Interesting Volume Distributions

by jomfa on Sep 24, 2009 11:47 AM EDT Comment 13 comments

I wanted to see the Cardinals scoring versus their opponents to see how they were getting it done. Looking at average runs tends to allow for outliers to skew the measurement of an offense and honestly, I just like viewing the distributions more anyway.

Sorry for not knowing how to paste from Excel, but I thought sharing this with the community would make for interesting fodder while we wait for playoff baseball.

For the 2009 Season, the Cardinals volume of games scoring:

0-1 = 18
2-3 = 55
4-5 = 35
6-7 = 22
8-9 = 9
10+ = 14

Cardinals Opponents volume of games scoring:

0-1 = 37
2-3 = 45
4-5 = 29
6-7 = 25
8-9 = 9
10+ = 8

For April through June, the Cardinals volume of games scoring:

0-1 = 11
2-3 = 28
4-5 = 19
6-7 = 9
8-9 = 5
10+ = 7

Cardinals Opponents volume of games scoring:

0-1 = 16
2-3 = 22
4-5 = 13
6-7 = 16
8-9 = 6
10+ = 6

For July through Sep 23rd, the Cardinals volume of games scoring:

0-1 = 7
2-3 = 27
4-5 = 16
6-7 = 13
8-9 = 4
10+ = 7

Cardinals Opponents volume of games scoring:

0-1 = 21
2-3 = 23
4-5 = 16
6-7 = 9
8-9 = 3
10+ = 2

2 recs | Comment 13 comments

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Comments

Interesting

I wonder if some cool dude could plot this in some graphical form to make it easier to conceptualize?

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Sep 24, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

graphing

it’s the copying over to the Fan Post which is the part I don’t know how to do.

by jomfa on Sep 24, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Couldn't you just screenshot it, put it onto an image hosting site, and post it?

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Sep 24, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i could do it

and will maybe if i have the time in the near future.

nfltouchdown.com

find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams

by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 24, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

nothing better to do

This plot shows the distribution of scores for all games played to date. The heat map shows the joint distribution, with red being highest density and blue being lowest. The two bar graphs show the marginal distributions, i.e. the total runs scored (horizontal bars) and allowed (vertical bars).

I didn’t do the full plots again for the half-year splits, but I do have the marginals below (basically the same as the numbers in the original post).

The dominating feature for both plots to my eyes, is how often we have held teams to 0-1 runs compared to how rarely we have scored in that same bin.

Colby Rasmus nickname generator (as told by TLR)

by brackenthebox on Sep 24, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Awesome!

You’re right, it appears the biggest difference is between 0-1 run scored and allowed. Which is a way of showing how awesome our pitching (I guess pitching and defense, to be fair) has been. You’d think that a 0-1 run performance would be one of the less common outcomes given the average team’s runs per game. But we’ve managed to screw up the bell curve in that department.

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Sep 24, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cool stuff

by vivaelpujols on Sep 24, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the decline in the 6-7 run stack from the first half to the second half

is a phenomenon I am labeling “the wellemeyer effect.”

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Sep 25, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by Valatan on Sep 28, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was told this would be interesting!

I’m just confused.

"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon

by Alxfritz on Sep 28, 2009 8:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs