FanPost

Pujols Triple Crown Redux

I raised this issue several weeks ago, and things have gradually become more interesting. Can Albert somehow find a way to grind out enough RBIs, HRs, and a high enough BA to win the ever-elusive triple crown? We are definitely in the home stretch of the season, and I'm come to the conclusion it remains difficult but possible. Consider Albert vs. the closest competition (as of 22 September):

RBI:
Pujols - 128
Fielder - 128
Howard - 123

A dead heat at the moment. Albert has 11 games left, Prince 12. Their competition strength is about equal too (though the Brewers do have to play the Phillies, and the Cardinals get the Reds). And they do get to play each other. I've got to think that the pitching staff and TLR would try to lock Fielder down if Albert is within sniffing distance of the Triple Crown. SMALL EDGE TO PUJOLS.

HR:
Pujols - 47
Reynolds - 43
Howard - 41

Albert has the biggest edge here. Reynolds could put on a surge, but I think with the number of games left, four home runs is a big gap to overcome. Howard has the ability to stack home runs too (that's pretty much all he hits) but again, time is too short. LARGE EDGE TO PUJOLS.

BA:
Ramirez - .352
Pujols - .329
Sandoval - .323

Ah yes, easily the hardest of the three categories for Albert to beat. Ramirez has been incredibly dominant all season, and that .352 average looks mighty shiny. BUT, I am highly encouraged by developments in the past ten days. If you look at Ramirez's stats, he has slid eight percentage points in that period, with only one multi-hit game to speak of. Florida has 12 games left. If he maintains that rate of slide, he could finish in the neighborhood of .344. The question is, can Albert surge his way to that mark? He has finished with seasonal averages above this mark twice already (.357 in 2008, .359 in 2003). The trick is, it would take a pretty good clip to get there, my junior high math suggests that if he averages 4 plate appearances the rest of the way, then he needs 24 hits or a .545 average to overcome the deficit. SMALL EDGE TO RAMIREZ

Bottom Line - can he do it? My heart says yes, my head says no. It would be outstanding to see a triple-crown winner, and Albert may someday still do it (I think his window could close though, within the next 3-5 years). But it just won't be this year. Nuts.