If you have a hypothetical situation where pitcher A can guarantee an ground ball out with each pitch and pitcher B can guarantee a swinging strike with each pitch, than A is superior to B since he takes fewer pitches to get through the game, making him more durable, etc. And I realize I’m constructing my own strawman here (which begs the question—wait, never mind) but I don’t buy either way that one is automatically better than the other. It depends on lots and lots of real-world variables.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
...
Guys who give up more grounders and strike out less batters, give up more hits. That means they have to face more batters which leads to more pitches.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Except
Just because you strike out more batters doesn’t mean you necessarily give up less hits.
by Mulliganstew on Sep 29, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes it does
A strikeout results in an out 100% of the time. A ball in play results in an out only 70% of the time. Hence, more strikeouts = less balls in play = less hits.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
not 100%
passed balls happen
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
You don't guarantee that you retire a guy on one pitch, though
that’s out of the pitcher’s hands. All you can do is, let’s say, “induce a groundball”. Groundballs turn into hits something like one third of the time (actually it might even be a bit more). Given the option of getting an out on one pitch 70% of the time, or getting an out on (say) 5-6 pitches 100% of the time, which is better?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 29, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
What is Pineiro's pitches thrown per plat appearance vs., say, Lincecum?
What is Wainwright’s?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Lincecum actually doesn't throw a particularly large number of pitches-
I forget the actual number, but his P/PA is very close to Waino’s.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
That's what I thought.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Lincecum: 3.784 P/PA
Waino: 3.729 P/PA
Jo-El: 3.417
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I'm hesitant to even address the ROY portion of your argument
since it’s not relevant but it’s also not really an extension of the Lincecum logic. The measures of Lincecum’s performance that people are looking at are all things that measure what he’s done THIS YEAR. None of them are arguments or indicators about what would happen next year.
The ROY example isn’t just an extreme version of the argument. It’s an ENTIRELY different argument.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Actually, incredibly conveniently, BtB JUST had a good article about this.
The argument was Ichiro vs. Swisher because the two have almost identical wOBAs but one works the count hard and draws lots of walks, while the other is singlehandedly reviving the baltimore chop. The conclusion (sort of) is that identical wOBAs (or in the ROY example, OPSes) are not equal if the player’s hits are highly BABIP dependant and he isn’t seeing very many pitches.
In the ROY example, the guy with more hits would have a higher wOBA anyway, because a single is actually worth more than a walk in RISP situations.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Also, Ichiro does see a lot of pitches and his hitting results are sustainable.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
As far as I can see, there is no
conclusion in that article. Just a lot of speculation.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Yeah, that's why I said sort of.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
That article was 100% conjecture
There has never been any proof that working the pitcher for more pitches actually has a positive effect. It could easily have a negative one.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know, do you think that it NEEDS proving?
take it to the extreme – let’s say I have one hitter who swings at the first pitch every time, and averages .300. Let’s say I have another hitter, who is the least patient, best-contact hitter of all time, he swings at every pitch, averages .300 too (neither hitter ever walks or hits for extra bases) but takes (on average) 30 pitches per plate appearance. Which is better? Surely the second guy, as he will get the opposition’s starting pitcher up to 100-odd pitches by about the 3rd or 4th inning of a baseball game.
As long as the rule that “middle relievers suck” remains true, I can’t see any reason why, EVERYTHING else being equal, making the starting pitcher throw more pitches can be anything but a positive?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 6:53 AM EDT up reply actions
but relief pitchers are typically more effective, on average
typical bullpen ERA is around 1/3 to 1/2 a run better than starting pitcher ERA, (0.29 for the NL this year, 0.32 last year) so there may not be an immediate tactical advantage in getting the SP out of the game.
Unless, of course, you consider the change in efficiency that comes from burning your opponent’s bullpen arms out in the first game of a series. but that would be a case of an almost-certainly real phenomena that would be almost impossible to measure.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Exactly
There is a lot of ways you could look at it and you would get a different verdict each time. Somebody really needs to run the numbers to see if it actually is a net positive or negative. I suspect the effect is very small.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 30, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I think you're probably right.
As to bullpen pitchers, however – again, I have no numbers to back this up, but a huge part of the reason average FIP/ERA is about a half-run lower for bullpen guys is that closers and (to a lesser extent) set-up guys are, in general, excellent pitchers. The guys that handle the 6th and 7th innings and mop-up duty, less so. I suspect, in general, if you knock a pitcher out of the game early, you’ll be facing a team’s 4th or 5th bullpen arm who will, generally, be pretty close to replacement level.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 1, 2009 5:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, I said. . .
that “it’s an extreme version of the argument (or at least a part of the argument)” so your criticism is mostly fair, and expected.
The thing is, I think that many are missing the point about strikeouts. They are just another way to get an out. Why sabremetricians have historically liked them is (mostly) their predictive quality. Above someone said that they are a truer measure of skill, and that is true, but is the Cy Young supposed to be a measure of skill? If it were, then Mariano Rivera would have won several of them. Or Charlie Hough (depending upon your definition of skill). Or Steve Dalkowski.
No, the Cy Young is supposed to be a measure of performance or value or something similar. And as a pitcher, your job is to keep runs of the board. Carpenter and Lincecum and Wainwright have done that with almost identical rates of success (subject of course to their last starts). The big outlier is Carpenter, because he has a handful less starts than the other two. In my mind, given how close their rate stats are, that DQs him from contention for the #1 vote.
Results-wise (and I think the Cy should be about results), how the pitchers kept runs off the board is relatively irrelevant. (I think you could make a case for dinging some pitcher getting his brains beat in but for playing in a huge ballpark in front of a team filled with Gold Glovers, but nothing like that exists here.) Generally speaking, results-wise, strikeouts are not more valuable outs than groundouts or flyouts or popouts or line drive outs. In some senses they can be less valuable, because they require more pitches of the pitcher. In some cases they can be less valuable than a ground out because a higher number of ground outs result in double plays than do strikeouts. In some cases they can be more valuable because runners are able to advance on Ks far less frequently than they do on groundballs or flyballs.
Strikeouts may be more aesthetically pleasing than a ground out or a fly out. They may be more valuable (or not, depending upon the circumstances). They are almost always more predictive of future success. But when the true outcome-based stats (i.e. not those for which differing K-rates matter) are so close as they are between Wainwright and Lincecum and Carpenter, it is as unfair to penalize Wainwright because he got less strikeouts than it is to penalize Lincecum because he got less groundballs (or double plays (8 vs. Wainwright’s 18)).
by SouthsideCardsFan on Sep 29, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
strikeouts are not more valuable outs than groundouts or flyouts or popouts or line drive outs.
This is the distinction that I think is missed. The pitcher is not responsible for a strikeOUT or a groundOUT, he’s responsible for a strikeOUT or a groundBALL. The defense has to be credited for turning that groundball into a groundout. Do they get all the credit? No. But it’s why strikeouts are generally valued more when your trying to isolate how “how the pitchers kept runs off the board” rather than how the team kept runs off the board.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I see that argument
but I have two issues with it:
1) Generally speaking, a pitcher will pitch to his defense / park, and so small differences of 2 K / GS (i.e. the difference between Wainwright and Lincecum) are irrelevant to me. You could argue that Lincecum is taking advantage of his extreme pitchers park to rack up more Ks. He challenges hitters more up in the zone because he has more margin for error.
2) Except for obvious outliers that indicate that a pitcher’s performance is hidden despite a sterling runs allowed stat (which is the most important stat), it doesn’t really matter to me how a performance is achieved so much as that it is achieved. And because Waino has had almost idential run-prevention performance to Lincecum, but has done so in two more starts, that’s why he gets the very slight nod from me.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Sep 29, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
By this (insane) logic, Randy Wells=Adam Wainwright
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
You could argue that Lincecum is taking advantage of his extreme pitchers park to rack up more Ks.
Haven’t heard that one before.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
it's possible - SD inflates K's significantly (8%)
SF actually reduces them, though. Per THT.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
erm
seems I’ve found a new bug.
Should be “per david gassko’s work at THT” with the link:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batted-balls-and-park-effects/
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
read the whole post.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
I did
I just forgot to read under your subject line in the first post you made.
Anyway, the point I was trying to make was Giants Stadium is a huge ballpark and one that generally lends itself to being more a flyball pitcher – not a strikeout pitcher.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Run prevention is a team effort, not and individual pitcher effort
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
based on this entire argument
then the CY should go to the pitcher with the most K’s, K’s/9, K’s/BB, etc anything to do with the K. I seriously give up on this argument because its done nothing but go in circles the entire day, their is two ways of thinking on this, not everyone will be happy just leave it at that.
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
No, you are getting it all wrong
The Cy Young award winner should be the pitcher who would prevent the most runs if he had a league average defense behind him. FIP attempts to model that by using the three outcomes that a pitcher has the most control over, K’s, BB’s and HR’s.
There is nothing special about K’s except for the fact that they are an automatic out thus don’t rely on defense. If you want to consider batted ball data (GB, FB, LD) you can look at tRA, which is also on FanGraphs. Either way, you HAVE to eliminate defense from the equation, or else it isn’t actually an award for pitcher performance.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 30, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Says who?
“The Cy Young award winner should be the pitcher who would prevent the most runs if he had a league average defense behind him. FIP attempts to model that by using the three outcomes that a pitcher has the most control over, K’s, BB’s and HR’s.”
Really? I don’t dispute that it is reasonable to look at the Award that way. But it’s certainly not unreasonable to look at it in other ways.
FWIW, the Giants have a slightly better defense than the Cardinals (at least from a DefEff metric, .703 to .694), which raises an interesting question: Does FIP account for batted ball data? I would imagine that it does not, which makes it a bit more suspect IMHO.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 1, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
FIP accounts for strikeouts, walks and HR
nothing more, nothing less. It can, however, be park-adjusted.
tRA is a stat that incorporates HR, BB, Ks but also batted ball profile (GB, FB etc.). Unlike FIP, it is not modelled to look like ERA (a tRA of <4 is very, very good) It has Lincecum a long, long way ahead of Wainwright in 2009.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 1, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
"The Cy Young award winner should be the pitcher who would prevent the most runs if he had a league average defense behind him. FIP attempts to model that by using the three outcomes that a pitcher has the most control over, K’s, BB’s and HR’s."
Really? I don’t dispute that it is reasonable to look at the Award that way. But it’s certainly not unreasonable to look at it in other ways.
Yeah, I think that’s a completely fair point. It wouldn’t be the biggest travesty ever if Waino or Carp wins it this year – I feel it should be Lincecum, but I can accept there are counter-arguments that lie in the area of "how far do we consider the nebulous concept of “luck” to be relevant to our concept of performance/value?". I think Danup touched on them in a short comment elsewhere in this thread, however, otherwise, I don’t feel they’ve been articulated that well (although you’ve made a defensible argument).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 1, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Use tRA then
You don’t HAVE to use FIP. I personally like to include performance with runners on base. The point is, you DO have to separate pitching from defense somehow.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 1, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Generally speaking, a pitcher will pitch to his defense / park, and so small differences of 2 K / GS (i.e. the difference between Wainwright and Lincecum) are irrelevant to me.
Seriously, 2Ks is huge. HUGE. It is not irrelevant. That’s 2 free outs; each team has 27 outs and each starting pitcher will, on average, account for maybe 18 outs or so per game. 2Ks is more than 10% of that production. Would you consider, say, an extra 10 HR/yr by Pujols to be “irrelevant”?
If you take two otherwise completely equal pitchers, but give one of them 2 free outs which do not advance any runners or score any runs (i.e. an extra 2 K’s per game), is it not pretty obvious that that pitcher will be considerably better?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 6:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know if anyone is even checking this thread any more. . .
but you are making a strawman argument here:
“Seriously, 2Ks is huge. HUGE. It is not irrelevant. That’s 2 free outs; each team has 27 outs and each starting pitcher will, on average, account for maybe 18 outs or so per game. 2Ks is more than 10% of that production. Would you consider, say, an extra 10 HR/yr by Pujols to be "irrelevant"?
If you take two otherwise completely equal pitchers, but give one of them 2 free outs which do not advance any runners or score any runs (i.e. an extra 2 K’s per game), is it not pretty obvious that that pitcher will be considerably better?"
At the baserunner prevention levels that Wainwright and Carpenter have achieved, a very small percentage of groundballs will advance a runner or score a run, and that very small percentage will itself be offset by double play balls (slightly, perhaps, but still offset).
For looking backwards purposes, an out is an out is an out. I might agree with you that all else being equal (mainly injury risk), Lincecum is a better bet to repeat his performance this year than Carpenter or Wainwright. But I choose not to factor that into Cy Young Award voting.
I don’t get the comparison to Pujols’ 10 extra HR per year.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 1, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
You seem to misunderstand the concept of a "groundball"
groundball does not equal out. About a third of groundballs go for a hit. And, per game, Carpenter/Wainwright are only going to get maybe 1-2 more groundballs than Lincecum is.
You seem to also not really be addressing the point – I was merely posting about your assertion that a difference of 2 strikeouts per 9 innings between Waino and Lincecum is “irrelevant”. It’s not. It’s huge. If the two pitchers are otherwise identical (actually, they’re not – Waino gives up more HRs but has a higher GB/FB rate this year) those 2 Ks per game are really, really important.
A K is going to be an out 99.9% of the time. It will never advance a runner. A ball-in-play is only going to be an out 70-odd % of the time, and can go for extra bases, and advance runners.
Also, refuting someone stating “2 extra strikeouts per game is irrelevant” by pointing out that, in fact, 2 extra strikeouts per game, given similar peripheral stats, is VERY freaking relevant, is not a “strawman argument”.
/
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 1, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
You forgot,
Wins, Win percentage, Pitches thrown, Years in the majors, World series won, whether his team is a playoff team, height, and hits as a Yankee.
Oh, but I was thinking of useful measures.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Sep 29, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That was so awesome when Jeter got fewer hits than Harold Baines
Brought tears to my eyes.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Lincecum has been a bit better.
Tim Lincecum also has two complete-game shutouts; Wainwright has none. Lincecum has a lower ERA (if you like to use that metric). Lincecum has more strikeouts. Look, no one is a bigger Adam Wainwright fan than I am and I think I’ve enjoyed this season’s performance from him as much as anyone, but that doesn’t change the fact that Timmy Lincecum has been just a bit better so far this year (with a fraction of the year remaining). If I were voting, I’d vote Lincecum no. 1, Wainwright no. 2, and Carp no. 3.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Why do you hate the Cardinals so much?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
He doesn't
he just hates baseball and america. And pie.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 7:00 AM EDT up reply actions
doesn't Joel Piñeiro have two complete-game shutouts?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 29, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I believe he does.
But he also has hardly any strikeouts (which I value in my Cy Young analysis). Plus, he has the Performance Enhancing Possession (PEP) of the Ghost of Christy Matthewson, which disqualifies him from all postseason awards, according to the BBWAA Code of Sanctimony.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
(I was just being an ass)
Besides, Joel for Gold Glove. Do it, managers!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 29, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I would love to see this.
Who are the frontrunners for P GG this year?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
VEB needs to start stumping for Kick Save
Everyone’s forgotten the poor guy.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 29, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Jack Lazorko
I had a baseball highlights VHS tape about 15 years ago that had a series of plays from a single game started by Jack Lazorko. He was a goalie in high school or something and it really showed; he made 5 outstanding defensive plays. 1 or 2 shots through his 5-hole where he stopped the ball while dropping down in the splits, dove twice on soft grounders near the mound, plus a couple more really fine displays of fielding. At least 3 of those plays would make the top 5 plays at pitcher for any season and he had them all in the same game.
He wasn’t much of a hurler, but he was the best fielding pitcher I’ve ever seen.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
1 or 2 shots through his 5-hole
Sounds painful.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 7:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Joel would actually be having a top 10 Cy season if this were 2007 or 08,
except that it seems like the starting pitching has been quite strong this year.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I think he's probably in the top 10 this year
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 29, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Just off the top of my head,
Lincecum, Waino, Carp, Haren, Johnson, Vasquez, Wandy, Cain…
so yeah, I guess he is in the top 10.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Ubaldo Jimenez has been very good too
Still, only Lincecum, Waino, Vazquez, Johnson, Haren and Carp have been definitively better than Pineiro IMO.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 29, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Cain is a stretch for sure, and looking into it, Wandy is also a bit off Pineiro's pace.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
i think you had a spelling FAIL
Carp, ,Johnson
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Sep 29, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
it must be those obsolete unicode things.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I Think That Some of You...
…are ignoring the fact that the BBWAA leans far moore towards traditional stats. Lincecum may have had a better statistical year than Carp or Waino, but I’d bet my hooves that he doesn’t win it this year. Any bet-takers? No way a 14 game winner trumps a 19 game winner in the eyes of the BBWAA unless there is a humungous difference in supporting stats. This is not the case this year. Moost voters would classify sabrmetrics as supporting stats, since half of them don’t even know what they are, much less udderstand them. Not saying its right or good or anything else, just tellin’ ya cow its gonna be. With 19 wins and solid ‘peripheral’ stats, I’m willing to bet that Waino wins, Lincecum second, and Carp 3rd or 4th.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
I bet you're right.
The answer depends on the question:
1) Who should win?
2) Who will win?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I think most of us have been saying,
that outside of spreadsheet land, Waino is the frontrunner, and if he hits 20 wins, he’s basically a lock, with the simple caveat that while he’s having an excellent season, he really doesn’t seem to be out pitching Lincecum.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
If Waino has a really good last start of the year
he’ll be close to 6 WAR. Whilst I don’t think he deserves the Cy, plenty of less deserving people have won awards in recent years (Howard, Colon, Morneau). I don’t think it’ll be a travesty if a 6 WAR pitcher beats out a near 8 WAR pitcher for the award.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 7:05 AM EDT up reply actions
LUGO
IF (hopefully not), but if the Cards fail to sign Holliday this offseason to an extension. Should the Cardinals consider having Lugo be the starting 2B and moving Skip back to left? This would probably not be the best long term solution as Lugo would be gone after next year and the Cards would again be left with a hole at 2B and should not jerk Skip around by moving him back again. However, this would allow the Cards to spend their money on a very good 3B and a very good SP instead of just on Holliday. I’m not saying this is the best idea or even a good one. I just was wondering about it.
Skip does not have enough offense to be a everyday corner OF
I don't understand the purpose of the line, "I don't need to drink to have fun." Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and sticks when they've invented the lighter?
Especially when coupled with his just okay defense in the OF.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Beats running Dunkiel out there.
But 6ly, Skip should be stuck at 2B and Craig/Mather will probably get LF looks if Holliday walks.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
And, possibly, DeRosa.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yeah, if Holliday walks,
I bet Mo feels the heat and gives DeRo an unwisely large contract.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
This is another reason why Mo should offer DeRosa arbitration.
That way, we kind of have DeRosa held hostage and could, perhaps, get him to agree to a lower cost deal after Holliday leaves for a $180MM contract with the Mets.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
The Holliday resigning is sort of like the Waino Cy campaign to me.
I want it to succeed, but some of the numbers just do not look good.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
OMG yes!
Also, his bat is more valuable at 2B, especially if he continues to improve defensively.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
Also
we have a bunch of very promising OF prospects, and plenty of money to go and get (say) a Bobby Abreu or a Mike Cameron or whoever. There’s really no need to run out a mediocre LF (Schu) when we can probably get a better one cheaply (or free – ALLEN CRAIG BABY!!!!!)
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 29, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Allen Craig needs to be at third base
there is nothing that says he cannot handle the position competently and it is a lot easier to find a good corner outfielder than a good third basemen. I personally would rather us not resign DeRosa so this can happen. I agree with Monk on Abreu although his defense is not very good but he had another very good offensive season. Cameron would be nice but Tony would play him in CF and Colby needs to be there.
I don't understand the purpose of the line, "I don't need to drink to have fun." Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and sticks when they've invented the lighter?
I agree on Craig and 3B,
and have advocated for it most of the season (at least before the DeRosa trade). However, it seems that no one in the FO shares this sentiment. The treatment of Craig demonstrates that he is not a third baseman in the eyes of the organization, right or wrong, and there doesn’t seem to be anything Craig can do to dispell this belief. I’m transitioning from my “Craig for 3B” soapboxing to “Craig Is The New Speez (Minus The Substance Abuse).”
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Craig needs to go into witness protection and grow red facial hair?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Cameron is still excellent in CF
and I get the feeling Colby’s the starter there vs RHP. I could see Cameron in LF or RF (with Ludwick in the other spot) vs RHP and taking many of Colby’s starts in CF vs tough lefties. Abreu would probably be cheap and he’s still above-average, even taking his sucky defence into account.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 7:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Also
Abreu’s ~.400OBP would look pretty sweet in the #2 hole in front of a certain Dominican…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 7:22 AM EDT up reply actions
OT: Matt Holliday hates Oakland!
[fake blockquote] So I went with the foolproof Google Image Search. To analyze the photos, I have created a caring scale from 0 to 2, where 2 points equal the maximum amount of caring. A laugh, toothed smile, or clearly angry face is awarded a 2, while a closed-mouth smile or uncomfortable grimace is awarded 1 point. Stone-faced or sulky countenances are awarded 0 points, since he clearly can’t care less than 0. Batting photos are immediately disqualified because icy nerves of steely cold-blood are preferable during a plate appearance (defined for the purposes of this study as the period of time during which he is holding a baseball bat during a game), and virtually indistinguishable from indifference.
/fake blockquote
AHAHAHA. moar piez!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Engage!
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
by vexedtechie on Sep 29, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
they redid the Caring Continuum in comments, too
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 29, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I like how they showed photos of the back of Holliday's head
for every celebratory Oakland shot.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I had been hoping for a larger sample size
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 29, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Lego heads only come in one size
Unless you’re working with Technix or Duplo, but’s that’s like trying to compare the majors with the NPBL or the minors.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
that ups the value of the smile data
You have to keep switching out the head.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 29, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
hahaha
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Sep 29, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
hahaha
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Sep 29, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
OT Quiz
Do you know the things Meatloaf won’t do for love?
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
...that?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 29, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll bet the "that" is a threesome with another dude or something.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Actually, he really does say what "that" is in the song.
Right at the end of the full version, in the duet section…or at least, I think he does: “Sooner or later you’ll be screwing around…”
Oh yeah
I should have remembered that part. Lame of me…
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Don't worry about it
I’ve always heard people say that Meat Loaf never actually says what “that” is in the song (you know, since I hear people talking about Meat Loaf all the time and all)…it’s a very common (from my point of view) misconception.
I think it is a misconception
But it’s easy to miss, since Meatloaf doesn’t ever actually say “I won’t screw around”, he just says “that” in reference to the lady’s comment.
Furthermore, there are some ambiguities which I think confuse matters even more now that I reflect. He says he would do anything for love, but he won’t do “that”, leading the audience to believe that the “that” is something he’d do for love or for the sake of love, whether to satisfy his partner’s desires or to win her favor, or what have you. Now, at the end of the song he says he won’t “screw around”. “Screwing around” is itself somewhat vague. It probably means he won’t cheat on her though. Cheating on her would not be something one would do “for love” in the first place; why would she want him to cheat on her? So the premise that the audience is led to believe from the beginning must be false. He is not saying that he wouldn’t do “that” for the sake of love; he’s just saying that he won’t do “that” period, in any circumstance.
So I’m led to conclude that there really isn’t anything he wouldn’t do for love. This is kind of like the arguments over the Second Amendment, and whether the “shall not be infringed” clause is dependent on the “militia” part at the beginning.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Sep 29, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I concur with your assessment
and would like to add: comparing discussion of Meat Loaf lyrics to Second Amendment arguments is about thirty-seven different kinds of awesome. :)
Why thank you
Rock n’ Roll is a kin to the Constitution because they’re both all about Freedom. Since Freedom will never truly die, neither will Rock n’ Roll.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I think you're analysis was great and I'ma let you finish
but Bill Clinton had one of the greatest single word analysis of all time! All time!
by Cardfanintherock on Sep 29, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
These will always get recs from me
So if you’re feeling low on recs just do a Kanye and you’ll get at least one.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Its the first one and last one that I will ever do.
It just felt like it would work. Although after reading it again I’m trying to figure out if analysis should be in the plural form?
by Cardfanintherock on Sep 29, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Kanye wouldn't know
so it’s fine.
Well Kanye might know since I do think he is fairly smart, just a douche.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
I wouldn't live your life by this standard.
Just a suggestion.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Yeah, smart people can totally be douches
Example: Bill Clinton. It comes full circle!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
A scalawag, really.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
he supported Reconstruction?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I have a reply to this
but I think I will save it for the game thread.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
If a guy is a womanizer on his own time and he’s not married, I think “cad” is a good description. But if a married man who happens to be President of the United States gets a BJ from a girl half his age while sitting at his desk in teheOval Office, and then lies about it, tries to smear said intern by implying that she’s crazy, and attempting to weasel his way out of self-contradiction through absurd semantic arguments, I think “douche” is totally fair game. We call Rayn Braun “douche” around here all of the time because he wears stupid t-shirts and untucks his jersey. Surely Clinton qualifies.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Blah. Meant to include a subject line there, sorry.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
So What do Yew Call a Guy
who invades an-udder country on false pretenses to secure no-bid contracts for his CEO buddies and leads to the deaths of 100,000 civilians and almoost 5000 American soldiers?
Ooops, is that politics? Bad cow! No pizza!
:=8/
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Hey, you call him whatever you want
Straw man! Meat loaf! NOT OUTS BARMES DIDN’T CATCH THE BALL
Heh heh.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
There is Entirely...
….too mooch meat loaf referencing today. What about a nice piece of chicken?
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
How about a beef-less meatloaf?
Ground lamb, pork, and turkey or something. I think that’d be pretty good.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
So, if he hadn't lied about it
he wouldn’t be a douche? Lots of people have cheated on their wives. Do you really want to call Martin Luther King, Jr. a douche? Or Franklin Roosevelt? Or Newt Gingrich? The list is endless, really.
I think we all know that most men in power abuse their powers one way or another. Some cheat on their wives, others start unjust wars. Some steal money. Blah blah blah.
But let’s stop with the politics. I want to keep liking some of you.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
For the record
I think anybody who cheats on his wife is a douche. I don’t think you can’t be a good person if you do those things. It’s simply a douche thing to do and yes, all those people you mentioned, regardless of their place in history was being a douche at the time. That doesn’t define them as a person. I use the term “douche” rather lightly. Everyone is flawed, etc. As I said below, I (perhaps foolishly since the guy was such a polarizing figure and was president" didn’t really think I was making a political argument, merely a personal one, so I apologize if I offended anybody.
Kanye is an asshat! There, that shouldn’t be too controversial.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
When I think of DBs, I think
of this.
I think we have a language disconnect.
I guess my whole point is, why bring it up? BASEBALL!
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
Well, somebody brought up Meatloaf
and then Kanye and Bill Clinton and I got in with the wrong crowd.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
lol
that would make roughly 60 percent of the populace a ‘douche’ per your standards. of course you are free to have those standards. personally i would use another word, douche for me isn’t a moral
descriptor and it seems you are making moral judgments on his behavior.
Yeah, the moral angle was the original problem.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Lemme fix that for you..
I think we all know that most men people in power abuse their powers one way or another.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I was saying men as in mankind.
But since you brought it up…
There are, and have been, very few women in power. SSS.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
True
but those that were, as a general rule, abused their power the same as men in the same position. It’s a human flaw, not a gender specific one.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Like I said, I was referring to mankind.
Also, we were talking about DBs. I’ve never heard a woman referred to as such.
And, again, I cite small sample size.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
a friend and I were talking about this
drinking a brew in the gaslamp district in SD before watching the cards beat up the pads
A female DB is to be referred to as an ’Eve"
Summer's Eve I'm guessing
"...football games always make me thankful for two things:
1. Teams that pass the ball downfield.
2. Baseball games. "
--DanUpBaby
Oh yeah?
Well, what about the Amazons? What with their killing, and crushing their enemies, and…
…what’s that? Mythical, you say?
Hmm. Well, I feel silly now.
Agamemnon was a total douche
In his defense, Achilles’ behavior was quite douchey as well. In fact, just about everybody in that book was a douche at some point, and the gods were even worse.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Lol at some people cheat on their wives
and some people start unjust wars. It just sounds funny.
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 29, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
It's probably a bitchin' snowflake pattern on an Affliction t-shirt
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Well, we could invade three dozen other countries
if we really wanted to rid the world of human rights violations, but I’d rather not be the world police.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
i'm sorry, no politics
i just hate when people who have an axe to grind against GW pop off like that about the war. if big O “started” a war, no one would say anything about it. just like now that a D is in the white house, no one’s protesting the war anymore. where are the war protesters? where’s cindy? oh, she’s still there. but her friends in the press suddenly don’t care about her because they’re better friend is in the white house.
the hypocrisy really pisses me off is all.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
um, yeah, if the obama administration got me shot at for bullshit reasons, I'd dislike him.
Life and death ain’t political.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Obama is facing a ton of criticism
from both the left and right, something G-Dub never had to deal with.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
He should trick his critics into coming to the UK
and we could get them with our death panels.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 7:49 AM EDT up reply actions
He could do that,
but since he faces absolutely no unfair criticism he doesn’t have to.
That is the argument, right?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Shit people.
You know better than this. Stop talking politics. And don’t slip in potshots only to follow them up with “I don’t want to talk about politics.”
I hate running across this. It’s extremely frustrating.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Also
according to Webster’s, a cad is “a man who acts with deliberate disregard for another’s feelings or rights”
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
Huh
dictionary.com had a definition something like “an ill-bred man with poor manners, especially in regards to treament of women” or alternatively something more specifically about young people. I had a similar understanding; I thought “cad” had specifically to do with womanizing but maybe that’s just popular usage.
I honestly didn’t think the douchiness of said actions were in dispute, so I didn’t think I was in much danger of starting a “political” argument per se, just playful back and forth.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Some of us don't think Bill Clinton is a douche.
There’s the rub.
(Not advocating Bill Clinton’s personal decisions. Yuck.)
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
I guess I use it more broadly than most?
I’m aware of the more specific usage to describe the collar poppin’ Papelbon types, obviously.
But I also use it to describe lots of stuff of which I disapprove.
I heart the Cardinals, who’s with me???
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I'm actually not a big fan of the word, especially
since almost every MLB player dresses like 
this. Don’t look ClemsonGirl.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
Ah hahaha
Is that Sizemore? I’m gonna have to show this to my Cleveland buddy some time.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
He is balding and everything
He needs to keep his head warm to as not to mess up his biorhythms or something.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
most of the team needs to keep their heads warm
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
That is the best picture ever.
He loos so freaking amazing in t-shirts. OMG. I’m stealing this. Thank you.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
I don't like the particular design
but he looks good init.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
I think it makes him look small.
Plus, it’s a purple Remetee shirt!
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
I like small.
His arms look amazing though. And I love arms.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
All girls say that until,
you know, they aren’t girls anymore.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
Curls get the girls!
Pipe laying ability gets the women.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
I've always put more faith in my arc-welding, personally...
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions
His arms do.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Sep 29, 2009 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Still, are We All Not Capable..
…of douchbaggery at one point or an-udder? Does a single bad decision brand us forever? I like to think not. Except for Tonya Harding. That was pretty douchbaggy.
:=8/
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Doesn't this conversation violate the "no politics" understanding here?
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Musial
I used to be scared, denying who I was
Acting straight but then going out to the gay fish clubs
Dancing with the Marlins making out with the all the Snappers
I’d take a Salmon home and work that Coddle Fin for hours
But now I’m out and I’m free to love what I want
Be it Yellow Fin or Bass or them trout in Vermont
I slapped that Holland ass, make that Grouper butt shake
I’ll come to your house and have an orgy in your motherf*ckin’ fish tank
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
More like this
"Obviously, tipping pitches didn't help" - John Smotzl
"If you disrespect the Baseball Gods, you'll get slapped." - TLR Passan
No, this.
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
That pic was to big
and I couldn’t resize it at work.
"Obviously, tipping pitches didn't help" - John Smotzl
"If you disrespect the Baseball Gods, you'll get slapped." - TLR Passan
quite frankly, that's all you need...
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
This must be one of those awesome South Park episodes that I've never seen.
I’m sure that within its proper context the phrase “gay fish” is hysterical
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
help, I am confusing this thread with Carp love
I blame thepainguy.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
You know the joke right?
…Do you like fish sticks?
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
I love fish sticks
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Sep 29, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
You're a gay fish
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
No, I really don't
But I’ll probably break down soon and look some stuff up, so don’t ruin it for me.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Mutha 'uckin gay fish...
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
too many mutha uckas
uckin with my shi*
*yes I know this is a different reference
by brackenthebox on Sep 29, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Haha, that was my facebook status earlier today.
Flight of the Conchords FTW.
I’m the hiphopopotamus, my lyrics are bottomless.
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
Our programming determined that the most efficient answer
was to shut their motherboard-f@$%ing systems down!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Ohhh yeah
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
Hotlink apologies.
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
Along the lines of the Cy young and sporcle
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
Got 74 of 95.
Missed some pretty bad ones- Hunter, Ford. Also, had no idea Pat Hentgen won one (or who that is). Missed Saberhagen and kept guessing Blyleven (oh my revisionism).
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I presume you're joking...
about Hentgen…?
Just another failed reclamation project.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Sep 29, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I really had no idea who that was when he popped up.
I guess he just fell through a gap in my historical baseball learning.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Pat Hentgen was a cardinal
and a DD project. Won his Cy with Toronto, I believe. 1996 10 cg and 3 SO’s.
"Obviously, tipping pitches didn't help" - John Smotzl
"If you disrespect the Baseball Gods, you'll get slapped." - TLR Passan
Boog needs to remember his stache wax first
baby steps
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I think Lincecum should probably win
but Carp is another fine choice…. if he didn’t have that freak injury, he wouldn’t have missed those extra IP… and without him I’m not so sure the Cardinals would have had the season they did… same could be said about Wainwright but Carp just is a better pitcher imo
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions
Wainwright's ERA
over 650 innings, is vastly out-performing his FIP. May just be a statistical anomaly, but you have to begin to wonder whether FIP is underrating him somewhat (hard to argue that, really, given his tRA isn’t that spectacular either, although his BABIP has been about league-average his entire career, and he’s had a better-than-average LOB% and good WPA/LI and Clutch ratings; maybe he’s just been consistently solid in the important at-bats).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
Carp's WPA
is far better than either Wainwright’s or Tim’s
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
if you go by the bizarre pitching Clutch stat on fangraphs
Wainwright is more clutch though… but then again, it has Braden Looper as the most clutchy pitcher though
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
It seems like the Cards D has been pretty good over his career, which could account for some of the gap.
Also, isn’t FIP a regression? I thought I read that that’s why it rarely actually nails a player’s ERA unless he conforms to the ideal FIP pitcher (like Lincecum does). I think it’s entirely possible that FIP underrates Waino a bit just because he isn’t a high K pitcher. For some reason tRA has hated Waino pretty badly as well, I don’t really know the formula for tRA, however, so I can’t speculate as to what the cause is there.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
tRA isn't scaled to ERA
he’s actually performed better vs the average pitcher by tRA than he has by FIP over his career (anything below 4 for tRA is super good).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 29, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I knew that, I was sort of using hate hyperbolically,
because compared to Lincecum and Carp, tRA doesn’t really like Waino as much.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
NL's Best Record
We are tied with the Phillies, 2.5 GB of LA for the league’s best record. I very much want to finish ahead of the Phillies. In the event we face off against them in the NLCS, it would be nice to only have three games in that band box they call a ballpark.
Remaining games for Philadelphia:
3 at home vs. Houston
3 at home vs. Florida
Remaining games for the Cards:
3 at Cincy
3 at home vs. Milwaukee
The Braves are now a mere 2 GB of the Rockies for the Wild Card. The Braves have 2 games at home against the Marlins and then finish the season with a 3-game series in Atlanta versus the Nats. Meanwhile, the Rockies host a 3-game set against Milwaukee and then close out the season with 3 games at Chavez Ravine.
If the Braves win the Wild Card, they would face either the Dodgers or Cardinals (if one of us has the NL’s best record). If the Braves win the Wild Card, the Phils wind up with the best record, and we finish behind LA with the NL’s third-best record, we would face Philadelphia in the NLDS, correct?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
That is correct
Which is why I actually (God forgive me!) wondered whether or not I actually wanted the Cards to win that last game against the Rockies or not.
I don't want to see the Braves in the playoffs
Period.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Also
I think that remaining schedule favors us, if only slightly, and even though we have to go on the road, and the Phils have all their games at home…although, unfortunately, according to the probables, it looks like the Phils will miss Josh Johnson.
(Just FYI, it looks like the Braves have 4 with Washington left.)
Miscounted.
My mistake. So, they are sitting even prettier. I wonder if they would sell out their NLDS games, should they happen to win the Wild Card?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
They wouldn't come close...
Turner Field was about 30% full last night in a very meaningful game. Terrible fans in every respect.
V, b.
Ugh, that's woeful if it's true...
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I saw that.
Perhaps it’s just the chip on my shoulder but have the umps really been giving us the raw end lately or what?
Also, I haven’t noticed you around for a bit. Welcome back?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Worst thing about that is that, despite the evidence, Barmes didn't own up to it
you know when you’ve put a ball on the grass. It didn’t just “happen too fast”. There’s no way you can ground a ball with your glove nowhere near it (as in the picture) and not realise it.
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with conning the umps (players do that to some extent all the time with balls/strikes and tags etc.) or not owning up on the park as the play was made (heck, I wouldn’t in a playoff race) but I’d certainly say after the game “yeah, I think I downed it, we got a bit lucky there” and thus looks somewhat less douchey.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah...
The Rockies were tried in the VEB court yesterday, with the verdict being guilty. They were sentenced to death by GOBs in the NLDS.
V, b.
hey, Big League Stew took a shot at Autotune
if you join me in labeling it as cringe-worthy as autotuned Rasmus Girl,
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
This is the worst thing ever.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Totally not comparable.
RasmusGirl loves baseball and actually knows stuff about Marie does not and it shows.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Motherfuckers.
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
Okay, so here's a question
Philly’s bizarre reverse home/road split from the first half of the season (which now appears to have (mostly) righted itself: Number one, where the heck did it come from? And, number two, how would this affect whether or not we’d want to have home field advantage in an NLCS against the Phils?
(Honestly, I’m pretty sure I know the answer already…namely, why would you ever want to give up home field advantage, you idiot?…but I figured I’d toss the idea out there for discussion.)
Because in Philly....
…if u strike out with the bases loaded in a play-off game they will kill you. And your family. And burn down your house. And sew salt extracted from a million cheese steaks and soft pretzels on the ruins. And those are the reasonable ones!
:=8.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
and lasers.
on sharks.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
good think Waino doesn't pitch in PNC that often...
“I wanted Zach [Duke] to have a nice ovation from the fans,” Russell said. “He did a heck of a job, pitched a great game. We were trying to get him a shutout and, unfortunately, they scored the run. We just wanted to give the fans an opportunity to appreciate what he did rather than the game just being over. We needed to get Donnie a little work today with Karstens and him both pitching Wednesday. It was good that we got Donnie in the game. That’ll make him a little more prepared.”
Did Russell weight the reward of a complete game vs. the ovation?
“He did his job. Complete games are nice for a pitcher. But, to come off the mound and have the crowd give you an ovation, that was Zach’s moment, in my opinion. They could have really recognized what he did by himself coming off the field. Again, it was nice that we were able to get Donnie Veal into the game because he’s pitching Wednesday. I’m not going to take anything away from Zach. I guess that’s the story, that I took him out, but he deserved the ovation.”
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
not to mention... this Bud's for you...
Check out the player quotes equating it to getting out of a foxhole under fire. (You left your brother there, Adam! You left him!)
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
oh, now I remember what I came online for. Minnesota v. Detroit!
Tied 1-1 in the sixth. Doubleheader baybee.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2009_09_29_minmlb_detmlb_1&mode=gameday
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
This is why I love baseball.
Surely, this has to be the most important series of the regular season, yes?
wrong
no yankees or red sox
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Blacked out for me!
I hate Fort Wayne…
…populated by unintelligent cubs fans
…can’t watch any Cards games unless vs Cubs/Reds/Natl Broadcast
…Cubs fans
…Can’t watch todays Tigers games
…Cubs fans
…and Cubs fans.
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
Bodyslam is out. Zach Miner is in.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Barmes probably didn't catch that ball
Maybe it’s already been posted, but….
i just tried to link to the Denver Post photo of Barmes not catching the ball...
we have two threads (including here) and a fanshot.
FWIW
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
That's what I get for being late
..and lazy…
How to judge?
To me, the statistics (Sabremetric or otherwise), are just for the qualification round. When deciding between the 3 candidates, I ask myself who I would want starting game 7.
Carpenter, no question. This is not to say that Wainwright isn’t a big game pitcher, because he most definitely is. Too early to say frankly on Lincecum, but he’s faltered a little down the stretch, when his team was in a (at the time) tight wild card race.
Yeah, I think Carp should get it too
but any of the 3 would be good
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
is there html for a backwards K?
because… that should really exist.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
that'll get caught in java disabled...
cool site, though…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Hmm...
Here‘s a video about backwards text in HTML, but I didn’t watch it.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
I was just hoping it's actually a term from a scientific field or another language
so we can appropriate it. but it seems the character-map dictators don’t like baseball. as far as I know.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
oooooooh.
ʞ
my day is made.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
She's a witch!
Burn her!
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 29, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I found it.
just copied and pasted.
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080810173813AADGDLX
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
Well, I've figured out that it's the international phonetic alphabet symbol for "velar click" whatever that means.
It’s really more of a “flipped 180 clockwise” k than a mirrored k, but still. The unicode for it is U+029E. Does anybody know how to html that sucker straight into the text so one doesn’t have to copy paste? That would be fun for gamethreads.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I'll trade you
http://www.fileformat.info/info/unicode/char/029e/index.htm
Alt +029E
allegedly.
I’m looking for a bittersweet photo — Jim Edmonds was toasting Darryl Kile’s jersey. Problem is, I can’t remember which WS it was.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I don't understand what that means...
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
it doesn't seem to work for me
like ñ is holding down Alt then going 164 and voila.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
According to wikipedia, it's obsolete as an IPA symbol.
I have a feeling that to easily use it somebody’d have to download an IPA font or something.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
just remove the space after the &
& #0670; = ʞ
by brackenthebox on Sep 29, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
this should work for any unicode character
though it counts on the browser to render it. Just convert the hex unicode number to decimal and plug in to &#____;
by brackenthebox on Sep 29, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Make sure you have the semicolon
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
That looks like a rotated lower-case k
Is there one for a capital k? Not trying to be a dick or anything, just curious.
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 29, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
it's also a descender which is unfortunate
I just htmled it; didn’t find the original
by brackenthebox on Sep 29, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
does it float?
"Obviously, tipping pitches didn't help" - John Smotzl
"If you disrespect the Baseball Gods, you'll get slapped." - TLR Passan
A WITCH!
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
gooey butter strawman cake
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
no love for butter?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Piniero tonight?
KKʞ ʞʞK Kʞʞ ʞKK KKK ʞʞʞ ʞKʞ ʞKK KKK
27 K perfect game, yes?
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
So, apparently, tonight
Jo-el’s body will receive a special, one-time appearance from the Ghost of Walter Johnson?
Twins up 2-1, top of 10th, 0 out
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Sep 29, 2009 2:44 PM EDT reply actions
Way to go, Twinkies!!
Or, more accurately, thanks for the two consecutive wild pitches, Lyon!
by BTown Birds fan on Sep 29, 2009 2:45 PM EDT reply actions
I always get Orlando Cabrera and Orlando Hudon confused
I thought “wow, I had no idea Orlando’s offense had fallen that much—oh wait.”
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
does Cabrera have a nickname?
I swear I can only remember that one is O-Dog.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
The OC!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
aha
I think of something else entirely when I hear “The OC”. no wonder I can’t remember it…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
A tremendous game going into extra innings,
which is only the first half of a doubleheader, which are the first two games of the single most important series this season…and the WWL’s website leads with college football. Yeah, that sounds about right.
I was just about to comment on that
stupid handegg!!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
next on WWL: baseball is dead and boring and dead boring!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Now let's talk about whether Tony Romo and Tom Brady are still True Leaders
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Tony Romo is not a superstar! Tom Brady has a better girlfriend!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I'd bet he has a better girlfriend too
by brackenthebox on Sep 29, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
If that's the case, then what a douche
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
that's what I said when they told me about Theo Epstein
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i sit corrected
our family stopped talking about tom brady that long ago
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Leadoff HR by Granderson
Twins now up 3-2. Good thing they got that insurance run.
by BTown Birds fan on Sep 29, 2009 2:54 PM EDT reply actions
Wow, I'm not a big Twins or Tigers fan by any means,
but this is a great game to listen to. I love playoff baseball!
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Sep 29, 2009 2:55 PM EDT reply actions
Wow, fail
*pennant race baseball
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Sep 29, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
although I do love playoff baseball too.
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Sep 29, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
But it sure has a playoff atmosphere
It really does, Al
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Does that mean
it’s like getting playoff baseball, without giving up anything?
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Sep 29, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
you're you-knowing yourself?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Hopefully not in the biblical sense
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Sep 29, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
some guys can...
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
THIS is why SBN sites need to use their tags
found the live threads:
http://www.blessyouboys.com/2009/9/29/1060687/game-156-extra-innings-thread
http://www.twinkietown.com/2009/9/29/1060625/twins-tigers-cont-game-1
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I think the twins will make it into the playoffs
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
2 of my friends are going to the Tigers/Sox game on the 4th...
…one’s a tigers fan, the other a sox fan. I hope the sox thwart the Tigers playoff chances so I’m the only one of the 3 of us that cares about baseball in October.
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
It's still going to be tough...
They face Verlander tonight. If they lose, they’ll need to win tomorrow and Thursday to avoid being down 2 games with 3 to go.
V, b.
I'd rather face the Tigers
The Twins would beat us in two.
by olddomination on Sep 29, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I think now you're realizing why Lugo was run out of Boston
Imagine going from Alex Gonzalez, arguably the best defensive shortstop in the league and investing almost 10 million per in Lugo, a terrible fielder, who incidentally didn’t really provide much, if any, an upgrade over Gonzalez offensively.
One thing that has started to rear it’s ugly head (and which I fear in the playoffs) is Lugo’s erratic throwing in addition to his lack of range, glove, etc…
I felt like I was the main character in a bad Nic Cage movie when he was throwing the ball during the final out of the clincher in Colorado and I had a brief flash-forward of the ball going into the Rockies’ dugout. Thankfully, Franklin also sucks with the glove.
Library of Congress early 1900s baseball photos
I posted a Fanshot, but thought I’d provide a link in the daily comment thread because I think it’s really cool. Apparently the Library of Congress has a Flickr Photostream of early 1900s baseball photos. It’s really cool and definitely worth checking out.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
What an awesome skit...
“My father’s passed…he was a farmer”
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
And her husband was a Civil War soldier, off fighting.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
"There's a date here, but it is barely scrutable"
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 29, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't that great?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Non-Cardinal favorite teams: Go
Mine you ask? Ok:
1. Yankees (Can’t help it, live in NYC, Don Mattingly from my hometown)
2. Natinals
3. Whoever signs Milton Bradley
4. 1998 Seattle Mariners
Free Milton
I agree with all but #1
Fuck Derek Jeter
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I hate the Angels and want them to kill themselves
I like the A’s though, mainly because of Brett Anderson.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
There are other teams to root for?
blasphemy.
"Obviously, tipping pitches didn't help" - John Smotzl
"If you disrespect the Baseball Gods, you'll get slapped." - TLR Passan
There are easily 1,500+ games per season which have no impact on the Cardinals
I think it is OK to have an innocent interest in some of them
Free Milton
The Cow's
1. Baltimoo
2. Whoever beats the Yankees
3. Whoever beats the Mets
4. Whoever beats the Yankees and THEN the Mets.
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Wouldn't it be Whmooooever beats?
Or technically, Whmooooomever?
Yo MLBPA, I'm really happy for you, and I'mma let you finish, but Albert is the most ridiculous player of all time. OF ALL TIME!
I have a soft spot for the Os too.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions
No.
I just hate the Yankees. I don’t blame them for spending money. I just hate them.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
But..
..if you blow up their new Death Star stadium, what about all those independent cowtractors who are innocently making a living?
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
twice
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 29, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
There won't be any
donkey’s involved in this thread, will there?
"Obviously, tipping pitches didn't help" - John Smotzl
"If you disrespect the Baseball Gods, you'll get slapped." - TLR Passan
they weren't even supposed to be in this thread today
by brackenthebox on Sep 29, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I Seriously Think Brendan Ryan's
nickname should be Happy Scrappy Hero Pup…
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Those contractors knew the risk when they accepted the job
And what the hell smells like shoe polish?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
East coast bias, if you will
1. Rays
2. Blue Jays
3. Orioles
4. Yankees (when playing the Red Sox)
by brackenthebox on Sep 29, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Cardinal biased
1 Memphis Redbirds
2 Springfield Cardinals
3 Palm Beach Cardinals,
4 Quad Cities River Bandits
"The almighty tells me he can get me out of this mess, but he’s pretty sure you’re screwed" Albert to opposing pitchers.
Don't forget the Muckdogs.
"The almighty tells me he can get me out of this mess, but he’s pretty sure you’re screwed" Albert to opposing pitchers.
Twins and Rays in the AL
NL…well, I guess the Pirates, if only because darn it, I just feel sorry for them at this point.
All NL
Reds, Pirates, Friars, Natties. Cuz they are all basically harmless and need somebody to care about them. And I despise the AL. I spit on the junior circuit.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 29, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Mine
1. Angels
2. Royals
3. Bluejays
4. Twins
Lived in Anaheim for a year so it’s hard not to root for the halos.
by Mulliganstew on Sep 29, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok
1. Indians
2. Rangers
3. Braves
4. Orioles
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 29, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
High five
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
by jd is legend on Sep 29, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
i feel your pain
i live in Overland Park, and well I tried rooting for them, but most of the fans at the K just arent very classy, and personify to me why the Royals suck and always will
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
I actually think that Waino and Lincecum are equal in value this year
While Waino’s defense independent stats are nowhere close, FIP and tRA strip away timing from the equation as well. That is something that I think should be considered when judging a pitchers value.
Lincecum has pitched 218 innings with a 2.47 ERA. That comes with a 2.34 FIP, a .301 BABIP and a 76% strand rate (which is what you would expect from a pitcher who gets as many K’s as him), so he has really gotten lucky or unlucky either way.
Waino has pitched 227 innings with a 2.58 ERA. That comes with a 3.21 FIP, a .308 BABIP (actually higher than Lincey’s despite a lower LD rate) and an 81% strand rate.
It appears that the difference in FIP between the two is canceled out by the fact that Waino has pitched much better with runners on base. A pitchers job is to give up the fewest runs, not to have the best FIP. The only reason that we would use FIP is to separate pitching and defense. However, if one pitcher does a better job than the other at pitching with runners on base, he should be rewarded for that.
as good a place as any to ask this
Is there any justification for normalizing by IP in FIP instead of something like PA against, other than historical grounds (or to better match ERA)? It seems strange to only normalize by outs and ignore all the other outcomes. It also seems to make splits trickier.
by brackenthebox on Sep 29, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know
tRA (which is like FIP, expect with batted ball data) is xRuns/xOuts*27, which is what you are looking for. tRA is a cleaner looking formula than FIP; although I’m not sure if it actually makes a difference.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 29, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont think there is justification
Just like we consistently use K/9 and BB/9…we should really be using K/PAA*27 or something
Free Milton
that's very true.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
this is definitely what it comes down to
the BABIP surprised me, which led me to his RISP numbers. They aren’t repeatable, but neither are, I guess, most hitters’ career seasons.
It appears that the difference in FIP between the two is canceled out by the fact that Waino has pitched much better with runners on base. A pitchers job is to give up the fewest runs, not to have the best FIP. The only reason that we would use FIP is to separate pitching and defense. However, if one pitcher does a better job than the other at pitching with runners on base, he should be rewarded for that.
But that’s a silly argument – strand rate doesn’t necessarily mean that Wainwright’s pitched better with runners on base; it could just as easily mean that he’s gotten luckier with runners on base (and, obviously, there are fewer ABs in a season with runners on base than there are overall, so it’s an even smaller sample size and, you’d imagine, more prone to variation). Whilst better pitchers generally have better strand rates, there IS a significant amount of variation.
Could it not simply be that the GB Lincecum has produced with runners on haven’t found the gloves of the (considerably poorer) San Francisco infielders as often as they have for Wainwright?
Would a better measure of “who’s pitched better with runners on” not be FIP with RISP, or tRA with men on base, or FIP with men on base, or something? Surely pure strand rate has exactly the same deleterious characteristics as ERA – it’s not defense- or luck-independent?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Yet another of my entirely hypothetical examples:
a pitcher who throws 6 innings, lets a runner on in every inning, and gives up a pair of screaming line drives that happen to go straight at the third baseman and into his glove, will have a 100% strand rate. A guy who does the same thing but strikes out every single hitter except for one guy who has his catcher pass a ball, and then gives up a little squibber on a virtual infield flyball over the shortstop’s head, will have a <100% strand rate. Who pitched better with runners on base?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Your analogy is unnecessary.
It’s certainly possible that strand rates aren’t coupled to talent, but since it’s an empirical reason that can serve as evidence supporting the fact that Wainwright has comparable stats to Lincecum without the K’s, it’s still as valid as a piece of evidence to support his Cy candidacy as win totals.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Win totals are not a valid piece of evidence to support his Cy candidacy
I thought we were all agreed on that.
VEP, however, was arguing that strand rate WAS a valid piece of evidence. To some extent, it is, but it’s kinda circumstantial-and-crappy evidence. To make up for the frankly HUGE deficit in FIP and all the meaningful peripheral stats barring GB rate, I think I need a pretty strong FIELDING- AND LUCK-INDEPENDENT stat to prove Waino’s been more clutch.
Since he’s allowing a ton more baserunners (given an equal fielding set-up and equal luck), he’s going to have to be quite a lot better than Tiny Tim at pitching with runners on to convince me (or anyone, objectively) that he’s been better this year.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
independence from luck
isn’t always key to MVP discussions, where a guy having an enormous BABIP spike can win the award just as easily as Albert Pujols. I’m not sure it shouldn’t, separated from fielding, be allowed into the Cy Young discussion.
FIP with runners on
was the motivation for my question above about IP normalizations. I’m not sure I know how to interpret FIP splits. tRA has an easier split interpretation, I think.
You could definitely imagine a modified tRA that accounts for situation (e.g., favoring GB with a runner on first, or disfavoring FB with a runner on third). Does anything like this exist?
by brackenthebox on Sep 30, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
You could definitely imagine a modified tRA that accounts for situation (e.g., favoring GB with a runner on first, or disfavoring FB with a runner on third).
That sounds really hot. I would certainly hit it.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I understand that Strand Rate is luck
However, it’s clear that based on Waino’s BABIP, he’s pitched very well with runners on base.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 30, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
You guys want to see what a world-class handegg QB looks like?
Here we have everyone going left except the guy that called the play in the huddle. He goes right, and STILL tries to sell the fake to the non-existent RB. Win.
V, b.
I think that RB was on my backyard team in 1992
He was a stud and always seemed to hold off Reggie White long enough for me to complete the TD. Glad to see he made the bigtime
Free Milton
It was funny as shit to see this live...
He REALLY tried to sell the fake, and everyone already knew he had gone the wrong way.
V, b.
Lineups per the P-D...
Cardinals:
Schumaker 2b
Lugo ss
Pujols 1b
Holliday lf
Rasmus cf
Ludwick rf
DeRosa 3b
LaRue c
Pineiro p
Cincinnati:
Taveras cf
Janish ss
Votto 1b
Phillips 2b
Rolen 3b
Bruce rf
Balentien lf
Hernandez c
Bailey p
V, b.
Rasmus batting 5th again.
intriguing.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
need moar pags lite
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
"OHHHHH!!!!!!! IT TASTES. SO. GOOD!!!!!!!!!!"
-BOOOOOOOOG
Damn you Clint Barmes for hurting Yadi!!
(And for that non-catch catch that cost us the game on Sunday.)
by BTown Birds fan on Sep 29, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Are errors an input to UZR?
‘Cause Albert’s made quite an awful lot this year.
by Andyfantastic on Sep 29, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I realized that afterwards...
I just can’t imagine Miguel Cabrera as being any good at first. Not that I’ve watched him.
V, b.
You just used the Joe Morgan defense!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Dave Concepcion invented first base
according to JM
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Sep 29, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
2.3 to 1.8 UZR
I don’t even know if that’s “better” in the .400 OBP to .395 sense. I think I might call them about even this season. The total at 1B is not even close. Albert’s UZR/150 (we’ll make it a rate stat to offset the disparity in innings played at the position) is 5.8 and Cabrera’s is -1.3. This could be a cited as an example of defense being subject to up or down years just like offense.
Date from www.fangraphs.com
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Data* not "Date"
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Fangraphs works, e-Harmony doesn't
Don’t let the commercials fool ya
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
it's also a career high UZR/150 for cabrera
and a career low for Pujols
by brackenthebox on Sep 29, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
If you read mgl...
on UZR, you realize people put a LOT more faith into it than is warranted. One problem is sample size. Miggy only had 142 expected outs in 2009.
Ask me about my avatar!
Well his UZR/150
for this year is at 1.0 and Miggy’s is at 1.9 but this could just be an aberration as last year pujols was at 8.5 and miggy was at -5.2
No excuses. No injuries. No "better luck next time"
Do it, and shut the f—- up.
-Reggie Jackson
Carpenter for Cy Young
Here is a stat that I think should be weighted heavily in the discussion: number of starts in which the starting pitcher allowed more than 3 runs.
Lincecum – 8 (of 31 starts)
Wainwright – 7 (of 33 starts)
Carpenter – 3 (of 27 starts)
Other stats:
Wainwright has received (per start, on average) 1 more run of support than Lincecum (4.48 v 3.48); Carp has received slightly less than Timmy (3.44)
Continuing with the run support angle, Carpenter didn’t let his teammates ineffectiveness get him down. Records with Run Support <= 3:
Carpenter (19 games) 8-4
Lincecum (17 games) 4-7
Wainwright (15 games) 3-7
(another example of giving Lincecum too much credit for his team’s inept offense)
Wainwright has been pinned with 6 losses when giving up 3 runs or less, compared to 3 for Lincecum & 2 for Carpenter (I guess this more of a point in A.D.A.M.’s favor)
Using per-game WPA values as a barometer, any start with a game value of +.100 or better counts as a Win; -.100 or worse is a Loss; in between is a No Decision:
Lincecum 19-8
Wainwright 19-5
Carpenter 18-2
Also, a quick point about defense and strikeouts: the better a team’s defense, the same pitching staff will have fewer strikeouts because more batted balls will turn into outs. If a pitcher’s ability to strike out batters (on a per batter basis) remains constant, a pitcher will record a greater percentage of outs via the strikeout as the quality of defense decreases. The effect may be minimal, given the range of defensive quality between the best MLB team and the worst, but it does exist.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
by Solanus on Sep 29, 2009 5:27 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Carp IS the better pitcher
But the CY is a season award. I agree, based on both the numbers and my own observations throughout the season, that Carp is the more dominating pitcher. The # of starts allowing more than three runs says a lot.
But Wainwright has been remarkably consistent all year, and there’s something to be said for that, especially considering our remarkably inconsistent offense. If Carp is healthy all year, he’s a shoo-in.
That said, if A.D.A.M. short-circuits in his last start (reverse jinx?), and Carp pitches a 7+ inning shutout, I think Carp could win it.
I honestly don’t think Lincecum is even in the picture anymore for the majority of the BBWAA.
P.S. this is my first post, so go easy on me. I made a good faith attempt to follow the rules, and I even read the glossary (note my use of the clever A.D.A.M. nickname).
Wainwright had a pretty shaky start to the season.
Since then, he’s been consistent.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
As the BBWAA have repeatedly proved
stats in April are actually meaningless and have no bearing whatsoever on a team’s success. Stats gained in September in a pennant race, however, are equivalent to ~50% of a player’s overall worth. It’s all about the clutch.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions
i guess missing
4, 4! starts is an entire season how could i be so blind….I finally see the light.
thank you solanus for providing some stats that actually have backed up my arguments all day. you have been rec’d…
I am not a timmy hater, not at all by far, But i feel like the A.D.A.M and Carp have just been better. Carp especially, my argument for Waino is based off of wins which more then likely will decide it with the BBWAA,
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Good post solanus
don’t know if I agree with all of it but it’s an interesting take on the subject.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Here is a stat that I think should be weighted heavily in the discussion: number of starts in which the starting pitcher allowed more than 3 runs.
Lincecum – 8 (of 31 starts)
Wainwright – 7 (of 33 starts)
Carpenter – 3 (of 27 starts)
One argument against this:
Here is a stat that I think should be considered largely meaningless and a wash in the discussion: number of starts in which the starting pitcher allowed 3 runs or fewer:
Lincecum – 23
Wainwright – 26
Carpenter – 24
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions
That's kind of like fielding percentage
When you look at two 3rd basemen, one with a fielding percentage of .960 and the other with .980, you don’t say that the .980 is only 2% better. You say that his error rate is half as much as the other guy.
What you said above is that all three pitchers helped their team win roughly the same amount of games each. What I said is that Lincecum and Wainwright helped their team lose over twice as many games as Carpenter did. That is where the quality of Carp’s season comes through.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
Not that fielding percentage is a good stat
It is just understanding the numbers that you are looking at and determining the best information that you can glean from them.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
But it's quite an arbitrary figure to pick
3 runs, I mean. I actually quite LIKE QS as a quick-and-dirty stat, it’s much better than Wins, but there are major shortfalls that mean that it’s probably less descriptive than the sabr-type stats or a more in-depth “game effect” stat.
What I mean is, how many of those “over 3 runs” games were, say, Lincecum giving up 4 runs over 8 innings? That, by most measures, would be “keeping your team in the game”, when most MLB teams score an average of 3.5-4.5 runs/game (with a large standard deviation). The only games a starter REALLY “loses” for his team in the NL are the ones where he gets absolutely shelled, say, 6-7 runs in a few innings; I bet the team on the wrong end of those sort of performances never wins.
What if the 3 games Carp had of “over 3 runs” he gave up 8 runs in each game, and the 8 where Lincecum gave up “over 3 runs”, he gave up 4 runs 5 times, 6 runs once, and 7 runs twice? Is Lincecum’s performance in those games so much worse?
And, given the average runs/9 inning in a Lincecum or Carp start is about 3.5, why not say “any game Lincecum or Carp pitches in which he gives up less than 2 runs is an likely win, so we should count those”? I bet Lincecum probably wins on that score. Does the figure change substantially when you ask how many games each pitcher had when they gave up 4 or more runs? Is a 6IP, 3ER game really that much better than a 7.2IP, 4ER game?
Also, Carpenter missed 4 games that Lincecum pitched. Given that you’re replacing him with a poor starter (let’s say, Thompson, PJ Walters, Wellemeyer, whoever – probably BELOW replacement-level) who is likely to give up more than 3 runs/start, shouldn’t you at least consider adding those missed games onto Carp’s total? What if he only pitched 10 games all year, and only gave up more than 3 runs once? Where do you draw the line on durability? My feeling is that durability is a BIG determinant in how good a pitcher is – Carp and Lince have had very similar years, but the 30 or so extra innings Tim’s pitched over Carpenter is pretty huge when you consider the fall-off from 30 Carpenter innings to 30 (say) Brad Thompson-and-assorted-long-men innings. I really feel you have to give a lot of credit to Lincecum (or, conversely, a lot of harm to Carp) because of that.
It’s an inventive argument and there is certainly merit to it but I feel it’s a little bit weak.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 30, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Taking the discussion as simply that - a discussion
The arbitrary number is simply a starting point. I was just trying to pump out something before I left work yesterday. As for the breakdown of starts, Lincecum had 5 games w/4 runs and 3 w/5 runs; Carpenter had a 4, a 6, and a 7. The Giants were 2-6 in those 8 games (1-6, 7-5, 6-10, 3-4, 2-4, 6-8, 8-5, 2-6); the Cardinals were 1-2 in their 3 games (6-4, 3-6, 2-9). While your example of 6-7 runs alowed being a “sure thing” is probably correct, I would take the odds on my bet of 4 or more. Either way, they sure as shit didn’t help the team win.
With regard to games of 2 runs or less, Tim was 12-2 in 18 games, Chris was 13-0 in 19 games (with fewer starts).
Slight nitpicking-point: “more than 3 runs” and “4 runs or more” are the same thing. I usually don’t like to voice my nitpickings (I can’t help but notice flaws internally), but it is a point of discussion and should be noted.
As for blaming Carpenter for the starts that he didn’t make, that’s perfectly fine; he didn’t pitch as many innings as Lincecum and should not be measured the same in that regard. But blaming him for the shitty performance of the scrubs that pitched in his stead is a little unfair. A counter argument to that would be: what if PJ Walters had pitched his ass off for 4 or more starts while Carp was on the DL, playing as well or better? Does he get the credit supplied by his stand-in? It obviously can’t work using the latter and therefore the former shouldn’t be valid either. Another point is that Carp missed 5 weeks and without it would more than likely have the same 33 starts that Adam has compiled. Do we ding Lincecum for the two starts that he missed? Do we give Wainwright a bonus because he was more durable and hence more valuable to the Cardinals? I don’t think so. Stick with the innings, the starts, what actually happened – not what might have happened.
The major gist of the discussion is that I think Tim Lincecum is a very fine pitcher and has a hell of a claim to the Cy Young award, maybe more than Carpenter. But there are plenty of points to which Carp can hang his candidacy, where he has a measurable advantage over his two challengers.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
As for blaming Carpenter for the starts that he didn’t make, that’s perfectly fine; he didn’t pitch as many innings as Lincecum and should not be measured the same in that regard. But blaming him for the shitty performance of the scrubs that pitched in his stead is a little unfair. A counter argument to that would be: what if PJ Walters had pitched his ass off for 4 or more starts while Carp was on the DL, playing as well or better? Does he get the credit supplied by his stand-in?
I see what you mean, but I’m not sure that’s generally valid. The fact is, if a starting pitcher is injured, 9 times out of 10 the guy replacing him is going to be a replacement-level starter – Walters, Thompson and Wellemeyer fall into this category, as an example of that, and the guys who started the year as the 6th and 7th Giants starters (Ryan Sadowski and Joe Martinez) fall into that category too, more or less. A replacement-level starter will have a FIP in the 5 region, and would usually therefore be expected to give up 4 runs or so per start.
Carpenter wouldn’t get the credit for PJ Walters pitching brilliantly in his stead because, realistically, that was very unlikely to happen – just as he shouldn’t really be unfairly PENALISDED for the fact that Walters was actually below replacement level. I’d say it’s probably fair to just assume that each start that a SP misses he’ll be replaced by a guy with a FIP of about 5, give or take. That way, you’re not penalising anyone for playing on a team with bad depth, or unfairly crediting anyone who happens to play on a team that has, say, Phil Hughes as its 6th SP.
Realistically, every game that Carpenter, Wainwright or Lincecum miss is going to be started by someone who’s liable to give up 4 runs/game (or slightly more, even) so it’s probably not unreasonable to add each “missed” start for each guy into your “games he helped turn into a loss” category.
I think we’re kind of arguing at cross-purposes in a way – I suppose the crux of what I’m saying is that durability for ace-level pitchers is pretty critical, and that hurts Carp a lot; those four games he didn’t start in comparison to Lincecum are as damaging (on average) as the games (5 of them) where Lincecum gave up 4 runs.
As for the breakdown of starts, Lincecum had 5 games w/4 runs and 3 w/5 runs; Carpenter had a 4, a 6, and a 7.
This is kinda relevant too. just picking some made-up figures totally out of my ass, and considering those games in isolation: Let’s assume that an average MLB team in an average game scores (also assuming perfect bullpens):
4 or more runs 50% of the time
5 or more runs 30% of the time
6 or more runs 20% of the time
7 or more runs 15% of the time
8 or more runs 10% of the time
Lincecum had 5 games where he gave his team a 30% shot of winning, and 3 games with a 20% shot of winning.
Carp had 1 game with 50% chance, 1 with a 15% chance and 1 with a 10% chance.
What does this mean? Hell, I don’t know. I pulled it all out of my ass. But in any case, Carp had the two worst starts, and hurt his team in those games more than Lincecum did in any of his.
In any case, I think the durability thing has pretty much excluded Carp. If he’s made 4 or 5 more starts, I think begins to become a lot closer.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
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