Rasmus' power potential

maybe... dropping all that weight will affect that?

also, your tag says “Billy Butler”.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Sep 23, 2009 8:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah he referenced Billy Butler so when the tag script ran it created that one

"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."

by StLHugo on Sep 23, 2009 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah fixed the dumb auto tagging script

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Sep 23, 2009 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the machines are out to get us!

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Sep 23, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

good contact

While Colby has an 18.8% LD rate (compares to Soriano, Utley, Sandoval, Rollins and yes Butler) his HR/FB rates is <10% and of those I just named only Rollins has a lower rate than Colby. I think Colby’s problem is “centering” the ball or really just making good clean contact. He puts the ball in play alot but it seems alot of his ground balls and fly balls are weak ones.

"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."

by StLHugo on Sep 23, 2009 8:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

But considering when he does center the ball

It goes farther than most everyone, it would seem to follow that when he doesn’t quite hit it 100% that he should be hitting it harder than most when they don’t hit it 100% as well. The fact that he has 8 No Doubters means he obviously can center the ball and I can’t come up with a good explanation as to why he would have a lower proportion of “just misses” that would still end up with hard contact.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Sep 23, 2009 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Random variation

I can’t come up with a good explanation

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Sep 23, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Felix Jose

also comes to mind. I referenced him in an earlier thread – a guy who really crushed some long homers – yet just didn’t seem to hit that many of them.

Obviously Colby’s minor league track record indicates that he’s got the potential. Sixteen big league homers is impressive for someone of his age getting inconsistent playing time. Plus he’s being moved around in the lineup a lot – and being asked to do different things by the coaches as a result.

Bottom line: his power potential is exciting.

Imerman Angels 1on1 Cancer Support - ask me more if someone you know is fighting cancer.

by airhad on Sep 23, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is very, very interesting.

His average home run distance is in the top 20 in the league, yet his HR/FB% is just inside the top 100.

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Sep 23, 2009 11:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

However

his average home run smooooooothness leads the majors.

by Andyfantastic on Sep 23, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he'd also be tied for 21st

in FB%, overall, which is a good thing, I think. He’ll have a lower BABIP, but fewer GIDP’s and more HR’s once his body develops.

League average HR/FB % among qualified players was 11.78%, FWIW. To increase his HR/FB to league average, Colby would have needed to have hit 3 more HR’s so far.

it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie

by SleepyCA on Sep 23, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm not quite sure if you are just looking at sheer numbers?

but if you are, or even if you’re not, you have to take into consideration playing time. colby (unfortunately) doesn’t play everyday, sometimes only playing 5/7 games while giving two of them to ankiel.

nfltouchdown.com

find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams

by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 23, 2009 12:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the wall won.

Colby Rasmus is 5th in games started at 106, 959.1 innings.
Rick Ankiel has started 87 games, 768.2 innings.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Sep 23, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

to compare

Ludwick has started 114 games, with 1016.2 innings.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Sep 23, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so he will end up starting almost exactly 5/7 of the teams' games

rick ankiel has started way too many games. i know some were at the expense of ludwick, but that’s a disgusting statistic. ankiel has gotten way too many starts and way too many innings.

if you take colby’s 16 home runs, assume he’s going to 2 more this season, and average that out over say 6/7 of the season next year (that’s another 23 starts), that averages out to 23 home runs, or five more over the course of the season. i’d have to think his power is only going to improve as well, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to me if he went out and hit 32 next year.

nfltouchdown.com

find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams

by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 23, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, but my point is that none of our outfielders are starting all the games.

Ludwick has the most playing time of all the outfield. Only Albert, Yadier, and Skip have more playing time.

Also even if they were fudging about Colby’s injuries some of the time, they weren’t doing it all the time. Colby lost time to legit health concerns, and he dropped a lot of weight because of that.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Sep 23, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's fine

i’m not arguing about that, just speculating about how his numbers would turn out if he consistently started for an entire season. also (at least since we got ‘em), i’m pretty sure holliday has played the most out of any outfielder, i believe making an appearance in every game and not starting only one of those.

nfltouchdown.com

find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams

by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 23, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's why I included the total innings

If the outfielders sat on the bench today, Colby would have played 65% of the time. Ludwick played just under 70% of the time. Ankiel would be at 52%. I.e. Ludwick is this season’s benchmark for “playing regularly” and when you figure this is Colby’s first year playing a full major league season, it’s not as unreasonable as it looks.

As much as suspicions run that Ankiel “took away playing time” from Colby, that isn’t the case — probably only because of the injury, and not for lack of trying from TLR. I’m just saying that Colby’s playing time was likely cut down by his injuries, which was not something anyone foresaw.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Sep 23, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so you don't think ankiel has played too much this year?

you don’t think he’s taking innings away from colby or ludwick at all? because him starting 87 games (more than half), suggests he’s doing a little more than spelling raz during his injuries or giving ludwick/rasmus a day off.

nfltouchdown.com

find me under the fan voices section for the st. louis rams

by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 23, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no, I'm just saying as much as we want to say it's causation

I’ve yet to see more than correlation. in my gut I know that’s exactly the case, but it doesn’t merit the hyperbole that I and others have tossed around.

in other words, you’d have to prove that Ank is taking away from Ludwick to make me buy that he’s eating it up from Rasmus, because Ras only has a little less playing time than him. (even more plausible is that Chris Duncan was the one stealing everyone’s PA’s, since Ras was played at every outfield position.)

also, that it’s the reason instead of TLR’s well-documented habit of playing the splits. Holliday’s splits on almost EVERY team are off the charts (I check at least once a series), so he gets consistent playing time.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Sep 23, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and hazel goes and answers it.

now that makes sense to me.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Sep 23, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ludwick spent time on the DL

give him those 15 games back, and your numbers look quite different.

it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie

by SleepyCA on Sep 23, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ludwick was sitting REGULARLY at the start of the year.

He was sitting at least twice a week for the first couple of months, and he was on the DL for a while.

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Sep 24, 2009 6:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, Ludwick was sitting during the early part of the year,

for Dunkiel. His “benchmark” playing time is not the same as most starting outfielders. He’s been around as valuable as Nick Markakis and Cody Ross, yet he’s had 100-150 PAs less than them, meaning the playing time discrepancy has lost us as much as half a win.

Colby has been more valuable than Kosuke Fukudome and Jacoby Ellsbury, yet he’s only tallied 480 PAs, 90-150 less than Kosuke and Jacoby.

Ankiel has somehow gotten 380 PAs and has posted similar value to defensive replacement DeWayne Wise and Reed Johnson (who’s been on the DL for most of the season).

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Sep 23, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is a very informative post.

Which is why it is so depressing.

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Sep 24, 2009 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You can't just ignore the fact ....

that Rasmus has had a great many health issues this year. If you want to talk about his playing time, then you have to at least acknowledge the fact that the kid had GI tract issues that caused him to lose a significant amount of weight over the year. In addition, he’s had problems with his heel that have kept him out of a significant number of games.

I do believe that Rasmus has lost some playing time due to LaRussa’s whims, but before you tirade you need to at least look at all of the facts involved.

by etp_stl on Sep 23, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unless Colby has a more severe condition than reported,

his GI problems cannot possibly be the problem. If one nexium prescription three months ago would have given Colby 100 more PAs, then our medical staff really does need to be fired.

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Sep 23, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was evidently more serious than you seem to believe.

He had to change both his eating and workout habits, and he lost a significant amount of weight during the dog-days of July and August. That seems to be more than just acid reflux, and it seems to have affected his play. Coupled with his persistent heel problems, those health issues have affected his playing time. The effects have been directly for recouperation and indirectly due to ineffectiveness at the plate.

Any argument about his playing time that doesn’t at least acknowledge these issues is based on subjective reasoning.

by etp_stl on Sep 23, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reportedly, he had gastritis stemming from a hiatal hernia.

He was never put on the DL, and even before and well after his gastritis cleared up he was benched for a few games a week.

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Sep 24, 2009 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's been quoted previously as saying he's ready

the same night TLR is quoted as saying he’s injured.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Sep 24, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How often have you ever heard ...

a player say he wasn’t ready to go? The biggest issue I’ve had with LaRussa’s handling of injuries in the last few years is his propensity to play players that clearly are too injured to perform, and then he later blames the player for saying they were ready to go.

This is a cop-out from a manager, IMO. I think it is an important part of the manager’s job to decide which players give the team the best opportunity to win, and a big part of that is boo-boo status.

by etp_stl on Sep 25, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's true.

He wasn’t put on the DL, but he lost a significant weight during that time. He lost his power, and he seemed to give away a significant number of at bats when he did play.

I don’t see, with this team’s history, how anybody can associate a player’s time on the DL with their injury/health status. This team has hidden player injuries without putting the player on the DL quite often in the last few years, so I can’t use that as any kind of measuring stick to understand the extent of a player’s ability to perform.

by etp_stl on Sep 25, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it is ironic

that the chief complaint was not treating players’ injuries seriously, and now that they seem to be doing so, they get yelled at for lack of playing time for favorite players.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Sep 25, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem is the previous precedents.

There are two opinions that seemed to have been proven over the last several years of this current management regime.

1) The manager relies too heavily on the player’s opinion of when they can play.
2) The manager does not willingly put young players in positions of responsibility.

So, it is somewhat reasonable to expect some to believe that the only factor involved in Rasmus’ playing time is the latter of those two points. Couple that with LaRussa’s obvious man-crushes on Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan, and you have the basis for an all-out outrage.

I still think the health issues played a significant part in Rasmus’ playing time, but I doubt that he would be benched if he were a 5-year vet, either.

by etp_stl on Sep 28, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I expect 30+ too

I’d think in the next 2-3 years it’s reasonable to expect something along those lines. When you look at the power he has shown at an early age, both this year and (especially) his age 20 season in AA, it is really hard to put a ceiling on where his power potential may lie. Mainly because we are still several years away from the typical power peak.

Right now, only Pujols and Medwick have ever hit more homers for the Cards at 22 years or younger. If Rasmus hits 3 more he passes Medwick. So relative to age, he is showing a pretty extraordinary amount of power as is. Regarding his 2007 season, I’d love to know who else has put up comparable power numbers at that age and level but I don’t really know a good place to filter through to get to that. Needless to say, I suspect it is pretty select company as well.

You add in some of the support that you mention,as well as his tough year health wise, and I think we have a fantastic power hitter in Rasmus. What makes him even more promising, of course, is his plus defense at a premium position. He’s not just a bopper that you stick in a corner fielding position and hold your breath when a ball is hit to him. He is complete, tools wise.

by Merry CRasmus on Sep 23, 2009 5:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

couldn't find MiL stats for this

but here’s the all time leaders for HRs by a 20-year-old

1. Mel Ott 42 1929
2. Frank Robinson 38 1956
3. Alex Rodriguez 36 1996
4. Tony Conigliaro 32 1965
5. Ted Williams 31 1939
6. Al Kaline 27 1955
7. Orlando Cepeda 25 1958
Eddie Mathews 25 1952
9. Bob Horner 23 1978
Mickey Mantle 23 1952

per b-r.com

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Sep 24, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i hope one day he grows up to become the second coming of Hollywood

that would be EPIC

pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels

by gdm426 on Sep 23, 2009 6:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If he ever puts up 7-8 Win seasons

That’d be epically epic

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Sep 24, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Edmonds prime offensive years

are so easy to forget with the flashy defense. He was a beast.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Sep 24, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's age and health issues.

I believe that the statistics you are quoting will translate into very good power numbers in the future. I’m hoping his injury issues will be put behind him moving forward.

He’s going to have to learn to hit LHP, but it seems that is a team trait. I understand that LH hitters usually have some trouble with LHP, but the struggles with this team over the last 3 years are reaching epic proportions. I personally think the coddling that LaRussa provides causes the issues that these young LH hitters seem to have with LHP. Confidence breeds success, and I believe that LaRussa has planted a seed in the minds of these young LH hitters that makes them doubt their own abilities to hit LHP.

by etp_stl on Sep 23, 2009 7:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I tend to agree

Rasmus hit lefties well in the minors and should start every day in CF next year. I think it arguably helps that our other possible CF options (Jay, Ankiel (who probably won’t be back next year), Schu) are predominantly left-handed, so hopefully he’ll get only one day off a week in 2010.

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Sep 24, 2009 6:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just needs to learn to hit Lefties and I will be ecstatic :)

"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain

by Taskmaster on Sep 23, 2009 9:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If I were to guess

he’ll be a 25 home run per year average guy… with his amazing defense, a very valuable player

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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 23, 2009 11:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can only imagine it has something to do with convection currents.

There’s a fire burning in the outfield, and that’s got to generate a lot of heat.

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Sep 24, 2009 6:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So if you bury a six pack underneath Colby

He will suck the heat from it and—boom!—ice cold beer. I have it on good authority that this is how science works, and I won’t accept any arguments to the contrary that involve those so-called “laws of physics”.

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Sep 24, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs